Welcome to the VRA Investing Podcast, hosted by Kip Herriage. In today’s episode, Kip Herriage wraps up the week with an upbeat assessment of the markets, celebrating October’s solid gains and looking ahead with optimism to No ...
Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Friday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herridge here with the daily VR investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Hope your weekend’s going to be fantastic as well. Let’s get right to it. A lot of good things to talk about today. Market closing higher again today.
Got some good analytics to talk about. Really good stuff as far as what should happen in November. Remember, we’re entering now the the most bullish six months of the year and those bullish compressed time frame of the year from here to year end. So a lot of reasons to be bullish we’ve had. Now let me give you the data. This was before the close that I haven’t run the numbers after, after the close here, but this will be pretty close for the month of October again, which is not always a great month. You know, it’s crash month, right. And we still finished the gains across the board.
SP 500 is going to finish up more than 2% for the month. NASDAQ more than 4% for the month. Good month for Nasdaq. Dow Jones is going to finish up the month about 2.45% again. Now the dowage. This is now the the sixth straight month that the Dow Jones has been positive. First time that’s happened since 2018. And I’ve got some good data here too.
[00:01:11]:
Let’s give you these analytics from the the months of sell in May. So the six months after selling ban go away. You’ve all heard that, right? Which is not held up well at all. But all six months of selling May, post selling May had been higher. Now it’s only happened four times in history. Pretty crazy, right? When that’s happened in the past. The month of November has been positive. It’s been higher all four times with an average gain of better than 5%.
Kip Herriage [00:01:42]:
That is extremely bullish for the month of November. You may have seen like the talent I were just talking about all the, the bears out there, a lot of them now, a lot of, a lot of bears jumping out of the woodwork, which is fantastic. It is exactly what you want to see. But the internals this week weren’t great. You know, we had three straight days of internals that weren’t great. One day they were actually pretty bad. And now apparently that is in that has initiated what’s called a Hindenburg omen. Doesn’t that sound ominous? A Hindenburg omen.
Kip Herriage [00:02:13]:
That sounds so scary, doesn’t it? Makes you want to buy puts, doesn’t it? And you get a lot of bears that are really globbed onto this. But when you look underneath the surface, it’s just nothing. It’s, it’s a. Yes, yes, it did, it did. I should say it has prefaced a couple of really bad cycles talking about like crash periods, but we’re talking about over a very long time frame. And yeah, it’s not a mystery that if you get bad internals, bad things can, can follow. But that’s just one reason, that’s just one reason to possibly, maybe, maybe be bearish when we have a laundry list of items to be bullish about. And so that’s why we have our VR investing system.
[00:02:56]:
As you know, you know, we, we, we, we, we look at things without emotion with that and we just track what, what the internals are telling us. Right. Of our 12 fundamental and technical screens. And right now we’re at 10 out of 12 screens bullish. And that’s back up the truck territory, as we’ve been telling you over the last week. It went from 9 to 10 screens bullish. And so again, you know, we’re always looking, we’re looking for, you know, for, for yellow lights, you know, anything flashing, get your attention for the, or possibly move the other direction. And yeah, these internals weren’t great this week.
Kip Herriage [00:03:27]:
They’re much better today, by the way, which is really going to probably upset the bears when they see this. But, but still, this is a, this is a great setup here. Dollar’s just telling me, you know, how compared to a dot com, which of course everyone loves to say, well, wait till the dot, Bob, because it’s coming. There’s going to be so many people expecting a crash. So many people really, really think this market is extremely overbought. The data just doesn’t tell you that. When you compare the leading companies of today to wherever you were in.com, where, you know, a lot of these companies didn’t have earnings, but the ones that did were trading at PE multiples 150, 200. And you know, that, that was, that was a bubble.
Kip Herriage [00:04:07]:
That was clearly a bubble. I lived through it. I remember it well. We’re not seeing that now. These companies are trading with, with reasonable PEs like Nvidia of about 30. And again, their earnings are growing again. Tyler just gave me a great, a great analogy on this. Their earnings are still growing and they’re growing handsomely, as we saw this week.
[00:04:26]:
Both Apple and Amazon reported good earnings last night. Again, Amazon today up 10% on the day. That’s a big company jumping 10%. Apple opened higher. It did finish flat on the day, but still Apple’s expected. They say they believe, they believe they’ll have their best December ever in history. And they’re very excited about their Apple 17, but they’re really excited about Apple and this is something we’re doing some work on here, not that we’re going to recommend it. Apple’s not really know for big cap, mega cap names.
