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VRA Podcast: All-Time Highs, Inflation Surprises & the Fed’s Political Moves – Tyler Herriage – January 13, 2026

In today's episode, Tyler breaks down the latest market action after a day of slight losses for the major indexes, but with plenty of exciting things happening beneath the surface. We'll cover insights on the latest inflation data ...

Posted On January 13, 20261733
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About This Episode

In today's episode, Tyler breaks down the latest market action after a day of slight losses for the major indexes, but with plenty of exciting things happening beneath the surface. We'll cover insights on the latest inflation data, including an unexpected downside surprise in core CPI, why US gas prices have dropped to multi-year lows, and how these shifts are impacting American households. We will also discuss another round of all-time highs and the latest revelations from J Powell and the Federal Reserve. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Transcript

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon everyone. Tyler Herriage with you for today’s VRA Investing Podcast. Hope you all had a fantastic day out there today. If you’re a regular listener here of the VRA Investing Podcast, you know, Kip and I have a long running joke that he gets the up days and I of course get the down days. Well, now that we’re back into a new rhythm here for the new year, it looks like some things will stay the same as we did. You know, we got some good action earlier in the session today, but ultimately finished lower for for our major indexes.

Nothing crazy out there, slight losses on the day to day, but we’ll cover all of that and much more here today on the podcast. So let’s quickly cover what we’re going to be talking about today. We got some economic data back this morning, some inflation data back this morning and more to come this week as well. We got our first look at an earnings report this week as it always begins, big banks kickoff earning season. So JP Morgan reported this morning. We’ll touch on that briefly here today. Then of course, if you heard Kip’s podcast yesterday talking about the Federal Reserve, some new things came to light today as well. So of course I wouldn’t miss a chance to bash on Jay Powell a little bit as he does deserve here.

[00:01:47]:
And then of course our market action where it wasn’t all bad out there today, we also got another round of all time highs here as well from a number of our favorite areas in this market. So stay tuned. There’s certainly some great things happening under the hood of this market that you won’t want to miss on today’s podcast. So let’s go ahead and jump right in here this morning. Futures were lower on the day going in to this morning’s CPI report coming out at 8:30 Eastern Time, which drum roll here, if you haven’t already seen it, was another downside surprise here, you know, which of course the experts, the experts just couldn’t believe it, right? Because the December number was only lower because of the government shutdown. They weren’t able to compile all of the data like they normally do because they weren’t in the office. Right? So this number should have been red hot to really correct those previous numbers that were lower. Well that’s not what we got at all as we got CPI coming in at 2.6% year over year.

[00:03:04]:
That’s core CPI. And on the news, yields dropped, the 10 year finished lower on the day and stocks popped earlier in the session. We did have some green on the screen, a couple of all time highs which I’ll get to here more of in a second. And you know, it just always. I’ll touch on that. A little bit more of the experts being stunned after this morning’s data. But a big part of it was US Gas prices falling, hitting their lowest level since March of 2021. US households set to save over $11 billion on gasoline prices in 2026 compared to 2025.

What a year it has been. Year one just about in the books here for President Trump. The Trump economic miracle 2.0 really one of the reasons why we saw even inflation at this number which you know, CPI compiled by the bls. We don’t really trust anything about government data which you know, according to the data this morning, there was an uptick in shelter cost which I think is where some of the manipulation came in for this report. Because many, many major metropolitan areas, rent is falling. Right. May not necessarily be housing, but rent has fallen. You know that’s some of the of the better run cities I should say.

You know I’m here in Austin, Texas. We’ve seen a massive building boom over the last few years. Apartments, they were going for 2,000, $2,500 a month just a few years ago are now going for 1200 to $1500 a month. Really have. We’ve seen some incredible price drops because the builders responded to the market. They saw those high rates that people were able to charge for rent and they went on a massive building spree. Now those apartments are opening up and rent prices are falling, falling. So as you know here touched on this Friday.

