In today's episode, we'll start by celebrating the second anniversary of the bull market's birth, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones hitting all-time highs. Kip lays out why the VRA projects that this is just the beginning of a generational move higher in the stock market, driven by our 5 "Big Bribe Megatrends." Plus, we'll spotlight the innovation revolution led by tech giants like Tesla, and the burgeoning semiconductor sector poised for substantial gains. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back to. The market is closed. Good Monday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily viewer investing podcast. Hope you had a great day today. Hope your weekend was even better. Welcome back to another set of all time highs. Today.

Got a lot of good things to talk about today. Again, happy birthday. Happy birthday to the bull market. Two years ago, technically, yesterday was the bottom of the bear, but two years ago today was the launch of the new bull market, something we said and predicted, not predicted, called. We called the bottom on that exact day. I remember doing a podcast at this time where we had the market completely capitulated. We had a 1500 point swing of the Dow Jones and it was ugly everywhere. You’d see some of the fear readings we got in investor sentiment were almost off the chart.

[00:00:55]:
The market reversed higher on a really ugly CPI report, again talking about October 13, 2022. And it just looked all the signs there was that this was a bottom, something we said was approaching at the time. And now we had just written our book, the Big bride. We just published it like a month and a half before the bottom. And so we’re like, no, there’s no way their timing is going to be this bottom. We spent a year researching and writing. Tyler and I spent a year researching and writing this book. As we got closer and closer to the capitulation because it just looks so ugly, like, okay, we either going to collapse or are we going to be right? And so when we saw that day, October 13, 2022, it just rained, clear as a bell.

We said, that’s it. That’s the low. We didn’t know at the time if that was the bear market low, but we did say that this is a classic capitulation, that all the hallmarks of an important market low. And that is, of course, is what happened. Dow Jones, excuse me, S 500 is now up. Get this exactly right. I think it’s 61. Yes.

Now after today, it’s more than this morning, 61%. So now 62% that the S 500 is up from those lows of two years ago today. So again, happy birthday to our new bull market. Just before I forget to mention this, the good news in that is this, you know, some people go, that sounds a little longer than the two. Can it keep going? No. Folks, understand this is the beginning of this bull market. The average bull market lasts five and a half years with an average gain of 181%. So we’re two years into at least a five and a half year bull market with gains that should be three times where we are.

[00:02:34]:
Now that’s why we keep saying every dip is a gift. Keep buying the dips. Because again, our five megatrends are in the big bribe. Every one of these is kicking in. Financial engineering, corporate earnings expansion. Housing boom driven by millennials and animal spirits, aka a red pilled country. Our five. I don’t know what the odds are this, but I’ve written three previous books before, and this is the first one where you actually went out and said, okay, how can we help people the most? How can we talk about this being a bull market? This generational roaring two thousand twenty s? And we’re like, we really have to get to the reasons why this is going to happen.

So that’s what we did. We have researched the mega trends, what they might look like, and that’s where we learned all this. We didn’t know that 40% of Americans own their home without a mortgage. We didn’t know. Consumer network. This is not being covered in the media. You understand this. There’s a reason for that.

It’s because there’s a well intentioned, excuse me, a well placed, poorly intentioned piop of negativity we’ve talked about here now for also a couple of years. I actually started talking about this about ten years ago because I noticed how pervasive the negativity was because it didn’t match what I was seeing, it didn’t match what our clients were seeing. But the media was nonstop, pound the table. Your life sucks, your life sucks. Your life sucks. And economy’s horrible. Economy’s horrible. It’s like, okay, what are you talking about? We know there are two Americans.

[00:04:07]:
We get that. But there’s a whole swath of Americans that are really thriving like they never had before. That’s what the data showed us two years ago. It’s gotten even stronger now. Again, consumer net worth, all time high. Net equity homes, all time high. Credit scores, all time high. One of the things that really surprised us was since the financial crisis 15 years ago, consumers have cut their debt to disposable income by 25%.

Still have companies, and this is a biggie, too. Corporate debt to market cap is at 50 year lows. These are the financial conditions that are most typically seen at the beginning, at the birth of economic expansion, not towards the end. This is just beginning. Also know this, whenever the housing market is leading, as it has, is, and has been for some time, home prices all time high. We have a big shortage of homes. The housing market could hardly be in better shape. When you hear someone go, here comes the next 2008.

