Welcome to the VRA Investing Podcast, where Kip Herriage brings you expert insights on navigating today's dynamic market landscape. In this episode, Kip Herriage explains the power behind the ongoing bull market, sharing why he believes we're witnessing a generational opportunity for wealth creation that could last well into the 2030s. He breaks down the current market trends—from the surge in interest-rate sensitive stocks and the upcoming SpaceX IPO, to high-conviction plays in gold, silver, and mining sectors. You'll also hear Kip Herridge's strategic advice on building and managing long-term portfolios, handling flatlining stocks, and why patience—paired with dollar cost averaging—remains a key to investing success. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, this episode is packed with practical takeaways to help you capitalize on today's market momentum.

Kip Herriage [00:00:00]:
Foreign. Don’t look back. The market is closed. Good Friday afternoon everyone. Kip Herridge here with the daily Variant Investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Hope your weekend was fantastic as well. Look, if you’re bullish and if you’re invested in the markets, even if, even if some of your stocks aren’t doing what you wish they could, I think today’s podcast will help you with that because that is happening.

We are seeing a really tight focus on specific areas that are really moving forward. But it’s, the breadth is still good. We’re still seeing widespread growth and I think again if you’re with us here, you know that our, our focus at the beginning of the year, from the beginning of the year has been on an interest rate sensitive approach. That strategy actually did really poorly. We still still beat the markets, but didn’t do what it should have done during the war for the obvious reasons. We’ll talk about those today. That’s oil prices, that’s the US dollar and of course inflation that comes with it. And so that really affected our interest rate sensitive names.

And folks, I tell you, I have that, that, that, that, that sixth sense, right, the Spidey sense that something’s about to happen here. I think we saw a, a bit of a glimpse of it today in the, in, in precious metals and miners. Spend a few minutes on that. Take it out. This is a major theme. This is a, this is a high confidence call and it is starting to play out already. I want to spend a couple minutes on that. And also again to repeat this about a theme now for the last several days is that we believe this melt up that we’re experiencing is, and it purely, it truly is that nine straight weeks up now for the broad market, that’s SPF 100.

Nine straight weeks higher. That hasn’t happened. It didn’t happen a lot. It did happen in 2023, but it’s fairly rare. By the way, the, the, the analytics behind that are extraordinarily bullish going out a year later. So we had that as well. But we, our view has been that the SpaceX IPO is a very big deal. Every investors know that it’s a big deal.

Biggest IPO in history. It’s space, it’s Elon Musk has got everything that you, that you really look for in a sexy story. Well, that happens on June 12th. And our call all week has been that this market move higher, it really is a melting move higher is going to continue into that ipo. This is kind of how the markets operate. And so it, I think that this is a terrible time to be bearish and I kind of almost have sympathy for the perma bears out there. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. I legitimately don’t know how they get up in the morning when you’re always bearish.

First of all, the markets go up roughly 70% of the time. So right there being a bull, you’re, you’re, you’re, you know, you’re, you’re already in the green. You’re likely going to win. But why would you want to be a permanent bear? And so I do have a little sympathy for them, but again, they don’t, they don’t make it easy because they, they have a real negativity about them and even when things are going great as they are now, they can’t see it. And folks, I, look, I, I put this out on, on Twitter here a little bit earlier. I’m just going to read it to you. I’ve never said it quite like this but, but it is exactly how I feel. And I think if you’ve been with us a while, you’ll recognize this.

My call remains that there’s not a personal life that’s witnessed a bull market like the one we’ve entered. From publishing my fourth book, the Big Bribe in 2022, I said this will be a generational market that will last well into the 2000 and 30s, which has me more bullish than at any point in my 41 year career. If you’ve been with us a while, you’ll probably recognize that I have been saying that. Stay locked in folks. Wealth creation is going to occur at a level never before seen and we have exactly the right president for it at exactly the right time. I mean every one of those words. I think that’s exactly what’s happening here. And I think that again, our goal now since we wrote the book is to have everyone like we want you locked in with this.