[00:05:10]:
Kip talked about it some this week as well. We like truflation much more than the official government numbers. And look at this CPI for truflation coming in at 1.74%. Now the Fed always says that they go off of PCE. We’ll look at Truflation’s PCE as well. 1.93% percent. I mean exactly what you want to see. This has been our call for some time that inflation is a rear view mirror issue.

We’ve said it for years now even before Trump was reelected because inflation always was and always has been a money printing issue. And now the money printers are back on M2. Money supply just hit, you know, another all time high at the end of last year. But the key is wages are up which is not inflationary. I’ll get to that here more in a Second, but we’re also seeing a number of other factors. Like I talked about gas prices down, and energy is really the key here. Oil did get back above $60 a barrel today, but man, what a decline we’ve seen in oil prices. And that makes up so much of inflation.

Like I said, American households set to Save Oil over $11 billion in gasoline costs alone, right? Energy goes into everything, of course, it goes into transportation. So your goods should be lower, produce should be lower, meat, all of these things, what you’re spending on at the grocery store are all of those things directly affected by lower energy prices, which really is the key here for inflation. So we can continue to see a little bit of money printing, you know, back in line with what we would normally expect, which is why we said for long that you must own assets in 2025, for example, money supply grew roughly four and a half percent last year, which means if your money was in a money market account, if your cash was in a money market account earning less than four and a half percent, well, you lost money really last year. This is why you must own inflationary assets. That means owning stocks, means owning real estate, or means owning precious metals, gold, silver, physical gold and silver. And of course, the newest kid on the block, Bitcoin, which is having a good day today as well. So, again, even though inflation may not be up, the money printer is still on. And we think we are, though, in a disinflationary environment, ultimately leading to a deflationary environment, thanks to the innovation revolution.

[00:07:59]:
Innovation in and of itself is a deflationary factor. You know, you can go back throughout just about all of history, whether it was horse and buggy to cars, right? Going up to cars and trucks from the horse and buggy brought down transportation costs on so many items, made items accessible to areas you would have never thought possible. Airlines, right? How do you think you can get ripe avocados in the north in the middle of winter, right? Only because of airlines, only because of trucking, how you get fresh produce year round, right? These are incredible innovations. You can go back further. Look at the cotton gin. You know, all of these things. People at the time said they were going to kill jobs, said that, you know, the job market would be decimated. And Kip talked about this on a recent podcast that he did with Grant Cinchfield, which is a fantastic podcast.

If you haven’t seen it yet, you know, check out our social media. We’ve got it there. It’s also on Rumble as well. Just a fantastic interview there from Kip. And Grant and Kip touched on this going back to the end of the the invention of the automobile, whether it’s any of the factors I just mentioned, people at the time said that it was going to destroy jobs. The opposite has happened every single time. It created the more jobs than they destroyed. So that’s how we can be in a money printing environment where inflation turns into disinflation and even deflation going forward.

[00:09:37]:
But it doesn’t change the fact that you must own inflationary assets in a money printing era. While we see deflation and those things, your dollar is still going to be worth less in the long run. And again, why you must own stocks here. So on that news you would have expected to see interest rate cuts, the odds of interest rate cuts at least going up for January. Well, it’s the opposite of what we got. I’ll go ahead and pull this one up here. I didn’t prepare this one for today, but I might as well show it here. One of my favorites that I show here often is the CME’s fed watch tool.

Now again, this is just a tool in these numbers change rapidly as you as you’ll see here in a second. So there we go. Looking at the Feds meeting later this month. Thankfully we still got a couple of weeks. We do have a number of Fed speakers out this week. You know, I’ll get to that here in a second. But take a look. We’ve got roughly a 98% probability of the Fed staying where they are, which is at 350 to 375, which is down from just a day ago before this inflationary, before the CPI data came out.

