In today's episode, Kip breaks down a dynamic day in the markets, highlighting the powerful rotational moves between major indexes and the signs of a broadening, healthy bull market. Kip shares insights from his 40 year investing career, explaining why he's the most bullish he’s ever been and what indicators he’s watching like stocks trading above their 50 and 200 day moving averages to gauge the market’s strength.

Look back, the market is closed. Good Wednesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Had another big day in the markets today. As you, I’m sure you’ve seen by now, Tyler got a big one yesterday. I got a big one at least for the Dow Jones today. Nasdaq was only at 31 points, a tenth of a percent.

But if you look at the charts, frankly, today is what you thought. This is the way it should happen. And we get, we get into these rotations where it’s almost, it’s very predictable. If I was a day trader, again, that’s how I’d be trading it because NASDAQ is the most overbought chart. What’s the most oversold is Dow Jones. And today, Dow Jones up 463 points, up 1%. What’s breaking out, Russ? 2,000 small caps up 2% today. Just that great back to back big, big green candle days for the rust, 2,000 for small caps.

[00:00:53]:
So again, just a rotational theme. This is what really we’ve been focused on for some time because your most healthy, your healthiest bull markets are the ones that do exactly this. Some groups get hot, others get a little cold. But it’s this ongoing rotational theme. So the money never leaves the market.

The money just, it just moves to a different area. And this is what really can extend the bull market and will and has been extending its bull market. And we think it’s going to continue for a long time. I’ll just say this one more time. Probably a lot more by the time I’m done with saying it. But this is the most bullish I’ve been in my 40 years in the business. I said that. No, probably no fewer than 50 times in this podcast since the October bottom of 2022.

And this is that bull market. That’s, that’s how we’ve been approaching this. Like nothing. Trees don’t grow to the sky overnight. You know, we’ll get overbought to a point that it’s time to pause our buying or maybe even take some profits. But, you know, one of the things that we look at is kind of a, I think it’s the bellwether for me for, for really judging a market being overbought. Now we have our indicator called extreme overbought on steroids. And that’s when every one of our momentum oscillators hits extreme overbought at the same time.

[00:02:06]:
So the hints on steroids, that, that’s when we absolutely stop Buying and maybe even in our leverage UTs, maybe it’s the time to sell depending on the market, you know, the, where the market is at the time. But even better than extreme overbought on steroids, right? Or vice versa, extreme oversold on steroids depending on what market you’re in. It’s the percent of stocks above the 50 day and the 200 day. Because right now both of these readings are at 60%. This is kind of crazy and again I have very few people talking about this. It’s such a reliable indicator. Right now just 60.4% of the S P500 is above the 50 day and 60.2%, almost identical numbers, 60.2% is above the 200 day. Why is that significant? Because before we had our little overbought shakeout of last week, market lost 2% and all of a sudden here came the, here came the fear mongers.

You saw it, right? We had a 2% down day and all of a sudden, you know, the fear and greed index flipped from 73 to 50. The AAI investor sentiment survey fell to where bears had a lead of 10%.

So we’ll actually get the updated AI tonight. But this is the, this is kind of the, the characteristic of a market that is early in this bull market run anytime you get a little shakeout and here come the bears, you see it in all our indicators and this, it happened here too. We got to a reading of about 75% above the 50 day and 70, like 73% above the 200 day and then that was it. But see the thing is until these readings get to frankly, frankly 90, but you get, you get mid-80s, you get 85, 86, that that’s a sign because the thing is so many people watch that, right? This is why technical analysis works because we’re all watching the same things. So it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. It’s the same thing with this. But until these readings get to the 85% area, Tom, we’re just not going to be taking profits and things. They generally speaking just not going to do it.

[00:04:20]:
But again, great day today. All time highs in S500, all time high. NASDAQ again today, again Russell 2000 day up 2%. What was it up 3% yesterday? Small caps, you know, look, we own small caps in the portfolio. We added a position today in a leveraged etf, a tna, of course. And it’s just a great story because this group, and everybody knows this, when small caps get hot, they get hot like they go on runs last Three or four months. And you make a lot of money in this group. So you start looking at other indicators.