Understand that you are listening to someone that has no clue what they’re talking about. Either they are a misinformation expert, or they’re just not very bright, or they’ve been paid to be part of the siop of negativity. It’s one of the three. Because housing is leading again, homeowners have never been in better shape. It is just the biggest tell that there is. So we’ve been reporting all this couple of years, and frankly, we first started doing it. We call it a lot of grief. Now not so much.

[00:05:32]:
Now we just get, hey, you know what, guys? You actually made a great call. Appreciate that. And so the pendulum has swung. And by the way, while I’m on the topic, the pendulum will swing further. We should get ready for this. It’s happening right now. The fear and green index is at 77. That’s extreme green, right.

More and more perma bears are disappearing. More and more of the investing public is becoming bullish. That is a natural. Understand this. That’s a natural part of the evolution of a bull market. That’s a natural event that should happen. But we will get to a point where it’s too bullish. And at that point, and there are certain people that we track, that I track because I know when these certain people turn bullish, that is the tell.

That’s the tell to go in the other direction. So we’ll keep you in the loop on all of this. We’ll let you know who those people are at the appropriate time. But again, in the long run, we’re just getting started. Our bull market target remains 100,000. The Dow Jones right now, we just closed above 43,000 for the first time. And our target on Nasdaq is 40,000. Right now, we’re at 18,000.

[00:06:41]:
Closed up 200 today, by the way. Close to it right now, 18,500 on the Nasdaq. Again, all time highs today in the Dow Jones and S 537 for 37. All time highs right there in that major index for the. For 2024. Yeah. Happy birthday. Happy birthday to our bull market.

May, may she live to be. I don’t know. How sweet would it be to have a bull market of about 20? Don’t we? Aren’t we owed, aren’t we owed 20 great years after the last 20 years and how shit they’ve been again, I put this in the book as well. The two decades after 911 were the worst two decades in this country’s history. There have been no two decades that have even been close to as bad as the last two decades were. So now that the polls are starting to change, have you noticed this Kamala now getting desperate. She’s behind in all the polls. Momentum is completely flipped.

Not that it ever was close again. In an honest election, Trump wins by at least, I know, at least, what do you say, at least five or 10 million votes. I think it’s probably more like 20 because this thing is so bizarrely rigged by the state that wants to control things. But now those polls are getting so out of whack, as they call it, too big to rig that Kamala has now agreed to go on Fox News. Can you believe it? Can you believe it? It’s something that Hillary wouldn’t even do, Biden wouldn’t even do. And now Kamala Harris is going on Fox News with Bret Baier Wednesday night. Now, here’s the catch. It’s Brett Bear.

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He could just as easily be on CNN as he is Fox. He does have his moments where he shows some conservatism and some America first qualities, but he can just as easily flip to being a uniparty state run pos and by the way, it was Bret Bear who called Arizona for Biden in 2020 at like 08:00 p.m. and that’s when we knew the rig was on. Didn’t. Next thing you know, the voting centers are going down almost years at the same time. They’re counting over. So there’s a flood, oh, there’s a fire or electricity’s out. We know, right? And then they come back on.

You’re like, whoop, boop there. Biden’s ahead now. Right? Anyway, we all remember that it’s too painful to, frankly, even talk about. And remember, if I’m being honest with you, but look, too big to rig, I think it’s the play. And that’s why the market’s going up. That’s why the market’s going up. Folks, this is the we’ve been talking about. Look, if you join us here, can we just be honest about something without me? Sound like I’m pat myself on the back.

It’s been a good run, right? We called the bull market on the day of. We’ve got these turns, right? We’ve been buying dips consistently. We’ve been in the right sectors and we use leveraged ETF’s. So if you’re in a, if you’re in an ET, a leveraged ETF on the wrong side of the market, you are going to get destroyed. And we haven’t. We’ve been on the right side. And so in tech, right, we’ve been on the right side now and the miners are taking off. We’ve been on the right side.

