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VRA Investing Podcast: May Market Surge, Energy Setups, and Gold’s Stunning Rally – Kip Herriage – June 2, 2025

In today's episode, Kip recaps a standout finish to the month of May in the stock market, with the S&P 500 up 6% and the Nasdaq up an impressive 9% returns we don't see every month. He unpacks why the old adage "sell in May and go ...

Posted On June 02, 20251617
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About This Episode

In today's episode, Kip recaps a standout finish to the month of May in the stock market, with the S&P 500 up 6% and the Nasdaq up an impressive 9% returns we don't see every month. He unpacks why the old adage "sell in May and go away" hasn't worked for years, and what these rare, powerful market moves could be telling us about what's coming next. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Transcript

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Monday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. We finished the month of May in fantastic form. You’ve probably seen the data by now, but, yeah, the S500 finished up 6% in the month of May. Remember, selling May go away. Didn’t quite work out that way, did it? Matter of fact, that has not been working for like a decade now.

But anyway, May was fantastic for S & P 500, up 6%. Nasdaq up 9%. These are pretty rare kind of returns on a monthly basis, and it tells us a lot about what’s going to happen next. That’s why today we opened sharply lower, down a couple hundred points. Dow at one point, down 300 points. Nasdaq down well over 150 points, finished higher across the board today. Again, it’s not how the market opens, it’s how it closes. It’s a smart money hour versus the amateur hour.

[00:00:56]:
And this is what the market’s been telling us. If you just pay attention, you know, if you just watch the market, you know, if you’re a trend follower, which we are, it, it takes away the most difficult decision that you have, which is, should we be in the market or not? Should be long or should it be short? And then what sector should we be in? Again, the market tells you all this, and so we’re, it’s telling us that right now, okay, Gold is up 90 bucks an ounce today. The miners up 6% today. Oil today, up almost 3% today. We think there’s a good trade coming there. As a matter of fact, we’re gonna, we’re gonna put a new position on tomorrow morning in the VRA portfolio along these lines and some energy stocks. So look forward to that first thing in the morning. It’s already written up, ready to go.

The point being, when you have this kind of strength in the market, what you want to start doing is you still want to hold your winners, but now you want to start looking for areas that are cheap. What’s going to play catch up, right? What’s what based on probabilities, right? This is not, we’re throwing darts here. This is based on what should move next. Here’s, here’s, here’s the rotation that’s going to take place into value, specifically into this group. Okay? And so that’s where we are now because this, this is the market that is rising. Tide lifts all boats. This is a new, powerful bull market that’s going to go much, much higher. We haven’t even made it back to all time highs yet, folks.

Right. We still haven’t gotten there yet. So that’s got to happen first. Remember 2020. This is the analogy we’ve said that makes the most sense based on our work in 2020. You know, we went through the five week plan demic crash, right? What? Down 38% at one point for NASDAQ in five weeks. Right. Brutal.

[00:02:38]:
Absolutely brutal. But then we got back to all time highs again in June, July, and then we finished up another 60% from there. So I think this is maybe, maybe not quite those kind of fireworks, but still much higher. And we’ve got some good data to back that up. We showed this this morning. First of all, when for the S500. When, when, when the, when the, when the month of May has better than a 5% gain. We just had that up 6% in the month of May.

The data tells you. This hasn’t happened very often, by the way. This has only happened what, six times? It’s only happened six times. But the data tells you over the next 12 months the S500 was up on average 20% and up, up, up every time. Right. So that’s just more good analytics. We told you this last month because in the month of May we also got breath thrust, called the two separate breath thrust. One is Whaley breath thrust and the other the Degraff breath thrust.

I’m sorry, we got the Zweig breadth thrust and then a graph breath thrust. I see. I had a typo in my update this morning. Sorry about that. But these are rare to have these happen at the same month because they’re very different. One happens when 55% s 500 hits a 20 day high in a short period of time. And the other happens when breath explodes higher. The percentage of advancing stock spikes dramatically over a very short period of time, measured on a 10 day advanced decline ratio.

[00:04:09]:
We got both of those buy signals from these breath rust also in the month of May. So for these to happen together is incredibly rare. This has also only happened eight times in history. Okay, go back. This all goes back to 1957. Why 1957? That’s when the SP 500 first became a thing. So this has only happened eight times. Check this out again.

It matches with all the other analytics for Getty. It’s almost, they’re almost all saying the same thing. The markets over the next three, six and 12 months or higher, 100% of the time. All the times this has happened with an average gain of over six months. Of 13.8%, an average gain of a one year of 24.6%. So we’re seeing this time and again with this data that tells us that we’re going to go not higher from here, we’re going a lot higher from here. And so look, if you’re a probability investor, you are heavily invested using this data and that’s what we’re doing here. So we’re looking to add positions, right? And when we get extremely robot we alert, okay, stop buying that.

