In today's podcast, Kip explores a dynamic market landscape and discusses promising setups for key sectors, including technology, semiconductors, precious metals, miners, Bitcoin, Tesla, and more. Despite recent market volatility, the VRA still sees the potential for a strong stock market rally into year-end. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back to. The market is closed. Good Monday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a great day today. Hope the weekend was fantastic as well. We’ve got about five topics to cover that are very important. Tyler and I just had our pre podcast meeting.

What a great, absolutely great looking setup we have in these markets for all the things that we care the most about. Tech, semis, precious metals, miners, bitcoin, Tesla, dollar, and yields are very systems sending some very, very clear, unequivocally clear signals here. Look, there’s never a guarantee, but, man, this is about as good as it gets. I’ll cover those quickly. Going to write this up tomorrow as well, because it’s all, it’s already been a great move higher. We started writing six weeks ago and covering on this podcast daily that we believe this market had a feel of a market that was a melt up market both into the election and year end. We also been saying daily that we thought this market was going higher, predicting a Trump win because the markets discount. Of course, markets are smarter than all human beings combined.

[00:01:05]:
This is why so many that practice groupthink that think they’re smart, they’re guilty. I mean, they’re very, very guilty. The smartest people, the least smartest sounding people are the worst about analysis paralysis. And so they get their own way, and they miss all the big turns, they miss all the big macro stories because they get caught up in minutiae, right? And it just, it kills your returns. You cannot practice, at least in my opinion, you cannot practice analysis paralysis and ever hope to beat the markets. You got to have a system that works, that’s reliable, that is based on repeating patterns. That’s what the VRA system is based off of. And because that repeating patterns, that’s what the market does.

It’s the basis of technical analysis. The markets trade off of repeating patterns. And that’s why technical analysis is so important. It’s why fundamental analysis is more important. We’re about 70 30 when it comes to it. But for all the turns, you know, and for all the. The nuanced positions that we take, it is it is increasingly relying on technical analysis and which, again, repeating patterns are an investor’s best friend. So we’ll talk about that a little today.

I guess I already did. But again, there’s some very, very clear looking setups here that we’re excited about. But again, we believe the markets are moving higher. Uh, because it would. Again, it wouldn’t. It’s not doesn’t matter who’s going to win. And again, this lies in the face of what so many think, you know, the fear mongers. And look, I get it.

[00:02:38]:
Look, I get, I really do get it. No one wants to see Harris wins. If you’re a patriot, I think if you consider yourself to be a patriot and maybe more of a traditional person, not progressive, traditional american patriot, you do not want to see Harris Winde. But I’m going to tell you that it just does not matter because unless Harris wins and takes both the Senate and the House with her, then we’re looking at some trouble. Right. But we’re starting to see very clearly, unless they rig the you know what out of this, right. And you never can’t put anything past this date because they did in 2020, I think they probably done it in multiple elections. When I look back on it, I’m convinced now that Mitt Romney, as bad a candidate as he was, Mitt Romney is a soy boy, beta cuck.

That he was and is, I’m convinced that Mitt Romney beat Obama when Obama tried to get real life, he coming out of Obamacare, right. That was the first time I was like, wait, that didn’t feel right. That felt really wrong to me. And my instincts have been pretty good about elections because I rely on my wife. Cindy does not miss these things. And it’s crazy how often she gets these right. So we’re always talking about this and seeing how she feels. She’s back on the Trump train, by the way, and she was off it for a long time.

She is back on. She still has a bit of a hard time listening to him or watching him, but she’s absolutely voting for him. And that was something that wasn’t going to happen just a month ago. Right. So, but the point being, unless Harris wins and does, you know, takes a complete sweep, right, clean sweep, there’s going to be gridlock in DC. Not so much with Trump because Trump moves mountains and he’s now hyper focused. You’ve not noticed. He learned, he learned he was a, he was a, he was a newbie when it came to politics.

[00:04:22]:
Not anymore. He got this stuff figured out. So again, the markets are just counting a Trump win. I don’t think there’s any doubt about it. But again, the markets understand as long as there’s not Harris taking both the, both the House and the Senate, we have a structural market of size and scope that we’ve been talking about here for a couple of years. Right. That’s what’s powering everything, this innovation revolution, that’s a, the overwhelming macro story that matters. And that’s why we’ve been melting up.

