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VRA Investing Podcast: Optimistic Predictions for America’s Economic Future – Kip Herriage – October 03, 2024

In today's episode, Kip explores the latest market dynamics, including sector performances, gold vs. Bitcoin investments, and the implications of geopolitical events like Iran's attack on Israel. Kip will also share his views on t ...

Posted On October 03, 20241473
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About This Episode

In today's episode, Kip explores the latest market dynamics, including sector performances, gold vs. Bitcoin investments, and the implications of geopolitical events like Iran's attack on Israel. Kip will also share his views on the ongoing bull market, advocating strategic timing and sector allocation. Plus, he’ll touch on his political insights, including expectations for the upcoming election and market movements linked to Trump's potential victory. Tune into today's podcast to learn more!

Transcript

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Thursday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. It’s October. It’s the first week of October. I don’t know really what else to say here except that this is kind of a combination of when bad things happen, right. This is a bad seasonality, especially in election year.

Markets are coming off of extreme overbought levels. Now they are coming off those levels. That’s the way this works, right. Even if the market just moves sideways for a few days, that happens. And now we’ve had a little bit lower, a little bit of a move lower, especially following the, Iran’s attack of Israel. We’ve had some softness in the market, but very light. The internals have held up well. The VRA investing system remains that we run this every couple, three days.

[00:00:49]:
No reason to run it every day. It doesn’t work quite that way. It’s more of a medium to long term gauge. But we still have ten to twelve screens. Bullish. And the most we’ve ever been was eleven to twelve. That was until a few, what, two months ago when we went from eleven to ten. So this is a great setup for stockholders to be a stock owner and to be long.

The market is a great setup. The only question is, is there going to be, I think we’re trying to really pick the perfect spots, right. When do we take the, any additional cash we have on the sideline or when maybe we move some money around from some sectors that aren’t working to sectors and stocks. We want to be aggressive, more aggressively in. What’s the perfect time to do that? You know, that’s, that’s always a tough one. Right. Getting exactly right. But bottom line is that this is the time to own stocks.

This is a time to be long in the us market. Will we get a bit of a move lower? I kind of, Tyler just talked about this. Kind of felt like we’re going to, I kind of feel like we’re going to have a shakeout because sentiment is still at extreme levels. Really. It’s come off of extreme greed, but the fear and greed index is still like 67. AI fell a little bit last night, but not by much. Still fairly bullish. National association of Money Managers.

[00:02:10]:
Theirs is still really, I don’t think it changed at all the last week. And so we’re seeing sentiment really not be impacted by this, the fears that we have, which I find pretty interesting. Now this is how the evolution of a bull market happens, man. It’s an interesting conversation, I think, because remember, from the launch of this bear bull market two years ago now, two years ago this month, October 13, was when the bear market ended and the bull market started. In retrospect, every time we’ve had a downdraft, we’ve seen the sentiment indicators plummet quickly. That’s not happening yet. Now, again, we’ve not had a sharp move lower. But again, tech stocks are down quite a bit from their highs.

Certainly the semis are still down, what, 15% from their highs. So I think it’s interesting that we’re seeing the sentiment surveys and the indicators are holding their ground better, and that is how a bull market evolves, and that’s a natural process. But people just start getting more aggressive and more comfortable, really, in buying the dip. And frankly, I think that’s why I expect us to have more of a dip. It still feels like a melt up bull market, but there’s just part of this market that says there’s a whoosh coming, there’s a wish coming that may last two or three days. And that’s what we’re waiting for. Listen, if we don’t get it, we’re already positioned fantastically well. Have our VRa, ten baggers, we’ve got our tech stocks, we’ve got, we’ve got everything.

We’ve got chinese tech stock, we have our special situation stocks like GameStop. We’re in all the stock, bitcoin, we’re in all the areas that we want to be represented. And now it’s just like, I’ll just take for myself. You know, I’m sitting on 20% cash. That’s pretty high for me, maybe 20% cash, and I hardly ever have more than 10%, but I’m going to wait and see if we get one more whoosh and see what happens. Because right now, this bull market doesn’t look like it wants to budge, does it? Again, we had the attack against Israel and the Dow Jones fell 400 points. But it was very orderly. And then it here came the rally.

