In today’s episode, Kip breaks down a strong turnaround in the markets, highlighting a broad-based rally that reversed the previous day’s losses. Kip dives deep into what’s driving these moves—including eye-opening market internals, the latest action in stocks, and key technical signals he’s watching for signs of a genuine recovery versus just another bear market rally. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. A good day in the market. Pretty much a mirror image, just a reverse of what happened yesterday. Good day today. Good, good strong smart money hour as well.

Good, really good internals today. Matter of fact, excellent internals. Let’s start with the markets. Dow Jones finishing up just below the highs of the day, up over a thousand points. That it’s up 2.7% of the day. Russ 2000 up 2.7%. SBI founder up 2.5. Nasdaq up 2.7.

[00:00:32]:
And the semis they were trying to, they did not lead, they lagged today. Still a semis up better than just over 2.1% today. So we’ll take it. Listen, if you like to look at charts at all, just pull up a chart. If you use, we use, you know, 50 day, 100 day, 200 day. And then for shorter term trading, this is where I’m going with this. Take a look at the we use the 8 EMA and the 21 EMA exponential moving average, right? And if you look at any chart of any major index, you’re going to see the exact same thing. If this in this bear market we’ve had so far that continues every rally, if it can get past the 8 EMA, then it stalls at the 21 EMA and reverses lower.

This is the trading pattern from these waterfall declines that have taken place that stands out. So we know where the bears are hitting, you know, we know where the shorts are jumping in and we know when short covering is taking place. That’s becoming pretty clear. We’re going to be paying more attention to that now. We use it for some trading opportunities, certainly in parabolic options and in the very portfolio as well. Because here’s the key again, throws very good today. If we can get through the 21 EMA, the next target is going to become the 5050 day moving average. And now you’re talking about more sizable gains and that’s when the shorts will be forced to cover.

[00:01:54]:
And that’s what we can try to get a rally going. But until then, and even then, by the way, even then, these rallies are to be viewed as bear market rallies. And today certainly did look like one. But again, the internals were very good today. I like the action that I saw today. I didn’t like how it happened, however, and this is going to be a bit of a short podcast we’re getting Ready for the Tesla earnings call and company update as beginning here in just a bit. They announced earnings, big miss as expected, lost, missed by a couple of billion on revenue. Pretty much in line with what they thought.

The stock is just up slightly after hours now. Trading up on the day over 5%. Up 12% on the day at 239. So we’re looking forward to this earnings call to see if they’ve got any surprise announcements on Cybercap and Optimus because right now the EV business is very slow. Elon Musk is hated by about half the country, if not half the planet. That’s done real damage to the company. And a lot of calls for Elon to come back home. You know, You’ve been in D.C.

for a while now. We don’t want you getting used to it, right? That’s not where you’re hired, that’s not your job there. Get back home, let your hirees, let them take over that job. Come back home and get Back to work. 247 for your shareholders in Tesla. That is certainly my belief as well. It’s time. This stock was a high of 488.

[00:03:14]:
Now it’s 239. You know, just brutality in a very compressed period of time. And really a lot of this just didn’t need to happen so but anyway we got the call coming up in a bit. We’ll report on that tomorrow morning in our very letter, give a full review of that. So here’s what happened today that caused this rally. So the market opened up with slight gains. You know, it was like we were up a couple 250 points after yesterday. You know, kind of a bit of a relief for ally.

And then here, then here came the buyers. And then two hours later like midday we got a press release from JP Morgan people that were at a private JP Morgan event with Treasury Secretary Scott Besant who in essence said this was the quote that mattered most. Besson sees de escalation with China because it’s a situation that is unsustainable. So this is the second leak, this is the second front running. This is the second insider trading event that we’ve had in this administration, just that we know of. The first was after, before Trump announced the pause in the terrorists, if you remember that. And we had the third best day we’ve had since World War II. And we find out later that all of the Trump’s will say his inner circle and anyone they told they knew of this before.

