In today's episode, Tyler breaks down another exciting day of all-time highs from our major indexes and US sectors. We're witnessing the early innings of a structural bull market, alongside our latest market theme, the coming Trump economic miracle, as markets begin to discount a second term for Donald Trump. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Dont look back because the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon, everyone. Tyler Herriage here with you for todays VRA investing podcast. Hope you all had a great day out there today. If you’re invested in this market or if you’re even just watching this market, you know, it was a very exciting session today for our markets, for our major sectors, and for many of our favorite names out there as well. We saw a number of all time highs, 52 week highs, and a continued broadening from this market, which is exactly what you want to see and confirms what we’ve been saying here for some time, that we are still in the early innings of this bull market. And we’ve entered another new market theme here for us when we’ve covered here a lot, but now we’re actually there, that we’ll cover more of this in the podcast today. But that is the front running of a Donald Trump win in November, a round two second presidency or second term, I should say, of Donald Trump and the coming Trump economic miracle.

Now that we are just a few months away from the November election, this is when the market begins front running. Some of that action here. And we pointed it out to our members this morning, the odds of a Trump election continued to creep higher. Well, after the weekend, they definitely didn’t creep higher. They shot up. This time last week, the betting market was at a roughly 60% chance of Trump winning. So a firm lead there now all the way up to 68% chance, I should say. You know, these are betting odds.

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So a little bit different there. But the odds for Joe and Kamala just continue to fall here. So, so many exciting themes, and, of course, one less than exciting theme is that there was an assassination attempt on President Donald J. Trump, which is still hard to wrap your mind around. So many questions going on with this here at the end of the day, thank God that he’s still here with us. We were millimeters away from a very different week this week and a very different country that we would be living in right now, just here a few days later. No matter your views on this issue, I think we can all be grateful that something like this didn’t just happen in our country. Kip covered this at length yesterday as well.

So I won’t dive too deep into it. We’ll focus on the markets here today and the incredible things we’re seeing. So after that, we’ll also cover the rally in gold, another all time high there today. Bitcoin rallying here once again as well. So many exciting topics here. But first, we’ll begin with earnings season. As we’re about to enter the heart of earnings season, this week really kind of kicks it off. We’ve got 11% of the s and P 500 reporting earnings this week.

And then next week we kick into high gear in the week after that as well. Next week we’ve got 31% of the S and P 500 reporting, and then another 31% in the following week as well. So in the next three weeks, 73% of the S and P 500 will have reported earnings. So buckle up. Stay tuned here. We’ve been saying for some time it was going to be a good earnings quarter here once again. So we’ll be reporting on it here. And already we’ve started it off in a big fashion.

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Kip covered this on Friday. We began with the big banks last week, which really is not uncommon for them to see pretty good earnings and then kind of do nothing and then kick it off into high gear. That’s a little bit of what we’ve seen so far. After the few earnings reports like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs that we got last week, the stocks didn’t do a whole lot, but there weren’t big sell offs either. Then today we had bank of America with a beat and then rallying to an all time high and seemed to take the rest of the financial sector with it. We saw all of the big banks, I won’t say all, but let me go back for a second. The financials have been hitting all time highs, but did so again today in a big way with these big banks finishing higher. And like I said, really across the board here.

Bank of America up five and a half percent, hitting an all time high. Wells Fargo, up 4.28%. Goldman Sachs, up two and a half percent. JP Morgan, up one and a half percent. These aren’t small companies. And while we have no love for the financials here, this is good to see as part of healthy action in a new bull market, we want to see the financials participating. Now, I jumped ahead of myself a little bit here, but while we’re on the topics of financials, I’ll go ahead and point out the most important part that we’re seeing here, really, from the financials, is not the big banks, but in the regional banks. Remember just a month ago we were talking about, you know, hey, regional banks are getting close to a support line here.

We don’t want to see it violate that level of support. There’s a lot of technicians who look at the regional bank sector as foreboding on the american economy. So if you look back to the 2008 financial crisis. One of the first sectors that we saw peaked during that time was the regional bank. So it can serve as a yellow flag for the rest of the market. Well, in just the last month, Kre has rallied over 20%. Now, I think that number, if I’m just eyeballing it here, at 23, over 23%, it is rallied from its lows just a month ago in June and now hitting a 52 week high here. So again, we don’t have positions here, but we want to see the regional banks, the big banks, all participating.

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And again, a sign of a very healthy bull market here. Now, with that said, let’s go ahead and jump into our market action on the day to day. I spent a little longer in the intro than I thought I would because this market action today was just that exciting. So we have to take a few minutes to cover it here. We were led by none other than the small caps today. That has been the case for the last few sessions. It has not been the case for the last couple of years as IWM just hit a multi year high today. That’s its highest level in two years.

