In today’s episode, Kip breaks down another action packed day in the markets as we ride a six day streak of all time highs. Kip covers everything from the kickoff of the latest Fed meeting to the robust Q2 earnings reports that have been easily beating analyst expectations. He dives deep into market seasonality, the looming U.S.-China trade talks, and discusses why there’s still plenty of cash on the sidelines ready to jump in should we see any pullback. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. A lot going on here. We got Fed meetings starting Today, we got Q2 earnings continue to roll out. U S China trade talks today going. And then of course we’ve got again six straight days coming in today of all time highs for the markets.

But first quick heads up, Tyler is going to be on Wayne Allen Root’s new hit show tonight. That’s a CO branded podcast with Gateway pundit. Tonight at 7:30 Eastern you can catch Tyler with Wayne either via Gateway pundits website or on Rumble. Hope you can join us there. Again coming up in six straight days here we gave some back today. You know look we’re going into, and you’re probably hearing this everywhere so we’ll see if it’s going to be a self fulfilling prophecy or if it even happens at all. But you know we’re going into a period of somewhat negative seasonality. It doesn’t feature huge losses but it’s, it’s not a great three month period from August to October.

[00:01:03]:
And so I think you know we’re starting to hear a lot of people talk about this market now reaching extreme overbought levels then. This is when pauses or pull packs tend to take place. We’ll see whether or not it happens. I frankly be surprised if it does. There’s so much cash on the sidelines. It’s one of the things Tyler’s going to talk about tonight into money supply at record levels. I think Tyler just told me M2 money supply is over $21 trillion. M2 money supply, $21 trillion.

That’s cash. Cash equivalence in bank accounts. Stunning. Because we all know that mutual fund, excuse me, money market funds are at record highs as well, $7.5 trillion. So look, retail’s got has this rally, right? People that bought the dip from the April 7 lows have had this rally, right, but, but who stayed out of this market to a large degree has been a lot of institutional money, the so called smart money, the group think money. And so I think there’s gonna be a lot of support here in case we have any kind of a pullback. And remember also again we’re in the heat of Q2 earnings which so far have been very, very strong. Well we just released this data this morning.

Typically. Well first of all the earning, the estimates coming into Q2 from analysts were horrible. They were looking at Q2 earnings growth of like 4%. Well, we’re going to have better than double that folks. So far 80% of the companies are beating both on revenue and on earnings. Okay, this is a above the five year averages and it’s sustained. This will be the highest revenue beat since the second quarter of 2021 and this will be the highest rev earnings growth beat since June, the June quarter of 20I, June quarter 2022. So we’re looking at again this is much better.

[00:02:49]:
The analyst said surprise, surprise, they’ve got another one wrong. Our forecast remains that earnings and revenue growth will only pick up speed from here. We expect GDP growth to surpass 5% by June of next year. Could even happen by the end of this year, folks, as an end result of Trump 2.0. Again, the BBB, these great trade deals, roaring 2020s all powered by an innovation revolution that is really just now in the very early innings market today again gave back some, not a lot though. Our biggest loser on the day was the Russ 2000 was down 610 to 1%. Dow Jones is down a half percent. SB 500 down 3 10.

Nasdaq down 4/10 and the semis which of course are the most important sector to watch. They are a true market leader up another half percent today. We shared the chart this morning relative strength chart, the SP 500 from the birth of quantitative easing in 2008, 2009. If you just, if you just want to say, let me check one thing, give me one indicator to know whether I should be long stocks in cash or short the market. It’s this, it’s a semiconductors semi rolling stream chart to the SP100 and right now it’s gone parabolic. No surprise there. Nvidia hitting all time high every day, truly going parabolic. But Nvidia, we, we, we’ve only owned this stock for, okay, this stock in the three months that we’ve owned it.

This is just over three April, we bought it April 25th. So just, just over three months. We’re up 68% in three months. So I annualize that out. Right? We’re looking at annualized. You’re looking at better than 200% gains. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but yeah, sure could Rich Ross, I think, I think he’s our favorite technician on Wall street with Evercore. His price target is 250.

[00:04:37]:
We think, we think it’s going higher than that. That’s his price target for this year. So again, a lot of reasons to own the semis. A lot of reasons to own Nvidia here the world’s largest company with a valuation of $4.3 trillion. It’ll be 5 trading for long and then probably 6. And because that’s the, that’s the bull market we’re in folks. It just is. What else today I want to someone to spend a minute on this interest rate.

So again the Fed started meeting today. Tomorrow at 2 o’ clock Eastern we’ll get the fed minutes and then 30 minutes after that we’ll get the none other than Jay Powell, the rock star himself money printing rock star at 2:30 Eastern Standard Time. If you follow Jay Powell much, you know a couple things when he speaks the Marcus tendon nosedive now it got a little better but not a lot. He is aware of it now. So I think he’s trying to be a little less negative for him to do with, with President Trump in office. I think it’s something, something he has to fight frankly pretty hard. There’s no love lost there at all especially after their, their recent get together as they’re wearing hard hats and Trump put them on the spot for their ridiculous expenditures of the rebuilding of the Federal Reserve buildings there. Right.

