In today’s episode, Kip returns to the mic to talk about the latest market action, the importance of taking breaks, and the value of having a strong and growing team. Kip shares insights from his recent appearance on Charles Payne’s show and dives into why October is always a tricky month for investors especially with heightened volatility and earnings season just around the corner. Kip discusses shakeouts in the current bull market, lessons learned from the dot-com era, and strategies for riding out market turbulence. He emphasizes smart portfolio management like holding winners, being cautious with margin, and embracing diversification across sectors like tech, energy, precious metals, and Bitcoin. Plus, Kip covers the ongoing story behind gold’s price surge, the impact of decades long manipulation, and why he believes the precious metal still has tremendous upside from here.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Thursday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. I want to thank Tyler for holding down the fort of the podcast. The last three days, I have been fighting some pretty terrible allergies. My voice has been pretty much gone. I’ve had a cough and as bad as I sound today, can imagine the last couple days, again, thank you, Tyler, stepping in for me.

And we will not have a podcast tomorrow. We’re going to be on the road. Kind of a long weekend trip for us here. A little family reunion on my wife’s side going down to Port Aransas. It’s kind of an annual trip we do, and it’s a lot of fun to get down on the beach and see all the family. My wife’s family is a big family. I married into a large family that loves to get together and see each other. And they’re just.

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I couldn’t be a more blessed man. So look at my life, right? Got my own company, building it the way we want to build it, right? I mean, anyone entrepreneur knows how special that is, right? And now Sam has joined Tyler and me and Danielle and Josh as part of the team. And we’re going to keep growing, by the way. We’ve got a lot of big ideas here. I think, I think you’re going to like them. I really think we’re building in the way that we think you’d want us to. How can we help us all make more money with more opportunities, even better ideas, better research, really, just more time on our hands, frankly. We just, we’ve been shorthanded and short staffed.

Probably why my voice is the way that it is. Look, I like many of you, you got your own business. No, it’s not work. You love what you do. But every now and then the body wants to. Needs a little break, right? Anyway, so no podcast tomorrow. We’ll be back with you, of course, on Monday morning, on Monday afternoon. And we’ll be back.

We will have a letter tomorrow morning if maybe a bit abbreviated and of course, Monday as well. So today I was on Charles Payne show. We’ll talk about that for a second. Love the guy. Love him dearly. Today the market shook out a little bit. We’ve been kind of telling you this week that, look, it’s October. October’s always, especially the first couple, three weeks, always a little wild.

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You definitely get amped up. Volatility, nothing to stress about at all. But we’re overbought and frankly, this has been my view. I, I want to see not, I don’t want to see a big shakeout. I don’t want to get anybody scared. I don’t want to see 5, 7, 10 drawdown. I want to see a shakeout, though that at least gets the Bears, you know, amped up. You know, I want to see a shakeout that removes some of the bullish.

There’s a bit of froth in the market. I think we can safely say that’s the case certainly in AI And I want to see some of that removed and I want to see it happen now because beginning next week, I think it’s Wednesday, Yes, Wednesday, that J.P. morgan and the other criminal, I’m sorry, the other major money center banks report start reporting earnings. More on that criminality in a moment. Then, then of course, you know, within what a week to seven day, ten days after that, then we started getting, you know, the real juicy tech tech earnings coming out. So I’d rather see that happen. Now. I know there’s some fear in the market and then we can really, and this, I’m speaking to all of our parabolic options program members here especially then we can really because we, we’ve sold all our positions.

You know, we’re, we’re in cash now after having three pretty decent trades. And now we want to be able to get back into the market when we can see the market, the white of its eyes, you know, and we need lower prices for that to happen. Shakeout. I mean, listen, this is kind of crazy here already. Tyler just told me about this. So the Fear of Greed index finally hit greed. Okay, well all it took was what we happened on Tuesday and then today for the Fear of Greed X now is back down to 49. Okay.

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I mean yesterday NASDAQ opened at all time highs and now the Fear Greed index. After today’s slight, you know, pause, NASDAQ only finished down 18 by the way, which is kind of crazy. But Fear Greed X are already in a 40, 49. We did learn overnight that the AAI investor sentiment survey hit its highest reading of bulls in quite some time, meaning in months, not years. But again, that that’s a bit of a pattern change. So, you know, you’re definitely seeing animal spiritual back. That’s a very good thing. Getting some froth in the market.

