In today’s episode, Kip takes us through a powerful midweek market wrap. Kip reflects on another strong performance from the markets, diving into the ongoing debate around seasonality, market timing, and why his team at VRA remains bullish despite the cautionary tales from “seasonality bears.” He discusses the importance of a disciplined approach to investing and how systematic monthly dollar cost averaging in their top growth stocks has become a game changer by removing emotion from decision making. Kip also revisits his conviction that the bear market ended in early April, comparing the current recovery to the post-pandemic rally and making a bold case for why trying to time exits based on seasonal charts could be a mistake right now. He touches on striking topics from the mechanics of inflation, interest rates, and America’s “melt-up” moment, to the impact tariffs have or rather have not on inflation. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Wednesday after everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Markets had another strong day today. You know, listen, seasonality, you know, look, it’s still early August has just really started. But if you, you know, follow analytics much and seasonality, if you’re online much social media, you know the, the market timing guys, we of course do market timing here as well. But we, seasonality is just a very, it’s, it’s a component of how we time the markets.

But I wouldn’t even say it’s more than 20% and it really depends when it is. Okay, there are some timeframes. You go, you know what this is when you must own stocks. There’s some time frames. You’re like, this is a dangerous time to own stock. This is not that. But there are a lot of market timers out there that are really, really saying this is going to be a bad, it’s going to be bad. August, September, you know, of course then October’s crash month.

[00:00:52]:
So historically it’s not a great three months. What have we done? If you’re with this, you know, we have not taken any profits. We paused our BO on some of our, our most overbought positions. Our, our, we call our top growth stocks VRA10 baggers. We, we buy those every month as part of a, a systematic monthly dollar cost averaging program. And it’s, I gotta tell you, it’s, it’s been a game changer for us here at the vra. It’s been a game changer for me personally because it removes the emotion from your short term investing because I’m not trying to time anything. Oh, the stock’s hot.

You feel like you’re gonna go, I gotta buy more. It’s up 10%, you know what I mean? And it’s just hard to resist that temptation. So we, we, we just have a very again, systematic approach to buying every month in our top positions and we’re long term based position builders anyway. So you know, it, it fits very well with that strategy. But a lot of these seasonal guy, seasonality guys and analytics guys are, they’re Bears right now and we know we’ll see what happens. I think that’s not going to work. I think that, here’s what I think. I doubt this is going to surprise anyone listening here.

The bear market ended on April 7 and this has kind of been our position since then. This looks like the plan recovery. It’s almost identical Folks, when the pandemic bear market was over within, I don’t have the numbers in front of me. It was like within within six, seven weeks. I’m sorry, it was, it was by July, August, okay, they begin the bear market ended back then 2020 in April or late March, and then we were back to all time highs in August. But the thing is, we didn’t just get back to all time highs, we kept going. SB 500 went up another 40% over the next like 15, 16 months. SBF 100 went up another 40%.

[00:02:54]:
Nasdaq went up another 70%. And so I think trying to time the market based on seasonality, meaning you’re going to be out or in, I think that is a mistake. But again, everybody’s got their own trading approach and style. I’m not telling you yours should be what you think it should be, right? What works for you, what fits your personality. The worst thing, I think I’ve seen this mistake so many times. I, I don’t, I honestly don’t think I’ve been guilty of this because I always know I, I enjoy this approach. This is what I, how I enjoy investing and I’m very comfortable with that. I think that’s, that’s why I’ve stuck to it.

But I see a lot of people kind of bounce around, you know, oh, that guy’s hot. So I’m gonna, I’m gonna follow what he’s doing or, oh God, the market, market’s just killing me. I just gotta get out, you know, and that emotional investing is, it makes it very hard to, to do two things really, to track your results. Right. Because you don’t, you really don’t even think about it. And how do you, how do you keep those records? Not as easy. And then secondarily, it really does mess up your returns because it gets in your head and you start, you start doubting yourself. But again, we think, and I believe, Tyler, that this thing is going to keep going like the pandemic, bottom dead and then on, but much greater because we got a lot of catching up to do.

I think Trump feels he’s still got like, I know he feels this way. He’s still got a lot of catching up to do for the first term because that guy got screwed. Now you can say he screwed himself all you want to and you would not be wrong, but that guy got screwed by the plan. Demic destroyed returns, destroyed everything. Everything. And again, that was toward the end of his presidency anyway. But that N.J. powell in 2018, Jay Powell, we Had a big, big move, higher going.

[00:04:39]:
And here comes Jay Powell Hiking rates 73 times to show Pat, to show Trump who’s boss. All right, that was a complete dick measuring contest. And you could say Trump does that with everybody. That’s expected. You shouldn’t be, shouldn’t be having that from your Federal Reserve chairman while on that topic. And I tweeted this out earlier today. Todd and I both just absolutely love this. It’s on, it’s on my X account.

