Podcast

VRA Investing Podcast: Why America’s Golden Age is Just Beginning – Kip Herriage – February 14, 2025

In today's episode, Kip discusses the remarkable resilience of the markets as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 close at weekly all-time highs. Despite these all-time highs, Kip highlights the fear that continues to show up in sentiment ...

Posted On February 14, 20251551
Share:

Listen On

About This Episode

In today's episode, Kip discusses the remarkable resilience of the markets as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 close at weekly all-time highs. Despite these all-time highs, Kip highlights the fear that continues to show up in sentiment surveys. Additionally, we explore the implications of recent political and economic developments, including the role of the new administration in unleashing "animal spirits" that fuel market growth. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Transcript

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Friday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Another record week this week. S&P 500 closed at an all-time weekly high, all-time highs a half a point away from an all-time high on a weekly basis. Also NASDAQ 100 closing at a weekly all time high, folks. Get used to this.

This is gonna keep happening and it’s crazy. If you’ve been joining us podcast for the last couple weeks, Tyler and I pretty much every day have been harping on this because it’s one of these anomalies. You don’t see these very often and when you do it just, it’s. If you’re a contrarian, you’re salivating. You’re absolutely salivating. There’s no other way to put it. You want to buy as much as you can because what’s happening makes no sense. The fear out there is rampant.

Fear and Greed Index, as Tyler just told me, is now back into a 44.44 fear. With the markets at an all time high. We’re, we’re right there on everything pretty much right? And we’re all time highs and fear is everywhere. As we told you yesterday, the AI investor sentiment survey came out with almost 50% of respondents bearish. It’s not just so, it’s not just the Fear and Greed index. We’re seeing this everywhere. There’s $7 trillion in, in money market accounts because people are scared to death. Now why might that be? For the same reasons we’ve been talking about here for a couple of years.

[00:01:31]:
Right? This fear is deeply ingrained. We get it. Two straight decades. Two decades of just horrible developments, right? The worst two decades in American history. That’s the case we’ve made for some time. There’s not a close second. It’s the worst two decades in American history. This fear, this angst, this anxiety is deeply ingrained.

It’s going to take, it’s going to take time for that to change. We can’t control that. What we can’t control is how we invest with this knowledge. Because I can tell you this, this is not just from Fear and Greed Index. It’s not just from sentiment surveys, okay? This is pretty much everybody we talk to. And these are our own clients and subscribers. Probably a lot of you listening are scared of this market. You’re scared of what’s going to happen.

And it’s not, again, it’s not that we don’t get it. It’s Deeply ingrained. But I’m telling you, as the contrarian, they can look at the facts. This makes no sense. This market is going to go up for this exact reason. For this is the reason you buy now. It’s not the only reason, is it? Here’s some new, new data for you. Just got this today, with 75% of the SP 500 reporting earnings right for the, for the fourth quarter, earnings are up a stunning 15.3%.50.

[00:02:57]:
Where were we? At the end of the year, the estimates were 9.2%. That’s how off these analysts have been. They’re fearful as well. Again, 15.3% so far with 75% reporting above estimates 9.2%. 75% of companies reporting are beating estimates. That’s above the long term average of 67%. Companies are also beating by a wide margin of 6.3%. That’s well above the long term average of 4.2%.

So this is happening up and down the line. It’s happening in industry after industry. This is not just tech. Matter of fact, tech has not even been leading this rotational theme that we talked about with you for some time. Matter of fact, the rotational theme is taking place in the market is textbook bull market action. One group gets weak, another group picks up the slack and goes to new highs and they rotate. This is I, this is. You couldn’t draw, you could not draw this bull market up any better if you tried.

Okay? So you know our views. We believe that this is just the beginning. Ernie, Trump’s only been in office now. Again, a lot of this is happening because Trump did win in November. Okay. A lot of that is, is why these, this four quarter earnings, even though he just got inaugurated, it’s three weeks. Can you believe it? A lot of this is happening because animal spirit started coming back right away, frankly, in advance of, because I think the public knew he was going to win. Right.

