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VRA Investing Podcast: Navigating Federal Reserve Decisions. Why Bitcoin and Gold Shine Amid Slowdown – Kip Herriage – June 03, 2024

In today's episode, Kip analyzes the interesting stock market action to kick off an eventful week. We'll review the Federal Reserve's policy missteps, and explore potential rate cuts before September. Lastly, Kip covers what the f ...

Posted On June 03, 2024Episode 1396
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About This Episode

In today's episode, Kip analyzes the interesting stock market action to kick off an eventful week. We'll review the Federal Reserve's policy missteps, and explore potential rate cuts before September. Lastly, Kip covers what the future will look like for gold and bitcoin. Tune into today's podcast to see what the VRA Investing System is telling us based on today's market action.

Transcript

Don’t look back to. The market is closed. Good Monday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a great day today. Hope everyone is fantastic as well. I am still fighting this head cold. It kind of got into my lungs and sinuses.

So again, forgive me for any disruption there. If I got to pause and blow my nose. Hope you understand and also want to say thank you again. We absolutely have the best members and folks that aren’t even members that just give us your feedback on a regular basis. We love it. Keep it coming. We’ve got a very smart money audience here, and I think it’s a different kind of audience because it’s not just a bunch of, you know, like technical wonks, you know, or folks that look at the market with a analysis paralysis mindset. I’ve seen more really smart people that get these markets entirely wrong.

[00:00:53]:
Matter of fact, that’s frankly most really smart people, they overthink it. Right? And this is investing is just as much art as it is science. I think many times it’s more art. And I know what my point here being we’ve got a lot of gray hairs like myself here that have been around the block, but we love the action of the markets. Right. At the heart of it, look, investing is gambling. Let’s just be honest about it. At the heart of it, it is because we’re taking a bigger risk than we normally take with a bank type of investment.

Yeah, it is gambling. But when you’re disciplined and when you have a system and an approach and methodology, technology, and then you have an opportunity to do some good, and that’s what we’re doing here. And I got to tell you, we’re working on a couple of new ideas here for our VRA members. I think you’re going to like this. I’m going to introduce, if I can write it correctly in the morning, I’m going to introduce it to you tomorrow morning, worst case, Wednesday. But it’s affiliated with bitcoin. It’s something we do about once or twice a year here where we take an options play and we introduce it. Instead of just our parabolic options program, we do one, maybe two.

Usually it’s just one options play year. And these are our most high probability longer term options plays. And we think we found something very interesting here that, again, these are the things that allow us to beat the markets not by a little bit, but a lot. Because if you can minimize your losses and if your portfolio of ETF’s of course, we love leveraged ETF’s here. If you have the market timing system, which we do, and so you can, you know, beat the markets you do with leverage egfs. That’s the added return right there. Then you add in your growth stocks. Of course, we have our ten baggers here.

[00:02:41]:
But then if you can find one or two or three unique plays a year, and we’ve been fortunate to do that over the years, something that really has the potential to give you five to ten, five to ten time return inside of a year to 18 months. That’s what I’m introduced to you tomorrow. Then all of a sudden now you’re going, you know what? Okay, I’m having fun, right? This is the gambling side of my, of my mental makeup. And so I’m engaged. I’m loving what I’m doing here, and it’s fun. And guess what? We’re also beating the market and funding our retirement accounts. That’s what we’re doing here. And so Tyler and I love it.

I can tell you with every. This is, this consumes me. Unfortunately for Tyler, it’s more and more consuming him. But, you know, look, that’s not a complaint. Again, we love what you do. You never. You’re never working. Okay, let’s get to it.

I want to talk about several important things, say some of the topics. All right, we’re, again bitcoin. Got some important things to tell you here. I’m going to spend a minute on Tesla. The roman empire meets the roaring 2020. So this is, Tom and I just had our pre podcast, a meeting. This is where we are. We are.

[00:03:52]:
You’ve seen and heard about the. All the comps, right? To the roman empire. You’ve heard us talk about it, written about it. Yeah, that’s. We are, we are. We are an empire. That is probably because no one knows for sure. Probably on the backside, right? Because of, you know, you just see the parallels, right? You see the parallels to culture degrading, you know, us losing our way, the, obviously, the buildup of debt, the expansionary militaristic, expansionary imperialism taking place.

