In today's episode, we examine the fast-approaching presidential election and its potential impact on the economy and stock market. We'll cover recent weak job reports, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, and my thoughts on political dynamics and their influence on market stability. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back to the market is closed. Good Monday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA Investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Hope it was fantastic as well. Got a few things happening this week, don’t we? Tomorrow, of course, is the big day, but also the Fed meeting this week. Fed’s meeting tomorrow and Wednesday with the Fed rate cut. And it will be, there’ll be a rate cut on Wednesday of about, we expect, a quarter of a point.

I think that’s exactly what it’ll be as the Fed continues to cut rates because we just don’t have the inflation we had before. The economy is strong, yes, but that’s not a re. The jobs report, of course, on Friday was so incredibly weak. Big miss there. And manufacturing. That’s, you know, that, that’s, that’s. I think one of the, one of the themes of this election tomorrow is that that’s a bad jobs report to get before the election. And that’s something that the public pays attention to.

And, you know, I was frankly surprised that they didn’t rig that number. We’ve seen them do this with the bls, has done this consist under Biden administration where they have rigged these jobs numbers borrowed from the future. They rejiggered them. They found a way to manipulate this data and everyone knows it’s happening. They don’t even really try to defend it. Well, we just say, they’ll say, well, we have a different way of calculating the numbers and blah, blah, blah, but no one buys it. So instead of getting a really strong number that I thought they get on Friday, it was a horrible number. Instead of 115,000 or so jobs, we had only 14,000 jobs created.

[00:01:32]:
And again, a big revision for the last two months as well. Over 100,000 jobs in total. So that was interesting. Maybe it’s nothing, but look, I don’t think it’s exaggeration to call this the most important election for America in our lifetimes, which means it’s the most important week for America in our lifetimes. The other side again, I’m a lifelong independent, but I mean, that party, the Democrat Party today is just the state. I’ve said this for years, and I think more people should really be preaching this message. The Democrat Party would not exist today if it were not for the deep state, the planners that basically control the government right now. Look, we don’t even have a president.

Biden is essentially incapacitated. Who’s making decisions? Our shadow government’s making the decisions. The same people that are powering completely the Democrat Party. So that’s really, really what we’re voting against. We’re voting against these invisible leaders that we don’t know who they are running the show and making decisions for us instead of our elected officials. And the Democrat Party has been saying it was one of their taglines, democracies on the ballot. Well, they’re not wrong. It’s like they usually do.

[00:02:53]:
They project. If they accuse the other side of doing something, it means they are doing it. And they’re just the worst gaslighters ever. So they’re right. Democracy is on the ballot, just not in the way the state’s puppets are trying to make us believe that democracy is on the ballot. And I said this this morning, the level of gaslighting and projection and the complete lies from the left. Obama was out over the weekend. You may have seen this.

Obama was down over the weekend at a Biden rally or a Harris rally and was using the Charlottesville lie. They’re fine people on both sides. That’s been completely debunked. Even cnn, MSNBC had said that’s been debunked. And yet here’s Obama pulling that lie out again. It’s one of the reasons that I think Biden probably got it. Well, it was rigged in 2020, but that’s one of the reasons Biden got elected. And enough people believed that Trump was calling white clear, white supremacists, fine people, which he did not do.

[00:03:58]:
So I think that’s an act of desperation when you have to lie and you have to gaslight and project the way that this party does. Again, this is completely the deep state. When you have to do that, you’ve already lost. Now, you may find a way to rig it, but you’ve lost. You’ve lost the people. And that’s what’s happened here. You know, I know that Trump is not everybody’s cup of tea. I get it.

But the reason that so many people and he’s more popular now than ever, there is no question about it. Donald Trump is more popular today than he’s ever been. And the reason that is, is it’s not that people necessarily see him as a perfect man or someone that necessarily they would ideally pick as a president. It’s because he’s standing in the way. He’s the disruptor that actually has the courage to stand up and say, no more of this shadow government running, running us and running our country into the ground, trying to China fi America again. You know the play there, right? Take America down A dark path. Dark path, dark path economically, wide open border, etc. And eventually the system implodes on itself.