[00:04:21]:
There were buyers there, and there are going to increasingly be buyers to this bull market, because bottom line is, this bull market is just getting started. I think that there’s just so few people that understand this, and that’s interesting to me. I’ve done this a long time, I get that. But I know very smart people and that are pretty good at the markets and pretty good at understanding the psychology of investing, and they’re still not there yet. They had not seen what we talk about here all the time. Ed Dardini put out a great update last night that I shared with our folks this morning about the nature of this economy and this bull market. Ediardini said his title was the US economy is roaring. Remember Ed Giardini about one year ago joined the VRA in our forecast from, was actually August of 2022, I believe, when we published the big bribe where we talked about.

We’ve entered the roaring two thousand twenty s and get ready for what’s about to happen. Ed Dardini joined our call about a year ago for the roaring 2020s as well. But he’s not, look, I think he does really good work, but he does it this way, like he says, even today. Now he’s saying there’s a 50% chance that we’re in the roaring 2020. So he’s come up from 20% to 50%. Right. And we’re telling you, we’ve been telling you straight up for two years, no, it’s 100%. It’s 100% that we are in the roaring 2020s.

It’s a structural bull market. That’s the point that so many are missing. I think it’s just this, the propaganda has been so overwhelming and overpowering for people’s psyche that they just can’t see. They can’t. We had three bear markets in five years. My God, we had, the financial crisis was only, what, 15 years ago. So 16 years ago. These, you know, these are painful memories that you just don’t forget.

[00:06:17]:
These. Look who’s, look who’s president. Who. That’s a good. Who is president? Do we do. Even though. Yeah, we know, right? We know the shadow government’s running things, and that’s why they don’t let Trump in. They want to keep their, their power base in check.

That’s why Harris is just, Biden was perfect, and Harris is even more perfect. I mean, she’s a lampshade. She’ll do. She will do literally anything. If they told her to strip naked, run through Central park, she would do it. She’d do it, like, in about five minutes. Oh, you want me to do that? I’ll do it. Okay, done.

Let’s go. Why are you waiting? I’m already ahead of you. Let’s go get the cameras. That’s how these people are now, because they know they’re in it just themselves and for their back end payment. And they want to be one of the elites. I mean, this is what this country’s come down to. And again, that is, that is the roman empire, is it not? That’s how the roman empire evolved. So without question, we are on that track.

[00:07:11]:
It doesn’t mean we have to continue down that road. I don’t think that’s a requirement at all. And I don’t think it’s a fait accompli either. But I will tell you this, if Trump doesn’t win, that process is going to speed up because that’s what they have to see happen. And I know so many people that go, what is this in standing? What is going on? Who could believe these things? People have yet to grasp that this is the, this is not a flaw, it’s a feature. Like they want to implode the system. That’s how communism gains power. You know, people get so desperate, you know, in, if the economy and the system crashes, that’s what they want.

That’s the scariest part of this whole thing, because you got to figure if they wanted to, they could probably pull the plug anytime. Well, that’s why, again, that’s why you own gold, right? And that’s why you own more gold than bitcoin. Now. Just going to remind people of that. It’s a, it’s a pet peeve of mine when I see these people online. I don’t know most of these people, but I’ve kind of gotten to know them over the years. Some of the bigger names, of course, in the bitcoin world, like Max Kaiser, it’s just 100% bitcoin. Like, what are you thinking about? Do you not know? They could shut that off at any time now to come and take all of our gold is like coming to take all of our guns, right? Come and take all our gold and silver is like coming to take our guns.

That’s got to go house by house. And I just don’t see that happening. Even if there was a government mandate to turn in your gold like there was with FDR, how many people do you think would do that? First of all, very few people did it then and so even fewer would do it now. But that’s what they wanted. They want the system to implode so they can take over. Because when people are desperate enough, you can’t feed your family, you don’t have a roof over your head, you don’t have power, you know, North Carolina, for example, nationwide. Then when you’re that desperate, you’ll accept anything as long as you can get relief, feed your kids, you know, take care of your woman, right? So that’s what they want. And I think that’s the thing that one of the things that frustrates me.

