In today's episode, Kip covers the day's exciting market action as stocks continue to hit new highs in the wake of the beginning of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle. We’ll explore the implications of this move and the potential political motivations behind it. He also discusses today's leadership from tech and the semis, and what it means going forward for stocks. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Thursday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the Daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a great day today. If you’re long this market, you certainly did have a good day today. Tyler covered this in the podcast yesterday, much better than I can as our resident Fed watcher. But yeah, it was the Fed’s rate hike yesterday. You know, it caught some people, not us.

It caught some people by surprise. Matter of fact, it caught the final number. Data came in, 92% of economists in the country expected the Fed to cut by a quarter of a point. Of course, they cut by half a point. And some of us have been predicting that for a couple of months. And look, it was there just a lot of bears out there. And that’s the crazy thing about this market. There’s still so many bears in their trap now, especially with the seasonality being negative.

[00:00:52]:
It’s got people on the wrong side of the market. That’s when you get these big outsized moves, especially when I, you have this all important news, new, new market cycle to consider, which is don’t fight the tape, don’t fight the Fed. For four years, we had not had a rate cut. Remember the last time the Fed goes in 2020. So, you know, we’d had a rate hiking cycle. Well, that is gone now, isn’t it? So now we have a rate cutting cycle. The Fed is going to cut aggressively over the next year, likely longer. And the markets love this.

So we have markets at all time highs that happen again today, of course, the SB 500 and Dow Jones all time high. And now the Fed’s cutting. And let’s just think about this. Tyler talked about this yesterday, too. What could possibly be one of the reasons that the Fed cut by a half a percent? Could it be that we have an election coming up? Could it be that over 90% of all the Fed members are Democrats that vote democratic? Could it be that Kamala Harris is struggling to gain traction? The polls, I know no one that believes them. Look at the way they’re structured. Look at the oversampling of Democrats. You find out real quick that they’re rigged.

Surprise, surprise. Just like a lot in this economy today, right, including our Federal Reserve rigging things. Well, they did it again, likely with this rate cut, because they got to do whatever they can to try to help their girl get elected and because that’s the way the state operates. I just have to say, because I get pushback on this, there are still people out there, a lot of people, Wall street people that believe the Fed is not political. And honestly, when I meet someone that says this, or I speak to someone or hear from someone that says this, you know, my first thought is deer in the headlights, right? Drinking the Kool Aidan. And usually with these people, they’re beyond help at this point. I mean, if you’re a grown. If you’re a grown man or a grown woman and you still believe that the Fed is apolitical, and if you still believe that the state doesn’t rig things, if you still believe anything that really comes from this government today, I just.

[00:03:14]:
I don’t know. I don’t. I don’t really. I think we’re just very different people. We’re just very, very different people. Look, I know who’s on this podcast listening today. I know you’re all in agreement with me, but I tell you the truth, there’s a flip side to this, and this is the point of view. We’ve tried to make this point, really from the plan demic on, we’ve made this point.

These are the people that are our competition. It’s like if you’re being chased by a bear, you don’t have to run the bear. You have to outrun the other guy behind you, right? What we have to do, we have to beat our competition. Our competition that believes in the things that, again, they’re sheep. They’re frankly, they’re sheep. Well, we have to beat them. And that makes our job a lot easier. It gives us a real advantage.

And so that’s why, number one, being a contrarian is very powerful when it comes to a number of things in life. But certainly when it comes to the markets, understanding how the smart money operates, understanding the sigh of negativity, well developed sigh for negativity has been in place. It is stunning to me, the number of people as we hit all time high, after all time high, after all time high, right? Being led by the semis, being led by tech. I mean, these are all the bells and whistles that you look for, all the tells, right? The signals that tell you that you must be long the market. But to see these folks that are still trying to convince people that the market’s going to crash the next 2008, right around the corner, you know, again, I’ll just say that, you know, at least when you find these people, you know, this is, this is not someone that should be in your inner circle. This is not someone that you should be build a mastermind group with. For those that have read that thinking, grow rich. You know what I’m talking about having a very tight group of people that you trust means you no longer have to watch and get your news and your, make your opinions based on what’s on mainstream media.

