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VRA Investing Podcast: Market Soars on Friendly Inflation Data. Bull Market Signals – Kip Herriage – January 15, 2025

In today's episode, Kip breaks down an impressive day of stock market action. Kip unpacks the latest inflation data and it's implications for the market and the Federal Reserve going forward. Kip emphasizes the exciting prospects ...

Posted On January 15, 20251532
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About This Episode

In today's episode, Kip breaks down an impressive day of stock market action. Kip unpacks the latest inflation data and it's implications for the market and the Federal Reserve going forward. Kip emphasizes the exciting prospects of the innovation revolution and the Trump Economic Miracle 2.0, explaining how these macro trends are shaping an extraordinary time for investors and entrepreneurs alike. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Transcript

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Wednesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the Daily VRA Investing podcast. Hope you had a great day today. If you’re long and strong, you had a very good day today. Isn’t it nice when playing comes together? Isn’t it great when a plan comes together? And we have had a plan and it is coming together? Listen, we got caught off guard by the fallout from the J. Powell press conference. We did.

Didn’t see it coming. It shouldn’t have happened. We saw evidence of this today, did we not, with the inflation data? It was. Jay Powell is so full of shit. He is just completely full of shit. This guy is without question the worst Fed chair of our times.

[00:00:42]:
He’s now in charge of what’s going to be the fifth, maybe six. I have to go back and count these policy errors or mistakes that they’ve made. This is at least the fifth major policy. I say major. I don’t think this one’s gonna be that major, but it’s at least the fifth policy mistake that Jay Powell has made since he got the job in 2018. Look, we’ve been telling you that the inflation story is rear view mirror. It is not a concern. And it’s not going to be a concern.

Totally not with Trump in charge. Tyler covered this in such great detail and he has been all over it. So I hope you’re appreciating Tyler’s podcast, and I know you are. We hear your feedback. Thank you for that, because my son is nailing his podcast, because he’s. This is what he does. He likes to do deep dives and to really understand the issue. And his podcast yesterday exactly described what has been happening here.

We’ve been telling you that, again, inflation is not a concern. But what did Jay Powell say at his presser following the Fed meeting in. In. In December, December 18? What did he say? Ah, yeah. Oh, inflation is not where we want it to be yet. Kind of. Kind of rear in his head again. No, it was never about inflation.

[00:01:54]:
It was always about Trump. It was either get. Get Trump setting the stage for controlling Trump, controlling him politically. This is what happened in 2018. Remember, the Fed raised rates seven straight times into the worst Christmas that we’ve ever seen. Even worse than the Great Depression. Horrible. And that was a bad one, by the way.

But then he did it again last month, and it wasn’t about inflation. It was about controlling Trump. And they’re doing it by hiking rates now, even they got their head handed to them today. Bond yields plummeted today. Right, what are we down 13, 14 basis points today on the 10 year, by the way, the Vix today was down 13%, but the fear ingredient index is at 29. Still in almost inconstrue fear mode. What is going on here? Right? This kind of sentiment is just a huge buy signal. We said it before, we say it again.

When we get to the stage of this bull market, we’ll get there. But I think at this rate it’s going to be 20, 27, 2028. This is how crazy it is. This is such an important point to understand. Contrarians. Get this, deep down, most people struggle with this. It doesn’t compute. Look, I’m like that when it comes to mechanical things.

[00:03:03]:
I can’t work in a car. I just can’t. I don’t really have an interest. I just can’t do it. And I’m jealous of people that can. But when it comes to understanding what it really means to be a contrarian, and by the way, in the investing markets, I don’t know there’s anything much more powerful than understanding context, contrarian themes and understanding just how a market works. You know, being on the right side of the market, there’s so many people that seem to be confused by this. Why would you want to fight? Why would you want to be bearish? Right now we, we’ve had a massive two year bull market, S500, up 20 better than 20% for two straight years.

