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VRA Investing Podcast: Strong Follow Through Day, Bullish Signals, and Bitcoin’s Pre-Halving Movement – Kip Herriage – March 21, 2024

In today's episode, Kip provides a quick but insightful overview of the market's performance, focusing on the aftermath of the Fed Day and Powell's press conference. Kip highlights the bullish market sentiment, the strong performa ...

Posted On March 21, 2024Episode 1348
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About This Episode

In today's episode, Kip provides a quick but insightful overview of the market's performance, focusing on the aftermath of the Fed Day and Powell's press conference. Kip highlights the bullish market sentiment, the strong performance of various sectors, and the promising developments in the commodity space, including the potential for gold to reach new highs.

Transcript

Don’t look back. The market is closed. Good Thursday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Going to keep this one a little short today. I’ve got some things going on we’ve got to take care of, so let’s get right to it. A good follow through day today after yesterday’s Fed day, fomc minutes and Powell presser.

Just outstanding job. We really gave Mr. Powell a standing o yesterday for not messing things up. Really, honestly, they’re getting out of the way. They may not cut rates. Frankly, it was almost better than a rate cut. Rate cuts do come with an implication that things are, you know, the fact that they’re holding rates where they are as the economy continues to percolate. I will say we got news from Lulu, of course, red hot retailer that they missed.

Disappointed street stocks down pretty sizably on their miss here. Let me see the last quote here. Lulu down $29 this year, down 6%. Just an observation to one of those things. I think the economy is weakening. I think Powell knows that and he’s just going to get out of the way, let the markets do what they’re going to do, which is exactly what the Fed should always do. He had a question during his press yesterday. Does he regret having monthly press conferences? And his reaction was very telling.

[00:01:18]:
It’s very sarcastic. He doesn’t like doing any more than we like being forced to watch it. But all in all, very good job for JPAL yesterday. We have a green light for this market, folks. By the way. It’s very uncommon. Very uncommon. It’s not uncommon for the markets to be up the day before a Fed pressure.

It’s very uncommon for them to then be up the day after the Fed pressure. Typically you get some profit taking. That didn’t happen today. Closed off the highs today a little bit, but still, listen, we can’t complain, can we? All time highs today. It’s a long list. All time highs in SP 100, all time highs in Dow Jones, all time highs in Nasdaq. All time highs in Nasdaq 100 as dollar just told me all time highs in the weighted Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. So that’s breadth.

[00:02:05]:
That’s broadening. We saw it today in the internals as well. I’ll just mention this now before we get to the internals. This is garlic strong here. Strongest rings you’ve seen in a while. This is what we’re looking for. It’s happening. We had a combined NYC and Nasdaq 781 stocks in a new 50 week high today to just 72, hitting a new 52 week low.

Again, any concerns people had about it being a thin market, those are way behind us. Big time rear view mirror. These are garlic strong readings. Exactly what you want to see. Bull markets begin really to accelerate at all time highs. That’s what’s happening now. Reminder, small caps today. We’re up 1.1% today, still 14% below all time high.

The markets are giving us a gift in small caps, and we continue to pound the table on this group. Let’s go ahead and cover the rest of the markets while we’re at it. Dow Jones today up seven tenths, 1%, up a nice 269 points. SPF hundred up three tenths, 1%. Again, rust, 2000 up 1.1. Nasdaq up two tenths, 1%. Nasdaq have been up well over 100 points. Still closed up 32.

[00:03:08]:
But again, it’s been strong. The semis continue to lead higher. There’s our tell. Semis today up 2.3%. Micron up 14% on their killer earnings, as Tyler covered yesterday after the close. This is the group, folks. We’ll continue to follow it and it will continue to lead higher. The AI innovation revolution is upon us.

And we are early innings of this tech revolution, which is extraordinary and will continue to propel earnings. And again, we have a structural bull market inside the scope. That’s really been our theme now, really for over a year, is that this is a structural bull market based on an incredibly strong consumer. Corporate America in the best shape in decades. Consumer as well. That’s powering all of this. Of course, now we have the innovation revolution that’s powering all of that. So this is, again, second shot at 95 to 2000.

It’s honest. Stay locked in. We have a green light. Dips should be short lived here. We’ll get them. We always do. Trees don’t grow the sky overnight. We’ll get dips, but they will be short lived, in our opinion.

[00:04:09]:
And we’re still in a very seasonally bullish time. Remember April 2, best month of the year. We’re getting close to it. Also, this could be end of the quarter, believe it or not. We’ll have Q two earnings before long. Time really flies, doesn’t it? And again, that means fund flows. Fund flows are going to start coming in beginning of month. Just a lot of reasons to be bullish here.

And that’s how we’re going to continue to play it. Oh, Vra investing system. I covered this on our members only podcast. This morning we are officially at eleven out of twelve. VrA investing system screens are bullish. I cannot find another time we’ve been at eleven or twelve. I’ve gone back through all my notes. Eleven of twelve screens are bullish.

That is extraordinary. Obviously never been twelve of twelve. I don’t think that’s even going to be possible, frankly, because you just get too overbought at that point. So some things start coming off the list. Right? But this is a very good set up. Again, dip buying is the play here. If not, if you don’t want to buy dips, just hold, just hold. Also, one of our favorite indicators for being overbought oversold is the percent of stocks, stocks above the 52 hundred day.

