In today's episode, Kip dives into the current economic landscape with optimism and strategic insights. He explores the flourishing entertainment and sports sectors, focusing on the NBA's massive $76 billion media contract, and highlights a major tech upgrade cycle driving investment in AI and space exploration. Lastly, he covers the continued all time highs from tech and the semiconductors.

Don’t look back to the market is closed. Good Wednesday afternoon, everyone Kip Herriage here with the VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. If you’re long this market, you had a very good day today. We’ll get to that in a second.

I wanted just to remind everybody, if you’re with us in the VRA, I sent out a notice here, a VRa alert about this this afternoon. Lost soldier oil and gas, which is a private oil and gas play we were invited into with my good friend Mark Bruner of about 35 years. Massive discovery in Wyoming. That looks to be the largest discovery in Wyoming in decades, and they haven’t even gotten to the deep stuff yet. This is an interesting play. Anyway, there is a small amount available. If you have an interest in it, reply back and let us know. I’ll follow up with you.

We’ll send you The PowerPoint, the zoom, we sent it out today from our last Zoom meeting and be glad to talk to you about it because I don’t think this won’t last long. Let us know. But again, another great data. All time highs today, folks in Nasdaq. Nasdaq, 100. Semiconductors all time high as well. Nvidia now.

[00:01:09]:
Nvidia and Apple battling for the first $3 trillion companies. Get used to this, you know, just get used to this. This is the beginning, not the end. This is, again, for our new folks, if that. It sounds like I’m saying crazy things. Look, this is what we’ve been saying now for close to two years. Again, if you’re new, wrote this in the big bribe roaring 2020s, innovation revolution. Everything is playing out.

Not everything, of course, but we actually, we put a part in the book that said Joe Biden might have a bill Clinton moment, meaning stock market performance, economic boom time. Okay, now, we haven’t gotten to the economic boom time just yet, but we’re headed that way. Can you feel that? Because that’s coming. Stock market is happening. And the parallels are interesting because, you know, again, I was a financial advisor in 95 to 2000, took, I want to say, three companies. I think it was two companies public during that five year timeframe, and it was very actively engaged, had a blast. Our clients were firing us if we didn’t make them 10% a month. So we haven’t gotten to that, that crazy yet.

[00:02:23]:
We’re getting there right now. It’s just Nvidia. It’s semiconductors and a few other stocks. Right. But you see, it’s building. It’s happening. That, that, that’s going to, if this is the same environment that it looks to be, this is going to get a little insane. And I’ve said this many times, we think I actually had said on Charles Payne show several times.

He asked me, where are we? Kip, you think it’s 1995? Where are we? And I’ve always said 1996 because, you know, it’s already started. Right. But, but that’s not right. This is 95. This is the beginning. And I think one of the reasons that is that’s the fact, is because this is a much broader and more balanced and a more common sense move. These are real companies here we’re talking about, okay, the Nvidia Apple, go down the list. These are real companies that are evaluations of one tree and two tree and now $3 trillion with unbelievable earnings and revenue that did not exist 95 to 2000.

[00:03:26]:
Most of these companies were just, either didn’t exist or just an idea. They were some speck of an idea. And the ones that got really hot, you know, the broad comes in the world, etcetera, you know, they were real, but most of them were air. You know, there was, they put a.com behind this legitimately. They put a.com behind their name and their stock price was sore. That’s why they did it. But as we said, as you probably know by now, 90% of those companies rat a business in just a few short years. This is not, not that environment.

So this is, this is, if you’re looking for a pure comparison, this is 95. This is beginning because it’s going to go longer. In the book, we said this, you know, that we are in the roaring 20. There’s really no, I’m going to cover this more in a minute. There’s just no more debating this, folks. We’re in the roaring 2020s. We are. And I used to get side eye looks and I talk about it on Twitter.

Even in our updates, I get people reply back, man, just lay off that. You can’t see that. Look who’s president, look at all the negatives. And again, I reject that entirely. There is a sigh up of negativity that’s been in place for a very long time before we wrote the book. I’ve been talking about this in the VRA for forever. This psyop and negativity, and it’s pervasive and it’s real and it’s not. You can’t even say that it’s not debatable.