[00:05:08]:
And then that’s when they win. Because when someone’s desperate, when people are desperate, they’ll do anything. They’ll allow the government to take their rights, their future, as long as they can salvage the economy, keep job, people can keep their jobs and so parents can keep housing, putting a roof over their kids heads and feeding and clothing their kids. And that’s really what the, that’s what the MO is, that’s where they want to take this. And so Trump stands in the way of that. And I think that’s, that’s the biggest reason for his popularity today. Again, without question, he’s never been more popular than now. I saw a tweet today and I, I gotta say, I think this has some merit.

I really do. I’ve been saying that I believe, remember Biden supposedly got 85 million votes in 2020. Who believes that? Right? But even if that’s right, I think that Trump could get, I’ve been saying that I believe Trump needed to get 90 million votes to put this beyond the pale. In other words, it was just, it truly would be too big to rig. And I saw a great post today where this guy’s making the case that Trump will get 100 million votes and more than 100 million votes. And when you think about it, again, he is more popular now than ever. And look at the people who joined Team Trump. You know, look at the quality of people that have, that have been added, Democrats that have been added to his team.

[00:06:40]:
RFK junior Lifelong Democrat, Elon Musk voted for Obama. Bill Ackman obviously, Tulsi Gabbard again, another Democrat. And there’s so many more that have, that have, that have added themselves to the Trump team that I do think that if Americans turn out that I think Trump gets over 100 million votes. And I think that no one is going to accept, no one’s going to accept, even if they find a way to rig it, that somehow Kamala Harris is getting more than 100 million votes. So that remains to be seen. But I think this is a change election. I think this is going, I think this will be too big to rig. I’ll tell you what Wayne’s root said.

This comes directly from Wayne, who told this to Trump over the weekend. Wayne was at one of Trump’s big rallies in Nevada and he told Trump in a private meeting that he said, you’re going to win this by 12 points. But they Cheat so much they’ll get, they’ll probably cheat by 10 points. So you’re going to win in a 2 point popular vote and it will be electoral cause, electoral landslide. And that’s with massive rigging and cheating. So Wayne is confidently calling this a Trump win. And my call has been that, yes, Trump is going to win tomorrow. And that Americans see this as a defining event for our country, defining moment for our country.

[00:08:05]:
And this will deliver a resounding blow to the, to the deep state. And also, if you know, for our point of view, from an investing point of view and from an economic point of view, this is going to be great news for America. Trump’s going to. Trump’s going to right this ship really quickly because I’ll tell you why he’s going to. Because any of us could do that. Any of us could do that. Remove the insanity and let the American people do what they do best, right? Drive the economy, just get out of their way and close the borders. Of course, the crime rate goes down as a result of that.

There’s so many when you stop printing money the way they’ve been printing it. And again, Trump was guilty of that too, by the way, but he did have at least had an excuse. It’s called Covid, right, the pandemic. When you stop printing money to the level we are now, guess what? Inflation falls. Because that, of course, is the only reason that you have inflation to begin with. So I think that anyone that’s saying, and I see a lot of these people out there saying that you can’t elect Trump, the economy is going to go into a tailspin, we’re going to have mass inflation again because that’s what tariffs do. There is no evidence to that. What we know is when Trump puts his mind to something economically, financially, he tends to win.

[00:09:22]:
And we saw that again in his first term. So I think to the folks out there that are saying that it would be a bad four years should Trump win, I think you’re exactly wrong. I think they couldn’t be more wrong. And I believe that we’re going to wake up a Wednesday morning and we’re going to see a stock market that’s sharply higher and an economy that’s ready to really accelerate from an already very attractive level. So I think tomorrow America’s wins. And again, I’m the eternal optimist. Our best days always lie directly ahead, but I think they really will after the election tomorrow. You may have seen this as well.