[00:04:02]:
Look, we don’t, we don’t make rapid change to the portfolio again. Through entire year our portfolio has been primarily interest rate sensitive. So we don’t flip from theme to theme or from hot stock to hot stock. I during dot com, I just had this conversation this morning with, with Ryan who I talked about a little yesterday on the show, a good friend, long term member here with us that manages a half a billion dollars and we’re in complete agreement.com was magical in a lot of ways. In other ways it was not great because it did Encourage investors to flip around from hot stock to hot stock. That was not the winning strategy. Because if you’re flipping from thing to thing that you don’t really know and understand, right, either the sector or the specific company, you’re most likely going to get wind up getting yourself hurt. You know, getting a lot of questions now about.

About space ETFs. By the way, I’ve got a reply I’ve got to get out just after this podcast about this. And it’s great questions. Look, it’s a hot sector. We’ve looked into it. I don’t know how to analyze space. I just don’t know the group. And I think I’d be doing people disservice all of a sudden.

I pretended that I did. I don’t. I know SpaceX. I know I’m an investor in SpaceX. I know that likely because they will probably become one company at some point within about the next year that SpaceX and Tesla, that I’ll learn a lot more about it. I don’t know how to value these companies. And that’s the point I’m trying to make. I think that.

And again, if this is what your fort. Everyone’s got their own strength. If this is your forte, be your quick study or you, you just have broad knowledge about so many different areas. You can analyze these and make a good judgment call. I’m not trying to talk you out of it, but I think for the average investor, and that’s who I am, I’m an average investor that learned how repeating patterns worked. And over 40 years I’ve learned what works for me. And I try to stay in my lane. By and large, that’s what works for me.

Kip Herriage [00:06:04]:
You know, whatever works for you. But I think that, I think the theme for most investors that’s going to make us the most money over this, however long it runs. I mean, this bull market started in 2022. We think it runs well into the 2000-30s. So we’re looking at, we’re looking at a. At least, I think at least a decade ago. I think it’s going the mid-30s and it may not stop there. That’s.

That’s how special this bull market and this economic growth cycle because of AI and innovation is going to be. But I think the theme that’s going to work for most investors is to build your portfolio and stick with it. Hey, if something changes, if a company fires a CEO all of a sudden, they put up a couple of disappointing quarters. You know, whatever, whatever failure looks like to you or the stock just is dead money. Right? We have a couple of those and I look at them and it drives me crazy because the last thing you want to own in a multiple market are stocks that are flatlining. Right. We own GameStop. Right? So GameStop is of course a meme stock.

[00:07:14]:
It’s got a very loyal shareholder base. You know that if you’ve ever tried to cross these people in social media, they will attack you and the big believers in Ryan Cohen, etc. Well, we only bought GameStop because we’d had success in two other meme stocks. We had success in AMC. We made about 400% in AMC in stock and options and then we made 100% in Trump media. And so I got to know GameStop because of our entry into that area. Those are trades. I kind of thought this would be a good trade.

I thought it might be short term. It now has turned into a long term investment. But I’ve gotten to know the company. I believe I know what Ryan Cohen is building here. And he’s got a cash machine. You know, again, the market cap’s 11 billion. They got 9 billion in cash. He understands financial engineering.

That’s one of our megatrends during this bull market from the big bribe is financial engineering. It’s driving so much of what we’re seeing today. And I believe that Cohen’s going to pull this off. So what I also know, because I’ve had this happen to me before. I’m sure you have too. The day that I say we’re going to sell GameStop, the very next day the stock will double. Right? I’ve just seen it happen before. I’m a little paranoid because of it.

That has happened to me on several occasions. So I’m giving it a long leash and I’m comfortable with that because I believe that when Cohen makes his next big move, I think the stock is going to 50. The stock right now is like 22, close to actually 2125. I think the stock’s going to 50 this year. And then when it really breaks out, I think this is $100 stock. I think it’s going to grow into its cash, if I’m being honest. And grow into what the again, the financial engineering that Ryan Cohen’s doing because no one’s doing what he’s doing. I mean, he kind of got his idea from, from strategy.