We’re now just going to the third year. As Tyler’s been telling you, the average bull market lasts seven, eight years. We think this is going to be much longer. But knowing that, why would you be bearish here now, short term bearish is very different from being medium to long term bearish. So I’ll qualify that. There are times that we’re short term bearish, right, and we’re selling positions and we, we might, we might be doing that here pretty soon. Meaning we think this move in the four fourth quarter earnings is going to be a very good move higher. And so that’ll give us an opportunity with our ETF strategy to start taking some more profits.

But that, that, that doesn’t mean we’re bearish necessarily. That’s a trading approach using momentum oscillators and you know, our VRA investing system for overbought oversold analysis. Right. But I don’t know why anyone would be long term bearish here. I do not get that. Why would you fight the trend? Don’t fight the tape, don’t fight the Fed. Now, right now the Fed is still in cut in rate cutting mode, aren’t they? They’ve, I know the, the, the conjecture by the perma bears and others have been, oh, but the Fed’s done cutting rates now. They’re going to start hiking.

[00:04:45]:
No, they are not. They will continue to cut rates. Okay. There are some things we can tell you with absolute certainty. That is one of those things. Unless, unless we get to GDP growth real quick of 8 to 10 to 12% or something or better than 5% at least, you know, then honestly, I wouldn’t care and no one should. Again, as a reminder, during the dot com melt up, this is the most similar time frame that we’re in now to that I remember it well, had a blast from 95 to 2000, let me tell you, that made a lot of money for myself, my clients and it was a five year party. It took us a couple of years to figure out what’s happening and then the last three years were a blast.

But during that bull market, the best ever in the United States, the 10 year yield averaged 6.1%, folks. We’re at 4.65% today. Right. So. And there were spikes over 7% in the dot com melt up. So the market didn’t care about higher rates now and it wouldn’t care here. The point being the interest rate story and certainly the inflation story are completely secondhand to what’s happening with this market, which is the innovation revolution. The combination of the innovation revolution.

We’re going to see technological change like we’ve never seen before, ever. You already starting to see it now? It’s so exciting. Tesla, by the way, has its control of a lot of these, but combined innovation revolution with the Trump Economic Miracle 2.0. I think if people really, if you understand those two macro stories, those are our primary trend stories, then everything else is secondary. Everything else is a counter trend story. And this is why we’ve been so bullish and we said the smartest, smart new strategies is to buy the dip. Well, we think it just happened again. Look, it’s just one big update, okay? It doesn’t mean, you know, it doesn’t mean that all our concerns are done with.

[00:06:41]:
But as we said yesterday, as Tyler said yesterday, you know, bull markets love climbing a wall of worry. They just do. Don’t fight the tape. How many, how many of these euphemisms can I give you? Don’t fight the tape. Don’t fight the Fed. Bull markets love climbing A wall of worry. But these are true. They’ve lasted for a long time because they are true and they do work.

So we got, you know, everything in our favor. If you’re bullish right now, this is a phenomenal setup. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. This is the most bullish I’ve ever been in my career. And I really don’t think there is a close second. The only time I would say this is a. For a different story. But I went extraordinarily bullish In March of 2009.

Exact I called. It’s gonna sound pat myself on the back, maybe I am. But I called the bottom of the financial crisis lows on March 9, 2009, within five minutes of it. And I won’t go through the reasons for it, but it had to do with the banking crisis being over. And so for like a six, eight month period, the markets were just pretty much parabolic as fear still was everywhere. But I called the bottom. We crushed the next six to nine months. It was one of the best years we had for the vra, you know, portfolio and for our returns.

[00:08:01]:
I think that year we wound up being up, I think 180%, something like that. And. But the point being, this is the most bullish that I’ve ever been. And I think there’s a reason, you know, everything I believe, everything I think I do think most things happen for a reason. I also think what we think about, we bring about. I know that to be true. I’ve seen the evidence of that my life. If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, maybe you’re new here.

High recommendation is to read Manifest your Destiny by Dr. Wayne Dyer. I read it every morning. All of my morning affirmations come from that book. And the approach there is a great combination of spiritual God and just knowing that again, what you think about, you bring about. But he explains it in such a unique way. I highly could not recommend Manifest your Destiny by Dr. Wayne Dyer.

