In today's episode, Kip discusses the continued strength of the current bull market, market expectations, and how Tesla and its innovative strategies are shaking up the auto industry. We'll touch on the Federal Reserve's potential moves, the role of semiconductors, small caps, and the invaluable insights from our Fear and Greed Index. And yes, of course, Bitcoin's trajectory as it forms a solid base around $100,00. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope your day was a good today. Let’s get right to it. Gonna be a bit of a short podcast today. We’ve got some meetings to go into here in just a few minutes, but it’s some important themes we’re gonna talk about here. By the way, a couple things.

Number one, I’m gonna be on Wayne Allyn Roots new show The Root Reaction. I think this morning’s been on the show, I think about six months now. And I believe it’s number two on Real America’s Voice. So again, it’s 10pm Eastern tonight. Hope you join us. Always a blast doing this is Wayne, as I wrote this morning in our letter. And I’m going to try to give Wayne a little bit of heat on this tonight because look, if you know our relationship, you know, we’re, we’re basically brothers from another mother.

[00:00:46]:
We go back over 20 years and we, we text all day throughout the day and just love the guy. He’s just salt of the earth and, but he’s also hyper negative. He’s just been so negative because, you know, he understands the dangers to this country that we’ve, that we’ve been under. What would have happened had Trump not won. So Wayne’s been fighting tooth and nail when I had it pretty easy. I just have to make money in the stock market. You know, I’m not trying to save America. We’re trying to make money here.

It’s a different story. And I get that. But now Wayne has flipped completely. Wayne has gone to now hyper, bullish, hyper positive on both the economy and the market because of course, because we now have Trump 2.0. And that’s the theme. I’ve been talking about one macro theme today because I don’t know that this could be reinforced enough because I tell you, this is this people are starting to talk about animal spirits. When you’re hearing it more analysts are starting to raise their earnings estimates and their price targets for the various indexes. So, yeah, this is becoming more popular.

But I’m telling you, not right now. Not nearly enough. People are talking about this is the way I believe they should be because this bull market started over two years ago. Okay. It’s been powerful. Markets are discounting mechanism. They anticipate, they’ve been telling us what’s coming. It’s the red pilling of America.

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This now met the Trump 2.0. And we understand how powerful In Trump’s first term, the Trump economic miracle was his tax cuts, deregulation and tariffs. Again, we’re going to get much more of that. The difference, of course, being this time, Trump’s got his people in place. Trump learned from the first run and he’s got his. He’s not to fight the battles he had to fight before, which is going to free up more time and energy for him to accomplish what he wants to, for the, for the economy. And in case you don’t know this, let me tell you, Donald Trump is addicted to stock market performance. That’s what he knows is important.

It’s what people watch. They got the 401ks invested in retirement plans and college funds invested in it. This matters. You have a strong economy and a strong stock market. Magic happens throughout the entire economy. And so Trump watches this. It’s important to him. And again, he’s going to have all, he does have, all the right people in place.

From Treasury Secretary, we’ll see if Jay Powell plays ball to up and down the line, these are free market capitalists that Wayne has put in place. Wayne, that Trump has put maybe in the future, that Trump has put in place. And the combination of the Trump economic miracle and the innovation revolution and what we’re calling the Trump Doctrine really is what this is. That’s the macro theme that we’ve been writing about and talking about is that the ability for Americans to conduct their business without the government as their enemy, without the government standing in their way, now getting out of our way. And yeah, we got to know where the lines are. You know, if you’re, if you’re running a business without morals and you’re running a business without taking care of your people, you know, you’re not going to last long, especially in today’s world anyway, you know, because of social media and the Internet. If you’re running a company that is not putting out a quality product or not servicing your customers, you don’t have a long lifespan anyway. So that kind of, that kind of settles itself.

