In today’s episode, Kip dives deep into the markets hitting fresh all-time highs, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 continuing their impressive melt-up. He highlights the explosive gains of Nvidia as it closes at another record high, cementing its place as the king of semiconductors. Kip also discusses why he believes we’re in the midst of a powerful bull market, defying the usual “August-September-October” bearish seasonality warnings dominating Wall Street’s headlines.

Don’t look back to the market is closed. Good Monday after everyone Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day. Hope your weekend was fantastic as well. A lot happening in the market this week. A lot happened today as well. Let’s get right to it. First of all, all time highs.

Well that’s kind of the theme, isn’t it? Kind of repeating pattern. What happened again today? Both Nasdaq S&P 500 both closing once again at all time highs. The semis finished just off all time highs. The semis by the way were up nicely today as just off all time highs. But doesn’t matter because Nvidia, the king of the semis also hitting another all time high today. What a remarkable, I mean just the story, of course, everyone knows it. Look at the chart of Nvidia. It’s gone parabolic from the April 7th bear market lows up another 2% today.

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All time high market cap is now $4.3 trillion. It’ll be the first 5 trillion dollar company. I mean I don’t know what’s stopping at this point. It’s red hot when you get, when you get breakouts to all time highs. You have, you know, you got blue skies. There’s absolutely no one that owns Nvidia. It’s got a loss in it. And that’s when these moves can get a little crazy.

And that’s the market that we think we’re in. You know, we’ve been telling you that we’re in a, we believe we’re in a melt up bull market. Why would we change our two now? That’s what’s going on here by the way. Get ready to hear this. You probably Tyler, I were just talking about this. You’re probably already hearing this. Especially if you follow the markets closely. August is a tough month.

August is August tough month. September 2nd and then of course October crash month. So we’re coming up in a three month cycle here. That could be tough. Literally everybody is talking about from an analytic point of view, seasonality point of view, this is not a great time to be in the market. Is it going to be a self fulfilling prophecy? Because everyone’s talking about it. Maybe they’re starting to sell now going into the end of July or because everyone knows about it. Is the market going to keep melting up? I would say the market’s going to keep melting up.

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I’m going to share this chart tomorrow morning with you in that for a very letter. This is our favorite market timing chart. There is no better market timing chart. It is the semis to the SPF 100 and from the birth of quantitative easing in 2008, 2009 in the US at least. Of course it kicked off in Japan about a decade before. But from the birth of QE here in the US if you got the direction of the semis right then you nailed the direction of the market. And so right now, as you’ll see in this chart tomorrow, it’s relative strength chart, the semis continue to lead. I mean they’ve essentially gone parabolic.

Nvidia of course is a good snapshot of that why that’s happening. But again we’ll keep close on it because this market has had a hell of a run. I don’t think it would surprise anybody if we had a shakeout. But if we, even if we do, even if we do, I don’t think we’re going to. But even we have a shakeout, I think it’s going to be small. I don’t think it’ll be big and I think it’d be very short lived. I think it’s a lot of. I don’t know, I don’t think I know there’s a lot of money on the sidelines.

Look at all this again. Seven, seven and a half trillion dollars sitting in money market accounts. That’s just bank money market accounts doesn’t include what’s sitting in brokerage firm money market accounts. And you’ve got again, retail investors had backed up the truck on every one of these dips we’ve had. But that’s not been the case for institutional investors. And now, and that’s the thing, right? These institutional big money boys, they think they’re smarter than everybody else and they’re not because they never beat the markets. It’s the damnedest thing you’ve ever seen. They lose the markets 90% of the time.

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I think a lot of people don’t know that, but yeah, they’re not good. But they get caught up in the group think and they’re all hearing the same thing. So right now what are they hearing? August is a bad month. September, we could be coming up on a tough stretch here. They’re all saying the same thing. They’re all thinking the same thing. It’s this dangerous group think. The same things take place at the Federal Reserve.

This is why. Same thing takes place in economists. This is why we’ve told you for forever. My mentors taught me this. Tyler and I live by this. Whenever we see the vast majority of Wall Street Economists saying one thing like we’re going to have a recession. What do we know? The very last thing that’s going to happen is going to be a recession. So, you know, you can’t ever say it’s 100%.