I was just walking by the TV and Joe LaVornia and I had not seen him in a long time. I was wondering not too long ago what happened to La Bornia, because I think he does really good work. Now I know what he’s doing. He’s working in the Trump administration. He’s a top counselor, maybe probably the top counselor, advisor to Treasury Secretary Scott Besson. So he’s on Bloomberg and there are no accidents, right. I promise you. I was meant to see this.

I needed to see this. Because here’s a guy is a mainstream economist that I, I remember him always being a straight shooter. Now, he didn’t get everything right every time that you grieve them. And as most of you know, I don’t, I don’t get many of these things wrong. But Lavornia was very, I think, a very good guy. He looks a little, he looks a little cheesy, if I’m being honest, kind of guy. Big. He looks a little more normal now.

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He used to have like really big hair and kind of funky looking glasses. He looks more normal now. But check out the video on my X account. But here’s the key. He gave a whole segment with the guy on Bloomberg kind of grilling him there about what inflation is and what inflation isn’t. And he just stopped. The guy goes, listen, how do you phrase it? The economists as a whole just had this wrong. He said inflation is not impacted by growth.

We don’t have, we don’t. Economic growth does not cause inflation. And he said inflation is always a monetary phenomenon. Now I’m sure you’ve all heard that because that’s exactly right. Inflation is always about printing money and it’s also about, about, about credit as well. But frankly, it all stems from money printing. That is inflation. The very definition of.

And so the fact that you can’t get a mainstream economist, no one on the Fed would say what I just said. No, no one. Not, not a single one of them, because they know it, it really destroys their entire, you know, gimmick, right, that they’ve got going over there. Give me a second. There shouldn’t be a single member of the Federal Reserve that believes otherwise. Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon. Economic growth does not cause inflation. And so it’s because of this.

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And you again, you won’t, you won’t find a single Federal Reserve person. Now maybe the two dissenters are the ones now trying to get the Federal Reserve the chair job. Mike Levoine might be, he might be a candidate for the Fed chair. This was a strong interview that he did. Very strong, very commonsensical. You can see why Trump likes this guy and he gets it right. I think within a year, and this is not new part of this we said now for some time, we said this for like 2 months. So within 4 to 10 months, because originally it was 612 months.

Within 4 to 10 months, just call it a year to be safe. Within a year, 10 year yields will be less than 3.2%. Right now they’re 4.2%. Just a little 4.22, just a hair above that. So the 10 year yield will be down y 100 basis points, 1 full percent within a year. That’s my prediction. And economic GDP growth will be better than 5%. Both of those within a year.

I would say that is a not mainstream prediction, wouldn’t you? I think there’s some guys that are getting, they’re really starting to get super bullish now. And you’ve seen them and people, people have turned the people that really get it to turn. Edward Yardini, he’s turned. Ed was the second or third. I think we were among the first people that you call this a roaring2020s. There was somebody else that wrote a book. No, I’m sorry, that was us. We said it in the book.

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But roaring 2000 and twenties. Ed Yardeni, about a year after we first said it, started using that phrase. Others, of course, many others now are as well. But as far as that prediction, 10 year below 3.2% GDP growth better than 5%. I’ve not seen anyone else make that prediction. However, if you ask Cathie Wood, I bet you she would agree with this because she’s on record. GDP growth is about to soar and I don’t know that I’ve seen a prediction on 10 year yields, but I don’t think that would surprise her either. So we’ll see what happens.

But the question that I ask is if I’m right about that, how much higher is NASDAQ going to be? Two big sectors that are really, really impacted by rates, tech stocks and housing stocks. We happen to own both of these and we own them aggressively. And we just initiated a housing position like three weeks ago. I think we’re already up like 25, 30%. We use the leverage ETF. And I think that this, you look at the chart, I mean it’s a beautiful looking young chart for xhb, the home builder etf. Xhb, good looking chart. A bullish channel is forming, an ascending bullish channel back over the 200 day.

And you can see this is, this is, there’s, there’s big money starting to come in here now. The early big money, people like us that try to get the turn, we want to get the turn as fast, as close to the turn as possible. That’s where you make your most money. If you, if you wait, you know, sometimes you got to jump the gun a little bit of be a trend follower, which we are. But again, we’re 70% fundamental, 30% technical. So we always go with, with what we think is going to happen on the fundamental side first and then use the technicals as backup. And they work so well together. And I think that’s about right.

