Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. If you’re long the market as we are, not a great day, but we did see some very interesting positives today. We’ll cover.
We were hoping for a turnaround Tuesday, actually a pretty good setup for it. Didn’t get it, however, as Tyler just reminded me, actually not reminded. Just told me because I don’t track this. Both the mid cap and the equal weight, both the mid cap and equal weighted index today for the S&P 500 both finished green on the day. So they. There was a turnaround Tuesday in those names. There was also a turnaround Tuesday today in our fifo, many of our FIFO stocks. A first in, first out, the first.
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It’s very common to see this. Look, I think this is an important theme. We talked about this a little bit in our very letters. Don’t see a lot of people talking about this. I think it’s really important. Over the last number of years, instead of having just legitimate bear markets, right, where you go down 20%, we have something different and we have a market markets that go down 10 to 15% or even in this case, you know, 6%. Right, but the, but, but the majority of stocks go down much more than that. There’s like an internal bear market.
And again, it makes sense, right, because you have your, your largest companies that lead the way higher if they get hit. They just get hit a little bit. They’re so big that they, they mask, if you will, the damage being done beneath the surface. That’s the case now. Nasdaq, the average NASDAQ Stock is down 25% from its highs of two weeks ago, or I’m sorry, just, just from its recent highs, if you will. That’s a lot of damage. That’s a lot of damage. And that’s what you’re filling in a portfolio, is what we’re filling in our portfolio.
That’s the damage. Because the average stock is getting hit again. That’s been the theme of the market for several years. It’s good and bad. The bad part is we hear that, okay, the SPF 100 is only down 4 or 5%. Nasdaq’s only down 7, 8%. Right. You go, wait a minute.
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So am I really bad at what I do? Am I really bad at managing money? My average stock is down more than that. So I, I should just buy index funds? Well, that’s, that’s, that’s hold on just a second there because what happens on the reverse end of that, like what happened today, the stocks that get hit first get hit worse. These are momentum and growth names. They went up more than the market right. And now and they’re the first to top and then the, the ones hardest hit. We’ve seen that in pretty much every momentum name. It’s hard to find any momentum growth stock that is not being hit. Now some of the miners as dollar again reminded me Barrick Gold hit an all time high today.
GDX, the gold miner ETF today even as the market was down was up 8/10 of a percent. And we have some other things as well. Bitcoin again, first in, first out. Bitcoin was the very first to start getting hit. We saw it Bitcoin and bitcoin before anything else in the market started getting hit. Bitcoin topped at 126,000 October 4th I think it was and hit 89,600 overnight. Well it jumped today is up to 92,800 right now. So bitcoin, first in, first out.
What else? Small caps. If you take a look at iwm, the small cap etf, you’re going to see what we see. It’s been been hit by far the hardest of any other of our four indexes, right? S 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones and of course Rust 2000. And again like bitcoin, small cap started getting hit first and have been hit the hardest. Well guess what happened today? First in, first out today the Rust 2000 small caps were up 3/10 of a percent and they, they went green actually about midday. So again there were some in the internals. I’ll just go ahead and tell you now the internals were, Todd and I were talking throughout the day going what is going on with these internals? Because they are just coming back like a house on fire today. I’ll give you the closing numbers here.
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We had positive decline for nasdaq, positive advanced decline for nyse. Advancing volume for NASDAQ was positive. I didn’t, I haven’t run this, this math yet. One second. So 56 upside volume for NASDAQ and it was better for NYC. 60. So 56 and 60 again these are positive volume and these are positive advanced decline numbers. Okay.
And you know that’s, that’s in the face of a market that was lower. By now you may have seen that. Let’s cover it quickly. We had a very healthy intraday rally as the internals improved, but we lost it in Smart. We lost. The smart money hour was not good today. It was just the opposite. Yesterday smart money hour was very good today.
Really just the opposite. NASDAQ rallied all the way back from being down 350 points. Rallied all the way back to only down 80 points with about an hour, hour and a half left to go. Reversed course, went lower into the close, finishing down 275 points. That’s 1.2%. That was our leading index. To the downside again, Russ 2000 up 3. 10.
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Dow Jones down 1% and S P 500 down 8. 10 of a percent. For everybody wondering what our market leader did, the semis is probably not what you want to hear because again they also had a very good intraday rally but they lost steam into the close, finishing down 2.3%. Nvidia led the way lower. Of course they report tomorrow after the close. Nvidia closing down 3% back down to a 181A share. But again there were, there were clear positives today. And again, first in, first out.
This is the kind of action that you see when the market’s finding a bottom. And but this today was interesting about today. Also today did not have that liquidation feel. Do you know what I’m talking about? Where everything must go. Gold’s down, right? Every index is down. There’s just no, you can’t find strength, you can’t find a flight to safety trade. We saw a lot of that today. And again that’s, that’s what happens when a market’s finding a bottom.
And let’s be honest here, okay, the semis are down 10% from their highs. Okay. And this is all in the last two weeks. We know why shut down liquidity issues. There’s still almost $1 trillion. Matter of fact, it’s growing. The treasury general account is growing. Now once the shutdown ended, that was supposed to reverse.