You just go, okay, when do I get aggressively long in this group? And I think we have those in place now because, again, it’s a rotational market. It’s a healthy bull market. The market’s broadening out, right? Rising tide, eventually. It’s all boats. What’s the one boat that has not been lifted? It’s a small cap. So we, we see it in all the data until this week, as of end of last week, small caps were trading at their most oversold levels compared to the SPF 100 in history. The widest discount is what I want to say, trading at their widest discount to the SPF 100 in all of history. So that gets your attention.

This has never happened before. They’ve never been this cheap before. Okay, I’m interested.

Tyler Herriage [00:05:34]:
Right.

Kip Herriage [00:05:34]:
It’s like the Economist, as we’ve been saying since Trump launched these tariffs. You know, I just, I covered this this morning. I found this quote from the Wall Street Journal back in June. What was the 84% Wall Street Journal, 84% of economists said that, yes, Trump’s tariffs were at a considerable level of inflation. That’s a big percentage. Would you agree? It’s not, it’s not, not, it’s not unanimous, but it’s a big majority. And over my career, whenever I get a situation like this where the majority of economists are on one side of this coin, I’m taking the other side. It really does not matter what the issue is.

[00:06:13]:
I am taking the other side because that’s how bad their group think is. By the way, I’m hearing people say, like economists and portfolio managers, this is the new line. And they’re all saying it. And I just go, what? They’re all saying, it’s clear that the economy is slowing. It’s from one to another. And I think the reason is, again, for the Fed to cut rates. That’s kind of what they think. It has to be.

But even though it’s not, but they start mouthing it, right? And once the Fed, you know, all of these junior economists, they want to be on the Fed one of these days, so they can’t rock the boat. So they all have groupthink and they speak with one voice, and it’s the stupidest thing that you’ve ever seen, because they know in an honest conversation, you go, let me ask you a question. Do you really think the economy is slowing? No, not really. But you know what? That’s what our firm is saying, you know, we work with a group of like 10 people at our firm. We have to come up with a group to say group thing. We have to come up with one. We can’t all say, give different opinions. So all, all of us have to just say, yeah, this is what we think.

That’s what we think. That’s what the firm thinks.

And this is why these firms and money managers lose to the markets every single year. Because there’s not one person. There’s not, it doesn’t have to be one. It could be two. It could be like me and Tyler. But you know, again, I’m, I am, I am the, I am the head honcho here. Tyler, Tyler catching me much faster than I thought he would. I love that.

Kip Herriage [00:07:45]:
He is, of course, but you got to have really one person that knows what they’re doing, that says, look, this is what I see happening. And we can’t, we can’t have a group think decision here. It doesn’t help anybody. So this is, this is what, this is what we’re going to say right now. Tyler’s free to say what he wants to, but he’s my son too, so I think he knows. Okay, if dad feels pretty strongly about this, I probably should go along with him because he tends to get these big calls.

[00:08:14]:
And so again, but that’s the problem with these economists and what the group think. And that’s why they get so many calls wrong. But that’s why, you know, back in, Back in. Wayne Root reminded me today that in March we put out an article about why tariffs would be so positive for the economy, why they wouldn’t, wouldn’t cause inflation. And we’ve covered this here so often. But Scott Besant this morning was on Bloomberg, just an exceptional interview. And I really like Bessant. Okay? I really, I didn’t have a problem with Steve Mnuchin, but Scott Besant is perfect for Trump because he’s a team player and he’s brilliant.

So Trump and I think they learn from each other, but can almost finish those sentences now. And this morning he was on Bloomberg and just some phenomenal quotes, right? He thinks there’s a good chance that we have a 50 basis point rate cut at the September meeting. But again, you hear these mainstream economists now and they’re, oh, yeah, the economy is clearly slowing. So they can justify maybe and let Jay Powell save some face. If the economy’s slowing, that’s Trump’s fault and that’s what we have to cut. That’s why you have to cut rates. Well, I’m telling you folks, the the economy is not slowing. They are dead wrong.

We just had 3% GDP announced last Wednesday and the economy’s slowing. I expect that in the very near future, probably after this rate cut, which frankly I’ll be surprised it was 50 basis point, I think it’ll be 25, but it doesn’t matter. The rate cutting cycle is back and that’s what the markets are discounting. They’re front running that now. But I will be surprised at 50 basis point cut. Besson also said, and this turned a lot of heads, he said that rates should be 150 to 175 basis points lower. So one and a half to 1.75% lower. That’s hugely bullish.