Now, we didn’t today, but we saw some very, very good things happen today, even with the Dow Jones falling 344 points. But again, we’ve had, what, six straight weeks since we first said this six weeks ago that we thought the markets could melt up into year end. We were expecting a rally based on expected Trump win since we said that the markets have been up six straight weeks. These are six weeks, folks, at fresh all time highs. This is the longest rally of the year, and it’s also the most important rally of the year because we’ve now gone two straight years with the markets being higher. Two years of bull market, once you got two years of bull market in, the odds are like 95% that it’s going to carry on for more than five years. This is, again, very powerful analytics that just confirm the bull’s view. And I just am amazed the number of people that I see that I actually respect.

And I know a lot of these people and they’re still bearish. They’ve missed the entirety of this move. You know, with all the things that we’ve been telling you about here, this, this, this psyop, this, this psyop is in place. It is real psyop of negativity. It’s real. And it’s almost like, you know, Trump broke a lot of people. Trump broke the left. I think, I think this market, maybe it is Trump, maybe it’s politics, I don’t know what it is.

[00:06:14]:
Maybe it’s the Fed, maybe it’s central banks. There are a lot of investment professionals that have been broken because there’s so much tunnel vision. They can only see our total debt. They can only see a geopolitical insecurity. They can only see what I’m talking about, but they don’t see the underlying structural strength of the economy and the market. That’s a big mess. But again, for us, for those that see this, again worked pretty well for the last two years. For those who can see the trees, for the forest, this is the best trading market that I’ve seen in my career.

There’s just no doubt about it. And I think it’s also become a very, again, from the way that Todd and I look at these markets within our investing system, this has become a much more predictable market. It’s doing what it’s supposed to do when it’s supposed to do it. And so this is, Todd and I were together this week and went to the UT Georgia game with Sam and I. Tyler, it’s just incredible experience that a drone show, I’d never seen a drone show. And, you know, stuff, things being created in the sky with drones and, you know, symbols. Ut a flashing, you know, a bull, a bull and bevo, I think his name is that. And of course, that wild overturned play.

If you watch the game, the fans are throwing bottles on the field and the rest overturned the call. We saw some things that were fun that night. Got to saw arch Manning play two series at the end of the first half. Of course, that’s Cooper Manning’s son, the brother of Peyton and Eli Manning. So it was a great experience. But I started down this path for reason. Now, oh, it’s the roaring 2020s. We just see it everywhere we go.

[00:08:01]:
Everywhere you go, everything is packed, right? So to those that are saying no one has money, everyone’s about to go bankrupt. It’s just not true. It’s just a lie. It’s part of this cycle negativity that’s, again, that’s infected so many people. But again, we have a big week here. Again, Tesla reports on Wednesday. Tech earnings really start to zoom up here. And so I think we’re going to.

I think this market’s in great shape again. Fourth quarter, that is the time to be in the markets. And by the way, it’s also the time to be in the semi tech semis. The chip companies, this is their strongest period by far. Seasonality is just now flipping to big time positive. We’ve not yet had an October surprise. That’s what everybody was waiting for. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen.

We’re only 15 days from the election. You know, we do know that the state capital s is. They’ll do anything. So, you know, you can never count them out. But, you know, we’re very close to get in this country back on the right track. The red pilling of America is real. It’s not just America, it’s the red pilling of the world. It is happening.

[00:09:06]:
People have woke it up in a good way. They’re woke, but in a good way. And I think, again, we’ve said this so many times, our best days are ahead of us. I’ve never been more optimistic for the future of this country because we are taking our country back. And maybe it had, maybe this had to happen. Maybe people just had to wake up again. Our five megatrends we outlined in the big bribe, all five are happening. So I think we had a little divine guidance here, if I’m being honest about it, that book kind of wrote itself for us.

We spent a year researching it and writing it. It all just fell together. We were blown away by what we were finding because it flew in the face of what Wall street analysts and what we’re seeing on the media just flew in all of it. Just like, why are we hearing these things? Why isn’t the media reporting on them? Why aren’t Wall street analysts reporting on this? Right. And so anyway, but it’s a great setup as we move into fourth quarter, especially again, if Trump wins, look out above, because so many people are out of this market, they’re scared to death. Well, if Trump wins, whenever that might happen, it might take 12345 days after with this rigged system, you just don’t know. But should Trump win? Oh, my gosh. That’s $6.5 trillion sitting in money market accounts.

[00:10:22]:
It’s going to come flooding into stocks. And it already has been, of course, again, all time high. After all time high, Dow Jones today did finish down 344 points. That’s down eight tenths to 1%. S 500. It was really, the Dow and Russ 2000 were at the hardest, but again, they’ve been pretty hot. Russ 2000 was down 1.6% today, yields spiking higher, dollars higher. I’m going to tell you in a second.