Kip Herriage [00:04:57]:
We love Nvidia, of course we own that, we own Tesla. You know, those are, those are the ones, the high growth that we really want to own. But Apple, the next upgrade cycle. Now again this doesn’t take place until next September but the markets are a discounting mechanism so we got to get in front of these things, right? If you wait till the news comes out, it’s too late. The moves already happened. But the next upgrade cycle for next year for the Apple 18 is expected to be extraordinarily good. They’ve got a lot of very cool things coming out. Of course they’re finally going to implement AI into their phones.
[00:05:27]:
That’s been a big miss for them. But it’s Apple, you know, I mean they’re just of cash cow and you know, who doesn’t have Apple devices? I don’t think I never have one. You know, I thought about maybe switching to Google from time to time. Just can’t do it. Number one, I’m not a Google fan. The phone might be a little better in some ways now, but everything we have is on Apple and I’m sure that’s probably the same for you and so, but they do need some good upgrades. I think those are coming and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Apple is a very hot stock over the next year. And again that’s the key market leader as well.
Kip Herriage [00:06:02]:
Some more, some more good analytics here, let me, let me just find this for you here. Now I’ve lost my, lost my place here. Oh well, you know what, if not to be, I’ll come back to it but again it’s been, it’s been a good month. November should be a very good month. Now we’re entering again the best time frame for the market, especially the best time frame for tech stocks and, and small caps in the year and should do extraordinarily well. They finally broken out all time highs. Charlie looks very good here. We expect the small caps to have a big run.
Kip Herriage [00:06:39]:
Also some news today about Tesla which you, you may have seen. Joe Rogan, Elon Musk did another Joe Rogan podcast that I have not yet Seen it, I’ve seen clips from it. And one of them, Musk, is talking about the Roadster. Now, if you don’t know about this, this has been their long rumored car that’s going to come out. He in and, and must said today on Rogan that they expected to have the demo by the end of this year. Now, that’s not that far away and they’re hinting that it’s going to be a flying car. That’s. That’s what the clear hint is from Elon Musk and he’s just made a quote here.
[00:07:17]:
Let me give you the quote. We’re getting close to demonstrating the prototype. One thing I can guarantee is that this product demo will be unforgettable. I think it has a shot at being the most memorable product unveiled ever, hopefully before the end of this year. This is some crazy technology we got in this car. Is it even a car? It looks like a car, but if you took all the James Bond cars and combined them, it’s crazier than that. There’s. I don’t know.
Kip Herriage [00:07:42]:
In our lifetimes, there’s been a better huckster, if you will, than Elon Musk. And I say that in with all love, but he is a crazy good marketer of his brands. The advantage to Musk is that it may take longer than expected for his, the stuff he talks about to come to life, but when he comes to life, it, it all comes to life. It. It all works. And he’s obviously. I don’t know if there are enough superlatives to describe Elon Musk or especially the way that I feel about him. And again, we’re big fans of the stock here.
Kip Herriage [00:08:17]:
Of course, stocks are in a good run. Matter of fact, the stock today closed right at the highest of day today. And I think this interview with Joe Rogan has something to do with it, because if they come out, the Roadster comes out and is even half of what they’re talking about mean? Look out. And that’s. Remember, with Tesla, there are a number of things happening here. We got the, of course, the autonomous vehicles and you’ve got Robo Taxi coming out again. They go into full production on the Robotaxi next. I believe he said next Feb, February or March.
[00:08:48]:
That’s not second quarter. I’m sorry, second quarter next year, not that long away, not that far away. New models. Optimus obviously goes into production next year. So a lot of reasons to like this stock. And you got Tesla Energy, you got Tesla AI. And then also for you, like for those of you like to time the markets like we do and time your investments, Tesla’s pretty stock to own here. November is the number one month of the year for Tesla with gains of 11.8% of the time and up 73% of the time.
Kip Herriage [00:09:24]:
So big win rate with again more than almost 12% gains for the month. So looking for Tesla to have a very good month and getting very close to, to a lot of things coming with this company because once, once Robotaxi is out, you know, once it, once it’s going to be all over the country and it won’t take long. Once it’s released in some states, other states, you know, consumers will just demand it be, and, and then, you know, look, if you’re owner of, if you own Uber stock or Lyft stock, or if you somehow believe Waymo is going to be Tesla’s competition, I’m sorry to say you’re going to be disappointed. It’s, it’s, it’s not going to be a great run for you. Tesla is the play here and retail. Figure this out. That’s what I love about Tesla, frankly, institutional investors are asleep at the wheel, although Adam Jonas isn’t. Adam Jonas and Morgan Stanley raised his price target on Tesla to 800 today.