[00:10:08]:
And of course that does jive with Trump. What Trump’s been saying and Besson’s got his own reasons for it, the tariffs, not only are they not causing inflation, but they are causing growth in the economy and they’re public pay down debt. It’s really a magical combination that Trump has figured out here, but we just haven’t seen the inflation from these. And the reason is, and again, this is the case we made back in March. And it’s just a common sense thing. US Consumers, the companies that are importing products from overseas, the last thing that retailers want to have to do is raise the prices on the consumer. You start raising your prices, your customers are looking elsewhere to do business. So again, there’s a normal inflationary cycle where you can raise prices and everyone’s doing it.

But outside of that, you don’t want to have to raise prices and certainly blame it on Trump or blame it on the economy or blame it on tariffs.

So what’s very simply is what’s happened here. Bessant said it again this morning, said the brilliance of tariffs is that these exporting countries, they’re absorbing the tariffs, they’re lowering the prices. So if a country knows I’ve got a 15% tariff, he knows that the importer being the US company doesn’t want to pay, it doesn’t want to pay all of it, doesn’t want to raise its price on the consumers. They just dropped their prices by 15%. Now their margins instead of being 50% are 35% or 40% still making a ton of money. And they’re still in the most important and obviously the market for the global economy. As we said many times before, this is, this is the wild west of free market capitalism. The US is the last bastion of free market capitalism and everybody knows it.

[00:11:55]:
And that is why, folks, this economy is not slowing. This economy is rocking and rolling. And I’ll repeat one more time, look, our view from, I believe it was April, April or May, was that GDP growth within six to 12 months. And put just like about what, so we’ll say four to 10 months now. GDP growth would be 5% within now, within four to 10 months. I’m standing by that. By year end, I think GDP, I think it’s likely that GDP may be 5%. I’ll put it at 50, 50.

But I’m very certain longer term in the first second quarter next year that GDP growth is going to be 5%. That’s going to turn a lot of heads. And Jay Powell, if you’re still Fed chair, he’s probably going to want to say, well, you know what? We really can’t cut because economy’s too strong.

Tyler Herriage [00:12:47]:
Wrong.

Absolutely wrong. No, economic growth does not cause inflation. Inflation is, is only and always caused by money printing. Jay Powell should know this. It shouldn’t be a single person on the Federal Reserve that won’t take a note and just admit that money printing is what causes credit. Credit, credit as well. But money printing is what causes inflation. It’s not, it’s not wage gains, it’s not the growth of an economy.

None of that causes inflation. It is money printing. As you can see, Trump is, he’s still printing away.

[00:13:24]:
And that’s one of the reasons we own gold and silver and bitcoin, which by the way, as I look at the screen right now, bitcoin is a whole. What is this? Is that right? Was bitcoins at what, 300 away from an all time high? 122. 946. The all time high was 123:1. So we are literally, as I speak, 200 bucks away from an all time high in Bitcoin. Up 2.3% over the last 24 hours, up 6.6%. Just under 6% over the last week. I would, I would imagine that by this time this podcast is over, we might be at an all time high after market hours like this are more illiquid.

I know you know Bitcoin’s 24, 7, of course, but most people do tend to trade when the markets are open. So this is when you get your most illiquid moves. In other words, this is when it’s more likely that you would get a big price spike when a lot of people are shut it down. For the day. And then you might have some selling pressure that comes in again in the morning, early in the morning. But look, I was on Fox Business yesterday, you only heard me say this a thousand times. We like bitcoin. It’s a simple story.

Obviously it’s real. Okay? We, we, we accepted that long time ago. Like every investment, it has risk. Anyone that says it doesn’t is a liar. Every investment doesn’t matter what the investment is, has risk. But bitcoin is the single best supply to be in story of all time. There is no gold. Can’t match it.

[00:15:00]:
You can, you can. We’ll be finding gold in this planet forever. And we run it on this planet. We’ll find on other planets and, and, and, and meter and meteors and asteroids.

