In today's episode, Kip dives into the latest action on Wall Street, spotlighting the relentless buying of every market dip and the powerful trends shaping the current bull market. Kip breaks down the ongoing leadership from tech stocks, especially semiconductors and Nvidia, now the world’s most valuable public company and covers why small caps finally got their moment to shine. He also unpacks the Atlanta Fed’s bullish GDP forecast, the ever-present influence of retail investors and millennials, and the political wrangling in Washington over budget and tax bills. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back to the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. If you were on the podcast yesterday, you might recognize some similarities here today because the market today, again, just like yesterday, opened slightly lower. Actually yesterday was down. You know, we’re down a couple 300 points in the Dow Jones NASDAQ down close to 200 in the morning. And then the same repeating pattern that’s been happening from the April 7th bear market lows.

And folks, it was a real market repeating pattern of here comes a rally caps right? Every, every dip in the morning, every, every lower open is being bought. Not some, all of them are being bought. And what’s happening with the internals? What’s happening with the leadership? Semis are leading the again, this is again a repeating pattern. Semi, semis led higher again today. Semis led tech. Actually the small caps even got some, some run room today, up 1.6%, which is good to see. They, they’ve really been battered. But again, it’s these repeating patterns that we see that make up what we’ve called down for, for a long time.

[00:01:12]:
Textbook bull market action. And it just keeps happening. Got some great news from the Atlanta Fed yesterday. By now you probably heard about this. Their, their estimate for, for Q2 second quarter GDP growth is 4.6% from the Atlanta Fed. Remember last quarter at one point they were estimating, they said the first quarter GDP was going to be -4 and a half percent. Right now they’re at + 4.6. What is going on at the Atlanta Fed? Not always the biggest Trump fans in the world just bringing it.

But that’s good to see because again, we’ve been a broken record on this since we wrote the big bribe. It was in 2022. Now, almost three years ago. We were riding it over three years ago. Took about a year to write it, research it and write it. But we were talking then about the big bribe, about the five mega trends that are in place that will power this US economy and our markets into 2030 at minimum. Likely, frankly, probably a lot longer than 2030. It doesn’t mean we won’t have shakeouts.

We might have another bear market. Don’t think so. We think the lows are in not only for this year, but the lows are in for the rest of Trump’s presidency. And now these primary mega trends are kicking in. Innovation revolution. That’s at the heart of what we’re seeing here. This productivity boom, this corporate Earnings surge, we think ultimately again, we think the Atlanta Fed’s right. We think GDP growth is headed to 10% plus.

[00:02:42]:
That’s what Cathie Wood’s team has been saying now for the last three years as well. They’re actually even further on the limb that we are. They think it’s gonna, we’re gonna have 10 plus percent GDP growth for a decade again because of innovation and what it means. So look, we’re seeing this every day in the market. It doesn’t matter how many, how many bears there are. It doesn’t matter how short they are. It doesn’t matter how many institutions are out of the market. They can, they can, they can crap talk this market all they want to.

But there’s been one group of investors been right from, from jump street on this and that’s been retail investors. Millennials have been right. They’ bought every dip. They’ve been right to do so. And now we have Trump. That we’ll see. You know, he got, there may be a few brewing here with Elon Musk and Trump, he called Musk today, called Trump’s tax bill an abomination and was pretty, pretty. He’d been fighting, he had been biting his tongue.

If you’d see him in interviews, that changed today. And Trump, you know, got into world wars with the Senate, namely Rand Paul, who doesn’t want to see the debt limit increased and Trump gave it to him. So the battles are really happening. This budget bill and this tax bill in the budget bill, that’s not a done deal yet. It’s going to have to change quite a bit in the Senate before it goes back to the House. Do I think it’s going to get done? I do. And I think they’ve got to find a way to get more cuts. That’s really what we’re seeing here.

[00:04:13]:
And I think Trump’s probably playing both sides against each other, you know, and he’s in the middle as a deal maker, which is what he is. That’s, that’s really, if they can’t get a deal done, he wants it done by July 4th. It just slides into, into August, September, now we’re talking about that could be a problem. But in, in the short term, look, all we’ve got to really be concerned about in the short term is tariffs. And I think the mark, you see what the markets are saying now, every dip is being bought on tariff news because no one believes this is going to get ugly. Everybody believes the worst case scenario, we’ve already gotten rid of that Right. And that’s what the market’s telling you with these day after day of fighting off these sell offs on on bad news and rallying. The market’s telling you it’s going higher.

And again what led today? Exactly what you want to see lead the semis today again up one point. Let me get this right estimate to somebody. TF Day up over 2% today. All right. Nasdaq up 810 of 1% again Russ 2000 small caps up 1.6%. SPF 100 and Dow Jones both up 5/10 of 1%. Another strong day. And guess what else led Nvidia happens to be one of our holdings.

Right folks, we now own for everyone that owns Nvidia with us, we now own the most valuable company on the planet today. Nvidia is a little bit of yo yo action with Microsoft today. Nvidia once again passed. Microsoft is the most valuable public company on the planet. But that’s the leadership you want to see. We also saw something very interesting today. As Tyler pointed out the pull call ratio. This is I almost didn’t even check it today because I just figured it’d be low again because the market’s been rallying people buying more calls than puts.

[00:05:58]:
That didn’t happen today. Today the pull call ratio spent most of the day above a 0.9 and it had a spike of over to 105. That’s with this kind of action we’ve seen. That’s interesting especially with the internals we had today which are pretty solid. I’ll get to those in just a moment. But again this is a repeating pattern themes we’re seeing now we’ve got Atlanta Fed saying that hey, the economy’s hot. Now the downside to that may be that rates may stay elevated for a while but the markets just don’t care. The 10 year yields at 4.46%.