More. And again, rest in peace, Dr. Dyer. You were an amazing man. But again, a very bullish here. I think we’ve got everything lined up. And again I can tell you this, this contrarian theme when, when, when everybody turns. Remember just, just in the first week of December, right? We, we were at either greed or extreme greed on the Fear and Greed Index and pretty much the same thing in AI and all these sentiment surveys.

[00:09:14]:
And then all of a sudden J. PAL strikes and all of a sudden now all those, all, everybody that had CAPITULATED and became bullish. They flipped. You’ve seen it, right? Everybody is on tv. And I really don’t watch much financial tv but I watch Bloomberg early in the morning just to get a sense of what’s happening out there. And again, it’s great research as a contrarian. And they’ve all gone from being bullish, their morning guest to all being bearish. Now that won’t be the case.

Tomorrow morning they’re all going to claim that they bought the dip, right? Because there are a lot of scumbags and frauds that are on television and throughout the financial world. But the point being when, when sentiment flips that quickly on a less than 5% correction, which is a pause really in the S500 dropped just right at 5% from the December highs. When people flip that quickly, that is a, that is a telltale sign that this is a temporary pullback. Temporary. But again we’ll get to the point probably in, at this rate, 2, 3, 4 years where people will remain bullish. We’ll have a 5% shakeout and everybody will say be saying buy. They’ll be saying what we’ve been saying over the last two years, Buy. The dip.

That day will come. But we are light years from that now. And I think that’s an important, really, really important point to remember. It should give you confidence to buy the dip. And again, we want to stay focused on the primary trend, not these counter trend moves. So as we, I put out a letter this afternoon explaining our approach to beating the markets, what we do for our subscribers and clients. And it’s pretty simple. We recommend and research and recommend growth stocks and then we trade ETFs.

That is more of a trading approach. Our growth stock approach is a long term approach with our VRA10 baggers and other growth stock recommendations. We never recommend more than about 13 to 15 positions at a time. So you can be properly diversified without being overly diversified. Because that’s a portfolio killer. You know, like I do. If you ever had a portfolio of 40, 50 stocks, it’s impossible to beat the markets. And that’s why so many people don’t.

[00:11:20]:
90 of money managers do not beat the market every year. This is something, this is something that should be in the, in, in the, in the disclosure documentation for all of Wall Street. Because it’s the group thing. It’s the group think, it’s their over diversification and it is the, the, the propaganda that they fall for, right? Not, not understanding what it means to be a contrarian and know what to look for. So that’s our approach to beating the markets again with the stock recommendations and our ETFs. As I said today, Tyler and I made the decision. We are going to get more aggressive in our trading approach. With ets we use both basic, you know, non leveraged and leveraged ETFs.

Leverage ETFs, obviously for the added juice. Right. And that makes the trading approach much more attractive when you have a leveraged etf if you can time it right. And that’s what we’ve demonstrated over a long time now that we’ve done, I think our gains in the last decade from just our ETF strategy, like 2300% not including our other gains. And outside of that, we love gold and so does it go only and bitcoin of course. So that’s our approach. But we are going to be more aggressive in trading these. I think we’ll be taking some profits tomorrow in our energy stock etf and we only get back into the, into that habit of really being, having that more of a trading approach.

And I just, my concern is I don’t want anyone to think that that means we don’t like the market. You’re taking profits. Well, I thought you said the market was gonna keep going up. Well, you know, again it’s a little bifurcated approach, but that’s what we’re gonna be doing for all of our bureau subscribers and members here. Just trying to give you a heads up there. But again, extremely bullish buybacks are an opportunity. And this morning, you know, we got this, the CPI data again. We did kind of the table that inflation is not a concern and we’re telling you why that’s the case.

Tyler covered again yesterday. We barely hear any of this in the mainstream media and it’s just, I think it’s a, I think it’s almost a financial crime not to report this because this is why we were calling bullshit on Jay Powell when he was talking about being concerned about inflation last month. No, the biggest lagging indicators of inflation are shelter, housing and insurance. Those are big, big time lagging indicators and they’re falling. Now those rates are falling, especially for shelter and housing. They’re going to continue to do that as more and more building takes place. Now there is a, look, we do have some, some, some tight spots. Look at LA County.

