In today's episode, Kip dives into the exciting developments shaking up the market and investor landscape. Beginning with President Trump's headline-making move to allow 401(k) investments into private equity and Bitcoin, and what ...
Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good. Thursday after everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day. I want to start this podcast, let you know this one’s going to be a little shorter. The last couple of days have gone on, and when I start these, I never know how long they’re going to be.
Usually, I tell Tyler, I’m going to do a quick one today, and it winds up being 45 minutes like yesterday’s was. But I want to say thank you because I got several emails and texts after yesterday’s podcast. Two different people reminded me that was Bally Health and Fitness, the company that went. The gym that went under that my, that my, my bank, my mortgage company made me clean that up before I could get the mortgage. It was Bally. So thank you. I, I’m always blown away, but you guys remember and what I’ve forgotten. But again, thank you for your feedback.
That means more than you know. We just, we, we’re very honored that you would spend your time with us and let us kind of tell you the way we see markets because, you know, it’s humbling. I mean, I’m just telling you it’s humbling. So thank you, thank you very much for that also this morning. And there’s a lot of. I’m going to go fast today, but there’s some really cool stuff happening right now. There’s so much money in this market, so much money in the economy. You may have seen today.
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Trump just signed the bill that is going to allow 401ks can now be invested in whatever you want to put it in private equity, bitcoin, you know, and I’ve seen so many, honestly, kind of, kind of a very, very arrogant, you know, elitist that are saying, well, that these poor people work all their lives to save their money with 401k and now they’re going to get hoodwinked by a private deal, are going to put it in bitcoin just before it crashes. And I’m like, you know what? To hell with you. It’s, it’s, it’s, it’s our money. You know, we might not be blue bloods, might not be born into billions or whatever, but it’s our money. If you wanted to just take it and go throw it in the street, why do you care? Stay in your lane, man. You know, but against. It’s the arrogance of assuming that we peons, we, we, we don’t know how to invest our money. And we’re going to be Taken.
Right. Obviously that’s going to happen, okay? But I’ve seen more rich people lose more money than I have regular people. Because, you know, at least if we, if we lose some money, you, you know what, we don’t and moan and cry about it. We don’t go ask for a bailout, right? We, we wear it. We wear it right. We wear it and we learn from it. Okay? I’ve certainly done that over my career, all right? I’ve made some investments in private things that just didn’t work out at all. Oil and gas, a couple of oil and gas wells that I drove with some friends of mine to get complete dust.
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Nothing happened. This was a long time ago. And invested in a movie company. Friend of mine had started a movie company. I got to be a producer. That was a fun experience. I learned a lot from it. Got to go to New York for the premiere.
I mean that was all, that was all just an interesting experience that, that didn’t pay a penny. I got the tax write offs in both of those, by the way, which is kind of the reason I did it anyway, so. But look, I’ve made, I’ve made my share of mistakes and I’m going to tell you, I don’t like making this anymore. I’m going to be on Wayne’s show tonight at 6:30 7:30 Central. 7:30 Eastern. 6:30 Central. War zone, which you can watch, you know, anywhere online stream. It’s, it’s Gateway pundit.
You can stream it through Wayne’s X account. It’s right there live on his X account, which is a pretty cool feature. Anyway, this is something I point, I always try to make when we’re trying to explain to people why it is that we’ve been able to beat the market 18 to 21 years, why we’re beating the market handily again this year. So knock on wood. This should be 19 of 22. Maybe there’s somebody that’s done better. We don’t know who that is but. And we don’t advertise that.
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But you know, all of our returns are right there in the back office. But the point I always make is I’ve made my mistakes. I made those in my first half of my career and I don’t. I’m 63 now and we have a lot of people. Great. These are great people that are here with us. These many of these many of you. Friends.
Friends now, you know, and the very last thing, Tyler and I. And now that Sam is going to be joining us, their last thing the heritage boys want to do is, is hurt anybody we care about. So you know, we, we take what we do very seriously. We don’t take ourselves that seriously, but what we do very seriously. And you know, as I’ve said before and I, I, I just, honestly this is just how I feel. I’ve talked to Cindy about this a lot. The boys know this. I think everything I’ve done in my career has prepared me for this bull market.