[00:09:46]:
A lot of these out of bitcoin and a couple of great trades. There we are long again now, have been since last June, bitcoin from 28,800, now 66,000. Right. I’ll talk about that more in a moment as well. But we have gotten these calls right, and that’s because we’ve been, we’ve been working to make sure we’re on the right side of this market. We’re trend followers, number one. And number two, again, I think it’s the big bribe. I think it’s the mega trends we outlined.

All five are playing out. I don’t know what the odds are that somebody would write a book and all five of their mega trends theories would all become reality. We’re just thankful that they are because that’s great news for all of us. We want to see that continue if this goes like we think it is. Again, we’ve been talking about this for the last few weeks. This is the Trump melt up. We’ve been calling this the Trump. We actually said it doesn’t matter who wins.

And that’s true from the market’s point of view. As long as we have a divided Congress, we have gridlock. In other words, it frankly doesn’t matter for the direction of the bull market. Bull market continues unless Harris wins and takes both houses with her, Senate House, both chambers. Unless Harris wins and takes both with her where they have control and they can really fication of America. Unless she wins and takes both the Senate and the House, then this bull market is going to continue because it’s a structural bull market. For all the reasons I outlined a minute ago, for all the things we’ve been talking about here, it is a structural bull market. Corporate lease will continue to rise, but we want everybody to succeed and prosper, not just big american companies or big international companies.

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Right? We want the little guys to be able to succeed. That’s a Trump presidency. So we started calling this the Trump melt up. That’s what the markets are recognizing. Folks, if you’re not long this market, this is the question again, I’ve been asking this on these podcasts now for about a month or two. If you’re not long stocks and Trump wins, what will you do the very next day? And the answer we always get from everybody is, oh my God, I’m going to go, I’m going to buy everything I can oh, really? Well, what if the market’s already got 25% by then? We’re on that track. The market is going parabolic. And again, we still got three weeks to go.

So if this is the Trump rally, the Trump part two rally, then this is going to be a very, very big move higher before and after the election. No, I do not believe we’re going to have a, by the rumor, sell the news if Trump wins event. I do think, however, if she wins, yeah, it’ll be ugly. It’ll be ugly for about three or four days, but then that would be a buying opportunity. That’s just the way I see it. But no, I think the market’s telling us this is a Trump victory. We have a red tailed America that is forcing change too big to rig all the way across. Who knows? Maybe, maybe, maybe from some point of view, it was always planned to be this way.

Because I don’t, I can’t imagine in my wildest dreams or nightmares, I cannot imagine a party that Democrat party. They’re not really, you understand? There’s not really even a Democrat party. This is the state without the state, the government, the shadow state, the shadow government, whatever you want to get, the deep state, whatever you want to call it, without them telling the Democrat party what to do, empowering the democratic through their media, through all of the levers that they have to control the propaganda arm of the country, the Democrat party would not exist. And they certainly wouldn’t have these stupid, lame breed ideas that they come out with. Things about transgenderism and talking again. They unearthed a great video from Kamala Harris, I think from a couple years ago, maybe four years. In the last five years, I’ll say that she’s talking shit about Columbus and how horrible the european invaders were that founded this country. This is insanity, right? This is not the kind of thing America first people would even dare begin to back or talk about.

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So these stupid ideas come from somewhere. What if that was all designed to red pill America? Of course, the question then becomes, red pill for what? Why do they want us all on one side? I don’t know the answer to that. But right now, it feels like we’re getting ready to enter a much better America that we’ve had the last four years as far as having to, again, deal with just insane ideas that, no, you know, women, men playing women’s sports, girls sports. Who in their right mind would ever back this? This makes zero sense, right? Trying to. Having porn in our schools and saying, that’s a good thing. Again, the, the forcing homosexuality down our throats. You know, we have a whole, it’s actually not even a month anymore, is it? I think it’s pretty much the whole year of promoting the Alphabet letters, which I’ve never memorized. And why would I? Because it’s insanity.