That’s normal and that’s just what happens. And as I wrote this morning, you know, this is, this is going to be, I think in some ways meet from a trading pattern point of view. This will be this generational bull market. This, you know, this, this innovation revolution bull market is going to resemble dot com. And here’s what I mean by that. Because it’s not going to be five years. It’s not only going to be NASDAQ 575%. It’s going to be much greater, much longer lasting.

Okay. We’re talking about, I really, I could see this going for a couple decades. I really, I really could see that happening. Bull markets don’t last that long. So I know that wish won’t come true. But I think in the grand scheme of things we’re going to see a much longer a bull market cycle if you will, probably punctuated by short term, you know, shake out some that could be violent. But in the big, in the big picture this will, in a long term chart will eventually look like one long bull, big bull market. And so I think, you know, but we do have some lessons to learn from 95 to 2000 that are important and that is that, you know, trees don’t grow to the sky overnight.

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You don’t get a bull market that just keeps going parabolic. That’s not healthy, it’s not normal. It really can’t happen. However, if that’s going to happen, it’s going to happen in this bull market. We will have cycles, we will have moves like that. You go, what? This doesn’t look healthy, it doesn’t look normal. Are they rigging this thing? What happened to the sellers? I mean we’re getting glimpses of that now and I think we’ll get even more of them. Okay, but the point being we’re going to have shakeouts too.

And the problem with those big melt up moves higher means the shakeout could be a little more violent. And so I like to see a little smoother, if you know what I mean. But look daring.com and I’ve written about this over the years many, many times because I mean again I lived through it. These, we had five shakeouts, drawdowns of 10 to 20% including one bear market in NASDAQ. Excuse me, of 30, let me put a cough drop in of 32%. Right. A full on three month bear market in NASDAQ 18 months before the final, before the, for the, the dot com top. And that was the, the big, that was a big 200% move higher in NASDAQ that took place in 18 months.

That was almost straight up parabolic. Okay. And I do think we’re going to get a lot of glimpses of that going Forward. But I think the key to this is again, the lessons I learned from 95 to 2000. And this is going to be, I don’t want to discourage investors that love doing your own research and finding growth stock because you’re so good at it. You guys and girls, you find things that I’ve never find and you give me reports, man, I just made, you know, 200% in three months in this thing. I mean, I love those stories. Keep up that great research.

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I did the same thing in 95 to 2000. My problem, I’m not, I’m not putting this on you saying it’s going to be your problem. But my problem came again because I was busy. I was managing book of business, I was helping take companies public. Kind of lost track of some of my investments. My problem came because I, I didn’t have a market timing system then, didn’t have the VRA system then, didn’t know exactly how to time tops. It was all still coming into focus then. Now it’s, you know, it’s, we got a pretty good ballpark idea of when these big turns are going to take place, what to look for at least, right? And so my problem was I built a large portfolio, had a lot of tech, a lot of dot com names in it.

So when those shakeouts happened, the second and third tier ones, which could be your top performers, right, because they’re hot IPOs, they’re brand new names, everybody wanted to own them and they go poop, you know, straight up. The problem is when the air comes out of that balloon, they crash and burn quick. So there are a couple of those drawdown cycles where I really hurt my portfolio. And I, I would, I would caution against trying to chase the hottest fad and go from this to this to this to this. Oh, this group’s hot, you know, do what it’s your money. Please do what you want to with it. I encourage you to, of course, as part of the fun, really, of learning this, this investing game. But what, what I, what we’re going to focus on here is our, is our VRA portfolio.

And we want to buy winners and hold winners. I think unless you are really watching the markets closely, I would say for, I don’t know, probably a big percent, 80% of investors. What I’m explaining here is something that is more comfortable for most investors. All right, the other 20%, you’re gunslingers, right? Hey, keep gunslinging. Go Crush it. Turn 100,000 into a million and do it in a year. You can do that. But again, you know those shakeouts, those are the stocks that you’re buying, the highest flyers, right, the big Momo stocks.

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Those are also the ones that you get hurt when we have a sharp drawdown. And we are going to have those. We just are, they’re healthy again, they’re normal. Okay, the other lesson, and again, I’ll tell you, it’s a personal experience of mine. I’ve made every mistake at least once and usually five or six times. Frankly, I’m hard headed. I learned from my own mistakes, is use some margin accounts. All right? I’ve used margin accounts throughout my career regularly.

Okay? There are times to do it where it makes sense and there are times to do it where it makes very little sense. Right. Debt used intelligently is a major asset for smart money investors. It just is. I don’t talk about this often because I don’t want to encourage it. And I would tell the average investor, please don’t use margin unless you really know what you’re doing and, and you can imagine you can manage your own emotions and the way that you view money, by the way. All right, I always wanted to tell a story. I said before, and I admit it every time I’ve said it, that if I was looking for a money manager, I would find a woman.