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Right. And so again, that I think, honestly, we have so many amazing members here. We get so many of our great information and research from you. Keep that coming. We have a great community here. We want to stay on the right side of this market. We want to keep crushing Mister Market because I promise you this, Mister Market has one goal, to crush us. Right? And so, again, being a contrarian helps, but being a smart money investor helps even more.

Let’s talk about that today a little bit because there’s so many things happening here. I actually have to keep this, a bit of a short podcast today. I’ve got, I got an interview coming up. I’m also going to be tonight on Wayne Allen roots guest on Real America’s voice that airs starting at 10:00 Eastern. Hope you can join us. We’ll try to get that clip for you before for the morning letter in the morning. If not, just watch Wayne’s show. As always, Wayne’s entertaining and he brings it every single night.

He just interviewed Trump for the 16th time. I guess there’s maybe some, maybe Sean Hannity is interviewing Trump more than Wayne, but I think that’s probably about it. Wayne and Trump have become very good friends. And I think that’s very cool, right? We are, we’re just one step away, right? We’re one degree of separation away from the former president, hopefully the next president of the United States. And the thing about Wayne, this amazing because I pitched him on this. If Wayne’s doing an interview, I go to Wayne and say, ask him this, right? And, you know, it usually winds up us having a debate about whether I should ask mister, Mister Trump that President Trump that question. But often I watch the interview. Wayne works the man.

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I know a lot of you have the same relationship with Wayne, and it’s very cool, you know, so it’s, we’re having a lot of fun here. And hopefully inside of what, a month and a half now, we have a lot more fun because I think that’s what the markets are telling us here, by the way. I really do. I believe the markets are telling us with this move higher that it’s going to be Trump. There is no better discounting mechanism than the stock market. And this is, this is when the market starts to discount what’s about to happen. This is the market being a predictor. I believe this now at the same time, if Harris wins, is the market going to get cracked? No, I don’t think so.

This is a structural bull market. But remember, after Biden got elected, the day after his inauguration, take a look at the charts. The stock market began to get hammered. Right? And so, yeah, we definitely won’t get the kind of returns if Harris wins that we’ll get with Trump because Trump wins. And again, I asked this question to so many people, and I love the look on their face when I ask them, like, you’re really, really bearish. You’re really, really worried, what’s your investment position going to be if Trump wins? And they’re like, oh, I’m going to buy. I’m going to go along. Well, I think you shouldn’t wait is what I’m saying here.

I think it’s days like today that point to that, to that being the case. All right, again, very strong day today. Throughout the day, it’s just a constant bid under the market against so many people on the wrong side of this market. Dow Jones said he finished up 1.2%. SPo hundred up 1.7%. Roast 2000 up 2.1%. Ross Malka has been on a tear. Very good sign for the economy.

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Nasdaq up 2.5%. And here’s our big tail. Right? Smh, the semi ETF up more than 4% today. Had been up as much as 5.3% today. But a great day here. Again, semis. Still, even after today, the semis are 14% below all time highs. Guess what is that called? That’s called a gift.

That’s called a gift, folks. Because we are in the innovation revolution, semis and tech will continue to lead the way. Anytime you can buy something that’s about to go back to an all time high, and it’s almost a slam dunk. I hate to even say that because, you know, the investing gods don’t care, little g, investing gods don’t care for that kind of attitude. So apologies for that, investing gods. But anytime you can buy a group with high certainty, I’ll put a high degree of probability and certainty that we’re going to go back to all time highs and then a lot more because the semis are just getting started. This is any one, any one that’s not the AI boom. That’s too limiting.