There are no locks. But that’s about as good as it gets when you get the vast. Look at what’s happened with Trump’s trade policies. Every economist said, I mean, literally every economist said that they were afraid not to say that this because they’d be shouted by their co workers. Everyone said Trump’s tariff policy is going to cause inflation. No, it has not. Matter of fact, we’ve had five months in a row of disinflation compared to what the numbers were expected to be, Ben. Just the opposite of what Wall street told us to expect.

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And then it also says it’s going to hurt the economy. You seeing any evidence of that? Because we’re not. Again, we continue to project and forecast, as we have been now for several months, that within six to 12 months, which is now probably four to 10 months, that we’re going to have 5% GDP growth here in the United States again. Right now, I think according to the Atlanta Fed, I think we’re like 2 1/2 percent. We’ll get an updated reading on that this week on, on, on second quarter gdp. Looking forward to seeing that. But look over the weekend, what do we get? We got another big trade deal. Of course, by now it’s old news, I’m sure, but I’ll just cover the broad strokes here.

European Union and the US Got together. Trump there personally put the Trump touch on it. Just incredible with this guy. And then he hosts everyone at his castle in Scotland on his territory. It’s the damnedest thing. I hope everyone’s enjoying. Even if you’re not a fan of the president, hope you’re enjoying what we’re living through because this is rare air. We are very, very lucky to be alive and living into in today’s world.

We have two people that history books will be writing about hundreds of years from now and we see them every day as Donald Trump and Elon Musk. And that’s just a list of a couple.

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But I think they’re one and two. You put them in any order you think? I think you got to put Trump 1 and Musk 2. But yeah, we live through very special times here. I think, again, obviously I’ve said this a thousand times. There’s never been a better time to be an optimist than right now. And you have so many people that are so pessimistic, so scared stuff that another shoe’s gonna drop. And again, it’s not that we don’t understand it. We do, we’ve had four bear markets in seven years.

We do understand it, that’s unprecedented. But the point being at some point you gotta stop listening to the wrong people, you know, and again it’s, you know, it’s every, it’s all our own money, you know, we’re free to do with what we wish. One of the things we take very personally here and we’re serious about is educating people as to what we see the truth being, because there’s just not much of that out there. There’s a lot of fear mongering, you know, again, a lot of the mainstream media as we all know is fake news. And with this Trump deal, with this EU deal, they’ve been forced to admit that they were wrong and that the, you know, even throughout the European Union, 20, 27 countries strong, they’re all admitting that the US got the better, got the big time, got the better of, of the EU. And so you know, 15% tariff that doesn’t include by the way, 50% tariff still in place on steel and aluminum. And now the EU is opening up, right, opening their, their imports to US autos committed to purchase 750, $750 billion in energy, energy from the US and agree to, to, to agree to invest $600 billion in the US Trump did all this and he is revolutionizing the US economy, there’s no doubt about it. And that’s one of the reason, one of the reasons we remain so incredibly bullish.

And again that’s why I think the melt up is going to continue. What else today I was going over the list, I wrote this up this morning, I was doing some research this weekend and looking at the things that Trump has accomplished in six months. I got to read a few of these because I think, I think it’s, I think it’s worthy of spending a few minutes on this, this deal with Europe, right, for that got the trade deal with Japan obviously markets at all time high. Largest mineral tax cut in history because again the BBB was cemented in place. Now that is permanent for its free in dollars. And this is very few people talk about this. $4 trillion now in new private sector CapEx capital expenditures. $4 trillion, that’s over the next five, six years, massively bullish for stocks and for the economy.

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Southern border closed, you know, and he was speaking today in Europe and About, you know, what got him elected. And he said, more than anything is why I had a horrible, you know, I had a horrible, horrible guy competition that he was so bad that replaced with someone they didn’t. But it was that he shut down the border. That’s it. It was immigration. And of course, he’s saying that when he’s on European soil, when, now, this is something they’re battling. And he also attacked them today about these stupid windmills, these wind turbines that are not environmentally, they’re horrible for the environment. Number one, they’re hideous to look at.

All they do is kill birds and whales and other sea life. Trump made the point today. Again, if someone in the US Kills a bald eagle, you’re going away. But if a wind turbine kills one, there are no consequences. Again, this is the kind of thing the left made famous. It just makes no sense. That’s part of the. Driving is crazy.

They want to drive us all crazy. That’s how you really convert people to communism. I can’t take anymore. I’m going to give up the government. Just take care of me and I’ll just shut up. You know, I’ll just, I’ll stay home and I won’t, I won’t cause you any problems. Just make sure my, my family and I have a place to live with a roof over our head and we’ve got some food to eat and I’ll just shut up and get out of your way. That’s what’s really going on here.

