In today’s episode, Kip breaks down an action-packed day in the markets following a turbulent three-day stretch. Tune in as we discuss the psychological toll of market negativity, why dips continue to present opportunities, and ...
Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Wednesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herridge here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. We, we had a very good day in the market today. Look, it’s been a rough three days, right? Friday, Monday, Tuesday. And as you know, I, you know, one of my favorite topics is, One of my favorite topics is beating up on perma Bears. And this is because, I’ll be honest with you, we here at the very.
We have to deal with the fallout from these psyop of negativity losers. I mean, this is what they are, okay? These people don’t beat the markets. They’ll have that one good year, right? Say we go into. Look, we’ve had some tough stretches, okay? I’m not, I’m not gonna, I’m not gonna deny that, but they’ve been like three or four week stretches, right? So, you know, some of these hedge funds and perma bears that are just constantly negative. The Peter Ships of the world, people like that, Michael Burry’s of the world, people like that. They’ll have stretches where they put up big numbers. But then you like, show me, show me the other 10 years, right? But the problem is, is they have a megaphone because they’ve gotten some calls, right? Of course, the media loves negativity, fear sales, right? You know, all the reasons. But frankly, it’s because we have to deal with the fallout because we are not permeable.
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We’re not a perma bear. We’re not perma anything. Perma anything doesn’t make money. Our goal is very simple. It’s just one thing. Beat the market. That’s our goal every year. How do we have to be positioned to beat the market? We’re not day traders.
We’re position builders. That complicates it a little bit, right? Because you have to pick positions that we’re going to want to hold for several months to several years. Yeah, that’s based on our call of the, you know, whatever macro environment we’re in at the time. Anyway, point being, after Monday, Tuesday, excuse me, Friday, Monday, Tuesday, here came the perma bears. You saw them just like I did. The top is in, it’s over here. This is, this is the next 99 top. You’ve all heard it plenty, right? So for me, it’s, frankly, it’s out of frustration.
I’m saying all of this out of frustration because half of the phone calls and emails that we have to deal with on a daily basis, and we love all Our members, we love having these conversations. Absolutely do. But half of them are the exact same conversation and they go like this. I’m a little nervous, Kip. You know, I’m like, you know, you do realize the market just went up 20% in seven weeks. You know, that’s not normal, right? So we had a true melt up in seven weeks. Yeah, I understand. We just had two down days that have only reduced the gains by about one and a half percent.
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You get that, right? Look, I understand it, believe me. I’m typically as nervous as you are when a market goes down because I want to know why is it happening? Is it short lived? And you know, again, my takeaway, you know, my takeaway is this is the beginning, the beginning, this is the very beginning of an unbelievable move higher, led by the innovation revolution. And the thing that I get, I’m about to talk about Nvidia, by the way, Nvidia’s earnings are out. I’ll just wrap this up and get to the big stuff today. But the thing that keeps me grounded about all of this is the realization that almost no one is talking about, which is we’ve entered a very, very special time for mankind. The innovation coming, the inventions coming, the new industries that are coming, the things we don’t even know yet, but we know. Don’t you get a sense they’re coming because folks, they’re coming. And all of this is going to drive these markets parabolic.
And it’s going to happen for a very long time. And what does that mean? Well, here’s the primary takeaway. Dips or depths will continue to be a gift for a very long time. And by the way, we just had a 10% correction. It was called the Ram War. We’re not going to have another one now. This, the rest of this year is going to be, as I’ve said many times, this will be the first year, 2026 will be the first year that Wall street really, really gets to meet the innovation revolution. And this is the first year of many.
They’re going to be very special. Let’s talk, we’re going to talk about Nvidia today. We’re going to talk about our interest rate sensitive portfolio. It’s how we’re positioned that looked wrong over the last. During the course of the war today, it looked a whole lot better. Rates plummeted today. Oil plummeted today. This is something we should get used to.
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But again, this has been our call. We haven’t backed away from it. It’s been our forecast. We Might have been wrong for a few weeks but the way we’re positioned is going to really rock and roll over the rest of this year. We’ll talk about that a little bit and well let’s get to get to Nvidia. So video just announced and by the way here in a few minutes Jensen Wang, the CEO is going to start giving his, his post earnings press conference or earnings call. And I do want to be on that call. So I’m going to move pretty quickly here.