This is the innovation revolution powered by our five megatrends from the big bribe. These are all playing out right now. So 14% below all time high, the semis remain a buy. I shared the chart with everyone this morning in our very letter. Look at that chart. Before the open today, the semis are actually more closer to being oversold on the VRA system in our momentum oscillators. Closer to being oversold than it is overbought. That’s how far the semis can still run before even sniffing being overbought.

[00:10:05]:
So, still a great setup. But again, textbook day, right? Textbook semi is at 4%, Nasdaq up 2.5%. Everything else trailing those two, repeat. This is textbook full market action, without any doubt about it. There’s so much going on here. And again, I’ve got a little bit of a limited time here, but let’s talk about some other things that really matter here. Again, this is the beginning of the Fed’s rate cutting cycle. This is extraordinarily bullish.

I’m seeing so much bad info, just disinformation, misinformation out there about, and I think it’s really confusing people about rate cutting cycles. And they qualify them, they break them down. Oh, no. When this, and this, and this happens, then rate cutting cycles are bearish. No, no, no. These people are trying to confuse you. I don’t know why exactly. They have their own motivation, I’m sure.

But all that matters is as long as the economy is not going into recession. This economy is not going into recession. Economies don’t go into recessions when home prices are at all time high, consumer net worth is at all time high, credit scores all time high. I can just keep, we’ve covered this ad nauseam, right, for so long. But this is not a recessionary environment. Shame on these people. I’m talking about people that call themselves investment experts, that are confusing people and leading them astray by saying that, oh my God, they cut rates by half point. That must be the sign.

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You don’t do that in a strong economy. That’s just not the way this works. But again, back to the point. And the reason is that they’re cutting you, rates should never been the same. Rate should never been this restricted in the first place. Right? The Fed funds rate should never have been 5.33%, should never have been that high. They hike too much and that’s why they’re continuing to cut because rate inflation has disappeared. We now have disinflation.

Next year we’ll have pure deflation next year. Think about that. Pure deflation next year. Not many people are predicting it. We’ve been predicting it. We’re standing by it. Just like we were predicting a half point cut yesterday from the Fed. And so many other things that frankly, we’ve gotten right.

That’s just because I’ve done this 40 years. I’m a simple Texas guy, but I understand the importance of our VRA investing system. I understand the importance of, again, having a really good group of people that you trust, experts that you trust, and put out good data, usable data, not the, not the phony stuff that the perma bears put out, the list builders. Right? All they’re doing is trying to use fear mongering because they know that fear sells. And then once you sign up for the list and all the negative, the bears always sound so smart. I’ve said this for years. They sound so, so smart, but they always lose to the bulls. They’re right a couple of times a decade, if I’m being honest.

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And then other than that, they’re on the wrong side of the market because again, as long as the economy grows, again, consumer net worth at another all time high, as long as the economy is growing and consumers are making more than they’re losing to inflation. And that is the case right now, then the stock market, corporate earnings keep going up, stock markets going to keep going up. So again, the question now is about the rate cuts. The only time that rate cuts are negative for the market is when the market is about to hit a recession. That happened. These are the two cycles points that they point to. In 2001, the Fed started cutting and we went into recession. Well, guess what else happened? Yeah, we had 911 with the.com top, right? We had a, we already had a big slowdown happen in the economy because tech stocks were on their way to dropping 75% in the Nasdaq right after the.com top.

And then we had 911. So we had a recession. Yeah, you bet. They cut rates. Yeah, we went to recession. That was not a good, that was not a bullish sign because we’re not bullish. Then the other time they started cutting rates in 2007, 2008. Well, we had a big housing top then, right? We had the financial crisis coming on.

This is not that. Just know this. This, this is not that. This is a bullish cut. The Fed will continue to cut rates for the first time. And sometime yesterday, Jay Powell actually did a good job, did his job. Still the worst fed chair in history, at least in my lifetime. But we give him a very light, a very light golf clap for his job yesterday.