And not meteors. That, that, that’d be a nice catch. Asteroids. But we’re never going to run out of gold. We’re going to run out of bitcoin. Right. When we get to 21 million, which will take another 100 and I think it’s 110 years or so based on the having schedules when we get there, you know, it’s going to be insane how high this is. But they’re just not going to make more of it.

You know, I think a lot of people, I talk to a lot of people that don’t believe that and I’m talking about people that aren’t cryptocurrency specialists and really experts in the field or no, have a good breadth of knowledge about it. I’ll talk to a lot of people that are kind of newbies. I’ve had this conversation with family members and friends that have said, you know what, I don’t trust them. They’re going to print. They’re going to print more than they’re going to mine. They’re going to mint or mine more than 21 million Bitcoin. And no, that’s not how it works. It’s a mathematical formula.

[00:16:02]:
It stops at 21 million bitcoin. It just does. If they try to change any of that, the whole thing just doesn’t work anymore. And it would lose complete credibility. Whoever invented bitcoin, CIA, nsa, global intelligence agencies, whoever, which, whatever. One of those invented bitcoin and it was one of those. Almost certainly. It was just, just absolutely bloody brilliant.

What else today, Donald, I was just talking about this in our pre podcast meeting. He’s keeping a close track on these IPOs because you’ve probably noticed the IPO market’s coming back and we’re getting Some, there was one today, I think that was up 80 something percent. Over the last couple weeks have been a number that are up well over a hundred, even 200%. And so, you know, that’s not really our lane. It used to be for me when I was in the business because I got to know the syndicate managers extremely well as friends. But they also happen to be in charge of distributing shares in these various IPOs that our firm got either Oppenheimer or Raymond James. And so it’s good having a friend in high places to get these for our clients. Well, we don’t have that set up anymore.

We don’t get IPOs here at the VA that we can pass out to you guys. I wish we did. We don’t. But that for that reason I don’t really follow these IPOs very much. Tyler had a great point. It’s, it’s a mistake in, in most cases it’s a mistake to chase these hot IPOs when they first come out. Unless you get shares in the ipo, it is a mistake to play these afterwards. Can you make money? I’m sure.

[00:17:48]:
But you know, I think it’s the thing you gotta put a lot of time, effort, energy into. I don’t know that it’s worth it. But here’s what is worth it. When these hot deals come out and you get to know about them, you go, you know what, that’s a real company. That company could be a difference maker. And they’re doing some really cool things. Just keep that on your, you know, on your, on your, on your chart, on your, on your, your stock page. And when we get a shakeout, when this particular company comes down, you know, you can pick your levels, do it on a technical analysis basis, pick your levels of when you want to own it.

But I would not recommend chasing these in the IPMR unless you really know what you’re doing. If you do have at it and good luck to you, go get it.

But you know, what we’re going to do is we’re monitoring IPOs for a couple of reasons. Number one, it tells us where we are in this cycle. Again, we’ve said for a long time this is Most analogous to 1995-2000.com bull market. And where are we? I think we’re like 1996. But again, it’s not going to be a five year turn run. This is going to be much longer lasting. This we’re looking at, you know, we wrote the big Bribe. We said this bull market would go through at least 2030, uh, we’re working on the big bribe 2.0.

[00:19:07]:
It’ll be an addendum to it. And I can tell you right now, it’s not going to say this thing ends in 2030. We’re looking at 2035 or longer. This is that bull market. It’s longer lasting, stronger, broader. It’s not just going to be tech. It’s going to be everything. Because the innovation revolution is taking place.

It’s just a magical combination with the Trump economic miracle. We got the innovation revolution, we got the roaring2020s. All this coming together. Our five big bride megatrends all happen at the same time. And that’s why, again, I say this is the most bullish I’ve been in my career because I’ve never seen anything like this. This setup is unlike anything anyone has ever seen. And, you know, I know that there are a lot of bears out there that would probably laugh in my face at what I’m saying here. They would say, you know, we have $37 trillion in debt.

There’s. There’s four times more sellers than buyers for. Happened yesterday on the interview with, on Charles Payne Show. Charles was out, but I was interviewed by Jerry Willis was on. She’s a great girl and she’s been in Fox Business a long time. And she was doing the interview. And one of the subjects I wanted to talk about was home builders and the fact that we have a buy Recommendation on nail. 3 time bullish home builder ETF, which by the way, is just.