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I, it’s like I see, I see it’s like I have the playbook and I see it, you know, not that I, you know, not that I can day trade and do all the short term stuff. I’m not talking about that. I’m talking about where this is going, where we are now in this bull market and where it’s going. And again today, Trump signing this, this bill where your money, you can put whatever you want to private deals, Bitcoin, whatever you want to put it in. Again, this is liquidity, right? That’s by the way, that liquidity is not even included. It’s not included in 2 money supply. If 2 money supply is already what, $23 trillion, right, what’s it going to be now? Because when this money is liquid, right, and when it’s in the system, it will be counted. What’s into money is probably going to go to 30 trillion.
What, what’s money market money going to go to? Because people transfer it out into a money market, you know, before they invest it. What’s that going to go to? Right now it’s seven and a half trillion. What’s it going to go 10 again? There’s just so much money. It’s a liquidity fueled bull market number one. And as we covered here a lot and again I just hear nobody saying this and it blows my mind. Everybody wants to be in America. We are the, we are with the final bastion of free market capitalism. No country comes close to us when it comes to again, free market capitalism.
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And, and what we are, we’ve called this the wild west or free market capitalism. I have, I think, honestly, I think that nails it. I think that’s exactly where we are, that we’re going to be able to do what we want, when we want with our money. And the opportunities are going to be like they’ve never been before. And again there are only so many stocks. I mean this is, this is what fueled this kind of supply demand story is what fuels amlta, which is what we are seeing. All right. By the way, today we had some weakness, good open Weakness.
Midday, Trump happened to say this is when it started, frankly. Trump happened to say in an interview, yeah, there might be some inflation that comes through. It’s sporadic. There might be some inflation. He’s just being honest from this tariff deal. Just being honest. And the networks ran with that. That’s what I saw everybody talking about.
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Oh, Trump admits, Trump admits. Like we haven’t had infl all these years. There’s a, something big is happening here, folks, for gold. Right as I’m just looking at gold right now. Trading after hours. Right. Goes up $45 an ounce right now. Ties to the day at this very moment.
34, 79 an ounce. Okay, so we’re, what is that? I don’t know. We’re very close. We’re very close to all time highs, about 50 bucks or so. You know, something like that. And it’s just gold has been closing well, you know, the smart money hour is so important and gold’s been trading like something’s going on. And I think we’re getting an idea of what it is. Tom.
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And I’m just talking about this. You may have seen this in the bitcoin reserve legislation like this going through Congress now that has not been approved yet. That is going to be approved. Another one of Trump’s promises that he’s going to keep in that legislation is a section on gold being repriced. A lot of, you know this and again, it’s kind of funky detail. So I, I, I won’t get into the minutia here, but gold has been carried on the books of the government at like 35, 36. It’s something like that. It’s ridiculously low.
Again, gold is 34, is almost 3500 now. And so the repricing this number one is going to be great for the balance sheet for, for, for, for the government, for the taxpayer. I honestly don’t know why it’s getting, but I think we’re getting a snapshot. Why? Because these Federal Reserve certificates that are in, that are, they’re in gold when those are exchanged. And that’s what the bitcoin legislature. I got to read through this tonight, but that is, I read through it today. That is what the bitcoin legislation says. The old certificates will be exchanged for new certificates.
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What does that mean? It may mean that we’ll find out whether or not the goal is even there to begin with. They’re going to exchange old certificates for new gold certificates. That tells me that’s accounting, that’s an accounting process going on here. And so if the gold ain’t there, you’re talking about physical deliveries have already been, you know, sky high, then we’re talking even more. Right. So I think there’s something big is going on with gold. Something bigger than, than we all know right now. I think that obviously the action in gold has been telling us that it’s another great discounting mechanism.
It’s like the market, you know, going up like it is. Well that means good news is coming. That’s what the market’s telling you. If the market’s going down a bunch, oh guess what? We should expect some bad news here in the next month or two, right? Well right now we’re not seeing that, are we? I think that’s what goals, something big is coming and I mean bigger than just the money printing and the debt issuance and that’s again that’s enough itself. But the bigger point, I think the biggest point if I’m going back over decades and I know this story pretty well is that gold has been manipulated lower for literally for I think three decades now. Gold has been manipulated lower for three decades. This has been proven in a court of law but you can’t get anything in force on it. You know, JP Morgan, I think in four separate trials had been found guilty of criminality, not civil criminal offenses.