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That’s how big the victory was that Trump won. Because otherwise we would have been Canada or we would have been the uk. No question about that in my mind. I think a lot of people agree with that. So, again, the border Trump, Elimination of dei, federal DEI done with, elimination of usaid, the slush funds. You know, we’re finding out. You know, again, I’m still not seeing prosecutions here. Where are those? We want to see that.

But at least these things have been shut down. Of course, Department of Education is gone. And Women’s sports, I mean, that’s. I think that’s a big deal. A matter of fact, I think it’s a huge deal. Where are the feminist groups? What a bunch of frauds and phonies these women are that say they’re feminist. You’re not feminist. You just love abortion.

That’s, that’s the only thing that they, they stand for. There’s nothing else they do to help women. And when Something does come up that’s important. Like men playing women’s sports, they just shut up. You know, I, I, I, I, Women should, honestly, women, men have, we have a lot to be embarrassed about, I’ll give you that. Women, you got a lot to be embarrassed about with the feminist movement. Why do you let them continue to represent you? Speak up, make your voices known. It’s embarrassing for all of us, but especially for women.

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We also Trump of course removed us from the Paris climate accords. Now the BBB is totally done and put to bed. And that’s again a big part of what’s driving this economic renaissance we got here. And that’s what it is. It’s an economic revival. We’re going to 5% GDP growth or better take it to the bank. It’s going to happen. I believe it happens by year end, if not the first quarter of next year will be there and this market will be a hell of a lot higher.

That’s why the market’s going up, folks. It’s all about earnings, it’s all about economic strength. And that’s what always driven markets. That’s what’s driving them right now. I, we’ve talked about this over the last week. I’ll just mention it quickly why the melt up can continue. First of all, the bear market’s over. That ended, ended April 7th.

That’s, that’s it. We’re now in a new bull market and new bull markets tend to take off and just go and they don’t give bearish pessimist people once a chance to get in and then now they’re trapped. Like market’s already at 40% which NASDAQ is 40%. How can I, how can I justify buying now?

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And that’s people get trapped as they just don’t get back in. Next thing you know the market’s up 150% in three years. Which is about what we’re going to be, this is going to be more powerful than the dot com bull market that’s been, that’s been our, our forecast now for three years. And we’ve been right, we’ve been the only people saying it. We’re the only people in the country that have been exactly right about this and we wrote a book to prove it. So the big Bribe. But that’s people are trapped and I think that’s why this market as much as anything, that’s why this market keeps going higher. And again this is going to be more powerful than the dot com bull market was.

Again, look what Trump’s accomplished in the first six months of his presidency. He’s got three and a half years left. Holy shit. What is he going to do? Is he going to do with the irs? I mean, this is what they’re talking about. They certainly should. It’s a criminal enterprise, right? 1913. Woodrow Wilson. What a horrible year.

What a horrible year. Irs, Federal Reserve. And the way senators are elected and the way that they serve again, it really transformed America in a. Not a good. Hey, Woodrow Wilson. By far the worst president in American history. No one Joe Biden. It’s Woodrow Wilson.

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Because he was just, I mean, he’s just a turnip. You know, he didn’t do anything anyway. How could he be bad? He know what’s going on. So I think we can get past that. I would say Joe Biden was probably worse than him. You know, I think that’s actually a pretty easy statement. Feminists, where we’re women talking about protecting your husband, I mean, that’s clearly elder abuse would happen with Joe Biden. So Trump’s first six months, I mean, he clearly wants to be remembered as the best president of our times.

But to do that, the stock market has got to rock and roll, as does the economy. Again. That’s what he’s committed to. And again, the bbb, right, Big beautiful bill. All done. Now remarkable tariff and non tariff trade deals continue to take place. China will be next. They’re meeting this week with China.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see something come out soon. Trump wants to get this stuff done off the table so he can move on to the next thing. We’ll find out what that’s going to be. I think it’s going to be pretty magical because he wants again, he wants the economy steamrolling ahead. And if you’ve noticed anything about this, this Trump in his second term, he’s getting what he wants. And if you, and if you don’t like it, it will, he’ll, he’ll run over you and ignore you completely. He’s just going about his business as no one can stop him because no one can. That’s, that’s the guy right now that’s running things.