I’ll cover this, then we’ll get Some other things about the markets today. The number one forecaster, that most accurate pollster, I should say, in 2020, goes by the name of Atlas Intel. And they’re out with their final polling data. And what it shows that really stands out is that Trump is leading in all seven swing states. Every, all seven. Now, most of these margins are actually pretty wide. So Georgia, for example, two and a half points. North Carolina, 3.4 points.

[00:10:34]:
Arizona, six and a half points. Nevada, five and a half points. Wisconsin, which is, I believe has gone Democrat the last two presidential elections. Trump, they say he’s got a lead of 1 point. Pennsylvania, the biggie, of course, 1.8 points. And so they also have Trump leading nationally by about two points. So again, for the popular vote, that, that would be quite, quite an accomplishment. And that’s the kind of groundswell election that I believe that this is.

Dan Jones was on CNN today. It’s about Pennsylvania and really interesting segment. Van Jones, you know, big time Democrat, but he also isn’t, he tends to be more honest than most of these propaganda star that are on cnn. And he said today, this afternoon that he’s nervous about Pennsylvania and about, about, about Trump winning there. And he said here’s the primary reason. In 2020, Biden won Pennsylvania, but I think it was 60 or 80,000 votes. But he said one of the big reasons that he won Pennsylvania is that Biden got 70% of the Jewish vote. He had 70% to 30% for Trump in 2020.

Well, now all the polling is showing it’s split. It’s 50, 50. That difference is 80,000 Jewish votes. That’s the difference. And think about who Kamala Harris could have made her VP could have been Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania. So that alone could swing it. And so many people are saying that if Trump wins Pennsylvania, that’s it. That’s the big one, right? I don’t think it’s going to come down to that.

[00:12:12]:
I do, I believe it’s going to be a broader victory. But again, with these rig jobs they do, you just don’t know. So again, we got to get, it truly has to be too big to rig if you haven’t voted, you got to do three things, in my opinion. You got to do three things. You gotta vote, obviously, even if you think it’s rigged, it doesn’t matter. You still gotta vote. This is the one you really have to, this is the last election, I think that will have an honest chance to get back, get to take the office back and to make real lasting change. In America.

And number two, you gotta pray. And number three, you gotta visualize Trump winning. I believe visualization absolutely works. What you think about, you bring about. I think it’s a difference maker for those that have had massive success. I’m still working on it. It’s a different kind of a thing when you approach what you’re doing with a vision of having already accomplished it. And it’s a battle.

[00:13:07]:
It’s one for me, I can promise you. But I think those few things. Vote, pray, and visualize the outcome that you want to see. And again, you’re hearing this from a lifelong independent. I voted for Democrats often throughout my lifetime. My first vote was in 1980. It was for Jimmy Carter. Turned out to be a mistake.

But I was 18. What did I know, right? I did make that mistake again in 1984 when. When Reagan was up for a reelection, of course, which he won in a landslide. But the point being, this is just not a Democrat party that I can support. These are insane policies that they stand for. I think most people recognize this. I don’t understand. I seriously don’t get people that can vote for.

[00:13:58]:
I know the abortion issue is the big deal, but think about this. Think about this. People that are voting, and I understand women. I do understand this issue, okay? I’m pro life, but I’m not hardcore about it. That’s just me. But I understand. If I was a woman, I would not want a bunch of men telling me what to do with my body. I would not.

I would take. I would be. I’d be offended by that. If the roles were reversed, I believe men would be okay. But. But think about this point of view. They’re voting for Harris on. It’s a single issue election for many people.

It’s about abortion. Okay, well, what’s going to happen? What’s going to change if she wins? Explain to me how the abortion issue is going to change at all. Because she’s not going to get. She’s almost certainly not going to get a clean sweep, which it would take, right, for her to make broad changes. The Supreme Court’s already ruled on this. Roe v. Wade is no longer the law of the land. What’s going to make that change? Now, again, I understand the argument about stacking the Supreme Court and doing what? The filibuster.

