In today's episode Kip dives into the latest market action including, the latest from the Fed, BLS Job revisions, and an election update. He also breaks down what a Trump win means for your portfolio and how to invest accordingly. Finally Kip covers the primary catalysts just around the corner for this market. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Wednesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily bearing investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. A little bit of a different start here. Tyler and I were just involved in a really interesting conversation about some projects that we’re working on that we’ll have written up for you soon as well, some new themes of ours and things that make sense. We’ve been asked to put together a column for Wayne Root that Wayne will carry in his weekly, monthly, kind of global syndicated publications and gateway pundit and many others. And he wants us to write out our top picks.

What the market will do with Trump wins, as I should say, win. That’s the focus of it when Trump wins and what the markets will do in the best places to have your money with that outcome. Because if you remember, just before the 2016 election, I wrote a book called Crash Proof Prosperity. That’s what I did. I said I predicted Trump was going to win, and this was many months before the election, predicted Trump was going to win and that the Dow Jones would go up 40% in his first year, GDP would top 5%. All those happened. And so I predicted that. I named the Trump economic miracle.

So I’m really not sitting here patting myself on the back, but there’s a story to that. And so Wayne thinks it makes sense to write another piece just to kind of encapsulate, you know, why, that I’m someone that maybe you can listen to and help make sense of the investment environment, if not politics. As I wrote this morning, you do not want my political forecast and predictions. They’re horrible. I got 2016 right. Then I completely whiffed on 2020, as I did on the midterms, which are supposed to be a red wave. And I got this totally wrong. But, you know, Wayne was asked me to also.

[00:01:57]:
Well, I’m going to write this up in the morning, too. I was talking to Wayne today, and of course, he reads our work every morning. And I know he listens to a lot of our podcasts, too. And so this morning, you know, I talked to him for the piece I’m writing tomorrow. We’ve been teaming this up for our VRA members here, how to bet on a Trump win and what Wayne’s strategy is for making that wager, you know, that can’t be done legally in the US. Of course, there’s any number of other ways do it. But we might even disclose a couple of those, some offshore betting sites. So people can do that if they want to.

So I think it was a fun conversation to have. And Wayne has some very enlightening things to say. I will tell you. He believes that the rumors are true and that this Friday, RFK junior and his VP, who’s a really, really bright, I don’t know her history. I’m sure it’s very liberal, but she’s very well spoken, very intelligent. I like the way her brain works, and I just don’t know enough about her. But she said in an interview, that’s one or two possibilities. Either they keep going and trying to get 5%, which they think they can do, or maybe make a difference, but what they don’t want to do is hurt Trump because they don’t want to.

She said this specifically said, I don’t want to see what they’re going to do to this country, Harris and Walsh would do to this country. Because I, one of my biggest regrets in life was being a Democrat. I mean, that’s a bold statement. Right? And so, you know, if they were to go ahead and step down and throw all their support and votes to Trump, you can’t tell me that’s not a serious game changer, right? Even so, you know, we talked about that. I’ll probably include some that tomorrow. Wayne thinks it’s going to happen. Wayne thinks it’s going to happen on Friday. He says no one in the Trump team has told him this.

[00:03:49]:
That’s just what he believes. And, of course, several others have made the claim as well. So that would be big. I think that’d be very good news for our country. We had a poll this morning we talked about in our letter. I’m sure you’ve all seen this by now of the Elon Musk poll and who’s going to win the election. Right? And I’m looking at it right now. It’s now got 5.7 million votes, got about just less than an hour left to vote, got 5.7 million votes, and Trump is up 73.3% to Kamala’s 26.7.

A lot of people thought they would find a way to rig this. It’ll be interesting. With 50 minutes left, can they close that gap? If they can, that is an in your face f you. We can rake anything we want to. That’s what that would be. That’s part of the demoralization of America, which they’re exceedingly good at. So I, obviously, I don’t think this gap is going to be closed. I think this is an important poll.

And because I think the studies have shown there are more democrats on Twitter than there are republicans. I did not know that before, but somebody broke that case study or I guess, a look into Twitter’s followers. This all had the blessing of Elon Musk. And so I think that was interesting. I didn’t expect that, really. So, yeah, I think this poll carries some weight. That means they’re going to have, like Wayne said, they’re going to have to really rig this one. They’re going to really, really rig this one.

[00:05:18]:
Okay. Let’s take a look at the markets today. Good day. Like I said, you know, today we got the BLS information right? And then we got the Fed minutes. I’ll just talk about both briefly. BlS News was, you know, look, they said that this, the jobs totals reported over the last year from March to march might be off by as many as a million jobs. Well, it came in, it was down. What was the total? They had to revise it.