[00:20:25]:
Have you seen this thing? It was up 9% yesterday, up 14% today. I think our gains in this now are 42% or something. It’s in like five weeks. It’s crazy. That’s why we love leverage. ETFs gotta get out, know how to time them. You gotta know when to buy and sell. These are really not, in most cases, not meant to be married to.

Okay, but if, but anyway, we, you know, we have about 10 that we use and we track, and of course, Nell’s one of them. I think it’s gonna be a big run. We said at least 100% gains in this one and I think more. But anyway, so I was talking about home builders and I made the point. I said, this is a structural. I said, it’s a structural bull market for housing. It is structurally strong. And she interrupted me right there and said, whoa, structural? What are you, what are you talking about? Have you not heard how bad things are in housing right now? And I said, let me explain.

Yeah, Interest rates are tough. 7% mortgage is killing the housing market, I’ll give you that one. But the structural strength here comes from the fact that. How many times you ever say this? But we have new people. So maybe, maybe this will be the first time you heard it. If not, we’ve been saying this now for two years, have we not? Yes, we have. 40% of homeowners have no mortgage. They have paid off their homes.

[00:21:34]:
40%, obviously that’s an all time high. The average home equity across America is 70%. So you cannot have a housing crash or housing crisis or even a bear market. It is a impossibility to have a really hard hit housing market when those are your, that’s your underlying strength. So again, all we need is one thing. We need Scott Bessant and Donald Trump. We need their goals and dreams to come true when it comes to interest rates. Because if the 30 year mortgages fault, we think by 5% next year, okay, if they fall to 5% or less next year and that we believe very confidently they will, you’re going to see a housing market come back like crazy.

That’s why we bought nail when we bought it four or five weeks ago. Because the markets start to discount. They front run the news.

That’s a, that’s how they became known as the best discounting mechanism on the planet. Both the equity and, and, and, and, and debt markets. But now you got this set up here that is just so brilliant and it must, if I was bearish I would probably get really pissed off at people saying this. But I got to say it. Don’t bite the tape, don’t bite the bed. The great Marty’s wide came up with this. I think it was 1981 and he’s not with us anymore. But Marty’s wife first said don’t fight the tape, don’t fight the head.

What a brilliant, what a brilliant quote that was. You know I remember the first time I heard, I remember the first time I heard it, I was like okay, that’s, that, that’s good. Now does it, does it, does it work? It’s a great quote. Is it real? And it is real. So don’t fight the tape. Well, markets all time high, after all time high, after all time high. So that’s the tape. And don’t bite the Fed.

Yes. Remember the Fed has started the rate cutting cycle. That was last year. They just put it on pause. Well now they’re bringing it back to life. I think Tyler told me there’s like 100% chance of rate cut the September meeting, but that’s 25 basis points. I think he said there’s only a 6% chance of 50 basis points. So I think they’ll probably go safe and do the 25 basis.

[00:23:44]:
But remember we’ve got more economic data coming out before then. We’re going to have another jobs report and we’re going to have another CPI report. So you know, things could change. But I think regardless of what happens here, they’re going to cut rates because we just, we don’t have inflation. That’s the thing, we don’t have inflation. We still have disinflation. And again, I don’t even trust these, the current BLS numbers on cpi. And if you follow us at all, you know that’s been the case for many years.

I learned over my career it’s not trustworthy. What is more trustworthy is something like truflation.com and again as of, I didn’t check it today but as of yesterday they said that CPI was 1.76% instead of again the Fed’s 2 point. Would it come in at 2.7% yesterday? I think that’s right. So again, either way the Fed’s going to cut. But don’t fight the tape, don’t fight the Fed. That’s why the market’s going to keep going higher. I would not want, I wouldn’t be short, I would not be short this month. This market with in my enemy’s money.

That’s how certain and confident that I am that this is that bull market. And I know that I should be knocking on a wood when I say it. I’m not, I’m not, I’m not claiming to have a crystal ball. Okay? I’m not doing that. I’m being honest with you. I’m telling you, I’ve done this 40 years. This is how I feel. Because so many amazing things are coming together at the right time at the same time.