But listen Powell’s going to talk tomorrow right after the statement comes out and today what do we see? Interest rates fell 10 year yield today fell 20 basis points today 2/10 of 1%. Excuse me, down 2%. So I’m trying to say at, down at 4, 4.33% is the 10 year yield. Easy for me to say. Again we’ve been in a bit of a trading range here. Well we’re well off the highs of the high yields of the year. I’m looking at a chart right now and I tell you, you know our view has been that the 10 year yield is going to continue to plummet. Here again the, the, the high from January is the 52 week high as well of 4.8%.

[00:06:36]:
Again right now a 4.33%. If you look at the chart on this it’s pretty interesting. It’s a pretty tight triangle pattern here is developing. It’s going to break out one way or the other. Right. And was also significant is today it just fell the 10 year yield fell below the 2020, fell below the 200 day moving average and again we, we, we think rates are headed a lot lower. It’s one of the reasons we’re bullish especially on interest rate sensitive groups. That’s why tech has been skyrocketing.

It’s why housing is making a comeback. We think that’s an early story. We like that a lot. And of course, lower rates are also good for precious metals and miners. We love that group as well. So we’ll be paying attention to that tomorrow. There should be a couple of Fed members that will dissent. That’s of course we won’t know tomorrow that are very tight lipped about this.

But I’ll be surprised if at least one of these, if not both of both of these dissent tomorrow and say that rates should be cut. They tend to act unanimously. We’ll see what happens tomorrow. But I will tell you, with the actions today in the bond market, I do expect that the market expects at least the Fed to be dovish tomorrow. And again, we got a lot of data coming out this week as well. We got jobs data on Friday. Jobs market’s been very strong so we’ll have to see how that plays out, Tom. But I’ll get all eyes on the Fed meeting tomorrow.

[00:07:59]:
What else today again, August, October is not a great time frame. U.S. china trade talks. There’s a little bit of, a little bit of risk in the market from this because as Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said today, listen, it’s up to the President whether or not we can extend this pause. If not, then we’re going back to whatever Trump decides for tariffs against China. Based on the friendly nature of what their, of how their talks appear to be going. I’d be surprised if Trump pulls that card. But it’s Trump and you just don’t know what he’s going to do.

All right, let’s take a look under the hood today. And again this is we’ve had a bit of a slew of these not great days from internals. Again, there are a lot of people out there talking about the negativity regarding seasonality that’s starting, I mean within two days. Right. Even this time frame here is not a great time frame. And talking about the second half of July into August. Internals today were soft. Nasdaq 2 to 1 negative on advanced decline actually had more advancers than declines on the NYSE.

Volume today was negative as well. 59.1% down volume for NYSE 61.3% down volume for NASDAQ. Again that’s nothing at all. Barely missed there. Oh, here we go. New 52 highs, lows again. This is another win today. Starting to pile these up a little bit.

[00:09:22]:
Been a long time. So we’ve had more lows than highs. Today we had 289 stocks hitting a new 52 week high. Just 125 hitting a new 52 week low in our commodity watch today. Excuse me sector wash today we had four sectors finished lower. Seven, excuse me, four finished higher. Seven finished lower. Led to the downside, not a lot anyway Frankly.

Industrials down 1.1% to the downside to the upside. Real estate up 1.7%. Again those lower rates helping real estate today in a commodity watch again gold has been a bit soft here. Again lower rates are certainly going to help. The dollar has been more. Your bond has been destroyed under Trump’s presidency as he wants to happen, as he wants to continue to see happen. We’re in a long term decline for the bear market for the dollar. But again this is by design to counter a lot of the non tariff trade manipulation taking place which of course is interest rates and currency manipulation by the countries against the US So Trump wants to see the DOL continue to fall.

We think that’s exactly what’s going to happen. Gold today up a half percent at 3,383. It’s up 16 bucks an ounce. Silver also up a Half percent today, up 60 cents. Announced an ounce at 38.34. Copper today up a nine tenths of 1% at 566 a pound. Crude oil, big move today in crude oil. West Texas Intermediate up $2.55 a barrel.

[00:10:48]:
That’s a 3.8% move higher. We like this group, we really like energy stocks here. Last trade in crude oil $69.26 again part of this trade deal with the EU. They got to buy over $700 billion of energy products from the US and who are they going to buy from? Russia or U.S. right. How about your, how about your ally, how about your buddy US? Trump pulled off another coup here with this EU trade deal in crude oil today trading at 69, 26 a barrel by the end of the day. Bitcoin been soft. You know, weird jobs.

Just looking to chart on this again. Uh, two weeks ago bitcoin hit extreme overbought on steroids. A bit less than that but just been coming off that, working off those levels, consolidating here right now we’re about what is this $6,000 below all time highs. Last trade 117,320 again this is, this is, this is, this is healthy, this is healthy consolidation action. It’s what you want to see. It gives you your base and kind of your, your baseline and a floor for the next big move higher is how the energy builds. It’s how the weak hands leave. And the smart hands continue to stack that bitcoin.

All right, folks, that’s it for today. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after we close.