Podcast

VRA Investing Podcast: The Art of Contrarian Investing and Ignoring Mainstream Media Hype – Kip Herriage – January 08, 2024

It was an intense session for the stock market today that saw all of our major indexes finish higher. Tune into today's podcast as Kip discusses the seismic shifts in politics that could shape our portfolios, the semiconductors ou ...

Posted On January 08, 2024Episode 1305
Share:

Listen On

About This Episode

It was an intense session for the stock market today that saw all of our major indexes finish higher. Tune into today's podcast as Kip discusses the seismic shifts in politics that could shape our portfolios, the semiconductors outperformance, and the bitcoin resurgence.

Transcript

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Monday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the Daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Your week went well as well. What a day today. Goodness gracious. I got to say, start this off.

[00:00:19]:
I know we have a lot of VRA members that listen each day. We appreciate you very much for doing that. Love your feedback as well. We also have a lot of nonmembers that listen in. And again, just as much, we appreciate you and your feedback. We put up 50% returns last year, right? 50.26 was the exact return for last year. We beat every index. We beat our bogey.

Our target index is the Russell 2000. That’s our most common index based on our risk profile. And we beat that by three times. Russ 2000 is at 15%. We’re up better than three times that. Again, 50.26%. And the way this year is starting off, I wouldn’t be surprised if we beat that number this year. So the point is, come and join us.

[00:01:06]:
You get two free weeks to check us out. Most people do and don’t leave. They want to go ahead and keep paying. And we’re very fortunate that we have members that have been with us since we started the VRA in 2003, a whole lot of folks that have been here over a decade. And again, we are very proud of that, and we never take it for granted. And we work very hard to try to continue to earn your trust and your faith. We’re honest. We’re direct.

We don’t color between the lines here. If it’s about the markets, about geopolitics, about investing, if it’s about politics, about elections, or about bullshit pandemics where they lie to us and force us to take poison death jabs, we go there, we go everywhere, and we get banned for it as well. Been banned on Twitter for nine months for doing just that. I think we’re still banned on YouTube for daring to talk about Donald Trump. What else? We’ve been kicked off medium again, we don’t self censor. That’s really a difference here. And I want to say, and we have a lot to cover today, so I’ll just make this last comment. Shout out to Charles Payne.

[00:02:24]:
Charles Payne knows I don’t self censor. He and I have been Twitter buddies for a long time. He finally started asking me to come on the show last year. I think I’ve been on now ten or 1112 times over the last year or so. And he knows I don’t self censor. He follows me on Twitter. Okay. If it’s a topic that we believe in, something I believe in because I do the research, do the due diligence, I only then begin to talk about it.

This is why, folks, I don’t get many stories wrong. We get the big stories right now, we miss on investments all the time. Not all the time, but we do miss, like everybody else knows, perfect. But on the big stories. So we put time and thought into, because it’s important, if you get the big stories, like the big calls, right? Like market direction, what the hot sectors are, where we should be invested, beating the markets. We’ve done that 17 out of 20 years to start in the VRA. That’s what matters. Hats off to Charles Payne for having me on, knowing that, again, I won’t self censor.

[00:03:32]:
And so this is what we stay true to here. It’s not everybody’s cup of tea. Totally get it. We’ve lost a lot of members that just wanted nothing to do with it because of the various talks we cover. Understand that as well. The point is, we are not going to change. And I think that’s we want to attract members like us that do their homework, do their due diligence. Again, everyone can have their own opinion.

Right?

Well, we’re not afraid to share ours. So we’ve been telling you this is a brand new bull market of size and scope. We’ve said it from the October 13 lows of 2022 and been calling this the roaring 2020s. We’ve nailed all of these major calls in our book, the Big Bribe, which I know most of you listening have read this by now. We talk about the five megatrends that are powering the roaring 2020s from an investment point of view and an economic point of view. Because as everybody said, there was going to be a recession last year. We didn’t. We told you, stay invested.

