In today's episode, Kip dives into the latest market movements, which saw the Dow Jones and S&P 500 finish the day at all-time closing highs. Kip also covers market indicators, upcoming Q3 earnings reports, the outlook for semiconductors and gold, as well as the implications of recent CPI and PPI data. We continue to look for this bull market to climb a wall of worry. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back. The market is closed. Good Wednesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the Daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Another great day in the markets. You know what? What October surprise. I think the October surprises think it’s gonna melt up, right? All time highs today in the Dow Jones.

All time high today. And as we have hundreds, Tyler just told me, all time highs today in BKX, the bank index and the industrials. And isn’t this when these big moves tend to happen right when everyone’s waiting? We have a wall of worry. We have a wall of worry as we’ve been talking about with you over the last week or so. That’s what bull markets love to do. They love to climb a wall of worry. What October surprise? What geopolitical tension? What overbought markets again? What Hurricane Milton? What Hurricane Milton, by the way, and we’ve talked about this in the past, this may come across as, I don’t know how it came across, probably not positive for kiparis, but it’s the truth. Hurricanes are good news for an economy.

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They just are. This slides in the face of what people believe. But, man, when insurance, when communities get destroyed, the one thing you count on is that insurance proceeds are great for that area, great for that state. That’s going to be the case for both of these hurricanes, the rebuilding. And it’s a positive economically. It just is. And they always had been. Major events like this are a market positive.

But again, that flies in the face of what most people would think. So our view continues to be, you know, we’re working off overbought conditions, but this is the bull market of bull markets. And we’re going to have a lot of years to get to our $100,000 target, 100,000 target on the Dow Jones, where the market puts up 2025, 30% plus returns. This is going to be one of those years. This can be one of those years. So good day today. I’ll cover the details in just a moment. Importantly, I believe, is that we have ten out of twelve bureau investment system screens remaining.

Bullish. And we’re not overbought. This is, this is a no man’s land kind of market because we’re still not putting new money to work. You know, we paused our buying just over a week ago because the markets had hit extreme robot October seasonality. That’s the other negative. October seasonality is nothing in election years. Of course, the October surprise fears of are they going to try to assassinate Trump again? What else is going to happen. So we polished our buying over a week ago, just over a week ago, eight days ago, and we still have not lifted that because our markets never got oversold.

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Now semis kind of did. We love the semis here, by the way. This is something we’re going to be acting on again tomorrow. I believe in parabolic options. The semis now, or even though the Dow s 500 are at all time highs today, the semis SMH, the semi ETF, 11% away from all time high. Look at that chart. This is a good looking chart. And again, it’s not ideal from our point of view.

We like to buy when things are cheap. They’re not cheap, but they are. They’re also not as expensive as they were a week ago. And we like, we like the semi playing catch up into Q three earnings. And that’s the other thing is happening now. We’re getting front running Q three earnings because guess what, folks? They kick off on Friday. The banks began on Friday. Now, if you, if you’re a Vra letter member, then, you know, a couple days ago, I put out a piece Tyler references yesterday on his podcast about my latest conspiracy theory and the fact that, see the, that we see the markets going higher into the election.

Number one, because very few people believe that’s going to happen. That’s a contrarian call, number one. But number two, you got both sides, depending your trump or Harris person. Again, sometimes the markets want to go up on a candidate winning and sometimes they want to go down on another candidate winning. In this case, the markets want to go up for both. Number one, because the state is desperate for her to win. That means the economic data will continue to be good, aka rigged. We saw that in Friday’s employment report.

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Did we nothing as more than 700,000 government workers were hired. What a scam that is. Because that was meaningful. It resulted an unemployment rate of 4.1% instead of 4.5%. That’s a big difference. And it wouldn’t have been the case without that. The second highest total of government workers being employed in a single month, ever. The only time other than that was coming out of Rona and the pandemic.

The state is desperate for her to win. It is the economy, stupid. As James Carville said under Bill Clinton many years ago, the, oh, the, what is he, the pedophile in chief or the, he’s the sex pervert in chief, maybe model. We’ll have to check with Monica and see what she, so, see what she calls a slick willy. But Carville was right. It is the economy, stupid. So they got to melt this market up. They’ve got to have great economic looking data.

And if Trump wins, well, the market’s discounting. That’s what, that’s what we think is going on here. Trump is going to win in a legitimate world. It’s a landslide in the world that we live in today. How many votes will he have to get to win? How big is too big to rig? Will he have to get 85, 90 million votes to make it too big to rig? But the bottom line is, I think the markets are discounting a Trump victory. And then watch what happens on November 6, the day it should Trump win. I think this is what people are getting ready for because remember, so many investors remain scared shitless of this market because of who’s president, what’s happened in this country. And again, on the surface, I completely understand it, again.