[00:09:13]:
And I know, I think I speak for a lot of you. The people that just haven’t gotten there yet, they’re like, what are they saying? It’s driving crazy. I can’t believe people support this, right? No one does support it. This is all a media invention because the media is the. Owned by the state. This is. They have pulled off a masterful job of dumbing people down. And it really started, let’s be honest about it.

Okay? I didn’t plan on talking about this, but I talked about this on stage for so long with WMI all over the world. Stages all over the world talked about this. It was one of my most. I think. I think the most impactful presentation that I did was about the Federal Reserve. It also got a lot of my bank accounts closed. All right? And for, you know, for no reason, all of a sudden, they’re just gone, you know, but the. And targeted, I think, in other ways, too.

We’ve been banned by a lot of folks still to this day. But, you know, the. The point that I think very few people, because I hear no one talking about this, and it’s the conversation that should be happening. The reason that we become so dependent and so dumbed down and so dependent on that paycheck, right? And even though in so many families, both spouses have to work, it’s because of the Federal Reserve. Money printing. That is the reason. There is no other reason. That is the reason.

[00:10:29]:
We also know, of course, that there’s no other reason for inflation except money printing. Okay? There is no other. That’s it. It’s just money printing. Then the same thing applies to why so many families are in that second America or third America really struggling with suffering? It’s because of money printing? Because, you know, again, what was it just three decades ago, maybe four decades? I. I don’t know exactly when the. The light switch went off, but it had to be in 71, after Nixon took it, the US, off the gold standard. That’s when things really started going to shit.

Okay? Because then they could. They unleashed the money printing spigot, and that’s when the american family really began to suffer. And that’s why, again, that’s. I think it’s a common sense point, but I don’t see people connecting the dots. And I think this is what I. I think this is what should happen, that people wake up and go, are you telling me without the Federal Reserve’s money printing, that my wife or my husband would have been able to stay home this whole time, that one income would have taken care of all of our needs because we wouldn’t have had this level of inflation. Yeah, that’s exactly what I’m telling you. That’s exactly what I’m telling you.

And so that’s, again, this is all being done in a very planned fashion. And that’s what we have to change. We have to change to change that. We’ve got to go take back the presidency. My hope is this time Trump can stay focused on what matters and not get snookered again like he did with the pandemic or punching down, you know, 24/7 tweeting about some celebrity that offended him. I mean, this is, this is what did him in. Right. The pandemic for many, many people did Trump in.

[00:12:15]:
But his personality, of course, turned so many people off still to this day. My wife and I said this conversation, Sydney, I said this conversation. She still has friends that are conservatives that want to vote Republican and can’t and won’t because of Trump. That’s real. That’s just real. And he brought a lot of that. Of course he did, on himself. But, you know, reminded what Steve Bannon said, you know, when Steve Bannon was meeting, and this is months before the election, when very few people thought he really had a real chance to win, as Steve Bannon said, you know what? We’re going to stop all these consulting groups.

We’re going to stop. Listen. And he put it on the whiteboard right at the very top of the whiteboard. You’ve probably seen the picture. Let Trump be Trump. That’s it. That was, that was their campaign strategy. Let Trump be Trump.

And of course, it worked. And now he’s a, he said George Washington figure. I mean, he is. He is that. He is that big. And history will look at him that way, regardless of how the history books are written. Of course, if communism takes over, then Trump’s name won’t even be in the history books, I would imagine. But we, you know, again, I’m a positive person.

[00:13:20]:
Optimism works for me. I can’t imagine being any other way. And I know this in my heart that America’s best days are ahead of us. I am absolutely certain about that. And I’ll tell you something. Let’s go down another little road here, because every morning when I get up, I do my affirmations, say my prayers. And for me, the book that changed, think and grow Rich was the first book that I read that changed the way I thought. My first branch manager, Tom Doran.

Tom Doran, this guy was hilarious. Okay? He didn’t mean to be. He just was an interesting personality. But he drove us to work hard. I mean, it was mandatory. You were in the office. You know, you worked, you worked five days a week, 12 hours a day, and then you worked every other Saturday for 8 hours. That was a requirement.