[00:13:51]:
God bless these poor people. But remember, nothing happening there is because of incompetence. This is, this is all planned, folks. Well, this is completely planned. They are with military style precision. They’re trying to destroy the state of California just like they’ve done in New York City. But you know, these people should be prosecuted for crimes against humanity. And it’s my hope that that will happen along with, you know, doing it for the pandemic criminals as well.

But again because of these, by the way, both shelter and housing and insurance, they make up like 40 to 50% of monthly cost per consumers. So this is significant, very substantial. And so when these costs start coming down, it’s going to have a dramatic impact on cpi. And PPI is one of the reasons we said that we think within two, three years we’re going to have pure deflation in America. Tyler covered this yesterday. China is exporting pure deflation. Interest rates at all time low. They, they now almost have deflation in their country.

That’s almost unheard of for China and Europe doing the same thing. I just saw this morning, it’s like the UK is about to slash rates again. Growth is horrible, right? They’re printing money, they’re exp. And then they’re going to be exporting their goods because of our exchange rate. So again that’s going to continue to put downward pressure on inflation. And then the other big thing, and this is really why we say we’ll have deflation in three years. It’s the innovation revolution, right? Innovation has a lot of great benefits. One of those big benefits is it brings costs down, it brings deflation for an economy.

Now the banks may not like that and they don’t, right? That’s the scariest word in the banking industry is deflation because you know, we have a debt based society, debt based economy and you start getting deflation, then that’s bad news for bonds, it’s bad news for debt, bad news, it’s bad news for bankers and so they don’t want that. But the point being this innovation revolution is going to be so powerful and we already start to see the, the end result of this. It’s so powerful that a cost for what we have to buy now, especially technology wise and other because this again, multi industry, this is not just a tech industry thing. That’s why I have a problem with people saying it’s the AI boom. No, no, this is not about AI. This is much, much deeper than that, right? This is complete. Again, one more time, innovation revolution, which is why we have nicknamed it that and I think it’s the most appropriate name. And so that’s going to bring costs down for a very long time and at the same time it gives extraordinary growth.

[00:16:24]:
Again, Cathie woods team has done great work here. You know, they’re saying we’re going to have GDP growth of 8 to 10% for maybe three decades. Okay. So, you know, I’m, I don’t know, ready to go there. But I have said for two decades that we’re going to have extraordinary time. It’s going to be extraordinary time to be alive, an extraordinary time to be an American, and extraordinary time to make a lot of money. Okay? Build businesses, make money with your investments, with your housing, you know, with, with, with whatever you choose to do. So that’s where we’re headed.

And for that reason alone, I’m okay with rates being higher than they should be because of the spectacular growth that’s headed our way. But otherwise, no, no, inflation is dead. Jay Powell knows this. This is about get Trump. They want to control Trump as they’ve done before with interest rate mechanisms. And they had their buddies on the side called bond market vigilantes. This happened to Bill Clinton. I remember watching it.

Well, Bill Clinton was famous for uttering. I’m just going to say it’s a quote. So I’m not, I’m not you dropping the F bomb. I am going to drop it, but I’m not. It’s not me saying it, it’s Bill Clinton saying it. Bill Clinton, famous quote. Who the fuck are these bond market vigilantes? He didn’t understand it at all, right? And they got control of them. And by the way, look at that end result.

Bill Clinton oversaw the best presidency over an eight year period that’s ever existed in the US when it comes to stock market returns and, you know, hitting on interns and some, you know, I’ll leave it there. But over Clinton’s eight years, that S&P of 100 average return was better than 26%. No one’s come close to that, especially over eight years. But one of the reasons that happened was the bond market. Digital entities showed Bill Clinton real quick that he couldn’t start blowing money on his favorite pet projects. That we’ve lived in very different times there. Bill Clinton had, We had a. We had positive financials for our government.

[00:18:23]:
Our government. I’m looking for the right words here. We produced a surplus and instead of running a negative, boy, I didn’t plan to talk about this. And now you can see why. Bottom line is we ran a surplus and we weren’t spending more than we were saving. From a US Government’s point of view, it didn’t last very long, but it did last and it helped propel the market so much higher. So that’s the reason we’ve been bullish when it comes to an inflation point of view. Yesterday we saw that in the ppi.