[00:04:32]:
If we have a recession, it’s going to be mild. We didn’t even expect we’d have that. We didn’t. Of course. Instead, what? We have 5% gdp growth in the third quarter, right? So I know a lot of people now are talking about. Okay, wait a minute, Kip. We had a Santa Claus rally. Was negative the first five days of the new year.

Negative. Wait, that doesn’t bode well for the don’t. I will say this. Analytics are important, and they’ve held up better over the last year than any point in my career. But that’s just one part of the picture. And I’m sorry, but Santa Claus rally and the first five trading days of the year, those are not something that I spend much time worrying about losing sleepover. Right. What’s more important is the market action, because it’s not the news that matters.

[00:05:23]:
It’s the market’s reaction to that news. And we saw that again today, did we not? Todd and I were just having this for a pre podcast meeting. You wake up this morning and what’s going on? Boeing. Boeing has doors falling off of their planes and they’re having to ground planes. My goodness.

What?

You can’t screw in a door. That’s a little frightening. Again, we know these airlines are having a hard time keeping pilots because of the poison jabs. I guess they’re having a hard time keeping flight mechanics. Aircraft mechanics too.

Right?

Goodness gracious. So Boeing was down 9% overnight. Wake up this morning. Futures down a couple of hundred points on the Dow Jones. As Tyler pointed out. Yeah, Nasdaq was in much better shape. SPF hundred is in much better shape as well. Still, you wake up and you go to bed, futures are flat.

[00:06:17]:
You wake up down 200, you’re like, okay, wait a minute. Maybe there’s something to this Santa Claus rally. But anyway, right at the open, here came the buyers. Okay, if you read our letter this morning, we told you that again. We hit extreme war bottom. Steroids. We were up for nine weeks in a row. All right? This has been an amazing bull market run.

It’s parabolic. This is the very definition of a parabolic melt up. And so we traded the extreme levels going into the end of the year, beginning of the year. And so again, at some point you’re going to have a shakeout. Well, guess what? We’ve had it. We shared this info this morning with you in our letter. We hit extreme revolt on steroids. And then like textbook bull market action, we had a pullback.

[00:07:04]:
All of our overbought momentum oscillators in the VR investing system, they’ve all corrected now. Those readings are done. We’re oversold now we’ve gone from extreme overbought to heavily oversold in just a matter of days. This is really textbook beautiful bull market action. And as you know, we continue to key off the semis in tech. Wrote that up again this morning. Kind of gave away a bit of our secret sauce here on how we use our buy the dip strategy. And yes, it is tied and keyed to the semis.

And I love relative strength charts. I have for a long, long time. And you look at a relative strength chart of the semis, the SP 500 because the semis lead in both directions. If you’ve been with us at all, you know this. And I’ve said many, many times, I’ll say it one more time, if you only learn one thing from listening to our podcast, at least what I’m doing them. Tyler’s much better at this than I. His facts blow mine away. I’m pretty much off the cuff here.

But if you learn one thing from me listening to these podcasts, is that the semis lead in both directions. Semis lead tech leads to broad market, but the semis lead in both directions up and down. And so the semis were a week as we ended the year, started the new year, that told us, you know what, we’re due for a little bit of shakeout. We just had that. And on Friday, all of a sudden, boom, here came the semis, right? And now semis today, up 3.3%. The relative stream chart of the semis SPF hundred is. It’s almost as if whoever is controlling the markets, assuming there is that one person, that is, this is what they’re using. You look at the chart that I shared with our members this morning.

[00:08:57]:
Every time this ratio comes, pulls back to the 100 day, and it has pulled back to the 200 day on a couple of occasions from the October 13 lows. But every time it pulls back, really between the 100 200 day moving average, again, for this relative strength ratio, that is a bottom. And so that’s been our theme from the bear market lows. We’re buying the dips, right? We don’t like buying at extreme revolt levels. That’s how you lose money. We get our positions in place. We’re position builders. And then we like to buy the dip, especially in bull markets that are only in the second inning.