[00:05:17]:
We’re only at 78.8% of SB of hundred stocks above their 50 day moving average. Until this gets over 90%, frankly, 92, 93, that’s not a real concern. Over 90 we start to alert. Above the 200 day it’s 81.6%. Kind of the same thing applies. Over 90% will start alerting you. Maybe it’s time to maybe take a few profits. Maybe it’s time to at least be more patient.

Right now we’re just not near that. And Tyler covered this well yesterday. This is really extraordinary. And this is why very system is at eleven to twelve screens. This rotational action we’ve had over the last month and a half, two months in the market, so incredibly healthy. Again, textbook early bull market action. Broadening action is what’s taking place here. And it’s meaning as we rotate from group to group, as some groups get strong, others get weak, the value starts to grow, gets stronger, then you’ll see a little bit of weakness in growth in tech stocks.

[00:06:14]:
Well, that’s just broadening action. But what it does is it removes the overbought indicators for our momentum oscillators. And it’s so important to keep a bull market healthy and powering ahead. Again, extraordinary action here. Definitely not a bubble. Now, there’s one that’s beginning to build. But remember, it’s only beginning to build. That’s the key here.

We also had a first hot IPO in a while, didn’t we? Reddit today goes public. I know very little about this company, except I don’t really have an interest in being on their site. Kind of a Bizarre site, but I guess it’s very popular with some folks. What was the $8 billion IPO, essentially. And our valuation for the company stock was up 48% today. So we’re starting to see a hot IPO market come back. But again, that’s only starting to happen. We got a long, long ways to go before we can even start to say this is similar to.com, long ways before that happens.

[00:07:11]:
But it is starting and that’s the key, I think. All right, let’s take a look under the hood today at our internals sector watch first. I’ve got it right in front of me. Good day here. Ten of eleven sectors finished higher on the day, led to the upside by industrials of 1%. A lot of groups up in that range today. Financials, energy, consumer discretion, all up half percent or more. Almost nothing to the downside whatsoever.

Very strong day there, internals. Quick refresh. Yeah, I’ll repeat, this is what stands out. As I said a minute ago, 781 stocks hit a new 52 week high. Two to 72 hit a new 52 week low. Garlic strong right there. Exactly what you want to see. NYSE two to one advanced decline.

Nasdaq one and a half to one. Positive volume today, 62% positive on NYSE. It’s a good reading. Not great, but good. Nasdaq right at 52% again, there’s a win across the board. These are solid internals. Make no mistake about it. What’s more important about the internals is the action that took place last week, Thursday and Friday, got people a little scared.

[00:08:22]:
Had back to back days that were kind of ugly. But on both days, the internals were solid across positive across the board. That’s a significant pattern change. And that, again is why we’re at eleven to twelve screens bullish, because the internals now have caught up to the rest of this very strong bull market in our commodity watch today. As I said, I’m going to move pretty fast today. Commodity watch today. A little bit of weakness in the. Frankly, yes.

I’m a huge bull in this group. Now. Of course, gold all time highs overnight, well over 2200. Closing today, 21 80. Still up $22 over the last 22 hours, 24 hours. But I really want to see that 2250 area taken out because our target, minimum target this year for gold is 2400. I actually think we may get 3000 an ounce on gold, which means the miners are really going to soar. Now, they were down today, remember, the miners were up.

[00:09:18]:
GDX was up over 4% yesterday. Gave back a little bit today. That’s very common. One thing I did not note yesterday, and I just updated our parabolic option members on this a bit ago. We had an outside reversal day yesterday in GDX, a big outside bullish engulfing pattern yesterday in GDX. It’s a high probability bullish pattern. We want to see GDX, the minor ETF, do two things. We want to see it take out 32.

Right now, it’s right at $30 a share, and want to see volume start to come in. Now, volume is building, but it’s still low, incredibly low for this very cheap group. Once we get over 50, 60 million shares a day, we’ll see the momentum traders really start to come back. Right now, today we had, for example, just under 34 million shares traded. So it’s tiny for this group, but once it gets going, this group does tend to move in spurts and gets very hot in spurts. I think that’s what’s developing here, and that’s how we’re playing you here at the Bra commodity watch again. Gold up 22 at 21 80. Announced silver today down $0.18 an ounce at 24 91.

[00:10:26]:
Copper up another penny a pound at 406 a pound. Crude oil down thirty seven cents a barrel at 80 90 a barrel. And finally, bitcoin. Last trade, flip flopping around here as it consolidates below all time highs. Now just under 66,000 for bitcoin. A day and a half ago, it was 60,000. They traded overnight as high as 69 and change now just under 66. The having, of course, is coming, but now in 29 days.

Grayscale is the primary reason the Grayscale trust is liquidating. I don’t really understand all the particulars behind it, but they’re selling pretty much every day. The bitcoin in their trust converting to a full ETF instead of a spot ETF instead of what they had the trust before. They’re down liquidating. They’ve liquidated about half of the bitcoin in their trust, so that’s giving us some supply. And again, you’ve got this period that we’re in now pre having, which has been typically weak for the last two having cycles, but that doesn’t last long. It’s a one or two week thing, and frankly, I think those lows are already in. We’ve already had a 15% correction in this pre having time frame, and then a having again in 29 days, and then it should be off to the races.

Based on history, that’s when the biggest moves have taken place in bitcoin. All right, folks, that’s it for today. Hey, I hope you had a great day. An even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close. Bye.

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Time Stamps

00:00 Stocks down, economy weakening, Powell's press conference.
05:42 Rotation signals healthy bull market with broadening action.
06:36 Reddit IPO valuation up 48% today.
10:54 Grayscale trust liquidating, Bitcoin converting to ETF.

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