In today's episode, Kip breaks down the week's strong stock market action and the key market drivers leading our market higher from here. He also covers J Powell address at Jackson Hole today and what is next for the Federal Reserve. Lastly, Kip discusses RFK Jr.'s important speech this afternoon and what it means for the Trump Campaign. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Friday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a great day today. Hope your week is fantastic as well.

If you’re long and strong, you had a good day. Today turns to be a pretty good week, didn’t it, Tyler? I feel sorry for Tyler. I don’t know what’s going on here, but we’re on a cycle where he gets the big down days.

He got it yesterday as he covered. As we talked about earlier this week, we expected there to be a shakeout, kind of a buy the rumors sell. The news event headed into the Jay Powell speech today. Jackson hole. We got it, got it yesterday. And Tyler, of course, got the big down day. I get the big update as usual. Let’s start there because it was a good day.

We closed at the highs today. Great smart money hour. Oh, man. We are almost there. To new all time highs again in the Dow and SV 500. A lot of good things to talk about here. A lot of good things happening to talk about the internals. Smoking internals today.

Bitcoin on fire. I think we think we know why has something to do with the guy named Robert F. Kennedy junior. And what he announced today was an iconic address that I cannot wait to go back and watch the full thing again tonight. The media broke away from it. I missed the very beginning, but what an iconic address. RFK junior brought about the sad state of this country and our leadership and the wrong roads were going down. Just, just a great address.

[00:01:29]:
Talk about that a little bit. Again, a textbook day today with semis leading Nasdaq, Nasdaq leading the broad market. And we closed at the highest of the day. Great smart money hour. Dow Jones today up 462 points. It’s a 1.1%. SV 500 up a big 64 points, up 1.5% to 1.15%. Russ, 2000 up 3% today.

Really like small caps here. Look, we have for a long time, they’ve actually had a pretty good run here. But you look at a two year chart, I mean, they’re just breaking out of two year highs, the past 52 week highs. But it’s been a two year bear market. And so it’s time for this group to go. It’s time for them to get to all time highs. Only major index, of course, is yet to do that. We’re now entering, seasonally speaking, a very favorable period.

Down. Small caps coming up as well. Nasdaq today up one and a half percent, a big 258 points. And again, SVF, excuse me, semiconductors, up 2.4% today. So there’s your textbook move, right? Semis up two point there. We got smoked yesterday, today up 2.5% today. Nasdaq up 1.5% today, leading just the way they’re supposed to. Again, strong smart money hour.

Again, this is, this is textbook early bull market action. And we just had that big shakeout. It got all the bears riled up, right? All the, all the hot new money that just came into the market, they sold. I mean, this is the way, this is the very characteristic in nature of a young bull, and that’s the key point. It’s a young bull market. When the characteristics starts to change and the personality of this market starts to change, it’ll be very apparent that those changes are taking place and we’ll let you know. But right now, folks, this is early inning stuff. This is early inning bull market.

[00:03:16]:
That’s exciting. And again, we added kind of a new catalyst to our base case, and that is that, you know, look for the market to do what we think it’s going to do, which is the Dow Jones going to 100,000, Nasdaq going to 40,000 in the next five plus years. Then we’re going to have a lot of years like we did during.com dot. We’re going to have a lot of years where the market’s at 25, 30, 35%, not just one or two or three, but many years over maybe a 1015 year period. So, yeah, this could be a very special bull market. And for that to happen, we have to have a lot of years like that. Right now, the S 500 is only up 17%, only up 17% for the year. So, yeah, we got some room to run there.

And then again, if Trump wins with maybe RFK junior is either his attorney general, because you probably saw today RK junior essentially dropped out. He’s going to, he’s going to stay. And this is brilliant the way he’s doing this in respect, out of respect for the people that worked so hard in his campaign. And they did, getting him on these ballots, right, in all these states, even as a Democrat party, not the republican party, but as a Democrat party. He’s a lifelong. My God. His father was Robert F. Kennedy.

His uncle was John F. Kennedy junior. Right. For him to work this hard as a Democrat, to legitimately and legally get on all of these states ballots and for democrats to machine, you know, the state, the deep state, which is what that is to come in and just law fear them to death to try to get them off all the balance, all these states. I mean, if you believe in democracy, you don’t do that, which tells you that’s the tell, right? They’re always gaslighting. They’re saying, we believe in democracy. Trump does it. You know, it’s just the opposite.