Reminder again, for those that are worried about Santa Claus rally in the first five trading days a year being negative. Reminder. Since 1952, the second year of a bull market has been up 100% of the time with average gains of close to 14%. All right, so again, the economy is rock solid. We may have a mild recession. I don’t think so. We may have a mild recession. I do not think that’s going to happen this year.

[00:10:05]:
The Fed is going to cut rates two to four times, I think not beyond that because of economic strength, but rates are coming down. Fed front earnings happening. Okay, we’ve covered this ad nauseam, okay? But as long as you follow the semis, you’re going to be golden. It’s going to give you a good. Again, we’re trend followers here as well. So you get a lot of basic tools that you can use here to keep you out of trouble. And one of those is not buying. When the markets or a stock or an ETF is at extreme or bought, wait for the pullback, because guess what? They always come.

We had last, at the end of last year in parabolic, our options program. We were active there, by the way, today, adding some new positions. We had a trade, and we love small caps, and we aggressed long small caps at the end of September, I think, and just been a house of fire again. They really went parabolic, but we had a trade in a small caps IwM calls in parabolic, and I think we made 300% or something like that in it anyway. And we sold and we actually timed it pretty well. But then it went to new highs, right? And I’m like, man, I kind of wish we bought back into that. But they were still trading in. IWM was still trading in extreme overbought levels.

That’s just not how we do it. That’s not our discipline. So we waited, and guess what? We got the opportunity. We added those calls again today. Again on the charts. IWm small caps look fantastic on this pullback. Iwm. I’m kind of jumping around IWM against small russell 2000 ETF just had. This is rare. This is very rare. IWM had, at the same time, essentially two golden cross buy signals, which is golden cross is when either the 100 day, excuse me, either the 50 day or the 100 day crosses over the 200 day moving average. And IWM had that at the same time had a double golden cross on the same day. Those are rare. But at the same time, it pulled back to exactly major support levels. On our viewer investment system, which is a 21 EMA, the exponential moving average is what we use eight and 21 day.

[00:12:27]:
And then we go to the 1500 200 day. Those are the only moving averages we use. And a perfect pullback, the kind that Tyler. This is kind of Tyler’s cup of tea here. When we get a red hot market or red hot sector, Tyler likes to use these pullbacks, that first major level support either the eight or the 21 EMA. Typically, when you’ve got a red hot group, that’s where the technicians, again, the people are acting in unison, essentially, all looking at the same thing, which is why these things work, right? These repeating patterns of technical analysis work, because guess what? So many people are using exactly those same things. That’s why you use them. And that’s why technical analysis is so beneficial and useful.

Well, that’s what we had in IWM. So again, we’re back in that. This is that market, folks. We’ve been trying to tell you. This is that bull market. We are in the roaring two thousand and twenty s. I love it. I hear it all day long from people.

A lot of our members, friends of mine, certainly on Twitter, social media. How can you be bullish? Are you blind? Do you not see what’s happening? Do you not watch the news? Are you not watching the news, Kip? No, I don’t. I mean, I’m on Fox Business a couple times a month. I tend to watch that day, otherwise my tv stays off. I don’t care about any of that bullshit. Because it’s propaganda, right? Financial news is probably worse than regular watching Fox, which is unwatchable. Fox business, different story. The point being, no, I don’t base my opinions off of the media.

[00:14:13]:
No, I don’t. How do you think we get things right? We don’t watch that crap. Or if we do, we use it to our advantage. In other words, if all the networks are saying one thing, you know it’s a lie, you know it’s propaganda, you know it’s indoctrination. Do the opposite. That’s how we got Rona right. That’s how we knew by March, April of 2020 that we were being lied to on a massive level, and we started trying to warn people about, don’t take. The jabs are coming.

Trump is making a huge mistake here with our operation warp speed. We don’t need them. And no, he won’t mandate them. But guess what? The next guy will. And sure enough, look what happened, right? So, yeah, Trump has got plenty of file. He still won’t disavow these things. These poison death jabs are on the children’s immunization schedule. And this guy, the proud father of the jabs, refuses to disavow them.