But again, these are the things that have pulled the country together. Crime, of course, open borders. These are the things that nobody in the right mind would ever back, but the dim party does because the state wants them to. Explain that to me. The only way this makes sense is that they are purposely trying to red pill America. I can think of a negative for that. But right now I’m focused on the positives, okay? Because the positives are that I think we’re about to have Trump back in office. And if he can just keep away from the insanity of his own insanity, if they don’t snooker him into another plan demic kind of event, then we are set up with the innovation revolution taking place.

We are set up for a really golden age of America and really for the world, because the whole world’s being red peeled. That’s what’s happening here. And I think that’s a very good thing. And we’ll keep saying it is until we find out why it’s not, if that ever happens. But maybe we just do. For 20 great years of prosperity, of success, of happiness, people raise our kids in safe environments. That’s what we’re voting for on November 5. And I think if you’re not long in this market, you’re going to have to pay a lot higher prices three weeks from now.

[00:16:07]:
And that’s what this rally is about. And that’s why we think it’s going to continue. By the way, today was also textbook day today. Semiconductors up again today. Leading again. Again. They have been leading from the August 5 lows, just not by as much as they were before. But I’ll share the chart tomorrow.

The semis s 500. They have been leading, but it’s been a gradual climb. Has it been the parabolic climb? Now we’re getting back to super leading. Okay. Semi said another 1.9% Nasdaq up nine tenths of 1%. Again, that’s, that’s textbook. Semi. Nasdaq.

Nasdaq leads to the broad market. This is called a textbook move higher. So that, those are all leaders today. Again, it was a good day. A little round, though. SPF 100 up seven tenths, 1%. Dow Jones up a half percent. Russ 2000 had been down all morning, went up, closing higher by six tenths.

[00:16:59]:
1% and again, Nasdaq up nine tenths, 1%. Good day. Even with yields heading higher now, the ten year is only 4.1%. Asked me if I care, could not care less. If you’re focused on that, you’re not focused on the big picture. That’s the little picture now that’s been dealt with. Inflation is behind us. It is behind us.

Understand this. We have disinflation now that will probably within. I don’t know exactly. I’ll say within three years. Absolutely. Within five years. We’re talking about deflation, not even disinflation. So rising rates and inflation, this is my call, are in our rearview mirror.

The market’s focused on what’s happening directly in front of us, and that’s earnings. That’s earnings growth, and that’s a strong gdp. Again, based on everything we’ve been talking about here, our five megatrends, financial engineering, corporate earnings expansion, housing boom. Millennials driving every. Millennials. This is the untold story, folks. Again, we’ll put this in the big bribe. We have 72 million millennials now, the largest segment of the population.

[00:18:02]:
They are flush. Right? They are flush. They’ve got, first of all, there 70 million, $70 trillion is being inherited by these millennials. And they’re flush with cash. They have very little debt. They are born entrepreneurs. They love investing. They love the stock market.

They love big cryptocurrencies. And they, too, are becoming red pill. So it’s about them, and they love housing, of course. And they’re driving the housing boom. And then animal spirits again, the red pilling of America. These are five mega trends that this is not a short term. Folks understand this. It’s long term.

It’s how we’re going to go so much higher on the market. It’s okay. I think I’ve covered that. Beaten that like a redheaded stepchild, as they would say. Okay. I also want to talk a little bit about. I’m going to share this in tomorrow’s letter. And we actually put on a new position in the semis today.

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Parabolic options. Remember, the semis are still 8% below all time high. We have pretty much every day now getting all time high in SPF 100, Dow Jones. Right. The semis are 8% away from all time high. That’s called a catch up move. That’s about to happen. I think it really started today.

But our favorite leveraged ETF for the semis is 41% below all time high. They had a rebalancing in Soxel. Soxl is the three time leverage ETF that we use. It had an unbelievable move. We started buying it aggressively on the bear market bottom, $7. And then it went to 70. Okay. And now it’s down to 40, just under 41.

We check my math on that. Set the high for the year. Yeah. $70.08 from seven. A thousand percent gain in two years in this leveraged ETF, well, it’s pulled all the way back. It went back to 23. Okay. Now it’s back to 41 and.