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70, 30 is about right. That’s the way the VR system is structured. And you know, housing stocks, just think about this. There’s just one thing that’s screwing up the housing market now and we all know what it is. 7% mortgages. Although it’s kind of funny, my first mortgage is over 10%, you know, and that’s just what we had to do, right? But the media loves to make it a big deal still. See, everybody I pretty much know owns a home. A lot of young people I know, Tyler and Sam own a home.

All their friends own homes. I mean, I guess it’s a problem. Look, it is a problem for a lot of people in second America. I don’t mean, I don’t mean to lie to that because it is a problem. But the interest rate on your mortgage is always going to be a problem. I think that’s all relative. I just do. And a lot of this is about sacrifice.

What are you willing to give up? You know, Cindy and I, I think for the first year, you know, we both still worked. Tyler, Tyler hadn’t been born yet. And you know, we stopped taking our lunch to work. I stopped going out to eat lunch and having my two martini lunch. I actually, I never did that except on Fridays. But yeah, we, we, there’s things we had to sacrifice, you know, and we did it happily because we knew we Wanted to, we had a home we wanted to build, and so we were able to make that happen. Quick story about that on my credit report. There was one.

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I don’t think I’ve ever told this story. There was one thing on my credit report that the guy called me up and he goes, it was a friend of mine, a mortgage broker. He said, look, we got a problem here, and you’re gonna have to take care of me. Like, whoa, what’s going on here? And he goes, on your credit report is a. You didn’t pay your gym club membership. And they, they, they, they, they put on your credit report and you owe them like four or six hundred dollars. It was something like that. And it was the one that went under.

Well, they’ve all been under a bunch, haven’t they? But the one that kept going under, it starts with a B. I don’t know. And I try to negotiate that every way I could to get out of that. And finally the guy’s like, look, we got to move forward here. You know, they’re, they’re ready to break ground or whatever. And so I wound up having to pay the whole thing off. The six, I think it was six, four, six hundred dollars, something. But yeah, they take that stuff seriously.

But yeah, we had to make sacrifices. And I think that’s just really, as you’re a young person, I think that’s pretty much what we all have to do, right? It’s just, you know, that’s when you start finding out, you know, what’s, what’s most important to you. What else today? Yeah, check out Joe Lavorney. That’s a great, that’s a great spot that he did on Bloomberg. Kind of interesting here. Tesla today, up almost 4%, back at 320 and just a hundred below that magical number that, that Musk loves. 420. And isn’t interesting that from the moment that Musk got his new compensation package, $30 billion in stock, there were other parts to it, but that’s, that’s the majority.

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30 billion in stock. From the moment that was announced, Tesla Stock is up 10%. Now, he got the stock awarded to him at a low price, lower than he would have. I’m sure there are probably options tied to it. Obviously there’s, there was struck at a lower price. I don’t have all these details. We’ll have to look into that because now I’m curious. And now, you know, if you saw this last night on, on, on X, Musk just basically replied to somebody and said, Yeah, I think $150,000 investment in, I think it’s what he said.

$150,000 investment in Tesla is going to make you a millionaire. I, I think that’s about right. And everybody’s running the numbers, you know, really? Okay. And now he’s getting much more optimistic about the stock. And, and, and I, I, I think that because they’ve been so quiet, Tesla’s been very, very quiet. On the outside of the robo taxi thing, they’re flashing some things about Optimus, the robot, but not very much. But there’s so many different. It was 17 divisions worth more than a billion dollars.

There’s so many things they’re working on that they just don’t talk about that. I think if Musk really decides to go on the war path and he’s got his PR team with him and starts just letting the public know what they’re working on. Because Tesla is an easy story to tell and it even easier story to understand and buy the stock on. Everyone knows it’s an EV company. No one wants to buy for that, which is probably the reason to buy it. That’s probably the reason to buy because there is no better EV company. Having owned a Tesla now for seven months, I can tell you I will never not own a Tesla. Yep, my Model S will go from zero to 60 in less than two seconds.

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That’s the fastest production car on the road. I love that fact. And you know, I’ve got the car up to pretty high speeds and it just feels like nothing. It happens so fast because there’s no, there’s no acceleration because, you know, it doesn’t shift gears right? No gears, it’s just boom and you’re gone. I love the full self driving component. I love driving the car. So I’m a little conflicted. When we first got the car, that’s all I did.

Let it drive me everywhere. And on Friday night we went to dinner, Cindy’s birthday. Saturday night was a dinner. And, and I did have a couple cocktails at dinner. I was like, I don’t have to worry about that. That’s kind of the hidden little secret of Tesla owners is that you can essentially be an alcoholic and drive your car and not worry about it. That’s actually not that funny now that I hear it come out of my mouth. And of course I’m tongue in cheek.