The housing market could sure use lower rates. Without question a lot of homes are building up. But as we said, you know, for now, for a long time the very last thing that we have to worry about economically speaking is another housing meltdown, another 2008. We do not have to worry about anyone that says we do. They don’t know what they’re just don’t know what they’re talking about. And here’s why. It’s impossible, I’ll tell you it’s impossible to have a housing prices in this country when 40% of homeowners own their home without a mortgage on that home also with net equity in homes is also at an all time high, it’s impossible to have a true housing crash slash crisis in this kind of a setup. And that really speaks for most of the economy itself.

So, you know, again, the market, we think the market’s speaking loudly and the market, we’re in a little bit of a trade range here. We still haven’t broken up to all time highs, but that’s coming. There’s a magnet on this market. Back to all time highs, not unlike it was in 2020 for the pandemic year. And once we got back to new all time highs that happened between June and for NASDAQ and 8-1-500, once we got back to all time highs, it was like a slingshot, it was like engaged and the markets just, just went parabolic. So I think that once we get back to all time highs again, which we absolutely see happening, then I think that there won’t. If you’re short, what are you going to, what are you going to say? What are you, what are you hanging your hat on if you’re short? If you’re not a believer, I don’t, I don’t know what that is anymore. Economy’s in great shape.

[00:08:10]:
We also had again two of these breath thrusts. We talked this yesterday. It’s so rare to have both of these in a single month. We got both as a graph breath thrust and this wide breadth thrust in the month of May. That’s only happened eight times in history going back to 1957. Only had a combination of these two breath thrusts in the same month. Only eight times going back to 19 and again 1957 when this happens. And again, it’s very rare.

The markets keep climbing over three months. Six months and 12 months are up 100% of the time over all those time frames. Average gain over six months is 13.8%. Average gain over the next year is 24.6%. We’re seeing a lot of this kind of data, a lot of analytics like this that are pointing to higher prices. And folks, if we’re sitting here reporting this to you, all these investment programs that invest based on AI, all these hedge funds that are all, you know, algo driven, this is baked in the cake for them. Where’s the buying coming from? That’s where the buying’s coming from. These, these algorithmic trading programs are investing on one belief system.

We’re going higher and every dip is a buy. And so I just think it’s going to be, you know, it’s not that we won’t have a bad two or Three days here and there. But we haven’t seen it so far, have we? Every tip has been about has been a gift, every dip has been a buy. And this is the pattern that’s now repeating and looks, looks, looks like it’s going to continue to. All right, let’s take a look at the hood today. Again good internals today. Ben’s decline both Nasdaq NYSE positive by two to one again with a high put call ratio. It’s a little strange.

[00:09:51]:
Volume today solidly positive. 71% positive for NASDAQ, 69% positive for NYSE. We also had what is this about 100 more stocks hitting a 52 week high to hit 52 week low again. Very good readings today and our sector watch study also solid 8 of 11 sectors finished high on the day. Not a lot of action anyway but the action was where you want it. Technology stocks led the way higher up 1.5%. Energy oil looks like it’s bottomed. We just went long.

Energy stocks again today in a leveraged ETF for a very portfolio that was up 1% today. We like the charts. We what we really like are these relative strength charts. We do a lot of work in this area for anything that’s in the ground. So it applies to miners of all, any all areas. And you look at the way gdx, the gold miner ETF has led gold higher. It was just telegraphing that a parabolic move higher was coming. And now we’re starting to hit that early stages by the way still.

And now we’re seeing that same kind of leadership action where energy stocks have been leading oil for 11 months. And so that’s, that’s a bullish sign for the group that tells us that yeah, the lows are in both for oil and natural gas likely and the energy stocks are a buy here. The worst case scenario is not going to happen. We’re not going to get down to $50 oil and so we think we get higher lows there as well. So again, good day today. Both the internals and the sector watch in our commodity watch today. A little bit of profit taking today. The goal today was down 19 bucks an ounce at 3377.

[00:11:27]:
That’s I put this one at 100 and call it $130 an ounce below all time high for gold. Silver today after just having a monster run was flat today but still at 34.69 an ounce. Copper today up a tenth of a percent at 486 a pound. Copper’s had a Nice little run here. Crude oil today, up another 90 cents a barrel. It’s up 1.4%. Last trade here, 6342. And finally on the day, bitcoin, you know, it’s been consolidating.

It’s found a real floor. It looks like here, you know, just above 100. Right now we’re 158. As I said yesterday, I would, I, I would, I just wouldn’t be surprised at all if we came in tomorrow morning and Bitcoin was 130,000. Just wouldn’t surprise me. The, the, the, the level of demand, the, that is coming in for bitcoin. I don’t know why you’d sell. That’s the thing.

I don’t know why. I’m talking about, you know, retail investors here and there. I don’t know why any big money would sell here. There are a lot of folks trading this. We get that. But the long term, the Hodlers, they’re not, they’re not selling. I would say at least half of all bitcoin that’s being purchased now is being put away. It’s just real estate that you never sell.

[00:12:47]:
So this is the environment where you have explosive moves. And we’re just recommending again, we’re, we’re long bitcoin, a couple of bitcoin related companies as well. I think this is a very bullish primary pattern is in place here. The primary trend that’s going to continue to lead bitcoin higher. Okay, folks, that’s it for the day. Hope you had a great day. Even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.