[00:05:13]:
They are always gaslighting and they’re always projecting, which is probably the better use of the word here, projecting. If they call you something. They are absolutely that. And again, RFK junior just nailed it to the wall today. It was a very hard thing for him to do, to leave the Democrat party and become an independent, but he did it. And he has a lot of supporters that are with him, very loyal. Not quite to the degree of support that H. Ross Perot had when he got 19% of the vote as an independent, would I be surprised if he had moved forward? Again, he’s staying on the ballot in non battleground states.

So that’s brilliant. It’s great news for Trump. Of course, he dropped out today and endorsed Trump in a very impressive, again, I believe, an iconic speech today, an address to the nation about the very sad state of affairs in this country in so many different areas, from our health to censorship to the state running everything and just burying the average guy. You challenge them, they crush you. Right? This is not what America is supposed to be like. And to be able to, for him to point all that out and hopefully, again, if he’s going to stay in the non battleground states, he’s going to stay on those ballots. I like that. My guess is it’s going to take a lot more votes from Biden than it will from Trump.

[00:06:41]:
But again, in states like Texas, it shouldn’t matter. It won’t matter. In other red states where Trump has a, you know, is going to win big or in the states where democrats can win big, then it just won’t matter. He’s on the ballot, although again, could hurt democrats much more. But in the swing states, the battleground states that are tight, he is dropping out, removing his name from consideration from the ballots, and is throwing all of his support to Trump. And so for me, I’m speaking selfishly here. I’ve been, what’s the right word here, disgusted by what’s happened in this country with the likes of the Anthony Fauci’s of the world, just criminals, pure criminals that should be locked up, keep thrown away, bury under the cell. And we have, I could probably name 100 of these criminals that should not be allowed in proper society.

They should be locked up. These are. These are evildoers, but they’re the ones running the show. We could put RFK junior, make him attorney general. He’s an attorney. Make him an attorney general. Let him give him free reign to go after who he wants to. Right? Big pharma now, you know Trump is going to have a problem with that.

[00:07:59]:
Let’s be honest. Trump is taking major donations from Pfizer and other big pharma companies. Look, I know it pisses a lot of people off when I say this. Don’t care. Trump is the proud father of the jab, okay? These things are killing people by massive numbers is likely a global depopulation event. It’s either officially happening or unfortunately, I believe, soon to happen. Just look at the deaths report. Just young people just dropping dead from heart issues, right? Again, this is vaccine related, there is no question about that.

Kip Herriage [00:08:37]:
And Trump still supports this. The biggest part of that is he’s backed off his support. He doesn’t proudly call himself the father’s jab anymore. But these are now, and they have been now for a year. These death jabs are on the children’s immunization schedule. This is probably what infuriates. Look, if you’re an adult, take a thousand jabs, I don’t care. You’re an adult.

You do what you want to do. It’s your life to do with as you please. But for our children to be on the children’s immunization schedule, folks. Meaning that while adults can choose not to take these, and many adults are choosing not to, because number one, they don’t work, and number two, they kill and maim and injure and vaccine injure, all this, right, by the millions, just in the US. But for children that don’t have a choice, whose parents don’t know any better, that believe they can trust their doctor, and then say it’s on the children’s immunization schedule, we’re going to give you kids and the parents won’t even know it. In most cases, they’re okay. So you recommend it, doc? Go for it. And then to see children, I mean, this is the kind of evil that it didn’t even happen in.

[00:09:43]:
This didn’t happen in Nazi Germany, right? The Nuremberg trials. We’re supposed to stop this from ever happening. Experimental use vaccines? No, you can’t mandate those in any situation. So this is pure evil. And if RFK junior would have free reign to go after them, and if you don’t want to make them attorney general, fine, put him in charge of health and human services or National Institute of Health, right? That’s what Fauci basically ran for 40 years and destroyed this country’s healthcare. If you haven’t read RFK junior s book, the real Anthony Fauci, I highly recommend you read it. It’s nauseating. You can’t believe it’s real and it’s all true.

And he goes back again four decades. So I think it’s exciting news. It’s absolutely a major boost to the Trump campaign. Democrats are trying to spin it another way. Don’t believe them. Just like don’t believe their campaign. Don’t believe their, their, their convention. I mean, what a, what a joke, right? No substance.

She won’t even sit for an interview. These are just celebrities, right? They’re talking about how, how harmed they’ve been, right? How they’ve been targeted. And they’re, these are $100 million plus, billion dollar plus entitled people that are just up there lying to us left and right. I don’t know at this point. I don’t know how anyone, and this is what RK junior said to how anyone can vote for this party anymore. I don’t know. And in the problem, there might be some good people in it, but if you’re a member of that evil party, you have to leave that party, or you have to be, you’re tainted. You’re evil with it.