[00:04:46]:
Right? Is a sign for negativity. I’m gonna cover that more in a moment as well. But the point being Bill Clinton. In the parallel, Bill Clinton was hated by Republicans. I’m a lifelong independent, and I just happened to have voted for George Bush in that election. The daddy. But Bill Clinton was hated. He was a radical, right.

His wife was even worse. And, of course, then he got impeached. Monica Lewinsky, the whole shebang. And there was a lot of fear. That’s the point. A lot of fear, a lot of negativity, especially in red states. And we’re seeing that now. And I think this is, this is, this is, this is the thing that, honestly, it makes me.

I’ll be candid with you. Makes me sad, and it’s something we have to combat. We hear this and see this all the time. Right? And I think you can know what I’m talking about. This might even apply to some of you. My guess is it does. Look, mostly, you don’t do what we do, right? And so I think these, these conversations are really important because we hear this all day long. Not quite as much now, because people are like, well, whether it’s.

Whether they know they’re talking about or not, they have been. Right? So, okay, stop giving them shit. I mean, that’s kind of what’s happened here. But that wasn’t the case after we wrote the book. I mean, the. The feedback was just. What are you talking about? It was really. Ask Tyler.

[00:06:12]:
I mean, it was just. It was pervasive, and a lot of it got ugly. You know, like, why are you saying these things? We just had a stolen election. We just had a plan, demic. We just look at who’s president, right? And so, you know, again, we’ve had to fight that battle. And I think what’s sad about this is that the people in this country, the people in this country that should be winning, they should be prospering from the roaring 2020s, which is just getting, building the people that should be in the stock market, making bank, that people should own tech and semis, etcetera, starting businesses thriving, focusing on those things. The red pilled America. So much of red pilled America is not doing it.

They’re scared to death. And I got to call out a lot of people on this. I got to call. I’m not going to do it by name, but you don’t have to think very hard to realize who I’m talking about. Any so many republican conservative voices in the media and Wall street, etcetera, financial advisors, et cetera, the whole cadre have got people scared to death. They’ve been in cash or they’ve been, look, they’ve done okay, money markets. Money markets have paid 5%. That’s better.

[00:07:27]:
But inflation is eating most of that up. So you’re not really getting ahead, are you? But you have a whole. The people, again, that should be benefiting the foundationally strength, the foundational strength of this country, right? The people that love America, that love God, love their family, appreciate the, understand and appreciate the constitution. Most of these folks are not participating in this market. Now, that’s changing, but it’s changing really slowly. And I say all that to make this point. That’s what happened in 95 to 2000. But it’s worse now.

It’s worse now. So, you know, we’re doing our, we’re doing our best to try to change those attitudes. And how do you do that? You do that with facts. You do that with facts. And you, sometimes you have to keep repeating those facts. That’s what we do. I did that this morning in our letter. Again, let me start here at the open again.

All time highs today. Nasdaq today. Our leader up 2% on the 1.96%. Actually, a big 330 points today. Right. Go, Nasdaq. Semiconductors today, up 5%. SMH and semi ETF, 5% all time high.

[00:08:45]:
Wow. Right? We own Soxl was up 13 and a half percent today. Three time leverage ETF. We took. We have two positions. Our initial position, which we’re long from $11 this year. We’ve got mass, you know, massive gains in this thing, okay. From the bear market lows, which we called on the day.

We did call that on the day when we pounded the table on the semis that day. That’s legitimate. That’s what we did. And we have proof. We approve all this. Our portfolio is triple timestamps, as we say. All documented, of course. But we sold, we sold our new position, our trading position.

What was that? I’m losing track of time here. Late Friday, maybe, or month. I don’t. We got stopped out. I think it was late last week. I stopped out. We made 46% on that trade in five weeks. I mean, hard to complain with that.