All the parallels are there. And so then the question becomes, okay, where are we? Because, of course, it took the only fire 100 years to collapse. I think maybe halfway through, maybe 60% through. In other words, we’ve got a long ways to go. And what’s interesting about that, I think, is, again, we’re in the roaring 2020s. So if we’re in the gravy, okay, we’re still expansionary, we are still imperialist. And we’re winning. But we are winning.

I mean, we are winning. We are the rules of the world, okay? That could end at any time, of course. And a lot of dangerous signs there with Russia was that, of course, that worries all of us to death. But the point being, from the stock market point of view, we’re in the roaring 2020s. We called this a couple years ago. This is happening, folks. Look around you. Look around you.

[00:05:17]:
Look at these. Look at everything that is growing by leaps and bounds. So much of this not being, most of it not being reported in the media because all we hear is negatives there. But you know, these sports leagues, right? These sports leagues are booming all over the world. Bread and circuses, right? This is happening. And again, Tyler is all over this stuff because that’s his generation is UFC, which it was wwe when they were kids, and now it’s UFC. And now, of course, it’s football, it’s basketball, it’s baseball. They’re all growing by leaps and bounds.

Soccer, of course, exploding globally. We talked about this in these podcasts over time, and this is not a minor point, right, entertainment, the bread and circuses. It’s not just that it’s distraction from our reality. It’s that these companies are making big money. That’s how they’re able to pay these hundred million, 200,000,300, 400, $500 million contracts. Right? And they’re only growing. And there’s some really interesting opportunities in this space, one that Tyler’s found that we’re starting to dig into here. We have some very interesting connections to that, by the way.

We’ll save that for later. But the other point is that, and I got involved in kind of a twitter thread this weekend about the bomber Republic, because I’ve written about it, I’ve studied a lot, wrote about it in two previous books, crash through prosperity books. And that’s the concern is, okay, where are we? Are we nearing hyperinflation? If you listen to the bears, that’s what they’re going to tell you is this is only going to end terribly. Are debt’s going to kill us all. But I’ve been hearing that message since I got into business. My first day in the business in 1985, I remember Jack Warden, Ted Parsons, my mentor, Sarah Burrows. That’s three days right there. These are all senior brokers that when I got into business at 23, they were already in their late sixties to mid seventies.

[00:07:17]:
Okay? And this is a group I love to hang out, drink with, to learn from. And it was a blast and again, they were truly mentors, but they were also. They were also very conservative and bearish, you know, and they believed that the debt levels we have are going to crash us all. And they would commonly say this, okay, we’re very close. We’re very close to everything ending. You know, that was. Again, that was. Oh, my God, it was too long ago.

I don’t want to even say the number. Okay, it was 39 years ago. Right? So it hasn’t happened. And no one alive today can tell you if it’s going to happen or when it’s going to happen. But the message is the same today as it was then. That message has been wrong. It’s been miserably wrong. Right.

So. But again, it’s something to be aware of, but it’s not something, certainly not in this environment, because, again, this is a. This is an innovation revolution. We started here. The combinations that are coming together here from all of these different angles, and this expansionary global environment we’re in, of growth. Again, I gotta remind you, Kathie Wood’s team, they may not be great stock pickers, but, man, their macro research is fantastic. And one thing that I believe they’re exactly right about, besides Tesla, which they’re right about Tesla as well. But one of the things they’re right about is about is about where this fourth industrial revolution, as they call it, is going to take us.

[00:08:41]:
Again, we wrote about this in the big bribe. We’ve talked about it here on these podcasts a lot. But again, we are in the very, like, first inning. This is. This is the birth of AI. This is 1995, for the 1995 to 2000 melt up. So this is why we’re all staying locked in. But all of these unbelievable, like, once in a generation events are all happening and coming together.

And in the meantime, we’ve got a political circus that distracts us, that we have to be worried about. Or do we, you know, if we. If we’re really being run by a group of planners, if you will, then, then maybe that’s not such a big concern, and maybe that’s all just a distraction. Frankly, I think that’s what it is. History shown us time and again, actually, the market does much better under Democrat presidents than republican presidents. It’s hard for a lot of people to accept and believe it’s true. So we’ll leave that aside for now. We’re going to focus on the positives here today, and there are a lot of positives.