Now, going back to pull up the chart, that is the highest level since November of 2021. And we still have some room to go before we get to an all time high. Just under right about 5% away from that level right now. So not too far away. But the key here is, is that all time highs and 52 week highs are not a bearish occurrence, as we say here. Often new highs beget new highs. And so getting the small caps to break out here again, healthy participation from all of our sectors, all of our markets, broadening action in this market, which is really good to see last. I’ll also point out something we wrote up to members as well, that last Thursday, the Russell 2000, which is the small caps.

Then you have the Russell 1000, which is made up of the large caps. And the Russell 2000 outperformed the Russell 1000 by more than 3%. The other times that this has happened was at market lows. We’re talking 1987 market low, October 2008 market low, October 2011 market low. And the list goes on and on. March of 2020, January of 2021, and now, most recently, November of 2023. Each time sparked a major buy signal, and surprisingly, a buy signal for the S and P, which was higher one year later, 100% of the time, with an average gain of 32%. And now we’ve also seen gains of over 1% in the Russell 2000 for its fifth day in a row.

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I’d love to see the updated numbers on this, but as of yesterday, when the Russell 2000 has completed up more than 1% for four days in a row, it’s happened 13 times. One year later, small caps are up eleven out of 13 times with massive gains once again of more, an average gain of more than 25%. So, yes, we continue to like small caps here a lot. But what’s most important about this theme, beyond these seasonality metrics analytics that I just alluded to? The most important theme here for the small caps, going back to one of my original points in the beginning of this podcast, is the market beginning to discount a Trump presidency. And that likely has a lot to do with the Russell 2000 massive move here. And we’d love to see it because the Russell 2000 is a great stock market representation of the health of the US economy. These are the smaller public companies here in the us. It means when you’re seeing small caps rallying, it’s the idea here is that there is a boom coming for domestic business, right? So it’s really good for the US economy to see small caps rallying.

And again with the expectation of Trump coming back into office and the way that these companies would benefit from a pro, a true pro business president, you think about deregulation, lower taxes overall, a more friendly regulatory environment towards small business. Get rid of this red tape, right? Let’s let Americans get to work. Don’t tie them up with all this bureaucracy. That’s what we can get back to. And we once again are looking here at the small caps and saying, yeah, we’re looking at another Trump economic miracle. So, folks, buckle up. Get ready for the Trump economic miracle. Round two.

We are so early in this process right now. Very exciting time overall. That said, let’s continue looking at our markets here. Like I said, Russ, 2000 up three and a half percent on the day to 22 63. After that, we had the Dow Jones up 1.85%, up 742 points with its best day so far in 2024, hitting an all time high here to 40,954. Let me just run a quick chart here. We did finish just about at the highs of the day. Another good smart money hour here for both the small caps and for the Dow Jones.

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The S and P 500 also finishing at its highs of the day today. Only the Nasdaq didn’t. We’ve been talking here for some time about this rotational theme to our markets. Well, the rotation has really started to come in spades here as now the Nasdaq was our most overbought major index that has switched here. It’s now the Dow in the Russell 2000. So that doesn’t mean that the Dow and Russell 2000 can’t continue higher from here. A market that gets overbought and stays overbought is very bullish. But if we were to see a rotation back into tech, we could use a little bit more of a cooling off there.

We’re not too far from extreme overbought levels in tech here as well. But again, this is the broadening. This is the rotation that we’ve talked about here for months now. And it’s all part of a healthy bull market action. Remember, we haven’t even wrapped up year two of this bull market yet. So yes, we see a lot of upside on the horizon here. But when you get to these levels of overbought readings, this is when we pause our monthly dollar cost averaging programs. It doesn’t mean that we’ve seen full on sell signals and that we’re ready to get out of this market.

Just that we’ll use some patience here at these overbought levels. Another bullish sign that we saw here today, transports. Also another one here that had been lagging for some time that we said we want to see improve. And we got a little bit of a short term double bottom here. I’m pulling back up the chart of a, we violated actually a little bit of a double bottom in June. That was a little bit of a yellow flag. Since then, transports have come back in a big way, actually leading the dow today. Just what you want to see.

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Just like you want to see semis leading tech, you love to see the transports leading the Dow up 3.28% today, hitting their highest level since August of last year. So really good day for the transports. Good to see today. Next up, the S and P 500. Also, another all time high here today, up 0.64% to 5667. And for anyone out there who’s still hanging on to yesteryear’s theme of it’s only seven stocks sending this market higher, you may want to start paying attention to what the other 493 stocks in the S and P 500 are doing right now because the equal weight s and P 500 also hit an all time high today as well. Again broadening action from our markets. Next up.