Women are better with money. They may not be as aggressive, but in a money manager I wouldn’t want that. I’d want someone that would actually manage my money as if I was in a coma and wanted, I wanted to grow, but I wanted to protect it when I came out of that coma in 10 years. Right, whatever. Right. And I think that women are probably more averse to the use of debt and margin accounts, but if they were to use it, they’d use it super intelligently. And I think if you’re going to use margin, you know, just, just imagine you’re a woman and you’re going to be conservative with it and really mind your P’s and Q’s and only take it on like it’s significant. What you see is a market bottom.

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And again, we’re going to get those opportunities, we can get those drawdowns. But the key to this, with using any kind of leverage, whether it’s in the stock market or anywhere, is managing that leverage and not letting it get too out of hand. Because it’s just time and time again and we see this happen throughout the country. This is all proven by statistics going back many decades. Margin debt seems to really get, you know, hit high levels at significant market tops. And it might be a short term market top. It still is a market top for maybe a month or two or three or whatever. And then those, those drawdowns, when you have margin, they hit you hard, you start getting margin calls and that’s, those are not fun days.

So managing leverage and I think staying with your winners, right, that’s what we’re going to focus on here and maybe we’ll have a chance to talk about that more going forward. But and again, we have built into, as you know, for the VR portfolio, we have built in diversification here. And that’s really just a happenstance of the VRA investing system, you know, telling us okay, here’s what, here are the best looking sectors. And then we do our own research and of course find the ETFs and best individual stocks to own. But that’s why we’re diversified. And if you’re properly diversified, you could be a hundred percent in stocks and have a market drawdown and still be pretty protected. So we are, you know, we’re right now in semis and tech. I’m so sorry.

Just a very dry mouth and a cough that won’t go away. We’re very heavy and I’m just popping vitamin C like crazy by the way, which has always worked for me and I’m sure it will hear again. We’re very diversified. We’re in semi tech growth, small caps, precious metals, miners, energy, housing and of course Bitcoin. And these diversification will continue to serve us very well in both good times and during the drawdowns. So we’re locked in, you know, our views. It’s long term bull market. I said on Charles show today again, he’s just the best guy today.

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He had me on and first thing he said was hey, three years ago you started talking about the Big Bribe and to remind us what is that? And I think he’d forgotten that the first time I was on his show as Tyler and I had just written and published the Big Bribe, he saw that online because we followed you on Twitter for a long time and it was the first time he’d asked me on. And so he said, hey, come on, talk about the book. So I did. I think he’d forgotten that. But anyway, because if he had, he put the COVID of the book up. I believe that’s kind of what I’m saying here. But this guy’s real busy, can’t remember everything. And I didn’t even know he was going to bring that up today.

But he gave me an opportunity to really go back and talk about what is the big bride. And I don’t know I’ve ever even told this story before. But you know, Tyler and I were approached writing a book and it just came up on one of our calls to the publishers said if you were going to talk about something, what would it be? And I said it just popped in my head like somebody put it there. You know, it would be the big bribe. The full story of what’s happened to our money post 1913 and then post 1971, Federal Reserve 1913, Richard Nixon 1971 taking dollar off the gold standard and then how that’s all destroyed the American household. But now we come full circle. The government has essentially over the years been bribing us with central bank easy money policy, thinking that we’re wealthy as our assets begin to rise. But really we’re losing in so many other areas.

Right. We’re not raising our families. It takes two incomes. Both spouses have to work now. You know, kids are being raised. I mean this is, this is how the family unit, partially speaking, has been destroyed. And so, and of course we also know that in so many families today there’s no father. And look, that’s, that’s another story for another time.

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But anyway, we’ve now come, as I said on Charles show today in the book, I think we’ve now come full circle. We have an opportunity here because the stars are aligned here, that this inflationary cycle because of the amount of wealth that’s on the sidelines and the very little amount of debt, not, not government debt, personal debt, corporate debt. We have so much cash, very little debt, corporate earnings are soaring. You know, we, there’s an opportunity here for the market to really melt up. And there’s so much cash on the sideline again, ocean liquidity and, and so it’s all this combination. Plus now the innovation revolution, the Trump economic miracle and again the social liquidity. And it all adds up to a melt up scenario. And that’s what we believe is in place for many, many years going forward.