So, again, that’s just something that’s a macro case for us. I want to put that out there because in the short term we got the medium to long term macro bullish, which is crazy bullish. Again, Kathy woods team, they believe, and this is, I mean they’ve done a lot of work on this. I’m not quite as optimistic as they are, but they believe GDP growth in the United States is going to jump to 8% plus for 15 to 20 to possibly 30 years. The AI and all the innovation and disruption taking place is going to create a once in a mini lifetime investment environment. GDP growth is going to soar, corporate earnings are going to explode. Higher wealth is going to, we see it accelerating, don’t we? Right. It’s happening right before I is, isn’t it? So that’s, again, that’s why we’re locked in.

[00:10:46]:
But that’s the macro medium to long term. In the short term we have to also be concerned about market timing. And that’s why we rely on the Vera investing system. As a reminder, we have eleven out of twelve screens that are bullish. Never been that bullish before. We got a little concerned last week is the transports, the trannies, as we like to call them, broke down and did not manufacture. Hit a double bottom. Well that got resolved on Friday with that melt that we had in the last and the smart money hour right now.

Transports were down a percent today. So they’re not out of the woods yet. But you have to think again in this economic environment. They’re going to be fine. We’re not going to have, we’re not going to have a recession. However, this is the, however, we did get some economic data today and remember we went, what a crazy time we’ve had. Right. We’ve gone from, okay, beginning of the year, the economist believes can be good.

Drink water. We’re gonna have six to seven rate cuts, remember that, to just last month. No rate cuts. We’re gonna have rate hikes. Right. And then, you know, all it takes is one or two economic reports that don’t go our way and the bond yields collapse. This is what we forecast by the way, as you know, we said continue to say we’re going to have two to three rate cuts this year. That’s what we expect.

[00:12:09]:
And you know, let the market craziness work itself out. The concern short term is this. The federal Reserve has been too restrictive for too long. This has been our view for some time. We believe that they shouldn’t have hiked rates the last time they did. And we believe they should have started cutting rates probably in the first quarter of this year. Right. So now here we are.

Today we got economic data. Remember on Friday we got the, the PCE inflationary data, which showed, that came in, in line and showed, okay, no, inflation is not accelerating. It’s actually moving down as expected. Remember, without shelter, and in the last report, insurance, you know, cost, have skyrocketed, but without shelter, housing and shelter and insurance, almost every other component of these inflationary data, CPI, etcetera, is below 2%. It’s below 2%. So if it were not for all the crazy money printing and not for the pandemic and all the shortages, that kind of thing we had, because of it, we would not have inflation. We’re going back to disinflation. And again, the disruption that’s taking place from the innovation revolution is going to cause disinflation, maybe even deflation.

That’s been our point, is that the Fed has been restricted for too long, and they’re going to eventually pay the price for it. Because why? Why in God’s name does the Fed funds rate right now, which is five and a quarter, five and a half percent, why does it need to be there when inflation is essentially back to 2%? It is two and a half, whatever. But the ten year yield is telling you at 4.4%, which is where it closed today, again, we’re a full percent below in the ten year where the Fed funds rate is. That’s restrictive. And I could get a little wonky about it. I’m not going to do that. I’m trying to hit the high notes here. But bottom line is that the Fed, like they like, like they always do, especially under j pal.

[00:14:17]:
This guy has made. I think he’s, I think he’s already made, frankly, I think he’s already made. We wrote this up this morning. Our call is that this week, we wrote this this morning. This week will be the week that it becomes clear the Fed is going to cut rates soon. I don’t think they’ll be able to wait till December to September, which is what the odds on support. I don’t even think they should wait till July. I think they should do it next week.

They won’t. You know, the Fed meet fomcs next week. They won’t do it next week because of messaging, narrative control. It would send the wrong message to the markets and probably freak the markets out. All the recession, people would come back out in four, four, oh, recession, recession. We’re not gonna have a recession. Okay. That’s not gonna happen.