But Nvidia crushed right now. Stock is flat in the after hours and the 223 unchanged which is kind of strange. It tells me it’s going a lot higher. By the way, what typically happens with these big earnings report is they come out, companies like Nvidia Beat raise guidance, all that’s on in print. Everyone has access to that information right now. And then something very different happens. The earnings call begins and then people hear it in his voice. They hear Jensen Wang or whoever the CEO is and they hear it in his voice.
And then here the, the, the flavor right? The, the, the, the, the personality that he adds to, to his already you know, pre written out speech. And that’s when the game start. I think that’s what’s going to happen here because listen to these numbers here. Here, here are the basics you need to know. You may have already seen them but again Nvidia beat and they also beat on their raises. They, they, they, they’re, they’re already you know again raises out there as, as guidance. And so they increased that as well. Revenue came in at 81.6 billion versus estimate of 79.2.
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And remember that that had already been raised twice this quarter. So this is an extraordinary quarter. Earnings were 178 was the estimate that came in at 185. Data center revenue 75.2 billion estimate 73.5 gross margins came in exactly 75%. That’s the thing that doesn’t change a whole lot. I could tell you if the gross margins came in at let’s say 72, 73% this stock would be selling off. It didn’t. It came in exactly as estimated.
Same thing for next quarter. Same goes gross more actually their guidance and gross margin is that gross margins will go up this quarter. They think this is going to be a. The coming quarter. Q2 Q2 is going to be much better than they expected. That’s something Jensen Wang will talk about a lot I’m sure on this call. Q2 Q2 guidance is for $90.6 billion in revenue for, for the second quarter versus estimate of 87 billion. So they beat, they crushed estimates they, they’ve already raised.
And then here’s what they also did. Oh, by the way, oh, by the way, they already had a share buyback buyback program in place of like 40 billion. They just increased it by 80 billion. Yeah, we had an extra $80 billion laying around from this quarter in free cash flow that we’re going to use that to buy back our own stock. As Tyler just said, we’re making so much money even though we’re spending so much money that they raised their expenses by the way too. We’re also going to just go and throw another $80 billion into a share buyback program because we can’t find anything that’s cheaper than our own stock. There is no bigger vote of confidence than a CEO and a management team and a board of directors that decides to do that $80 billion additional share buyback program. And by the way, they also already had a dividend.
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You know, most, most tech stocks don’t pay much of a dividend. And they didn’t either. It was $0.01 a share, right? $0.01 a share. They increased that by 25 times. Now it’s $0.25 a share. Again. It’s still, still small, but this is the trend they’re on. I can promise you this.
When Nvidia has to stop spending so much money on R and D, right. It’s just like these, these other major tech companies investing so heavily in data centers, those will stop. Those days will come to an end or at least they’ll slow when these are all built and constructed. And guess what, guess what they’re going to do with the increased level of cash flow and earnings they do at that point, then they’re really going to ramp up their share buybacks. Right. It’s going to look like Apple does today, just buying back, you know, $100 billion worth of stock every year. So again, great quarter for Nvidia. There’s nothing here to be disappointed at all.
Looking forward to what Jensen Wing has to say about it. Of course, we follow it closely here because we are. It’s one of our VR18 baggers. Been long stock for a long time, very happy with it. Have no, no plans whatsoever to sell this stock. Just like Tesla. Same thing. Which also had a good day today after getting shellac this week.
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Up 3% today to 417. You know our thoughts on Tesla. It’s going to be a rocket shift from here. Okay, just touched on A few things. I wrote this, some of this up this morning. But you know, I’ve been saying now for, I don’t know, I think probably two, three weeks that the war effectively was over. Trump had pivoted. When Trump pivots, he leaves the past behind and he moves forward with the future.
That’s what’s happened here. And we saw it today. The word has gotten out, unless something bizarre happens, we fired our last missile at Iran. Right. And that’s been again, been my call for a couple, three weeks now. And I think we saw even more evidence of that today. Today. Oil prices down 6% today.
Yields day again, yields have been the problem. Why was the market getting hit? Because rates were going higher. Right. The 10 year yield today collapsed. Collapse is down to. Here we go, 4.57%. Hit a high of 4 point, basically 4.7% yesterday. Again, not that far away from the yearly high from Trump’s inauguration of 4.8%.