[00:10:20]:
He used to not like this company. That’s changed in a very, very, very short period of time. He spent some time with Elon Musk and got to tour some of the things they’re working on and especially with autonomous vehicles that he’s made a complete turn about his thoughts on Tesla. Get 800 now is his new price target. Our price target 2028 of course is 2000. That’s going to be low. Are you in price target, it means 598. This technical target, I think that’ll be low.
Kip Herriage [00:10:45]:
I mean again, we’re at 456 now, so you know, we’re not that far away from it. Now again, November should be a great month. What else here? I, I, I, I. There’s something on my mind that I know I’m missing here that I really wanted to talk about. I’m just going through my notes here. One second. Oh, I’ll be on Charles Payne show on Monday. And I think, I think, and I’m not going to tell you the name today because that’s for our VRA members here.
Kip Herriage [00:11:20]:
I think I’ll be talking about our new crypto recommendation. If you’re with us, you know what I’m talking about already. It’s been, it’s Had a good week, let’s just say and it’s got the attributes, the same important attributes as bitcoin has of course with long term Bitcoin fans from $2,000 done very well. There’s this one without mentioning the name is in the same halving cycle through a halving every four years like, like bitcoin, it’s got the same supply cap so it’ll never have more than 21 million coins in existence. The difference here is this one has utility in the form of something called subnets. And I’ll leave it there for now but I believe waiting for final approval from Charles Payne on this. But I believe, I believe we’ll be talking about this on Monday show again, Charles Payne’s making money on fox business at 2:00 Eastern. And I’ll, I’ll, I’ll have that all confirmed for you for Monday’s letter.
[00:12:16]:
Right. All right, let’s go ahead and get you on your way for the weekend. Let’s talk about the internals today. Again the internals had not been good. Well that all changed today. We’ve had again three straight days of internals that weren’t great and yeah, better today. Keep it short and simple. Both NYC and NASDAQ had positive advanced decline right at about one and a half to one up volume NYSE was 62.5%.
Kip Herriage [00:12:45]:
A volume for NASDAQ was 70%. Good day here. We had slightly more stocks hit a 52 week low than a high. But just, just by, just by a few, not, not something to be concerned with at all. Sector watch today then consumer discretionary, which of course is that, that’s the tell, right? It’s like the semis, if the semis are rocking and rolling, you know that’s a sign that you, it’s a risk on environment. Same thing with consumer discretionary say up 4% for obviously Amazon is in that list. 4% today we had five sectors finished higher, six finished lower. The downside materials down 18% again.
Kip Herriage [00:13:21]:
December discretionary up four 4% today. Very good day there. And our sector watching me, that was our sector watch in our commodity watch today. You know, gold again after getting smoked. We, we’ve been sharing this data with you. When gold loses 10% or more in a six day time frame that’s happened 10 times over like 40 plus years. When that happens the next two months are higher 100 of the time with an average gain of like 8, 8 and a half percent. So again we’re long term gold bugs here and certainly the, the Little correction we had doesn’t change that.
[00:13:58]:
Gold Last trade now $4015 an ounce, unchanged on the day. Silver today down 7.10 of a percent. 4828. I went and saw my gold, my gold dealer today, and he really likes silver here. He. He’s. And sonny been in the business for forever. He’s got a pretty good feel for things.
Kip Herriage [00:14:17]:
He really, really likes silver here. He said, of course, the problem is how do you store it? If you buy in quantity, what. What are you going to do with it? You know, there’s a lot of boxes to bury in your backyard. We get silver, last trade, 4828. Copper today. Flat on the day as well. $5.11 a pound. Crude oil today up 34 cents a barrel at $60 and 90 cents.
[00:14:37]:
And finally the day bitcoin got. Got down to a low of like 106,000. Last night, rallied a bit today up 2%. Now the last 24 hours. Last trade, $109,742. All right, folks, that’s it for today. Listen, have a great weekend. If you celebrate Halloween, have a great time.
Kip Herriage [00:14:56]:
Make sure you give the kids a lot of candy to ruin their teeth. And we’ll see you back here again Monday after the close.
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