But the Fed has been, this fed under Jay Powell has already made four major policy mistakes that this guy got the job by Trump, by the way, in 2018. Okay? Four major policy mistakes. We know the big ones, right? Just a quick trip down memory lane. Remember the fourth quarter from hell, 2018. He got the job in 2018 and already tried to sink Trump by the end of the year. We had the December 4 quarter from hell and the Christmas collapse, right? It was the worst fourth quarter in December since the Great Depression because Powell got it wrong. Eight straight hikes that year that were not needed. We know, of course, the famous one with the pandemic where it was, oh, there is no inflation.

[00:15:53]:
It’s transitory. I don’t know. It’s not. It’s 41 year high inflation. Right. Just, that’s how bad this guy is. Because they are, they always wait too long to take the steps necessary. And so it creates this havoc that’s just not necessary.

And so that’s where I’m going with this today, because there is a risk, there is a near term risk that there could be an overreaction in the markets to another fed policy error. And that’s why I wrote this morning that this week with the employment, we get the jobs data on Friday. We are, as we said this morning, we are looking for a miss to the data. The official estimate is 190,000. You’ll never, ever hear, almost never hear me talk about an individual estimate for jobs report. But I kind of went on limb this morning. I talked about it over the weekend. Yeah.

All the signs are there. You read the tea leaves. They’re all there. If you got decent instincts, right? And again, we’re not. That’s where the more arts and science thing is. You have, you’ve done this long enough, you start to trust your instincts, right? You see all the signs and you know what start to look for? That’s the vibe I’m getting. That’s the vibe we’ve been getting. And we’ve been reporting this.

[00:17:07]:
All the sign, look at all the things that are, look at all the interest rate derivatives of interest rates that are telling us, that are screaming at us. Rates are going lower. And yes, the economy is slowing. Look at utility stocks now. Yes, I know they’re going parabolic because of electrification, the ev of the world. I understand that. But they’re also the largest borrowers of money. So utility stocks, when do they go parabolic? They don’t, but I think they’re discounting lower rates.

Largest borrowers of capital in the country, precious metals. What have gold and silver been doing they’ve been going straight up again. They do that in a rate cut or a QE environment. Okay, look at the ten year yields again today. We’re down to a 4.4% yield again. We were 5% last October. And then we’ve slowly come down a series of lower highs. Ten year yields are telling you rates are going lower today.

This is what I pointed out on Twitter today. I’ll probably write this up tomorrow. All of a sudden, today, when we got this data today, which showed that we had both ISM manufacturing data today, which was a miss to the downside, we also got today, was it construction data as well today? That was amiss. So that all of a sudden you looked up and the regional bank stocks were down 2%. That’s the first canary in the coal mine that I look for in this environment, especially with all the commercial real estate issues. Right. In this environment, regional bank stocks have the most exposure to a Fed mistake. We saw that last spring, didn’t we? Right when Silicon Valley, etcetera, bank went under.

[00:18:51]:
So along with, what, four or five others? And so that’s what you look for. That’s the canary in the coal mine today. It was down 2%. Now we rallied from there. So again, I’m not saying, and I’m not trying to imply that we’re going to have any kind of a massive meltdown in the markets by no stretch. However, if a couple regional banks get in trouble because the Fed is making another major problem, waiting too late. What if they do wait till September and we continue to get bad economic data? You can see how this snowballs quickly. And this environment, it doesn’t take long.

Money moves fast, people react fast, right? Attitudes and moods change quickly, and futures traders jump on one side and they force the action. But because the Fed waits for forever to make a move, that’s when the disruption takes place. And that’s what we don’t want anyone part of. So we have to prepare for that. This is the world we live in now, right? So that’s how our medium to long term bullish theme is completely intact. But in the short term, we have to deal with these pools of the Fed and the way that they can impact the economy and the markets, more importantly, in the short term. All right, so that’s what we’re watching here. What else has been telling us that look at the dollars week.

Now, also, again, we have this longer term theme of, again, disruption and disinflation coming from that. So all of this is forcing rates lower. It’s going to continue to force rates lower. The Fed should not be restrictive and something could go wrong. These are the things we’re watching to make sure we’re not too exposed, because who wants, especially if leverage, use leverage. ETf’s like we do. Last thing you want to do is be on the wrong side of the market. All of a sudden you get an eight to 10% surprise correction, right? Because you have three time leverage ETF.