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If you want to bet against him, be my guest. You will lose. Be my guest again. This is the time to be aggressive, long and strong. This is, the market’s going to continue to go higher and you ain’t seen nothing yet, folks. You ain’t seen nothing yet. A hundred thousand of the Dow before Trump leaves office. No, but 20, 30.

Yeah, okay. That’s been our target for some time. I don’t know. We’re 45, just under 45,000 now.

Can Trump double more? Just more than double the Dow Jones in three and a half years? I don’t know. What do you think? Should be fun to watch. Wait till rates come down and that $34 trillion is trapped in home equity. Wait till it starts coming out of housing and going into other investments, including stocks and Bitcoin and other houses. It’s going to be insane, folks. That’s why he’s fighting so hard to get rates down and that’s why the Fed doesn’t want to do it, because they know with the midterms coming up, if they can keep the economy somewhat restricted and keep the growth from being too insane, then they might have a chance to win. And again, the Federal Reserve is the deep state. It is the Democrat Party.

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They’re all. It’s not Democratic. Right? It’s the Democrat Party. Stop saying Democratic. It’s a, it’s a, it’s. You sound stupid when you say Democratic Party. We’re not the Republican Credit Party. No, we’re the Republicans, they’re the Democrats.

There’s nothing Democratic about the Democrat Party. Get it right, folks. I’m talking to everybody that, that has any kind of a role politically. These are important things you’ve got to start getting right. Words matter. And the way we phrase things absolutely does matter. And that’s why they, again, that’s why the deep state doesn’t want Trump to have the lower rates and a stronger economy because it’s going to affect the midterms. They know if they lose the midterms, they’re really in trouble.

And so, you know, that’s, again, that’s going to be here before we know.

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So again, a lot of reasons this melt up is going to continue. We’ve been saying now for some time we are in the wild west of free market capitalism. We only person, we’re the only people we’ve heard saying that. I think it’s gonna, I think people look back and go, you know what, that, that actually meant something. The wild west of free market capitalism, where everything that takes place in business is in a gray area. It already is, folks. But now everybody has the same opportunity to go blow and go and accomplish what you’ve always wanted to as an entrepreneur, as an investor, go for it. Your government’s not going to get in your way and stop you now.

Your government’s not your enemy. If anything, there’s. Maybe they’re at least neutral now, right? Maybe they’re at least neutral. And if we do some of the irs, then we really can really make some progress here.

And then the Federal Reserve, I mean these are the things Trump has planned, I believe in his final three and a half years. That’s how you get a market that melts up, folks. Big, big things like that taking place. Trump’s just the guy to do it. All right, let’s take a look under the hood today. Again, again, all time highs today. Nasdaq S 500 but barely higher. Okay, Rust, Nasdaq was up 3/10 of a percent.

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But we did have slight losses in the Dow Jones today just down 64 points, down 1/10 of 1%. Rust 2000 today also down 2/10 of 1%. But I said a minute ago, what matters most? Nvidia up 2%.

The semis SMH up 1.9%. That’s the leadership that matters most. We did not have great internals today. Let’s cover those quickly with you here. They’ve not been great over the last week. They also haven’t been horrible, but they have not been great. Again, everybody’s looking at this August playbook and I, you can tell which way I’m leaning, right? I hope, I hope everybody, this is sending out. We’re all, no, here comes the worst three month stretch before we get into the best stretch of the year.

I just hope they get smoked because I, and I think they will. I think there’s too much money on the sidelines. The smart money folks, that’s us, knows what’s coming. 5% GDP growth is coming. 6%, 7% folks, is Cathie Wood again says 10 to 10% plus for a decade.

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People aren’t focused on what’s really happening. It’s not just Trump’s innovation revolution. It’s our five big pride megatrends, folks. It’s all, it’s all happening. Stay strong, stay long, stay bullish. I believe you’ll be very glad you did.

Internals today weren’t good. 2 to 1 negative advanced decline for both NYC and NASDAQ. We had 69% down volume for NYC, 64.7% down volume for NASDAQ. We did have 287 stocks in new 50 week highs and just 86 hit a new 50 week low. So again, 200 more stocks hitting a 50 week high. 52 week low. Sector watch Today also not very good. Uh, not a lot either way, frankly.

