In today's episode, Kip takes a deep dive into the market action on the week and the latest trends that you need to know for this young bull market. We will also cover the outlook for sectors like housing, the energy market, and precious metals. Plus, an in-depth look at the psychology of bull markets, hot money, and market cycles. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because The market is closed. Good Friday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you all had a great day today. Hope your week was special as well. Kind of a wild week we’ve had here. Hasn’t it been? Wednesday with a big dump and today with the big move higher, and it was a big move higher today.

Really solid all around. Not just by in a number count, but we saw it in leadership, we certainly saw it in the internals. And that’s a key point, I believe, because even when we’ve had this sell off, and remember, even with this rally today, which I’ll get more to in a minute, the semiconductors are still 14%. They’re up pretty solid today. The semis are down 14% below their all time highs, which were just, you know, less than two weeks ago. Okay, so it’s been a, this is the way this typically happens, isn’t it? We had extreme overbought on steroids. That’s our most overbought designation. And then, you know, it’s, it’s, as they say, it’s escalator up and elevator down.

And that’s what it was. These overbought, these overbought sell offs tend to take on a life of their own. And then you see a cascading selling pressure take place because there’s just a lot of hot money in this market. And the reason for that, I think this is a key distinction to understand the psychology of a bull market. And where we are in this bull market is you have all this hot money that comes in. It comes in late because it’s hot money, it’s nervous money. And so once the market starts to sell off, that nervous hot money is the first to go. Right? Last in LIFo, last in, first out.

[00:01:35]:
And that’s not the sign of a mature bull market. That’s not, that’s a sign of a very early bull market because there’s so many doubters. But the key point there is, that’s why buy the dip is such an important strategy to use, especially in new bull markets, because these dips are sharp, they’re painful, and then they’re just over. Now, I don’t know if that’s going to be the case here. It is summer seasonality and the analytics are not quite as positive as they were before. I frankly don’t think it’s going to matter. I think that this dip is going to be short lived. I think that’s going to be the theme of this bull market because this bull market has so much higher to go.

It’s just if we’re anywhere close to being accurate on our estimates for Dow Jones, going to 100,000, possibly by as early as 2030. When we first said that the Dow was 26,000, now it’s 40,000. So we’ve converted a few non believers. But if we’re anywhere close to being accurate, then these dips are going to be short lived. But again, the nature of a young bull market is this is what happens. So we think that’s important. Understanding psychology of where you are in a market cycle is really important and gives you, if you understand these cycles and where you are in a bull market, it really gives you confidence to use a more set approach to your investing methodology. And the one thing you don’t want to do, and this is what we really, we practice here, and we try to teach others to practice as well with our members, subscribers.

[00:03:05]:
As you know, if you’re with us, is we really, we really preach that when we get to extreme overbought levels, it’s not a sell signal. Not in this, not in a new bull market like this. Not that you don’t want to take profits from time to time as situations present themselves, but what you don’t want to do is buy at the highs, at those extreme overbought readings. That’s when you get hurt. That’s painful. But it’s so easy to do, isn’t it? It took me a long time to figure this out because the easiest time to buy is when the markets are screaming higher. It just feels safe. It feels easy.

Hey, I’m going to. Hey, look at this. It’s never going to stop going up. It doesn’t matter when you buy, just buy. It’s going to go higher. No, that’s not the way it works. That’s why we use the VR investing system. And that’s why using our momentum oscillators and understanding the nature of these extreme readings, both on the buy side and sell side, we’re going to cover that more in a moment because we just had our biggest buy signal in the semiconductors, which means the broad market.

We just got that last night. I shared that with our folks this morning. It is our number one tell, it’s our number one go to chart, and it’s our top market direction signal. We got the buy signal last night. So here we go today with the market screaming higher. Going to talk about that? You talk about this bitcoin conference that Trump is speaking at tomorrow, really big stuff happening here. Folks, 20,000 people at this bitcoin conference in Nashville, the largest bitcoin conference in the world. How it happened, why that’s not in Houston.

