In today’s episode, Kip breaks down a rollercoaster day in the markets, marked by pre-market jitters fueled by fresh Trump tariff threats, more pressure on China, tragic headlines with a Boeing Dreamliner crash, and escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. Despite this wall of worry, Kip highlights the market’s impressive resilience, with most major indexes rallying into the close and the semiconductors leading the charge.

Don’t look  back because the market is closed. Good Thursday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the Daily VRA Investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. A lot happened at the open this morning just before the open, didn’t it? We saw futures down sharply and a lot of bad news. Fresh comments from Trump about new tariff risk and what he might do in the near term. Some more negative comments about China if they don’t get their act in order. Then we had, of course, this tragic Boeing 1777 Dreamliner crash in India.

Just unbelievable what is going on with Boeing, right? Stock is of course a major, it’s of course in The Dow Jones SB 500 and this morning was down 7%. And amazing that one person walked away from that crash. Just imagine what their day’s been like, right? And of course now the kind of the biggie as applied to the oil markets and commodity markets has been this renewed threat that Israel is going to take military action against Iran. So look, a lot a big wall of worry that. We’re used to that though, aren’t we? This market certainly is. And even before the market opened, the future started to improve. And in midday we were positive. This has been the common theme, don’t sell this market short.

[00:01:24]:
Every rally has been a buy the dip opportunity. That’s just been the case. The April 7 lows. And of course we rallied today and finished higher. Everything AC except the Russ 2000 today finished higher on the day. Let’s go through it real quickly again, positive across the board. Dow Jones up 101 points on the day, a good spot. Running hour today.

It’s only up a quarter of a percent, but we’ll take it S500 up 410 of 1%. Nasdaq did not lead today, but is up a quarter of a percent again. We’ll take that as well. Let’s take a quick look at the semis. Of course, the semis have been leaning higher from exactly the April 7th bear market lows. And they led again today, up 4/10 of 1%. Semis been in beast mode. And as we know, when the semis leading higher or the semis are leading higher or lower, you know what that means.

The rest of the market’s going to follow eventually. So we want to see that continue to be the case. They’re essentially going parabolic now versus the SP 500 again. That’s very, very bullish. Rest of the markets, we’ve been telling you some time this market’s got a magnet tied to it to all time highs and then we think even more as we covered on Charles Payne show yesterday, I’m making money. Once we get back to all time highs and I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens tomorrow, frankly, once we get back to all time highs. If it’s like 2020, which we believe it is this V shaped recovery, look at the charts, it looks very similar to 2020. What happened after that though in 2020 was we didn’t stop there.

[00:02:56]:
Over the next 15 months, the the SB 500 rose another 42% and NASDAQ up another 70%. So we think that’s going to be a similar trading scenario here as well. And depths again. We’re looking forward to them. We just haven’t had many of them to buy. What else today? Interesting dollar if you’ve seen the US Dollar dollar traded down today broke a new broke another new low. Now trading at the lowest level since March of 2022. Rates are finally starting to crack a little bit.

The 10 year now down to 3. 4.35%. Trump again today. Scott Besant today. J.D. vance yesterday saying they’ve got to cut rates, the Fed has got to cut rates. What inflation? We’re not seeing inflation. The Fed has gone from being data dependent to guesswork, which is what Jay Powell said they never do.

Well, that’s exactly what they’re doing now. And the pressure being brought to bear on Jay Powell is appropriate. He either should give with the program, start cutting rates because the housing market is being hit really hard because of this second America being really hard because of this. The people he says he cares most about. Well, he’s not helping him. He’s hurting him. The 10 year we agree with Trump entirely. The 10 year yield should be at least the Fed funds rate should be one full percent lower than it is now.

[00:04:17]:
We may have a shadow Fed president appointed here. In other words, Trump may appoint a new Fed chair because Powell’s term is not up until May of next year. Trump may go ahead and appoint another Fed chair a year early. It won’t quite be a year, but It’ll be like 11, 12 months or 1110 or 11 months early because you’ll either 0.1 we’re hearing in June or July. So it’ll be a shadow Fed chair who will actually be out there talking about the Fed and the job they’re doing. I mean this could be very interesting. And who knows if this additional pressure brought to bear on Powell will make any kind of a difference. I personally don’t think that it will, but it’ll make for some good TV and some good drama.

And again, Jay Powell, just to be very clear about this is the worst fetch here of our times. This is he’s now on the wrong side. This is his fifth policy error since taking the job in 2018. Of course, he was appointed by Donald Trump back then as well. But his nickname of Too Late Jay Powell is very, is very, very apropos. Very, very appropriate for J Pal. What else? Today again, the dollar’s going lower. That’s very bullish for gold and for all commodities.

The U.S. you know, dollar based commodities and rates going lower. We’ve got, this is exactly what Trump wanted to see happen. Now it’s starting to happen. Of course, oil prices have been in the tank. We have a perfect setup here as China continues to export in deflation, not inflation, but deflation happening in Europe as well. Of course, they’ve cut rates eight straight times now the ECB has. And again, we’re sitting here, we’re a man on an island refusing to make things easier for the American people by cutting rates.