Annualize that, right? But it’s up, you know, today, we sure wish we stoned it. We got stopped out at 50. It’s 54 now. Right today, up. 6640 is here. So the point being, the groups that should be going higher and leading, that’s exactly what’s happening. They are leading. Get Nasdaq led today.

[00:09:55]:
Semis actually led, semi slid. Nasdaq, Nasdaq led. The market, that’s called textbook bull market action. That dow today, Dow Jones actually today was down big today. I saw it down, what, 156 points? Rallied, finished at 97 points. Russ, 2000. Small caps have been just a tale of two cities. They’ve been red hot or they’ve been disastrous.

Primarily, we’re talking about a two year bear market in small caps today, up 1.5%. A lot of value here. We own them. We own them. And so we love them, but they have been frustrating. No question about that. And then SB 500 also up today, up big, 1.2%, up 63 points in the day. Ten year yields, we’ve been pounding the table on this, have we not? Ten year guilds getting smoked today down to below 4.3% on the ten year.

[00:10:43]:
Wonder why that might be. I wonder what the ten year. I wonder all the bond market is discounting. What are they, what message are they telegraphing us? Right. Well, we know what that message is, don’t we? Today, Canada cut rate. The Canada bank of Canada cut rates today. Tomorrow, the ECB, European Central bank, they will cut rates tomorrow. And the Fed is going to follow in the very near future.

Now, whether that’s, it won’t be next week when, at the FOMC meeting. But by the way, their commentary is going to be interesting. And I expect Jay Powell to stay the course. That’s what he’ll do. And he’ll say, you know what? We’re data dependent. And, yeah, we’re still on, on plan to cut rates. Right. Just for our new folks.

We said from the beginning of the year there would be two to three rate cuts this year. I believe that’s exactly where it’s going to come down. I think that’s exactly. I think we’ll probably have two, maybe three, not more, probably. This is a strong economy. And again, this is, that’s really one of our base case. Our primary base case is that we’re entering a structural bull market and a structurally strong economy, and that’s what’s carrying this. There’s no, there’s no smoke and mirrors here, folks.

This is legit. This is happening based on earnings, basically. It’s truly a strong economy, innovation, revolution, driving everything, which includes, by the way, disinflation. Look at the bond market. We think yields will continue to go lower. I want to share just a couple other things this morning before I get to some other data here for you, the internals, etcetera. Tyler said this in his podcast yesterday. I was part of my subject line this morning in our very letter.

[00:12:24]:
Tyler called this the resilient bull market. It just is. You know, we came out of Q one earnings reports, right? And now, you know, you believe this. We’re going to have Q two earnings starting at the end of the beginning of next month. Something to think about, you know, beginning of month fund flows. Just, just remember this, the final week of June after the market we’re having now. Imagine what it’s going to do when all this new money comes in. And then you have people getting ready for Q two earnings, because Q one earnings were fantastic.

But it’s kind of common to have after you have a big move higher, you have a lull. So we ended Q one earnings. We got to extreme overbought, you know, which we told you ten days ago, Dow Jones hit extreme overbought on steroids. And right away we had a big shakeout. These momentum oscillators in the very system they work, I think you probably, if you’ve been with this, you know, they work. They just do. Maybe one of the reasons that so many follow them. But, you know, with our settings, we think we’ve got to set just right.

[00:13:24]:
So we were, this market was set up for a shakeout and they tried to do it, didn’t they? The transports, lovingly call them the trannies, were down 9% in just over a month. Okay, that’s our second most important economic indicator of your investing system. Number one, of course, is housing. Housing leads everything. There is no more important sector or industry than housing for the obvious reason. Right. The average person, the most expensive thing they ever bought, buy in their life. It’s going to be a home or a series of homes.

And so that’s why housing is emotionally, there is nothing more important. But the trannies are right there and that get 9%. So we are extremely robot. We just finished the quarter. There was an opportunity here for the bears to make some money, and they just could not do it. Markets too resilient. So also, this is now the fourth day in a row, as Tyler just reminded me in our pre podcast meeting, this was our fourth day in row, folks, to have a strong smart money hour. That’s important.