Now tomorrow we’ve also got PPI coming out as well. But look where we were just a week ago. You know, not huge odds for a rate cut, but much above where they are now, which is about the opposite that you would expect from this kind of action. And there’s really only one reason for that and that is because we have a purely political Fed now. And that’s been proven time and time again. If you follow Jay Powell for any amount of time at all, you know, he’s very much even though he was first nominated and appointed by Trump, he’s very much an anti Trumper. He’s in so many ways. And we learned this really in the James o’ Kee video from just a couple of years ago where somebody on his staff came out and talked about how much Jay Powell is hates Trump.

[00:11:47]:
You know, not just a dislike of the man, a true real Hatred of Trump. So if you heard Kip’s podcast yesterday, then you probably know where I’m going with this. Where Jay Powell’s hostage video from Sunday. And I. Kip called it that yesterday. I think he absolutely nailed it. Because the Federal Reserve doesn’t do anything, anything without careful telegraphing, careful planning. You know, very rarely do you see.

See a surprise rate hike or rate cut. They’re very telegraphed. And this message on Sunday, I mean, and the, the professional quality of it, too, right? They don’t do this looks planned in a way, but it came out unexpectedly. And it very much looked like someone put Jay Powell up to this. You know, whoever’s can pulling the strings behind Jay Powell. And you know, this guy’s not a leader by any, any sense of the term. So, you know, that somebody made him do this. That certainly seems to be the case because.

[00:12:55]:
And we’ll get into this a little bit here today, you know, this video talking about the DOJ charges being brought against him. This case was not public information. Jay Powell chose to go public with this information. And I think it’s for one reason, and there’s really only one explanation for it. It’s trying to frame the narrative in his favor. And we’ll talk about this here a little bit, you know, because the real story from the DOJ is that he’s being investigated for his comments under oath in regards to the massive cost overruns in their building renovations, which Kip talked about this yesterday as well. If you go back and watch when they were at the building renovations, you might remember Trump and Powell in a hard hat together, and Trump saying, we’re gonna look into these, these cost overruns here. And Jay Powell just, you know, playing the fool.

I don’t, I don’t know what you’re talking about. And Trump hands him the piece of paper that shows it. Jay Powell tries to justify it. I mean, he looked like a little kid being scolded by a principal, really. I mean, as Trump is so often done, if you remember in his first term, when Justin Trudeau, who’s a big talker right, in his own country, and then when he gets in front of Trump in the Oval Office, just, just looks meek and not in, in the, the term of, like the meek shall inherit the earth, just looks really weak. So that’s the real story here. But he’s trying to frame it in a way that makes it seem like they’re putting pressure on him and they’re challenging the Fed’s independence to get him to lower rates I mean, this is about lying under oath. This has nothing to do with rates.

[00:14:45]:
Right? I mean, even if it did in, in the behind closed doors, if that’s a pressure move here, the narrative from that point of view makes no sense. You know, Jeanine Pirro, who is the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, said this would have not had, this would not have happened if Jay Powell had just responded to her outreach. So this is again, purely on Jay Powell here, which is why it does seem like someone’s behind Jay Powell here pulling the string. So it’s really laughable if you’ve seen the video from Sunday where he repeats, you know, oh, no one is above the law. Well, this is above the law kind of behavior. Right. To try and reverse the script here and say that it’s like political blackmail.

Right. It’s the same playbook that they use for the Hunter Biden laptop story is another extension of the Russia collusion hoax. Right? Remember, the Hunter Biden laptop story came out and immediately faked. 51 intelligence agencies came out, or officials from intelligence agencies came out and said, this looks like Russia. We can’t say for certain, but this looks like Russia disinformation. This is what Nancy Pelosi calls the wrap up smear. Have you seen this video? You know what I’m talking about, where she gets into a press conference and she goes, all right, you want some kind of insider baseball here? This is a political tactic that we call the wrap up smear, where we leak a piece of information to the press. So you are in, floated out there on our new shows.