[00:20:42]:
That’s not eight to 10%, that’s 25% to 30% hit. That’s pain, brother. And who wants to live through that? Not me. That’s why we have to stay on top of this. And that’s why we do stay on top of it. So I’m just putting that out there so we’re on the same page. As I also wrote this morning, though, I don’t think that’s really going to happen. But this Fed, you got to be aware.

But as I focused on this morning, our very letter, and we’ll talk about now, the real opportunity from this is going to continue to be precious metals. And the miners. The miners, as long as the markets don’t drop a lot, because the miners, after all, are equities. But unless we have some kind of a liquidity, liquidity freeze up, I don’t foresee that at all, then precious metals and gold and silver will continue higher along with bitcoin. These are interest rate sensitive groups that have shown us that they do very well when the Fed’s expected to cut, when ten year yields are headed lower, and when the possibility of additional kidney is at least on the horizon. And it won’t take much for those odds to come back. Okay. It won’t take much.

Again, with this federal reserve, you can’t trust them. So you have to be aware of this stuff. You have to worry about it. Unfortunately, you know, if Trump does win, I do hope he gets rid of Jay Powell. He seems like a likable enough guy, but he just doesn’t have the instinct. He just, guys does not have the feel. He’s just, he waits too long and he’s just, he’s a deer in the headlights. He’s a complete deer in the headlights.

[00:22:13]:
So, yeah, so that’s where we are. That’s what we’re looking at. But again, the opportunity here is gold, silver, and bitcoin, especially if we continue to get some weak economic data on Wednesday with the ISM services, that’s going to be close to, more closely watch now than it would have been, I promise you that. And of course, Friday we get the jobs data. So the way we’re treating it here is we are adding two positions in gold, silver and the miners and bitcoin. And again, we have a new bitcoin related idea. And the options and options play that we’ll walk you through tomorrow for our very members. We’ll start setting it up like we like to do.

We’ll just surprise you with it. We’ll introduce it to parabolic folks first, because that’s, that’s, that’s proper way to do it. But anyway, that, that’s our game plan for the week. Because look, this is the bull market of bull markets for gold, silver and the miners. And for bitcoin. This is bitcoin. Bitcoin is a ten backer. How.

Okay. It just is. It’s just. Look, if you’re new here, I’ll spend a second on it wrote up this morning. I recommend that you read over this morning’s letter and read through Peter Brandt’s article. This guy is a fantastic technician. Okay? Old school. Done this longer than I have.

[00:23:36]:
And he’s not a fundamental guy, much as he is a pure technician. And so he understands these relationships and how they work in a level that I have, that he’s beyond me. Okay. But I understand what he’s talking about because we’re looking at the same things. And what’s happening with bitcoin right now is fascinating. Okay? Because bitcoin. Think about this. We already know they’ve got the SEC blessing, right? Legitimate.

It’s a commodity that’s not going to be reversed. It’s a real deal. These bitcoin ETF’s are here to stay one by one. You saw the state of Wisconsin now has bought $150 million, $115 million of bitcoin. This is going to continue to happen. Global governments are going to start sovereign wealth funds. This is all El Salvador already doing it. It’s going to continue to grow.

The supply demand story. There’s nothing, there’s never been a supply demand story, period, that I’m aware of. In the world of investing like bitcoin, you don’t have to love it. You don’t even understand it, but you must own it. It must be part of your portfolio. I don’t care if it’s just a one 10th of 1%. Put it. Put something away.

[00:24:44]:
Because once you own a piece of something, you are more interested. You start following it so you don’t have massive exposure. But just keep adding. Start small and add to your position. This is what we’ve said, for what we did, Tyler and I started buying $600 in bitcoin, and we didn’t buy all that much, but it got us interested. Right. And so that’s when we started really sinking our teeth into it saying, what is this here? Right. So, but the key point of a bitcoin, of course, has got the SEC approval.

They just had their having. And remember, this is the fourth having. They just had the fourth having. The biggest moves have come a year to 18 months after the having. That’s where we are now. Now the month after the having tends to be weak. We’ve just come out of that period now. Right.