That means millions of kids every year are still taking these wakes. I don’t know what’s going to take to wake Trump supporters up, folks. We have a likely global depopulation event taking place. If you’re not aware of that, then again, you’re watching mainstream media. I don’t watch that. I’m watching the truth. I’m seeing the reports of these deaths that are coming in and backs injuries and myocarditis. Look, people don’t live that long with myocarditis.

[00:15:38]:
The deaths are going to keep coming. Okay, I’ve been to six funerals in the last year.

All right.

So Wayne’s had 40 friends die, and he thinks that 90% of them are from the vaccine.

All right?

But he’s still a Trump fan. All he’s got to do is say, you know what? Disavow him. Trump should say today, these should be removed from the market. And I made a mistake. Of course, none of that’s going to happen. But again, I can’t support someone like that. Okay? This is too big of a deal. I think the truth matters.

[00:16:15]:
But anyway, I also think, by the way, in just in a couple of years, Trump will be viewed like George Bush’s views today over the wars and over 911 and the Patriot act may not be a popular call, but again, this is the homework we do. And I’m telling you, that is going to not. History was going to be brutal to Donald Trump. Brutal to Donald Trump. And I hope people wake up in time, because if he’s the nominee, Republicans, and I’m a lifelong independent, but if Trump’s the nominee, Republicans will lose the House, the Senate, and the presidency. And all our fears, all the fears that people say they have about what democrats are going to do to this country, stacking the Supreme Court, adding new justices, right. Taking this country in an entirely new direction, are going to come true. People better wake up.

It’s either Ron DeSantis, in my opinion, or this country is in real trouble because Donald Trump cannot win. It’s mathematically impossible. They already beat him once. They have the playbook, they’ll just cheat again or whatever. He’s not going to get elected. DeSantis is the guy that stood his ground. He’s done in Florida what Trump says he would have done in his first term, he never did anyway. Sure, a lot of people just hung up, but that’s okay.

[00:17:43]:
This is important. This is important stuff, right? I think we all agree on that. So the semis lead again. We are ultra aggressive on this group. And the semis today up 3.2%. Let’s get to the markets here. I do want to cover some other things this morning. The semis just rock solid state.

Nvidia, all time highs today, semis up 3% today. Our position, we own the three time leveraged ETF in the semis, as most of you know, Stocksville, which is up 9% today. And we’re up like 250% in that from the October lows. And we’re in the innovation revolution. Anything tied to AI and innovation that you can quantify, you want to own that, which is why we own the stocks that we own here, like Tesla, like Soxel, like palantir, like extract one. And this is the beginning of it again. This is going to be a long term bull market that will rival the 95 to 2000 melt up again. This is not new from us.

We said this in our book, said this for a long time now, and it’s happening. So this is the time again to stay locked in. Today was garlic strong. Garlic strong. Bowie’s news couldn’t hit the market. Even the Dow finished up 216 points. Bowie’s in the Dow. Right, Bobby, you read it.

[00:19:14]:
Bobby, you speak English? For those of you that know what I’m talking about, I know Tyler and Sam will, but even the Dow Jones finished up 200 points with Boeing in it. It’s pretty sensational, right? And Boeing finished down what six, 7% on the day, 8%. Boeing down. This is a remarkable day. Dow Jones today was our loser, but still up a half percent with Boeing in it. SPF 100 up 1.4%. Rust 2000 again. Love small caps.

What a turnaround this Saturday. 1.94% looks great on the charts. Rust 2000 still has got to rally 16, 17% to go up to all time highs. And that’s the other point people that are worried about. We had a big year last year. Can we do it again? Yeah, we can. Listen, we still haven’t hit all time highs yet. We’ve only all time highs.

In what? In the queues. I’m drawing a blank here. I know the SPF hundred is not all time high.

Right?