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So we think yields are really going to ratchet lower. Now all this concern about the Fed, oh, the Fed’s going to hike rates, I think that’s laughable. I really, I believe anyone that says that should be left out of a room with new Fed chair Kevin Warsh purposefully picked by Trump and Bessant, who know that rates must and should be lower, dramatically lower. The, there’s absolutely no chance in hell that the new Fed chair Kevin Warshaw is going to allow rates to be raised because, because inflation is not coming back. Folks, we got a war, right? Oil’s over 100. It should be no surprise to anybody. And the, the, the, the sycophants on Wall street choose not to frame it this way because they know it would just be an honest statement and they don’t know how to do that. When oil prices rise, it, inflation rises because oil goes in everything.
Anybody with common sense knows this. So that means this is temporary. Is exactly what Trump has been saying, what Besson’s been saying, what Washington’s been saying, it’s temporary. And now because of the power of AI and the power of innovation, drastically slashing the prices, almost everything, we’re not going to have to worry about inflation. We’re probably going to have to worry about deflation in a couple of years right now to be disinflation. That’s a very good thing. Deflation is not a great thing for banks. Right.
That’s a longer term conversation to have. We’ll cover it here when it becomes an issue. But no, rates aren’t going up. They’re going lower. No, inflation is not going up, it’s going lower. And again, disinflation will be the theme over the rest of this year. That will play out. It’s a high confidence call.
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And that means our portfolio, which is a very interest rate sensitive structured portfolio. What do we own? We own tech. Interest rate sensitive. Right. Semis interest rate sensitive. Housing interest rate sense of. That’s not been a great call so far. It will be a very good call I think from here housing stocks are really going to take off.
Had a good day today. Small caps, interest rate sensitive. Gold silver miners. Interest rate sensitive. Bitcoin, interest rate sensitive. Our new crypto tau, Interest rate sensitive. So again, that’s how we’re positioned. I, we, I see no reason to change that at all.
Look, if I see a reason, I’ll tell you. Did I like the fact that interest rates have been going up from the beginning of the war? No, I hated it. Do I like the fact oil prices are going up the beginning of the war? No, I didn’t like that either. But again that’s that, that’s. This is the honest use of the word transitory. Right, Right. Not the J. Powell use of the word transitory.
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This is when the word actually applies. Transitory inflation, that’s what we’re seeing now. Transitory high rates. That’s what we’re seeing now. So again, very good day to day in the markets as you’ve probably seen already close at the highest of the day. This is textbook day to day again following three days of weakness. Oh my God. House on fire.
Right. We had three days. The markets went down after a massive melt up. Move higher. Dow Jones up 1.3%. Nasdaq up 1.5. SBF 100 up 1 and small caps up 2.5% today again they’ve been been crushed over the last week or so. It’s good to see again.
Still love small caps for the rest of this year. Looking for my next. I had one more topic to cover with you. Let me go. Oh, I, I want to make the, the other major point again, the macro point that matters most. Right. It’s not just the innovation revolution, it’s not just the Trump economic miracle, but it’s the end result of that. So it’s happening.
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Right. And again, because I’m not hearing this anywhere, which this is the kind of thing that drives me crazy. Q1 earnings are coming in at 27% year over year growth. 27%. Got to go back a decade to find that in a legitimate world. Not a 2021 pandemic world of $7 trillion in funny money being printed. Right. The rest of the year, analyst estimates will see growth of 25% for the full year.
So if the analysts are at 25%, what do you think the return the year over year growth in earnings is really going to be, folks? It’s going to be over 30%. So that means again, once again, dips are a buying opportunity. Right? I just. What I know. Here’s what I know. We’ll reach a point in the next few years where everybody you listen to sounds like Kip Heritage. It’s getting better right there. The Perma bears are being, they’re being crowded out.
But again, there’s so many people that once we have a down day or two, they start losing their damn minds. But there will come a time in a few years where almost everyone you listen to sounds like me. They’ll be saying what we’ve been saying for four years. That will come. They’ll come a time where these sentiment surveys don’t get shellacked at the first sign of trouble. And people looking for the exits. We’re not there yet. But that day will come too.
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As we start getting towards that day, as people become more bullish, that’s a natural, that’s just a natural event of a bull market. That’s just what happens. Right. I’m sure you’ve all experienced it yourself, right? You’re getting more, more optimistic. Right. More bullish about the future and about the markets. Right. Why wouldn’t you? That’s, that’s natural and it’s going to keep happening.