Then we have the press report on it to give it legitimacy, and then we monetize it in the public’s eye. It’s exactly what it looks like here. So Jay Powell released this information immediately. Media outlets pounce on it, Other central banks come to his aid. This looks too perfectly planned. Take a look at this. Just like the 51 intelligence agencies, you’ve now got every central bank from the ECB to the BoE, the Reichsbank, the Danish national bank, all of these central bank governors coming to the aid of Jay Powell, saying, we stand in full solidarity with the Federal Reserve System and its chairman, Jerome H. Powell, which I’ve never even heard him referred to by his full name like that.

[00:17:20]:
You know, the independence of central banks is a cornerstone of price, financial and economic stability in the interests of the citizens that we serve. Let’s just go ahead and ignore the fact that these central banks were foisted onto us specifically here in the US the creature from Jekyll island created in 1913 without a boat. This is an unconstitutional institution. And you know, let’s just brush right over the fact that they are not federal and they have no reserves. Right? This is exactly, exactly the same playbook that they used for the Russia collusion hoax. I mean it really, when you take a look at an image like that, your, your bullshit indicators should be going off here because none of this passes the smell test at all. You know, really, once again, for those above the law kind of comments, it’s pure projection from the left which they’ve gotten so good at. And really, to bring it all back to the inflation topic, the point of the story here, you know, Jay Powell accusing President Trump of acting in a political manner when it’s the exact opposite.

The only reason that Jay Powell won’t cut rates here is because of his political views. This is the only outlet that he has to still try and get Trump. Now we don’t think the Fed really has the ability to do that anymore. You know, that power has really been taken away from them. This is kind of like their last chance to try and do something about it. We think that it’ll fail. But you know, if Kamala were president right now, that fed funds rate while I was at 350 to 375 today, it’d be right in line with where we saw the CPI data. Now in, in our view, it should be even lower.

[00:19:09]:
Stephen Myron, you know, Fed’s newest, Trump’s newest appointee to the Fed said that by the end of the year the fed funds rate should be 150 basis points lower. I think if Kamala were in office, rates would be a minimum of one full percentage point lower. A hundred basis points here. And I, I really, I say that with 100% confidence. And here’s why. In 2024, just ahead of the election, the Federal Reserve was trying to do everything they can they could to goose markets. At the time, just before the election, the fed did a 50 basis point cut. Back then, core CPI was at 3.3%.

Today, 2.6%. The unemployment rate was at 4.1%. Today, the unemployment rate 4.4%. Much higher. Really. So if the Fed really wanted to do their job, I agree with Stephen Myron, we’d really be at about 150 basis points lower today. You know, he’s in favor of getting that level now and then making adjustments as they need to afterward. You know, he said this last year as well.

It’s a speed thing they agree on the ultimate outcome. But he wants to get there faster. Let’s unleash the American economy. Let’s run red hot because inflation is not an issue. And one other factor here, you know, the Fed being wrong time and time again. Well, they’ve been dead wrong on tariffs. We’ve seen no spike in inflation from tariffs. Again, inflation is a money printing issue and there are some things you can do to offset that.

[00:20:47]:
Right, like bringing down energy prices. The Fed has also said wage growth is somehow an inflationary factor. Well, how about this? Wages change in real wages. So inflation adjusted wages under Biden, just a collapse. What do you think that did to the American people? There’s your affordability crisis right there. Now, on the other hand, we’ve got President Trump’s ratings, right? Wow. I mean talk about a president of the people here who’s really trying to help the American public. Like Kip talked about yesterday as well, you know, bringing down those credit card interest rates, which are usury level charges on interest rates.

What was the other one that he came out with today? I know, I wanted to talk about it. Well, maybe it’ll come to me in a little bit. But you know, factors that will really affect American’s bottom line that he’s trying to help with. Like we talked about on Friday, getting interest rates lower on mortgages. And we’ve seen, you know, multi year lows on mortgage rates after that $200 billion injection that Trump talked about last week. And again, that’s not free market capitalism, but we see it as a nudge and back in the right direction to get these interest rates lower. Because who does that affect the most? Well, it doesn’t affect the wealthy the most. They’re not having a problem going out there and getting loans and paying for homes.