But you got to first hold the Senate and the House to make those kinds of changes. By the way, I see reliable information that points to the Senate going into Republican hands. This is not a strong election for Democrats with the Senate Way too many seats up in very weak areas for them like John Tester in Montana. So I think Republicans are going to take the Senate. They have a two seat minority now. And I believe that Republicans, I think it’s going to, I do think it’s going to be a clean sweep. But even if she wins, they’re not going to be able to make these kind of broad changes. So the question is you’re voting for abortion to come back in Roe v.

[00:15:48]:
Wade to be the law of the land again. Explain to me how that’s going to happen. I don’t know how that’s going to happen. It’s not going to happen right the way it’s done now with states regulating this and that’s the way it should be. This is the way the founding fathers drew it up. They states to have more power than the federal government to vote and decide on issues exactly like this. What’s happened is the right thing. Again, I get the other side, but not to the point that you throw away everything else that’s happening in this country.

And my wife and I had this conversation this morning as a Cindy, because you know, again, she’s like, I have a lot of friends that are just very upset about the abortion changes and this is a single issue election for them and I don’t know how they’re going to vote, but I know it’s something they’re upset about. So my question was this. What are these women more upset about? What are they more worried about? Is it abortion or is it crime? Is it the safety of their family and their children as mama bears? Is it the safety of their family with these open border policies, right. And unregulated crime that’s happening certainly in blue states and spreading. Is it that or is it abortion? Oh, she said without question. Without question, Kip. It’s about crime. It’s about safety.

It’s about the crime issue. So my wife believes. And she’s got great instincts by the way. She gets these elections right all the time. I listen to her on this stuff constantly. And she said no, this, this is safety and crime is a bigger issue for women, especially moms, parents, than it is for the abortion issue. I think that that feels right to me. By the way, if you’re wondering who does she think is going to win this, she’s, she’s not giving me a final answer yet.

[00:17:34]:
And that kind of bothers me. That kind of bothers me. Her mom also has great instincts. We were at dinner the other night, her mom said the same thing. She doesn’t know, Patricia doesn’t know, Cindy doesn’t know. They, of course want Trump to win, but they haven’t given me a final answer yet. And maybe, maybe I’m wrong. Maybe it’s going to be that close.

And I think the rigged job, of course, is what so many are concerned about. All right, let’s, let’s move on just a little bit here. I’ll also repeat the case that we’ve been making now for I think about a month, that even if Trump loses, and now we’re talking more about the markets, right? Even if Trump loses, as long as Dems don’t have a clean tweet, we’re going to have gridlock in D.C. and that gridlock will prevent the left from installing their democracy destroying communistic plans that at least for the time being. Okay, again, once they’re in office, executive orders can get put into place. But again, the court systems act on those big single issues pretty quickly. And so, you know, again, you can’t have major legal changes to the law in this country by executive order just around the fringes. So you can’t have major change.

Although he certainly did with the open border, didn’t he? There’s some loopholes there that have been allowed to remain in place. Again, I have other issues there. Like why didn’t Greg Abbott step up and stop this sooner? He had the power to. It would have been a legal fight with the federal government. So what I mean, you got to draw the line that this insanity taking place anyway. So I think that as long as there’s not a clean sweep, here’s what we say for the markets. If she wins, then our view remains that we will remain in a major bull market. We will remain in the roaring 2000s because the innovation revolution and our five big bribe megatrends will continue to propel the markets higher and the economy higher.

[00:19:31]:
And again, this rem our call, financial engineering, corporate earnings growth and expansion, this long term housing boom, millennial generation. Again, this is not talked about enough by the media. We highlighted each of these in our book, the Big Bribe folks. We have 72 million millennials now, the largest segment of the population, right. That are they’re inheriting 70 million millennials, inheriting more than more than $72 million $72 trillion. That process is already underway. And what’s interesting about that, again, millennials have had a bad reputation that is not deserved. Okay.