[00:14:32]:
That’s, that’s important. And smart money hours called that for a reason. That’s a big tell. So, yeah, they want to help the market instead, what happened? Strong smart money hours, Nvidia and the semis just keep going. And then large cap, our largest mega cap tech stocks like Apple. Remember Apple? People are like, oh, my God, it’s in trouble. Trouble. It’s all time highs back, it’s back to all time highs.

So the bears had their shot. They missed. This is a tell. And again, I got to go back to sentiment one more time. I just, this can’t be stressed. This cannot be stressed enough. The negative sentiment out there. Look, fear greed index, what was it yesterday? Was 41, I think it was 41 yesterday with salaries, podcast.

That’s fear. It’s back to neutral today. But folks, we’re at all time highs and these sentiment indicators are still either either neutral or none of these things are stretched or at extreme greed, nowhere close to it. That is another tell. Again, this is what I think contrarians will continue to do really well because again, look who’s president. Look at the media, look at the slope of negativity. It’s real. It is real.

[00:15:46]:
And we can profit from that. So let’s keep being smart about this. Right? And again, now with the Fed cutting, about to cut rates globally, everyone’s cutting rates. This is, now we get to say something we hadn’t been able to say for a long time. Don’t fight the tape. That’s been in place for a long time, right? The market’s been going up, the trends up. Don’t fight the tape. But we hadn’t been able to say don’t fight the fed.

We had been able to say that. And now we’re about to say it now, whether they cut rates in July, September, whenever that’s coming, I think it’s safe to say it because everyone knows the messaging and the narrative is set. They’re going to cut rates. So that’s what’s kind of crazy also. I mean, really, these, these kind of, I’ve done this so long that when I say this, I try, I’m trying to make a point, but it’s also real that, here we go, right? We got the, probably the most accurate and powerful Wall street adage of all time, don’t fight the tape, don’t fight the Fed. Marty Zweig first said this in winning on Wall street in 1970s, okay, rest in peace, Marty. But he came up with this and he’s exactly right because this is the combo right here. And now we can say it.

But that’s what’s crazy is the, the bears coming out of the woodworks, people being so bearish and negative. Give me, but don’t fight the tip. And that’s just starting, right? That’s just starting. So this is all, that’s why by the dip has been and will remain the smartest farming strategies. Okay. Another theme of ours. And I really want to talk about this today because, you know, I don’t write about this often. You know, we talk about the roaring 2020s, but we, on this podcast, we get a chance to actually have that conversation.

[00:17:28]:
That’s why I love this medium of communication, because look at the signs we talk about. I like one of my favorite, I’m a big sports guy, right? Played basketball, coached basketball, AAU. And it’s still my favorite sport. It’s the, it is the best sport from athletic. Basketball players are the best athletes on the planet. That’s just the way it is. And yeah, I’m biased, but it also happens to be true. I mean, look what they do in the court.

And there’s no other sport where that kind of athleticism is on display. Not, not strength, necessarily. That might be football, right? But soccer, I mean, that’s phenomenal what these guys do with their feet. But basketball are the best, attracts the best athletes. And I love watching. I know a lot of you do as well. Of course, the NBA has turned off so many people. LeBron James has killed the NBA.

All that, right? Thank God he’s about to beat a party. But he’s just, he’s just, he’s a cancer on the whole sport. But NBA, you may have seen this day rubs this morning. The NBA just is closing today may have already closed this morning. The deal is done. NBC, ESPN and Amazon are combining to sign a $76 billion media contract with the NBA. 76 billion. If it was only the NBA, I might say it’s a one off, but it’s not.

[00:18:53]:
Every sport is just, I mean, they’re just bathing in money. Look at these contracts. And again, you can say bread and circuses. Yes, right. Roman Empire for sure. But it’s so much more than that because it doesn’t matter what industry you talk about. They are, they’re swimming in money. This is the roaring two thousand twenty s.