So there were millions if not maybe a total of billions in Profits from the insiders that knew this. That should have been it. That should not have happened. Again after that big uproar around this as there should have been. It doesn’t matter if you’re Democrat or Republican, wrong is wrong. That’s wrong. And then it happened again last night with Bessant. What is Scott Besant doing speaking at a private JP Morgan eventually giving them inside information about trade policy, especially with China, which is really what this is all about.

[00:05:07]:
That is frankly, it’s a fire of offense. That won’t happen of course, but both parties have moved on from that. Those don’t kid ourselves here, but this is like in your face, like a middle finger in your face from those that are inside the elites now getting provable inside information well before the public finds out about it just should not have happened. But there are two other points with this as well. Bessant says de escalation with China is unsustainable. We’re going to have de escalation because the situation is unsustainable. Oh, no joke. You mean the situation that you created with a series of really reckless policy errors.

Oh, you’re saying that seems unsustainable. Well, a lot of us been trying to tell you that for a long time. The market’s been trying to tell you with $11 trillion in losses that we had in a, in a, in a, in inside of a one month time frame. So now, now they’re admitting it. I think this is a wake up call. This looks to me like it’s a wake up call from inside the administration. I believe that this tells us that they know they’re in trouble, the economy’s in trouble and either they get these trade deals done and get back to some, some semblance of normalcy in the economy, or this economy is in real trouble, falling off a cliff. We are seeing reports and we’re hearing it here as well.

Right. We get two or three emails a day from you. We got one last night that I shared this morning in a letter from a longtime member. Great guy. NR is his initial and he just shared. It was, I shared just part of the email this morning. But it’s a long, just kind of a painful email. You could see the pain that NR was going through just having to write this and send it to me about a company that he started.

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He’s a founder of, you know, $35 million revenue company, has a lot of business with Amazon and what they’re going through and the confusion and the pain that they’ve had to Go through. We’re seeing reports after report after report from, from, from decent sized employers around the country saying we’re, we’re already laying people off, we’ve frozen hiring, we’re laying people off and we, we are at a standstill, right? We, we’re like, it’s, it’s like, it’s like paralysis. Okay? We’re seeing these kind of quotes over and over again, folks. We, we’re in trouble here. This economy is in real trouble. And it wasn’t great to begin with coming out of four years of Biden with the level of debt that we have to then play chicken with the global economy and certainly play chicken with the American people and their livelihoods. That is what is happening here. I know we all want trade and tariff to be more fair.

We all want that. But as we said from day one, this has been about execution and communication and it’s just been horribly bad. I don’t know if it could have been any worse. It’s almost like they did this purposefully. Now, if you remember the plan Demic, it’s called planned dimmock for a reason. I can’t help but go back and go, this seems so horrible that it must be purposeful because I just don’t, I don’t believe that Trump could do something that’s just this bad by accident or anyway, I think you get what I’m saying. But anyway, maybe Bessant’s message today is, look, they understand that they’ve got to get these things done. Apparently they have a lot of trade deals that they believe are close to being done.

Although Bessant did say, by the way, and I didn’t see this talked about in the media in that article, Besant said, direct quote, Bessant said, we think we can get something done temporarily. I’m paraphrasing with China and a full trade deal in two or three years. Now, I had not heard that before. So if we’re going to be embroiled in a serious trade war with China for two or three years, folks, without the production capabilities, manufacturing in this country to allow businesses to continue to run, operate and grow their business again, we’re in trouble. And I hope everyone understands this. This is not me being anti Trump, this is me telling you what I’m saying. This is me looking at chart after chart, all the technicals, the death crosses that we’re seeing, right? The leaders, semis leading lower every day, housing stocks leading lower every day. Some of these new housing charts, data for home purchases are downright scary.

[00:09:32]:
This Reminds me, this reminds me of 2007. I was on stages all over the world a lot of, you know, for, for over a year warning people about what was coming in the housing market in the US as mortgage companies began to fall, as, as the housing stocks begin to collapse like they are now. Right. And I don’t know that we’re ever going to have that. I don’t think we will. Okay. I’m very confident we won’t frankly because 40% of Americans own their home without a mortgage. Again, the, the fundamentals of the housing industry are incredibly strong.