[00:04:42]:
Nashville is a great, great city. But anyway, congrats to them. Trump’s speaking there tomorrow. Tim Scott spoke this afternoon. Kathy Wood spoke this afternoon. Michael Saylor spoke this afternoon. Just to dynamite stuff. You can watch it.

Kip Herriage [00:04:55]:
Rumble is carrying it live. I think Trump, I wrote this morning, Trump is speaking today at 02:00 central time. I got that wrong. It’s tomorrow. I don’t know the time. Not going to give out more of that info. So I don’t think, I don’t know what time it is. My guess is it is at 03:00 Eastern tomorrow.

He is the, as I understand, is the final speaker of the conference. And, you know, again, very exciting times here. I’m going to tell you a little bit more. The rumor is that he’s going to talk about the possibility, if he’s re elected, the possibility of putting in a strategic bitcoin reserve like we have our strategic oil reserve, having strategic bitcoin reserve under the hands, under the ownership of the us government, meaning the us taxpayer. I think that’s really exciting. Bitcoin had a good day today. Right now it’s at 68,000. We’ll cover that more in a moment as well.

Let’s talk to the market about the markets first, and we’ll come back to some other key points today that we see taking place again by the dip, I think is without question, especially with what’s happening. The semis bottoming to the sb of 100. I think we found a really great sweet spot to buy in this market from Wednesday’s sell off. Dow Jones today finishing up a 1.6%. Also roast 2000 small caps also up 1.6% today. They were our leaders. SVF 100 up 1.1. But it’s big moves.

[00:06:19]:
Okay. Dow Jones up 654 points. SVF 100 up 1.1%. Nasdaq had a really good recovery day, up 176 points or 1%. And let me get a quick, quick refresh on the semis. Yeah, semi is good data also as well. Up 1.5% today. So I mean, this is textbook, right? Semis up one and a half percent.

Nasdaq of 1%. Semis lead Nasdaq, Nasdaq leads abroad market. That is how it works. That’s how it’s worked since the birth of quantitative easing in 2009. It’s very reliable. These are buy signals taking place. Make no mistake about it. These are buy signals.

So, you know, any chance, anytime you get a chance to buy the semi is down 14% in a couple of weeks. Okay. Hitting extreme oversold levels on many of our indicators. That’s a buy signal. And of course, tech. Tech as well. VIx today, Tyler shared a chart. We wrote this up.

What was it? Wednesday, yesterday morning, Tyler, pull up a, created a chart on the volatility index, or the VIX, and we share that chart with you. It rallied to exactly the trend line that’s been declared declining. Trend line has been in place for, I think, since the last four years, back to 2020. And it hit exactly that trend line the VIX did, and then begin moving lower from there, down another 11% today. So it’s very possible that we’ve already seen the lows. I think it’s probably likely we’ve seen the highs in the volatility index. I’m not great at picking individual days and market bottoms, but this feels like, feels like Wednesday was a bit of capitulation, and then we got a little more shakeout yesterday, and then again today it was off to the races. Because what happened today, well, you know what I can say it’s pretty confidently the Biden administration, in my opinion, the guiltiest culprit of my career when it comes to leaking economic information, doing it before, so giving it to their buddies, right to their friends in the financial universe.

[00:08:33]:
I don’t know who in the administration be doing it. Certainly wouldn’t be Joe Biden. He doesn’t know what the, he doesn’t know what the headline PCE is. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. He has no clue what that is. Of course, it should be somebody else linking it. But I’m certain that it happened because this happens time and again where the markets move in the direction of, in advance of the data. The markets move in direction of that data so they know in advance what the data is going to be.

And we saw it again today. Futures are already a big, before the data came out today, again, this is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Official title is the personal consumption expenditures price index. Who names these things? That’s a horrible name. That’s a horrible name. But on a monthly basis, you know, the data, the data was good. Came in exactly right on. Pretty much right on.

Estimates. Core year over year inflation at 2.6%, month over month at two tenths 1%, pretty much right in line with estimates. So, look, it’s just more evidence that inflation has moderated. Inflation is, is, is going in the right direction. I was on with Wayne Allen root last night on his new show, the Root reaction. And Wayne, he’s exactly right. We’re not talking about inflation. We’re getting back to the levels of two years ago.