And what Jamie Dimon’s mentioned in these, what happens? Nothing. I mean all in the books he’s a criminal, he’s named, he’s found guilty. It is astonishing what’s been allowed to happen in the gold market. But again that’s the power of the Federal Reserve and these major money center banks. So actually now another high of 3483 now ticking up again up almost fifty bucks now, up one and a half percent today. This actually goals telling us that the folks and look, we’re broken record on this. There is no reason, no good reason to keep your money in a bank. It’s not safe because you’re losing every.
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That’s what we also found hidden in this as well and the Federal Reserve’s own documents, they’re forced to admit that inflation has been almost 9% a year because that’s what gold is going up over a certain time frame. And again I shouldn’t I need to dig into this but I’ve seen it now twice from people I respect. And so again we know why gold is going up. We know why it’s going to keep going up. The central bank buying has been unbelievable and the same thing for China and governments around the world. So there’s no reason to keep the cash in the bank account. There’s no good reason for that. You’re just going to lose to the markets.
It’s the one simple thing that everybody can do. And it may not feel simple because you maybe think you’re taking on risk, but over, over a time, gold has beaten the market since, since 2000. In the last 25 years, gold has outperformed the S&P 500. And there are ways to do it without having to buy physical. If you don’t want to do that, you know you can buy one. One good option is phys. I need to start including this in some write ups. I think we may even want to take a position in that just so I’m forced to talk about it.
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You know, we, in every day’s letter, you know, we list our focus, list our bias, our stocks. We want people owning right now, right? And we never have more than like 15. But I should probably recommend p h y s. That’s a simple p h y s. If I was a military guy I could tell you what that means and their terminology. But anyway, P H Y S, that is the physical. What is the full name of this thing? Sprott Asset Management. Physical Gold Trust.
And it is exactly what it sounds like. Every dollar invested, they must buy gold with it. And there’s, there’s no other, there’s no other, there’s another one like it. But this, this got a market cap of $12 billion, been around a long time. So if you don’t want to buy physical gold, in other words having to store it or find someone to store it for, you know all these gold storage places all over the country. Texas has a new one’s pretty cool. But if you don’t do that, you can certainly buy phys. Because gold is going higher, folks.
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I think our target is 4,000 for year end. It’s again almost 3,500 now. And then our cycle high for this bull market is 8,000. And everything about what I’m feeling now tells me that’s going to be on the low side. If bitcoin can go from nothing to 100, what is 100? Big day today again on this news that Trump’s going to allow 401 s to be invested in bitcoin and private investments then that’s when bitcoin started getting legs again today. Now it’s up to 117,200, up almost 2% of the day. But if bitcoin can go from nothing to 117,000 high was 123,000. Why can’t gold go to 15 or 20 or 30,000? Why can’t it? I think it may.
Anyway, you want to own it. So thank you. President Trump was another, again, keeping a promise. Sign this legislation allowing regular people, right, regular people to do what they want with their money. And that’s the only way it should be. If you hear anybody else say it any other way, then you just know you’re listening to a smarmy, arrogant blue blood or someone that thinks they are right. This the great thing about this market, this president is he is the president, a little guy and the things he’s doing are empowering us. And it’s just so, so refreshing and so welcomed.
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And like, I’m still in kind of shock this is happening, to tell you the truth. And I think a lot of people are, which is why the first sign of trouble, like this Epstein stuff, right? First sign of trouble you have. I don’t know what percent, I would say probably 20% of people that call themselves Trump supporters, they’re off the bandwagon immediately. They’re just looking for an excuse. Okay. Which I just think is crazy. Again, I’ve had my issues, but they were big things, not small little conspiracy theories. And again, I don’t know the Epstein story, I’m sure there’s a lot to it, but the point being, people get so angry and get off the Trump train for just anything like that, instead of looking at what this guy is accomplishing for us so much in the first, what is this, six months still in his second term.
It really is remarkable. Kind of got to pinch yourself. At least I do. And this is, you know, again, he said golden age for America. He’s doing the things that, to, to make it that this morning I, I wrote up a pretty long letter because we’re going to cover this with Wayne tonight about the Trump Economic Miracle 2.0. And I was going to use this podcast to kind of go through it, but I do know this pretty well. But I just want to talk about a couple of points that I made here. First of all, I said this morning, for all intents and purposes, Jay Powell, his time is gone.