That look at the, at the broad age group, Millennials now up to 44 years old. So come on, let’s let’s stop saying they live in their parents basement. That’s horrible. Okay, that’s, that’s almost, that’s. It should be almost illegal to say that millennials are bums, okay? Because it just ain’t true. They are smart, right? They’re born into the technology age. They get it. It’s just in their DNA.

They’re born entrepreneurs as well. They love real estate, they love housing. They love the stock market, they love cryptocurrencies. The millennials are driving everything. Look at the housing market. Millennials are driving everything. And that is early. And the baby boomers did it for a long time and that propelled this country for a long time.

[00:20:52]:
Well, the millennials, I believe are going to make it even more, could be even more powerful and impacting than the baby boom generation. Again, this is not talked about nearly enough. And then finally, the animal spirits. Look, even under Biden, animal spirits have returned. We’ve said for a long time, again, one of our big five megatrends, that the red pilling of America is also a major driver of change in this country. Look around you. I think that’s why this is going to be a change election. I think that’s why Trump may get a hundred million votes, as crazy as that sounds, but I think at least 90 million votes and that probably the Senate and the House also go Republican.

You know, I remember in 2022 talking about a red wave and of course that did not happen. So again, we all have to vote to do our part and then we have to trust the process, I guess, right? And trust that the attorneys are on the good guy side, are battling the bad guy side. And that’s just, that’s how it plays out. Oh, before I forget, I’m going to be on Fox Business tomorrow. They asked me a week ago if I, I would clear my schedule to be on during election Day. So I’m looking forward to that. I’m going to make my case with Charles Payne tomorrow why everyone should vote Trump and what the outcome of that election is going to be. I’ll tell you straight up, one of the points I’m going to make, the average 401k size of 401k is about 134,000.

Okay, make a note here. 134,000 across all age groups is the size of the average 401k. Based on our work in just year one, that 134,000 will grow to $175,000 just in year one of the Trump presidency because of the results of the stock market, which are going to boom. Okay. And instead of a Harris administration where I think that 134, it’s going to shrink to 105. So there are a lot of examples like that. I’ll try to get into some of those tomorrow with Charles at 2:00 Eastern Standard time. So hope you can, hope you can join us there.

[00:22:59]:
All right, let’s, let’s get right to the internals now. Weird. This is a weird day, I gotta say. Weird day. There are some things here I don’t like. Okay. Tom and I just had a pre podcast meeting. There’s some things I’m seeing that I don’t like that are happening in the markets as it pertains to the election tomorrow.

I’m just gonna tell you because that’s what we believe in this. You know, we’re not, we’re not going to give you propaganda here. We want to tell you straight up, here’s what’s weird. First of all, some things have been happening in the last couple, three weeks that bother us. Like the markets have been sliding. Okay. Some of the Trump trades that were so strong from like early September to mid October, those are reversing like now interest rates, you know, after the Fed rate cut, interest rates were going up. Well, now they’re sliding back down their €10 back down today.

That’s more recent. But again the, the argument for rising rates is a Trump presidency. That’s a Trump trade because the economy will be so much stronger under Trump than it would be under Harris. That’s why they say rates have been rising. Well, they kind of reversed here. That’s number one. Number two, bitcoin. Right.

Bitcoin was just almost at all time highs three, four days ago. It’s just under 73, 400. Well now it’s, it dropped below 67,000 today. And again, that’s an important support level. It’s backed over it now. Last trade is 67,600. So it’s reversed back above that. But Trump’s is going to be the bitcoin president.

[00:24:30]:
He’s been calling himself that. He’s got the bitcoin community behind him, of course. So why is bitcoin getting weak? That’s another concern. Why is Tesla weak? I think that of all the stocks out there, if there’s one Hallmark stock, one Hallmark company that would benefit from a Trump presidency because Elon Musk is buddied up to him, he’s likely going to play a role in his administration. I think that’s got to Bode well for Tesla. Tesla Post earnings, their share price over the last couple of weeks has been falling. We hit a high of 273 and now it’s down to 242. So why is that happening? It’s down but down now six days in a row.