[00:04:13]:
Too big to rig. We all, we all thought they’re going to rig it, but we felt there’s just no way because. Are you kidding? Kamala Harris, are you kidding? Even, even the deep state can’t rig this for her. She’s that horrible. All right. But anyway, yeah, this is going to continue. We’re only in the first three weeks of Trump’s first year. Animal spirits have already come roaring back.

And this is what you heard me talk about this week. Tyler talks about it. This is a topic of ours pretty much all the time. Here’s why that is, because almost nobody else is talking about it and it’s that important? Do I need to pound the table to make the point any more clear? So we look, this is just beginning. Earnings growth is going to not slow. It’s going to accelerate from here. This is the power of true animal spirits, which you’ve not seen in this country outside of maybe Trump’s first. I say Trump’s first year, year and a half.

And then Jay Powell started hiking rates and then the market started tumbling. Then we had of course the pandemic. Right. So Trump never really got a fair shot. The markets, remember, the markets did very well when Trump won, right? So we did see. But, but the hatred of Trump, right? The medias, it was always 247 get Trump. So, you know, even though his economy was doing well, markets are doing great. People are like, it’s not going to last.

[00:05:37]:
Look at this guy, he’s a Nazi. Well, have you noticed what’s changed? And folks, this is not a minor point. This is a big point here. I don’t watch CNBC and have it for over four years now. I stopped watching with their pandemic coverage, complete propaganda. And I said I’m done with it. So I haven’t had, not watched it once. Kind of proud of that Taylor Truth.

I used to watch CNBC all the time. So I watched Bloomberg in the morning and I’ve got it in the background, like if there’s news breaking, there’s a Fed, you know, presser or you know, Fed, whatever, right? Something important. I have Bloomberg in the background. But here’s what I’ve noticed about Bloomberg. And again, in Trump’s first term, it was all hatred of Trump. Every person on was talking shit about Trump. But I still, I have to know what’s happening, right? We still have to be clued into. Okay, what’s, what’s the media saying? It’s important, especially if you’re a contrarian.

You know, we always want to go against what their dominant theme is because that’s just a great way to make money. It’s like, Betty, like Tyler talked about yesterday, all these economists, we shared this in our letter yesterday and Tyler covered it yesterday as well. Over 90% of economists are saying that Trump’s tariffs are going to be inflationary. Now, you know, you know where I’m going with this, right? Anytime. It doesn’t matter what the issue does not. I’ll play this, I’ll play this hand blind, okay? You’re a poker player. I do not even need to look at my cards. Whenever 90% of mainstream economists are saying something.

[00:07:12]:
I am Going to bet on the other end of it, and I’m going to be right all the time. That’s just the way this works. I, Ted Parsons, my first mentor, something he taught me, I was like, what are you? This makes no sense. These are economists. These are professionals. This is what they do for a living. If they’re all saying we’re gonna have a recession, I would think we’re gonna have a recession. Ted.

Ted was just laughing at me. No, you’ll learn, kid. Give it time. You’ll learn. But listen to me. Here’s how I do it. And so he would, anytime he could find mainstream economists all agreeing on something, you know, something like, again, like, like this or like the recessionary call. When 100 of economists said we’re gonna have a recession in 2021 never came close, right? Market, you know, skyrocketed.

So again, same thing with inflation. If you think that the smartest financial guys in the world who work for Trump now, Trump administration, also the most pro business administration in American global history. This is it, folks. This is it. We have everything we’ve been wishing for. It’s in place now as it applies to the economy and stock market. We got the A team. We got the a, A plus plus plus team.

[00:08:24]:
If you think for a second that they’re not gonna be able to solve Joe Biden’s and this in the Fed’s inflation problem, I think we need to have a talk. I think. I think, I think we need to have a conversation. Okay? Because this bull market is just beginning. They’re going to solve these problems. And this is. This is it, folks. This.

I wrote it up this morning. Let me just say this before I forget. Well, I’ll come back to. I want to talk bitcoin. Big developments in bitcoin today. I’ll cover that in just a moment. But again, SPF earnings skyrocketing, markets at all time highs. What a time to be alive.