And now the charts look good. It’s a coiling for the last two months. Chart looks fantastic to me. As we’ve been writing up. It’s ready to go. I’ve probably written that 20 times in the last couple of weeks because it’s ready to go. And now over the weekend, Peter Brandt and some very, very other good technicians that follow money supply that have had this correlation between money supply and bitcoin. And it turns out the biggest moves, the biggest moves in bitcoin have occurred not only after the halvings, but in coordination with these, when bitcoin surpasses m one money supply on the charts, as simply as I can put it, that’s it.

[00:26:10]:
And that’s happened now. And we also, by the way, an inverse head and shoulders formation. So it’s just, it’s like all of these things are adding up and it does make you salivate if you’re, again, if you’re, if you like bitcoin, as we do, folks, I’m telling you, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s all there. It’s all there. I think the monster moves coming. We’re on record as saying we’re looking for a hundred thousand by year end. I would, I wouldn’t be surprised. It’s not a prediction.

I wouldn’t be surprised the 100,000 this month. I wouldn’t be surprised at all. And that’s why I think you just have a position in it and then continue adding to it, because over a long time, and I’ve said this before, I’ll say it again, we will still be recommending and purchasing bitcoin at $1 million because it will still be cheap then. Now, when that’ll be, I don’t know. 20. 302-032-2035 I’d say 2030, 2035 in that range. Could be sooner, a little later maybe, but it will still be a buy because of the lack of supply. That actually works, doesn’t it? It’ll still be a buy because of the lack of supply.

Sometimes I amaze myself. I’m horrible at rapping, but that might, that might work. But anyway, bitcoin is a great setup here and I think it’s only going to get better. Of course, money printing, it’s not going to go away, you know. What would you rather own as a current, if it was a currency? It’s not as commodity. But if bitcoin was considered a currency, what would you rather own? Long term bitcoin or the dollar? That’s not, I don’t think that’s a difficult, I don’t think it’s a difficult question. I think it’s an easy answer. Right.

[00:27:40]:
And so that’s why we own it. Of course, we do it either through bitcoin or we like Ark B, which is the Cathy woods ark ETF, one of the original ten. Right. For the SEC approved bitcoin ETF’s. And that’s, that’s, that’s, that’s really what I want to get across to you today on, on bitcoin because I get ready to go. Precious multi miners. You know what we think there long term bulls looking fantastic fed. That’s what we gotta, that’s, that’s what we get to be aware of now, action today.

Look, you probably already know what the markets did by now. I’ll just say the highlights we had not a mirror image of Friday. Remember, Friday was a massive blast off hour, the smart money hour, last hour trading was fantastic. That’s a tell. That’s a tell. We pay attention to what happens in the last hour of trading. It’s a big tell, always has been my entire career. I think it’s more important now than ever.

And with the Dow rally, 500 points, Nasdaq intraday up 290 points. I mean, these are, that’s a lot of buy programs. We have not had this, this is something that has not yet happened in this bull market. And we saw it on Friday. That was a, that, that was a combination of big buy programs. Now, by the way, it just all happened to be that we’re starting a new month, okay? So, you know that those, those beginning of my fund flows, I think there was some discounting of that happening, too. But again today, it happened again. You know, Nasdaq dropped today.

[00:29:07]:
I’m sorry. We were working a lot of things. I didn’t see the intraday low in Nasdaq, but Nasdaq was down at one point today, I saw it down 60, 70 points. We finished up 93. Right. So that’s your strength. The semis finished up 1.4%. They were down big earlier.

Again, this is our leadership still leading. So that’s, again, everything rallied into the close. That’s what you want to see. And that’s good. Back to back days, back to back days of a strong smart money hour for a market that could have been weak. Intraday did not happen. That’s a tell. So the internals today, honestly, there wasn’t much there.

They weren’t great, they weren’t horrible. I don’t even know there’s a reason to go through it, frankly. They’re basically 50 50 I’m looking at right now. Nasdaq volume was positive by a billion dollars worth of trucking. That’s good. NYC volume was slightly negative. There’s nothing there. We’re going to call it.