It affects the what we call the second America. The person trying to go out and be a first time home buyer, the person whose car just broke down, they need to go buy a used vehicle. That’s who interest rates affect the most. And again, just why the Federal Reserve has been absolutely tone deaf here. So point of the story, this is pure politics from Jay Powell and reeks of Russia collusion hoax all over again. Same thing they did with the hunter buying lap laptop story they’re trying to do. Again, here again, Nancy Pelosi’s own words. This is the wrap up smear.

[00:22:57]:
They’re just trying to frame this in the public’s mind. Now I’m it’s going to be a fascinating year. You know, Bessant has talked about this as well. In a recent interview he talked about some of the the spats between him and Elon Musk was which really weren’t over the end result. But Elon comes from the Silicon Valley mindset which is move fast, break things. Scott Besant is going at this from a very different point of view. He’s talked about this being a bear trap and when we see it on the back end now, of course we’ve still got to see it, right. We hear all the stories of 40 chess from the first term and then didn’t see a whole lot happen.

It does seem like things are happening behind the scenes right now whether just like Scott Besson said, they’ve walked into a bear trap. What we’re seeing in Minnesota, they’re going to be applying to the other 49 states as well. That’s what he has said. So again, buckle up. It’s going to be an exciting year to see what happens on that front. Really see if we can spring that bear trap on the deep state here. All right, moving back on to the market here also, just one final point. It was great to see after Jay Powell released that video yesterday for stocks to be up yesterday.

Right. It just shows the how little influence Jay Powell really does have anymore. All right, so earnings we had JP Morgan reporting today beating on both the top and bottom line. The financials didn’t perform too well today on that news. You know, no love lost here for us in the big banks. Right. Kip talked about this yesterday as well. You know, this really isn’t an industry we want to own for anything, but especially not long term.

[00:24:42]:
We don’t really want to own the big banks. Kip and I might disagree slightly on there. I don’t mind making money on a trade, especially maybe in a leveraged ETF or something like that. But as far as owning any of these individually, I want nothing to do with it. That’s a conversation for another time. Not so much on the earnings front, but on the tech side of things, Google did hit an all time high today. So I’ll let that lead in to we’ll talk about a number of all time highs today as Google is now passed above a $4 trillion valuation as Apple has now contracted Google to help and really kind of redesign. Siri, Apple has just fallen completely on the AI race.

Doesn’t even look like they’re trying to participate anymore. Now they are participating from some other point of views that most people might not know about and that is chip design. They’ve done some incredible work on Apple silicone. I mean we use a lot of Apple products here. That’s something that really hasn’t been talked about enough is how impressive these chips are. So definitely kudos to Apple from that point of view. But as far as the software side of things go, having to contract Google here to redesign Siri is not that great of a look. So we’ll see what happens.

[00:26:03]:
But Google now only trailing three companies out there, Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple itself. You know, with this announcement and the announcement of their TPUs, their tensor processing units, which are their version of an AI chip, to hope they hope to directly compete with Nvidia’s GPUs, their graphic processing units. There’s a story we’ve touched on here. I can dive into it a little bit more if you’re curious to learn more about that, reach out. I could talk about it more on my next podcast as well. But again, to the point of all time highs, new highs beget new highs. And we’ll get to more here in a little bit on the podcast today. Looking now at our markets on the daytoday, with that kind of move in Google, you might have expected tech to finish higher on the day.

It was still our leader, but finished down 1/10 of 1%. After the CPI data this morning our markets did pop into the green, but those gains didn’t hold for too long. Ultimately we were able though to finish off the lows of the day. Really a pretty good last 20 to 30 minutes of trading here today to finish well off the lows. The Nasdaq leading the way down 1/10 of 1%. Right after that small caps which did hit an all time high today, also down 1/10 of 1%. So there’s one all time high on the day. But on the tech side, what do we say? So often you want to see tech leading the market and semis leading tech? Well, the semis did hit another all time high today.