And again, as I wrote this morning, I mean, I am surprised that this statement surprises people. Look, we have a parallel. We have the 1920s, twenties. That’s. Why don’t you put it in the book? We’ve studied that. And like, okay, that happened then. History tends to repeat the noise, rhyme tends to repeat. Look, it’s roaring two thousand twenty s.

And here we are. So that’s important because it has a much larger message than just entertainment’s doing well or, you know, sports. Athletes are making a ton of money in the, you know, in the franchises that, that, that have their contracts. No, no, no. This is much deeper. Look at what’s happening. AI, look, look what’s happening in tech. When you have the largest tech companies in America.

[00:20:04]:
I think it’s the largest 15 tech companies in America, if I have this right, are reinvesting a hundred billion dollars back into their own business. That’s never happened before. Nothing close to that’s ever happened before. This is the AI bone innovation revolution we’ve been talking about. When that’s happening, know a couple of things, never bet against the stock market or the economy. Just, you’re literally crazy to do that. Okay? This is extending a much broader message of a tech upgrade cycle unlike we’ve ever seen before. And again, the key point here is it’s only getting started.

So if I can pass on one thing from my experience without any hyperbole, anything, know this, I worked in that timeframe. This is that on steroids? It’s, it’s, it’s, it. I can see it, but I don’t know. Some of the things are going to happen. That’s what’s going to blow us away. We’re starting to get an idea of the really cool science fiction, like things that are happening, right? Look at space exploration. What’s happening. We yawn now at the hundreds of satellites to get launched into space every month.

[00:21:14]:
Okay? And what’s happening there? Space exploration is going to get crazy. Big breakthroughs are coming there. And again, that’s a Matt, would they value SpaceX? Value what, $140 billion? Is that right? I think I’ve got that right. Insane private company, right? And they don’t need to raise money. The matter of fact, they’re about start giving some back, I think through dividends. That’s almost unheard of. Companies never give back. Private companies never give back money, right? Muscle don’t want to take in that public again.

The IPO market has yet to get hot. That’s going to happen again. This all happened in 95, 2000. We do have a playbook. That’s why it’s so instructive to go back to it. We had the 1920s as a playbook and we had the 95 to 2000 melt up as a playbook. And the rest is science. We have science fiction movies and tv shows to watch and books to read, right? That tell us the rest.

All these things we’ve been reading about are about to happen again. Autonomous vehicles, but again, robo taxis, big Tesla fans. Of course, we’ve owned it. I’ve owned it since 18, as you know. We love it. It’s one of our Vra ten baggers. Talk about all the time stock has been a complete disappointment. I mean, I’m just Beyonce.

[00:22:23]:
It’s been an utter disappointment. Stocks 175, that we own it here in the very portfolio 174. So this great bull market and this stock is doing nothing. But as I remind people, yeah, that is the case. But that’s a gift. That’s how I believe it should. I’m looking at it. It’s how we instruct people and try to teach people to look at it.

This gives us an opportunity to put more away every month, just like we’ve been doing bitcoin. Okay? Put it away. Buy it when it’s cheap. Warren Buffett. Buy your summer coats in the winter or winter coats in the summer. Right? And so that’s what we have an opportunity to do here, because again, in just a few years, robotaxis are going to transform and, well, not just the auto industry, the insurance business, because very few families are going to have cars. And probably inside of ten years, there’ll be no need to. You want to have the car payments, the insurance payments, the upkeep, the risk.

How about the risk? How about the risk of driving on the road? I mean, these autonomous vehicles are light years safer. And I know that the story that the bears like to say is, oh, look, someone died. Yes. Maybe someone said, it’s going to happen. Guess what? Going to happen. There’ll be mistakes. We’re talking about decreasing accidents on the road, deaths. I’m talking about on the road by 90%.

[00:23:46]:
Think about this, right? How great that for your kids and for your family. And so these robotaxis, this is fascinating, you know, the story. They’ll have, you know. No, but August 8, we’ll get the unveiling from Tesla, but there’ll be, you know, no steering wheel, no pedals, right? And they’ll just be everywhere. And so you get on, you get on your app, boom, hit one up, or you buy your own, have your own Tesla, rent it out, have used it as a, as a. As a ride share. It’s an income stream now. And so, again, there’s so many of these kinds of things happening.