We had, what, three sectors finished higher on the day. Four finished lower. Excuse me, three sectors finished higher. Eight finished lower. Led the downside by real estate down 1.8%, materials down 1.4, energy up 1.2%. Again, big trade deal with the EU, buying a lot of several hundred billion dollars worth of our, our, our, our energy again. I just love the way he targeted these crappy windmills. That is, I love when a president in America is not afraid to go overseas and tell the truth.

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Basically telling them, you’ve been stupid people to build all these windmills. What’s wrong with you? Why were you listening to morons? I mean, how refreshing, how refreshing is that? And the great thing about it is, it’s when Trump is gone, look how deep our bench is. And I am a Republican now. I’ve been a lifelong independent. How could you, how could you not be? I guess I’m probably still independent. I have been my whole life, but obviously voting with Republicans 100% of the time. But how could you, how could you not be? Look at the bench that’s on the Republican side. Look at this deep bench.

I mean, who knows, we got 20 or 30 leaders on the Republican side. All would be better than anybody Democrats have. That’s why America has such a bright future, because it’s a common sense. It’s a common sense. It’s not about party, it’s not about ego. It’s not about I’m better than you. It’s it. We, we’re going to do what’s right for America.

We’re patriots. We have common sense. Let’s go, let’s do that. Get the government out of the way. That’s what’s going on here. And that’s, that’s the long term. When Trump is gone, it’s not going to matter, folks. His replacement is going to feel exactly the same way.

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So battle of the best ideas is going to keep happening. This is a culture war. We have won the culture war. It’s over. We won, folks. Yeah, you know what? Give yourself a little, man. You know, because it looked out for there for a while. That’s, that’s how big the election was.

That’s how big Trump has been for us. Technology also up again, like semi is up 8/10 of 1% today. So kind of a mixed bag there. But let’s look under the hood now for commodity index again. The dollar don’t talk about this too. The dollar, okay. We’ve been, we’ve been exactly right on this from the election. We told you the dollar was going to have go into a free fall because that’s what Trump wanted.

Again this is a non tariff trade barrier. It’s time to put a little reciprocal action, a little payback if you will against every country that’s taking advantage of us. And that’s what Trump wanted. That’s what he’s getting. But early this month, early July, the dollar did hit extreme oversold on steroids. That’s the most oversold that it gets on the various system. So we expected there to be a bounce. Now we’re getting that bounce.

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It’s not a big one but again it had a bit of an impact. There is a correlation between a dollar and gold. Not, not, not as strong as people might think. Not as strong as people, some people think it’s not that strong a correlation. It’s like 53% but it is a, it is a correlation that does matter and it hits from time to time. Gold today gold’s been a little soft folks. We’re still only what a hundred and we’re $137 from all time high. You know for gold this move higher is not going to stop.

This is just a little bit of pause. The charts are now backing off of being extreme overbought. Same thing for the miners. This is a fantastic. But every one of these pauses in gold in the minor silver 2 but silver does look that’s ready to go. These are, these are buying opportunities again Tyler’s reminding me into money supply all time highs. That’s only going to continue to grow.

And these are all buy signals for equities and for all inflationary assets. Gold today down 21 bucks an ounce at 3370. Silver today down 3 pennies at 38.32an ounce. Copper today down 2.8%.562 a pound. Crude oil today up almost 3% today 6697 still been trapped in 65 and 69 now for some time but again just under $67 a barrel now I think, I think, I think crude oils, I think oil is a good fly. I think energy stocks are a great buy here. We’ve been buying these, we’ve been buying housing stocks. We feel very good about these purchases here folks because the global economy is in fantastic shape.

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Guess what? We’re going to need a lot, we’re going to need a lot of oil to power the global economy. Bottom of the day Bitcoin just really trying to every can’t, every, every time it gets ready to break through to an old, a new all time high, which is 123,000, it gets hit a little bit. These wells have been selling but it’s being absorbed very quickly because the supply demand story here is just there’s nothing like it. There’s never been anything like it. And that’s the best way to understand what bitcoin is. The best supply demand story of all time. Then I can make more than 21 million, buy it, put it away. You’ll be glad you did because it’s going to a million.

Then it’s going to keep going after that. Not saying it’s. There won’t be some good trading opportunities too.

But if you don’t want to trade it, no problem. Just buy it and hold it. We, we, we’re a little more aggressive there. It served us very well over time, but who knows right now Bitcoin right Now, last trade $118,110 Bitcoin. All right folks, that’s it for today. Hope you had a great day, an even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.