[00:19:55]:
But it’s still 42% below the all time high. Excuse me, the 50 week high of $70 a share. So I think that’s a high probability play in a bull market that’s about to be led by tech, again, in a very demonstrative way because tech earnings are about to start coming out. We’ve had, bank earnings have already started. They’re beating, we’ve had 41 companies are reporting this week for the third quarter earnings. Other companies that have reported so far, we’re beating earnings by 5% on the bottom line. Okay. That’s a big beat.

And we think it’s going to continue. We think it’s going to be an excellent quarter. The earnings of 2025, especially if Trump is president, are going to be out of this world. Remember, the markets discount the future. That’s why they’re going up now, because they know what’s about to happen in Trump part two. Remember what happened in 2016 when Trump won? Well, get ready for it again. But he’s got to win first. That is the key.

Can’t get cocky, folks. Way too soon to be doing that. All right, let’s move on to the internals. It’s good. Not a great day here. The internals were, remember the Dow Jones up and down 100 points. So had a little bit of catch up going on there, too. Good numbers for both NYC and Nasdaq.

[00:21:14]:
One and a half to one. Advanced decline again, good. Not great volume today. Better volume for Nasdaq, 69% positive. That’s very strong. Dow Jones, Nyse positive by a 58% volume. And then we also had, as Tyler pointed out, this is a, this is a good reading here. We had 574 companies hit a new 52 week high to just 106.

Hit a new 52 week low that we have not had a negative number in new 52 week high lows from the August 5 lows. And that’s important because last year we almost never had positives yet the market went up. It was, it was a very, very weird time. It also told you the underlying strength that even without great internals the market kept plowing ahead intersected watch. Excellent here as well. Ten of eleven sectors finished high on the day, led the upside by, you guessed it, technology up 1.4%, utilities up 1.3. Of course, the electrification of America is the story there. That plus a little bit of lower rates are coming, utilities of the large borrowers of capital in the country.

And so when borrowing costs lessen, that impacts the bottom line. But this really is more of a story about the electrification of America. What’s going to take to build out for the data centers to power AI? This is a very real thing and it’s very exciting because it’s not just about traditional electrification and what that means for natural gas and oil as well, but just for a different area. But natural gas for utilities, of course, that’s where most of it comes from. But technology is getting much better with solar. That is, that is going to play an important role in the future. Wind power, we could live it out. We could do.

[00:22:51]:
I think we take, they’re hideous, geared to them all, and I just don’t see that technology improving enough to make it work. Most of these are powered by diesel anyway. It’s crazy. And they just are bird killers, they’re eyesores, they’re bird killers and they should not exist. But nuclear, that’s the up and comer. That’s with solar and natural gas. Nuclear is where the real story is here. And so again, utilities are going to have to be essentially rebuilt.

Refurbished, whatever. I’m not an expert in that area, but I think, I think that is why these stocks have been so hot. So again, a good day here in sector watch as well in our commodity watch. Liberty, give back today again, we told you what was it three weeks ago that the gold and the miners had hit either extremely robot or heavily bought. And we have paused our buying. We started that again on Thursday. We saw good days Thursday and Friday. Today, gold gave a little bit back again.

I think pretty much every difference is going to be a buy. Gold down $10 an ounce today at 26.65. That’s very near all time highs, by the way. Silver down $0.36 an ounce at 31.39. Copper down nine cents a pound at four hundred forty a pound. I crude oil giving back some of the games from last week, likely just a geopolitical thing. Maybe there’s not going to be all that war in the Middle east. That’s very good for all of us.

[00:24:14]:
Crude oil today though, down three and a half dollars a barrel at $72 a barrel. And finally today, bitcoin. I’m going to talk about this just for a moment, because if you know us at all, you know that we’ve been long term fans of bitcoin. If you’re new here, well, I’m going to give you a little bit of a history lesson on the VRA. Todd and I first recommended bitcoin in 2017 at 2000. We actually first bought it. We both bought together at $600 of bitcoin. We then, you know, that’s what you do if you buy something, you’re forced to learn about it.

And that’s frankly why we bought it and it did. You know, when you put your wallet in something, your heart becomes in it as well. So I always recommend that to people, just start small, start, put $10 in an investment, but it forces you to now have an interest in that area, whatever that may be, right? It’s a great way to teach yourself, put a little money into something and then you will learn about it. Trust me when I tell you that is how it works. So we did that with bitcoin at 600, recommended it charged subscribers at $2,000. Then we sold in 2021 at 58,000 of bitcoin. Very nice gains there. And then we took, what was it, two years? We bought again in June of last year.