Lower job growth. Payroll growth revised that lower by 818,000 jobs for the year through March. Okay. And so, you know, everyone’s like, well, two things. Number one, they’re obviously doing the cut rates, which is the next topic of the Fed minutes of last month’s Fed meeting. Obviously they’re going to cut rates, number one. But number two, I mean, we knew this, right? This is not new news. We knew this.

We knew that they’re lying about these numbers because it was right in our face every month. Tyler talked about it more than I do. I’ve just. I’ve just grown accustomed to these things because instead of getting caught up in these individual dramas, you know, about these various government reporting events, and I just assume the worst. But then I watch what the market’s doing because that’s all that matters, is the direction, right? The market speaking. The rest is noise. Because so many of the times, if not most of the time, the market’s discounting something down the road, not something that’s already happened. Market couldn’t give a shit less about what happened yesterday.

[00:07:01]:
It’s always about one month now. One day, one week, one month, a quarter, six months. And market’s always looking outward. The best discounting mechanism on the planet. And that’s why I don’t, I don’t get caught up in these numbers, but I must say, this is a big one. I mean, to be busted for having to revise down these jobs numbers by 818,000 people, that’s a big admission that, yeah, we’re full of shit. Okay? Not that we didn’t already know that. Again, I think we do so that was the market just took that with a grain of salt.

It was actually better. Some of the rumors, that’s of course how they do it as well. Wow, what a racket. But the other thing that was big today was the fed minutes. Again, this kind of ties into what we’re just talking about because the Fed now has every excuse they need to cut and to cut by 50 basis points. See, they’ll use this, right? This is how crafty these guys are. Jay Powell and his team of money printing rock stars as they see themselves, they will use this data and say, hey, we didn’t do the jobs numbers, but we found out, like you did, this revised down by almost a million people, 800,000 plus reality, I’m sure it is much more than a million. And so they’re going to use this when they cut rates next month, three weeks from now, when they cut rates, this will be one of the things that they mention, I guarantee you, that gets them covered.

[00:08:26]:
That’s why that’s important. So instead of going, and my theory is that they’ll use this plus the next jobs report, which likely is going to be weak as well, because everyone’s going to be looking through that job that happens before the Fed meeting. Everyone’s going to be looking at that jobs number to see if there’s confirmation of both this and all the other slowing that we’re seeing. So that’s going to be a powerful one two punch. And so the federal, all the COVID they need to cut by 50 basis points next month. And of course, the markets are going to keep front running this. I mean, they’re going to, markets are going to keep expecting it. There’s a lot more to be positive about.

There’s so many positive, there are so many, economically speaking, so many positive things happen. If you are in the first America, things have never been better for you. And there’s just no question about that. There’s zero question about that. I had this debate with so many people, and frankly, it’s tiring because I’m right and they’re wrong. Okay, Wayne and I had this debate all the time and I just keep giving them facts. We’ve talked about these so often here. Yes, we’ve had inflation, right? But for the wealthy, your assets have benefited dramatically from that same inflation.

And if you’re smart enough to understand, oh, guess what, if they’re printing a lot of money, stocks are going to go up, I’m going to be heavy in stocks, right? Print a lot of money, gold’s going to go up. I’m going to buy a lot of gold. Oh, print a lot of money. Bitcoin’s going to go up. Go buy a lot of bitcoin. This is not rocket science. If you are in the first America, you’ve never been in better financial shape ever in history. This is the roaring two thousand twenty s second America, boy.

[00:10:06]:
Dare I say it? Dare I say work harder? I mean, I’m sorry, I don’t have a lot of compass. I come from the second America, right? We had, we really did have nothing. Okay? It was a struggle. As I remember as a kid. It was a struggle regularly, right? Not just a parent’s fighting over money and not be able to pay the bills, but did we get three meals a day? I had some of that growing up. And look, I grew up more than most and we did a lot of love in my house, but that’s the reality. So I just know that the people I worked with and I grew up with early on, I could see right away they either had it or they didn’t. They were either ready to go make their future or they just didn’t have that chutzpah, you know? So we are adults and we do choose so that I don’t have a lot of sympathy for the complainers.

Now, it’s a physical or mental issue. Completely different story, right? Completely different story. But I think there’s time for an honest message in this country. Get to work, you know? Get to work, right? There’s never been more opportunity for massive success than we have right now. Just whatever you have an interest in, you can make a shit ton of money in that right now. Okay? So again, we’ve had this sign up of negativity and it’s gotten a lot of people that are more disposed to, you know, to having be impacted by the state’s message. You know, it’s. It’s got people depressed and discouraged when they just, they can stop listening to people that are lying to you.