It’s close. Hasn’t gotten there. Dow Jones has. Rust 2000 has not. Still 16, 17% away from all time high. Nasdaq has not. So we got to get there first. My mentor, Ted Parsons, used to say, bull markets don’t start till you get to new all time highs.

I understand he’s kind of trying to make a point, and I understand that. I think it’s a pretty fair point. We’re not even at all time highs yet on these major indexes, except for a couple. Except for Dow roasted, thousands going to hit all time highs. That means it’s got to go 1670. So, anyway, great. You want to keep buying the dips. That’s the key here.

Again, Nasdaq today up 2.2. Nasdaq was up 319 points today, up 2.2%. You don’t see that a whole lot. Again, semi is up 3.3% today. So this is textbook day. Garlic strong on this Boeing news. It’s not the news that matters. It’s the market’s reaction to that news.

[00:21:14]:
That’s what matters most. Today was an important day, I believe, for the market, especially after last week. Right? What else today? Oh, Tyler shared this with me in our know, we talked about financial engineering. It’s actually in the title, right? Building wealth in the age of financial engineering. The big bribe. Financial engineering. We just, in the second half of last year, share buybacks hit an all time high. Tyler just reported that to me for the podcast today.

Share buybacks, all time high, second half of the year. This is financial engineering. Now, that’s a simple form of it, but it’s happening at all levels. It’s happening at the non governmental level, the NGO level. You can include Cisco banks in that if you want to. These big companies and institutions, right, they probably got their system just plugged into some AI, advanced AI with a computer system that cost $100 million that very few people can afford, and it’s just making decisions for them. Financial engineering. But this is now speeding up.

Everyone’s getting access to chat, GPT four. Pretty cool, by the way. Everyone’s getting access to this. We are in the innovation revolution, AI, if you want to. And there have been a lot of good work done in this area, and we like to think we’re at the forefront of it. But again, the key is it’s just getting started. Stay locked in, folks. This is going to be that bull market, probably the last great bull market of the next 20 years.

[00:22:53]:
We’re in it right now, because what follows this is probably going to be a serious shakeout, maybe debt based or war based, or who knows what based, but the shakeouts always come. But we think the roaring 2020s is going to. We think there’s a very good semblance to the roaring 1920s. Okay? We know what happened after that. And I say, people tell me that, go. Do you know what you’re saying, kev? Because what happened at the end of the 1920s, do you remember the crash happened? The great Depression? Well, yeah, of course I do. But guess what? It’s 2024, January. We still got six years.

So what are you going to do? Sit on your hands and do nothing for six years because you think we might have a stock market crash and a great depression in six years? No. This is a time to make hay.

Right?

Bitcoin, big news today, as you’ve been following probably bitcoin 47,000. It’s what I got right in front of me right now. Up 6%. Better than 6% today. Up 27, 60 today. Bitcoin getting sec approval this week has been. Everybody’s talking about it. It’s been widely reported.

It’s happening this week, Wednesday or Thursday. Approval followed by trading on Thursday or Friday. Spot bitcoin etfs.

Okay.

And there’s a lot of ways to play this. We’re actually using some of those in the VRA here. You buy, the miners, obviously, can wait. And buy bitcoin itself, you can buy now on Coinbase. There are other alternatives, bitcoin alternatives. We use that in parabolic options today. Again, some, as a trade, can buy the rumor, sell the news. I bought no one for doing that.

[00:24:35]:
But Tyler and I first bought bitcoin at $600. Then we recommended it to all our subscribers at 2000, and we sold it at 58,000. All right, so a hell of a trade, right? But now we’re salivating. We just knew that was the top. We’re salivating to get back into it. And we did last year, 28,800. We got back into it. Now we’re up almost $20,000 of bitcoin from adding it last year.

So it’s already been another great trade. So technical analysis matters. Working with people that understand these trends and how to read between the lines.

Right?

Again, ignoring the mainstream media or using their propaganda to your advantage, that is a rarely, I don’t think, talked about enough smart money strategy. If everybody is saying, go left, the one thing you want to do is go right.