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His time as fetch here has come to an end. And that wasn’t just me saying giving something backhanded to Jay Powell because I’m obviously not a fan of his. I’ve been calling for his resignation for three years. I’ve done that on TV now for three years. Maybe somebody else did it on tv. I don’t know, I know I was one of the first that did do it and I’ve consistently said it because it’s the worst fair chair of our time. Right? And there’s, there’s not a close second. He’s got too many mistakes.
He’s in the, he’s, he’s, he’s in the, he’s in the, in the bag for the, for his cartel buddies. And it’s never been more clear clear than it is now. But today Hal announced the replacement for Coogler. This, this girl on the Fed that just up and quit last week. No one’s even seen a reason. What is going on here? She just, how do you not vote and just quit? And nobody’s asked how is that possible? It was only 12 fed, 12 governors and she was one of them. Anyway, the replacement today, guy named Kieran who’s been with Trump for a long time, you know, big, big, big, big America first guy helped Trump design a lot of his America first financial related legislation. So he’s going to be in the Fed.
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I think he’s, he’s, I think, I don’t, I think it’s got to go through a Senate approval. But anyway he’s going to be there and I, I think he’s considered to be a safe choice. And then the, the Bloomberg today, which means it’s almost certainly not true, said that Waller, current Fed member would become the new Fed chair. I think that is a trial balloon and I’ll be surprised if Waller is. There’s some things about Waller that really don’t match up that well with Trump and of course Bloomberg’s not going to make that clear anyway, we have plenty of time for that. But again Powell’s power is gone. There’s essentially going to be a shadow Fed person inside the Federal Reserve. He’s going to have at least three dissenting voices now.
And now that it’s safe to be a sending voice, I’ll bet you, I would bet at least five of the Fed chairman will be they all vote Fed governors. I’ll bet at least five will be dissenting voices. Powell, his time is coming, going, he should just resign and maybe he will but again think about how bullish this is for the market, okay? Because we know it’s going to happen right after Powell’s gone and probably before rates are going to be slashed, lower slashed. We cover this often. Truflation is the, is the, the best source that I’ve seen. We’re tracking, honestly tracking inflation and again they, they update every day, real time they have 80 different components. You don’t have to wait for the states to send in their numbers. And none of that, this is all AI real time stuff.
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And they have inflation right now and they update throughout the day, but as of this morning it was 1.75%. The Fed, the BLS has, Bureau Statistics has inflation at 2.7%. So they’re essentially one full percentage point lower if that’s the real number. Trump’s right. The Fed funds rate shouldn’t be 4.33%, which is where it is now. An effective funds rate of 4.33%, it should be 3.33%. So that’s what my forecast is. Right.
I put a prediction out that within one year, 10 year yields would be 3 point less than 3.2% to 4.2% now and GDP growth would be better than 5%. And again, I feel very confident about both of those. And it’s funny, when I, when I talk about this on Twitter or wherever, I get a lot of pushback. People, you know, you sound, you sound like a little bit of a crazy person. Kid. What happened to you? You too much sun? What’s going on? This Texas summer’s getting to you. And that’s just exactly how I see things. But again, in that environment, what are the, what are the top interest rate sensitive groups that you want to own if rates are going to drop 100 basis points, right.
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At least 100 basis points over the next year? Well, tech, semis, housing. I mean, if you’re with us here, you know, we have positions in all these. Gold, gold up to now, 50 bucks an ounce, silver, which by the way, continues to look great on the chart. We are looking that, we’re looking for a position to start with. We’re just not there yet. But on a full breakout then. Yeah, because gold, I mean, silver’s going to 50 on a breakout. And so it’s, it’s, it’s, I think that that’s gonna be a quick move, I think, by the way, but we, you know, maybe it wouldn’t hurt to wait for that breakout to take place.
Anyway, we’re looking. And then I said housing, right? And miners, obviously. Miners. So you know that, that group, tech, housing, semis, gold, silver, miners. I mean, by the way, that’s how we’re positioned here. And we have a few others too. Special situations, small caps. Oh, small caps.