[00:25:09]:
It really is remarkable. You know, obviously something bad can happen. Terrorist attack, you know, something bad, war could break. Something bad could, can always happen. Okay? But with what we know now, this is without a doubt the most bullish I’ve been in my career. And I think we’re just going to stay locked in. We’ll get overbought, we’ll, we’ll get to a point, it’s time to dial it back a little bit. Be time to take some profits, time to pause what we’re doing and that’s fine, right? Because you know, the last thing you want to do is just keep buying, buying, buying at overbought levels.

Next thing you know we have, we have a True shakeout. The SP 500 drops 5%. Nasdaq drops 7%. Well that didn’t sound too bad. But then you know the average stock, that means the average stock lost 15 to 20%. And now we’re talking about pain. And now you’re guessing yourself, right? This is why we, we, we, we do practice market timing here so we can try to do away as much of that pain as possible from just being smart market timers by the way, if you’ve ever seen. And they’re all out there saying nobody can time the market.

No, anybody that says that is either rank amateur at this business or they’re just horrible themselves at time in the market because they’ve never really learned how to do it. But it’s like all our purchases, doesn’t matter what you buy, you try to time that purchase, don’t you?

That’s what we all do. And so again you just have to have a methodology that works. And, and again after four years of doing this, we have one that works pretty well. All right, let’s take a look under the hood today. This is again good day like yesterday does. Tyler reported great internals. Same thing today. Today newer stock Exchange advanced decline 4 to 1 positive NASDAQ 3 to 1 positive volume for NYC 75% of volume day, 73% NASDAQ.

[00:26:58]:
That’s, that’s two fact strong back to back days. If we got just a little bit higher, we’re almost 80% of volume on NYSE yesterday then, then today we’d have something a Back to back 80% updates is a bullish thrust.

So, or if you get a 90% of volume day, that’s a bullish thrust. There’s all kinds of different thrusts of course but those are kind of the main ones that we look to. So not quite there but we’re going to get there and here’s, here’s why. Look at this, look at these. Also in the internals we had, this is now starting to get impressive folks. We had 587 stocks that are 52 week high. That’s NASDAQ and NYC combined 587 to just 99 hitting a new 52 week low. So you know again it’s another indicator once this indicator of new highs to lows once it starts getting over a thousand new highs.

[00:27:51]:
That’s frothy, right? That, that’s frothy. By the way, we, we are getting Some froth here. Okay. I’m not gonna, not gonna mislead you. The VIX today volatility index just hit its lowest level of 2025. Right now it’s a 14.49. All right. Something keep an eye on.

I don’t. That doesn’t faze me. Really, I don’t, I don’t. We don’t. I don’t make. I don’t think Tyler does either. I don’t make any investment decisions based on the VIX unless it goes crazy.

If you get a Vix is up 20% today, just buy that market.

[00:28:22]:
That’s, that’s a short term buy signal. That’s an extreme right. But right now The Vix at 14.49 at a 2025 low, doesn’t matter mean anything to us. Okay. What does matter is the put call ratio. Tyler. Tyler nailed it. Yesterday put call ratio was like in the 90s.

Again, we’re all time highs, markets up huge. Yesterday put call ratio is really high. So that tells you people didn’t believe it. They’re buying puts. Well, guess what? They’re about to get shaken out of their position because that’s what the market does to you when you bet against the market. Well, what did, what did the call ratio do today? Sadly, it opened at a point 63. Right. That’s, that’s very low.

That means a lot of people are buying puts, a lot of people are buying calls and that’s typically not bullish. So we, we could have a shakeout to my fit carries over. We could have a little bit of a rest, a little bit of shakeout, you know. Yeah, I doubt these things can last more than one to two days. But this is, this is, this is, this is pretty frothy. Also, the high today, by the way, the close on the book call ratio was 0.74%. So again, not in the 50s. You know, we’ve seen that it’s not an extreme reading, but again, it is frothy.

[00:29:35]:
But what would you expect after, after what we’ve seen these last two days? Remember we came into August and what were all the professionals saying? August, seasonality is going to get you, gonna get you. I must have seen 20 people that I follow on Twitter X. I have a hard time saying X must see like 20 people that I follow that all been warning, warning, warning about August and that be careful, it’s a dangerous month. It’s not a dangerous month. It’s not a great month. But the average loss in August is 1.5% 1 point. What? That’s no damage there, right? And again, we’re, this, this is not acting like an August. It’s going to hurt people, right? We’re just not seeing it.