You know, it was Microstrategy, now it’s just strategy and what they’re doing with Bitcoin. So that’s where he got his idea to use These zero coupon convertible bonds. And that’s working for him. But, but anyway, the point I’m trying to make is I have no problem being a long term investor and I can live with the stock that is flatlining. But what I have to know is that progress is happening. Because if the, the second I start to think progress is, is, is changing or it’s not taking place or the fundamentals of the story or the, or the, the, the financials, et cetera are, are changing, then I want to exit that. Because in this kind of a bull market, while we don’t want to flip around, I don’t want to anyway, right. That’s just not our investing style.

I do want to be in stocks that have the opportunity to succeed in this kind of a bull market. And I think that that’s worked for us for, you know, for 23 years here. That’s been our approach, kind of the Peter lynch school of investing. And so again, but it does make certain stretches of the market more difficult where you have to watch maybe again, interest rate sensitive. That’s been our whole theme. Well, that group is that that whole play is once the war started, oil up, right? Rates up, inflation up. Well, that’s not an interest rate sensitive portfolio. But our belief was that the war was not going to be long run.

[00:10:28]:
It was not going to be long term. Over a month ago we said that Trump was, we believe he had pivoted, that the war is behind him and that he has pivoted to the future. And that is what’s happened here. And now what are we seeing? We share the charts with you this morning. These three key charts. If you’re an interest rate sensitive investor, these three key key charts are what you want to pay attention to. And they are again US dollar. They’re of course the 10 year, 10 year note.

And, and the what is oil, of course, oil. So let me just explain those to you real quickly and how we see this right now. First of all, oil, oil peaked at 119. It’s had a series of lower highs. And again, our key for one of the keys for us is that futures, December futures right now are at $78, right? Well, West Texas Intermediate right now is at what, 88. I believe today’s where it’s closed. I’ll cover that more in a moment. But the futures market’s telling you oil prices are going lower again if the war is over.

I think we all know that when Trump puts his, puts his mind to something, he generally speaking succeeds. Trump wants gas prices down and he wants interest rates down. And with the midterms coming up again, that gave us confidence in this approach. So again with oil, we see it going lower. Interest rates, the 10 year peaked as Trump was being inaugurated at 4.8% that very week. We said that we thought the highs were in for rates and that we’d see the employment lower. And that’s exactly what happened. Right.

And then of course again the war started. Now all of a sudden the 10 years back to 4.7%. That was last week, by the way. And now, now we’re going lower again, 10 year close down again today on the yield basis to down to 4.45%. So it’s already starting to move in the right direction with a little bit of velocity. We think that’s going to pick up again for an interest rate sensitive portfolio of oil going down, rates going down and the dollar, this is the chart that I think really matters for a lot of reasons, but also applies to inflation and rates. The dollar peaked again the week that Trump got inaugurated. And if you look at it, it is a hideous chart.

Like it, based on this chart, there is no way you want to own the dollar as a currency, as a currency trader investor, I would not buy this. It’s in a severe downtrend. It just bounced up against a triple top formation where it failed immediately and now it’s falling back below the 200 day. And I believe I again had it headed lower, back to new lows. So it’s those three, along with the fact that again, we have Trump as president, we know what he wants now he’s got his own fetch here. Again, it gives us a high confidence in this call and in that kind of environment, we want to own interest rate sensitive. So what we’ve been doing is acquiring this. We’ve been building our positions, not always easy to do when they’re going against you, but again, with a high confidence call because we did our homework, we made the call.

[00:13:31]:
I believe that it’s exactly the right call. And now it’s time to get paid. This is our key point now. It’s time that we get paid for our patients. And folks, that started to actually, it started last week. We’ve been pounding the table on gold, silver, the miners, especially the miners. That’s where the leverage is. And we saw some really, really interesting trading this week.

Lower opens and stronger closes, like lower open every day this week. And then here came the buyers. That’s a tell. All right. And again, because look, GDX a go minor ETF A and gold just both bounced off the 200 day. Here, here is a group that’s in one of its strongest bull markets in history and that, that, that is what last year looked like. It was a fantastic year. It was our number one sector for the year.

