In today's episode, Tyler dives into an action-packed day of stock market action that ended with Nvidia's earnings report; he also provides a screen share of a few of the latest charts to watch. He will also take a look at key economic data and break down the impact of recent bond yield movements. Tune in daily for the latest market insights.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Wednesday afternoon, everyone. Tyler Herriage here with you for today’s VRA Investing podcast. Hope you all had a great day out there today.

It was certainly another eventful day for our markets as as have most days been since Trump was reelected in November. Really, not even just since the inauguration of January 20th. But exciting news after the close as well here with Nvidia earnings coming in. So we’re gonna do a little bit different of a podcast here today, testing out some new systems here like I mentioned on Monday.

So we’re gonna share a few charts in here as well. You know, we’ll continue to evolve this and do more screen sharing, chart analysis or, you know, even looking at articles, whatever it may be, that’s relevant in that day’s action. So if you see something in here that you like, let us know. If you see something in here you want to add as well, let us know. So looking forward to, you know, taking the next step of this journey here with you as well. So I’ve got some new software here, so bear with me if there’s a few bugs or glitches here along the way. But again, you know, maybe not the perfect day out there today. We didn’t finish at our highs of the day, but we did get a nice smart money hour to finish well off the lows that we saw this afternoon.

[00:01:35]:
And we did manage to still finish positive for the NASDAQ with the semis leading the way. That’s exactly what you want to see. So, you know, good day there. But all eyes all day were on Nvidia and their earnings after the close here today. Going into the close, after the close, they’re up 3.6% today. So good move here during the session from Nvidia. And then after the close, reporting a beat on revenue with 39.3 billion versus estimates for just 38 billion. So coming in $1.3 billion billion dollars over estimates.

Also beating on earnings per share as well. The Stock is up 1 1/2% in after hours trading. Good to see. Now we want to see some follow through into tomorrow. As you’ll see a few charts that I lay out here today, we have begun to hit oversold levels which remember just at the end of last week, we were at short term overbought levels. So looking at this from a VRA investing system point of view, you know, this is when we’re looking at positions here and we think it could be likely that the bottom is in from here. We’re looking for a big move higher. Remember, sentiment has been extremely fearful as of late as well.

[00:02:56]:
I’ll get to that here more in a minute as well. But now all eyes will be on Friday’s economic data, the PCE data, the latest look at inflation that the Fed says that P PCE is their favorite look at inflation as I talked about on Monday’s podcast as well. You know, we continue to look for further disinflation. Could it be a little sticky? Yes, but that doesn’t mean it’s going back to 9%. Just going to have a little bit, maybe take a little longer than some people thought to get back down to the Fed’s 2% target. You know, we’ll see from here, but we’ll discuss yields here today as well. So let’s go ahead and jump in to our market action on the day to day again. Got a few screens here for you.

So let’s switch it over. Take a Look here again. Nvidia as I mentioned, up 1.6% in after hours trading. But we’ll start with our leader on the day which was the Nasdaq. So here we’ve got stock charts, one of our favorite charting services here. You know we use a bunch of different services for research. This was developed by a legendary technician named John Murphy. I believe I’ve got.

[00:04:05]:
Yep. His book on technical analysis over there. And let me tell you, compared to some other books about technical analysis, that one reads like a textbook. Right. You know, from old school to new school he incorporates all kinds of stuff in there. So anyway, besides the point here, just a quick breakdown of what we’re looking at here in this screen. Again a chart of the NASDAQ here again leading the way today only up a quarter of 1% at 19,075. Just a quick rundown again though, the green line here, as you’ll see from the you call it a legend, the green is the 200 day moving average, red is 150 is blue.

So we have had a brief dip below the 100 day but we’ve seen other dips like this. They’ve been short lived in the last year. But again I’ll draw your attention here. I won’t dive too deep today into our momentum oscillators but safe to say today on our short term VRA momentum oscillators, this is the most oversold that the NASDAQ has been since September of last year. Now look at the gains. If you looked at the last time we were this oversold just to today not to the all time high 13% gains. You wouldn’t be too mad, right? Got up as much as 20% gains in that same time frame. So we do remain extremely bullish here.