Again we had the roaring 20, 2019 20s, now we get the roaring 2000s. And again these things do happen that way in a very strange way. They do happen that way. So yeah, that’s basically what we were able to talk about on the show today. And then we turned to gold and I was able to tell one of my, you know, one of my funnest stories to tell because as you know, over the years we recommended saving in gold over fiat currency, meaning money markets and CDs and stuff. Obviously you’re not going to put it all on gold. I keep very little money in my savings account, checking account. We’re either in stocks or, you know, a cash holding account with our investment accounts or we’re in gold and silver and Bitcoin.

And $100,000 invested in gold in 2003 is worth over a million dollars today. That Same hundred thousand, 203 invested in just a money market account after inflation is worth less than $70,000. We have been called irresponsible by so many money managers and financial planners over the year. Like what they telling you to do, what you know. And now I just kind of want to go, yeah, who’s irresponsible now, cowboy? Right. Because this clearly has been a winning investment strategy. And so Charles asked the question about, okay, but now everybody’s piling into gold. We’re seeing it melt up.

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And of course it was down big today as we, as we wrote this morning in a very letter. Did we not we told you it’s extreme Robot on steroids is when bad things happen. Blah, blah, blah. Gold is the most overbought that I’ve ever seen it. And by some measures, it’s the most overbought it’s ever been. So this is no surprise. I think we all knew this was going to happen. You hit a big number, hit 4,000.

You have a shakeout Silver all time high today. By the way, spot silver broke 50 today. An all time high today. Got to give a good golf clap to silver today. Been really, really struggling to do it and now it’s finally done it. It won’t stop here. But again, you know, short term reversals are common at these big numbers. Right? Just very common to see because the, the buyers is by the rumor, everybody buys it.

You hit the number, they sell it in the shorts. It’s the shorts that really do the job. You know, they pound it lower knowing that there’s no buyers there now, right. They’ve all spin up all their purchasing power, getting it to a new level. Right? And so that’s what’s happened here. But as I told Charles, I said, listen, short term, sure, overbought, but here’s why it doesn’t matter because we’re now seeing honest price discovery for the first time. I think in my career in gold. Gold has been manipulated.

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Silver too, been manipulated lower for decades. We know this because of the amazing work of gata, which I was able to talk about for the first time on Charles show today. I Know these guys, Bill Murphy and Chris Powell, legends, okay. In the gold mining and the gold industry, I should say. In, in 99, Bill and Chris founded GATA, the gold antitrust Action Committee. Okay. Had a chance to meet them for the first time at a, at a matter of fact, the first gold conference I went to in New Orleans. I think this was like 89, 90 maybe, maybe a little later, but in that ballpark and I think it was a little late.

I say like 93 probably, frankly. And you know, they were already big names in, in the, in the circle of gold. And then 99 founded Gadda. And so what they did was they started really investigating raising money and really investigating this criminality that was forcing gold and silver prices lower. They got, after years and years and years of trying a lot of money, been a lot of patience. These guys are rock stars. They got these keys into court. And I won’t bore you with all the details because there are multiple trials.

But the big one that I talked about on Charles show today was in 2000 after a long trial. And JP Morgan, by the way, it’s not just JP Morgan, it was HSBC, it was Barclays Central banks involved as well. A lot of discovery that they didn’t want to give up. Some was forced into this federal trial. At the end of the trial, J.P. morgan, with J.B. dimon as CEO, was forced to spend $920 million, largest federal settlement ever of any kind of financial. A settlement like this, certainly in the precious metals world or any, I think financial asset included in these lawsuits for admitting to manipulating gold and silver lower all those years.

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And it’s interesting, is it not, that gold bottomed that year at fourteen hundred dollars an ounce, the same year that J.P. morgan and Jamie Dimon were found guilty. Since then, gold has jumped from $1400 an ounce to today’s last trade, 39.91. Hit a high today of 4077. Before Virgin lowers down 80 bucks an ounce today as I speak. But again, streamer bought. No surprise here, right? So, but I think now we have honest price discovery. And this is something different because if we had had this all these years when they couldn’t, when they wouldn’t, wouldn’t.

Manipulation is still going on, don’t get me wrong, it’s obvious. But now, you know, there’s so much buying that that manipulation is not working anymore. And I think that now there are more eyeballs on the criminality they were using to manipulate and spoof these trades, to use derivatives, gold, leasing, all these paper money Tricks they have. Well, eventually, you know, if you’re an evildoer, you know, you get caught up to and that’s what’s happened here. The smart money figured out what they’re doing and called them on it. And that lawsuit was a big part of it. So gata again, Bill Murphy, Chris Powell, guys, you started us many years ago. Thank you for your hard work.