Wound up being up 154% of the year. It was a good call but and, and that’s the primary trend. Remember we want to invest in the primary trend as the counter trend rallies take place and then add to our positions we when the primary trend’s about to take over again. And that’s what I’m telling you today. Again it’s not a new call for us. This has been our call for a strong call over the last week. I think that gold and silver, all the charts tell you the same thing. The primary trend is higher and the counter trend bearish moves have now worn out their welcome.

And now with gold with the, excuse me the dollar and with rates at moving lower and the dollar moving lower all three of these right. These are the reasons that this group Gold Silver Miners. This, this is, these are the exact reasons this group was hit in the first place. It’s the only thing that interrupted their bull market. So we’re calling for our. My, one of my favorite words gargantuan move higher is going to take place in this group. I think it started this week. We saw a couple of good updates again we opened down today over 1% for GDX Gold Miner ETF finished up 2.6%.

Maybe more importantly and I think it is more important the junior gold miner ETF GDXJ today was up 3.9%. Also open, lower right weak open, strong closes. That’s what you want to see and go also today was up over 1% today. So I think, I think I, I said it yesterday. We are positioned pretty much exactly like I’d like to be positioned again. We have a couple stocks I’m not real happy with but I know the management teams right. We, we have conversations with them. I have no problem being patient but so I feel good about them but I think with our specifically with our interest rate sensitive names.

Okay. And, and that is of course what we’re invested in. That is semi tech, small caps, gold Silver miners housing and our two cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Tao. I love the way we’re positioned and of course physical gold and silver and I think our patience is really going to pay off. And I’m calling a, a gargantuan move higher is coming because this is the, these are the tells you look for. I’m about to tell you, okay, if you’ve been with us a while, you know that we follow the semis to the S P500. That’s the relative strength chart that really matters most to us. When you’re looking just for a pure directional tell for the broad market.

When the semites are leading higher as they’ve been doing now for a long time for actually. Exactly. From the April 7th tariff media lows of last year, the semis have been leading higher. That’s that tells you right there. If you’re looking for one reason to stay along stocks, that’s that reason semi is leading. We see we have the same relative strength situation in precious metals and miners. Number one, when the miners are leading gold higher, you absolutely want to own this group. That’s a tell that the group is going higher.

What are the miners doing? They’ve been leading higher during the entirety of this bull market. Right. That’s number one. Number two, when gdxj, when the junior gold miners are leading the senior gold miners higher. That’s another bullish tell. And again, that’s what we had exactly today. Gold up 1%. GDX up 2.6%.

GDXJ up 3.8%. Again, this is textbook bull market action for this group. I believe that they, they were oversold indiscriminately during the war. I think that the big thing that’s going to happen now, and I, and I said this on the podcast yesterday and I wrote up this morning again, every now and then I make a call and I go, you know what? That’s the, that’s, that’s it. That’s the call. Here’s what’s about to happen. I think it already started. I think it started this week and it’s going to pick up steam next week.

[00:18:04]:
Mark my words on this. Again, high confidence call. I believe that the algorithms which control so much a short term trading in these markets today, and you can see it right, you can see it left and right. When a group gets hit quickly and has like two or three bad days, it’s algorithmic trading. Same thing with the broad market. Same thing with various sectors. They’re getting more and more powerful because more and more of these are being used, especially in the world of AI where speed and velocity of being able to trade really matters. Well, that’s good and bad for us.

It gives us an opportunity. The algorithms, when the war started, the algorithms flipped. They flipped on gold, silver and the miners, we see it clearly in the charts. That’s the tell, right? Well okay, we’re gonna have a war. Oil prices going up, rates are going up, sell gold, silver miners. And you know we saw it coming, we talked about it, we’ve talked about it a lot. Our call was patience. I mean this is the primary trends higher.

The war is going to be a counter trend situation. We’re going to use that weakness to continue adding to our positions which is exactly what we’ve done. And it’s given us some great buying opportunities. We’ve added to our positions in each of these. Right. Put some new ones on as well. So I think that what’s going to happen next week and again I think it already started this week. We saw it today again lower open and then boom.

Like shot out of a cannon. All of a sudden GDX was up 1%. Like that happened in five minutes. Right. That’s algorithmic trading. And so I think that now that some algorithms, some algorithm, algorithmic traders have begun to initiate exposure to this group again. I mean it makes sense. The war’s ending.