The question I get from a lot of people is, Kip, are you seeing that other people are saying what you guys have been saying? Yeah, we are seeing that. Are we concerned about that? Absolutely not. That’s exactly what should happen. It’s the genesis really, if you will, the evolution of a bull market. So that’s normal. It’ll keep happening until we get to extremes and we’ll let we know what to look for there. You know, the things we look forward extreme. We are light years from extreme.
But anyway, I think again, the rest of this year should be very good. And earnings are going to be the reason why. Earnings and 5% GDP growth rate, which is what we’re going to hit in the very, very near future. It’s going to catch people by surprise when it happens. Atlanta Feds already at 3.7%. So we’re getting closer, right, to that 4%, 4 and a half percent range. And then of course, then 5%. Also just want to put this note out because I wrote that this morning.
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We’re pounding the table once again on gold, silver and the miners, especially the miners, that’s where the leverage is. But all three, physical gold, physical silver, that’s been our call since 2003. We save in gold, we don’t save in fiat. If there’s one thing I can impress upon you on this from this call today is have a very honest conversation with yourself about how you save money. Because I look, you know, like a lot of people, you want to have money in a savings account and maybe you want to have a cd, you want to have keep some things liquid, that’s normal. But if it’s anything other than that, I’d like to encourage you to really give serious consideration to saving in gold. Right. This has been an absolute life changing decision for us.
When we made the decision to do this in 2003, 2004, you know what gold’s done since then. So if you imagine a decent sized portfolio of cash, but instead of in the bank where it’s losing money every year in gold, which is what I save in, is what we save in. Think about doing that. And if you don’t want to own physical gold, where am I going to put it? Right? What am I going to do with it? Right. You don’t have to. There are, there are physical gold ETFs, the Sprot physical gold and Sprott physical silver ETF, they are, they’re rock solid. They only invest in physical gold and silver where, where they store it, where they warehouse it. Right.
So you don’t have to. And it’s insured and all that. But again, the Sprott physical gold ETF and the Sprott Silver physical silver etf, those are the two you could consider using instead if you didn’t want to have just physical. And we use both. So again, rates are going down. Dollar is going to go down. And that means take a look at the chart of gdx. You know what, I’m going with this shared this morning.
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GDX again had been the number one performing sector for a year and a half and then in the war broke out, rates started going up, dollar started going up. Right. Oil started going up. Right. These are all the kids to death for the miners. So the natural thing happened, they got hit. All right, that, that happens. But that is a counter trend move, not a primary trend move.
The primary trend for this group, Gold silver miners, remains sharply higher. Right. This, this is a Multi, multi year melt up bull market, bull market of bull markets for gold, silver miners. So when you see a group that has that kind of background, that kind of setup, fundamental setup, right. And you see what it’s done now, which is GDX, the gold miner ETF has pulled back to the 200 day moving average. It is a sharply moving tuner day, so it’s not quite as hard to pull back. Good. It really hasn’t been that big of a decline.
It’s been noticeable, but again, it’s not what you would think. 200 days seems like it’s a, a big decline. Not really. Not, not not really. But the gift being given to us is that now GDX for only the second time in two years has hit the 200 day moving average. Just as the Stochastics, our shortest term momentum oscillator, is hitting extreme oversold levels. And so yeah, we’re oversold at the 200 day. Make sure you own the miners.
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With rates going lower, oil going lower, inflation going lower, dollar going lower. This is a group that is about to be a rocket ship. That’s my call of the day. Also, I know we have a lot of Lost Soldier investors here. Not everyone here on the, on the, on the Zoom on the podcast is with us at VRA. I’d love to have you come join us two free weeks@vrinsider.com. but for all of you that know Lost Soldier oil and gas and your investor, I’ll just tell you say this, look, it’s a private company. Yes, I have inside information.
Let me just admit that, yes, I do. But it’s private, so it’s. I’m not breaking any laws, but I’ve been sworn to secrecy. I’m not going to say what it is. I’ll just say this. Within two, three weeks, I think probably too you’ll get an announcement from us, email announcement that we’re having a members only Zoom call with Zoom meeting with Lost Soldier. And on that Zoom meeting you will find out what I know and I’ll just put out one teaser. If you know the name of the company, Netherlands Sewell.
Netherlands Sewell. It’ll give you an idea of what I’m talking about. They’re one of the most respected and oldest reservoir engineering experts you know on the planet. Right. That gives you some sense of what I’m talking about. But it’s a very good news. Mark Bruner’s working his magic and we look forward to hosting that Zoom for you here in a couple. I’ll say three weeks.