We’re not going to sell it necessarily. Stop buying it. We just had that happen with two positions last week, right? GameStop, which we’re long had, set a great move higher but hit extreme overbought on steroids, our most overbought reading. And we’re like, okay, pump the brakes here. We’re not selling it, but we’re going to buy on the pullback because this is when bad things happen. It also happened in smr, New Scale Power, which is a small modular nuclear reactor company, right? Simple as smr, great symbol, same thing, spiked all the way up to 35 or so. Hit extreme steroids again, our most overbought designation. And so we just paused our, our buying and now it’s pulled back.

[00:06:02]:
I was up again today by the way, but it’s pulled back to the low 30s range. So that’s what we’re looking to do here. This is a market you want to continue to stay long and strong in. Hold your winners and then you know, hopefully you’re like us, you always keep some cash, right? Worst case, you can sell some gold. That’s what we, we use gold for cash. Okay? And I’ve done that in the past. I’ve done that where I’ve sold some gold. I need more equity exp.

Right. So you know our favorite positions, if you’re with us here for any time at all, you know the ones we talk about the most are the ones we love. Tesla is one of those names. This, this should. Today was not a good indication of this, but the month of June just happens to be the single best month of the year for Tesla from its IPO in 2010. So from 2010, 2010 in the month of June, Tesla has been on average 79% of the time with an average gain of better than 10% in the month of June. So with Elon Musk back at the helm full time, or about as full time as you’re going to get from him, we have heard he’s back to sleeping on the floor or sleeping in offices at least Robo taxi rollout begins what, not ten days from now. Yeah, that’s going to be a big deal.

Everyone will be talking about that. And of course now seasonality being this great, but of course we’re also talking about Optimus and where these robots are going to go in a very short period of time. There’s just a lot of reasons to be excited about Tesla. The stock was down about 1% today. So it didn’t go off to a great start for this June scenario we just talked about. But again, these are the ones we’re still backing up the truck and buying on. And it just looks great on the charts as well. All right, what else today? Let’s move on.

[00:07:48]:
Talk about the market itself. Again, good rally, good reversal rally today. This is textbook market stuff folks. As it continues smh, Todd and I, you know, just talked about this a few minutes ago and he’s like, you know what, here we go again. Look at this today the semis never went red today. SMH to Semi ETF up 1.6%. Right. It led NASDAQ up 7, 10, 1%.

Again that is textbook bull market behavior. And it just continues even with gold. With gold up 90 bucks an ounce. Okay. That typically tells you there’s something wrong, something’s going on out there. That’s not good news. It’s a store of value. It’s a flight to safety trade.

Right. Bond, bond yields were higher a bit today. Get oil up big. What’s going on geopolitically? Could this Russia, Ukraine thing, you’ve probably seen this by now over the weekend, this massive attack wave of drones that Ukraine used to get deep inside Russian territory. One of was in the Arctic, right? These are deep, deep inside Berea where drones can’t fly that far because they don’t have the battery power to fly that far. Well, they snuck these sub all these drones in in trucks and parked them near like their bombers. These are the nuclear bombers that they apparently destroyed like 10 of them and they don’t have that many. They have maybe 30 in total and they got 10 of them with one swarm attack, swarm of drones.

[00:09:19]:
And they, they, this is a long term strategy where they, they, they drove these trucks deep into Russian territory and it parked them and then had some kind of a mechanism that all these drones now I guess they’re, there’s a charging mechanism in there and these are all bombs and then they fly out of the trucks and they go destroy these aircraft and other. So you know again, goals up today for I think this isn’t going to escalate. You know, we’ve stayed away from the story, frankly, because, you know, this is the military industrial complex doing what they do, which is basically spend our money and money launder it. So we kind of stay away from this story. We don’t think there are any good guys in this story. But you know, when you see things happen that haven’t happened before, it does get your attention, right? And oil today at biggie and gold up today big. So it’s story we keep an eye on. But again, the markets rallied.

This is the kind of behavior in the stock market that you see when a market wants to go higher, not lower. I would, I. We actually expected the market to be down today for a combination of reasons. May. May was fantastic. And now we’ve got this new geopolitical tension with Russia and Ukraine. You know, these are nuclear bombers that just got destroyed. So this is the kind of thing you don’t hear this right very often.

So it gets your attention, but the stock market just doesn’t care. It tells you how cheap stocks are. Again, as the best discounting mechanism on the planet. We are going higher. And the markets confirm that for us about every day now, don’t they? All right, what again, what else today? Take a look under the hood today. Sectors today were fantastic. 10 of 11 sectors finished higher internals today. Even when we were down early this morning, the internals were barely negative.

[00:11:00]:
We finished slightly lower. Advanced decline for nyse, slightly higher for advanced decline for nasdaq. But then you start getting into the volume, right? Volume was positive across the board. Let me give you the NASDAQ Update here. Yeah, 57% NASDAQ volume was higher on the day. Again, we did finish up 128 points of NASDAQ. But again, internals are great. We’re solid across the board.