Right. Go back to the things that were going up before. Well, I think next week we’re going to see real velocity with this move. Because if you, if you follow the miners in this group as long as we have, certainly as long as I have, then you know, just like small caps. When this group moves, it freaking moves. And so I think that next week we’re going to see velocity of this group. I believe next week GDX will be up 8 to 10% just next week on its way back to all time highs. GDX, the 52 week high is 117.

It’s 88, 89 today. Right. So we have a long way to go just to get back to all time highs and then further higher still because this is the bull market. That’s going to take gold to 15,000, right? 45, 4600. Now it’s going to take gold to 15,000 and silver to at least 300. I frankly I think, I think they’ll both be on the low side but, but again that’s by 2030. So we think this move. Ed Yardini, I think I covered this yesterday.

Ed Yardini still has a year in estimate. He’s pretty good work. Still has a 50 year in estimate of 50 500, 5500 for gold. I think 6,000 plus. He’s he, he believes longer term in a decade target for him is 10,000 gold again we think 15,000 and but if that’s right, if that’s anywhere close to being right then we will make absolute fortunes in these miners. And if you know what we’re invested in here, you know we have two junior miners and again junior miners are leading. We saw it today in our stocks, didn’t we? Vista and Snow Line. Okay, they’re the two.

Snow line today was up 4.6%. Vista Gold up 3.9% again outperforming the indexes. And because we know these companies so well, it’s no secret, you know we talked, we talked to some Scott Bertol and Fred Ernst the CEO of both companies on a regular basis that we touch base at least once a month. You know, sometimes more often. I, I can tell you that I believe strongly that both of these companies will be acquired. I don’t think near term. I think the first one to be acquired will be Vista Gold. Right.

They’re now in the process of getting ready to, to put their mind in production. This is a long process, 18 month process. But now they’re spending the money, they’re hiring the team. What that’s really going to do for Vista Gold that’s going to cause serious buyers, you know, mid sized, mid, mid, mid to senior majors. Right. That’s going to force them to make a decision and they’re going to come in and make an offer for Vista Gold. And I think at some point in the next couple of years I believe Vista Gold will be bought out probably in the $10 range. I wish they wouldn’t because the stock can go so much higher.

It’s a 5 million plus ounce deposit. Probably 8 to 10 million ounces actually. That’s, that’s what it’s going to be. But anyway I think that they’re going to be bought out probably sooner than Snow Line. Snow Line I believe will be bought out sometime in the next four years or so. This is a very talented young team. They put their whole life into this thing. Scott Bertol was prospecting the Yukon with his father when he was a child.

[00:22:51]:
It is just an amazing story and I love stories like that. You know a father son team. I’ve been doing it together for all these years. Scott is unbelievably impressive. Right. He’s got like three advanced degrees at all the best universities. You know in this area of mining and geology and really, really any on top of that he’s just a great human being. He is cares about the environment.

Right. He’s got a great team around him. There’s nothing about this play that we don’t like at the fact they’ve got at least 8 million ounces of gold already proved up. That number is probably going to be 15 million at some point in the next 12, 18 months. A million acres, right. And they’ve only explored what I think it’s 6%, 6% of the million acres or equivalent. They call them something else in Canada. Hectares.

Right. But again, this is when we want to be. That’s why we use dollar cost averaging every month in our 10 baggers. We want to keep building those positions. This is a Peter lynch thing, you know, he’s like most of the stocks that I, that I buy, they do nothing for the first three, four years. I don’t know why that is. He says, you know, One up on Wall street, by the way, looking for a great book to read. Peter Lynch One up on Wall street is a, is a highly recommended book.

I need to go back and read it again actually. But I’ve got a lot of it memorized again, it just. His style always matched my personality. Right. And so you like to find people that are really successful that match your style and your personality. Peter lynch always believed in buying what you know, you know, buy what you know, buy what you love because you’re already interested in it. You know, now you, when you buy, you’re doubly interested because you got your money in it. Your money in it, your wallet’s in it, your heart’s in it, right? So I think that that is our approach with, with doing this with, with 10 baggers, you know, it’s, it’s tough watching them stay flat, right? I mean look, we’ve got combined in these two Snowline and Vista Go.