What a time to be in America. By the way, markets are closed on Monday for President’s Day. No viewer letter, no podcast. We’ll see you on Tuesday. But again, Tyler covered this yesterday. It is this. This administration is moving so fast it’s impossible to keep up. This is three weeks, folks.

[00:09:13]:
When Trump said, we’ve entered a golden age for America, we took him at his word. We said, then we’re taking it verbatim. We’re taking it literally. And look what’s happening in the first three weeks. This is the Trump we voted for in 2016, but really didn’t get we know the reasons he was a political newbie. He put the wrong people in positions. He was fighting them every day. He didn’t have a chance to be focused.

Not now. He’s got his people up and down the line. And now as yesterday, RFK Jr has been confirmed. Make America healthy again. Thank God. Here we go. Get these jabs off the market. I did see today bravo to Trump for telling universities that if they mandate the jab the federal funding will be ripped from them.

Now you just got to take them off the market. They have to be off the market. These poisonous pill, poisonous jabs. Okay. These death jabs are still on the children’s immunization schedule. It’s recommended that babies get three in their first year. Why God’s covet. It was a scam.

[00:10:24]:
We all know this now. Don’t wait. You know Tyler and I have been pat on the table on this from, from, from, from jump street, right. We started saying and this is God’s honest truth. The, the entire time of the plan did it never made sense to us. We started talking about the, all the, the things we saw that just like these are clearly lies. They’re just making things up. This is a propaganda attempt.

And we started talking with the Rockefeller Foundation’s report lockstep. And in fact in 2010 that was written and it read like a playbook for what we were going through. So again this was a like with military style precision. Right. This pandemic was planned and said same thing for the jabs. Now we’ll say I’m not going to attack Trump on this. But again they wouldn’t exist if Trump didn’t force them on people. The operation warp speed.

These would never have happened. So he’s got to do the right thing and get these off the market. There’s how many millions of kids are taking till 18 years old because they’re on the schedule. Right? And you know we folks, we’ve had millions of deaths already from these. Right. I think the truth’s going to come out. We already know the truth but the public doesn’t. Okay.

[00:11:38]:
Because the media has covered this up. But thank God RFK Jr this truth is coming out. And we couldn’t be more excited. Tulsi Gabbard confirmed. Let’s tear down the deep state and intelligence agencies. Right. They gotta go look at the damage that’s done there. Again, worst two decades in American history.

CIA, NSA has a lot to do with that. And of course Elon Musk. I love what J.D. vance had to say today. J.D. vance was speaking today at a conference in Munich, Germany, a security conference. And he said, listen, if American Democracy can survive 10 years of Greta Thunberg, you can survive with a few months of Elon Musk. How good is that? Right? But now Musk is just driving the lift crazy because of course he’s exposing their criminality.

That’s what it is. It’s blatant criminality. Politicians getting wealth off of. It’s just a complete scam. We all know this and so that’s why they hate him. But these are all Democrats in the very recent past. These are all Democrats. So as I wrote this morning, and this is, I think this is, this is, I think this is a pretty fair statement.

[00:12:47]:
Political labels matter anymore. They don’t apply. They’re pass a. The only labels that matter now are common sense and what’s in the best interest of Americans. What a time to be an optimist. If you think I sound like a Pollyanna or you think I sound like I’m naive, remember folks, I’ve done this 40 years. 9, 11 changed me as a person. So I’m the last person that’s going to be over the top optimist when you shouldn’t be.

My God, all I’ve done is attack these people since 9 11. All of these frauds, scams that have happened to us. Okay? But look, it brought me to where I am now. Yes, I am an optimist, somehow survived, right? It wasn’t easy. But what a time to be alive. What a time to be an optimist. Now this is the worst time to be. If you’re a pessimist, if you, if you’re a glass is half full empty person, this is a horrible time for you.

[00:13:36]:
You know, if you’re expecting the worst. And again that’s what these sentiment surveys show, is it not? People are just hardwired now to expect the worst. But that’s what’s going to keep power. Hear me on this. That’s when it was going to keep powering this bull market. I think, I think we got it. We got a set up here that is just beautiful. It’s a remarkable setup for stocks.