And no one’s saying that when prices rise, they’re very sticky and it takes a very long time for them to go lower. But I think that is what’s going to happen here. This has been our case now for a while, and I think history is proving that we are right about this because we do have disinflation. This just means we have less inflation than we had last year. That’s all that means. We clearly have disinflation. That’s not. It’s not even arguable.

[00:10:16]:
If you try to argue that, you will not sound like a smart person. Okay, we clearly have disinflation for some reason. When I say that it tends to upset some people. I don’t know why that is. I’m not saying inflation. I’m not saying we have negative inflation. I’m not saying we have deflation, right? But I think we’re going to have deflation. And I think it’s because one of our primary themes of this innovation revolution and this disruption is taking place.

The automation of everything, if you will, is going to cause prices to continue to fall and maybe kind of radically so and so that would be pure deflation. And I think that we’re probably going to have that, you know, maybe in the next couple of years developing, you know, so that’s going to be a big positive for the economy and good. It’ll be a welcome gift for so many Americans that have been destroyed by this unbelievable biden inflation level. So good luck, kamala, trying to talk your way out of that one. Or the border crisis, right. As the border czar, which he clearly was, it’s crazy how the mainstream media will do anything to protect their chosen one, their candidate. It’s just complete propaganda. It is nauseating.

It’s the worst I’ve ever seen. Worst anyone’s ever seen it. This is russian level propaganda. And I don’t even know if I think they’d be proud. They would be jealous, I should say, of what we were able to do in this country with our media, which is just completely in the bag, uh, for the Dem party, because it’s the state party, of course. It’s really, there’s no Democrat party. It’s just this. It’s the state, it’s.

[00:11:53]:
It’s the elite, right? That, that’s, that’s that’s who’s running the show here and they’re protecting their own interests. I mean you could say that, uh, you know, they’re basically telling us we’re beating you and what are you going to do about it? You know, I think that’s, that’s really what they did with the assassination, Tiffany’s, Trump because now it’s just disappeared, no one’s even talking about it, it’s just gone, gone for the headlines, you know, again, you just can’t believe it’s happening. We got to get rid of this administration, that’s the bottom line. Well, I think America is in real trouble not to get off topic here, but anyway, so again, the market’s got off to a great start today and only built from there we didn’t finish at the highs today but you can’t complain with these gains, right?

As I shared a minute ago, the most important chart of this bull market is going back over 13th 2022 lows is this chart that I shared this morning of the semis, the relative strength chart semis to the SB 100 it’s our number one market timing signal and hit the lower trend line there’s a channel and again, if you’re with us, you know exactly what I’m talking about, why we share this chart with you all the time because it’s that important when this channel is almost a perfectly defined channel going back two years, again, relative strengthen semiconductors to sv 500, okay? Because the semis are, they lead in both directions and when you get to this top channel line that’s an overbought level where things are going to reverse that’s happened I’m looking at the chart right now, 123-4567 times in the last two years it’s hit that exact channel line and then the markets have reversed lower led by the semis that’s why it’s important because the semis leading both directions in the inverse of that as far as the supporting trend line 1232-3456 this is the 6th time in two years that the semis have hit that lower trend line and then rallied higher so it’s very reliable and again it hit that lower trend line after yesterday’s close and as we added to our semiconductor position yesterday in advance of that expecting that to happen and now it has happened it’s a major buy signal, we believe it’s a signal again, first in, first out, the semis are first to go lower, now they’re the first to come out it’s also a big risk on signal it’s a buy signal for the market.

Not just the semis, but tech, the broad market, bitcoin, precious metals and miners. We say risk on that means risk. Assets move higher, and some more than others. But that’s why you want the good diversified portfolio with exposure to each of these areas.