[00:30:06]:
It was a win today, but it was just a slight win. But that’s fine. We accept that every now and then, not every day can be two to three to one positive in our sector. Watch today. Remember also on Friday, all eleven sectors higher on Friday. Again, Friday was a tell. Not the case today, but not much damage done. Energy was down today.

Again, that’s another deflationary looking, lower rate thing. Right. Oil, do you see oil is dropping here. Oil today down even as OPEC, they may be due. I don’t really, honestly, again, today was one of those days, I can tell you. Oil finished down today. The energy sector finished down a big 2.6% today because oil was down today. And I know there’s a lot of questions about why that’s happening, but I’ll tell you, the big takeaway for me is that it’s another indication that the economy is slowing around the edges.

The economy is slowing. And again, that’s a short term thing, right? It’s not a, it doesn’t represent a medium to long term risk to us, but short term, because of this fed being too restrictive. You bet your butt. They again are making, and I just feel it, they’re making another polish mistake. And so I think it’s smart to be a little protective with your portfolio in this kind of a setup. But we do that right through bitcoin, gold and silver. Right. And tech.

[00:31:26]:
I mean, these are the, these are the interest rate sensitive groups that are going to do well if the market has a shakeout. That’s how we’re positioned. So we forget about that. But we had four sectors finished higher of what was this six finished? Lower one unchanged. Besides energy, no real Jamie’s done either way. And our commodity watch today, again, it’s like we ride it and it happens. Thank God. Right? Gold today, a big day, like dollar 25 now is at 23.71, better than 1%.

Silver, also a better 1%, 1.4% actually, at $30.88 an ounce. Copper today, flat at 468. Crude oil again today, down $3 a barrel at $74. You know, we like, we like energy stocks. These short term shakeouts are never fun. We’re about, we’d be buyers on this dip. And in fact, I’ll run the charts tonight, probably write this up tomorrow. Energy stocks, there’s such a, there’s going to be such a unbelievable demand for oil and gas and of course, nuclear because of what’s happening with AI and because of these data centers, because of the demand for this, for this.

Nvidia CEO talks about this, he goes, there’s just going to be a huge shortage of energy. Blackrock. Larry Fink, this guy was a big proponent of ESG doing away with oil and gas. And now do you see them over the weekend? Now, Larry, Afik is saying we’re not going to have enough oil and gas. There’s going to be big shortfalls. What happened to this guy? ESG is dead. Dei is dead. The red pilling of America is happening, folks.

[00:33:08]:
This was in our book, the Big Bribe. It’s one of our five mega trends. The red pilling of America is happening again. This is all coming together. So again, medium, long term, all huge positives. Short term, you gotta worry about the shakeouts, especially if you use some of the investments that we use. That’s why I’m spending some time talking about it. All right, finally today, again, bitcoin just covered it.

I’ll give you the last trade here. 69,100. That’s up. What, what is that up? Was it like three, two and a half percent today? These, these services, all 24 hours, up 2.7%. Last trade, 69,100. We think it’s going a whole lot higher. By the way, land of Fed, I don’t know if I said this. Land of fed just downgraded.

Another indication that rates are going lower because the economy is slowing. Land of Fed today just downgraded their gdp. Now estimate from Q two, economic growth of 2.7% down to 1.8%. Jay Powell and your merry band of money printers, are you paying attention, please? Wake up. Class. Class, anyone? Class? Hey, thanks, folks. Always appreciate you listening. Hope you have a great day and even better night.

[00:34:21]:
We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close. Bye.

Podcast Newsletter

Listen On

Time Stamps

00:00 Disciplined gambling with a system and opportunities.
05:17 Sports are thriving globally, despite media negativity.
06:25 Debating hyperinflation and debt in financial world.
09:45 Macro bullish outlook, GDP growth to soar.
13:32 Fed's rate restrictions put pressure on economy.
19:28 Fast money and Fed disrupt short-term markets.
21:02 Opportunity in precious metals and miners rising.
25:26 Charts look good, ready for big moves.
26:37 Expect Bitcoin to reach $1 million eventually.
31:57 Silver 1.4% at $30.88, Copper flat at 468, Crude oil down to $74.
33:08 Book's Big Bribe trend impacts investments, especially bitcoin.

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