In today's episode, Kip dives into the details of the much-anticipated first-quarter earnings report from Nvidia, which has generated significant buzz in the market. He emphasizes the momentum behind the innovation revolution that will continue to drive this generational bull market. Tune in for an in-depth analysis of today's financial landscape and see what the VRA Investing System is telling us today.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Wednesday afternoon everyone. Kip Herriage here with the Daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a great day today. We’ve all been keyed up, right? We’ve been talking about this now for, it feels like about a month, but really we have. But it’s all been about Nvidia and their first quarter earnings report.

Well, we just found out just a few minutes ago with a report that, yeah, this validation really is what this is. They beat. They beat by a wide margin. Revenues came and this is pretty. These are astounding numbers. Remember, it’s just a year ago this month that Nvidia kicked off the AI craze. It was the same time the regional banking crisis was happening. Here comes Nvidia saying, hey, we just beat by several billion dollars on revenue.

And boom, the stock goes crazy. The true launch of AI generative AI was born one year ago this month with Nvidia’s report. And so now we get a chance to look back four quarters and see how they performed. And they did not disappoint. Revenues came in at $26 billion versus estimates there were already sky high of 24.69 billion. And they beat on earnings by 60. Excuse me. Fifty two cents a share.

[00:01:14]:
Earnings came in at $6.12 a share. These are big beats. Guidance was fantastic. Revenues grew year over year by 262%. There’s nothing about this number to not like. The shares right now as a trade are up three and a half percent at $986 a share. Stocks up $33 a share right now just shy of $1,000. Of course, it’s an all time high right now.

So, you know, we can be a little brutal to the bears, especially the perma bears, because it’s a clown show. I mean, you just, again, being a perma anything, it’s just not the way you make money in the market. So whenever you see a perma bear, just realize that they’re not a real. They’re not serious investors, right? Most of them are. You know, they’re building a list building business and they use click bait to do it. And they know that fear sells. So just know that. But I got to give the bears credits on this one today because you know what the bears have been saying.

[00:02:10]:
The Nvidia was going back to eleven, and they got it right because the company also announced a ten for one stock split. So instead of being roughly $1,000 a share, which is pretty much what it is now beginning, I think they said in the x date, I believe is in early July, if I got that right. But anyway, in the next month or so, they’re doing a ten for one stock split. So, yes, the stock will be back to $100 a share or so. Good job, bears. You got that right. They also announced an increase in dividend. And again, it’s all about data centers.

85% of their business, indeed, is businesses from data centers installing these new chips and making them generative, AI ready. And they own 80% of this market. So that’s the concern I think, going forward is going to be. How much of this market can they continue to control and to dominate? Because competition is entering. But right now, again, they own 80% of the market. That’s where the growth is. That’s where their business is starting off as a gaming company, making chips for gaming companies. I think Sega maybe was their first client, and then now the company’s completely transformed in a decade.

[00:03:26]:
So it’s really an astounding story. Congratulations, Jensen Wang. His earnings call is starting now. We’ll catch all those details later. But the guidance has been great. And again, the most important thing about this report today is that it’s validation. Yeah, they didn’t miss. Yeah, they exceeded.

That’s great. That was expected, actually. It would have been an absolute shock had they not beat these, their estimates, by a wide margin. But it’s validation that what we’re looking at is real. And I’ll just take you back to 95 to 2000, because it was early on when they started talking about.com. right.com. And then we were trying to make sense of what that meant. Okay.

You know, websites, online shopping. That sounds pretty sexy. Right? But we didn’t know how it was going to be built. We didn’t know the companies actually were going to make that happen. Not just the Amazons of the world, but the ones that are going to build the technology to make it happen. Now we’re getting a much better sense of that because these companies aren’t mysteries. These companies are huge. Nvidia is now the third largest public company on the planet.

[00:04:31]:
Again, just an amazing story here, but there’s another hundred companies like Nvidia that are also thriving. By the way, we love using ETF’s because it just makes it so much simpler. Right. Instead of having to pick the winner, find the ETF that accomplishes what you want, what you need. Buy an ETF. Which is why we use leverage ETF’s because then we get the sector we want and then we get the leverage we want, instead of having to pick one company, which is, by the way, why we’ve never recommended Nvidia, in case you’re wondering. Instead we use soccer, the three time leverage semi ETF, which is up right at about the same amount as Nvidia is over the last year. Actually, soccer is actually up a little bit more.