But I can promise you after talking to other Tesla owners, this is like an inside joke in the Tesla community. Okay. So it’s got all these great features. It was Built for a card lover and it’s just a great car to drive. But I think that they’ve been very quiet about so many things we’re working on. And if they ever just start letting the cat out of the bag on these things, look out above. And it won’t be long until we start getting reports in on Robotaxi, the safety reports, which of course they’re filed, you know, every day, I would imagine, multiple times a day. A lot of eyeballs on Tesla on this Robotax experiment.

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I think it’s down in seven states, is that right? Seven states, I think. And growing quickly. He’s still on record as saying that full self driving will be in place throughout the country by the end of next year, 2026, if that’s the case. Well, that obviously means Robo taxis in every state. And now we have people left and right buying a Tesla so they don’t have to drive anymore. And it’s funny because 50% of, according to reports, 50% of Tesla owners have never used the FSD feature. I know a lot of you own a Tesla. Have you not used it? Because again, first day when we test drove it, that’s what I wanted.

How does that work? I’m a real visual person, I don’t really manual, I don’t want to press button. Show me, show me right now how that works. It’s very easy and it’s, it’s pretty cool. But everybody knows, of course it’s optimist and it’s in its, in its autonomous vehicles. But there’s so many other things that again, their energy storage business is just killing it, just killing it. What they’re doing with batteries is, is, is revolutionary. And again, these are all things that will impact the future a lot more. But it’s a great story, great stock to own.

Kind of hard not to like Tesla, especially after what Musk did during the election. You know, maybe everything he did after the election was designed to get the stock price down so he can get his stock options and his shares at a cheaper price. Now if that sounds like a conspiracy theory, would it be the strangest conspiracy theory you’ve heard about billionaires and things they did to make or save money? No, it wouldn’t be the top hundred because this is actually something that may have happened here. It’s not outside the room possible at all. It’s realistic in fact. But yeah, Tesla is a great buy here. Our price target year end is still 500. We’ve never loaded that.

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And our 2028 price target is $2,000 a share. Right now, it’s 320 bucks a share. CNBC had a good piece out, said, I’m going to feature this in tomorrow’s letter about share buybacks again. These, they were supposed to be lowered this year. I remember saying, this is the first year. Share buybacks, maybe, you know, a little bit less. This tariff thing, you know. You know, it’s terrifying.

Pretty dangerous. And this could infect everything. And now, no, it’s going to be another monster year. Share buybacks. Why do you think every time we have a dip, who’s buying? Companies buying their own stock. A lot of it’s, you know, programmed. It’s just automatic. But I’m sure some stocks cheap.

Let’s load up. And then retail. Mrs. Watanabe’s just, I mean, legendary. What’s happening here with the retail community? It’s millennials, folks. It’s by and large, millennials. Boomers are following on their coattails. Trust me on this.

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We did the homework. It’s millennials. And that’s another reason the economy is in such great shape. Such. Such amazing shape. I am. I’m stunned. I think.

I don’t think that’s an exaggeration. I am stunned by the number of people that are bearish on the stock market and the economy. Really more. Not a lot of stock market bears, a lot of seasonality people. You know, there’s some people now, after we had just, what, three, three days that weren’t great. They’re already coming out. Say the tops are in types, but a lot of people bearish on the economy, including, like, Jay Powell. The economy’s struggling.

Its economy’s clearly slowing down. That was his last. We just did 3% GDP announced that morning, and Jay Powell’s out saying the economy is slowing down. Like, what? Seriously, What? You’re not stupid. You clearly are a bright person. So why are you doing. Are you just in the pocket completely of your masters? And that’s got to be the answer. I can’t think of any other reason that he would say things that he must know aren’t true.

[00:21:11]:
But there are a lot of people who are negative on the economy. We are not one of them. We put out a piece this week about tariffs and the truth about tariffs and why they aren’t causing inflation and why they’re not impacting the economy. And it’s just such a. When you think about it, you go, you know what? That makes sense. The America is the place to be. I covered this a bit this morning. We’ve talked about it a lot, have we not? America is the last bastion of free market capitalism on the planet, certainly among large countries.

Name another that’s anywhere close to us of size. You know, El Salvador’s, they got their shit together, right? But none of the EU countries, even though some are more conservative than others, they’re still part of the eu. So they have to act as one unit. So everybody wants to be here, they want to invest here, they want to be here. They certainly want their money here. We’ve got over a trillion dollars that’s come in, this is just through the end of May that have come into the economy to the United States from overseas. Just fund flows just piling in, buying American companies. But that doesn’t include the trillions coming in from what Trump is doing with tariffs and trade policy.