We saw it this morning again in the consumer price index which rose just 2.9% frankly. Again, remove inflation and shelter. We have deflation. We already have it. But the core CPI was really what came in weaker than expected. So it was good news. Markets were off the races right away. Futures turned on a dime.

They’re already a bit higher than they ramped higher. And this again, this entire setup is fantastic for stocks, bonds, precious metals, miners, obviously housing. We talked about bitcoin and every interest rate sensitive group. Again, Tyler covered this in detail yesterday. I believe this was another clear case of the Biden administration leaking economic data. How many times have they done this? They tell their buddies on Wall street and et cetera, central bankers, I’m sure do this as well. They know the data and they give them a heads up. Now it may only be a couple hours or a couple days, but they tell them.

And so we saw the market this week, didn’t we? We saw the market start to rally off a terrible open on Monday. Intraday market got hit yesterday pretty hard a couple times. Real seesaw, roller coaster action. Right. But then the smart money hour, which is most important hour trading, what did it do? Parabolic, close to the highs of the day. Okay. Happened Monday and Tuesday. And so that’s a tell.

[00:20:22]:
They leaked the CPI data and ppi. I’m absolutely certain of it. I know this because I’ve seen them do it so many times and this is what people are kind of keen off of. Right. That’s predictable. So now we have a pattern, repeating pattern as the Biden administration leaky data. So if you see that now, they won’t have much more to leak. Of course.

But we’ve been talking about this now for a long time when the markets start going in a certain direction in advance of important economic data that’s been leaked and then we’ve seen the fallout or the good news from it. And this time we got the good news. And again, I think the rallies this week were a tell along with you. We saw it in every interest sensitive group. We saw it in bonds rally, we saw it in precious metals and miners rally a bit. Housing rallied sharply. Bitcoin found a bottom 89,000, rallied sharply. So.

And small caps. Small caps, really very interest rate sensitive or small caps. Okay. And they’ve just been all over the map from a trading point of view. By the way, great buying opportunity here because know this, under President Trump, especially this version of President Trump, really like what I’m seeing. He’s very, very focused. He’s not all over the map. He’s not punching down and he’s locked in.

And I’ll tell you, and I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again, the reason for this is this man knows he has an opportunity to leave a lasting legacy. He truly wants to be known as one of the greatest, if not the greatest president of all time. That’s what he wants to do. To do that, he’s got to win a lot of people over. He has to build a legacy by being under control and being smart about what he says and does. I’m seeing that and I love it. Okay, keep it up, Mr. President.

47 to beast in the very near future. Five days, folks. Five days. And this insanity of the Biden administration is going to be kaput. Praise Jesus Christ for that. So again, the economic data is great. The inflation data is now, I think we’ve covered this ad nauseum. And again, the sentiment thing, I’ve just one more time to see these bulls flipping bearish just at the.

[00:22:34]:
They flipped. They flipped just at the lows. Okay? And again, we love seeing it because these perma bears are, they’re really, if I’d be honest about it, they’re social media, certainly. And in public they’re just, they think they’re smarter than everybody else. They have some data to work with and they love repeating that data or death’s going to kill us. I mean, they, they say the same things and then the worst case just never happens. A broken clock is right twice a day. So, yeah, they get calls, right, from time to time.

But I learned a long time ago you don’t want to be a perma. Anything. Perma, bull, perma bear. If you do that, all you’re going to do is lose money and hurt people that listen to you. Why would you want to do that? Right. One more point about the bonds. Again. We’ve been pounding the table on this fact.

10 year on a yield basis. The 10 year yield. I think we first wrote this up last Wednesday or Thursday. We’ve been sharing it now pretty much every day. 10 year yield on a yield basis. You know, technical analysis, wise hit, extreme, our most overbought designation, we call extreme overbought on steroids. This is when all of our minimum oscillators line up with the actual chart itself. And so everything across the board is trading at Extreme robot, hence extreme overbuttal steroids.