Let’s cover it now. Let’s cover the markets. And I’ll come back to this important topic. Tyler, I just talked about this, about the dollar and about yields, because the fear mongers are out. The fear mongers are out. They’re telling you rates are going to keep going higher and the dollar now is going to keep surging higher. They’re not. Okay.

The primary trends are lower for both. I’ll explain that as well. First of all, the markets again rose. 2001, loser on the day, down 1.6%. That’s 500 down two tenths of 1%. Nasdaq got winner on the day, three tenths of 1%. But sector wise, semis were down today and they came rallying back and led higher by the close up, 710% to 1%. Again, we’ve got some very specific investments that we own in the semis, both in the VRA portfolio and in parabolic options that we’re very excited about into again, as we move into the fourth quarter and past the election, yields, okay, yields.

[00:11:42]:
So yields have been marching higher. The ten year yield is up to a 4.18%. All right. Now, again, it’s still down from 5%. Was the high. Okay. But after the Fed cut by 50 basis points, all yields have done is go higher. And that’s really confusing a lot of people.

Let me make it clear, let me make it simple for you. This is a counter trend move. Take a look at your charts. We’re going to write this up in the morning for both the dollar and for the ten year yield. And you look at them and they are just a spitting image of each other. These are counter trend moves. We have bear markets that have started in yields, yields going lower, bond prices going higher. So it’s really a bull market in bonds, but looking at from a yield point of view, yields going lower.

But now the ten year yield has traded back up to its 200 day moving average. Also, while hitting our most overbought designation, we call extreme overbought on steroids. This is a perfect setup. If we traded bonds more, I can tell you what we’d be doing. And it’s not that we don’t want to trade bonds. Sure we know what we do. We know that trades we make. But you’ll make more money in other areas.

[00:12:50]:
That’s why we really avoid that in the dollar as far as specific trade. Now if we traded futures, you bet your butt we would, we would be shorting bonds, assuming we’d be shorting yields, if you will, and we’d be shorting the us dollar here. Because this, again, we’re now an extreme robot back to the 200 day on both, again, mirror images of each other, really. And that’s a great skill. It’s being great setup for the market to continue moving higher because even with a strong dollar, even with strong yields, right, rising yields, the market has not even been affected by it whatsoever, has it? So there you go. There’s your proof right there. The markets know what’s coming next. That’s the point.

And again, we’ll write this up tomorrow. We’ll share these charts because they are important charts. It says, it helps you set up for the macro to understand what’s going to happen next. When it comes to tech and semis, the biggest beneficiary of lower rates, when it comes to precious metals and miners, the biggest beneficiary of a lower dollar and lower rates and easy money policies. Because again, one more point. You know, these experts just crack. They honestly crack me up. They really do.

Because they change mind. Like every week they change their mind. We went from no inflation to oh my God, we got 40 year highs, inflation yields keep going higher and then all of a sudden, no, no yields are going to go back. They’re going to plummet because the economy is going into recession or worse. And now everybody’s like, no, the economy is too strong. These experts are not really experts. I guess they’re opportunists. Frankly, if I’m being honest, they’re opportunists.

[00:14:26]:
But again, that’s when having a reliable system that works, you know, and that’s why we had the vora system to make sure all the noise, you know, stays out of our heads. Right. But, you know, it is crazy how everybody flips back from one theme to the next without any seemingly guidewire that they, that they work off of. I don’t know, frankly, how a lot of these people even have jobs. I don’t. And these are some of the top, you know, mines apparently on Wall street. You know, they’re pulling down big money and they get call after call after call after call wrong. And you’ve seen these people, the Jim Cramers, the Mike Wilson’s, the Morgan Stanley, the guy that got fired from JP Morgan.

He’s already gone. I’ve forgotten his name now. He ran JP Morgan’s research for a long time, but again, he was just bearish for forever and just got, you know, he hurt so many people. He hurt a lot of people with his horrible calls. So trend followers, that’s where the place be a trend follower. That way you’re always on the right side of the market. You don’t have to try to tell the market because the market wants to tell us. The market does every day, tells us what it wants to do.