This is the exact environment when major moves higher take place. First year of a new presidency is not always easy. But folks with animal spirits back $7 trillion in money markets, money split in the people know. People know they’re getting more bullish. I think these dips are going to be short lived. I do not think we’re going to have a big drawdown this year, I really don’t. I just don’t. I think there, there’s too many people share buybacks, companies that are growing.

There’s just too much bullishness out there to have any kind of a big drawdown. Look what happened just again, Tyler, go to this. Yesterday, we’ve had, you know, supposedly bad news after bad news about tariffs and about inflation. CPI this week, and look at the market just slopping it off. Not the news that matters. It’s the market’s reaction to the news. That’s what matters. That’s the tell.

[00:14:50]:
That’s the tell. And also shared this this morning. I’ll just cover it briefly in our book, the big bribe. In August 2022, I wrote the following. Look as much as you want, but the last 20 years have been our worst ever. Americans have been, in effect, broken, but it’s always darkest before the dawn. And I just happen to be the definition of the eternal optimist. Never sell short, America.

I believe America and the world can look forward to possibly two decades of prosperity and growth that will dispel the negativity and the loss of the last 20 years. I think we do, don’t you? And here we are. I know probably, I’d say a lot of you that are listening now have read the Big Bribe. If not, you know, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s in your back office. If you’re, if you’re a member here, it’s right there. There’s a digital form in your member site. If you like a physical copy of it, you know, shoot me an email. I’ll sign it, I’ll send it to you.

[00:15:46]:
All right? That’s for our members only. If not, you know, we’ll, we’ll charge you 10 bucks or something for just to get it to you. Okay? And if you’d like a signed copy, send it to me. I’ll sign it. Tyler will, too. Okay. But with humility. It’s holding up.

Okay. And again, I wrote this this morning. It’s beginning to look like we wrote this with the help of a time machine. It just is. All of our, our five mega trends that we, we outline this again, what is this? Almost two and a half years ago? They’re all playing out. For our new listeners. I’m going to cover it quickly. Our 5 megatrends again from August of 2022.

Financial engineering. It’s not just bitcoin. It’s happening all levels, and it’s only going to pick up speed. The blockchain and bitcoin in the blockchain, in cryptocurrency. But what’s happening to the blockchain and what’s going to happen with the digitalization of the world is going to transform all of our assets. All of our assets going to be on the blockchain. It’s going to the, the, the, the, the liquidity that’s going to free up is just, it’s, it is mind bending. It’s my baby.

[00:16:53]:
We’re working on this. There are companies doing this like for real estate, for housing that’s coming. Yes. Inside of three, four years your home will be in the blockchain if you choose for it to be. And that means liquidity if you choose for it to be without having to go get a home equity loan. And that can happen for all assets. This is happening. So financial engineering is just in its infancy, but it’s starting institutional level government, corporate and consumers corporate earnings expansion.

All right, what did we just cover? Right. The corporate earnings are really growing rapidly here. Again, this is driven by the, a lot of this now by the innovation revolution. That’s our name, what we’ve named it. Some people call the AI boom or AI revolution. It’s much broader than AI. Its innovation is happening in pretty much every industry. And this will surpass the euphoria of the dot com tech boom cycle 1995-2000.

Again, I remember it well. This is going to make that look like chump change. This is a meltable market folks. Number three, long term housing boom. Because housing drives everything. It’s the most important asset by far. Not a close second. It’s also the most important leading economic indicator and there’s not a close second.

[00:18:04]:
Some people think transportation is birth. We disagree. It is. Housing drives everything. And again, 40% of homeowners own their home without a mortgage. We have net equity in homes at all time highs. This, you can’t, it’s a physical impossibility to have a housing crash here. It just, it cannot, it literally cannot happen.

And so many fear mongers are out there still saying here comes the next, here comes this housing crash. They’re, I’m sorry, they’re idiots. They’re just idiots. Or they’re fear mongers and they’re just driving to. I don’t know, I don’t know what their intention is. Maybe they’re trying to add, you know, people to their list and then no fear sales. I can’t think of another reason. Right.