Okay.

Be a contrarian, folks, especially when the media is concerned, your life will be so much better, you make much better decisions, and you won’t fall again for the bullshit they’re trying to feed you as the smart money uses you. That’s what we’ve had. This sip of negativity I talk about all the time. I’ve talked and written about this psyope negativity that’s in place now. I think, since it’s been at least a decade, I know that, and I believe it’s extremely real, and it’s definitely by design, because everyone’s so negative. How can you be so positive, Kip? Don’t you know this president? Don’t you watch the news? Don’t you see what’s going on? I’m like, yeah, but I’m not getting the results you’re talking know. Tyler covered this in his podcast Friday. Consumer net worth, all time high.

Home prices, all time high. Credit scores, all time high. One third of Americans own their home outright with no mortgage. All time high. These are all time highs. Consumer is in amazing shape now. We have two Americans. No question about that.

[00:26:33]:
But again, we’re being lied to. We’re being lied to because America should not be looked at as being represented by the homeless people in San Francisco. We’re hardworking folks. 68% of Americans own at least one home. At least one. So when you talk about home prices being an all time high, how about this one? Net equity in homes is an all time high, right? I mean, these are powerful, powerful megatrends in place. So any recession we have is going to be so incredibly mild. And the only reason people are missing this is because they’re listening to the lies and the propaganda on television.

[00:27:19]:
So again, we just don’t go down that road, which means we are contrarian. And this is, honestly, it’s why we do get so many calls, right? Because we just know when we hear it, we go, yes, that’s a lie. And then when they’re all saying it, you’re like, okay, great, let’s stick the other side. We’re going to be right. And it’s really not much more complicated, honestly, it’s not a lot more complicated than that. I’m amazed by the people that I see that are my age or older that still fall for the bullshit. It is really unbelievable. That means their whole life they’ve listened to the media and they’ve fallen for the lies, and they’ve made mistake after mistake.

I mean, didn’t Einstein say the definition of insanity is making the same mistake over and over again, expecting different result? That Einstein. I mean, this is not a difficult concept.

Right?

When everybody is saying, go left, go right. All right, so bitcoin going to get approved again. If you’re a trader, buy the rumors, sell the news, take your profits. Fine. Longer term, there is no better supply demand story on the planet. We said this has been, I’m a simple Texas boy, okay? I’m a simple Texas boy. But I can’t tell you the intricacies of bitcoin. I would never even try to learn it because I’d forget it the next day.

[00:28:37]:
What I do know is that they’re going to only have 21 million bitcoins in existence. I know they do a halving every three, four years. The next one is in April of this year.

Right?

That makes it that much more expensive and costly and time consuming to make new bitcoin.

Right?

I think they mine new bitcoin is what they call it. See, I barely know the story, but I know that the supply demand part of it, and the fact that now SEc is going to give us a blessing is going to make this real legitimate. People that own this aren’t selling it. 80% of the people that own this are not. They’re just putting it away.

Right.

They just let it sit in their wallet or whatever, or off wallet in their drive. Flash drive or whatever. Okay, so trillions of dollars is going to come into this. I read last week from a source I trust, 80% of all money managers and financial advisors say they have not purchased bitcoin, and they won’t until the SEC blesses it. What do you think is about to happen here, folks?

Right.

[00:29:41]:
Our target has been 100,000 in bitcoin. That’s been my target since we re added to your portfolio. I said it would hit 100,000 this year. I could be on the low side. This could be a parabolic move higher. That is a little crazy. But along the way, our approach is, you know what? Keep taking money out.

Right?

When you double your money, take out your capital. Now you’re playing the house money. There are very simple smart money strategies here to play volatile instruments like bitcoin, or using option strategies or small caps or whatever you love to swing for the fences with, which is what we do here. Just sell half when you double your money. It may sound simple, but it works. It works for us anyway. So, yeah, love the bitcoin story here. This is a golden time to be an investor.