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But for the regulators to get them out of our way and to let us go, go, go, build, build, build. That’s the animal spirits. I think not enough people have embraced and talked about enough yet, because this is what’s going to take. Cathy Wood has nailed this exactly a little bit ahead of her time. We call it the innovation revolution. She calls it the AI Revolution. We think it’s much more than just AI. It is much more than just AI.

But what she’s nailed is the macro theme of where economic growth is going. This has been something we’ve been talking about to you now for a couple of years. She’s saying GDP growth of better than 10%, maybe for two decades. Right. If she’s half right. And that’s what we’re saying. She, we’re saying we’re going to have GDP growth of better than 5% for a very long time. Much more than just the roaring 2000 and twenties.

But if she’s right again, if she’s just. If we’re right, if we’re, if she’s half right, that means we’re right at 5%, then I can tell you corporate earnings estimates are way too low. Stock market estimates are way too low. It will, it will wind up being that our target of Dow Jones 100,000 right now at 44,200. Our target of Dow Jones 100,000 will be too low. Our target of NASDAQ 40,000 is 19:6 now will be too low. And so this is what we said. It’s time to stay locked in.

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Look, you’ve been here with us. You know what our message has been. There’s never been a better time to make money as an entrepreneur, as an investor. There’s never been a better time to be American. This is going to be a golden age. Trump. This is what Trump has called it. He refers to this often.

So you know what he’s focused on. And look, we’re all going to stay locked in here. It won’t be straight up. We’ve had two days now where the markets have been a little bit ugly. But again, that’s nothing really more than this rotational thing that’s taking place. The markets have hit overbought levels. Some of our index trading at extreme overbought. That’s NASDAQ trading in extreme overbought.

It doesn’t mean, it doesn’t mean, you know, we have to have a big drawdown here. But what it means is it’s just a time to use discipline. You know, this is not the time to put a whole lot of new. It’s just not. They’re trying to put a whole lot of new money to work. Unless there’s only always qualifiers. Unless we’re talking about Tesla, unless we’re talking about bitcoin, because these are both going so much higher on bitcoin. Look, it was up another 3.2% today, hit a high of 409, closed at 402.

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Stock is essentially melt. It is, it’s melting up. And you know, they, they announced yesterday that their Their new car, the Model Q is going to be coming out. What’s cool about this? This is going to be their thousand, around thirty thousand dollar car which just amazing features. Talking about EV range for this, for these, for this car of five hundred kilometers, right. So better than four hundred miles range, which is pretty extraordinary, has been one of the drawbacks for people that is who wants to get in an EV and get stuck on the road, you know, because you can only go a couple of hundred miles. Some of these cars only do that now we’re talking about over 400 miles. The reservations to, to, to there was.

I’m looking at GameStop earnings just came out, third quarter profit. Stock is trying to bounce here. That’s not why we own it really, but good for them. But the reservation of course has been for range and for pricing and now both of those are becoming irrelevant from a buyer’s point of view. I can tell you, you know, I’m in the process of trying to buy my first Tesla. Quick story on that. My first plan was to lease. Went through that process, then ran the numbers and it just didn’t make sense.

I like to buy, I like to own my stuff. Anyway, second was I was going to just, you know what, just let me buy the new, I want to buy a brand new Model S Plaid, which is kind of their top of the line fastest car. 0 to 60 in 1.99 seconds. Right. And it just really is a beautiful vehicle. And again, I don’t like, I don’t, I don’t like buying new cars. I don’t, that’s not, I’ve only bought one new car in my life and I was looking at the value of a first, you know, of a 2023 Tesla Model S Plaid versus a brand new. And the, you know, you’re losing like $35,000 in depreciation and just when you drive it off the lot, I don’t, I just don’t do that.

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So I canceled that order. So you know, you know when you cancel an order, you lose 250 bucks is what you put down, but that’s it. So now I’m back looking for 2022, 2023. Somebody’s got a Model S Plaid. 2022, 2023. Let me know because, because I am going to find that vehicle. It’s just taking some time. It’s a hot market, of course.