But fear does sell. So I get it if you’re just trying to build your list and do it for marketing purposes. We just don’t, we don’t play that game. That’s, that’s called a lie. But again, the long term housing boom. Again, just getting started, folks. Just getting started. One of the biggies, and this is the one we caught the most shit on when we talked, we wrote and put it as a, is a big, bright megatrend.

The millennial generation was going to power everything. We got so much crap for this. And I would go on TV and I would talk to Wayne about Wayne’s. The millennials. What are you talking about? They’re living in their parents basement. They’re 30 and they don’t have a job like man, you bought into the propaganda. That ain’t true. Millennials, 72 million strong.

[00:19:27]:
Largest segment of the population in the process now of inheriting. In the book we wrote 70 trillion. That’s what we had at the time. I read this week that it’s up to $90 trillion they’re inheriting because again, assets are growing, right? So they’re inheriting. We’ll call it, let’s put the video down the middle. $80 trillion. Largest segment of the population. And they love housing, they love stocks, they love cryptos.

They understand technology in their DNA. They’re born into technology, like being born in the Matrix. They just get it in a way that my generation doesn’t. And they’re also born entrepreneurs. Millennials are driving everything. They’re the new baby boomers. And they’ll be bigger than baby. This is, this is, this is.

I, I am, I am salivating. I, I, I’m, I’m as aggressively long as I’ve ever been. You heard me say it before, I’ll say it again. I’ve never been this bullish in my career. If I’m wrong, hey, if things change, we’ll tell you. I’m not. We’re not, we’re not, you know, we’re not, we’re not attached to this. We, if we’re wrong, you know, we, we don’t change.

[00:20:30]:
We don’t stay wrong. That’s the great thing about being a trend follower, right? You know, if you’re a trend follower and the markets change or a stock changes a trend, you did. You’re out. You know, that’s it. You know, I can’t take any more pain, right? Got my stop in. I’m gone. Well, this trend has not changed. And the final big broad mega trend was red.

This is, this is probably the one I’m most proud of because we were writing the book and it was like, you know what? This just feels to me like this country’s changing. People are sick and tired, we’re headed towards communism. The country’s waking up. The red pilling of America is happening. I felt this over the last two, three years. We put it in the book. Almost no one was talking about it at the time. And the red pilling of America and return of animal spirits, again, this is from almost two and a half years ago.

Americans decided that we didn’t like the direction we’re headed in and we wanted to change, and it was too big to rig. So this is hugely bullish. And now we’re seeing the end result of that. Okay, J.D. vance, thank you. What an amazing choice that Trump made for vp. At the time he made it, I was like, well, I really kind of want it to be Ron DeSantis. Ron Paul, Ron DeSantis.

[00:21:45]:
You know, I was big, big stance guy, still am. I thought that team would be pretty formidable. But then as I started looking into J.D. vance more, because, remember, one time he was a never Trumper. Right. I didn’t like that very much. But, you know, once you find out his story and he answers the questions why he changed, changed course, it just made perfect sense. But, you know, he’s again at the Munich Security conference talking about directly to leaders of the EU right in their face, telling them that they’re destroying, they’re destroying their continent without free speech.

You really, you really don’t, you don’t, you don’t have anything. It’s. It all goes downhill. And he attacked him for that example after example after example right to their face. So, you know, again, this could be up to the people of Europe, you know, to, to do whatever it takes to take their country. It may be too late. It may be too late, but we’ll see. We’ll see.

It’s up to them. Do they, do they want. How bad do they want it? Right? How bad do they want it? Because this, the immigration is just destroyed their culture and their ability to control their future. And now you see it with censorship. That is just insane, you know, insane. JV Vance talked about. I think it’s in Scotland where they have it in a, in a law. It may be illegal to pray in your own home and that you can be turned in by neighbors that happen to catch you doing it.

[00:23:18]:
Can you believe this? Again, so many examples of censorship, completely destroying free speech. And again, that’s the design, right? That’s the design. So those are, those are our Big, bright megatrends. They are playing out. No, we did not. We don’t have a time machine, but it is playing out. And no one’s happier than us because we’re all making money from this. And it’s just getting started.