Of course, AI is, you know, the big one that’s going to transform so much. Any concern I know is it’s going to destroy jobs. Maybe it will. I just know that in the, in history, technology’s only done one thing, innovations only done one thing, create more jobs throughout history. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. It’s. And I said it on Charles’s pain last time. Charles show, last time, you know that famous cover of the New York Times where they got the COVID it says the Henry Ford opens first car plant, you know, horse and buggy industry decimated, will be decimated, right? Hundreds of thousands of jobs gone or whatever the number is.

[00:25:05]:
And it’s, we laugh at it now, but that was what people were saying then. And of course, you know, we look back and it just seems comical. We won’t even believe that. And I think that’s going to be the case here. Technology and innovation always creates more jobs. I think that’s going to happen here as well. Very optimistic about the future for both America and the planet. And again, I think we have had a sign up of negativity that we need to start calling out, okay, let me spend a minute on this, because again, we pounded the table.

What I’m about to tell you, we’ve pounded the table on this for a couple years now. All time highs that tell you exactly how great this country is doing. The fact is american companies and consumers are in the strongest financial shape in decades. Fear sales. Right? Fear sales. You don’t hear that message, but it’s the truth. All time highs. Here we go.

[00:26:02]:
Home prices, net equity, and these are all time highs. Home prices, net equity in homes, consumer net worth, credit scores, and we have one third of Americans own their home outright. Again, this is not being talked about, is it now at the fact that since we’ve learned from the financial crisis in the last 15 years, Americans have reduced their debt to disposable income by 25%. That’s never happened before. This is unbelievable. It’s a huge positive for America and corporate, even, maybe even the bigger number from certain, from market point of view and investment point of view, is that corporate debt to market cap is at 50 year lows, 500:50 year lows. So as again, we’ve said this, I hate to be repetitive, but again, with new folks joining, it’s important that you hear this. This is the balance sheet information that we see at the beginning of economic expansions, not the end, at the beginning.

[00:27:03]:
And again, not to be a horse’s ass, but the truth is this, if you’re not aggressively long stocks and if you’re not bullish on the economy and on the future, I’m sorry, but you’re wrong. You are just wrong because this is happening. So we should all just spread this message, spread these, tell folks this stuff. People need to hear this. Red pilled America should not be, not participating in this boom time, especially one that’s coming. Remember, it’s the boom time, economically, we’re seeing it. Economy is doing good, but we’re nowhere near five, six, seven, 8% GDP growth. We’re going there.

That’s probably why rates will stay higher for longer. Okay, but be interesting, because the disinflation from innovation will be battling strong economic growth. If the Fed knows what they’re doing, they’ll just get out of the way. Let the market take care of it. Let the ten year yield go where it wants to go, which is probably down to 3% again. Okay, again, today is 4.2. Just four, just below 4.3%. And then think about the boom time in housing take place right in real estate.

[00:28:11]:
Oh, my God, it’s going to be, this is, this is that time. This is that time. So I just get very, very optimistic and excited about this. And again, I just wish and I hope that red tilt America can, can see through the nonsense, all right? And that is happening because people are smarter than these financial talking heads and the media perma bears. And again, they’re all using fear to build their list and sell their commercials. People are smarter than that. And so I know people are seeing through it, but a lot of people that are very locked into the negativity. And that’s what I wish would change.

Hopefully people are being open minded, at least. I want to talk about bitcoin real quick because this is important. You know, we love bitcoin. First bought it, Tyler first bought it at 600, recommended the VRA at 2000, sold it in 2021 at 58,000, waited until June of last year, and we bought it again at 28,800. So we’ve done well gains of a couple thousand percent plus. And our new, for our new purchase, the 28,800, we’re up. I just ran these numbers this morning. Bitcoin is up 161% a year.