You saw Apple today. But anyway, finish the thought on tariffs because everyone wants to do business here. The negotiating power for American companies is sensational. So they go to these exporting countries going, you know what, you got to help me out here. I, I got to pay a 30% tariff. What can we do? And the American importers has got the leverage now to say, you can reduce your prices. Or, or we just, we, we can’t, we can’t, we can’t make it that terror unless you dramatically and drastically lessen your prices. And that’s happening, of course, because everyone has to sell here.

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You know, even if you don’t get a markup of 50 or 70%, you still, you’re still selling your stuff to America in bulk. And still prop. Gross margin is still 35%. What would these countries rather do? Not make that and then go somewhere else? No. What are they going to do? They’re going to do whatever it takes, whatever it takes to do business here. And Trump knows this. Trump knows America is the gold standard that everyone wants to and has to be here or watch their business get destroyed because they themselves are part of a socialist or communist system. So that’s the biggie.

And that’s also why prices aren’t being impacted, why we’re not seeing inflation show up in the data and we’re not going to. It’s no different that much from what Trump did first term. Remember, Trump had tariffs, inflation was less than 2%. He finished his term inflation like at 1.87% average. I think that was the average over, I think that was the average over his four years. It may, may have been last year 1.87, but it was very low. Average was low as well. So the, you Know Wall street and the analyst and certainly financial media certain more than others.

The bears have completely got the story wrong. Why do you think the market’s melting up again? Back to my original story. My original question. 10 years down to 3.2% within 12 months. And if GDP growth is past 5%, where are housing stocks? Where’s NASDAQ going to be? Folks? We had some years in the dot com melt up and people think it can’t happen again. They’re wrong. Maybe we’ll be wrong. Hey, I’ll.

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The thing about me is if we’re wrong, I’ll admit it. But we tend to get the big stuff right. And this is a big call from us. But, but we’re confident in it. 5% GDP. I, I think that, I think that could happen by year end again. We’re, we’re 3%. We just had that reported.

Right. Atlanta Fed just reported their estimate for Q3 earnings. I think it was 2.5%. But you know, they’re all over the place and they’ll catch up. It can be fun to watch and it’s going to be responsible for a major move. Higher corporate earnings drive everything. Right. But now we have corporate earnings plus animal spirits.

The animal spirits of doing business or living in the US this is what’s being discounted. Such a. I, you know, something really surprised me. This surprised me. The more people will see this. It doesn’t surprise me as much as, as, as Rona did. The plan Demic and the, the jabs especially. Okay.

[00:26:09]:
Because there ain’t no way I was taking one of those. And I know a lot of people were forced to do it and there should be lawsuits. Anybody forced to do this to keep their job or whatever. Should they? They should. They should. Y’. All. I’ll get a.

If they had to take the jab, give everyone, give every one of them a million dollars. I don’t care if it bankrupts the country. I mean this is the way our justice system is supposed to work. You’re supposed to be taken care of when you’re totally screwed by your own government. And that’s what this was. But, but Tom. And I was like, no, this is all bogus and there’s no way we’re taking. What are you talking about? You know, I mean we’re independent contractors and small business owners, so that’s not something we had to worry about.

But a lot of people we know did. And it’s just infuriating. Very hard to have that conversation with people too. I’m sure You’ve noticed this very hard to have the conversation about the jabs, about what they’d be doing to people at the time. Are you going to take it or not? It was a very personal thing and I think they knew that, right? The powers that be, these MFers. Okay. And the evil, evil, evil people knew that. That’s how we work as proud Americans.

[00:27:12]:
We handle our business and we don’t like somebody else telling us how to live our lives or what to do or what shot to take. It’s just you couldn’t close family but anybody else, it was very hard to have the conversation. And again they know that. Right? And it’s one of the reasons they do it, get away with it. But the fact that more people don’t see what’s happening in the economy really does surprise me. I know it surprises Tyler too. We talk about it all the time. I’m not saying everything is hunky dory right now, but what I am saying is the first America has been hunky dory for some time and now the second America is going to have a chance to start getting well and bringing mortgages sharply lower.

Obviously the fed funds rate is dropped, it impacts everything. Credit card rates, car loans, everything starts coming down. And so for a lot of people, if they could just get an extra couple hundred dollars a month, their life is pretty good. They can survive. At least a lot of people that just can’t. And I always feel guilty talking about second America like, you know, like, like they, like they have a lot of choices. I come from that second America so I understand it. But I think that’s actually why I can talk about it because I understand that mindset.

You know, we didn’t know we were poor, we just knew we didn’t have much but we didn’t care. You know, we had each other, right, and our friends and that’s all that mattered growing up. But boy, once you get, once you get later in high school and college that, that keeping up the Joneses things becomes very real, does it not? That’s a, that’s a constant never ending battle. It really is. And it’s a big reason why countries in the shape it’s in. But the bigger reason of course is Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve is responsible for everything wrong with this country, financially speaking. We know the obvious.