Frankly. If you’re going to have this big of economic mess up, which is what this is, this is probably a decent time to have it because the consumer of the first America is in, was in very good shape. That’s, that’s, that’s declining. Corporate America has had never been in better shape going into this, right. With the debt to a market cap at, at 50 year lows and you know, tons of cash on hand, et cetera. So it’s not a fait accompli that we have a recession. But as you can tell from our, our, our, our, we’re moving in that direction. The market, even though the action today was very good, the market is clearly telling us.

And by the way, don’t get bear market rallies confused with the return of a bull market. Okay, look, I’ll be the first person to tell you when that bull market returns, but this is far from that. These are, these are very, have the very much the personality characteristics of bear market rallies. And again, hopefully that can change. Get all these trade deals done, we get back on track. The concern now is that enough damage has been done and will continue to be done that by the time they get these done. How many months is it going to take to get these things done? I can’t imagine that they’re easy if they were, they’ve been done before. We apparently can’t scare other countries into doing it, but we tried that.

[00:11:21]:
That’s not working so far. You know, trade delegations are coming and leaving. Japan did that and said we don’t, they didn’t even know what they want talking about the U.S. so again, the point being they got to get their shit together, all right? They’ve got to stop this insider trading bullshit. Okay? This is, this is criminal. I mean this is not something that’s just wrong. This is, this is a criminal act. It’s not supposed to happen.

And you certainly wouldn’t think it would happen with the Republican that ran on being the Good guys. And so this is, this is why is the cabinet, any cabinet secretary ever speaking to a group privately when they have a vested interest in policy that’s close to the public or the media? Right. This is just wrong. And so I think that I saw enough coverage of today. I know there are a lot of people that feel the same way that I do. And again, right is right and wrong is wrong and this is just wrong. And again I’m a big believer that you can support a canned nominee or a president in this case and still differ on policy. But now this is starting to bleed over to something else like what is really going on here.

So anyway that’s our take today. But again the eternals day were fantastic. Let’s get to that now today NYSE 89% of volume day. NASDAQ up 81% volume day. That’s two out of five days now we’ve had very good readings. Not the 90% level. We need to have a breadth thrust are still very good. Internals advanced decline 10 to 1.

[00:12:46]:
Upside 10 to 1. Advanced decline on NYSE NASDAQ 4 to 1 again very good readings. New 52. Kai’s lows came in right at even. Okay, so not much there in our commodity watch today we had. Oh sector watch, sorry again also very good. All 11 sectors finished high on the day. We had eight of 11 sectors that finished up better than 2%.

So it’s very broad based rally today led by financials, consumer discretionary communication services technology was down the list a little bit. So it’s not leading. We’d rather see that but we’re not going to complain with these broad based moves higher that we saw today in our commodity watch. Again we’ve been telling you now for what four or five days. Gold is extremely robot. Gold is extremely robot. Well today when the positive news came out of a trade policy it sucks some of the life out of gold. So we did finish down $33 an ounce today.

But overnight gold hit 3500 for the first time right now trading at 33.92 again down 33 on the day. Silver also down but just slightly down through three pennies announced at 32 49. Copper today I believe. Copper yeah. 4.84 dollars 84 cents a pound up two and a half percent. So getting back to five bucks not which would mean not that all that far away from all time highs. And again that’s very good to see for the global economy. Crude oil today up 1.8%.

[00:14:11]:
Kind of a inverse of yesterday right now trading at 6354 a barrel. And finally they bitcoin. I wrote this up this morning. I’ll just share it with you briefly here. Look, we get so many questions from, from our subscribers and we just thank you for doing. We love getting them. If I owe you an email that I haven’t replied to yet and it’s important, please resend it. Not going to hurt my feelings at all.