We’ll take this as a win, especially as the market had been lower most of the day until the last hour, hour and a half of trading. And again, we got the smart money. Hour strength again, which is what you want to see. Again, sectors today, 10, 11 sectors higher. Energy led to the upside up better than 1%. Look, energy stocks have held up so much better than energy than oil has. Right. Again, we’ll be adding a new position tomorrow because we do relative strength analysis, specifically uncertain areas.

That really works well. And we’ve been aggressively long the mining stocks because gdx, the gold miner ETF has led gold over the last year. And really it’s gone parabolic from the beginning of this year. That’s why GDX, the gold miner ETF is the number one performing sector or subsector in the market this year, up 60% now, getting up 6% today. Well, we’ve noticed a similar pattern that is now developed in xle, the energy stock ETF to oil. It XLE has been leading oil higher just like GDX have been leading gold higher. And this tends to happen just before a big move higher. So again, we’ve been out of most oil and gas positions and we are looking to, to put some new.

[00:12:43]:
I think this group is cheap again. We’ll write this up tomorrow morning. We’ll have a new alert for you first thing in the morning. For all our VRA members here, it’s time to get back in the energy group. Of course we have the lost soldier, Oil and gas, which is a private. But it’s time to get back into publicly traded equities before Los Angeles goes public here the next, what is it, three years or so. But this group looks very good to us. The global economy is in great shape.

The demand for oil is going to pick up even if opec, OPEC plus of course has agreed to keep. This is now the third month in a row, I believe they’re like we’re going to keep flooding. We’re going to keep flooding the market with oil. We’re going to keep producing. Well, when oil starts going up, even on that kind of a pronouncement, then you see a pattern changing. We’ve seen that again, that’s already been taking place and exitly to oil itself. That’s, that’s the leadership group that you want to look for. So I think this is a bullish commentary for the price of oil and of course for energy stocks who are down like 15% from their highs.

So I think this represents a good opportunity to find again a sector that is not yet really participated. That’s still far below its highs. As much as we wanted to get back in the small caps, you know that that’s, that’s been a tough group to make money in. So right now we’re looking at just specific sectors to work off of. And right now energy stocks looks like it’s ready to join the party based on our work. Anyway, what else today? All right, let’s get right to commodities. How about that again? Big, big move higher today. Right from the outset, we saw gold.

[00:14:17]:
I went to bed last night. Gold was at 20 bucks an ounce. It closes up $90 an ounce. Now we’re just less, just less than $100 an ounce from an all time high. We’ve been telling you, all of these people out there saying oh the price of gold is topped the tops in place. That’s it. Sell your gold folks. They, they don’t.

They have no clue what they’re talking about. Right? They’ll still be saying this. When gold surpasses 5,000 an ounce. I promise you that. It’ll be the same people. They’ll still be calling it top gold. Right now trading at 3406 an ounce. Again, just 100 bucks away or so from an all time high.

Up almost 3% today. Silver Julie joined the party today. Up almost 6% today. Silver up A$90 an ounce today at 34.92. Did I say a pound for gold is my. I remember 3406 an ounce is what it should have been. Silver today. 3,492 announced good 6%.

[00:15:12]:
Move higher today almost for silver. Copper up 3.8% today, up 18 cents a pound at 485 a pound. Crude oil again, big move higher today. Up 3.7%. That’s 224 barrel at 6303 a barrel. Again, thinking there’s a good trade here folks. Maybe more than just a good trade. And finally today, bitcoin, I think it’s been this price down for the last three days, right? It’s stuck at 104 to 105 which is where it is now.

104,000. 104,886. Bitcoin again. This is a, it’s a move that’s consolidating. Frankly, I’m a little surprised it didn’t get hit more after the big Bitcoin 2025 conference last week. That’s been the pattern. It’s been the repeating pattern. You go back to past bitcoin annual events, right? The, the big one that they had just last week in Vegas.

After every one of these bitcoin sells off 10 to 20%. That just didn’t happen here. So it doesn’t mean it can’t. But I think, I think that that buy the rumor sell the news of that event is already out of the. Out of bitcoin now. And the demand is so overwhelming. Look, I think honestly we can wake up tomorrow. Bitcoin could be 130,000.

[00:16:21]:
It wouldn’t surprise me at all. So I think you just want to be long. This bitcoin is the best supply demand story of all time. And I think Michael Saylor’s got this right. I think. I think. I think Michael Saylor and a lot of other people have got this right. This move is going to continue higher for many, many years to come.

And they ain’t making more of it, as they say. All right, folks, that’s it for today. Have a great day and even better night. We’ll see back here again tomorrow after the close.

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Time Stamps

00:00 Market Trends and Investment Insights
04:33 Getty Markets to Rise: Data Shows
09:19 Drone Strategy and Market Reaction
11:55 Mining and Energy ETF Surge
13:46 Energy Stocks & Commodities Surge

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