[00:14:43]:
Let’s see here. You know, we’ve been patting the table, you know, the groups we’ve been putting the tape on again, semis, tech, Tesla, the miners, again, days like this make it feel like it’s an everything bull market. It’s really not. We want to be in the groups and the stocks that are going to appreciate the most and that’s, those are the ones we’ve been targeting. We’ll let you know when we start getting towards overbought levels. We’re just not there yet, even after today. Now we’re running our charts and screens tonight. We’ll give you a full update tomorrow.

Tomorrow’s very letter. But outside of stochastics on a few indexes beginning to reach, getting just barely to reach overbought levels, we ain’t there. I mean, frankly, this market, folks, so many people, because seasonality has held up so, so well over the last two years. It really has. But nothing’s perfect. And so many people sold stocks because, oh boy, do I mention names? Do I mention names? No. You know, I’m not going to do it to them because these are good people and they’re friends of mine, but they, their market timing signals have told people to get out of the market. You might know who I’m talking about.

I can think of three different advisors, and again, these are friends of mine, but they’ve advised, based on bearish September’s and based on this being the worst two weeks of the year, they’ve advised people to get out. We just didn’t see it. We didn’t see it in the internals. We didn’t see it in leadership. After the July to early August shakeout, that was it. The August 5 bottom has been the low. Again, everything is held up. Again, we got ten out of twelve.

[00:16:22]:
VRA system screams bullish let’s just back up the truck territory, especially on dips. That’s why again, I’ll repeat it one more time. Buying the dip, we believe will remain the smartest of smart money strategies for a very long time. We see this market going one hell of a lot higher. Again, not based on who’s president, but based on the fact it’s a structural bull market with stocks that are just going to go a lot higher. Innovation, revolution, all that, right. Also, you know, we are now, how many trading days is this? We are, was it nine trading days away from the beginning of the best quarter of the year, right. That’s called the melt up quarter, fourth quarter.

And so again, you know, we’ll keep you in the loop here. Right now we’re long and strong. We see no reason to take any profits or take any other action. They continue holding our positions. We will soon get to the point that buying them is not the right move. We’re just not quite there yet. It’s still safe to buy, especially after daylight today in our sector, in our commodity, in our internals today, again, this is what we look at. This is the evidence that tells us this market is on extremely firm footing because the internals have just been rock solid.

They were again today. Advanced decline. NYSE four to one positive against decline. Nasdaq three to one positive. These are very strong readings. Up volume. Both exchanges to 72% plus up volume today, again, rock solid. And then this is the third day in a row, folks.

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Third day in a row. We’ve had more than 700 stocks combined, Nasdaq, NYC combined, more than 700 stocks hitting a new 52 week high. That’s three days in a row. Been a long time since that’s happened to just 103 hitting a new 52 week low. Big number, 794 stocks hitting a new 62 week high. And our sector wise today also rocked solid. Eight of eleven sectors finished higher. Frankly, it was really 1111 because the three that weren’t high were barely lower, but led the upside by, you guess it, technology at 3%.

Consumer discretionary, 2.2%. Communication services, which is essentially tech, also used to be just tech, and they created this new sector, communication services. Amazon, Netflix, etcetera, up 1.9%. Commodity watch. Again, we pound the table on the miners pounding the table on gold, to a lesser degree, silver. But look, I think silver, because when silver gets rolling, it outperforms gold. Are we ready for that yet? I don’t know. You know, we’re basically, and this has been the case for a very long time, between 70 and 80% gold and then 20 and 30% silver, depending on the cycle we’re in.

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And that’s where we are now. We have started taking some profits over the last year and adding to our bitcoin position. But again, bitcoin is a. Look, we have a sizable position in it, recommend a sizable position. But what is that? Everyone’s different. Everyone’s got a different risk reward set up. Right? That’s up to you. Because, look, bitcoin was on fire today, right? But bitcoin is lagging.