[00:29:02]:
US dollars lost 98% of its value since the Fed was created in 1913 by the worst president in history, Woodrow Wilson, IRS, Federal Reserve same, same year. But beyond that, just think about this. And I, I gave this this exact speech at every event that I did for Wealth Masters, you know, it was mine, Carl Bessie’s company. Every speech that I gave, I would kind of wrap the final day with like an hour and a half presentation. And I just loved it. I hated it, having to get up there because I’m not that kind of person. But man, it was so much fun going because these were great. These were like minded people and they were like they were getting it with me.

You know, a lot of head nodding and some clapping. It really gets you going, right? And I, I researched this story and told us three times. I still know it by heart. 30, 40 years ago. One income. And I know this because I experienced this growing up. My parents didn’t make so much money. My mom stayed home, my dad was a prison guard.

We didn’t, we didn’t have anything. But she stayed home because one income got the job done. Why does it take two now? It’s because the Federal Reserve. There is no other reason. It’s our currency debasement. It takes two jobs to make the same take home money. Everything costs so much more. That’s the Federal Reserve, folks.

[00:30:36]:
That’s where all the anger should go. It is. They are evil. They are evil creatures. You can make the case that a lot of good has come from the Federal Reserve. A lot of economic growth. It’s hard to argue that frankly, but again, after inflation, the damage done to the country doesn’t make up for it. What it’s done, of course, is make the 1/10 of 1% unbelievably wealthy.

That’s the one thing that we know. It’s done. All right, what else today I want to talk about just real quickly here about GDX and gold Goals Silver. I wrote stuff this morning too. I’ve been writing a lot. I’ve been in a real writing mood and I feel like I’m. I feel like I’m putting some good stuff out. I hope I’m helping people, hope those of you that are with us here, I hope that you’re getting some enjoyment out of it and I hope it’s helping you in some way.

I write about what I know, you know, at least what I think I know. But I write about what I know and I try to stay in my lane to at least some degree. But I know this stuff and I certainly know that precious metals and miners for our new folks here in 2003 and my ad left Wall street, took a couple years off and then got requests from subscribe old clients of mine. Hey, what are you doing? You know, the market. NASDAQ down 75% from the dot bomb. Hey, what are you doing? What do you like, are you investing again? And we just, those conversations started happening. So I got, I got the itch. I hadn’t bought a stock for two years.

[00:32:01]:
I got the itch and I started seeing out an email to, to post to ask for it. And then I realized, okay, they will pay me 10 to 20. These are institutional accounts, some retail as well. But these are, you know, these were like funds and bankers I used to work with and they, they, they came to appreciate my views. So on, on some things more than others. But on top market timing. Because the thing I did with my mentors, it just works. As you’ve seen here, if you’ve been with us, it works.

And it’s, it’s out of the, it’s out of the mainstream, right? We, we are, we are unique in the way we do things. There’s a lot of people that feel like we do. Don’t get me wrong, you’re probably sitting there shaking your head because that’s maybe why you’re here. This is the way you’ve always seen things too. Or you like the fact that Tyler and I see it this way. Whatever. Again, thank Ted Parsons and Michael Mess for that. But we second never issued the newsletter.

I bought recommended gold. Silver. The miners. Gold was like 350. Silver was $5 an ounce. The miners, we didn’t have GDX in, so I used Newmont Mining. And again, we just absolutely crushed it. We absolutely crushed it.

[00:33:06]:
It was an amazing run. It’s still, still an amazing run. What gold’s done. But as wrote this morning, it is remarkable. Is stunning. I use that word again. What has happened with GDX? The all time high in GDX was in late 2011 and we still haven’t gotten there yet. Even this gold has gone from a thousand to $3,400 an ounce.

The miners are still below their 2011 highs. Here’s a little more data that helps, helps us look. The miners have been doing fantastically well. All right, the miners are up. And I just did the math on this. I. It’s in the, it’s in the piece wrote this morning. One second.

Well, GDX is up like 366% over the last several years. Okay. At the same time, gold has gone from a thousand to 3,400. GDX has been up 300. It’s had a good run. But to still be below the 2011 highs and the volume. You know, this is one of my favorite topics frankly because I think I understand what’s going to happen here. And if you’re listening right now, pay attention to this one.

[00:34:36]:
I think this one’s going to. This could make you a lot of money. Okay, I really believe this next part can make you a lot of money because this is how I feel to my DNA today. Okay, GDX has been hot, okay, it’s been hot. Over, it’s up over the last 10 days. Excuse me, four days. It’s up 10%. Seasonality is fantastic.