That was not, you didn’t keep your job. And we, you know, we kind of hated it, but then we started making money, and then we started saying, okay, I can actually, I can actually do this. Right? Hard work does pay off. So I never complained about it, but, you know, there were times, you know, as a 23 year old, I’d maybe rather not be working that many hours a week, but. And I was just broke. I was just broke for the first three years. Made no money whatsoever. I think it took me three years to get to 60, 70,000 a year.

[00:14:33]:
And. But then, you know, but then the hard work paid off. But Tom Doran introduced us to think and grow rich by Napoleon Hill, and he made us read it, and we had conversations about it, and that was a game changer. Thank you again, Tom Doran, for that. And then the follow up for me and my go to now is, many of you heard me talk about this for many, many, many years. I’ve got in my hand, I have my original manifesto destiny by Doctor Wayne Dyer. This is a book that should be required reading from an early age. It’s the number one book that should be required.

I mean, I’m not talking the Bible, okay? We’re talking about, you know, books written by regular people. Modern times, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s manifesto destiny. But Doctor Wayne Dyer, because what you realize from this, and I think this is a closing circle here with the conversation about our best days are ahead of us. I don’t know how this works, okay? But I can tell you it works. That what you think about, you bring about. It’s a little more complicated than that because it’s got to be focused, right? And you got to get rid of the ego. You have to be able to trust the universe, trust God. You have to practice unconditional love.

There are a lot of things in here that don’t come natural to people, because we’re not taught this and we should be. But when you do this and you let go of the ego, which is where anger, it’s where anxiety is, where frustration comes from, right? This is a hard one for me, okay? I’m a pretty spoken texan, and so it’s not easy for me to let go of the ego because I’m a driven person as well. But when you practice these things and you make this your focus, I’ve just seen it. I see Carl, Bessie, my partner and I with wealth masters, you know, we would, we would talk about this all the time, you know, and that’s how we built wealth masters from startup to $100 million in revenue. Actually, he did that in about eight years. And rest in peace, Carl, my good friend and business partner, had left us to cancer a few years ago. But I, and that’s why I, again, I’ve got, I’ve got, I’ve got other reasons why I think this works, but the end of the day, it just works. It works for me and it works for a lot of people.

[00:16:51]:
I think it is the secret. I think it is the secret, Tyrone. I’m talking all the time. I think it is the secret to how massive wealth is accumulated by people that figure this out. And I mean figure it out. I’m sure they probably have. You know, look, there’s. The ultra wealthy are largely put in that position, okay, let’s be honest about it.

And they are controlled by the state. Jeff Bezos is the world. Maybe the Elon Musk. I don’t know. I like what I’m seeing from him, certainly more. More in the last few years than I did at some points. We are big fans of Elon here for what he’s done from a business point of view. But for the average person to read this book and really apply these principles, it does make a difference.

Things start to happen in your life. You go, and it’s more than prayer. Prayer to me, I don’t like begging anybody for anything. I don’t like that. I want to be in control. I want to. And that’s ego speaking, by the way. But what I mean is, I want to have a more active role in the process.

[00:17:51]:
Instead of just asking God for things. I want to be able to see if I can’t play a more active role in seeing the things that I really want to be able to help other people, to be able to live a great and a blessed life, to try to be the man I want to be right and achieve the goals I want to achieve. This book has helped me. And so I believe that because we do control our future by what we think about. I think about America being that shining city on a hill that Kennedy used to talk about. I talk about, I think in Reagan, I think about America that is going to get back to all the great things it was when I was younger, you know, but also remember, it’s not that the sixties and seventies, I mean, we had Vietnam, you know, we had, we had a lot of, we had assassinations. We had a lot of bad things that happened. But, but there’s no doubt about it.

There’s just no, zero doubt about this. That the last 20, what, three years since 911 are the worst two decades plus 24 years, last decade, the worst 23 years, american history. And there’s not a close second. I’ve had this conversation with a lot of people and I say it, they go, well, that can’t be right. We’ve had world wars. No, no, no, keep that. Keep going. They didn’t last 20 years.