Now, this is interesting. There are cycles where bitcoin leads the stock market. We actually love that cycle because it gives us. It gives us another early buy signal, right? We’re just not getting that now. Bitcoin is lagging, but when it does catch up, it tends to send another buy signal for the markets. That’s what’s happened today. Bitcoin now back over 63,000, up over 5% today. That’s good to see.

What are we now, 10,000 away from all time high? We’re. September is not a great month, typically for bitcoin, but when you factor in the fact that the having is taking place this year, we now are getting into a cycle where now, through the next four to five months, is extraordinarily bullish for bitcoin historically. Add in the having and it’s even more so. Our year in targets been 100,000. Will we get there? There’s still plenty of time for it. Obviously, a few more days like this, everyone be talking about it. But more importantly, this is, we’re in. We’re in bitcoin now for the long run.

[00:20:34]:
Right? This is, this is that. We’re looking for a cycle high of about 250,000 of bitcoin on this move. Call it 2345 years in that ballpark. Extraordinary turns directly ahead for bitcoin holders. Same thing, by the way, for the miners. Impressive metals and the miners, this is a seasonally bullish time for them. From now to February is a great time to own this group. And so, look, you know what? There’s so many reasons for this market to go up, aren’t there? The state wants Harris to win.

We must, they must melt the market up. Right? Because trust me when I tell you, a stock market that’s soaring is very good news for Kamala Harris. As much as we hate to admit it, it is, you know, it wouldn’t matter who the president was. This makes her look better because she’s part of administration where the stock market is soaring. If that continues to happen, it’s something Trump’s going to have to battle. I’ve been a broken record on this. Trump is not winning votes by trying to convince people that the economy sucks because the economy does not suck. What he should be doing, in my humble opinion, is reminding people that the economy is doing great as it is, as it clearly is.

Best economy probably in our lifetimes for both consumer and certainly for american companies. Without question, there’s never been a stronger period for corporate America than we’re in right now as far as talking about the financial point of view. But one of the reasons this market is doing as well, the economy is doing as well, is because of Trump. The Trump economic miracle, it was his tax cut still in place, his deregulation still in place, 90% still in place. And is China tariffs they’ve only added to them. It’s for those reasons that the economy is doing so well, and hence the stock market is doing well. That’s the approach I think you should take. But again, I understand why he’d want to try the other because you know what, boy, very few people we talk to agree with us.

[00:22:30]:
Very few people. When we tell people how strong the economy is, even though we show these facts over and over and over, and we have since we wrote the big bribe almost two years ago, people look at us like we got two, three heads. Well, you know, in my interview with Wayne tonight, I’ll see if I can’t get away with saying it again before Wayne cuts me off. I don’t think Wayne’s a big fan of me saying that the economy is rocking and rolling, but it is. He actually knows that. But again, that doesn’t get people out to vote for Trump, and I understand that. So again, commodity watch today. I thought what I really thought today, look, they’ve been on a tear.

I thought today would have been a better day for commodities. I really did. And in the pre market, they were looking great. Gold at an all time high. The miners up at one point this morning, up over two and a half percent. And then we had a little bit of give back. Still a good day. Gold up dollar 13 an ounce at 26.12 an ounce.

Silver up $0.42 now to 31.11. Copper up four cents a pound at four hundred thirty four a pound. This whole group charts look great. The whole group is bullish. Crude oil bouncing back over 71 a barrel. We like, we like energy stocks, not crude oil so much. Drill, baby, drill has its consequences. A lot of drilling, a lot of energy production.

[00:23:46]:
Unless demand picks up, then you know what that means. But again, crude oil today, oil today up one and a quarter a barrel at 71.13. And finally, the day bitcoin again, we just covered that one last time. Fresh quote, 61,060, 3000. Excuse me, 165, up 4.8% in the last 24 hours. All right, folks, that’s it for the day. Hey, always appreciate you listening. Hope you had a great day and even better night.

We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close. Bye.