Both for, for, you know, gold, silver and the miners, really for gold and the miners. Very good seasonality here into year end and again it’s beautiful technical formation, all that, but the volume is non existent. After yesterday’s 5% move higher in GDX on tiny volume, 21 million. I thought today’s gonna be big follow through day, 5% a day. And for one sector that gets people’s attention, here comes the big money. They see what goal’s done. They see the monitors are cheap. They’re, they’re about to start piling in.

Listen to what it did today. It was up another 1 1/2% today. And the volume for GDX was 16.6 million. Put that perspective. During the big bull market I talked about earlier, our average volume days were 100 million average. And now this thing over the last 10 days, its average volume is 21.5 million. Again 16.6 today. So here’s my point.

[00:36:01]:
I think this may help you. When the volume in GDX starts and I’ve been saying when we get to 60, not even 100 million, when we get to 60 to 80 million shares a day of GDX, it is going to be, it’s going to be, it’s going to be parabolic time. That’ll tell us the big money is finally showing up. These beautiful long term chart stock pattern stock patterns. The, the fact that the miners are so cheap compared to gold that when this move starts it’s going to be, it’ll, it will be parabolic. I, I’ve, I, I’ve seen this happen too many times. But the volume thing is different. That’s the most frustrating part.

Where is everybody? They all buy bitcoin and it’s just buying gold. And what are they doing? Are they buying all these other shit coins too? Right. I think a lot of people just have lost interest because we lost so much money in that 40 year market for the miners after the bull market in 2011, it was brutal. I think a lot of people remember that. But, you know, we need, we need. I mean, we need to see an extended run, right? Even though it’s had a great run, it’s, it’s up now 70% for the year. Number one sector of the year. We need that to continue because it’s just, I think there are more people think they’re more exciting places to put your money.

There’s not. Okay? There’s not. This is, this is the one. And when the volume starts to come in, let me just say this for everybody listening to me today, when this happens, not when this happens. Do me a favor. Next time you see me, buy me a drink, because this is going to pay for a lot of them. This is, this is Bible, okay? And now we just need the volume to show up. If it never does, I’m like a complete horse’s ass.

[00:37:43]:
But I think it’s going to, and I think it’s going to happen this year. I think we’re going to see a big move higher in the miners in the year. And that’s, that’s our call. It was our number one sector for the year. So we’ve been riding this so far. Beginning of the year, GDX was the number one sector. I said it’d be up over 100%. We’re up, I gotta say 70, 69, 70% now.

So we’re getting very close. Probably 150 for the year is my guess. Now when it gets going, it’s red hot. All right, let’s move on to the market today again, they just can’t hit this, can they? Nasdaq finishing up 1.2%. That’s up 250, 252 points. That was our winner on the day. Let me check. Semisimizer down today.

You saw the news probably this morning on amd. Advanced Micro, now they’re up after hours. So I’m not sure what happened here, but before I started getting ready to record this, semis were down 8, 10 of a percent. Now they’re up 4, 10 after hours. So something’s going on here. But that was on the heels of Advanced Micro. Look at Nvidia. What a champ.

[00:38:49]:
Open down a couple percent on, on the AMD news. And then boom, closed up on the day, up a 7, 10 of a percent. This, this stock’s going. Rich Ross, you may have seen this this morning. Again, if you’re with us, Rich Ross is a really, a phenomenal quant or, you know, a technical analyst. He’s a cfa. He’s phenomenal. I’m sorry cta, my bad.

He’s got, he does very good work and he’s speaking with a lot of conviction. He’s been very bullish on this bull market. He’s called, he said we’re going to keep going. He says we rally into Nvidia earnings which are on the 27th or 29th this month, one or two. And he says Nvidia is going to 200. He has been saying 200 to 250. I saw, I think I saw 200 today. But anyway that’s his range has been 200 to 250.

Right now is Nvidia’s 179. So but he was saying this when Nvidia was like 140. So he’s been on this train like we have. Well we bought it at 106 and you know, so we think this is going to be a 10 bagger. This company is, they really have no competition and I don’t think that just goes away. I don’t, I don’t, I don’t think that just goes away. Good stock to own long Tesla kind of quite elsewhere. SBF 100 was up 7 10%.

[00:40:07]:
Rust out Rust,000 down 2 10. Dow Jones down up 2/10 1%. It really was quiet all around though. The internals again yesterday’s were better. The market was slightly lower. Yesterday’s were better. You just refresh the screen just I’ll kind of average out for you. Advanced decline NYC and NASDAQ flat up down volume.

NASDAQ NYC flat slightly negative but just slightly so we did have more stocks hit 52 Kai 50 week low but only been by about 13. It’s just like a right down the middle kind of day here. Even though the market you know did well today again there’s just so much money, so much money coming into America. It is supply and demand folks. It is supply and demand in our sector. Watch again. No surprise. Quiet.