[00:14:33]:
So you participate because no one knows exactly which sector is going to be hot every single day. That’s why you want the exposure to several of these, so you don’t to worry about trying to pick one sector every day. You know, you already own these and now your basket of holdings moves higher over time. And that’s our approach to beating the markets, and it’s worked pretty well for us. Okay, this bitcoin conference I talked about a minute ago, bitcoin had a good day today. 20,000 people in Nashville this day. If you watch the videos, they’re live streaming it on Rumble. And that’s where Tyler and I watched it today.

Wish we could have been there, but we were out of town in Rhode island this week. But 20,000 people, unbelievable energy. Big bitcoin fans today. Again, Senator Tim Scott. And another senator, I’ve never heard of her before, but she’s been a big bitcoin advocate since 2017. Maybe she’s a state senator for Nashville. I think I would have heard of her. Anyway, I caught the television, but Tim Scott was doing most of the speaking.

Of course, he’s a us senator as well. Big bitcoin fan. He made the point, which is a pretty good point, I think. If Trump wins, Tim Scott is going to be the chairman of the Senate banking Committee and he is all in on bitcoin. I think that’s important if we’re going to have a strategic bitcoin reserve, which Michael Saylor, microstrategy, today said that the us government taxpayer should own 4 million bitcoin. That’s our maxi position. Double maxi, I think he called it. But he recommends the us government by four.

[00:16:05]:
There’s only 21 million ever going to be in existence. And Michael said sailors recommending the us government has 4 million of them. And so if anything, if developments like that start again, then look at above, because we’re going to have explosive move higher. So, yeah, looking forward to Trump’s speech tomorrow. Again, Google, you find the exact time, but again, you can watch it on rumble. They’re live streaming it and it’s a great way, great way to watch that. What else? Today, small caps. Okay, look, this is us.

Small caps have been red hot. Look, we’ve liked this group for a long time. They hit a brutal two year bear market that’s gone right. We hit 52 week highs. We had a pullback, and now we’re right off to the races again against small caps today at 1.7%. But I got some good data for you. This tells you the strength of this move and what’s probably about to keep happening here, because from July 10, small caps have outperformed the magnificent seven, the big mega cap of tech stocks. Small caps has outperformed the magnificent seven by 24% since July 10.

That’s in two weeks, less than two weeks. So that’s a massive move higher. And that’s what you call real relative strength. You know, we are along this group, of course, our holding is a three time leverage small cap ETF, which is up 50% from the end of April. So we’re certainly participating there. But the key is, is that this is signaling continued sector rotation, broadening action in the markets. And it’s another signal of textbook early bull market action. Rising tide Litz, all boats.

[00:17:46]:
If a major group is not going to hit all time highs, guess what? The market’s giving you a gift, because it’s going to. And so it’s a very simple way to play the market, having exposure to indexes that just haven’t yet participated, because they will participate as this bull market evolves and the bull market grows up. It’s also a very good sign for the us economy, because, again, we talk about this often here. 70% of all small cap companies, their revenues come from domestic revenues in the United States, 70%. So if the small caps are hot, that’s signaling as a discounting mechanism. That’s signaling that the economy, US economy is in good shape. That’s what we want to see right there. Small caps remind me very much, by the way, of the miners, when the small caps run, they really run.

They go parabolic and they tend to spike, get hot. But then they had their shakeout, and then that’s a buying opportunity. Shakeout tends to pull back to the eight or the 21 EMA, the exponential moving average. That’s about it. And then, and then you’re blasting off again. And so we’re seeing that right now. That just happened in Iwm, small cap etf. It also just happened in GDX, the miner ETF.

These are positions we’ll be adding to likely in our parabolic options program starting on Monday or Tuesday to add both what we just purchased yesterday. So again, these are great rotational themes to play, using some very simple technical analysis, because it really does work, especially in big bull markets like this one. And it’s just a repeating pattern. You just do it time and again. All right, let’s talk about the again, the eternals today. Everything underneath the hood was solid today. Really solid. Even, even in decline, the eternals held up again.

[00:19:29]:
That’s another tell. So we didn’t, nothing fell out of bed. And having kind of six or seven or ten to one downside days, everything really held up. Well. It was really strong day today. Nyse. Today was four to one advanced decline. That’s outstanding.