And finally for today, the Nasdaq are laggard on the day today up two tenths of 1% to 18,509, just shy of an all time high there. And I’ll point out that the semis did finish slightly lower on the day today still at somewhat overbought readings, nowhere near those extreme overbought on steroids readings, though, from not too long ago. You know, this is, we’re getting closer to a time here where we could look really to get aggressively long this group again. But for right now, the story continues to be small caps and the Dow, which we like here a lot as well. All right. So that really covers it for our major indexes here. Again, we’re out of overbought territory on the semis here, but hitting extreme overbought on steroids for the Dow in Russell 2000. Before I get to our internals, though, one other aspect today of note, ten year yield falling once again down nearly one and a half percent on the day, hitting its lowest level since March of this year at a 4.16.

Have said it here for some time. Yields are not going to go down in a straight line, but as we see it, the longer term trend will remain lower for yields. All right, now turning to more exciting action, the internals today, these were probably the best internals, possibly the best internals of 2024 so far. At midday today, the Nasdaq was lower, as I mentioned earlier, the semis finished lower on the day today. And the internals were so impressive, positive across the board for the Nasdaq. And they finished positive across the board for the Nasdaq in a big, big way here, too. It looks like we got some last minute adjustments coming in. So I’ll do my best to do this on the fly here.

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Advancing stocks beating out declining stocks again in a big way today. Coming in over four to one positive on the NYSE and over three to one positive on the Nasdaq here. Now let’s check 52 e kais to lows. This is where I thought we got the refresh, not quite a thousand, but we finished with 933 stocks combined. NYSE and Nasdaq hitting 52 week highs today. Now, that alum number in and of itself impressive. It’s even more impressive when you learn that only 38 stocks hit 52 week lows today. That’s 24 to one positive, over 24 to one positive on the day.

Again, stellar readings there. And in volume, the story continues, coming with a big 82% upside volume today on the NYSE and 78% upside volume on the Nasdaq today. Also, one, one more factor here. A little tougher to explain, but when we talk about, you know, 80% upside volume days, you’ve heard us mention a bullish breath thrust. And now that takes place when there’s back to back days of upside volume like this. But what we just saw in the Russ 2000 was what’s called a whaley breath thrust. These are very bullish going forward for the market. And I think only one time when it’s happened in its history has it not marked a short term low for the market.

Even when we’ve seen rallies like this today, hitting a welly breath thrust on a big update, should be support now for a big move higher from here. If I could explain that a little bit more, it would probably help. Walter Diemer is the technician, expert with these kinds of breath thrust analysis here. He’s a great technician, great follow for anybody who’s interested as well. All right, next up here, looking at our sectors on the day to day, we finished with nine out of our eleven sectors higher on the day to day. That in and of itself is press is impressive. Then you learn that five out of those eleven hit either all time highs or 52 week highs today. So let’s jump right in here.

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Industrials leading the way today, hitting an all time high here, followed there by materials, then consumer discretionary all time high. Healthcare all time high. Financials all time high. Again, no love for the big banks here, but new highs do beget new highs here after that. Real estate hit a 52 week high today. And I got to point out, we don’t, you know, and we don’t usually trade the real estate sector because it’s mostly made up of reits. That’s XLre is the s and p real estate sector, ETF. We like the home builders here.

The home builder ETF hit an all time high today as well. That is xhb. So really good to see our other leading sectors on the day included utilities and energy. Let’s see here. Okay. Okay. We got another two sectors though that are right on the door of all time highs as well. Our laggers on the day were communication services and tech.

Finally here for today, our VRA commodity watch. Again, a lot of exciting action here as we saw some more all time highs. Gold all time high today now up 1.84% to an ounce. And just what you want to see, the gold miners participating here, leading to the upside, up three and a half percent on the day, hitting their highest level in over two years. And it has been a phenomenal move here for GDX, the gold miner ETF, especially from its lows in March of this year. But it’s even more impressive of what could come next. When you zoom out, if you zoom out, you’ll see GDX’s all time high from 2011, and we’re still some 40%, over 40% from that level here. So there is a lot of value left in this group, especially when you think gold’s at an all time high right in the miners.

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These are companies that are now well financed, a great leverage scenario here. The ability to lever up for them is massive. We think it’s going to be a big run from this group and another one, another group that benefits from the Trump economic miracle. After that, silver up big on the day as well, 1.77% to $31.48 an ounce. Copper now lower on the day by one and a half percent to $4.45 a pound. And oil back below $80 a barrel here, down 1.34% to $79.76 a barrel. And finally for today, bitcoin, as I mentioned earlier, rallying today, got back above 65,000 earlier in the session off that number now, but still up 1.46% on the day at $64,706 a bitcoin. Folks, that is all that we have time for here today.

Please be sure to subscribe to receive our VRA podcasts every day at the market close. You can sign up@vraletter.com click the podcast link at the top and we’d love to have you with us. Thanks again for tuning in. Until next time, we’ll see you back here tomorrow for the close.