[00:05:30]:
And today’s action in Nvidia should help the market tomorrow as well. Again, we want to see some follow through tomorrow and hopefully a big day to the upside here. But more importantly, we want to see tech leading and semis leading tech. And that is what we saw today with tech up 2.34. This is SMH, the semiconductor ETF. So you know, looking at a one year chart here, which for trend analysis this is what we’ll do. You know, sometimes we’ll get into some daily charts as well. But for right now let’s take a look here at the one year chart of the semis.

Now you can see a few things here right off the bat. Yes, we are briefly below the 200 day. We don’t want to see that continue as the VRA investing system goes, you know, if you start to spend more than about five sessions underneath it, it’s, it’s really a red flag. And you see there’s been other dips below it and it has held so far. So again, this is tough to see on a one year chart. But you see a former resistance level here couldn’t break out. And then we got a break above the resistance. A kind of old technical analysis saying is that former resistance becomes future support.

[00:06:43]:
So we’ve got some support in this level. We’ve seen it hold a few times. Now what I want to show you here is again a one year chart might be a little messy. So sometimes you got to zoom out a little bit. So let’s take a look here at the five year chart of the semis right now this is just the last year on this side of the chart. That cleans things up quite a bit. Right. And what we’re seeing here now when you zoom out especially it becomes even more clear.

Again those that support level that’s right here that it’s been hitting. And what this really looks like in technical analysis would be a coiled spring ready to break out in our view to the upside. Another old technical analysis saying, you probably heard us say this a lot as well. This can also be referred to not only as support but as a base. Right. And the old saying, the, the broader the base, the higher in space it goes. So that’s what we’re looking at here. I think that’s a very good looking chart right there.

[00:07:44]:
It’s good, always good to see Those support levels holding. All right, so quickly here, I’ll cover the rest of our major indexes before we get on to the next topic. We also had the small caps finishing higher today, up just about 210 of 1%. The S&P 500 just barely managed to get back into positive territory before the close here. Again, you know, we had much better returns. We were positive across the board earlier in the session today. Saw some weakness in the afternoon, but good to finish off of those lows after. You know, Kip and I were talking about this last week as well.

We saw a series of good smart money hours then the last four sessions. That hasn’t been the case. But again, one thing that it has done for our market has been to alleviate the overbought pressure we were seeing, as we just saw from the Nasdaq, the most oversold levels on a short term basis since September of last year and the impressive gains that we’ve seen since that time. And of course, you know, I mean pauses happen in the market. We are still just a few percentage points away from all time highs here for the Nasdaq. The S P just hit an all time high last week. Right. So excuse me, on, on that note, actually one quick point here about the S P, the S P500 going back to 1980 in years where it hit an all time high in February.

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Only one time did the S P not go on to make new highs later in the year as well. Only one time. So all time highs in February are pretty good then seasonally speaking. Kip and I have talked about this a lot as well. The second half of February, historically speaking, is not a strong time of the year. We’re almost through that period now and then we can get to the beginning of the month, which always means, you know, beginning of the month fund flows as well. And now we have more strong earnings to go off of. Already earnings have crushed estimates for Q4 with very big growth.

Growth estimates continue to be upwardly revised. So very good to see very healthy earnings quarter as well. Finally here for today, our only major index to finish lower on the day was the Dow Jones down 4/10 of 1% at 43, 433. Again, sorry, getting used to this new system here, you know, looking all over the place. But we’ll get, we’ll get it dialed in for you here. But you know, hopefully you’re enjoying the chart so far. Looking forward to doing more of this with you. So on that note, let’s go ahead and take a look here at, at One more chart on the day.

[00:10:32]:
The 10 year yield, which has continued to move lower here, its longest losing streak weekly wise with now this will make six weeks in a row of losses for the 10 year, I believe again the longest losing streak in about five years. So we saw the peak here right recently in January. And much like the chart of yields that we saw in Trump’s first term, yields peaked, the dollar peaked just before the inauguration. And we said before the inauguration this year that we expected something similar. Here we are now in just over a month, yields are down over 10% in that time frame. Getting back to the 200 day moving average here and one other factor I’ll point out, let’s look at a daily chart here. This is where over here, sorry, the moving averages are a little bit in the way, but you can see we opened at the highs of the day and finished at the lows of the day. So our view remains unchanged.