[00:29:25]:
That’s when we bought it a year ago. 161% in a year. The SEC approved ETF. You know the story, but it’s what happened. I don’t have the data yet today, but yesterday’s data was really interesting. Yesterday’s happened to be, by the way, day 100 of these bitcoin ETF’s being in trading, right? Well, we had 887 million in net inflows yesterday. That’s the second highest day so far. How about that? Does that tell you what’s going on here, right? The word spreading.

More and more people are, more and more institutional money is coming in. And folks, we don’t even have, we have like 70% of us financial advisors, US financial firms that have even approved it yet. They can’t even buy it yet. Most financial advisors cannot buy it for themselves or their clients. This is gonna get crazy. We also, by the way, 16 straight positive days. I mean, that’s, that. That tells you a lot right there.

Right. And so then I had the follow up question to that. It’s a great question, is also kept. Oh, that all sounds great. Why isn’t bitcoin 100,000? Why, why is it only 71, 3000 right now? 77,001, 231,200. Why isn’t it a hundred thousand? Why isn’t it melting up? I mean, they’re only mining 450 coins a day now. Right after the having it dropped it from 900 to 450. So why isn’t it booming more? Well, the reason is the futures markets.

[00:30:55]:
Futures markets, that’s where all the trading is and that’s short term positioning. There’s hedging. So it’s a, futures serve a really important role because it allows people to take a position and then hedge, so the risk is not so great. But that also has an impact on volatility and on the upside and downside, by the way, works both ways, but it also can limit the upside movement. I think that’s what’s happening here. But again, I go back to my Tesla comparison. Thank you. Please stay cheap as long as you can so I can make more money, so I can buy more bitcoin.

Right. That is, I believe that’s the right way to look at this because I think the writings on the wall after the halvings, the moves have been insane. This is the fourth having again, to repeat after the first halving, in twelve months, bitcoin went up 7900%. That was in 2012. Second half every four years. Second having 2016, bitcoin went up 2900 percent in 18 months. After third having 2020, bitcoin went up 700%. 18 months.

So the big moves take place after the halving. What’s interesting here is now we’ve got technical breakouts. These charts look fantastic. Bitcoin’s now broken out to in one money supply. That’s enough. That’s also when the biggest moves are taking place. All these things are, again, the stars are aligning here, planets are aligned, as they say. And so it is a fantastic buy here.

[00:32:24]:
And there’s some good derivative ways to play it too, that we’re looking at here and that we’re using in parabolic options program. But again, the SEC is yet to approve options trading for these. What is it, ten? I don’t know. The number of bitcoin ETf’s have improved. Now, frankly, I think the list has grown. But like, we use Ark B, which Cathie woods are financial, ARkb is assembled. That’s the one that we use. So if you don’t buy bitcoin straight up through coinbase or whatever, or, you know, just hold it privately, then.

Then we write. We like the ETF Arkb. But none of these ETF’s have been approved for options trading. Gary Gensler with the SEC, it won’t do it now. Yesterday he did open for questions. It’s not exactly the right phrase there, but open for feedback anyway, it doesn’t matter. He sent a signal that they are going to. They’re going to prove it.

The pressure on and options, it’s not just rank speculation. Options, again, gives the average person you want to buy bitcoin. When they can hedge it, you can sell calls, sell puts against it. Right? You have options. You can do straddles, all these fancy options plays which I really have no interest in whatsoever. Number one, I don’t understand them. Number two, if I did them, I’d have to explain to people, no, thank you. No, I’m a simple Texas boy.

I just barely understand options by themself. No way I’m doing iron condors and all these. Look, I wish I did. I know people that use these and do as hedging, even for income, that do incredibly well. Maybe one of these days when I get older, and I’m not young now necessarily, but maybe when I’m 70 or 80 or 90, maybe then I’ll use these as a hedging and income strategy. But the point being, that’s not what people will be doing with these bitcoin ETF’s. They’ll serve an important role. Gary Gensler again, he’s beholden to all the wrong people, but they are going to improve these bitcoin ETF’s.