But again, we want those bears. We want, we want all of those people that aren’t believers in this bull market. I, there are still people that I follow and actually trust, okay, I trust some of their work, but they’re still saying this is a bear market. Can you believe this? There are still people and one guy in particular that’s been in the business about as long as I have, Tom McClellan. Okay. I, I usually don’t name names. I like Tom.

But he still says we’re in a bear market rally and he’s bearish on the market right now. And I, and I know that because he hit me up on it yesterday. And like Tom, I don’t know what you’re looking at, man. He goes, well, he’s got all his, you know, all of his own indicators. That looks at, they’re pretty, Obsolete’s the wrong word. But they’re, they’re, they’re, they’re kind of not, they’re not mainstream, you know. And Todd and I look at it and go, man, that’s just, that’s, that’s just, it’s a very eclectic kind of out there reading. How do you make sense out of that, you know? But, but it’s interesting.

[00:31:21]:
It just not enough people follow it for it to work. I mean, that’s the bottom line. These work because people follow them and they act on it together.

Also under hood today in our sector watch today. Sector watch today also very good. 8 sectors higher. 3 finished lower. LED to the upside of materials, health care, consumer discretionary, all up better than quarter percent. One and a quarter percent. Energy bounced back today at 1.2% by the way. To the downside, very little communication services.

[00:31:49]:
Today was down 5, 10 of a percent. You may have seen this. Nvidia was. Sorry, Amazon apologies. Amazon actually turned finished up 1.2% today. I’m not sure what was down here. Nvidia of course, was down today, but only by 1%. Tesla also gave back a little bit, say down a half a percent, but no real damage anywhere done today in the market and the things that we care about.

And commodity watch today, gold today up $9 announced at 3407. Silver. That’s silver up 1 1/2% today at 3855. Again, I see a lot of technicians, I mean, true technicians.

[00:32:33]:
I’m a, I’m, I’m a, I’m a practicing technician, but I’m not a professional technician. And I see a lot of these folks that I trust that work. They say silver is going to have one of those moves, and I think they’re right. We’re looking for a way to play it outside of options. I mean, they’re, they’re obviously leveraged ETFs, but they’re pretty illiquid. And I’ve just never really done that with Silver, frankly, or at least not in a long time. Agq, I think, is one, but I think silver is ready to go. Of course, our primary play there is going to be gold that were gold bugs here that happened to also we’re 80, 20 gold and silver.

So I’m rooting for it though. We do have a position, Silver and we do recommend it again, Last trade now, $38.55 an ounce. Copper today down a half percent. $4.49 a pound. Crude oil down today, 44 cents a barrel. Last trade, 6,273 again, stuck in this range. That’s what Trump wants, how to get inflation down. Keep oil down.

[00:33:28]:
That’s what he wants. He knows it’s going to bounce back. We just got to get out of this inflationary concerns and then Trump’s going to go, you know what, let oil go as high as it wants to. Now he won’t want over 100, 120, that’s bad for the economy. But right now it’s about getting inflation down. Crude oil goes in, everything. Okay, he knows this. You’ve heard him say it a million times.

They’re right now keeping it down, but it’s not going to stay down. I think it was a good time to be accumulating energy positions because the global economy is rocking and rolling. We had, I just reported this yesterday, what was it, nine or ten globe major global indexes just hit an all time high in the last 30 days. That’s just a sign that the economy’s doing well globally and that’s bullish for oil. Last on the day, Bitcoin again, 122,832. That puts it right at $300 below an all time high. And let’s hope it gets there overnight. Maybe we open tomorrow, maybe we come in tomorrow morning.

It’s like 130,000. Wouldn’t that be great? And because that’s where it’s headed. Our cycle high. Excuse me? Our we think it’s going to 200,000 this year. I really expected this move particular here to have already hit 100. I’m surprised it hasn’t hit 140,000 right now. But I also be surprised it doesn’t happen soon. And then 200,000 by year and our cycle high is 350,000.

[00:34:46]:
All right, folks, that’s it for today. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see back here again tomorrow after the close.