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That’s why I didn’t say it either. Small caps. That’s the other one. Because again, just like regular families are being destroyed by Rates being too high. Small businesses are also who rely on loans to get by, especially in tough times and to fund and start their operations. This 7% mortgage and this rate should not be where they are. And I think everyone knows that now. But anyway, let’s move on here today.
Again, we’re day intraday pullback. We did finish with losses of 224 points in the Dow Jones down half percent. But look at this Nasdaq. A NASDAQ at one point was down. I saw down 85 or something and I didn’t see every tick today, but it was down close to 100. And then here comes a smart money hour. Nasdaq up 73 at the close of 4, 3, 10 of 1%. But semis today, I mean, just beast mode again that you just can’t, they can’t stop up 1.7% today.
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You know, Nvidia just at one point was down what, 4% of the day and it just came powering back. It closed up 1% of the day. And again, I just pulled this chart up, the semi SP 500, the relative streak chart that we love to talk about here, we focus on is just right there. You know, it’s just not budging. It’s like, no, no, we’re, we’re, we’re going to keep people in this market, people that understand, if you understand the direction of semis, you understand the direction of the market. And that’s just so rock solid. Tyler just told me, by the way, that these latest sentiment surveys came in. AAI survey.
I didn’t, I didn’t, I didn’t track it this week. It’s released every Wednesday night. I missed it this week. Tyler, Tyler didn’t miss anything. Over the last week, there was an increase of 10% bears because we had this little shakeout. The total now in AI investor sentiment survey is 43% bears to 34.9% bulls. 8% more bears than bulls. We’re coming off of all time high after all time high after all time.
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Do you understand how textbook this is? If you’re contrary and you see this, you go, my God, you couldn’t draw us any better. You could not draw this up any better. That’s exactly what you want to see. As Tyler said, you want to see the weekends getting out at the first sign of trouble. You want to see them take their money and not take it. Because everybody’s been talking about seasonality and how bad it is. It’s just not that bad. Remember, they say seasonality is not good in August and September, they’re not wrong.
But did you see the average losses for the month? It’s like one to one and a half percent. It’s like nothing. It’s not like we’re gonna have a crash these months. October’s that month. Yeah. So we’ll keep an eye on that. That, that, that’s, that’s the month that we, you know, gives me. I still have bad dreams about that month.
Okay. But we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. Also, the fear and greed index is now back down to a 55. What? A week to week and a half ago it was extreme breed 73. So again, it just doesn’t take much. It doesn’t take much. Okay, let’s take a look at the hood today. Very easy to tell this story today.
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Eternals been like this all week, frankly. Flat. We saw advanced decline for both NYC and nasdaq. I mean just basically flat volume. Volume was positive for Nasdaq up, you know, 55% positive. And it was NYC volume barely negative. And today we also had about 120 more stocks hitting a 52 week high. Hit the 52 week low.
So sector watch, guess what flat we had. Six sectors finished higher, five finished lower. Nothing really either way. One percent move lower in healthcare. Good, good, keep it going. That’s karma. Karma working its magic. Utilities up 1%.
Utilities powering ahead all time after all time high. Again, data centers, that’s the big story. But also as we said here, and again, I don’t hear people say this, I’m surprised by it because it’s real. Utilities are the largest borrowers of capital in the country. They borrow more money than anyone in the country. So if rates, if, if they’re forecasting and discounting, what’s going to happen if the utilities are raving higher like this? They’re telling you rates are going lower. You get all these signals that tell you, in my opinion, that rates are going lower. And that just helps with our, with our guesswork, if you will.
All right, let’s think of what else here. Oh, commodities again. Gold right now 49, 45, 34. Adco stuff. 1.44%. Silver today. Even more up 1.64%. 3852 copper today.
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Flat on the day. Four $4.41 a pound. Crude oil flat. I mean again, a lot of flats today actually crude oil is down half, half buck a barrel at 6,382 and found the day. Bitcoin. Once again, let’s get a fresh quote here. Last trade power to head 170,364, up just over 2% the last 24 hours. Again, a lot of money’s coming in, making an already amazing supply demand story even more bullish.
All right, folks, that’s it for the day. Hey, hope you had a great day and even better night. Always appreciate you. Listen, we’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.
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