[00:11:25]:
I mean, I candidly made this case to a lot of people. I’ll be about being Catholics, you know, when they’re sodomizing and raping young boys by the who knows how many is it? Millions. We never got a hard number, but we know it went back a long ways. I don’t know how you’re part of that. How are you stage a protest vote, take three years off, stop giving them money. Make them change their ways? No, I don’t understand. I don’t understand sheep. I guess.

I don’t understand sheep. That’s my problem. And I know I’m preaching to the choir here. This is a red pilled audience. And by the way, if you’re not red pill jet, don’t worry, you will be. Hey, a whole country’s being red pilled. It’s a natural event that takes place when the insanity becomes too much to bear. We’re all going through this together.

This is actually, by the way, in our book, the big bribe. It’s one of our five mega trends, the red pilling of America. It’s hugely bullish. Look at what is, what to happen here if Trump is back in for a second term, which really should be his third term. But back in RFK, junior plays an important role in cabinet post the administration. JD Vance has proved to be a fantastic vp. I believe, so far, the good that Trump could do with a red pilled country. We unite, right? And we take the insanity out of this country when we already have the innovation.

[00:12:57]:
Think about this. We have the innovation revolution already taking place. We are in the roaring two thousand and twenty s. The first America is flush. The first America is flush with cash and flush with assets that have grown to record values more than at any point in this country. And that’s just, again, that you don’t have to. You’re not hearing the news and maybe you don’t like hearing it, maybe you think it flies in the face of what you’re hearing. I’m just telling you the truth.

This is the reality. So for Trump to be able to preside over an economy like this, yeah, we’re talking about the ability to build wealth and prosperity that is unprecedented in the history of this country for those that just open their eyes and see what’s happening, and again, that’s exactly where Tyler and I believe are headed. So it’s a good day. It was a good day. It was fantastic to see RFK junior do what he did today. And again, that’s bitcoin. Bitcoin immediately caught up to it. Bitcoin is like, oh, really? He’s doing that? Well, let me go higher then.

Bitcoin right now. 63,589. That’s up 5% on the day, almost 4.9% of the day. So bitcoin loves it. Of course, RFK Junior is a big bitcoin guy. Trump is now calling himself the bitcoin president. I don’t even know if he knows what a bitcoin is. I mean, candid.

But it doesn’t matter. When Trump makes a big announcement like that, he tends to stick by it. And I don’t think he’d revert back and be anti bitcoin. Remember, he called it a scam at one point. That’s all right. A lot of people did, too. Jamie Downey did the same thing, and so a lot of people did, and now they turn it in. Blackrock, same thing.

[00:14:35]:
Right? And now they’re big believers. So, hey, it’s America, you know, land of second chances, right? But it’s an exciting day and I think it gives us a lot of hope. Yeah, we know they’re going to rig this thing, but, man, are they ever going to have to rig it now. Right. Wait till the debate happens. Okay, the debate. Of course, Kamala, when the debate happens next month, she will, it’s on ABC. She will have every question one week in advance.

So she probably, she should not be underestimated going into that debate. But she will have the questions, she will be training on these, answering these questions for a full week before that debate. Just no doubt about that, because that’s how the machine works. Whatever it takes, right. Cheat however you have to. So Trump should be really be, have his a game and, but even then, she’s gonna, she can’t come back and forth. She’s got no ability to, you know, because she just, I mean, I’m not a fan of when Trump calls her names, but, you know, if you’ve seen her in any social setting where she’s just giving a speech off the cuff, this is not a particularly smart woman. Or maybe she just doesn’t think on her feet.

Maybe, you know, who knows what the reason is? But she does not impress unless she’s got a teleprompter in front of her. So there’ll be a lot of opportunities here to, because, again, you have to win by a whole lot of votes to beat the rig. Okay, again, a lot to talk about today. I’m gonna go pretty fast now. Again, textbook day today. Internals were fantastic. Tyler just told me in our pre podcast meeting, we are 200 points in the way. Believe this, we’re only 200 points away the Dow Jones from all time high.

We’re 60 points away from all time high in S and P 500. Okay? That’s essentially the same thing. It’s basically like eight points. Every point move in SF Hunter is like eight points in the Dow Jones. So it’s, they’re both about the same percentage away from all time high. Nasdaq has got, you know, a little ways to go. It’s a 800 points from an all time high. And of course, you know, we know that Russ 2000 has got a ways to go, but this has been a great comeback we had to shake out.