I’m sorry. I’m. I am telling you the truth. Right? Home prices, all time high. Net equity in homes, all time high. Credit scores, all time high. Consumer net worth, all time high. One third of Americans own their home without a mortgage on it, all time high, obviously, right? I can keep going.

[00:11:56]:
Again, consumers have reduced debt by 25% over the last 15 years. That’s to disposable income. Corporations have done even more. Corporate debt to market cap sits at a 50 year low. This has been a big theme of tolerance hours since we started researching the big bride and wrote that book, and we just kept following the data. And so you see all this, you go, what are their negatives? Yeah, there are negatives. Prices have gone up. Guess what, man? Look at what’s happening because of that.

So we’re playing the game, may not even know it, and you are right, but the game’s working for you right now. Enjoy that double down. You know, this is that time to stay locked in. So again, this has been one of our base cases. That’s why we’re buying dips. And we have from the beginning. That’s why the BLS data doesn’t matter and it’s why the fed minutes don’t matter. I’m adding this tomorrow, and I’m sorry to go off on a long diatribe like this.

I’m adding this tomorrow to our base case because we’ve had these catalysts, right, that we’ve been squawking to you about now for about two, three weeks. And we said these are going to be front ran and we want to get in front of these because the smart money is going to keep doing it. And those three catalysts were Friday and Jay pals speech at Jackson Hole. That’s number one. Number two is the Nvidia report on the 28th, a week from today. That’s number two. And number three is the fed rate cut. And that’s basically three weeks from now.

[00:13:23]:
And so those are three catalysts. But we got a new one because after Friday, we lose the Jay Palace beach at Jackson Hole. We never need another to take his place. And I have it. Here’s it. It’s also part of our base case. Look, we said a couple years ago that this market that we’re living through now, it would happen and it is, okay? But again, we are early. We are early in this bull market.

That’s the key to understand. We talked about the reasons for that. So often the way consumer, consumer sentiment is reacting is indicative of a market that’s early innings, okay? These are big tells. Okay? This is not just kip, just coming up with a reason to be bullish. These are big tells that you should understand, okay? Because this, that way, if you understand these like we do, you can have a supreme amount of confidence when you’re buying dips. So here’s one we’re adding to our bullish case, okay? If the market’s going to do what we think it’s going to do, Dow Jones going to 100,000 plus, Nasdaq going to 40,000 plus. Even beyond 2030, this being a long term bull market with, with hyper GDP growth of 5% plus. Right.

Because the innovation revolution, all our, all our themes. Okay, we have a new one to add to it. If we’re right about all that we have been so far, if we’re right about that and the market keep going up, we’re going to have a lot of years where the s and P of 100 is up 25 to 30% to 35%. We’d have a lot of those years. We’d have a lot of. Understand a lot of those years. Over a 20 year period, we’re probably going to have seven, eight, nine, half the years, maybe that 25% plus. Right.

[00:15:02]:
So you say, okay, that sounds pretty good. But right now, kip, where are we? Where we’re at 17.8%. So, you know, again, the dip. Okay. When you could have bought about 5% cheaper, of course, that was a scream about, we did buy that, but now it still is. We’re at basically 18% for the year that’s on the SPF 100. And if we’re right, it’s going to be 25% to 35%. So you’re going to make seven to 17% more.

But again, that’s only if you’re in the s 500. Of course, we like to pride ourselves on owning investments that are going to beat the SV 100. So you’re talking about a multiple of those returns. So that’s another reason that we’re bullish here. Again, that’s what has to happen for our base case to become true. The markets have to scream higher. Okay. Dow Jones today was up 50 basis.

Excuse me, 50 basis. 50 points up at one 10th to 1%. In second place was SVF, 104 tenths, 1%. And then we got the big gainers in the day. Nasdaq up six tenths, 1%. And then Russell 2000 up 1.3%. You know, it’s. You look at a chart on it and you go, yeah, it’s just.

[00:16:08]:
Just a matter of time. It’s a pretty good looking coil spring. I’m pulling up a new chart now. Well, you know what we like? We like small caps, a lot of value here, and they’re very cheap. Still well below the all time highs. And then the semi. So that was the biggest semis today. We’re up big again.

Kip Herriage [00:16:25]:
We had a textbook day today. Semi is up 1%, Nasdaq up 610% to 1%. That’s the. How they. That’s the order that they’re supposed to go in. And so again, so much about this is a textbook for market. Same thing with the internals today. I’ll go right to those here because they are again, very solid today.