And these counter trend moves give you great setups, great technical setups to take the flip side of that trade as the primary trend begins to emerge and reestablish its dominance. And that’s what’s about to happen here. And again, that’s just going to be a great setup for the semis, great setup for the broad market, great setup for bitcoin, precious metals and miners. I mean, this is a, again, I’m looking forward to writing this up tomorrow, as you can probably tell because it’s a series of pictures that tell themselves it’s a story that sells itself. But again, we are very bullish here. We’ve had a great run. I’m not at all surprised to see a little weakness here. I think it’ll be very short lived because this does.

[00:16:19]:
Again, it still has the feel of a melt up bull market that, you know, there’s just so much cash on the sidelines, just great setups everywhere you look. And again, we are hyper bullish here, as we have been for some time. Yeah. The semis, I think, are going to lead probably starting now. You know, you look at the chart, the semis have pulled back all the over, all the extreme overbought readings are gone. They pulled back to important support levels, and now they’re not overbought at all. Now the semis now are hitting heavily, almost extreme oversold on stochastics, our shortest term momentum oscillator. It’s kind of crazy to think that the year they’ve had and the market kept hitting highs, the market, six weeks now, been hitting all time high, and the semis really haven’t led.

It’s an ideal setup for this group to once again reestablish its dominance because it does lead the markets in both directions. It’s kind of amazing that we did not have a sell off in the market with the semis being, I wouldn’t call them weak, but just not taking a leadership role, if you will, over the last four or five, six weeks, something like that. All right, let’s see here. What else. You know what, I wrote this up this morning. The miners included 1233 charts that are really important, I think, because this is, we are, we’re on the verge, right? We’re on the verge of the miners transitioning from what had been a deep value play to parabolic momentum plays. We’re on the verge of that happening now. You see it in these charts of the GDX to SB 500.

You know, the miners are breaking a 13 year trend line with the S and P 500. That’s just now happening. You know, so that, that signifies a big, a change, a big pattern change. Right. And a long term, a long term move higher than miners multiple years. We believe the bull market of bull markets for this group. We also share this morning one of my favorite relative stream chart that there is outside of the semis leading the market higher and lower is GDX to gold. When the miners are leading gold in either direction, that’s the way you want to be invested.

[00:18:41]:
That’s the power move. And if you look at this chart, relative strength again of GDX to gold from the February, from the birth of this, when we started pounding the table on the Myers in February 28. Right. And we’ve been a lot of money in these stocks since then. NGT is up 140% or something since then. That’s, again, that’s just in what? Since February, right. Really beginning of March. But you look at this relative strength chart and all the miners have done is, again, is just led higher consistently.

That’s the biggest buy signal of my career in this group. As we’ve been saying here, often, once volume starts coming into GDX, folks know this. Take this to the bank. This is Bible. But again, I wouldn’t say it if I didn’t believe it. If I’m wrong, I’ll admit it, but I believe this is going to be the case once volume starts coming into the minor ETF. GDX, look out. I don’t think the bull market even started yet.

Even with these explosive moves we’ve had in precious metals and miners, especially miners, I don’t even think the bull market started yet. Until. It won’t start until volume starts trading over 50 million shares today, then 70, then 100 million plus. I shared a chart that broke that down this morning. Right now, we’re averaging the ten day average for a GDX is like 16, 17 million shares. It’s just, it’s tiny compared to where we’re going. That tells you the public is yet to buy into this. Right? Wall street yet to buy into this.

[00:20:09]:
So we’re early. I like being early because I like building positions. And then now we’re ready, both financially from a price point of view. Financial point of view. And we’re ready mentally, right. Because we see it. We see what’s about to happen once the big money shows up. This is going to be parabolic, though.

And so we’ll already be positioned. We won’t have to chase is the point. And so that’s what we think is coming next. Starting to see a little bit of that happen. For example, on Thursday, excuse me, Friday, volume in GDX was 31 million shares. Now, as small as that is, that’s the most active it’s been in some time. Today, even though GDX was higher again today, gave back some of its gains from the opening, and this group is overbought. But GDX did trade 21 million shares.

I’m telling you, this is chump change. Just. Just get ready for what’s coming. Okay? All right. I’m a broken record on that. I know. That’s just how I’m built. What else? Today, bitcoin, another big beneficiary of potential analysis.

[00:21:10]:
But more importantly, beneficiary of what’s happening with this crazy printing of money and the fact that our debts going to keep rising exponentially. We can handle it. Now, again, the people that are saying we’re about to, you know, we’re about to go and solve it, you know, we’re about to default in our debt. These people are crazy. They’re literally crazy people. They’re just. They’re. They’re just.