Not after today probably, but the right neck and neck. So again, you know, it’s a, it’s what, it’s whatever. It’s whatever suits your needs. Right. And what your investing approach is, that’s our approach. ETF’s, instead of individual stocks in many cases, and then growth stocks, of course, are VRA, ten baggers and leveraged ETF’s. That’s where, that’s where we get the added juice. And that’s how we beat the markets by, again, being on the right side of the trade.

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That’s number one as a trend followers we’re running with the market. We don’t to fight the market. Then we use our very investing system to make sure we’re in the right sectors and just keep drilling down and remove, remove all the risk that you can possibly remove. And what you’re left with is that typically we have a diversified portfolio of 1015 holdings, not over diversified. So when one of these really hits, we get the win from it. If you can limit your losses while, you know, being able to outperform the market at the same time, then you’re setting yourself up for a really good run of 510, 1520 years. Where you go, you know what, I just, yeah, I just built generational wealth because I was a little bit smarter than the market and I had a system that worked. And that’s our approach.

Again, congratulations, Nvidia. This is very good news to the semiconductors. Of course, SmH, the semiconductor ETF, just in the after hours now trading at an all time high. And of course, that’s great to see if you’re along this group, as we are, they should be good for trading tomorrow. I doubt there’ll be any, I don’t see any downside surprise from this. I doubt Jensen Wang is very good in front of analysts, and he knows how to play the game. And so I don’t think he’s going to screw the pooch on his, on his analyst call, like maybe like any Elon Musk would. He’ll just say pretty much whatever comes to mind.

[00:07:03]:
Justin Wang is way too smart for that. So I think this is good news. It’s validation. And look, the bottom line, as we’ve been telling you, is the markets are overbought. You know, the markets are overbought, but they’re not extreme overbought. Funny thing is, the one index that was down the biggest today is the Dow Jones. Guess what, it’s also the most overbought. So it is an extreme overbought on steroids.

And so today, Dow Jones finished down 201 points. That’s down half percent. S 500 down quarter percent. Rough 2000 down eight tenths of 1%. Finally, Nasdaq only down slightly down. What is that? Just less than two tenths of 1%. But again, the semis are the tell. They closed up almost 1% higher.

And now in the after hours of about two and a half percent. So this should be good news. But again, you know, when you get these overbought markets, again, we’re not extreme overbought except for the Dow Jones. We have room to run elsewhere. But this is where it does get more difficult to make money. This is where discipline really matters. If you’re coming in right now, let’s say you just came into a lot of money and you want to put to work. This would not be the time to do that, certainly not in these expensive tech sectors.

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There’s nothing wrong with being patient, having some discipline, and waiting. By the way, we’ve been overbought in the, look at the move that’s taking place in the miners, right? Gold’s moved all time high. Silver’s been a house on fire, you know, back to what, 32, $33 an ounce. And look what happened today. Once the sell off started, the hot money came out and that’s what happened. These, this group got hot. We’re in nugt, which is the two time leverage gold miner ETF, which is up 100% in the last two and a half months. Well, it hit extreme overbought and guess where it is now? It’s down 8% today.

Silver today, down. I will cover all the commodities in a bit. But again, you get these shakeouts that take place at when you hit these heavily to extreme overbought levels. And that’s just when discipline kicks in. So for us, it’s not been a sell signal. We contemplated Tylenol, contemplated taking some profits in semiconductors and maybe a couple other positions, but we just never hit extreme mobile steroids. So there’s no reason to sell, there’s no reason to take profits because we think any. We don’t want to get too cute with this bull market.

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This is a generational bull market that’s going a whole lot higher. Again, look at Nvidia, look at what’s happening, this technological revolution, it’s just starting. I would have to say this is the equivalent of mid 1995, if we’re looking. I’ve been saying 96. I don’t even think that’s right. I think we’re about mid 1995. We’re that early in this boom time. That’s what’s important to remember.

And just to make a macro point, Tyler and I had this conversation. Today. We are in an era of unbelievably easy money. That’s no mystery. Right? We see the government spending, we see government deficits, we see the stimulus has been inserted and forced into the economy. We see $34 trillion in debt. We see a government that doesn’t care. There is no concern about these debt levels.

And this is really no different than what’s happening globally. But here’s the key to point, to remember, this is the era we live in. This is it there. This is. This is a money printing, easy money, laissez faire setup. And do you see any signs of changing? No. So what we’re left with is a decision. The decision is we can stay really conservative and keep the money in cash, which is the exact wrong decision, because that’s what’s being printed away.