[00:11:34]:
Yields will continue to move lower and it has been a credit to the Trump administration. And wow, just what a talented group from the cabinet meeting earlier today. So many incredible ideas talked about in there. You just got a taste of how intelligent this group is and how motivated they are to make a difference in the right way here as well. And Scott Bessant, new Treasury Secretary, has talked about yields moving lower. That’s what we’ve seen so far. Now we are at oversold levels on yields. This is about when you would expect to see a pop.

We don’t think it’d be anything significant. If you zoom out here on a chart, I know we just saw the daily chart. Let’s zoom out. You know, go to five years here as well. Remember on a one year chart that looks like the highest, but the high for Yields was nearly 5% in 2023. So if you track the this chart here, we are still seeing lower highs and lower lows. We expect that trend to continue as the disinflationary trend continues and we continue to be more and more impressed by Trump’s new administration. And how about, you know, just quickly here this news about the gold card from Trump as well for immigration, which would be replacing the previous EB5 program, which is a similar idea but will now be done, revamped, totally different.

[00:13:01]:
You know, we don’t have all the details out about it yet, but one detail that we do have is that Biden raised the minimum on EB5 from 500,000 to 800,000 to a million, depending on what economic zone you’re in. Now that will be raised by Trump to 5 million to get in. And, you know, again, different standards, different approaches for getting in. Again, we don’t have all the details here yet, but this could, this could be a nice little impact here. And this isn’t the only idea we’re hearing, right? There’s five, six other ideas like this floated every day, but this looks like this one is kind of one of the front runners to happen right now. And so, again, it’d be $5 million for investors. With that, you can bring in, you know, any eligible family members. The kind of word floating around right now is if a company wants to move their headquarters or office here to the US they could pay for some of their employees to relocate as well and be eligible for visas.

[00:14:07]:
So, again, don’t know all the details here, but just some of the quick numbers, you know, $5 million. The question would be how many people are really going to use this? Right? There’s only a few million people worth more than $5 million outside of the U.S. but again, you got to think about those companies as well. So if you get 200,000 people to join a plan like this at $5 million, that’s a trillion dollars in revenue that the US government didn’t have before. That puts a nice little, you know, a nice little dent in that deficit. You know, then you start to go up. And again, a big part of this would have to be companies as well. Considering there are only a few million people outside the country worth More than 5 million, are they going to spend their entire net worth to come to the U.S.

you know, but still, point being, when you start floating around numbers like this, you see how big of a deal it could be. Again, 200,000 people, $1 trillion in revenue. Just one idea. But if this succeeds, even more so, if you get a million people in, that’s $5 trillion coming in now. We can go higher and higher and you start to see how quickly, you know, we’re starting to put a real dent and get towards paying off the deficit. Absolutely. So just again, the got to give a lot of credit where credit’s due from DO Doge to his Cabinet. Um, just the people that Trump has surrounded himself with in general has been night and day difference from his first term and very good to see so far.

[00:15:38]:
All right, next up here, let’s take a look at our internals on the day today. These were a little bit better earlier in the session today, but still coming in with some nice positives here. So let’s take a look. Coming in, positive, more advancing stocks than declining stocks on both the Nyse and the NASDAQ. We had a little bit closer to 2 to 1 positive earlier in the session. But you know, finish a little bit off of that 52e highs. The lows were negative on the day. But as a lagging indicator in in the last few sessions we saw not a huge surprise.

Then we had volume coming in nicely positive on the NYSE. This was also about 2 to 1 positive earlier in the session. Closer to even but strongly positive still here and even better for the NASDAQ today. Let’s see here. Next up, looking at our sectors on the day, I also had one more point here I will make. I just realized I didn’t talk about this chart too. So one second back to yields here. You know.

[00:16:39]:
So this is again the yield side of the 10 year. Now we’ll look at the bond side, the price side of the 10 year. Look at this right downtrend line. What I’m keying off of here is the action in just the last few seconds. The last that looks like a breakout. You know, again we are reaching overbought here, especially on the short term V momentum oscillators and yields are hitting oversold. So again this is might when you see a little bit of a bounce maybe just to work off those conditions. And then a continuation of the move here.

And one more point here, this is why it’s fun to go through charts. You kind of realize stuff you forgot to talk about. One more point here, back to the nasdaq. What we look at this as here is this has been a strong year, right? It’s been a strong last two years since the October 12 lows of 2022 after the bear market. So we look at this again, the trend here is higher. We look at this move from the December highs as a counter trend move we think will be short term here. And another reason for that, again we are at oversold levels and the Fear and greed index remains at a 22. Wow, that is extreme fear.