And when that happens, that’s when bad things happen. That’s when the chart reverses. That’s just, that’s just the way this works. And it’s something that we really adhere to because it just works. It works almost all the time. Now you get through stretches where you get more and more of a bot. That does happen. And you get through stretches where more and more of a soul.

[00:24:06]:
But the bottom line is, you know, that rubber band is stretching. You know, you’re getting very close to a turn. And so when we start seeing it, that’s when we started alerting people. Get ready. I will tell you straight up. I know we have a lot of subscribers and clients that once we alert to something, that stream of a bot, they’re gone. They’re gone. They don’t wait, they don’t wait for us to try to get a few more percent gains out of it.

They’re gone. I have no problem with that, frankly. If you’re a trend follower, a trend trader, as we are, you know, you want to go with the trend, don’t fight the primary trend. Then your goal really is to capture the 80%, to leave 10% on each side for the bulls and bears to profit from. You want to get that middle 80%. That’s where the good stuff is. And so that’s again, that’s, that’s kind of what we’re going to be doing with our ETH ETF trading approach going forward. But again, this is just textbook 10 year yields in extreme bottle steroids.

And now look what happened with the PPI data and CPI data. 10 year now has fallen from 4.8% to 4.65% again down 14 basis points today. We think that continues. Our Target for the 10 year is below 4% by year end. Wouldn’t surprise me. It was 3 1/2% again as Tyler coveted again yesterday. He’s been nailing this stuff. You know, all of these Wall street economists, right? And these Wall street strategists, they’re all, and especially the folks on tv.

Well, it’s pretty clear, you know, that Trump’s approach with the tariffs is going to be inflationary. Everyone’s talking about it. Yeah, that’s the group think you’ve got to avoid. That’s the propaganda that kills you. No, just because everybody’s saying something doesn’t mean it’s true. It almost always means it’s not true. By the way, again, Tyler said yesterday Trump has not even released his strategy. There’s nothing at all about.

[00:25:53]:
We know he likes to use tariffs. Surprise, surprise, he did it the first term. But there’s no, there’s been no announcements about a specific approach. He does it as a carrot and stick. It’s a complete negotiating ploy and ability to use leverage. And it’s so intelligent. It’s already worked in Canada and Mexico and he’s not even president yet. Right.

And so it’s going to work throughout Europe and the rest of the world. It’s just brilliant that he does this. And no, it’s not going to be inflationary. It’s going to drive down costs. Trump’s objective is to make America a better place to live because your prices are falling, not rising tariffs. If they were right about it, he wouldn’t be doing it. So anyway, we think that it’s a great approach. Again, that was the Trump economic miracle in the first case.

Tax cuts, deregulation and use of terrorists. And he’s going to do it again. So very exciting time. Okay, this morning we got bank earnings, right? And right out of the gate, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Wells Fargo, blackrock, all five of these crushing their earnings today. Let me give you some final quotes here. Goldman Sachs up 6% on the day. I hadn’t even seen this. Right.

Haven’t checked these in the last hour and a half. I’ve been pretty busy. Goldman Sachs up 6, over 6.2%. City up 6 and a half percent. Holy cow, I did not know this. BlackRock up 3.6%. What did I say? JP Morgan, because that was lagging earlier. Now it finished up almost 2% on the day.

[00:27:21]:
Wells Fargo, WSA, 6 1/2%. What is that? Three of the largest banks, banking and financial institutions in America closed up more than 6% today. You think the inflation story is over? Yeah. You think the concerns about the economy are over? Yeah, because the right guy’s coming back. Right? This is, again, extraordinary time to be an optimist and a great time to be an investor, entrepreneur and just, bottom line, American. Okay? This is going to be a wonderful, a wonderful four years with extraordinary gains. I’ve already seen it. Okay.

I’ve already seen it. All right, what else today? So, way to go, banks. You know, I actually don’t own them. Don’t really have an interest in owning them because I just don’t. I don’t care for banks. I’m happy that they’re doing well and it looks like they’re breaking out, so why wouldn’t they continue doing well? It’s just not a group that we, we like to, we like to invest in for a lot of other reasons. It’s like, it’s like defense stocks. I have no interest in investing in defense stocks because of what they do.