We had. What is this? Six sectors finish higher. No 5. Six finish higher. Five finish lower. A big move today. Consumer discretionary. And there you have it.

[00:41:12]:
People are buying things that cost a lot of money that they don’t need and that’s that. That’s animal spirits baby. That is melt up time. We’re still in it. That’s why NASDAQ led again today and semis rallied back. I mean they, these, these strong relative strength stocks and sectors when they stay strong for an extended period there is no more bullish sign than that. There, there Is no more bullish sign than that. And that’s what’s happening right now.

We had again 6 finish higher. Only the downside, healthcare, which, you know, you talk about karma down one and a half percent today. Boy, if there’s really karma, the carnage here for this group should only just be getting started. Not a day goes by that I don’t have really difficult conversations with people about how doctors have screwed them over in one way or another or the system has. You know, our policy is don’t go. We don’t, we don’t. We only go to doctors if, if it’s required. And you know, it’s not that I haven’t gone to doctor.

I have. It’s not that I haven’t been in the hospital. I have. But we want to stay out of that environment, you know, and we don’t want to take any shots or anything like that whatsoever. Completely naturopathic. Cindy’s really on this now. She’s had rheumatoid arthritis now for 32 years. And it takes a toll.

[00:42:33]:
And we didn’t know everything we know now. So for years she was taking prednisone and other things. And you know, that, that, that takes a serious toll. I know a lot of you know what I’m talking about. Very, very widespread. But now she eats fantastic. She watches what she puts in her body all the time and just is a very, very healthy looking person. It’s doing so much better.

But these conversations are painful to have. Everybody knows somebody in their family that’s not doing well and they’re struggling with doctors and with hospitals. Everybody knows that person. And it’s a shame that, you know, but there for the grace of God, you know, there go I, there go you, right? And those that are on this call today that are having health problems, you know what, we might have some solutions for you. We’re common sense people. We’ve done our homework over the years in wealth masters. We call it best of the best of wealth, health and wisdom. And at every event we’d have our favorite healthcare speakers there.

True healthcare, naturopathic, et cetera. Very cool people to be around. Positive great ideas and solutions. The presentation, you’re like, what, are you kidding me? Coca Cola could take is used to take rust off batteries. No way. I love Coke. Oh, well. But you know, I’m glad I learned those things and glad it stopped those bad habits.

[00:43:55]:
All right. In our commodity watch today, surprise, surprise. Guess what? Quiet. Same thing again. Very quiet day today. Gold today. Up two bucks at 34.3. 3.

That is now, what is it? $72 below all time high. It’s getting there. And then quite a bit more. Silver today looks so ready to break out. I see a lot of people I respect true technical analyst. I use it as a tool. But these people are like professional technical analysts and they say this is the chart that silver is ready to go and that means 50. Okay.

Essentially from 38 right now. And I respect their work and I think they’re right. We’re looking at ways to play that now we just need a breakout and then we’ll be involved. I want to, I want to cheat, though. I want, I want to buy some things now. I don’t know a lot of great silver companies. If you do, let us know. I’m gonna play it through options, right? But you know, we’re always looking for really good ideas for silver.

[00:44:50]:
If you have it, let us know. Copper today also. Imagine that flat 441A pound. Crude oil today. Flat. Imagine that. 64, 35. Actually, you know what, that’s not right.

I saw this earlier. This is a late print. Oil was down today. I think it was like one and a half percent. Anyway, last trade here for West Texas Intermediate, $64.35. Finally today, Bitcoin. You know, Tyler went to a meeting this morning and he called me, he’s like, what just happened? What just happened to bitcoin? You know, it was fine and it dropped, I think intraday, like 112 or something. It’s right back to 115.

115,000 now 1%. Last 24 hours. You know, I think, I think, I think most of us feel the same way about bitcoin. It’s going higher and it’s going to happen soon. Maybe, maybe, maybe we’re part of a dangerous majority that, that is kind of the definition if we be a contrarian, right? Boy, now I’m talking myself into it. Maybe I need to take another look at this because everybody that I know, everybody, you know, Peter Shifts of the world, there’s still a lot of doubters in bitcoin. So it is not everybody. A lot of people that haven’t gotten on board the train yet.

[00:46:02]:
But among bitcoin people, yeah, most everybody’s bullish. I’ve seen some that aren’t, you know, trying to make a bold call here and there if the tops in, etc. But I think they’re very wrong. So Anyway, last trade, 115,118. All right, folks. Hey, I hope you had a great day. Maybe better. And I appreciate you.

Listen, we’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.