Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Friday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the Daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Hope your week is also fantastic. Got a few things to talk about that matter today. Jobs data this morning. We’ll delve into that.
I was on Charles Payne’s show today, and I think, you know, brilliant minds think alike. We wrote this morning in our very letter that this feels like an easy call to make on this job stat because the state capital s has one person they want to win this election, and his name is not Trump. So the strong job status surprised everybody, but it was strong. We’ll cover that and whether or not we’re going to have a landing at all. People say we’re going to have a hard landing, a soft landing. Are we going to have a recession? There is no landing here, folks. This economy is strong. And again, this has been the week we’ve been warning about the October, everyone’s talking about an October surprise.
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We’re going to have a big October surprise that’s going to impact the markets. We thought for a bit there it might be Iran and Israel still may be. The other, of course, is they’ve already tried to assassinate Trump twice. Obviously, if something horrific happens there, all bets are off for both the market and for the country. That’s just the reality of it. That’s a big fear of a lot of people, and it’s a reasonable fear to have. And then again, this is October seasonality. This is a not a good month for, in an election year for the markets.
October is when crashes happen. Again, I don’t see anything that points to that happening, but that’s why they call them black swan. So there are reasons to be cautious here, which is what we’ve been as we paused our buying. But again, this is a wall of worry. Move higher, is it not? Bull markets love to climb them. That’s what we’re seeing. Saw a big move higher today. I was going to talk a little bit about what’s happening in the debt market because look over my career, the credit market, debt, the debt market.
Credit markets have been far more important than the equity markets. That’s when you find out if you got real trouble brewing. And we don’t have trouble brewing. But I think we’ve got what is happening here as bond yields have creeped higher, even as the Fed has been cutting, I think we get a very interesting setup. There may be a great trade here as well. We’ll be looking at that next week. Because bond yields started creeping up. What does that mean? It means, I think that that’s a, that’s a technical bounce, is what I mean.
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I think it’s a dead cat bounce. And I think there’s a good trade here for lower rates coming up as well. Start the markets first. Dow Jones again, very good day today. Following the jobs data. Dow Jones up 330, 41 points. That’s eight tenths of 1%. SB 500 did even better, up nine tenths of 1%, rose 2000 at 1.5% and Nasdaq up 1.2%.
The all important semis, let me get a fresh quote here. SMH, the semi ETF also up today, 1.3%. So it was a good day all around. And again, we got the job set this morning. What did that look like? Well, you’ve already seen the news. We’ll cover it quickly here. Estimates for only 150,000 jobs have been created. Instead, we got 254,000.
That’s a pretty solid beat. Caught everyone by surprise, frankly, the concern was this was going to be a weak report. What happened there? I think we know what happened there, don’t we? And the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. That was also a beat. And we had enough of revision from last month. The month of August was revised higher by 110,000 jobs. Remember, it was that week report in the month of August. It was that report that led to the Fed cutting by 50 basis points.
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And now it’s been revised higher by almost exactly the amount the estimates had it at. So it would have been, the jobs data would have been spot on last month had it not been for this revision, which means the Fed would have either, would likely have cut by 25 basis points instead of 50 basis points. How convenient is it that we had a weak jobs data allowing the Fed to, giving the Fed cover to go ahead and cut aggressively. Who does that help? It helps Harris. We know who it helps, folks. This is Charles said it on the show today. This is a manipulated system. Increasingly.
It’s what he said about the BLS. He’s a bureau of Labor Statistics. He’s exactly right about that. But these are the times we live in. These are the times we live in, especially when it involves the state. There is, and remember, there is no distinction whatsoever between the state and the Democrat party. It’s not democratic party. Every time I hear that, it’s a cringe moment for me, because words matter.
They are not Democratics. They are Democrats. Right. We have Republicans and we have Democrats. The republican party, the Democrat party, and then we have the democratic system in place, which is, of course, why they want to be called Democrats, because they want to make it sound like they’re the base of what America stands for. Words matter. It’s the Democrat party. But again, without the Democrat party having the state to back them, there would be no Democrat party.
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Let’s make this very clear. Without, because the state, of course, is also the media. Right? We learned from Operation Mockingbird, I believe it was, that the CIA has infiltrated every major news organization. So they’re going to get their message out. That always favors the Democrats. That’s the state. What better evidence do you need? Look at all of these rhino Republicans, these uniparty Republicans like Liz Cheney. Right? That’s now out on the campaign trail for a Kamala Harris.
What a scam. Again, it’s the state, folks. And I know a lot of people say, kip, what’s the difference? Aren’t all Republicans like that? Yeah, you know what? At the end of the day, they pretty much are. But at least there is a differentiating factor between them. Republicans are not in favor of open borders. Republicans are not in favor of massive censorship against us. Okay? So at least on the surface, they’re nothing. But again, this is a system we have to deal with.