I think there’s a karma thing with me and I feel really the same way about the big banks. I’ve been canceled by J.P. morgan, closed every account we have. We’ve been with them for forever, closed all our corporate and business accounts because of my big mouth. Okay. And what I say on stage about Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan, Warren Buffett and I guess I just never learned my lesson. But I keep doing it. But anyway, I just don’t have an interest in the banks and I think there’s a lot of assets there that just aren’t needed.

They’ve got a downside of these banks and maybe that’s why the banks are rallying. Maybe that’s coming. If so much property sitting there. They don’t need all these branches. Everything’s going on, you know, is becoming an online banking thing. You still need some but nothing like what they have and way too many employees as well. Maybe that’s why they’re moving. Maybe they’re going to start downsizing under a Trump 2.0.

[00:29:16]:
It would not surprise me. Matter of fact, I expect that it has to happen at some point. I expect that it will happen. So a great looking start to the start of the fourth quarter earnings again. This excitement of Trump 2.0 is building and again when a plan comes together, it’s pretty sweet. We started telling you several days ago that the markets were going to start front running Trump 2.0, the inauguration of 120. We told you that that’s what’s happening. Just everybody got bearish.

Fear and greed hit extreme greed fear, excuse me, extreme fear at the lows on Monday and still at 29. That’s just unbelievable to me that the people would be that bearish and that wrong. And I think in a very important, important turning point for the markets as the primary trend begins to kick back in again. If you’re not long, you’re wrong. I don’t mean to sound like a butthole but that’s the truth of it. If you’re not long the stock market, you’re on the wrong side. And this is going to be extraordinary time to do other things. We’ve been talking about one more thing I want to point out.

I covered this this morning. Our letter. Ed Dard Danny, we only follow a few people tell you the Truth, religiously, people, I really like reading their work. I trust it. We see things the same way and we talk about him here fairly often. Ed Hyman at Evercore, one of those guys best, probably the best economist on Wall street for five decades. So we follow him religiously. Rich Ross, also at Evercore, the technician, also very, very good and a few other people.

Ed Yardini is one of these people. And I will say, though he does waffle, I’m not a fan of that. Like you’ll say, oh, no, now there’s a 20% chance this happened, 70% chance, you know, and, but, but he gets really bullish and at the first time of market downdraft, he starts waffling. I don’t care for that. But that’s again, he’s his own man. But this, this last night he put out his latest update that was just extraordinary about the return of animal spirits. It’s already showing up in the Data for Trump 2.0. This is, this is pretty remarkable, the NFIB, which is the Small Business Optimism Survey.

[00:31:29]:
In this last night, we learned that small business owners are now the most optimistic that they’ve been at any point since October 2018. So what was Hap, who was president in 2018? Right. And by the way, that was just before the fourth quarter from hell. But that they, they were, they were very excited because of Trump and then Jay Powell and the Fed had to go and ruin it. And then the pandemic ruined it too when he got snookered on that thing. But again, Trump hasn’t even taken office yet. But as we’ve been telling you, as you no doubt know and hear, people are excited. That’s probably why the market fell off in December.

People got too excited and Jay Powell struck. Right. But now we’ve got a reset here, don’t we? We got a reset with the shakeout that we had. So this is extraordinary setup. Great time to be long. Very, you know, tech stocks, of course gonna lead the way. Semis will lead tech stocks as always. Love the semis here.

Got a big, big move high coming and semis in it for fourth quarter earnings. And most of the semis don’t report. I think we almost to get the first semi, big semi company report for chip company in I think three weeks, at least two weeks. But the banks report we got a little bit of a low after that. But they’ll start, and we’ll, we’ll start sharing those with you in our, in our letters here very soon. But this optimism is incredible from business owners because they’re going to, they, they’ve reflected, they, they have plans to hire more workers, expand their business operations and ways rages. This is what’s coming from small business owners. Very good sign for the economy, labor market, et cetera.