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Probably a couple of weeks. All right, let’s take a look on the hood today. Good internals today 3 to 1 advanced decline. Both NYC and Nasdaq volume also very good. 73% volume. Nasdaq 71.4% of volume for NYSE and we had 50 high low was about break even. Understandable after the last three days. We’ve had sector wash today also good 8 sectors higher, 43 sectors lower.
LED the upside by of course technology of 1.9%. That’s what semis today again textbook day. Semis today up 3.8%. Tech up 1.6%. To the downside. Really no damage done whatsoever actually. Energy of course with oil being down sharply. Energy today down 2.5%.
Commodity watch there’s, there’s, they’re switching over from June to July futures contracts. So this seems a little distorted. I’m just going to give you the end result. Gold today rallying 1.4%. Silver today up a big 2.4%. Copper today. Gold last trade 45 46. Silver 7619 copper today 633 a pound up 313 of a percent.
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And again crude oil down today, down 5%. Last trade at 99 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate. All right folks, that’s it for the day. I’m going to get on to the Nvidia earnings call. Hope you had a great day. Maybe a better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close. It.
In today's episode, Tyler breaks down a volatile market session shaped by geopolitical tensions, including an escalating Iranian conflict and a high-profile True Social post from Donald Trump. You’ll hear key insights on what’s happening under the surface of the markets, the resilience of the semiconductor sector despite heavy selling, and a dive into sentiment indicators that may surprise you. Tyler also shares his perspectives on the upcoming midterms, why political certainty matters to markets, and delivers an exciting update on SpaceX and its ambitious plans for Mars colonization. Plus, get the latest on sector performance, the Fear & Greed Index, and what the data means for investors looking ahead to the end of the year. Stay tuned for a well-rounded analysis and the contrarian moves shaping today’s market landscape. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
Welcome to another episode of the VRA Investing Podcast with your host, Tyler Herriage. In today’s show, Tyler Herriage breaks down the strong start to the week for the markets, following a tough sell-off last Friday—the worst day of the year so far for the S&P 500. He discusses why there’s no need to panic, sharing historical stats that reinforce this bull market’s staying power and why short-term dips are just part of the journey. We’ll cover major headlines like Tesla’s surge on the back of big news from their newest major investor—the “Chinese Warren Buffett”—as well as what’s heating up in the IPO world with OpenAI’s recent filing. Tyler Herriage will review key index moves, sentiment readings, sector highlights, internals, and commodities including Bitcoin and notable winners like Galaxy Digital. Plus, he touches on practical investment strategies, the outlook for VRA’s favorite “10 bagger” stocks, and why now could be a generational opportunity for retail investors. Stay tuned for all the essential stats, stories, and actionable insights from today’s market action!
In today's episode, Kip breaks down a turbulent Friday in the markets, where a brutal selloff sent shockwaves through major sectors but also revealed underlying signals of opportunity. From a rare 39% spike in the VIX to sharp declines in semiconductors, gold, and bitcoin, Kip explores why volatility is the true price of admission in bull markets and why panic selling may be the biggest mistake investors can make right now. With insights on recent jobs data, upcoming IPOs, and critical market indicators, this episode is packed with the actionable analysis and contrarian perspective you need to navigate today's market chaos and prepare for the opportunities ahead. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
In today’s episode, Tyler breaks down a record-setting day in the markets, with the Dow Jones and other major indexes hitting all-time highs. He discusses current market trends, the breadth expansion, and the rotation of this bull market, highlighting the persistent strength beyond the headline-making “Magnificent Seven” stocks. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast! It’s a jam-packed Wednesday as Kip Herriage returns after three days away with an in-depth market update. Today, Kip Herriage breaks down the end of the market’s nine-day winning streak, why he believes this is a "buy the dip" moment, and how the VRA System signals there’s plenty of room left in this powerful, long-lasting bull market. He covers headlines from a parabolic surge in semiconductors and AI stocks, to the impact of global events on oil and rates, and the market’s anticipation for the SpaceX IPO. On the company front, we get updates on Tesla's breakthrough robo-taxi rollouts in Austin and promising news for Lost Soldier investors. Kip Herriage also unpacks the latest in Bitcoin volatility, gold and miners, and why retail investors may be selling the recovery short. Strap in for a fast-moving, insight-packed episode that puts the week’s major financial headlines into sharp focus!