So again, our long term target for our new folks, we think Dow Jones is 100,000 by 2030. Maybe center is at 44,500. Now when we wrote it, the book is Dow Jones is 28,000. By the way, NASDAQ, our target’s 40,000. We’re 20 over 20,000 now. I think these targets could be low. These targets could be really low by 2030, folks. Right.

And that means economic strength is just, you know, again, Cathie Wood’s team, they’re saying 10% GDP growth by 2030, maybe before that. Our estimate is that GDP growth will hit 5% in 18 months. And folks, I think it’s this year. We’re on that way, we’re on that path. And I’m telling you, the public has no clue or feel for this. And that’s what, that’s what I, I get it. I’ve done this a long time. Maybe that’s why it seems bizarre to me that more people don’t see this.

[00:24:41]:
But again, the, the propaganda and the psyop of negativity is certainly very powerful. And again, two, two worst decades in American history. So it’s deeply ingrained. That’s all the only thing to me that makes sense. All right, let’s go over the internals first of all the markets and then I want to talk a little bit about bitcoin. There’s a lot of things happening there. What an investment. What, what a, what a move.

That’s directly in front of us, folks. Directly in front of us. Dow Jones today did finish lower by 165 points. That’s down 4/10 of 1%. That was our loser on the day. S500 was flat on the day after hitting an all time high, all time weekly high. Half point away from an all time high. Russ 2000 down 1/10 of 1%.

Nasdaq was our winner only, only index up today a 4/10 1%. A solid 81 points. Semis finished. Our semis were up a quarter of a percent. But again, we think the semis lead from here. Semis lead higher from here. They’ve been consolidating. I was on Charles Payne show this week, talked about this.

[00:25:43]:
Semis have been consolidating now for four or five months after bottoming in August that low has held. We’ve had a series of higher lows. The semis are ready to go. We can’t have an AI boom without the semis leading. That’s just the way it is. So the risk was they break down, you know, because they tagged the 200 day five times since August. Five times. The risk is they broke down, but we just didn’t see it because why would they? Economy’s too strong.

The innovation revolution just getting started. GDP again, GDP growth, earnings soaring. That ain’t going to happen. Semis are going to lead from here. We’re going to make a ton of money in the semis here. And if you know we’re aggressively long this group and we’ve done quite well in this group from the bottom. But the last four or five months have been kind of brutal, been very, very trying. But it’s forced us to have some patience that’ll be rewarded.

And those that have been adding to positions I think are going to really Crush this next 1, 2, 3, 4. It’s going to be dot com again. It’s gonna make it look like chump change. Right in our internals today. Pretty good internals, not great but pretty good. We had advanced decline today. NASDAQ positive by about 300 issues. NYSE positive also about 300 issues.

[00:26:54]:
Volume today solidly positive for NASDAQ by about $1.3 billion for the trading that puts it about a 58% upside volume day and advanced decline volume excuse me for NYC was flat 5050 both ways. We had about what is about 120530 more stocks hit a 52 week high than. No, it’s not right. We had more than 200 stocks hit a 52 week high, 50 week low. This market’s broadening. It will continue to. I just don’t see, I just do not see any big drawdowns here. This market’s not acting like it is it again it’s not the news that matters.

It’s the market’s reaction to that news in our sector watch today this is not as pretty a picture today we had only four sectors finished higher, seventh slower. No damage done anywhere. Consumer staples down 1%. Healthcare down 1% again with, with what RFK is doing, I’m surprised to not down more big pharma adios. Technology stocks led the way higher with gains of 6/10 of 1% in our commodity watch now again if you’re, if you’re a little member, you know we started talking about this week. Look, as much as we love gold okay. Gold. As much as we love gold, it’s an extreme.

[00:28:05]:
We’re bottom steroids. This is when bad things happen. And it’s not for us because we’re not day trading gold. Not day trading the miners. But we just thought. We just paused our buy. We certainly don’t buy more. Right.

That’s what we don’t do. And then we just wait. Right. And how long would this shake that White gold today down 50, 51 an ounce down 1.7% to 28.93. But again it’s just. What is this? 100 bucks away from all time high. Not even that. 70 bucks away from all time high.