You know, it’s the combination of things that have happened and they all stem from 911. In fact, we let them get away with it. And that’s, that’s when they really, they’re like, man, if we can pull this off, if we can make them think that 19 terrorists and box cutters from a cave in Afghanistan, they did all this to beat the United States, that we can get away with anything, including now, climate change, the hoax that is climate change, folks, the day you can show me how to control the sun, I will believe in your version of climate change. Until then, you are a laughingstock and anyone that believes in you is a fool. But at the end of the day, again, I’m certain of this, that our best days are ahead of us. I’m very optimistic Trump’s going to win and I think you’ll have a more effective active term. Again, if he wasn’t, if we wouldn’t snookered with the pandemic, then things would have gone a lot differently anyway. But anyway, point being, I am very bullish in America.

[00:19:59]:
We are in the roaring 2020s. Edgar Dini, I’m glad you joined us. Is exactly the case. Just as a reminder, I just got to put this out there. We’ve been saying, because the data had reflected that one third of Americans own their home outright without a mortgage. And that data just, you may have heard this just been updated recently. We’ve been quoting this now. I think it’s 39.5.

Call it 40%. 40%. Four out of ten Americans own their home without a mortgage. I had this conversation with people individually. Right. And when I make that point and they’re like, are you really that bullish? Do you just say that? You just writing that? Or do you really feel that way, Ken? Like I really do. Because, and here are the reasons. It’s a structural bull market.

[00:20:44]:
And I go, I start, you know, talking about the reasons, and I get to, basically 40% of Americans own their home without a mortgage. And they’re like, I hear it says so many times, does someone interrupt me and go, hey, we paid off our home last year. Or, yeah, we haven’t had a mortgage in five years. I hear this so many times. And so again, you cannot have another 2008. It’s an impossibility. It’s an impossibility to have another 2008 when 40% of Americans own their home. Alright? It’s just not going to happen.

And so this is, this is the biggest, the biggest thing I think people struggle with again, is getting, you know, your bias. You know, what we’ve been through, the pain we’ve gone through is trying to eliminate that. It’s a good thing we have that. I think, though, because it does make us better. You know, it’s like, wow, remember what happened? We don’t want that to happen again. I’m not gonna let the government or the banking system or credit card industry, I’m not gonna let anybody control my life again. So I’m gonna take control of my finances. That’s what happened.

That’s the good thing that happened after 2008. Looking back on it, right? Americans have never, and again, you have to disregard so much of the, it is, it is, it is fear, fear mongering, right. That we hear from the media that we’re all, you know, we’re, we’re all in horrible shape financially, countries never been worse off. And I cringe when I hear Trump say it and so many others because it just ain’t true. I wish it were so you’d have a more effective campaign message, but it’s just not true. But again, flip it. You don’t have to, you can acknowledge that it is, and Trump should take credit for it because a lot of this is happening because of what we learned from 2008. But also the Trump economic miracle.

[00:22:21]:
I don’t hear Trump talk about that. Again. I named that in my book, 2016 grassroot prosperity. And it’s exactly right. Trump’s tax cuts, his deregulation and China tariffs, they’re all still in place, or at least 9% of his tariffs, of his deregulations in place. Biden’s added, he’s added to Trump’s china tariffs. And so effective that’s been even Biden hasn’t changed. Tax cuts are still in place now that, you know, they’re due to expire next year.

But again, these are the reasons that the economy is on such firm footing. And that, plus the fact that we learned from what happened in 2008 and we’re taking better control of our lives. And so that’s what’s driving everything here. And so when I say it’s a hundred percent, and when Tyler says it’s 100% that we’re in the roaring 2020s, that’s what we’re talking about, and it’s just getting started. Imagine where we’re going to be at. Trump wins. I don’t, I think more people should be thinking about this because when I’m talking to people and I say, and I say, you know, you really bearish, right? Oh, my God. I think this whole thing could implode.

By the way, I had this conversation with Wayne root almost daily. I said, so you’re really bearish. Although, you know, Wayne’s invested in all that. He understands that. Okay, I’ve gotten this call, right? Maybe I should listen to Kip. And he’s, and he’s finally come around to be more aggressive in the markets, but he still barely sleeps because he’s so afraid of what’s going to happen. And I understand all that. I do.