Kip Herriage [00:16:47]:
You know, look, we’re at overbought levels, but only on their very short term momentum oscillator stochastics. On nothing else, are we overbought? So this market could just keep zooming higher? Because Jay Powell, I cannot believe I’m all this long into the podcast. I haven’t even talked about the big event of the day. Before RFK endorsing Trump and dropping out was Jay Powell giving his address at Jackson Hole. It lasted 17 minutes. It was very succinct and to the point. And I can sum it up with this first sentence. The time has come to change course, right? And look, we expected Jay Powell to be maximum dovish, right? That’s how I wrote it this morning.

[00:17:29]:
That’s how Tyler and I have been talking about all week. We got exactly what we expected and maybe a little more. Because again, the key point here, and I think this is what the Fed is finally waking up to. They’re reactionary. They do not act. They wait till the house is on fire and they put it out. This is the way Jay Powell’s fed operates, is why he’s the worst fed chair in history. This clown tried to defend today.

He tried to use revisionist history to change the story on transitory inflation. They all chuckled and laughed about it. Laughing about something that has caused untold millions of families to have to choose between medicine and food, between paying for their home or paying for food for their children. And these guys are up there yucking up about, oh, we got transitory inflation wrong. That’s just. That shows you how out of touch they are in the Fed. Ron Paul was right from day one end. The Fed.

We have to have a new system. Maybe put RFK Junior in charge of that, too. We need some smart people running the show to rebuild everything, get rid of these complete dirt bags in their ivory towers that are running things today. But, yeah, pal said exactly what we expected, maximum bullishness. Yes, they’re going to cut. I do expect it to be a half point. I know most people are saying a quarter, but there’s a lag effect. And this is something that Ed Hyman, ever greater comms at Evercore is what he’s talked about forever is he said, I don’t know that the Fed understands the power of the lag effect and it works in both directions.

[00:19:14]:
Now, the lag effect is rate cuts next month. We still haven’t had one yet. The market’s starting to discount that, but. And move in front of it. But rate cuts aren’t even going to be felt for some time. Again, the market is moving advance of it. Mortgage rates are falling, ten year yields back to 3.8%. So, yeah, the markets will take care of some of that, but the lag will be felt and we’ll have to wait and see how bad the job market has been damaged.

I frankly don’t think it’s all that bad again, because the innovation revolution is really going to solve so many problems. AI and all the mega trends you talked about with it far more than just AI. This is about innovation in so many different industries. AI is just a piece of that puzzle. But I think he’ll be probably built out from the strong economy by the strong economy. So I don’t know that they’ll have to cut by a half point next month. But you imagine if they were on the wrong side of this, and then with the election coming up in two months. Man, how pissed off is Team Kamala going to be at Jay Powell? How mad is the state? They might even be furious at Jay Powell for acting too late.

Bank of America put this out last night. I’m glad I caught this. This is a great gift from bank of America. Five of the last six Jackson hole speeches saw the SB 500 drop an average of 7.5% over the next three months. So that’s essentially to the election. Imagine if the stock market drops from here, 7.5%, not a small amount, seven and a half percent in the next three months into the election. Yeah. That’s going to hurt Kamala.

That’s going to hurt the unit party, that’s going to hurt the deep state without question. So Jay Powell, I believe, is going to be acting faster than what the markets expect. I do think we’ll get a half point, but that look, that’s faked in the cake now that we’re headed, that’s one of our big catalysts. Now that’s out of the way. It’s happened. We expect it to be front ran. We invested on that belief and we’ve been paid well for doing that. Now, what’s going to be front run next? Well, we got next Wednesday.

[00:21:19]:
That’s the Nvidia earnings report. I fully expect Nvidia to put up a big number. There are some questions about earnings because it’s one of their product might have a delay in it. I just don’t. I just don’t think. I think them. I think Nvidia has already had us move lower. I think that doesn’t even matter.

Look, Nvidia dropped. Let’s remember Nvidia, fella from 141, the all time high to. Excuse me 1 second, I want to get this right. Yeah. Fell from 141 to a low of 90. Right. Wow. What is that? 36? Almost 36%.

And that happened in a couple months. So any bad news is baked in the cake for Nvidia. That’s my view. Now, again, like the rest of the semis and tech in the market, we have gotten back again short term momentum, oscillator stochastics, back to heavily overbought. But in a stock like Nvidia, I do think the lows are in. And I think next Wednesday, I think the stock will continue to rally. The stock is going to go a lot higher, as are the semis in general. So that’s our next catalyst then we’ll get the jobs report on September 6.