We’re up I think 800 something percent in the two of them, you know, so it’s not that we haven’t done well, but they have flatlined. Well, they went down at the war. What am I talking about? He went down during the war, as you expect, right? But, but by, by, by the stocks not, not performing as well as they had been. That gives us an opportunity to buy them on the cheap and to do it every month. So when they take off, you have two advantages here. Number one, you, you own a lot more of that stock because you’ve been buying it every month. And when you dollar cost average every month, you stop caring about the stock price because look, I don’t know about you, but when I put new money to work, I kind of want to buy, I want to buy something cheap, right? I want to buy it cheaper but when you use dollar cost averaging, emotions no longer matter. They’re no longer part of the investment equation and you’re just buying every month on a set day, add to your positions.

[00:25:43]:
I’m telling you it’s a life changing investment approach. Then when your stocks take off like we’ve been very fortunate to have a few of those here. A lot of you know my story about Ultra Petroleum, it got me addicted to, to growth stocks with Mark Bruner. You know, we were, I put my clients in at Oppenheimer at 15 cents a share. Nine years later it was $200 a share, $10,000 investment turned into $13 million. Right. So it’s hard not to be, it’s not, it’s hard not to be an addict after having experience like that. It was, it was just magical.

And I’ve always just had a passion for, you know, young management teams. Get to know them and again you can do that with small caps. You know, you pick up the phone, you get CEO gives you a cell phone number. Just give a call. By the way, when they stop taking my call is kind of when we move on, right? We have a handshake agreement that you know what you’re there for. I’m buying your stock. I help support stock price. Right.

So take my call with a call, right? You call me back at least when I leave a voicemail. And so, you know, I think that snow line is going to be acquired. I think it’s going to be very special price stocks 11 now I think the stock is going to be 80 to $100 when they’re acquired. A true 10 bagger. Plus we bought it at 360. So I think we’re going to do very well in that. But that’s really our approach and I’m saying all that to help maybe if you’re sitting here and you’ve got a stock or a few stocks that are just flatlining in a bull market that’s going parabolic. It is frustrating, right? But as long as you know what you own and have confidence in that investment.

[00:27:18]:
Like it’s like Tesla. Tesla today was down 1.4%. 435. Pretty much everything else is up today. I mean not everything. It actually the internals weren’t great today by the way. I’ll cover that more in a moment. But you get, you get the drift.

The market’s been going parabolic. I mean Tesla is up 30% in the last like month and a half. So it’s not like it hasn’t done well. But it’s been in a five year trading range and we’ve talked to that with you often here, that when this stock breaks out, and that’s 500 right. When this stock hits 500 and goes through 500, it’ll be like a knife, a hot knife through butter. Stock will be 600 in a heartbeat on this way much higher. And I think you know this by the way, Tesla is the most heavily shortest stock in the SP 500. Tell me that doesn’t make you salivate because again that means at some point the shorts you’re gonna have to cover and that adds fuel to the fire.

Right. And so the other thing about Tesla, that again is frustrating, not doing anything, blah blah, blah, that means every month you can add your positions on the cheap. And it’s exactly what I’ve been doing since the stock was $18 a share. Now pretty much every time I bought it since then it’s been at a higher price. But again this is, this is a company that we want to own through the merger, through ever what happens. This is stock you would own for the next decade. I do not care where the price is now. The lower it is, yes, it’s frustrating.

The lower it stays, the more I can buy cheap. And by the way, my dot, my, our dollar cost averaging here just happened this week. We added to our minor positions added to Tesla. I won’t give them all out here. It’s not fair to our subscribers. But that, that’s it. I add every month like I think it’s the 24th is the day that I add to positions and again pick your date that you want to. But I do think it’s important to have a, a monthly date where you just say, you know what, every, every month I’m going to put $2,000 or 5, whatever the amount is.