Exactly what we want to see. And the relative strength chart that we look at so much, you know, continuing to hit new high after new high compared to our major indexes. Again that’s the relative outperformance we want to continue to see here. After that the S&P 500 down just under 210 of 1%. So again the losses on the day really pretty fractional here. And the Dow Jones was our biggest loser on the day down 810 of 1%. You know overall here we are at short term overbought levels. On our shortest term momentum oscillators we still have a ways to go here before we hit those extreme overbought on steroids levels that we talk about here so often.

[00:28:22]:
But I’ve got one more chart to show here for you and that is the percentage of stocks above the 50 day moving average. I can zoom in, make that a little larger for you here. Let’s see. All right, so I mean even to where we were after, you know, this is tariff mania from last year. Look, we got up to an 84% of stocks above the 50 day moving average. We’re at 67% now today. That tells us once again we’ve got plenty of room to run before we hit extreme overbought levels. And we can go even beyond that.

You’re looking at 80%, 87% there. You know, if we start getting into the 90% range, that’s when we start to look really at taking some profits right now we might say in certain areas. This is when we pause our monthly dollar cost averaging programs. This is when you want to have already owned stocks. But again, any type of move lower, we don’t see as a major, as a major market top for our markets here. Even when we look at our sentiment indicators like the fear and greed index, we just finally, I mean after all time high, after all time high, we just finally got back into greed territory and we’re just barely in degree territory at a 56 I believe we’re at right now. I share this chart so often, so I won’t do it here today once again. But yes, a 56 year, one point above neutral essentially.

[00:29:49]:
So no, we are not at really excessive optimism or as I think it was Ben Bernanke or Alan Greenspan who coined the term irrational exuberance. We’re just not at those kinds of levels yet really in, in the short term here, the most important movers continue to head higher. This again, the semis all time high today. Bitcoin, which we’ll get to here in a minute, just hit its highest levels, what since two months ago. You know, that’s the kind of action we want to see continue from bitcoin. You know, didn’t have a great year last year, but CIB has covered this many times with the set after a down year for Bitcoin, it’s higher one year later, 100% of the time with average gains of like 100%. That’s the kind of year we want to see from bitcoin this year. Next up here, taking a look at our internals.

You know, for a day with red across the board for our major indexes. Really pretty solid numbers here from the internals. Let me get a quick refresh of my screens here. All right, positive here on the day for NYSE we had more advancing stocks than declining stocks. Just barely negative on the NASDAQ. No two to one beats or anything like that. 52 week highs and lows. When you’re at or near all time highs you would expect that most stocks aren’t in the range of 52 week lows.

So this can be a bit of a lagging indicator as we talk about here often. But over 8 to 1 positive on the NYSE today and just shy of 3 to 1 positive on the Nasdaq as well. Volume similar story here, not quite positive but no big losses here. Just slightly negative on the NYSE and really almost even on the NASDAQ today. So for a down day like today, no major concerns from the internals. Now let’s get into a few more all time highs here. Our sectors on the day we finished with 7 out of our 11s and P500 sectors higher on the day we got an all time high from energy stocks and for what oil has been doing, I mean spent a large amount of time below $60 a barrel. Just barely got to that level today.

[00:32:08]:
For energy stocks to perform this well and be at all time highs, hey that that’s great to see here. It means that they’re making money even though the the price per barrel is this low. Great to see. We also got industrials hitting an all time high today and materials hitting an all time high. One other winner that I want to point out here today, housing as you know, if you’re here with us often in the S and P sectors, they really cover real estate which we don’t like to track as much as mostly made up of REITs. We track the home builders now those the home builders just hit their highest levels since September of last year. After that big move higher that we saw on Friday. It’s good to see a continuation of that move.