[00:23:49]:
There’s a lot to be afraid of. But again, fear is that stems from the ego. But I just think that, like so many people, when I say you’re really bearish, how are you going to feel on November 6 if Trump wins? Oh, my God. I’m going to put everything in the market. How many times I’ve heard this? I can’t even tell you all that cash I have, remember, more than six. Still a record amount. It continues to grow. $6.4 trillion in money market funds.

That money is going to fly. I would not be surprised. Matter of fact, for the first time, I’ll say this. If Trump wins, I think the stock market will be up 5% on day one and 10% after day three. That may all happen in day one. That’s the pent up demand that’s out there. And add that to the structural strength we already have. Whoo.

New Nelly. I tell you, Ben, I think that’s what’s going to happen. I just can’t imagine. And again, let’s get back to this reality. I’ll move on after. I’ll make one last personal comment here with my wife on top of this all the time. And we always come back to the same thing. It’s because it’s rigged.

[00:24:59]:
Like, who could you imagine voting for this insanity? Right? No one. No one is. It’s rigged. It’s completely rigged. Now, look, are there far left liberals that are voting for. Of course there are. I’m not saying it’s 100%. Are there government employees that know the government’s likely to be downsized? You’ve seen that Trump’s going to bring in Musk, and they’re going to make sure they reduce costs and get a government back on track, financially speaking, with a bunch of cuts.

So if you’re a government worker, if you work for the government, I can understand, because you always protect our own self interest. I can understand you voting for Harris. Just, just from a financial point of view. I get it from a very limited point of view. Okay. Just to protect your job. Um, if you’re, um, you know, someone that’s in that third America, right, and you are wholly and completely dependent on welfare and other government support, I can completely understand you voting in your own self interest and voting for Harris. What, what percentage of the country do these people represent? I got.

I think in honest election, I think Trump gets 70% of the vote. I think it’s a complete landslide. I think he wins California. I think he wins New York. I think he probably wins all 50 states. No one’s ever done that. Of course. Reagan got 49 against a hapless Mondale.

[00:26:25]:
But, you know, we’ll see, right? We’ll see. Yeah, I think. I think it’s. I think it’d be a complete landslide. It’s that rigged. It’s absolutely that rigged. Let’s hope we don’t have to worry about that, because if they rigged this one with the support that Trump has and the hatred. Hatred that’s out there for Harrison, for the Democrats, I think that’s when we start talking about something really bad happened in this country, civil war ish.

So we’ll see. And again, what we think about bringing. But right. We’re not. We’re getting visual. We’re going to envision great things happening and great things will happen. And that is the way it works. Now, we can talk about alternate realities and simulations, so we can talk about this goes in other directions as well that are interesting.

But look, and right now, again, it’s a weird period of time because it’s October in election years, that’s. That’s a bearish month. Not the whole month, but, like, you know, three weeks or so of it. And we got all these. They’ve got a wall of worry. We got a big wall of worry. I wrote this up this morning. You know, everyone’s waiting for October surprise.

[00:27:34]:
All right, doc. Workers, dry canals, and what is this day? I should, I should know this. I think it’s day three, but it could be day five. We went to buy toilet paper because we didn’t want to have another plandemic experience. And Cindy said that he be our local Heb was barely, didn’t have any of the good stuff, just the, like the single ply, the Heb brand stuff. And then while, went on Amazon and bought some. And, you know, I had to go through four or five choices because it’s happening. Even though 90% of toilet paper is made in the US.

Didn’t know that till yesterday. Buddy of mine in Dallas told me 9% toilet paper is made in the US, so there should not be a problem. Tell the hoarders that. Because the hoarders are out in full force. Right. Obviously it’s happening. Israel and Iran, there’s going to be a counter attack. We’ll see what happens there.