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That’s what’s being RPI. Currencies were being printed into oblivion. The last thing you want to do is be sitting on pile of cash and watch it be devalued every year by five to 10%, because that’s what’s happening and that’s what’s going to continue to happen, almost certainly. Instead, our approach has been, hey, we see what’s happening. How do we profit from it? Oh, we have to beat inflation. We have to beat the money. Printers, how do we do that? We own inflationary assets, right? We own real estate, housing, bitcoin, gold, obviously, equities, gold, silver, etcetera. The whole person group, miners as well.

We want to own investment investments that can beat inflation. And that’s where you have to go. And again, the following question that is, well, kit, that sounds like a smart plan, except when the rug gets pulled. What do we do then? Well, you start looking for the signs. You start looking. And when you start seeing an economy this weekend, that’ll be the housing market. That’ll be the housing market. You start seeing prices fall.

[00:11:41]:
You start seeing houses, housing stocks, stock prices of housing will start to plummet. You start to see distress in the economy, signs of stress, economy that’s gotten way too levered up and we’re just not there. A reminder, corporate debt to market cap is in a 50 year low. We don’t have leverage. We have almost a lack of leverage in corporate America. How about individuals? You ask all the horror stories you hear about how heavily indebted individuals are. Consumer credit card debt just topped a trillion dollars. Who cares? That’s a number.

It doesn’t matter. What matters is over the last 15 years, just like corporations have, individuals have reduced our debt by 25%. We learn from the financial crisis. We don’t have a lot of leverage for consumers. Regardless of what you may be hearing on the Lamestream media, those are lies. The truth is this economy has yet to lever up. What we’re seeing is what we see at the birth, at the birth of economic expansions, not the end. So the point being, again, the takeaway.

[00:12:50]:
Enjoy this ride. Understand that there are risks. Understand at some point, yeah, there’ll be a reckoning. No one knows when that’s going to be again. I got into business in 1985. I had senior brokers telling me, I mean, I’m just, every day I heard this, our debt levels are going to ruin us all, folks. That was 1985 and the same song is being sold today. So if this is the Roman Empire, if that’s the track that we’re on, it took a, it took a hundred years for the Roman Empire to collapse.

Where are we in that cycle? I don’t know. No one knows. I can just tell you that we are nowhere near the end. We believe, as we said for some time, we’ve entered an innovation revolution. It’s going to change everything. We’re seeing proof of that now. And this is going to take this economy to heights we’ve never imagined before. Yeah, there’ll be negatives.

There always are. You got to look past those, evaluate the risk, make sure you’re personally protected, you’re personally diversified, but you got to have exposure to inflation, airy assets. That’s the winning formula here. It’s been the winning formula. We believe it’ll continue to be the winning formula. And again, when the signs of stress start to pop up, you know, we’ll see them, we know what to look for and we’ll start warning everyone. You know what, we’re raising cash, we’re moving, we are now. We’re moving into cash or to, you know, short, short term treasuries, etcetera.

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And we’re going to raise cash and we’re going to wait for this market to this reckoning to take place. And then in two, three, four years when everything is bottomed out, we’re going to be buying cheap real estate, cheap stocks. Right. And it’s just rinse and repeat. Rinse and repeat. But again, the key point, I believe, is that this cycle is just beginning. We believe that GDP growth is going to skyrocket from here. Cathie woods team believes we’re going to an era of six to 8% GDP growth for 20 to 30 years.

Now, I’m not going to be that optimistic. We’re pretty optimistic. That’s even more so than we are. Let’s just say GDP growth averages 4% for a decade. What does that mean for stocks? It means corporate earnings gonna skyrocket. That means the stock market is gonna do what we’ve been saying is going to do. The Dow Jones is going to 100,000, Nasdaq’s going to 40,000. Folks, we got a long way to go, so we’re going to keep being smart.

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We’re going to, we’re going to be disciplined when the markets overbought based on very invested system readings. And then, and then, and then we’ll deploy more cash as we hit extreme oversold and we’ll move from sector to sector and stock to stock. Not in a day trader fashion. I know it sounds like I’m talking really fast and throwing a lot at you, but it’s not that way at all. You know, barring a crash. Right. A black swan event, which is always possible. That’s why we stay diversified in gold, silver, bitcoin, etcetera.

Barring that. Again, we think it’s boom time. We think it’s an economic boom time. And I’ll be very candid with you because I had this conversation with people, I won’t mention names. If I said their names, you know them. It’s kind of hard not to laugh in some people’s face. The ones that just can’t get out of the past and believe that tomorrow, if Biden wins, the whole, the whole country is going to shit. No, that’s not what’s going to happen.