Tells you it’s not just a one off kind of move here. Let’s get the homebuilders back to work. Let’s bring down housing costs and it costs and then you can bring down shelter just like we’ve seen with apartment and rent prices in so many areas of the US finally here for today, our VRA commodity watch. Let’s do a few more all time highs. Gold hidden all time high earlier in the session day at $4,632 an ounce. Now last trade, $4,602 an ounce. What an incredible move that it has been from gold. And we’re talking about the global reflation trade.

[00:33:35]:
Okay, this, this chart I’m about to show you is almost identical to what we’re seeing from copper as well. They call it Dr. Copper for a reason because it goes in to so many items from, you know, wiring and housing to tech. So when, when Dr. Copper is performing well, it’s a good sign for the global economy. And Kip talked about this yesterday as well. For me to take a step back here, it’s been an incredible run for the gold miners, no doubt about it. But when this group goes, it can really go.

And this is just a look of how early we think we are in this trade. We’re just now, you know, gold miners hit their first all time high since 2012, 2011 last year. Okay. A decade of really sideways action from the group. Now we’re seeing the outperformance catch up. You know, this is the highest level of outperformance from the gold miners, the S&P 500 since 2013. Again, look how much better this can do from here. So we think that this chart continues in that direction.

Looks very much like a breakout of this kind of triple top that we’ve seen from this group. Again, has this keeps us very bullish for this group going forward. Gold miners also, let me see what their final gains were on the day to day. Up 8, 10 of 1%. Just shy of that. Another all time high from this group. Exactly what we want to see. Silver also hit an all time high today of$89.18 an ounce.

Last trade here,$87,33 an ounce. Copper again, Dr. Copper just below an all time high now above $6 a pound in oil. As I mentioned earlier, getting back above 61 or $60 a barrel and, and then some now at $61.12 a barrel. You know, this, this chart here is starting to show some signs of life in the short term. But we know President Trump’s policies lower energy prices. A lot of moving factors going on there right now, whether it’s geopolitical tensions in Iran, what we’ve seen in Venezuela and how that might impact what we’re seeing in oil prices. And if you’re very familiar with the oil market, you know that refineries, especially the refineries here in Texas, in, in the Permian, what we get is primarily light crude.

[00:36:08]:
Okay. From Shell. What we need for these refineries to combine with that, the way they’re designed is a mixture of light and heavy crude. Now when Venezuela started to shut off, you know, their exports here and now they are at least previously, before Maduro’s exit, they were exporting to Russia and China and we began to import that heavy crude from Canada. Now with tariffs, that’s changed a little bit. And we’ve got to get that heavy crude from somewhere else to now that Venezuela is back in play here. You see where I’m going with this. Potentially much lower oil prices depending on how that shakes out.

Now in the short term, you know, really, again, this chart is showing short term signs of life. Both President Trump’s policies. Wouldn’t be surprised to get back below $60 a barrel here. Finally here for today, bitcoin. I want to see this last trade because it was on a tear right before I started this podcast. Now at $95,400 a Bitcoin up four and a half percent on the day to day. Let’s see, the highs of the day did get back to $96,000 of Bitcoin again, the highest levels since mid November. We’d love to see that move continue here.

As you know, we do remain bullish on bitcoin, folks. That is all that we have time for here today. Please be sure to subscribe to receive our VRA podcast every day at the market close. You can sign up at vraletter.com, click the podcast link at the top and we’d love to have you with us. Thanks again for tuning in. Until next time. We’ll see you back here tomorrow for the close.