Thank you for your love you put into this because I think you’ve made this honest price discovery that’s happening now possible. Matter of fact, I’m certain of it. So with that said, gold should have been 4,000. Word is day 4,000 announced 10 years ago at least. By now, goals should be $10,000 an ounce. So the fact that we’ve raised our price target to $15,000 an ounce, frankly, I got to tell you the truth, I do think it’s too low. Again, you never know what’s going to happen. Maybe they’ll find another way to rig it.

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Maybe they’ll be able to mine an asteroid and bring down trillions of dollars worth of gold. You know, you can’t tell the future because Elon Musk, I mean that does seem like something he might try to do. But all else being equal, I think the gold is gonna will just keep going. And again, if Trump again, he did call this the golden age, didn’t he? Of America. But if Trump does launch this long rumored. Now I’ve heard this about this in circles for over a year now. There’s gonna be a massive T bond offering backed in part by gold, silver, bitcoin, maybe others as well, a basket of them to support a massive, a number of very large treasury bond offerings. We could have T bond offerings instead at 4%.

We could do them at 2% because now they’re backed by hard assets and the United States, the word of the United States. So you don’t pay 4% in that, you might pay 2 or maybe 1%. That’s where people put their most conservative money, right? So it’s something to keep in mind. But again, we think the gold moving gold really has a very long way to go short term, overbought for sure, as are the miners. Let’s cover that real quick before I forget, they got hit today. GDX, the gold miner ETF today, as you probably already know, is down 4 and a half percent today. GDXJ down 5% today. That’s about what I would expect to see happen.

A day like this can go down 80 or down 2% silver today. Now she down down 2.8%. That’s, that’s, that’s December silver down 2.8% at 4760. But again, the key for us is, you know, this doesn’t surprise us. And now this sets us up for a really good looking next opportunity to purchase. And yeah, I’m talking about parabolic options. Yes. I’m also talking about our VRA10 baggers.

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Again. We use, you know, Vista and Snowline, we use, I didn’t get a chance to talk with those either. But we use dollar cost averaging every month for those. And this is just a perfect setup to be able to start putting some fresh money back into these as the prices have come down. And so again, if you’re a long term investor, you look at this and you go, actually, you know what, that’s, that’s good news. That’s good news. Now we get to buy more cheaper. And so I think we’ll, we’ll take that same approach with the stock market as well and other positions.

All right, listen, I’m going to let you go on your way again. No podcast tomorrow and then we’ll be back here again with you of course, Monday. You’ve probably seen the close by now. Again, the biggest loser today was right at well Russ 2000 down 6. 10 of a percent. Nasdaq, I’m sorry, tied with that was really Dow Jones down 5:10. SP 500 only down 2:10. Nasdaq came all the way back down after being down.

I think I saw NASDAQ down 180 or something. Closed down only 18 points. I mean these dips, as Tyler’s been saying on the podcast, you know, they’re just getting shorter and shorter and it’s just that’s the way big bull markets work, I guess. But anyway, well, I think this October volatility could continue for a bit. And again, I have no problem with that. Get some of the weekends out. Let’s get a good set up for Q3 earnings and really be able to rock and roll into here in the best quarter of the year. Of course, same thing happened with bitcoin today.

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Where’s bitcoin? Last trade here. Yeah, they do all kind of move together, don’t they? 120,990, down one and a half percent on the day. Crude oil today down a buck a barrel at 61, 46. Internals. Let’s cover. I’m kind of jumping around a little bit today. Internals today were. Here we go.

3 to 1 negative advance decline for NYSE, NASDAQ right at 2 to 1 negative. Again, this is not a big surprise. Today down volume on NASDAQ was 60%. Down volume NYC was down 63%. But folks, we had 425 stocks hit a new 52 week high to only 137 hit a new 52 week low. Obviously if these declines carry next week that’ll change a bit. But again that’s a very strong reading. I would say this is an above average day for a decline like this for sure.

Sector watch today. You know what, I’m gonna, I’m gonna instead of trying to load that screen, I’ve got too many screens open right now. I’m gonna go and let you go for the weekend. I think we covered most of our bases anyway. Again, always appreciate you being with us. Really appreciate your emails and appreciate your trust and faith. You put us here at the vra. We never take that for granted.

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Have a great long weekend. We’ll see you back here Monday, folks. All right, this call is a wrap. Bye bye.