So we’re out of bitcoin for two years as just declined, declined, decline, decline. I, and then we recommended it 28,800 last June. And so now, you know, again, we’re sitting on very good gains. Bitcoin’s back to just under 66,000. Now it’s up about 6%. On the day, it did top 66,000 intraday here. The intraday high was actually 6264. But look, a lot of success in bitcoin from a market timing point of view has come from being able to understand how these halvings work.

[00:26:00]:
And so, you know, we knew the having was coming up. Of course, we had that earlier this year. It’s now been about seven months since that having. And this is seasonality speaking post having. This is when the moves start to happen. And that’s why we just haven’t cared about the volatility. We can continue to use monthly dollar cost averaging to add to our bitcoin, just like we do with gold. And following the first bitcoin halving, which is 2012, bitcoin rose 7900% in one year.

Okay. It’s still new, though. You know, strange things can happen in one year. How did it do in the second halving? Well, in 2016, bitcoin had a second having, and in 18 months, it rose 2900%. So you made 29 times your money. All right. And then the last having, of course, was 2020, before this most recent one. We don’t quite have the data yet.

We are up from the 2024 halving. But in the first 18 months of the 2020 halving, bitcoin rose 700%. Folks, these are all gains in either one year or in 18 months. And again, we just had the fourth halving back this year in January. So now we’re all, this is seasonality speaking. This is, analytically speaking, this is the time to own bitcoin. Our year end target remains 100,000 in our two to four year timeframe target cycle. It’s a cycle high is 250,000 on bitcoin.

[00:27:27]:
So just, again, buy a little bit. And if you don’t like bitcoin, you can buy the blackrock one. This is the most popular, or you can buy the one we’re recommending, which is the Cathie woods. We like Cathy woods. We like the Cathy woods etf, bitcoin eTf, which is arkb. And again, they track each other. They track bitcoin. So it’s essentially the same.

The cost might be a little different, but not enough to get our attention. We’re just big. We’re long term fans of Cathie Wood because she’s been exactly right, in our opinion, about the long term GDP growth and where we’re headed as an economy innovation revolution. We coded that. That’s what we’ve named it. Others call the AI revolution or what have you, but Kathie woods and her team had said that they believe in the next 20 years, we’re going to have GDP growth of five to 10% plus a year. It’s just insane. And they’ve done great work in that area, really been poop poop a lot of people.

But now you look what’s happening in the market. Now you look at the fact that the largest tech companies in America have reinvested already close to $200 billion back into their own companies. Why would they do that? I don’t know. Maybe they make a lot of money for themselves. You think that’s why they did it? So the growth that’s going to come on the back end of this is going to be astronomical. And if you watch Tesla, if you watch their robocab or their robo taxi event on Thursday night, the stock got hit immediately after. I don’t care. I bought more, actually, right now, the stocks at 219.

[00:29:08]:
Kathy Wood’s team, they’re also all over this. But again, talk about a company that’s going to be benefited by the innovation revolution with everything they have going on with robotics, of course, that’s their optimist robot, which they had at the unveiling of the robo taxi. And then what they’re doing in AI, of course, what they’re doing in energy battery research, energy storage. Everyone knows the EV story. I mean, you’re looking at a company that’s got five divisions that each at one point in the next five to seven to ten years, will have a trillion dollar valuation on their own. And the entire market cap. A big of Tesla right now is like $750 billion. So there is no company that better represents the innovation revolution than Tesla as it goes down.

Buy More. You’ll be very thankful that you did in the future that we always like to give out some freebies here as well. If you want to see what we’re doing every day and come see our entire portfolio, including all our trades going back a full decade. We’re the only publisher, financial publisher, that does this, that we know of. Every trade listed going back a decade, along with results, go to vrainsider.com. you can sign up for two free weeks. Get everything we have for two free weeks. Check it out, see if it’s right for you.

All right, folks, that’s it for the day. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.