[00:30:32]:
There’s never been a better time in America to have money, and a lot of people have a lot of money. Liquidity cash again, people have reduced, Americans in 15 years, have reduced their debt levels by 25%. Are you hearing this on tv? No, you’re hearing, well, credit card balances just broke $1 trillion. Who cares? That’s a number. What matters is in relationship to consumer net worth and disposable income. That’s what matters. And from a debt point of view, for the consumer to disposable income, consumers have reduced their debt by 25. I said this in Charles paint show last time I was on by 25% in 15 years.

We learned from the financial crisis. We learned we never wanted to go through that again.

Right.

[00:31:22]:
And our kids learned, this is why millennials are so badass. We cover this in the book. It’s one of our megatrends again, 70 million strong. They’re inheriting over $70 trillion, largest segment of the population. And they are born entrepreneurs. They’re smart. They can figure anything out. They can answer anything in about 2 seconds.

Right?

[00:31:43]:
They’re born into the Internet. It’s in their dna. Wow. They love housing. They love stocks. They love cryptocurrencies. Folks, this is what’s happening. This is where the liquidity is going to keep going.

Right.

And so this is a very special time to be an American. Really dead sad money, period. I’m not saying you got to be rich, but it’s a very special time to be able to have some money and an open mind and again, to be able to continue to block out the propaganda and the lies the perma bears. Block all that out. And it’s not easy because it can be overwhelming. People get very anxious about the news and that kind of thing, but you just have to learn to just turn the tv off really.

Right.

And be very careful about who you let into your brain between your two ears. Got to protect that, right? Okay. I know I’m all over the map today. What else today? Oh, I covered this this morning. I want to cover this quickly because I think it is so important. There are people like Jim Bianco. I like Jim. He’s a smart guy.

[00:33:00]:
But he says that rates are going to. Tenure is going to five and a half percent. It closed at 4% today. Right down big today. No, that’s not happening. Rates aren’t going to five and a half. The highs are in for yields. Gravity has once again taken over.

[00:33:15]:
Wrote this up this morning, again, dead front running. Global disinflation and the innovation revolution. Again, innovation accomplishes one thing. What is that? It brings costs down. When you have disinflation, deflation, which China has, is exporting to the world. When you have that, rates can’t go up. They can’t go up, rates are only going to go lower. And this is, of course, very bullish for stocks.

I wrote this morning, by end of 2025, tenure yields will fall below two and a half percent and then lower still into 2030 again, the roaring 2020s. So just again, be mindful of. We make our forecast very public, right? And we make bold calls, and not that we get them, all right, but we put our necks out there and we get a lot of big calls.

Right.

If we’re wrong, we admit it. Unfortunately, a lot of people, if they’re wrong, you just never hear from them again. They don’t even explain or never apologize or anything.

I have no patience for people like that.

I want to know what someone’s thinking and want to explain why they’re thinking it. And if they’re wrong to admit it might be an apologize every now and then. Who’s that going to hurt?

Right?

Okay. We’ll go now to the internals. Good data. Very quick here, by the way, easy one, two to one. I looked at every three to one, sorry, three to one, advanced decline. Both NYC and Nasdaq. Very good data today. Volume was two to one positive.

[00:34:51]:
How easy is this? Two to one positive. NYC and Nasdaq. And we had, what is this? 170 stocks hitting a 52 week high to just about 110. Hit a new 52 week low. And our sector watch, ten of eleven sectors finish higher on the day. Again, very good day led by tech, as you want to hear, up 2.8%. The only sector lower was energy, down 1%. Everything else up big today.

And our commodity watch today. Again, I have to say the charts look great, by the way. Gold is an all time high. Okay. Miners have been leading since October, November. So taking a break right now. So much energy and so much enthusiasm of bitcoin. Yeah.