I’m trying to get everything replied to within a day or two. But please don’t hesitate to send it again and send me anything you’ve got. But I wrote this morning, bitcoin. Okay, look, most of you know we’re long term bitcoin bulls early on. Uh, we’ve done very well in bitcoin. Profits of over 2200% booked in just the last four years in Bitcoin. Two trades and now we are out of bitcoin. We sold it at 82 and change.

Right now it’s 91 and change. So it’s rallied. What is that? 8, 8, 8, 8 and a half percent more? We sold. But look, nothing’s changed. We love bitcoin, but it has rallied back to just above the 200 day moving average. @ the same time, it’s hitting extreme overbought levels on our shortest term momentum oscillator. That’s stochastics. And so if it’s going to reverse with the market, which we still believe a retest of the lows is likely, I think it almost doesn’t matter at this point what, what happens with trade policy because again, that’s the damage that’s been done here.

[00:15:31]:
It’s it. The, the, the markets are telling us that it’s likely a recession is coming. And anytime you have an economy this highly leveraged, you just don’t want to mess with that. Especially when you don’t have a Federal Reserve that’s moving in lockstep with you. Clearly there is an ego situation or a battle with get Trump and the Federal Reserve. That’s the cartel, folks. That’s the banking cartel. Those are the one guys you don’t mess with.

And Trump continues to mess with them. So he’s bringing this on himself. Again, there’s no allegiance there, no loyalty there between these two guys. And you need, especially in times of turmoil like this, you need the Fed and the President of the country, you need them working together. They’re just not. So again, Trump is hurting himself here. I know that’s not how he operates, but that is in effect what’s happening here. But again, 10 year yields now falling, by the way, that’s also going to be good for tech and for bitcoin eventually and gold.

But bitcoin has clearly decoupled from technology stocks. That’s the key takeaway for me from all of this. This is very different because in the past you could overlay a bitcoin chart with the chart of NASDAQ 100 and it’s pretty much looking at the same chart. That’s not the case clearly now. So this is a personality, it’s a pattern change and I think it’s a big one. Yes, we’ll be back in bitcoin, but if we’re going to get a retest, we’re going to get one more liquidity, you know, again, a double bottom, if you will. If the bottom holds, assuming that happens, if bitcoin holds up, then, then we will absolutely be back in it. Yes, we have some longer term concerns about quantum computing and hacking, but based on my research, I think that’s a, I want to say 10 years, but I am seeing some folks saying that’s a five to a seven year issue.

[00:17:19]:
Again, the quantum, the speech is not there, the power is not there yet. I don’t have all the computer lingo to, to tell you exactly why that is. I just know that I’m seeing five to 10 years with the possibility that bitcoin can be hacked. And of course, if that happens, it’s not just bitcoin’s in trouble, folks, it’s the entire system. We’re so interconnected. Now. If bitcoin were ever to be hacked, I would expect the next day for the Dow Jones SB500 be down 30%. Right? Because that’s how much money is in this group.

That’s the shock it would be to the system. And it’s the biggest concern that every crypto expert has. Every bitcoin expert has is, can it be hacked and will it be hacked? That is, there’s not a close second. That is the biggest concern. I put it out there just because we’re big believers in diversification, right? Forever. I had people beat me up going, why are you in gold, man? You see a bitcoin, I’m like, whoa, whoa. I own bitcoin and I own gold too. Why can’t you own both? They’re completely different assets.

They really don’t. I know one, they say digital gold, one’s regular gold, but I don’t, I’ve never seen it that way. Right. I see one is just the best supply demand story of all time and then the only true currency on the planet is gold. And so I see them completely differently. And again I think diversification is so important because I know a lot of people. I don’t, I don’t know a lot of them personally. I just know from, from reading articles and seeing people they’re all in, everything they have is in bitcoin.

[00:18:48]:
I just think that’s, I think that it’s your money. Do what you want to. Congratulations. Go for the home run. Go for the grand slam. You know it’s your money again, go for it. I wish you well. But again from diversification and just being kind of a smart investor point of view, that rarely works out over the long run.

What else today? You know what I’m going to run here so we get ready for this Tesla conference call and folks I hope you had a great day, an even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.