I I don’t think long. This moving gold is. Is too powerful. Silver today finishing down 7 ounce at just a quarter percent at 3265. Copper today down 3%. A little bit of shakeout here at 463 a pound. Crude oil today down another 1%. Down 70 cents a barrel.

Drill, baby, drill. Doesn’t surprise us that the crude oil is going to fall down. But that means corporate earnings for energy stocks should do quite, quite well. They make a lot of money as long as oil’s above 60. Most companies that is. And the nat gas will continue to be very strong. Gas. Nat Gas up 2.7% today to 372.

[00:29:10]:
And MCF Crude Oil Study closing at $70.50 a barrel. Finally the day bitcoin And I want to talk for this about. About this a minute. I wrote this up this morning. Look, if you’re doing this, you know I. I love simple stories. I’m a simple Texas boy. One of my investing legends is Peter lynch who said if I don’t understand an investment, I don’t invest in it.

Invest in what you know and what you can make sense of. Pretty simple, right? Always worked for me. And bitcoin is not necessarily a simple investment under the financial engineering side of it, the blockchain. Who knows how that works. I’m not a coder, not a programmer. Don’t want to learn to code. So I don’t understand from that point of view. But it’s root.

You rarely will find a simpler story than this. It’s all about supply, demand. Again, digital gold, that’s the comp. They’re never going to have more than 21 million bitcoin mined. We’re just under 20 million now. I think when we get to 20 million it’s going to be kind of crazy because we only have 1 million left to mine now. It’s Going to take a long time to get there because the headings and the way, you know, it gets more and more difficult to mine, more expensive and difficult to mine and takes longer. We still got over 100 years to go before we’ll be at 21 million.

[00:30:23]:
But every year will be fewer and fewer. You know that, that came in mind on a daily, monthly, weekly and yearly basis. But the analogy that I like to give is that owning bitcoin is like owning prime real estate. Once you, you can afford to buy real estate in downtown Hong Kong, most expensive real estate on the planet, you would never sell it. Now you might use it for collateral, right? You might borrow against it, but you would never sell it because it’s just going to keep going up. They’re not making more of it, not in Hong Kong, not in most places. That’s bitcoin. And the big buyers that are coming in now, they ain’t gonna sell.

They’re just not gonna sell. They’re putting this away. And so this is just starting. So Bitcoin below 98, below 100,000 is just over 97,000 now. Is a, is a, is 97, 300 right now, up a 9, 10, 8, 10 1% on the day. It’s just, it’s gonna scream higher. Anything below a hundred thousand is a steel and it will be a steel. You’ll recognize that looking forward.

[00:31:26]:
Like in three years ago, my God, I could have bought a hundred thousand, is three hundred thousand or whatever, right? This is where it’s going. We’ll still be recommended. A million. It’s going to a million. It’s going to 2 million, going to 5. This Bitcoin is a screaming buy anywhere. You buy it as long as you’re not day trader, okay? And that’s our approach. It’s the best supply demand story of all time.

So today we learned. Chart looks great by the way as well. Today we learned this incredible news. Paul Tudor Jones first of all just is loading the boat. One of the real legend in the investing business. He announced today he’s bought a ton more today. The Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund. This is a fund that has $1.8 trillion in assets under management.

Okay? One of the largest on the planet. They just bought. We told you this was coming. It’s here now, folks. They just invested $437 million into BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF symbol iBit. Right? It’s the largest one Abu Dhabi sovereign Wealth Fund. This is what’s going to keep happening and it’s going to speed up. And I don’t know, I don’t know exactly when bitcoin is going to hit two.

[00:32:36]:
You know, our, our one year, our end of year target is 200,000. Our, our two to three year target, our cycle high is, is 350,000. But I don’t even know we’re going to have cycle highs. Honestly, I think this demand is going to be so insane that I think this is just going to be a one way ticket higher. I really do. There’ll be periods of consolidation like now, but there won’t be these big swings. We won’t see a, you know, once we get to 200,000 by year and our target, we’ll get there. I believe.