[00:17:52]:
We’ve talked about the AII Investor sentiment survey a lot. We’ll get the latest look at that tomorrow as well. Right now we’re at about 70% of investors either bearish or neutral on this market right now. Let’s see here. Well, we can, we can start to get into some of what Kip talked about yesterday here as well. I’ll pull it up really quick. The CME’s Fed watch tool. We haven’t had a chance to visualize this before.

This is what Kip talked About yesterday briefly looked like we might be looking at three rate cuts this year. Now you can see the probabilities here for March firmly positive for no rate cuts. Although look, that has increased a little bit week over week. Right. Then we’ll go out to the end of the year and where the probabilities are for the very end of the year. So if right now we’re at four and a quarter to 450, look the new target rate down to 353.75 that that’s three cuts there. Right. But the probability remains for two rate cuts this year.

[00:18:52]:
But we’ve seen some big increases over the last few weeks, especially in look at three here we’re at 12. Now we’re at 28. So again, just wanted to help visualize that one here. That one can be a little confusing. It’s a lot of numbers thrown at you really quick. So we’re looking forward to visualizing more and more of this kind of stuff with you here on the VRA Investing podcasts. All right, so let’s kind of wrap it up here. Now looking at our sectors on the day, we finished with 4 out of our 11s P500 sectors higher on the day.

We were led by tech. Good to see. Followed by utilities. Another signal if the market’s a forward looking indicator that yields will continue to head lower. Utilities, the biggest borrowers in the nation. Our laggards on the day, consumer staples, healthcare and real estate. Finally here for today, our VRA commodity watch. Let me get a quick refresh of my screens here.

[00:19:47]:
All right, gold higher on the day today at $2,931 an ounce. Still not too far away from those all time highs. And just what you want to see, some outperformance today from the gold miners. GDX, the gold mining ETF up a nice 1.2% on the day today. After that, silver up, excuse me, essentially flat on the day now to $32.22 an ounce. Oil making some moves lower below $70 a barrel at $68.62 a barrel. And finally here, bitcoin. One last chart here for you today.

As you can see, this is the zoomed in version right here of the chart or there we go, zoomed in version right here of the chart. And that’s not pretty, right? That’s a waterfall. But you know, the 200 day should serve as some support here as well. You know, we think again, kind of a counter trend move. Look at the move we’ve had since Trump was elected. Again, that’s incredible right there. Right. So to give some of that back, obviously less than ideal.

[00:20:56]:
We think it’s short term. Again, extreme, extreme oversold here. That’s really getting close to extreme oversold on steroids by those two indicators. Really it is. That’s the most oversold we’ve been since August of last year. Look at those lows there. So again, we’re big believers in bitcoin here. We remain big believers in bitcoin and this is a long term V position as well.

With those with our favorite positions, we highly recommend dollar cost averaging, where you just set apart, set a portion of your paycheck every month up to go into your investing account and buy your favorite stocks every month. You know, if you see a move lower, it can help bring down your price point. If you’re, if you’re going up, sure, it’ll bring your price point up, but it’s increasing your exposure to good positions. You know, just looking back on history and all of the trading books that I do like to read, you know, one common theme is similar to gambling. Really. You may have heard of pyramid betting. You know, as you win, increase your bet size. When you lose, go back to your base.

[00:21:59]:
Similar style. You hear from a lot of traders that their best strategies have involved adding to their winners. And when you’re in the middle of an innovation revolution and a major bull market like we are just entering year three of right now, we’ve compared this period to the NASDAQ from 1995 to 2000 when it rallied 575%. So yes, along that timeline, you would have wanted to continue adding and adding and adding to your positions. And when something changes, we’ll let you know. But we think this period has the potential to beat that.com/era melt up. Yeah. So in, in that environment, you want to hold your winners, Right? So folks, little bit of background there, a little bit of charting.

[00:22:46]:
Hope you enjoyed it. Thank you for being here with us today. As always, you can tune in to receive our V podcast episode every day at the market close. You can sign up to receive them at vraletter. Com, click the podcast link at the top and we’d love to have you with us. Thanks again for tuning in. Until next time, we’ll see you back here tomorrow for the close.