Now it might cause a little bit of angst as, as Yardini says with the bond market, but that’s going to be a passing thing. It just, the interest rate thing doesn’t, it just doesn’t matter. It only matters in short term dips and little bitty phases like that. Otherwise it does not matter. Okay, let’s take a look under the hood today. Again we first of all just what a great day for so many things. Tesla today. These are all things that we own.

[00:33:30]:
Tesla up seven and a half percent today. Thank you Tesla. Thank you Elon Musk. Soxel three time leverage ETF today up 7%. Housing, you know we just went long housing again. What was the last week or so? Three time leverage ETF now up almost 8% today as well. Bitcoin, you know back hit popped over a hundred thousand today just below right now994. But again Bitcoin’s been on a tear and interest rate sensitive groups were telling us this was coming.

Oh it’s small caps, small caps today. We’ll cover all that in a minute but we’re in the three time leveraged ETF small caps say up 6%. It’s a good day today again I think this is going to, I think we’re rallying into, into 120 folks. I think this front running of Trump will continue especially after the news today and yesterday on inflation. In our internals today a very very good report here for NYSE today was 5 to 1 positive for advanced decline. Very very good. Nasdaq better than 3 to 1 positive for advanced decline. Volume even better today up volume for NYC was 82.3%.

A very good report if we get back to back days of better than 80% of volume. That’s, that’s called a bullish thrust buy signal. So we’ll keep an eye on that for you tomorrow. Tyler will be covered tomorrow’s podcast and then the NY is going to be NASDAQ volume today 75.7% positive. Very good day. And we had more stocks hitting a 52 week high than 52 week low today in our sector. Watch today. Also excellent news here.

10 of 11 sectors finish higher on the day led to the upside by consumer discretionary up 3%. Communication services flash tech up 2.7%. Financials again up big today up 2 and a half percent. Tech up, that’s four major sectors up better than 2% today. Tech up 2.2%. And then to the downside today, consumer staples down a fraction of a percent. Not even, not even 1/10 of a percent. Those essentially all 11 sectors high on the day.

[00:35:33]:
And a commodity watch again. Gold and silver, love it when, when the rates are going lower. Pretty good correlation there. And that happened today. Gold today right now at 40 bucks announced at 2722. That puts us like, like 80 bucks, 85 bucks away from all time high. That’ll happen soon again. Our target for gold this year is see gold have gains of 20% again.

But the miners, that’s where the action is going to be in our opinion. Gains of 100% this year for GDX. The gold miners GF would not surprise me at all. I actually expect that’s going to happen again. Last year they’re only up 10%. This is a bounce back here. Watch what happens. Silver today up 1.2%, up 4.1%.

Really good action in silver up a buck and a quarter. Announced at 3160. Copper today also rallying up 1.2%. Great looking chart here. Copper. Great story by the way too at 4. $4.40 a pound. Crude oil today up again.

Crude oil up 3.6%. So they have $2.79 a barrel at 79.16. That’s great to see. And finally today, bitcoin again. I gave you the price a minute ago. Bitcoin right now, last trade 99,600, up 6%. Excuse me. Up 3% on the day essentially.

[00:36:48]:
And again also the chart looks great. Check out that chart. It’s, it’s oversold at a very interesting, interesting level. We are absolutely buying the dip in bitcoin whenever we get that opportunity. All right folks, that’s it for the day. Stay away from the group thing, stay away from the mainstream media propaganda and let’s make a lot of money together as this bull market rallies into January 20th and Trump 2.0. Thanks everybody for listening. Have a great day.

We’ll see you back here tomorrow after the close.

Podcast Newsletter

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Time Stamps

00:00 Rate Hikes Signal Buying Opportunity
04:45 Continued Rate Cuts Likely
09:42 "Predicting Market Sentiment Shift"
12:00 Leveraged ETF Trading Strategy Overview
15:31 Innovation Revolution: Deflation and Growth
17:41 Clinton's Market Success & Scandals
21:38 Presidential Legacy Ambitions
24:29 "Trend Following in ETH ETF"
28:27 Banks, Karma, and Cancelation
31:29 Small Business Optimism Peaks
32:25 Optimism in Q4 Earnings & Hiring
36:48 "Bitcoin Buy Dip Strategy"

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