[00:29:14]:
Right. And add to your portfolio. It’s worked really well for us over the years and I think, I think it’ll, it’ll be a good successful approach. It removes the emotion investing which is something for me that’s very important. So again I think next week the algorithms really start coming back into this group and I think we’re going to have one next week. I think it’s going to be sensational for this group. Not that it’ll stop there but again we have a two week time frame in front of us. Well, I think this melt up in this basics IPO is going to happen.

We are going to take a close look on the day that that IPO takes place because you have Such a thing as called a blow off top. And while we’re not going to be selling any long term positions, you know, with your own portfolio you might go, you know what? I got big gains in this thing. Let me just, let me peel a little bit off like because this is a little too expensive. I got too much of this. Now let me peel a little bit off and now add to other positions that haven’t moved or that I’m underexposed to. Right. So you know, we’re not financial planners here. We can’t do that as financial, we’re not financial planners here.

As financial publishers we’re not allowed to do that. And I really don’t want to do that anyway. But you know, maybe that’ll help you a little bit. Just that’s, that’s the approach we use. Take that if you like it. If not, then thanks for listening. But again, love this group. Think it’s going to get red hot.

I think for the rest of this year this group’s going to be on fire. That’s gold, silver and the miners algorithm starting next week. This week make nine straight weeks that the market has been higher. SP500 eight straight weeks for Nasdaq. And by the way today makes back to back to back days that we’ve had all time highs in all four major indexes. SP 500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 aka small caps. Back to back back days all time highs. And folks know that is not bearish, right? That is extremely extraordinarily bullish.

[00:31:22]:
One point here I’ll make put call ratio today opened at a 0.50. That’s like, that’s like cell territory. You don’t, if you’re bullish you really don’t want to see that. We’re lucky that again we have a two week melt up here to the SpaceX IPO because that’s going to override everything else. It just is. That’s how I see it. But yeah, did not like that kind of a bullish extreme on the put call ratio. It tells you everybody in the mother’s buying calls.

And by the way, let me check the close it closed at a 0.65. I’m okay with that. Like Norm is like 0.70 or something. But 0.50 is too low. That is typically a sell signal. So we’re getting some of the signs that things are getting frothy. But we also see signs where there is no froth. Check this out.

One of our favorite indicators to, to tell how Overbought, oversold we are. It’s, this has been our go to for a very long time. It’s very simple to track these things. The percent of the SPF 100 above the 50 day and the 200 day moving average. Right. With this move we’ve had, wouldn’t you think there’d be 70, 80 stocks above the 50 and 200 day moving average? If you did, you’d be wrong. I kind of thought it too. I checked this morning.

What 50? Only 56.6% of the S P 500 is above the 50 day moving average. Just 60% of the of the index is above the 200 day moving average. What does that mean? We don’t even consider selling stocks. In other words, lightning up in the portfolio. Officially we don’t even consider doing that until we approach the 90% level. We’re at 60 and 56, so we’re nowhere near robot. When you hear people talk about a bubble, oh my God, it’s all gonna end. You know, just remember that and we’ll, you know, as always, we’ll advise when, when that changes.

[00:33:16]:
But we are light years away from having a sell signal based on one of our most important indicators. So that, that, that gives me a lot more confidence. Hopefully it does you as well. All right, let’s look under the hood today. Again. The terms are not good today. Not, not, not horrible. They just weren’t great.

We had advanced decline, was essentially even. One was up a little bit, was down. We had 58.1 up volume for NASDAQ negative 51.3% volume for NYSE again. Dow Jones up 7/10. NASDAQ up 2/10. S 500 up 2/10. Small caps. This is part of the reason for the weakness.

Small caps today were down 6, 10%. They’ve been on a good run. And again, we’re very bullish on this group as well. Again, when the miners run, when small caps run, they tend to really run. I believe that’s gonna look that both of those will have a very good week next week. The charts certainly bear that out in our sector. Watch again, this is not pretty. If I just looked at the internals and I just looked at like the sectors without knowing what the markets did, I would have thought today might have been a pretty bad day because they just weren’t good.

Nine of 11 sectors were lower today. No damage done to the downside. Consumer staples down 2%. That’s an important one. But to the upside, technology was up 1.9%. So it’s interesting trading but again it’s Friday. You know a lot of people were essentially in the summer now a lot of people have already checked out for the long, for taking another long weekend. Volume was low but again not great.