But from talking to the people at the Tesla distributorship in the showroom, they said something really interesting about a month ago, I think I said this on this Podcast I’m not sure talking to the guy about the genius that is Elon Musk and what he’s done. First he got all the environmentalists, the leftist, really the far leftists if you will. First he and they, you know, they’re like, oh this is, this is what best for the planet and for climate change. And so yeah, everyone should buy a Tesla. And they did. And now he switched Neil on switched teams. Now he’s been red pilled, now he’s on Team Trump of course played a major role in Trump getting elected. Very major role.

Right along with RFK Jr and Tulsi Gabbard and many others. And now the environmentalists and the leftists are like, you know, they’re sitting on Musk. And now Musk is what they told me in the stories. They said the red pilling of America has been really good for Tesla sales. That was his exact quote. And he said, he said people that ordinarily wouldn’t be looking at a Tesla are now buying aggressively. And I think that’s another reason the stock is going up. But this Model Q is big.

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I’ll tell you a quick story on that too, if that winds up being the name of it. The Q, it’s just another punk from Elon. Because if you know the Tesla story and I battled these people for about a decade, they’ve got, they’ve gone dormant now. But you remember they put a Q on the end of the symbol. I’m sure most of you know this and the Q this when it appears that in the stock symbol represents a company going through bankruptcy. And so you know, this is, this, this was their big thing, you know, Tesla Q. Tesla Q, right. Gonna go into bankruptcy, you fools that own the stock.

And so the whole time I’m going, I don’t know what you’re talking about but do you not understand who Elon Musk is? You not see what he’s building here? Do you not know the future? Which futures ev. It is futures EV and solar and nuclear. I’m not a huge solar fan. That’s going to change as the technology continues to improve and of course nat gas. But anyways, the combination of all these reasons the Q is going to be I think extraordinarily popular. I hope it, they do call it the queue because it’s basically it’s going to put almost every auto company out of business. If you understand what’s happening with the robo taxis and where Tesla is taking the entire planet. When it comes to transportation, traditional car companies, they’re Trying to compete on the EV side.

As you can tell they’re not succeeding. They’re shutting down operations, scaling them back to a major degree. But what’s going to happen next I believe and I’m hearing rumors of this now and we’ve been saying this for a while because it makes so much sense. If you’re Ford, if you’re gm, what’s the one thing, if you’re any auto manufacturer, us or global, what should you do? You should partner with Tesla on the full self driving technology. You should partner with them, sign some kind of a royalty deal or what do you call it in that business so that Tesla gets paid for every FSD installed in these vehicles and that way they can compete otherwise they’re going to be in real trouble. And that’s not Elon Musk goal. You know he open sources pretty much everything. I don’t know about Tesla but you know like with SpaceX open source and you know he really wants to make, he really wants everyone to be able to improve every, every, every, every part of the US economy, global economy by open sourcing all of his work which is just extraordinary.

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I don’t think many people talk about this or about it. It really is extraordinary. And that’s how these companies are going to survive and even have profitability going forward. And I think that’s what’s going to happen here. I think it’s another reason the stock is going up. There are a lot of reasons, aren’t there? You know it’s not just the queue if this fsd. I believe once the first announcement comes out you’re going to see them fall like dominoes. Every, every manufacturer, auto manufacturer on the planet is going to want to partner with Tesla.

It’s going to be extraordinarily good news for the stock price. And then you have all the other things. Optimus Robotics. Optimus and they’re obviously their battery and a storage division and then EVs and of course autonomous driving AI. You know it’s an unbelievable story. It’s the one stock that everyone should own for the innovation revolution. Okay markets real quick. Dow Jones today finishing down pretty much.

I think we closed about the lows of the day on the Dow Jones down 154. That’s only a drop of 3/10 of 1%. This back to back days of declines. SVF hundred down 3/10 1% as well. Russ 2000 down 4/10 1%. We are looking very closely. We own several small caps. We also have a position in three time leveraged small cap etf.