Nyse volume today, 81% of volume day. That is solid. That is really solid. Nasdaq was a three to one positive decline. Volume today in Nasdaq was also very solid at three to one positive. And finally, new 50 Kaiser Lowe’s again, this, I don’t even think this turned negative in our pullback. Again, because of broadening action, the second rotation is taking place. It’s such a positive thing that the new 52 Kaiser lows never went negative in this pullback we’ve had.

That’s another big tell today. Solidly positive as well. Four and 59 stocks high to just 86, hitting a new 52 week low. Tyler just reminded me of the podcast for a meeting for the podcast. Housing today, three different sectors, three different investments, construction and home builders. And anyway, three different areas of the housing complex hit all time highs today. That’s our leading economic indicator, of course, is housing. And that’s always a great bullish tell.

[00:20:50]:
Very good. Again, another strong signal for the us economy, folks. We’re in a long term housing bull market that this thing may last 20 years, it may last longer than that, but it’s not, this is not a short, you don’t have to worry about it. 12345 year bull. This is not that. This is a structural bull market in housing that is going to last for a very long time. Driven by millennials again. Now the largest segment of the population inheriting $71 trillion.

And what do they love? They love housing. What do they love? They love bitcoin, cryptos. What do they love? They love equities, right? They’re entrepreneurs. Okay, this is one of our five big bribe mega trends. Millennials are driving everything now. And I know for years. How many years do we have to listen, if you’re a millennial, how many years did you have to put up with all the bullshit about what a horrible, what horrible people you are and you’re living in your parents basement, right? Because the data never supported it. It just never, it was always.

It was always a psyop. It was always bad info. And so, look, we’re doing research for the big bribe, and we’re like, what is this? We’re finding this is not being reported. Millennials are. They’re king shit. They’re driving everything. And so that, again, that’s very bullish. Very, very bullish for the broad economy.

And really either underreported or it’s. But it’s intentional, intentionally misleading information they’re giving you. And that’s what I go with, because, again, we’ve had a long term slap and negativity. There are multiple reasons for it. I won’t cover this here, but it’s clearly in place. And that’s why everybody thinks the economy is terrible. That’s why all these polls show, oh, my God, things are horrible. No, they’re nothing.

[00:22:33]:
No, we are so blessed. We live in the best country on the planet. Americans have never had more money, never had more prosperity. But the media tells you you should be unhappy. The media tells you things are horrible. And so, again, it’s indoctrination. And it works. It works even when we tell people over and over again the data we share with you guys hundreds and hundreds of times about how this us economy, both for the consumer and corporate America, is in the best shape in decades.

As many times that we share those facts, people still don’t believe it. Kip, you can tell me that all day long. I’m still not going to believe you. Yeah, because that’s how powerful indoctrination is. That’s how propaganda works. You understand what we’re trying to tell you here? Okay, yeah, inflation sucks. We get that. But look at everything else that’s happening.

Look at the wage growth. Look how much money you have. The fact that a third of Americans own their home outright without a mortgage. I mean, there’s so many different areas. They’re all all time highs, right? Credit scores, net worth, consumer net worth, net equity in homes. There’s so many different areas that all point to the same thing. The US economy has rarely, if ever, been in better shape than it is now. That’s just the reality.

You don’t have to like it, but we like to deal in the world of facts, not feelings. And so there you go. All right, let’s take a look at the sector watch today. Perfect day here. All eleven sectors finish higher in the day. Led the upside by, of course, the industrials of 1.7%, materials up 1.7%. Real estate at 1.7. Really strong day across the board, almost everything, up more than 1% today.

[00:24:12]:
Again, all eleven sectors finish higher on the day in our commodity watch today. Good bounce back in gold here, up $32 an ounce. Shakeout, liquidity driven shakeout took place yesterday. If I could explain it, I would. This is just the way gold trades. But again, gold did hit extremely bought. And this bounce off that, this is, again, a little. A little bit of a consolidation phase.

And, folks, this next move higher is going to be. I think. I think parabolic is coming in gold. I think parabolic move is coming in gold, which means the miners are really going to explode higher, which is why I’m going to be adding those positions next week. Gold today, a dollar, 32 an ounce, going at five. Silver a penny at 28.06. Copper today. Copper’s really been hit hard.