This has been, again, another repeating pattern that is in place here. And it’s important to recognize these. It just gives you all the more confidence to buy these dips. Advanced decline NYSE 2.5 to one. Advanced decline, Nasdaq also two and a half to one up. Volume on New York Washington Point was a 70, 70%. Good day. And a volume on Nasdaq was 73%.

These are solid days here, folks. And then we also had 336 stocks in a 52 week high to just 86 at the end of 52 week low. So it’s a trifecta. Trifecta went across the board. We saw the same thing in our sectors. Nine of eleven, really, it’s all eleven. These two that were lower, but like, barely nine of eleven sectors finished high on the day, led by consumer discretionary, 1.2%, materials 1.5, and then again, a whole list of half percent or more. Again, financials down 0.14%.

[00:17:39]:
And that’s really it. Again, another confirmation day from the sector watch in our commodities today. I love this group. You know, we do. Again, everything has gotten silver bought now, we wrote this this morning. This is, we’re approaching by the rumor sale of the news. You know, Tyler, I think Tyler really believes this is the case. Jay Powell is, you know, Tyler’s a resident fed watcher and Jay pal is pretty predictable.

Like, he tends to mess up press conferences, but he has been better of late. But he doesn’t like being front ran and that’s what the markets are doing here. They’ve been front running his speech at Jackson Hole, assuming he’s just going to be so, so dovish. I wouldn’t be surprised that Tyler, I think, agrees with this. If we saw a big down day tomorrow, just so he can come to the rescue, you know, ride to the rescue and save everybody with. But, you know, I guarantee you again, he’s going to use this data, this BLS data of 800,000 jobs that just aren’t there. If we had only known, you know, I mean, the steer in the head, like, who’s buying this? Right? We just watched a scripted movie. It’s embarrassing.

Jay Powell should resign. It is really disgraceful, the job he has done at the Federal Reserve. All right, so, yeah, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the market are down a little bit tomorrow. But again, we have so many catalysts that are bullish. We’re gonna. Again, we’re gonna be buying the debt. We just try to get as close as possible. You know, gold today, pretty much flat today, actually, it was flat today, 25, 50 an ounce.

[00:19:13]:
Look, these have been on pretty serious tear. A day or two of some sideways movements. Not gonna hurt anybody. A little basing action, little consolidation action. I think that’s what we’re seeing, because these are a one way ticket higher. Silver up three tenths of 1% at 29.36. Excuse me. 29.63.

Crude oil 7194, down another $1.23 a barrel. I don’t think that it helps the price of crude oil when Trump’s out there saying we’re going to be. The way we’re going to cut inflation is by drilling like crazy. Right? And that means removing regulations. We just drill, baby, drill. That’s not a bullish theme for oil in and of itself. And I’ll leave that there. This is not going to be one of our investment themes if Trump wins, I can tell you that now, energy stocks could be a different story, but I would not expect.

If Trump wins, I would not expect oil prices to go up. I would expect them to go lower, and I think probably buy a lot. So that’s something we should maybe plan for. Right? Natural gas is its own thing, but for oil prices, you know, I think. I think that’s probably the answer there, unfortunately, for. For a lot of people. But again, you know, it’s great for the economy, right? Copper today, up 1% at poor, 20 a pound. Again, crude oil just covered.

[00:20:34]:
Finally today, bitcoin. Bitcoin. Got some life into today. I still don’t really know what the news is. You know, maybe, maybe, maybe Josh came up with this. I think Josh Foley here in our office came up with this, and he may be right that JFK Junior is going to join Trump. That’s super bullish for cryptocurrencies. And that’s the take that makes sense to me.

And I hadn’t put those two together for some reason. Don’t know why, but good pick up there. Josh and Tyler working on this together. That’s very good work. All right. And again, bitcoin today, up right now, it’s up 4%. I’m sorry, that’s seven days. Up 3% in the last 24 hours.

[00:21:19]:
Quoting. This is always weird. At last is 61,081. Again, that’s up 3%. 24 hours now at 4% of the last seven days. Market cap of bitcoin now is 1.21 trillion, and which is still tiny, tiny, tiny for a global currency and they’ve already mined 94% of all bitcoin. What? It’s a story that really does tell itself and sell itself. I don’t know what’s it going to take for it to really get legs? I have no clue.

I just know it’s, I just feel like it’s going to happen, and I think it belongs in. Every, everyone, every single investors portfolio should have some exposure to bitcoin. All right, folks, that’s it for the day. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.