[00:22:41]:
And that’s for the month of August. I think it doesn’t matter. And here’s why. If the jobs report comes in strong, if it’s weak, it’ll just cement. Okay. They’re going to do by, they’re going to cut by half point, right. So that’ll be baked in the cake. But if the jobs report somehow comes in strong, no one is going to believe it.

And why would we? They just admitted to lying about creating more than 800,000 jobs that never existed in the first place. We just learned that on Wednesday. So even if the jobs becomes strong, the markets are going to get, going to go. I don’t believe you. They’re going to cut by half point. So again, the market’s discounting all this and moving hard. Front running has never happened. I’ve said this so many times.

But for our new people, front running, if you, if you could figure out the front running game and this, we’ve been spending obviously a lot more time on this because it is that important. If you can figure out the front running game, you can crush the market. And I’m being candid with you, that is what we’ve been doing. And so I think front running these events will continue to be big. And so that, those are the catalysts right there. And then, of course, the big one. Then it’ll be the fed rate cut. And that’s on September the 8th, 20, I don’t know, 28 or it’s been a long week.

What can I say? And that might, that might be a buy the rumor, sell the news event that that Fed rate cut probably will be, listen, we’ll cross that bridge much later when we come to it. Okay? But in the interim, these dips are going to be short lived. Like yesterday. That was the dip. I think that’s it. I think they’re going to be very short lived. I think you’re going to get one, maybe two days on a sell off on bad news of some kind. But the buyers are going to be waiting.

[00:24:27]:
Buyers of size are going to be waiting. Remember, we also have a lot of share buyback programs that are in place. So we got $6 trillion in money market accounts. There’s so many people that do not believe in this market or scared to death about it because of something happening before the election, and they’re not wrong to be scared about it. We have a hedge in the portfolio and it’s for just for that reason. That’s just insurance. Right, by the way. But, you know, you’d be a little crazy not to be concerned.

And they just tried to kill Trump. You know, would any of us be surprised if we learned they took out Trump and RFK junior on the same day? It’d be a dark, be a dark day. But would we really be surprised the markets would be? Because that would. That would mean, okay, we’re likely having, it’s a full on war between us and them, and that means probably civil war because we got the guns and then it’d be up to the military to decide which side they’re going to be on. Right. But, yeah, that. I mean, we were almost there. That almost happened.

So, yeah, there’s never a. There’s never a guarantee. As bullish as things are, that’s why insurance makes sense. But again, I think that the action in the market today, again, these internals were just fantastic here. We also, by the way, we had four sectors today at an all time high, again. So again, just textbook all the way around these internals. 91% of volume day for NYSE, 91%. That is big.

That’s a buy signal, that’s a zwide thrust. Okay. NYC had Nasdaq, 78% up volume. Good. Not great. It’s pretty solid, though. But these were, these were fantastic. Advanced decline, 7.8 to one NYSE.

[00:26:13]:
That’s strong. That’s garlic. Strong as was 91% of volume. And then finally, Nasdaq, three to one, advanced decline. So NYSE was stronger today, pretty much across the board, although you look at Nasdaq, it was up more percentage wise, as were the semis. So it’s just the breadth and the focused issue is what we’re talking about here. Again, you can’t complain with any of these numbers. Good day.

Sector watch today. Again, no surprise here. All eleven s and P 500 sectors finish higher on the day, led by real estate, up 2%. Lower rates. Right. Strong housing. Housing starts. New housing starts with the strongest just announced this morning.

Strongest renewal, new housing starts since March of last year. All right, housing leads everything. Huge buy signal for the us economy. Consumer discretion up 1.8%. We had a lot of sectors up other 1%. Again, all eleven sectors finished high on the day. And our commodity watch today, again, this is a great, great setup for gold up 32 today. Got back all its losses.

We’re just now another $20 from an all time high. Last is 25 48 announced again up $32 today at 1.2%. Silver up 2.8% today. Big move for silver at 29.86 an ounce. Copper also up nicely, 1.36% at 420 a pound. Crude oil bouncing back up $2 a barrel is 2.7% to 74.97 a barrel. And again, finally, bitcoin last trade 63 6000 up of now 5% in the last 24 hours. Again, it likes this combination of Trump and RFK.

Junior and JD Vance, of course, is a big bitcoin guy. So let’s go. Right, what are we now, $8,000 away from all time high for bitcoin? Let’s get there by Monday. Let’s make that happen, captain. All right, folks. Hey, always appreciate you. Listen, hope you had a great day and even better weekend. We’ll see you back here again Monday after the close.