Copper, $4.11 a pound. Look at the chart on it, you’ll see what I see. This is a buying opportunity. Big one. I just don’t have a great copper play. The one we did got bought out and I can’t find another copper play that excites me. If you’ve got one, let me know about it. I mean, we know about the big ones, the Rio Tintos, et cetera of the world.

But if you got a really cool copper play, reach out to us, let us know. We are looking for one. Although we’ve got a great exposure in this group, so it’ll have to be special. Crude oil today was down $1.84 a barrel at 76.44. You know, I. Look, this is a difficult thing to talk about for some people, because we know Trump is going to go drill, baby, drill. Well, guess what that means? That means more production. That’s not good for oil and gas prices necessarily.

Certainly for oil. Natural gas is now almost its own animal. But for oil drilling, a lot of new wells, and we’re already at record levels of production now, record levels of drilling now, with Biden as president, that doesn’t mean we’re going to have higher oil prices. We might have. You can make more money from the drillers. Right? But that doesn’t mean oil prices are going to hit 100, $125. I do think that, of course, the blessing here will be that the global economy should Trump win, the global economy will follow the us economy, because the US needs is the world gets a cold. Right.

[00:26:21]:
And so the inverse is true as well. And so that, yeah, that’ll be super bullish for oil prices. But just understand, there’s a reason that in Trump’s first term, in the first year and four months in office, oil was up 20%, but the miners were only up 5%. They were discounting that. And then oil fluctuated quite a bit after that. But again, you’re going to see pretty much every investment sector will thrive under Trump in the first one to two years as GDP growth soars. And then we have the innovation revolution. Ultimately, if Trump wins in Trump’s first four years, I believe we’ll see GDP growth of better than 7% a year.

And you got to go back to World War Two or something to find that kind of GDP, sustained GDP growth. Okay? And I believe that’s what we’re going to have. So that will force oil prices higher. Of course. Just understand the short term, there’s not going to be. Probably not going to be a big boost higher in oil prices. Natural gas is different, different creature altogether. Nat Gas City, by the way, back down to $2.04 per mcf.

And finally today, bitcoin. I could cover it all pretty much just earlier, a few minutes. As I speak right now, bitcoin trading over 68,000. That’s about 4% on the day. Again, a lot of excitement about Trump’s speech tomorrow, what he’s going to talk about. But, you know, again, you have so many, so many people now on the bitcoin train and the bitcoin bandwagon that this is going to be a one way ticket. Hire. You know, we, bitcoin’s been very good to us.

[00:27:52]:
Okay. And, yeah, we are aggressively long again, we’re pounding the table on it. Don’t really care what it does today. Could not care less. I just know if it goes down as a gift, like Tesla, it’s a gift. Thank you. I get to buy more at a cheaper price, and that is what we. That’s exactly what we do here.

So if I would, frankly, if we could get a shake out in bitcoin to 50,000, I’d be one of the happiest people in the world because I’d want to probably convert more gold into bitcoin, kind of something I’ve been doing. Just increase my exposure to bitcoin as you have new, you know, new income, new, new, new cash flows in when add to bitcoin position. I don’t think that’s going to happen. Our minimum target for 2024 is 100,000. Tyler told me that the biggest moves after these big conferences, like we’re in Nashville right now, begin seven days after the event. That’s what the guy Anthony Poplano said. So there you go bitcoin 68,000 and give our target this year is 100 and my cycle high, the two to five year target of 250,000. And you’ve got some crazy, you start looking out, you know, 1020 years, you get some really crazy numbers, a million, 2 million, 3 million of bitcoin.

[00:29:08]:
But it is going to be a one way ticket higher. There is no better supply demand story. Everyone should have at least a piece of bitcoin or these ETF’s. And I guess at this point, it really doesn’t matter which one you own. Probably good. Diversify there as well, right. Okay, folks, that’s it for the day. Hey, always appreciate you listening.

Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again Monday after the close. Have a great weekend, everybody.