I’m pretty confident we will. We’re not going to fall back to 100,000. We’re not going to have a, you know, 50% loss again because that’s, that’s been the path, you know, past history of bitcoin, of volatility and people. It’s not a store, a store of value. Why did you just follow 20,000 then? You know, and so they had a pretty good point there because gold is a store of value. It does not have that kind of volatility. But I think that’s, that’s, that’s gone. Bye bye

I think those days are over. And I think you’ll have periods of consolidation like we’re having now, followed by major spikes. And look, everything’s got risk, okay? Everything’s got risk. That’s why you diversify. But you must own, you must own Bitcoin. You have to put a ton into it. But you must start and you must purchase Bitcoin or one of the ETFs. We recommend the Ark.

[00:33:57]:
We like the Ark ETF. You buy the Bitcoin, the BlackRock one, the largest one, if you’d like to. It doesn’t matter really. They’re all about the same. But you must start. It’s not optional. If you, if you really want to see your net worth grow and you want to, you know, you want, you really want to be a winner from an investment point of view, you must own bitcoin just like you must own gold. And you know, hopefully you own our recommendations that we have in the VRA letter.

All right folks, that’s it for today. Hey, I hope you had a great week. Always appreciate you listening here again, we’re closed on markets, closed on President’s Day. So we’ll see you back here Tuesday. Have a great weekend. Always appreciate you listening. We’ll see you back here again Tuesday after the close.

Podcast Newsletter

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Listen On

Time Stamps

00:00 Fear Surges Amid Market Highs
04:38 "Accelerating Earnings Growth"
06:29 Defying Economic Consensus for Profit
11:59 Musk, Vance, and U.S. Democracy
15:15 Optimistic Future and "The Big Bribe"
16:53 Blockchain-Based Asset Liquidity
21:45 J.D. Vance's Transformation Explained
22:46 "Cultural Erosion and Censorship"
27:30 Mixed Sector Performance Summary

More Episodes

1569 | March 14, 2025
VRA Investing Podcast: Stock Market Rally, Global Rotations, And Next Week’s FOMC – Tyler Herriage – March 14, 2025

In today's episode, Tyler discusses a strong close to another rough week for our markets. The S&P 500 has now declined for four consecutive weeks since its all-time high in February. We’ll explore the factors contributing to this dip and the potential scenarios we see playing out from here. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

1568 | March 13, 2025
VRA Investing Podcast: Market Woes, The Ripple Effect of Trump’s Tariff Tactics – Kip Herriage – March 13, 2025

In today's episode, Kip discusses the volatility affecting US markets and the impact of President Trump's latest tariff policies. We'll explore how these policies are impacting not just the markets, but also the very supporters who helped elect him. Plus, Kip covers the record highs in gold and the bullish outlook for gold miners and junior miners. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

1567 | March 12, 2025
VRA Investing Podcast: Disinflationary Data, Tech Leading, And Contrarian Perspectives – Tyler Herriage – March 12, 2025

In today's episode, Tyler breaks down this morning's latest look at inflation data with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). We also saw the tech sector bounce back big today, fueled by better-than-expected economic data and good news for the semiconductors. Additionally, he covers likely upcoming Federal Reserve Policy changes and the potential for a big move higher in stocks. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

1566 | March 11, 2025
VRA Investing Podcast: Navigating the Market Shakeout: Tesla, Trump, and the Path Forward – Kip Herriage – March 11, 2025

In today's episode, Kip covers a lot of ground on the current market dynamics, including Tesla's potential rebound and the shakeout we're seeing in tech stocks. Despite the turbulence, Kip's conviction is strong—this is an innovation revolution and Trump 2.0 is on the horizon. We're in the infant stages of a bull market, and he emphasizes the importance of staying in the game. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

1565 | March 10, 2025
VRA Investing Podcast: Political Strategies, Collateral Damage, And Market Volatility – Kip Herriage – March 10, 2025

In today's episode, Kip breaks down recent market turbulence, including today's rough start to the week. Despite these tough conditions, Kip highlights the potential for a bounce-back, given a few key market analytics and current extreme oversold levels. Additionally, Kip presents a contrarian perspective on recession fears, arguing that market decline is more of a short-term US-centric event amid strong global markets. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.