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Do you know why I know that? Because the wealthiest among us, like nine out of the ten wealthiest people in America are leftist. They’re liberals. Let’s just call it what it is, uniparty. Okay. It’s all one party anyway, right? These folks do not act against their own self interest. They’re the largest owners of land. They’re the largest owners of housing. They’re the largest investors in the stock market.

They’re the largest investors in the bond market. They have more ownership of businesses than anyone else. Why would they want to crash the economy when it would impact them the most? So these are common sense points that we think more people should be making and listening to. And again, we have a rising tide here, folks, that’s going to continue to take corporate earnings higher and consumers that are paying attention. Don’t get caught up in the negativity and the sigh up. A negativity that is very clear. It’s very real, it’s very coordinated. I’m certain of it.

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Right. Because for yourselves. But the consumers stay locked in and can recognize opportunities to see it. This is a chance to build generational wealth. And so that’s what we’re focused on. Energy, commodities, housing, real estate, cryptocurrencies, everything that cryptocurrency represent. There’s another industry that’s just getting started. Oh, my God.

Think of the wealth that’s going to be in the opportunity and the transformation that’s going to take place from what are now SEC recognized commodities. Right. Ether is about to follow. Again, Tyler covetously, the Biden administration. No, no, no. On ether. No, no, no, no. Cryptocurrencies.

Right? Negative, Nick. And now they see the Trump is viewed as the crypto guy. They flipped faster than you could possibly imagine. And now they’ve told the SEC, go ahead and approve it. Yeah, it’s trying to buy both, just like they do with the student loan. Not nonsense. And it’s so transparent. But again, all we got to do is play that game.

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And the game is easy money, folks. And so we’re going to continue to stay locked in and find the best possible investments because this is that bull market. This will be the last big bull market of my career. That’s what I believe. And I think after that, we’re going to have a reckoning. I don’t know where it’s 510 15, 2030 years from now. And then we’ll go short. We’ll sell, we’ll take profits, we’ll go short the market.

We’ll make a portion there, and then I’ll probably call it quits, and then it’ll be Tyler’s operation to run. But anyway, we’ll take it a day at a time because no one’s got a game plan that’s perfect. As Mike Tyson said, everyone’s got a game plan until they get punched in the face. And so let’s just try to avoid getting punched if at all possible. All right, what else? Today, again, as I said earlier, we have reached overbought levels. We’re not putting new money to work in most areas, especially not in tech, etcetera. But again, we’ll let you know when that changes. I will tell you that I think this shakeout in precious metals and miners is going to give us another really good entry opportunity, and we’re going to be looking for that.

[00:19:20]:
I don’t think that’s quite yet. Again, you reach these overbought levels. It just takes a little time for things to shake out. So we’ll just be a little patient here and we’ll keep piling into our VRA. Ten baggers love Tesla here, for example, and of course, our favorite stocks that we recommend in the VRA. And we’ll let the markets take care of themselves. Remember, though, this is a very bullish time, seasonally speaking. Rich Ross of Evercore, I focused on him this morning in our very letter.

Ben, we are. He’s good. He’s very good. And I always feel more confident when we’re in agreement. And we are in agreement, seasonality wise, sentiment wise. Technically, all of these signs are pointing to higher prices. This is one of the best times to be an investor in the presidential election year is now really, mid May through August is a great time to be an investor. And again, we’ve got competing forces that are melting the market up.

[00:20:14]:
The Fed wants to melt the market up to help their guy win. The SEC now is allowing ether ETF and of course, bitcoin ETF to help their guy win. So everybody’s competing. But the end result of that is everything’s making the markets go up. We’ve got a very good setup as the powers that be goose the economy and goose the markets into November to help their side win. It’s all out war there. And, you know, they’ve already rigged an election. Who knows how many they’ve rigged.

So, yeah, if you think they’re above that, I’m just sorry to tell you you were wrong. And you may be a little naive. It’s okay. I used to be younger, too. But let’s take advantage of this environment, right. This is an advantage environment to make some money. And then, you know, maybe we’ll have a shakeout after the election, which is kind of how I think it’s going to play out. But we’re going to stay long and strong and locked in, in this bull market of bull markets as it, as it, as it rolls on.

[00:21:14]:
Okay, let’s take a look at the internals. They were not great today, not horrible either, but they certainly weren’t good. Again, these are the kind of things that happen we get overbought two to one. Do simple math here. Round up, round down two to one for advanced decline. Both Nasdaq and NYSE volume actually was positive by more than $2 billion worth of trading in Nasdaq today, which is pretty interesting. A lot of these small caps are. They’re captured in there.