[00:06:06]:
The Fed does control the short end and then, you know, if they were to cut a full point, it would be a matter of maybe two weeks before we saw the 30 year tied to housing debt, which you see it fall, maybe not a 4% like the 10 year would or fed funds rate would, but it would fall a half to three quarters a point and then this very locked up housing market would begin to show some real activity. And of course housing is the most important thing. There is no more important asset in the country. It’s the most important. Everything’s tied to it. The rest of the economy would literally catch on fire and we’re seeing animal spirits come back now. That’s the last thing that needs to happen is rate cuts and this, this, this market will really take off then. That’s what we think is going to happen and that’s why this market keeps grinding higher, because the market is the best discounting mechanism there is.

The market sees it. I believe that’s what the market knows is coming is not lower rates, but much lower rates, continued lower dollar. That’s what Trump wants. This is all, by the way, all of this very, very bullish for precious metals and miners, which of course we have fantastic exposure to in the Avery portfolio. All right, let’s take a look under the hood today. Not, not much again really. We had a good comeback in the markets today, but not much happened anywhere else. We had internals today that were basically flat on the day advanced Decline and for Nasdaq, NYSE just mixed.

The NYSE was positive by 400 issues. Nasdaq negative by 300. That a watch there. Volume today, 77% up volume day for Nasdaq. Huge volume coming from a few stocks. Frankly very low price stocks but huge volumes today in Nasdaq. Total of $16.4 billion worth of trading in Nasdaq. You don’t see it very often.

[00:07:59]:
Again, 77% of volume today for NASDAQ. NYC was negative but only slightly so with 52% down day. Downside volume today and we also had two types of lows that came in positive by about about 110 issues. More issues positive than negative on the day. So quiet day but still positive. Internals sector watch also quiet but positive. Eight of 11 sectors finish high on the day led by utilities with rates coming down up 1.2%. Technology which you want to see up better than 1%.

To the downside. Really nothing to speak of whatsoever. Communication services down well half of 1%. That is about it in our commodity watch today again, you know, again, I think a lot of people feel, feel the gold is going higher because of the Iran tensions. That’s not the case in our opinion. Gold finished up today $63 an ounce up 1.9% of the day at 3,407 now sits less than $100 an ounce from all time highs. We think it’ll take that out likely before we get to the month of July. Gold is ready to.

It’s got in a beautiful expanding channel and it’s about midway in the channel now. Plenty of room to run. Same thing with the miners. Miners are ready to go parabolic in our opinion. And again a weaker US dollar, lower rates. And of course the money printing machine globally, the fiat money printing machine is only going to speed up from here. Debt issue is only going to speed up from here. No one’s serious about cutting, about cutting our spending and cutting debt.

[00:09:36]:
So again, there is no better place to have your money than gold and bitcoin. But as a reminder, we first recommended gold in 2003. If you had put $100,000 in gold in 2003 at our recommendation today, that $100,000 would be worth $700,000. If you put that same $100,000 in a 3% interest bearing money market account, that 100,000 after inflation would be worth $67,000. To be clear, both of these figures are after inflation. So you don’t. The smart money call here is do not save in fiat Currency, it’s like putting money in your mattress. Don’t do it.

Inflation is going to destroy the valuation. Save in gold, save in bitcoin. It may not sound like sound financial advice, but look at what history tells you about this decision. That’s what we’ve recommended for a long time and we still continue to recommend it. Gold, our target for gold is $4,000 now. So again, we’re only now $600 away from that. From that price target, Gold today up 1.9% to 3,407. Silver today up 4, 10, 1%.

3,641. Been a lot of excitement recently about silver. We’re about 80, 20 long. Gold to silver. We are gold bugs, much more than silver. But silver is starting to show some serious signs of life. It’s an absolutely take out. 50, basically 50 bucks an ounce is the all time high.

[00:11:05]:
That should happen this summer as well. Silver’s a good play here. Again, Last trade here, 36, 41 an ounce. Copper today up 6, 10 1%. Last trade, 484 a pound. Crude oil today rallying back up 40 cents a barrel. Been all over the place here, 6,855 Again, concerns are what’s going to happen with Israel and Iran and frankly oil is just too cheap here. Global economy is in pretty good shape.

Again, last trade, 6860 in crude oil. But the real trade there, the real play there is energy stocks. That’s where the real action is here. The leverage is always in the energy stocks or in the mining stocks over the commodity itself, especially when they’re in bull markets. But the play better now than oil is energy stocks in our opinion. Finally the day bitcoin showing some weakness here. Bit of a risk off mode here. I have no clue why.

It seems that everybody, their mother now is recommending bitcoin. Maybe that’s why it is overbought. But right now we’re trading it’s 106,671. That’s down 2% in the last 24 hours. All right folks, that’s it for today. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.