But I think we learned, didn’t we? We learned from the, from, from now, Iran, either directly or through the proxies, has bombarded Israel twice and very, very little damage. So I think that Iran is not, is not a serious military country compared to us. So again, I think that should make people feel a little bit better. Right, about anything that comes up next. And of course, down in North Carolina, what’s happening there is just. You can’t believe it, right? You just can’t believe what’s happening. Are getting very little help. Harris and the Democrats were offering $750 a person, where you’ve already sent 250 billion, probably more than that, to Ukraine, although I saw this, that works out to, for Ukraine citizens.

[00:29:12]:
That 250 billion works out to basically seven, $7,000 a person is what they’ve received per capita, and instead 750 North Carolinians that are just, many of them, just barely now just being reached. And the government seems to be doing very little. I think this could get really bad. I’ve seen numbers of potential deaths here that could, you know, we hate to even speculate on that, but this could be, this won’t be a help, this won’t be a positive for Harris. But again, it’s the Ric job. So how many votes are they going to manufacture? We’ll see. And of course, you know, the, maybe the biggest, maybe the biggest reason for the wall of worry is Trump. And will they assassinate him? They almost did it once.

Like, came within an inch of doing it once. Scary. Frightening. And I think that they’ve proven they’re going to do whatever it takes. It’s scary. There are a lot of reasons to be concerned, but that also is what bull markets thrive off of. It’s a wall of worry. So we’ll see how that plays out.

Okay, let’s take a look at the markets today and the internals. By the way, you’re watching the semis like a hawk here. I think the semis and tech, as always, are going to lead the way out of this. When this period of consolidation is over with, the semis will be sharply high from here. Nvidia reports earnings on November 19. So we got a little bit of a wait there. That’s, of course, the market leader, but that’s okay. We’ve still got our other semis to watch.

[00:30:44]:
And SMH, the semi ETF, which are tracking very closely, not getting a clear signal yet. They are, they were up again today, letting in today. They are leading again, but not like substantially. We’re in a bit of a holding pattern. And again, I think that’s because of where we are with everything we just talked about. Right. Dow Jones today did finish down 184 points, down four tenths, 1%. SVF 100 down two tenths.

Rough 2000 down seven tenths. And Nasdaq down just slightly, down just six points on the day. And we saw in the internals and Nasdaq internals, they were pretty good. I’ll get that in a moment. Semis again. Leather way higher. Up seven tenths, 1%. They are leading again.

It’s just, again, it’s like we’re in a little bit of a waiting period. That’s really all it is. One more thing I wrote this morning is important. The percentage, the number of companies in the S and P 500 that are outperforming the index itself. Because remember, for so long that wasn’t the case. We had like the magnificent seven and everything else was shit. Right? Well, that’s not the case anymore. The percentage of hundred whole stocks inside the S 200 now outperforming the index itself is 69.2%.

[00:31:58]:
That’s the highest reading on record. We’re seeing this in NYC breadth. We see it all time highs. We’re seeing this in so many different indicators. Small caps have gotten, you know, legs. Again, this is broadening action. That is, I think the best word is extraordinary. It is extraordinary.

All time highs would make that so. And we’re seeing a rising tide lift all boats. And it’s happening right before our eyes. And that is extraordinarily bullish. So again, that’s our view longer term. Again, roaring 2020s innovation revolution. We are buyers on dips and we just want to get that best price possible, right? And that’s what we’re doing. Ediardini, by the way, I mentioned a minute ago, just great research he’s putting out.

Again, very few people are picking up on this, but you’ve got a US economy that is roaring. That’s his word. I think he’s exactly right. It is roaring. And at the end of the day, that’s what’s supportive, of course, higher corporate earnings, which means higher stock prices. It’s not more difficult and complicated than that. In our journals today, these have been good again, even on big down days, the internals have held up just fine, and they did again today. Dow down almost 200 points.

[00:33:06]:
NYSE Today it was two to one negative on advanced decline. Nasdaq also two to one negative only. Rent, matter of fact, that’s very close to exactly two to one on both of those. Really happens that way. In our volume today, Nasdaq volume was positive by $700 million worth of trading. That’s pretty good. Nasdaq been a little weak here. And NYSE was negative on volume, not two to one, fairly close to it.