It’s getting harder and harder to make sense of some of this, but it’s good to see a two to one beat. Good to see more than 2 billion upside volume. The downside volume, conversely, NYC was almost just the opposite, basically right at two to one negative, about $1 billion more to selling than buying for NYC today, we did have a positive reading on new 50 highs and lows. About 50 more stocks hitting a new 50 week high than hitting a new 52 week low. Intersect to watch. Not great here, either. Eight of eleven sectors finished lower, but energy down 1.8%. Again, a complete shakeout in the commodity space today that was across the board.

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Again, this is setting up a buying opportunity. Once these shakeouts happen, they tend to move fast because the hot money is the first to leave and that creates a vacuum. And then you see these downsized moves that make no sense because they don’t make sense and they’re opportunities. That’s what the smart money looks at. Find your favorite groups. When craziness takes place and these vacuums occur, be ready to pounce. And again, that’s what we’ll be doing here. Energy, they again led the downside, down 1.8%.

Utilities also down 1%. Not much else elsewhere. Really very little up. Healthcare today, up two cent, 1%. That was really about it. Commodity watch again, shakeout here. Gold today down dollar, 43. Now it’s back below 23 for 2400, which I didn’t want to see.

It’s not that it’s not really a significant technical level, but I really hope to see 2500 before we saw any kind of a shakeout. We didn’t quite get there. Gold last trade, $2,382. Nothing about this shakeout changes our story and our view of pressure metals miners at all. Except this creates another opportunity on the buy side. Silver again, got whacked 3.4% again. It’s been red hot right now. Down $1.09 at $30.98 an ounce.

[00:23:39]:
Copper got smoked 6% again. Red hot again. Creates a vacuum. Hot money leaves. Same stories, same song. Second verse. Copper, $4.80 a pound, again. All time highs of yesterday, right.

Crude oil, as I said earlier, that’s hit a little bit today. Down a buck 40 a barrel. That’s down 1.7% at 7726. And finally today, I’m kind of surprised bitcoin hasn’t been hit. So hit it’s actually up 69,272. What does that make it? It’s up nine and a half percent in the last seven days, down a half percent in the last 24 hours. But I think that tells you the strength that’s in. That’s in bitcoin is what I think ether, by the way, for following it was up slightly today.

[00:24:25]:
Right now, 37, 41. We don’t have a position in ethereum. We’re bitcoin only. At least that’s how we stand now. We want to be with the king of the hill. And I believe that is, that will, is and will continue to be bitcoin. Our target on that by year and remains 100,000. I actually think we’re going to get all time highs of 73,400.

So what is that, $3,500 away from all time high? I think that’s going to happen in the very near future. Bitcoin chart looks fantastic. It’s ready to break out. And then just the list of new buyers that come into bitcoin every day, swapping the number of coins being mined on a daily, weekly, monthly basis at some point. Again, it’s the best supply demand. This is simple to say it. There is no better supply demand story on the planet. It is bitcoin.

[00:25:16]:
And as I like to remind every now and then, I’ll leave you with this. One of these days, we’re going to see an announcer that a sovereign wealth fund, that a sovereign wealth fund has purchased bitcoin for the first time. I think insanity takes place then I think clear trading insanity takes place because it’s going to happen. Right. And that’s where the big private, semi private money, if you will, for example, Norway’s got the largest sovereign wealth fund, $1.4 billion in size. China’s got the next two, both over a trillion dollars inside both, China has two, both over a trillion dollars in size. Matter of fact, China’s is only short, just a little bit lower than Norway’s government pension fund global, which is what they call it, the sovereign wealth fund. And then you got Saudi Arabia, which I think Saudi Arabia will have.

Their sovereign wealth fund is 700 billion. I think it’ll be Saudi Arabia or Norway will be the first to purchase bitcoin and to announce it. They may be buying it now, probably are, and just not announcing it yet. There’s a lag time from where they disclose their holdings. I think that’s happening. But when that becomes public along with all the other people that are buying bitcoin, it’s going to get crazy. And so I think it’s, it’s possible that bitcoin ends the year over 200,000 again, we just, it just, it, you never know, right? But with supply demand stores like this, you only want to bet on one side. That’s the long side.

I would never, ever, ever short bitcoin or any etfs, I think you’re playing with fire. You want to play from the long side and then when it gets extremely bought, pause your buying, wait for a big sell off and then add to positions. That’s our approach and that’s what we’re going to continue to do. All right, folks, I always appreciate you listening. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.