They’re saying it to get attention, or they’re. I don’t know. I don’t know. But it’s not reality. The United States is the world’s reserve currency, the dollar world reserve currency. And our financial balance sheet is far better than China’s, our Japan’s. And again, we move mountains when we want to. And, again, imagine what we could do with Trump as president.

Again, assuming he’s serious about bringing down costs. That’s what Elon Musk said he wants to do, is aspire 7% of all government employees. Yes, please. Right. Not a golf club. Standing ovation. Let’s get that done. So I think the markets are discounting all of this, right? And it’s just so many people that are just caught up on this debt thing.

[00:22:13]:
And I just. I’ve heard it my whole career, and they’ve been wrong, you know, for the entirety of the 40 years I’ve been in this business. So I think very good news is on the way here. That’s why the market’s going up. It’s discounting what’s about to happen and has been so far. And I think it will continue to. Yeah. Jardini joined us last night in calling for a melt up.

About a year after we said we’re in the roaring 2020s. Jardini joins us and then started saying that. Now, last night, he’s joined us saying we’re in a melt up. And so he does good work, by the way. He does. He’s a very good economist, market strategist. So it is validation for him to say that. And it’s good to have someone like that on our team because he’s got a big following.

[00:22:57]:
And again, obviously, we think he’s right. We’ve been saying it for a while. The bitcoin, again, technically, forever. It could not break through that resistance. That trend line at 67,000, where it’s hitting, finally broke through. It hit 69,000 overnight, and then this morning got whacked at the open again. These short term traders in the futures markets, they can dominate short term movements. And it’s a little frustrating, but just block that out because it doesn’t matter, because now support is at 67,000 of bitcoin.

And the next move is going to be, in my opinion, without question, going to be through all time highs. Call it 74,700. I think 74,700 is the high there. And then from there it’s up to 100,000. So just great setups and anti fiat currency plays, which of course are precious metals and bitcoin. All right, let’s take a look at the hoods. Were not good today. Anywhere you look, Nasdaq was fine.

I’m sorry. NYC was weak today. Let’s get that screen up. Here we go. NYC, Washington, four to one, negative on advanced decline. Not a good day there. A Nasdaq only two. Just over two to one negative, advanced decline.

[00:24:19]:
NYSE volume negative 71.6%. 6% of all stocks declined today for NYC. Nasdaq positive 60.8%. So you’re seeing that internal stream already starting to show up for this big fourth quarter rally that we’re going to have in tech stocks and I think really specifically in semis. Infinity hit another all time high today by the way. It’s kind of roaring back after getting whacked there. We also had today 265 stocks under 50 KAIS and just 95 hitting a new 52 week low in our sector watch today. This is ugly.

We had ten of eleven sectors finished lower. Only sector up was technology. The one that matters most. We’ll take that. That’s a tell today 910% to 1%. To the downside, real estate down 2%. Healthcare down 1%. Everywhere else fairly quiet.

Then our commodity watch today again, they’ve been on a real tear, haven’t they? Gold today up another $4 an ounce, 27.34 an ounce. Again it’s broken through its all time high. And now we’re talking about measured targets and that’s why we had been, we had said first the 2124, hundred and 2700. We’ve broken all those. Now our target is 3000. That’s by year end or early in the first quarter. And again our longer term targets 5000 plus I actually think gold is going to 10,000. This move we are aggressively long.

[00:25:45]:
Precious metals about 70 or 80%. Gold to silver and of course the miners as well. Gold today again up $4 an ounce. Silver, it finally play a big catch up here. Up 6% on Friday. Up another 2.2% today. Up $0.75 an ounce today at 33 98 copper quiet today down half percent at $4.36 a pound. Crude oil bouncing back up just under 70.

69.77 a barrel. Up dollar eight a barrel today. And finally again bitcoin. Just a great looking chart. You know it’s just without these futures traders bitcoin would already be at 100. There’s just no doubt in my mind about it because the demand is swamping supply. Right. And the number of new coins mined every day is only 450.

We got seven 8000 bitcoin net purchases every day now happening. So it’s just a matter of time. Again, we’ve said this now for a long time. There is no better supply demand story in the planet than bitcoin. The best of my career. So again, treat every serious pullback as a significant buying opportunity in bitcoin. As long as you’re diversified, you’ll be, I believe, very happy that you did. Last trading bitcoin now, 67,860, down 1.3% in the last 24 hours.

[00:27:04]:
All right, folks, that’s it for the day. Hope you had a great day and even better week. Excuse me. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close. Bye.