[00:34:27]:
And again, that will give folks another option. But if it weren’t for futures trading, bitcoin would be a lot higher now. Again, our minimum target for the year is 100,000. Someone asked me this morning, what do we think in this bull cycle run? Where do I think bitcoin is going? I think 250,000. I think that’s going to be a good targeted move for bitcoin in this bull cycle. I think this bullish run is going to last a while, but I think 250 is probably a good upper target for bitcoin. All right, what else here? All right, let’s get to the internals and wrap this up. And commodities, of course, internals today.

We’re good. I’m going to keep it short and sweet. Two to one, positive advanced decline and volume actually a little better. But again, rounding down here, but they’re both very solid. Good day today. And we had about 50 more stocks into 50 low. Remember, it’s been, we’ve got some topsy turbulence. Trading internals had not been good.

That’s right. Again, the bears had an opportunity here at the market. They could not do it. So now we’re back off to the races again in our commodity watch. Excuse me, sector watch, seven sectors higher for lower. Technology, of course, led the way up 2.7%. Communication services all time high as well, as Tyler told me, up one and a half percent of the downside. Utilities down half percent.

No raw action in the downside whatsoever. Commodities again yesterday. Gold was down like 1% yesterday, but the miners got smoked. GDX down almost 4% yesterday. Those kind of days just drive me crazy. That was a shakeout. It shouldn’t have happened. We have rates going lower.

[00:36:07]:
We had the dollar going lower. We have precious metals and miners in a new bull market. There’s no reason whatsoever. Light volume. But that’s what happens to the miners until we get volume coming in. And that has not happened. Okay. Until we get volume coming in to the miners, that’s going to happen.

By the way, this is that epic bull market for this group. But that’s when we’ll really see an explosive move higher. It just not happen. So in the meantime, if one fund comes in and sells a decent position, it freaks everybody out here from the sellers again, these short term shakeouts are buying opportunities. Gold today up back up $28 an ounce today, 23.75. That’s up 1.2%. It’s over. Up 1.8% at 3013.

Copper up another 2% today, 462. It also had better shake out again, got overbought. The charts was ready for a shakeout, and now it’s pulled back a little bit. It’s probably very good buy. It is certainly a great buy. Long term natural gas today. This is a great story. Great story.

The electrification of the country, natural gas and nuclear is coming on. What a great story. I think gas is really going to get on a run here today. Up almost 7% at 276. And again, lost soldier. Right. That’s if this is truly the largest discovery in Wyoming in decades. Talk about perfect timing.

[00:37:26]:
This is Mark Bruner’s swan song. He believes this will be bigger than ultra petroleum, a company he started. I was right there with him. He called me up on the day and said, I started a new company, petroleum file. You can resubmit your clients. And you hung up. Well, I knew Mark well enough to do what that meant. Stock was fifty cents a share in nine years.

It was $200 a share. A $10,000 investment turned to more than $11 million in nine years. Ultra petroleum, that was Mark’s first big, big deal. He’s had other sense. He believes, and his team believe this is the lost soldier will be bigger than Ultra. I think they’re right. He was saying this, by the way, before they drilled the first well, just based on the seismic, seismic work and what’s around them. Again, 39,000 acres of virgin land surrounded by production.

Never been. Well, this used to be a uranium mine, uranium field or whatever. And BLM wouldn’t agree, wouldn’t it? Wouldn’t let any drilling take place. Well, these guys, whose lost soldiers, really. The geologist, Mike Pinel, they found it. They’ve worked in this 44 years, but 44 years, it’s just an amazing story. So happy with these guys. And God bless Mike Pennell.

[00:38:33]:
I know he’s going through a tough time health wise, so, yeah, good things happen to good people. This is. This is a great story and it’s so amazing we’ve been able to participate with our VRA members. This is our deal, you know, we were invited in and it’s been a great run so far. I think this is going to be a fun play. And finally again, bitcoin. Last trade, just under 71,200. What is that? That’s seven days up 6%.

24 hours up 1.4%. Without futures again, it’d be a lot higher. All right, folks, that’s it for the day. Hope you had a great day and have a better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close. Bye.