[00:35:35]:
It’s definitely impacting precious metals and miners, but I’ll make a forecast. I think gold in the miners are going to be a big tomorrow. That’s my call. I think you’re going to see this, the trade off. We’ve seen this happen, right? Where one sector is hot one day, next day is another. I think that’s going to keep happening. I’d expect the dow to be a big tomorrow, brother, by the way. I think the miners will be a big tomorrow.

That’s my call. But again, a lot of energy, a lot of money coming out of precious metals and miners into bitcoin. I can blame no one for that. When’s the last time gold was up 7% today? I mean, bitcoin up 7% today.

Gold today was down. My system is not updating.

[00:36:18]:
We’re 2034 an ounce. I think it was down like $13 an ounce today. Came back off the lows. But silver, yeah, something is wrong. I’m just going to give you final quotes right now. Silver, 23 30 announced copper, $3.82 an ounce, up slightly. Crude oil down 291 a barrel again, down almost 4% today. Now at $70 and 90.

Since the barrel has been in this trading range, pretty common trading range now. We’ve seen from the low 70s, high 60s back up to what, the 90 plus range. And finally the day again, bitcoin. We covered it often, 47,000 today. We covered it a lot. So I’ll leave it right there. All right, folks. Hey, always appreciate you listening.

Hope you have a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close by.

Podcast Newsletter

Listen On

Time Stamps

00:00 Unafraid to cover controversial topics, facing bans.
03:57 Confidently predicting the new bull market.
08:09 Semiconductors lead tech and market trends shift.
10:39 Active options program; small caps trade success.
16:15 Trump will be viewed like George Bush.
18:01 Nvidia at all-time highs, semis up.
22:53 Anticipating a serious shakeout, economic and war-based.
27:19 Rejecting mainstream media, confident in contrarian views.
30:32 Americans have more money and less debt.
35:35 Forecasting positive impact on gold and miners.

More Episodes

Episode 1334 | March 01, 2024
VRA Investing Podcast: All-Time Highs Means The Party Is Just Starting – Tyler Herriage – March 01, 2024

In today's episode, Tyler dives into the impressive stock market performance for February and the beginning of March, and what that means for our markets looking forward. He also highlights the consistent bullish trends, the potential for a roaring 2020s, and the current state of various sectors, commodities, and bitcoin.

Episode 1333 | February 29, 2024
VRA Investing Podcast: “Wave Theory” Day Taking Our Markets Higher Across The Board – Kip Herriage – February 29, 2024

In today's episode, Kip covers the "Wave Theory" and the mindset of a trader. Kip also dives into the pulse of the market and the outstanding strength of tech, with small caps leading the charge. He also covers the latest look at inflation data with PCE data coming out this morning. Tune into today's podcast to see what the VRA Investing System sees looking forward for investors.

Episode 1332 | February 28, 2024
VRA Investing Podcast: Meandering Market, But Broadening! Inflation Data, And Bitcoin’s New High – Tyler Herriage – February 28, 2024

Tune into today's podcast as Tyler reflects on the day's slow market performance, discussing the potential impact of upcoming inflation data and the latest Fed speakers' statements. He also dives into the significance of bond yields and provides insights into the cryptocurrency market, particularly focusing on Bitcoin's impressive performance.

Episode 1331 | February 27, 2024
VRA Investing Podcast: Understanding the Bullish Signals: Bitcoin, Small Caps, and Market Broadening – Kip Herriage – February 27, 2024

Tune into today's podcast as Kip dives into the latest market developments, shining a spotlight on the significant shifts in bitcoin and small caps that are driving the current market action. Kip shares insights on the bullish signs in the market, the improving market breadth and the ever-expanding opportunities in the roaring 2020s.

Episode 1330 | February 26, 2024
VRA Investing Podcast: Amazon and Uber Join Dow 30. Bitcoin Continues To Make New Highs – Tyler Herriage – February 26, 2024

While it may have seemed like a slow day on the surface, we continue to see good action under the hood of this market. Tune into today's podcast as we discuss the market action from the day, including the addition of Amazon and Uber to the Dow 30 index. We also analyze the upcoming economic data, bond yields, and global market strength.