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We’re looking to get more aggressive in this space. I think 2025 is going to be extraordinary year for small caps. We want to make sure we’re fully positioned even, even more aggressively than we already are. We have some thoughts on that by the way and for parabolic program as well. That will be our new position. We’re very close to initiating that buy recommendation now. But small caps Today we’re down 4 cents 1% and NASDAQ down down a quarter of a percent, down 49 points. Also the thing, this is the thing that concerns me.

If I kip what concerns you the most? Well yeah, we are robot never like to see that because this is when bad things tend to happen. But we had seasonality, right? Extraordinarily bullish. We have 7 trillion cash on the sidelines. Animal spirits returning. This money’s coming into the markets. It’s hugely bullish with Trump. So the fear in greed index now is down to. Tyler and I have just talked about this fear.

Green X is down to 48. All right. It’s, it’s, it’s closer to fear than it is to greed. Pretty extraordinary. Percent of again Tyler just is a encyclopedia of knowledge. The percent of S500 above the 50 moving average is 53.8%. We won’t be selling until it’s 90%. It’s 53.8.

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So you’re seeing some churn that’s taking place in the market, right? You’ve seen these rotations take place. All this does is extend the bull market. Short term it might create some volatility, might create some short term pauses or losses. But now GameStop now up 5% after hours on earnings at 2930. We have a position in that. I think it’s going to be a huge winner. Financial engineering folks, this is the age we live in. It’s not just bitcoin, it’s not just micro strategy.

I think GameStop’s about to do very, something very interesting with their almost $5 billion in cash. But all of these readings we’re just talking about are pointing to one thing. This market is not getting overheated. That’s what these rotations do. That’s what these short term pauses do. And again this just extends the life. This is textbook market action. That’s the one thing you need to know.

This is don’t be afraid of what you’re seeing when we have these pauses or these shakeouts. This is tech. This is how bull markets are supposed to work. In a healthy market Fashion. But if you had to ask me the one thing that concerns me it is the semiconductors from this point of view, the semis today we’re down 2.4%. We are aggressively long the semis and am I concerned? No, because we’re just above, we tagged again today the 200 day moving average. Now we don’t want to see the semis go below the 200 day moving average for more than about a week. If that happens, we will start getting a little more concern.

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Might even put a hedge on. And because the semis lead, they lead the Nasdaq, Nasdaq leads the broad market. And we are again, we’re in the innovation revolution. The semis are leading that, you know, but again, you know, these stocks have had such an amazing run now the market essentially isn’t falling. Nvidia, which is down a new another 2 1/2% today, it’s only down 17 points from its all time high. So again we’re not concerned here. We do want to see the 200 day hold. But, but that’s, that’s really, I think most market watchers that follow it closely like we do would tell you that’s the one tell because you don’t want to see the semis leading lower.

But again that 200 day moving average is important and we, the chart, the chart patterns held up just fine. Not concerned. I would rather see it go in the other direction. But if you had to ask me, that’s my biggest concern. It’s not a big concern by the way, but that’s just simply my biggest concern. What else today? All right, you know what, I do have to run here in just a minute. Let’s go and get to the internals here. And by the way, hope you’re all having a great Christmas season here.

You’ve been in the malls. It’s getting a little crazy out there already, folks. The economy’s on fire. Economy’s on fire. My wife and I were, Cindy and I were out last night and you know, you can’t find a place to park. All the stores are getting jammed and that’s with so many people shopping online. It is going to be crazy. It’s going to be a phenomenal retail season and that’s the only reason interest rates might stay elevated.

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I still don’t think they will because again we’re going to see deflation, not inflation. We get the CPI tomorrow by the way. That’ll be interesting. It’s another source of a little anxiety, not from us but from some market watchers and of course the Fed next week will cut rates again. They will cut rates. We’ve said that all along and so many people said no, they’re going to stop cutting rates. No, we told you they would. They’ll cut by a quarter of a point next week and then we’ll see what happens next year.