We know what they’re trying to do, don’t we? They want to get us all. They want to get all of us very, very dependent on the government. They want to ultimately crash the system to bring in a communist chinafication of America. That’s what’s happening here. It’s happening throughout Europe as well. But that is a slow boil. That is a putting a frog in a hot kettle or a hot pot and letting it boil slowly so we just don’t notice it quite as much. And that’s why, by the way, I think we do have more time when we talk about us being on the path to the roman empire.
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It took 100 years to roman empire to collapse. Where are we? That I don’t think it’s going to happen. A lot of people believe as soon as Harris, if she wins, she’s going to go hardcore. I do not see that happening. I think that’s why the markets will continue to go higher. But again, I think it’s a slow process. They want to be able to control the system. And then from there, you know, we have to, we have to hope they lose.
Right? That’s why Trump has to win a month from now. But it was interesting hearing Charles today talk about the manipulation of the BLS, not trusting these jobs numbers. And we know why they want these numbers to look better than they are. Same reason. The port strike. Right. The port workers strike was just, the dockworker strike was just mediated and suspended until what, January 15? Who was that hurting? That was hurting the state. That was hurting democrats.
That’s why they got resolved in the way that it did. Put on the back burner until January 15. Again, there are no real surprises here. You don’t have to be a conspiracy theorist. You don’t have to be a conspiracy theorist to recognize the reality of what is going on here. We just have to find out how much are they going to rig the vote. Bye. Come November? That’s the fear that everyone that I know, that’s the ultimate fear.
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Can’t. Can republicans even win the presidency in a month from now? Will they even allow it to happen? It’s going to take all of us voting, folks. And again, this is the turn for me. I really did not. For the first time in my life, I voted in every presidential election. I voted every midterm election. For the first time in my life. I really did not think I was going to vote in this election after the last rig job, because what’s the point? And then I had my own issues with Trump and the pandemic and his handling of that.
And of course, these poison death jabs, but obviously, we’re past that now. Ron DeSantis dropped out. Now we have a very clear choice to make. Saving America or turning it over to, or electing Trump and getting this. And I think the markets are telling us. I really think the markets are telling us it’s going to be Trump. But we’ll see what happens there. If that’s the case, folks, get ready for this market to go.
Do you think market’s been good this year? It has been up 20%. This. We have 100 best midterm election year ever to start the year. You think this is impressive? Wait until after Trump wins. Wait until after. I mean, you better own stocks the night of the election because the open the next day, you can see gains of 5% or more in the broad markets. We’re talking about that kind of a relief rally and just massive fuel for the market if Trump should win. And the counterpoint is, Kip gets this question all day long, what happens if he doesn’t? Well, I think the markets will go down, but I don’t think it’ll be as bad as people think.
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Again, because this is a structural market of size and scope that’s going hard, regardless of who wins. And again, the key also is Will Harris. If she does win, would she also get the House and the Senate? Because if she doesn’t, if we have a divided DC with gridlock, the markets love gridlock more than anything else. History proves this. The very best setup you can have is where you have a DC that is gridlocked with a split in the House, Senate and presidency. And the markets love that because they can’t get broad, sweeping measures passed that can hurt us. And the markets realize that’s no longer a fear. That’s when the structural strength of this economy would take over.
And that’s exactly what’s been driving this market so far. Yeah, let’s see what else today. Again, look at all the things we have to be afraid of. Now. The dockworker strike is no longer one of them. But again, the October surprise, the election, mideast conflict. Trump almost assassinated not once, but twice. Yeah, this is a big wall of worry that’s being constructed here.
Docker construct’s over with. That is removed from it. Good job. Data today, of course, helps. Whether you hocus pocus or not, it’s still a net positive for the markets. And that’s exactly what we saw today in the markets. I wanted to make a comment also about what’s going on in the bond market. If you take a look at the charts.
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I’m going to feature this chart on Monday, the ten year bond. You know, just as the Fed was getting ready to cut, what happened? The ten year bond hit extreme overbought on, across the board, on all of our VRA momentum oscillators. So this is a technical move that’s key to remember. A lot of people are saying, wait, wait, wait, yields are going back up. That’s when it’s supposed to happen. Look, we do have a strong economy, but rates still need to be where they are. They are going lower again, they’re down from 5% to 3.98%. Still believe you’re going to get track quite lower because we just don’t have inflation.
Inflation without housing shelter and without insurance is below 2% and has been for about six months. So we’re already, based on those measures, already below the Fed’s mandate of about 2% inflation. And I think that’s going to become more and more clear, especially with the innovation revolution underway that’s going to continue to bring costs down, bring insurance, bring inflation down. And again, that’s more fuel for the fire, for the stock market. It is really. The stars are aligned, folks. The stars continue to be aligned for a generational bull market, which has been our call for two years, along with roaring 2020, it remains our call. All right, let’s take a look under the hood today.