[00:34:54]:
Internals, not great. Sector watch today and again the put call ratio is a concern but because we have a melt up in SpaceX IPO nothing else matters in my opinion. If it does, we’ll let you know what it is. Commodity watch today again like, like shot of a cannon. Open lower. Here came the buyers. Gold today finishing up $42 an ounce. 45.74 so 9/10 of a percent.

Silver day actually lower. I don’t, I don’t know why, it makes no sense to me. 7569 down just a quarter of a percent. Copper today also lower. I mean they’re just taking a break, right? Copper 639 a pound. It’s in a bull market. A bull markets as well. Copper prices are going sharply higher.

We just, we like the gold miners. That’s where we think the most exposure and leverage should be because the leverage is there. I have nothing against copper plays. I just haven’t seen anything that really gets me going like the junior miners we own in the gold space. Crude oil today again cracking lower just, just below now just below $88. A real 8770 down 1.3% of the day. I do think that, I think that within 30 days I said this on Monday I think so 30 days from Monday I do think the oil’s going below 80 but, but I think after that I think it’s going to be in a, probably in an 80, 85, $87 range. By year end I do think we’ll be towards the 70 area in that range.

[00:36:22]:
But look there, there are some supply issues now because of what’s happened on the straight. But you know if you’ve seen this, this isn’t exactly right but it’s pretty close. The straight of Hormuz, it’s about 18 million barrels a day. Whatever is a month. What is that? I’m sorry, it’s Friday, I don’t do math on Fridays and apparently my memory is not what it normally is. I think it’s 18 million of barrels a day. Flies through the, goes through the Strait of Hormuz. Well they’ve got alternate routes now.

Alternate shipping is now taking place in various other similar like straight Hormuz in various seas but they’ve made up over half of that. And again the great advantage for us is so much of that added oil is now coming from the United States. If we didn’t have to, if we didn’t export 8 million barrels a day, that’s what we export a day. If we didn’t export that. To answer your a lot of your questions, like why isn’t oil cheaper? Why aren’t gas prices cheaper than the U.S. we’re independent, right? Largest producer on the planet now, including natural gas being shipped overseas. So why aren’t our prices lower here? That’s the reason we have contracts for exporting. That’s probably something Trump could change if you wanted to.

I’ve not heard any talk about that, but that is the reason still, you know, $4 a gallon, we saw that during Biden. So you can live with it. But again, I’ll tell you, I probably don’t have to tell this audience this. President Trump is fully committed to lower gas prices. It’s one of the reasons he pivoted from this war. And gas prices will fall sharply and oil will as well. Again, I think by year in 70 bucks a barrel. Again, it’s hyper bullish for equities.

But if you like energy stocks, you’re not going to be hurt that much. Matter of fact, they’re probably going to keep going higher. Right? We own a couple of these. We’re going to own another one pretty soon. Of course, a lost soldier. We’ve got big news coming there in the next week and a half, two weeks, we’ll have a private VRA member zoom and let Bruner and the team tell you all about it. I happen to know what they’re working on and it’s extraordinarily exciting. I think you’re all going to be thrilled by it.

[00:38:42]:
And again, we like energy, but you know, I’d rather frankly have exposure to, to the, to other areas of stock market than pure energy stocks right now. All right, finally of the day, Bitcoin. Exactly. Flat 73,007,55. We’ll talk about it more next week. I am a little confused about this Again. Bitcoin was first in, first out from the depth of the war, the beginning of the war. It is up 23% from, from then.

So it’s not like it hasn’t done well. But again, the damage done from the top last October is still being felt. We see this in all the similar indicators. People are giving up on bitcoin. That is, that is typically when you get a good floor. I think we’ve got that floor. I think bitcoin continues to go higher. I think year by year end will have fresh all time highs by year end.

So we’re not even thinking about selling. I think this is short term back and forth action that will be resolved to the upside. All right folks, that’s it for the day. Hope you had a great day and even better week. We’ll see you back here again Monday after the close.