Again, Jay Powell and Trump do have an adversarial relationship. So we’ll have to see how that plays out. That’s, that’s probably my biggest macro concern is what the Fed might do to try to rein Trump in. But you know, it’s not a big concern. It is something we’re watching. The internals today were not good, but they also weren’t terrible. Both nasdaq, NYSE advanced decline, both pot, both negative but not by 2 to 1. About 1.

Both negative by about 1.7 to 1. Volume today was slightly negative on NASDAQ and 2 to 1 negative on NYSE. We did have more stocks advanced today. More stocks here today. They hit a 52 week low. It was pretty close, but that was a win. This was a negative day. However, net negative day for the internals in our sector.

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Watch today again, not a pretty picture here. Eight sectors lower, three higher. Upside communications surgeons of 2.6%. That was really the only sector that was hired today by any measure at all. And real estate today was down 1.6%. Tech down 1.3%. A couple of home builders had somewhat negative news. I think that’s very company specific, not industry specific.

We’re in the early stages of a long term housing boom. I don’t think that’s, we were saying it two years ago. People called us crazy. We say it now. It’s pretty much what everybody’s saying. Again, everybody is getting bullish. Everyone’s getting bowled up. That’s the one thing we got to keep an eye on.

You, you get sentiment too frothy. But again, during greed index at 48. So how can you say that right, kid? All right. In our commodity watch we had gold today of a big so bizarre because gold’s up 35 up big yesterday. Gold today up 1.3% to 2721 an ounce. But the miners doing nothing. If I could make sense of it, I probably, I would tell you. I think that mining companies, mining executives are not the sharpest tool in the shed.

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A lot of these guys hedge against their own resource development which is a horrible way to build a commodities business. But they kind of had to do it because the industry suffered for so long. They didn’t want to go out of business but it’s also impacting their upside. But look, mining costs have gone up because inflation has impacted everything. But I think all of these bugaboos are going to slowly fade away. This bull market in the, in, in precious metals and miners. You have to trust me when I tell you this. I know this industry pretty well.

I think this bull market will not even really kick in until the miners, especially the junior miners start going. And they’re not. Now they were both up today but again GDX was up 4/10 1%. Gold up 4.3. That should not be the case. The miners today should have been like 3, 4%. So that underperformance is a little concerning. But again the chart looks good.

We tested the 200 day on GDX and it’s just going to take time. But that’s what tells me that this bull market has not even started yet. Because this, this group won’t get frothy and toppy action until the miners really GameStop now over 30 of 8%. This group won’t get frothy until the miners start leading by a big margin and hit all time highs. They still yet to do the all time highs in 2011 if you can believe it. So again we’re continuing to build positions there with dollar cost averaging because it’s going to pay off and it’s going to pay off in a big way. We’ll make fortune in this group. We’ve been saying that now for a couple years.

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Those gains have started to take place but not nearly where they’re going to head. Silver today also up but just a bit. 4 cents announced at 3265. Copper that was flat at 427 a pound. Crude oil. Crude oil up 10 cents a barrel at 68.47 and 5 on the day. Bitcoin. Ian, we know you’ve heard our story.

We’re sticking to it. The longer the bitcoin bases just below 100 or right around 100. The. The now, right now. Right now we’re at 96. 8. Okay. There’s no damage done here but the longer it trades I’d say between 90 and 190.

Between 102. The longer that happens the more solid the base is going to be and that will act as a propellant for the move to 150,000. Our goal, our price target had been a hundred thousand from the beginning of the year. We got that. We’ll be at 150 before long. I think again once this base holds. And then we have a true breakout. With 100 now serving as support instead of resistance.

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Which is doing now. Then you’ll see. I think a rocket ship move to 150. And again. Our cycle high remains 250,000 for Bitcoin. All right, folks. Hey, always appreciate you. Listen, hope you had a great day and even better night.

We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.