And we did have more. Yeah, we had more stocks at 50 again today than 52 week low. This is now repeating pattern, and that’s important. So again, this is how the bull market evolves and how things begin to change. This is all very normal, what we’re seeing here. And again, if Trump wins, make sure you’re positioned right. I think even if he doesn’t win, the markets are going to be fine, frankly, because again, the structural strength, and if we have a divided Congress, then there’ll be very little that she can do immediately that could hurt us. But of course, it’s the other things they do that really do hurt us.

So anyway, we’re rooting for Trump. But I think either way, the market’s going higher. That’s been our call. And, yeah, we are sticking to that. And our sector watch today, this is not as good. Today we had eight sectors finished lower, three finished higher, led to the downside by consumer discretionary, which has been on a tear, down 1.2%. Materials down 1.1 to the upside. Energy again, leading the way.

[00:34:29]:
Energy stocks trading very well, one and a half percent today. Technology again, also up 610% to 1% in our commodity watch. Gold is, gold is coiling. This is what gold is doing. It’s coiling off of all time highs. Again, we told you last week in extreme overbought on steroids. That’s our most overbought designation in the vera investing system. That happened last week.

And so a little softness here is not surprised. But it’s only barely soft, isn’t it? Today, 26 75, that’s only, what? 27 28, maybe $30 away from an all time high. 26 75 announced right now, up $6 an ounce. Silver up a 37 since an ounce, that’s up 1.1. Back over $32 an ounce. So we’re now seeing this is, again, this is the second highest price silver has ever seen right in this range. And that’s, that’s another positive for the economy. Silver goes in everything, industrial metal, precious metal as well.

Copper down 2.2% today. It’s also been at a tear, though, at 454 pound crude oil against another strong day. This is short covering. It’s short covering in the short term anyway. But crude oil, 7369, up 359 a barrel, 5.1% today. And finally, the day bitcoin, it’s been trading not well. Bitcoin is not leading. It’s now lagging the markets.

[00:35:46]:
That’s, that’s powerful information to know. And so, you know, it lags in both directions. So right now, 60,800. I’ve been meaning to write this up this week and I just haven’t gotten around to it. I’m going to try to get this out tomorrow. Bitcoin post havings. Right? It’s like the first six months. We’re now six months after having.

And after the first six months is when the move really starts. So we’re right. I think I read today we’re like a week away from the typical bottom of bitcoin because it’s the next twelve months where bitcoin tends to get crazy. Crazy to the upside. There’s returns. I think I have those right? Yeah, I do. Check this out. After the first having, I think this is 2012, one year later, bitcoin is up 7900%.

Yeah, that was in 2012. 2016. After 18 months after the first having, bitcoin is up 2900%. In the third having, which is 2020, bitcoin in 18 months is up 700%. And now we’re in the fourth halving, of course it’s ever taken place and we’re six months into it. And this is now when, historically speaking, again, is limited only three of them. So draw from that what you will. But this is when bitcoin tends to go, and I think when it goes, it’s going to be a house on fire again.

[00:37:10]:
We treat bitcoin like we treat gold. We buy it on a monthly basis. Whenever we can, we want to add to our positions in both bitcoin and gold. Not quite so much silver. I’m just a gold bug. That’s why we own silver as well. My holdings, like 80, 2070, 30 net range gold to silver. And again, continue to add to my bitcoin holdings as well.

All right, folks, that’s it for today. Hey, thanks for listening. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see back here again tomorrow after the close. Bye.

Podcast Newsletter

Listen On

Time Stamps

00:00 Expect a dip despite bull market sentiment.
04:21 Bull market is beginning; investors not realizing.
07:47 Gold over Bitcoin: safer, less controllable shutdown.
11:05 Money printing caused inflation, hurting American families.
15:46 Letting go of ego leads to success.
19:03 9/11 led to skepticism about climate change.
21:42 Post-2008 lessons and Trump's economic influence.
25:26 Government workers, welfare-dependent likely support Harris.
29:12 Concerns over funding, government action, Trump threats.
31:23 S&P 500: 69.2% companies outperforming index.
33:31 Stock patterns normal; future market stability expected.
36:36 Bitcoin often surges significantly post-halving events.

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