Again the broad market has been sliding and then finally djt Donald Trump media had been a rocket ship ride. Went from below. I think I saw it down to, what was it down to like 12:13. Went up to the, to the low mid-50s. Well it dropped all the way back below 30. Now it did close back up today to $34 a share. But again that’s another Trump trade moniker that it’s going in the direction you don’t want it to go. I just wanted to cover that with you.

And you know, maybe it’s just short term anxiety but this is, these are, this is not the way you want these trades to go. Also as far as today goes, weird day all around. For example, the Dow Jones today was down 250 points down 6.10of a percent. Let me cover that now NASDAQ down 3 10. The only index up today was just 2000 to 410 1%. So basically it was not a great deal. Not horrible, but not a great day today. So why was the put call ratio, why did it close at a 1.3? It was well above 1 all day today.

[00:26:13]:
That, that does the fix today. The volatility index was flat on the day while the pickle put call ratio was highly elevated. These are the kind of put call readings that you typically see when the market’s ready to reverse in the other direction. In other words, go higher. So why was the put call ratio so high? Why was the VIX flat? That’s just strange to see. And then this, the fear and greed index is down to a 43. Back into fear territory. So again that’s that confirms the market’s fly we just talked about.

And then there’s this, and this is maybe, maybe the strange to haul again weekday. But why were the internals positive across the board? Both NYSE and Nasdaq they weren’t hugely positive but NYC and NASDAQ both had positive readings for advanced decline. NASDAQ on volume. Nasdaq had 700 more million more shares advancing then declining as in dollars worth solid gains there. Also NYSE volume was positive by about $300 million worth of trading. The only negative was 52 highs to lows but that was just by a handful of issues. So again, just a strange day there’s not. The correlations that normally hold up are not holding up.

So again, just want to point that out to you. I don’t know what to make of frankly, don’t know what it means but I think the internals being strong, that’s a tell. The semiconductors today were slightly higher today. SMH and semi etf. Just quick. Well, it’s down a quarter of a point now, but it did close. It closed. That’s aftermarket.

[00:27:49]:
It did close slightly higher in the day and again we are bullish, especially with the Trump win. All right, let’s take a look at the sector watch today. Again, not pretty here, not horrible, but not pretty. How about that? We had four sectors finished higher, seven finished lower. Nothing much either way, frankly. Energy was up big today on rumors of Iran through their proxies attacking Israel. Again, we saw some reports about that possibility this afternoon. Energy stocks were up 1.8% today to the downside.

Utilities down 1.2%. Again, nothing huge either way. But again seven sectors lower, four finished higher. And a commodity watch, pretty quiet here. Gold today down 330, announced 27.45 again not far from all time highs at all. Silver down 9 cents announced at 3258. Copper up 5 pennies at 443 a pound. Crude oil then again on the the rumors of Iran.

Iranian proxies attacking Israel. Crude oil rally today up 3.2% at 7172. And again that’s another, that’s another counter Trump trade, isn’t it? Because oil has been going down in part because drill, baby, drill. Trump’s going to have so much drilling going on. The supply, you know, is going to overwhelm demand possibly. And that’s one of the reasons oil prices and falling, well, that’s that. That’s reversed today. Again, just seeing some things here that frankly you’d rather not see on a day before the election.

And again just pointing that out. The markets tend to be smarter than all of us. So there you go. And finally of the day, bitcoin again, rallying now from Those lows below 67,000 back to 67,800 as I speak. All right, folks, hey, get out and vote if you haven’t already. Big day tomorrow. And let’s look, the good guys are going to win this, right? Our best days are ahead of us. That’s what’s going to happen.

It’s going to be a celebration tomorrow after the election. I am confident of that. Believe that every fiber of my DNA. All right. Folks have a great day. Always appreciate you listening. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.