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Time Stamps

00:00 Market Highs Amid CPI Surprise
05:44 Inflation, Money Supply, and Energy
06:29 Energy Costs, Inflation, and Assets
10:54 Fed Politics and Jay Powell
13:53 Trump Confronts, Powell Defends
17:20 Central Bank Critique and Inflation
21:03 Impact of Lower Mortgage Rates
24:42 Big Banks Avoided, Google Soars
28:57 Market Sentiment and Strategy Overview
29:49 Optimism, Bitcoin, and Market Trends
35:11 Commodities Surge: Oil & Metals
36:08 Venezuelan Oil's Impact on Prices

More Episodes

1801 | May 08, 2026
VRA Podcast: Staying Locked In for the Bull Market: Winning IPOs, Tesla, and Megatrends – Kip Herriage – May 8, 2026

Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast! In today’s episode, Kip Herriage breaks down the current state of the bull market as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ notch new all-time highs. He reflects on the accuracy of VRA’s long-term market forecasts, dives into why this era of innovation goes beyond just the AI boom, and previews changes coming to the VRA approach—including new focus on opportunistic IPO trading. Kip Herriage also shares lessons learned from the dot-com era, offers bullish insights on Tesla and Nvidia, and calls out lingering market bearishness as a powerful buy signal. Tune in for analysis on market cycles, trends in commodities like gold and bitcoin, and a candid look at why the economic growth story is just getting started.

1800 | May 07, 2026
VRA Podcast: Parabolic Markets, Mega Cap Earnings & Where Opportunity Lies – Tyler Herriage – May 7, 2026

In today’s episode, Tyler takes you through the latest developments in the markets after a parabolic move to fresh all-time highs, even as we see a brief pause with some red on the screen. Get ready for a fast-paced ride through earnings season highlights, sector analysis, and unique historical comparisons that put today’s market into perspective. Tyler breaks down why disciplined investing, understanding overbought conditions, and keeping an eye on the leadership of mega cap tech are key to navigating this market. Plus, learn why money supply growth, investor sentiment, and animal spirits may signal that the real party in the markets is just getting started. Whether you’re a seasoned listener or new to the VRA, buckle up as we explore where the biggest opportunities lie and why it’s not too late to join this bull run. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

1799 | May 06, 2026
VRA Podcast: How Trump, China Talks, and Fed Changes Are Fueling the Melt-Up Bull Market – Kip Herriage – May 6, 2026

Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast with your host, Kip Herriage. In today’s episode, Kip Herriage breaks down why he believes we’re in the early innings of a powerful, structural bull market. He shares insights on market signals, major asset class moves—like the surges in gold, silver, and the miners—and explains why all-time highs across the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 are just the beginning. Kip Herriage dives into geopolitical updates, including Trump’s pivot on the current conflict and its impact on markets, and lays out his bullish outlook on key sectors—from housing and tech to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and the emerging star, BitTensor. Plus, get his take on the Federal Reserve transition, the importance of tokenization, and why the current melt-up phase could generate massive opportunities for investors. Stay tuned for a data-packed, bullish market roadmap you won’t want to miss.

1798 | May 05, 2026
VRA Podcast: Markets Hit All-Time Highs as Semiconductors Go Parabolic – Tyler Herriage – May 05, 2026

In today's episode, Tyler breaks down a powerful move to all-time highs as semiconductors go parabolic to lead the charge. He walks through the latest earnings and what the major indexes are signaling about the strength of this bull market. PLUS, don't miss what history says about what comes next after similar “melt-up” moves. Tune in to hear how he’s thinking about positioning, risk, and opportunity as this semiconductor boom accelerates.

1797 | May 04, 2026
VRA Podcast: Market Tells—Bullish Signs Amid Global Unrest – Kip Herriage – May 4, 2026

Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast! Today, Kip Herriage takes us through a down day in the markets, driven by renewed tensions in the Middle East and rising interest rates. He’ll break down why the VRA system remains bullish, but just shy of a perfect score, and what’s needed to push it to new highs. Kip Herriage discusses the interconnectedness of the housing market and interest rates, his bold GDP forecasts, and why he remains unwaveringly optimistic about both the economy and the stock market—even as geopolitical risks linger. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.