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But this wall of worry that’s been built is frightening to a lot of people. But the markets, this is how the markets, this is when they love to rally. And again, we saw it again today, back to back, really good days here. So look for tomorrow because what’s tomorrow? We get the CPI data, right, and then Friday we’ll get the PPI data back to back. Inflationary gas. PPI is not as important. CPI Tomorrow, that’s pretty important data. And I can tell you by the way the markets traded today that tomorrow’s CPI data is going to be market friendly because this administration leaks like a sieve.

It’s the worst leaking administration that I’ve ever seen. And it happens time and time and time again. You can tell by the direction of the market the day before, the way the number is going to be reported. So I’m looking for a market friendly report tomorrow which should continue to show significant disinflation taking place. Continuing to take place. And I think it’s a great setup. By the way, we’re going to feature this in the morning. I think it’s a great setup tomorrow.

And going forward for both the gold and the miners, because, again, just like the broad markets a week ago, gold hit extreme, overbought steroids when we paused our buying. It has since fallen, I think pretty much every day since then. The miners are going to feature this chart in tomorrow’s burial letter. Take a look at that chart. This channel that’s been in place now for several, many months where GDX is traded down to the bottom of the channel, that up to the top, top of the top line is now hitting hit today by the way, hit the lower end of that channel today. So again, I think a great setup. If we get friendly CPI data tomorrow, you’re going to see bonds prices begin to, interest rates begin to fall, bond prices begin to rise again. Again, look at these charts.

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Look at this chart. Look at the chart of the ten year yield. It’s now hitting extreme oversold on steroids. In other words, yields have ratcheted up much too much. So this, tomorrow’s data should send bond yields lower, which will be a positive for the miners, for gold and for equities. So I think some really good trading opportunities setting up here again, the miners and in the semis. That’s what we’re looking at right now. Let’s talk about the markets and then we’ll come back to the internals and show you what’s happening here inside the market.

Get Dow Jones today. Actually, our leader today was a Dow Jones at all time high, just up over 101%, 431 points. Right behind that was the SPF 100, up 710% to 1%. Then the Nasdaq was up six 1% again yesterday. The Nasdaq and semis led not quite so much today. And the rest 2000 day was up at three tenths 1%. I think that group is going to rally as well. Significant broadening is taking place.

And also today the semi is also up again today, up nine tenths, 1% after having a good day yesterday. And also another important point we featured on this, focus on this a couple days ago. We’re still in the buyback blackout window where roughly, I think the number is 90. It is 96% of all companies have paused their share buybacks and they have to do that when in the quiet period heading into earnings. Well, again, that starts on Friday. So these buyback blackouts are going to start being lifted. The reason that’s so significant is because such a huge percentage of buying that takes place in our, you know, in our, in our, in our larger companies are coming from share buybacks. Why would companies want to buy back their stocks so aggressively? Let’s see, maybe because they know that stocks are cheap and there’s, there’s little, there’s little else they could do with their money to put it to work in something that’s this more beneficial than buying back their own stock.

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And again, that’s been a propellant of this bull market for a very long time. Ten year yield today 4.067%. I look for that to begin falling. And after the VIX jumped 18% a couple of days ago, it’s now back down. It fell just 3% today, but it fell to now 20.86 in our internals today. Quick refresh. As Tyler said yesterday, these are not great internals, but they also never got bad when the market was having a little bit of a hiccup. Right.

We did have positive returns across the board. Just nothing to really write hone about. An advanced decline was positive NYSE about 1.5 to one. Nasdaq only slightly positive, but it was positive by about 160 issues. Volume 63% positive NYSE 53.9% positive on Nasdaq. And we had 337 stocks in a new 52 week high to just 169. Hit a new 52 week low. That reading new 50 week highs to lows has not been negative since the August 5 lows.

That’s a long stretch of having every day be positive again. That is a pattern change from what we’ve seen in the past. That’s a big positive sector watch today. We had nine of eleven sector changed higher. Nothing great either way here, but we did have three indexes up 1%, three sectors of 1%, healthcare, technology, industrials, and to the downside, utilities down nine tenths 1%. And our commodity watch, again, gold continues to come off extreme overbought on steroids, but it is working off. That rating hanging in right now at 26 26. What? $90 away from an all time high.

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Again, 26 26 an ounce right now down $9 today for gold. Silver today was higher back to 30 27 again. It traded to the second highest price ever just last week. Over $32 an ounce right now, $30.72 an ounce. Also working off its overbought readings. Up four tenths 1% today. Copper down four cents a pound today at 441 a pound. Crude oil giving back some of those gains, down twenty cents a barrel today at 73.37 again.

Also going from extreme oversold to extreme overbought. And doing that on geopolitical fears and just short covering, frankly, that’s what’s happening here. And finally, the day bitcoin. Bitcoin. Last bitcoin. Not trading great here. I cannot tell you why. I can just tell you this.

We’re buyers here. It has reached oversold levels and we’re also coming up now. I think actually it started. I think it started yesterday. The seasonally bullish time frame following a having has now kicked in. Didn’t show it today though, did it? Down 2.7% at 60,686. All right, folks, that’s all the time we have today. Hope you had a great day and even better night.

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We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close. Bye.