Good internals today. The interesting thing about the internals, we’ve been talking about this, Tyler covered this again yesterday, even when the market was going through upheaval and we had the, again, the Iran tack of Israel, even when we’ve seen sharp moves lower, the one thing that’s remained constant is the internals have remained solid. Not that they’re always positive across the board, but guess what? Has been positive. We’ve not had a negative day in new 52 Kaiser lows since the August 5 lows. Think about that. That’s a long time of wins for a pretty important indicator. We saw that again today. But against decline today.
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For NYSE, positive about two to one, close to two to one. Nasdaq was positive by more than two to one today. Volume today, 73% of volume on NYSE, 71% of volume on Nasdaq. Again, very good ratings. And today, again, 316 stocks hitting a new 52 week high to just 109, hitting a new 52 week low. And our sector watch, good day here as well. Nine of eleven sectors finish higher, led to the upside by financials, up 1.6%. Consumer discretionary, 1.6%.
A lot of sectors up about 1%. To the downside, really not much to speak of. Real estate down six cents, one percent. Very, very quiet to the downside. Again, this is a good day today, commodities, when, again, a lot of people on the sidelines, a lot of people looking for an October surprise. What if we don’t get one? It has a melt up field, does it? Not? Especially if the state, if the state wants to get Harris elected, the market’s going higher. If the markets believe Trump’s going to get elected, the markets are going higher. There’s just not, unless we get that October surprise, folks, this market could really melt up into the election, which would be exactly the opposite of what almost everybody expects.
We’ve been writing this up as well. Literally everyone I talk with feels the same way, which makes me uncomfortable because I agree with it, which is the market’s coming off overbought. October is a bad month seasonally. We may have an October surprise. The less pause our buying. Guess what? Everyone’s saying that. Everyone’s saying that. So as a contrarian, it tells you that’s the one thing that’s not going to happen again.
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This feels like a market that wants to go a lot higher. Gold today on the strength on the strength of the jobs data was down today, down $8. Announcement. Check this, check the chart again. We started mentioning about six days ago that gold, and the miners, especially gold, first hit extreme overbought on steroids across the board. Extreme overbought. Right. That’s just a recipe for not disaster, but a recipe for a slowdown.
And we’ve had a bit of one so far. The miners never reached that level of robot, but they did reach heavily to extreme overbought on many of our minimum oscillators. So again, it’s just been. It’s a great channel there as well that’s been highly predictive of the direction of the miners talking about GDX and miner ETF. But again, I’ll tell you straight up, this pullback we think is going to be short lived. We’ll feature these charts again next week for another entry point to start buying gold again and really start piling into the miners again, because this is going to be a hot sector for, I think, for years to come. These prices are remarkably cheap. That’s what I believe that people should focus on.
Again, gold down $8 today at 26.71. Silver just barely down at all. Down one penny at 32.44. Again, silver over 32. It did not before. It just popped over 32 that it had only been higher than that once, and that’s when it went to 49 in the last big melt up move. Fire for silver. And that was a melt up move.
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Parabolic did not last very long. Copper today also up one penny a pound at 456 a pound. Crude oil continues to strong gains again. Concerns about Midi retaliation is how much is this going to escalate? Oil’s got a flow underneath it. There’s a lot of short covering, though, I must say. But oil today up 1.2%, barrel at 74.63. And finally, the day again going to feature this chart on Monday as well. Got a lot of chart work to do for you on Monday, but take a look at the chart of bitcoin.
It’s a bull flag formation here, folks. These are highly bullish formations. Assuming we get a breakout, the breakout is going to come at about 67,000. If bitcoin, again, a bull flag formation. If bitcoin tops about 67,000, then it’s all time highs, then it’s 80,000, then it’s 100,000. That’s what we’re looking at this year. That’s been our goal. Our target for the entirety of the year has been 100,000 this year.
I still think that’s going to happen today. Bitcoin up two and a half percent. 62,238. Just FYI, I bought more bitcoin today and I’m just going to pull up the chart real quick. Why I’ve got you on the line here. Yeah. As I suspected, bitcoin is now hitting extreme, excuse me, heavily oversold levels again. It also hit heavily overbought levels of a week or so ago.
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So we’re seeing now is technical action, backing and filling. But we think again, through 67,000, this bull flag formation will have a new buy recommendation. There are a lot of people following this. Should that happen, you’re going to see, I believe, a rocket ship for bitcoin higher. And that’s why we’re buying again here. Or if you don’t want to buy bitcoin, we recommend ArkBD, that is the Cathie Woods Ark fund and their bitcoin ETF. Hey, folks, always appreciate you listening. Hope you had a great day and even better weekend.
We’ll see you back here again Monday after the close.