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I’m going to tell you there is a, there is a, there is a, there’s a theory out there, conspiracy theory if you want to call it that, that there’s a civil war happening. It wouldn’t surprise me by the way, a civil war taking place between, between Trump and Treasury Secretary Secret Secretary Bezant and the Federal Reserve led by, you know, who won J. Powell. And the theory goes like this. They want to keep this money, meaning Trump and Bessant want to keep that $1 trillion locked up in the treasury general account to force liquidity issues in the market to course to force liquidity, liquidity dislocations that will force Powell and his, his team of, of Mary Money printers to take action at the next Fed meeting and cut rates on December 10th. That’s the theory. A lot of people are talking about it. You’re going to find it’s a, it’s probably the hottest theory, conspiracy theory out there right now with respect to this lack of liquidity in the market.
Liquidity drives everything. It is the basis of supply and demand. And let’s think this market has not had a liquidity problem. And why would that be? Let’s see, let me think of a couple, a couple of reasons why that would be into money supply. Both the US and global at all time highs, $22 trillion in the US alone, like $137 trillion globally. So this is a, not just a US centric advantage, this is a global advantage. Money is everywhere. If you’re wondering why we’re having trouble getting inflation, well, there you go.
That’s why inflation probably won’t drop much below 3% until the inflation, until the innovation revolution really starts kicking in and the disinflation, slash deflation from that innovation starts to pound prices lower on everything. Because that is what’s going to happen in this innovation revolution boom that is underway now. Again, we’re very early in this. So again, so much liquidity. We know that there’s $37 trillion sitting in home equity, but homeowners aren’t, they don’t feel comfortable accessing it. Banks actually aren’t really very keen on lending right now. Again, everyone’s having their own very short term liquidity issues. This is what’s driving markets lower.
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So if there’s truth to this rumor that there’s a civil war brewing between Trump and Bessant, we may not see that $1 trillion sitting in the treasury general account, which I can tell you, I was counting on. I can tell you that every smart money trader that I knew was counting on this as soon as the shutdown ended. That’s the bottom of the market here. We’re off to the races again. Hasn’t happened. So if that’s what’s happening, you know, I’ve seen two reports now that say this money won’t start coming out of the TGA Treasury General Account until the Fed cuts rates on December 10th. Well, that’s, that’s, that’s 30 days from now. Right? So you know, that’s not what we want to see.
We don’t, we don’t want to see continued liquidity issues short term as they are in the market. But as we like to Remind everybody. And I think for our new listeners here, this is so important. These short term issues, they happen in every bull market. We know this, right, but it’s part and parcel of every bull market. You’re going to get your shakeouts. It gets rid of the weak hands. They’re painful to go through, but they happen.
We get two or three of these every year. And so far this looks very orderly. There’s been nothing. It’s been a couple of liquidity scares here, a couple of liquidation looking days we’ve had. I have one yesterday where everything goes down, but it has not been widespread. We don’t want to see that happen. But this is looks again like a very run of the mill move lower. I shared a chart this morning.
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You know, we’re very big believers here in the Abdulloh street chart of the semi SPF 100. It’s hard to explain this, by the way, on an audio podcast. If Tyler was doing his podcast today, audio video podcast, he would show you the chart. But the bottom line is in this relative strength chart of the semis SPF 100. We’re seeing from the bottom of the market. April 7, right, Tariff Mania lows that the semis have led the market higher. They always lead in both directions. And in the relative strength chart we see this also has had a near perfect ascending bullish channel.
The semis have not broken that lower channel. This will be the third time if it hits the lower channel. Not even there yet. If it hits that lower channel line, It’ll be the third time that that’s happened since the April 7 lows. So again, part and parcel a run of the mill market pause or shakeout at this point. But that’s all short term stuff. Again, for our newer listeners, the most important point is that our big three remain intact. You know, again in the big bribe, we laid out our 5 megatrends.
I won’t go into those again today. They’ve all held up, by the way. But it, but, but the big three, the big three driving everything in this bull market and that will continue to drive this bull market are number one, the Trump economic miracle. Again, the economy may not feel strong right now. That’s because we’re going through some short term stuff. The shutdown really screwed things up. And again, we’re still working. We’re still really in a transition from the Biden, you know, economy.
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So that just takes time. But again, the one big beautiful bill, a lot of it’s already kicked in. Much more kicks in after January 1st. So the economy is going to continue to gain free steam. We’re seeing it, by the way, in all of the manufacturing data. The manufacturing data. We got more again today is incredibly strong. The New York Fed said, much stronger than they expected.
Well, that’s, that’s happening because of Trump’s tariff policy. That’s just the way it is. There might be some negatives tied to it. I know not everybody likes this terror policy, but you know, we’re in it. I mean he’s not changing his mind and I, you know, whether or not the Supreme Court rules against him on terror policy, they’ve got backups in place and they’ll be ready to put those in place too. So I think in one way or another, Trump’s tariff policies will remain in place. And I do think they’re going to be a big positive. More than anything, more than anything, they’re going to bring back U.S.
manufacturing. And that’s what the New York Fed said today. That is what’s happening. So the first, the big three, Trump economic miracle, number one. Number two, the innovation revolution. Folks, we are so early in this. Let me give you a case in point. Tyler likes to make this point.
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Just to give you an idea how people say we’re in a bubble. Oh, this is bigger than dot com, money wise. Maybe you know, it’s dollar spent. Of course it is. We’ve never seen anything like the hundreds of billions of dollars in capex that are being spent on these data centers in this AI boom. But here’s the point I think that more people should be aware of and pay attention to. If you think this is worse than dot com, how do you explain what I’m about to tell you in the dot com bull market? Remember, I worked through it, lived through it, took three companies public. It was, it was a five year whirlwind.
Okay. It took us about a year and a half to figure out what he was even. What is a dot com, what is even going on here? We thought it was a short term fad that we realized, no, no, this is big money being spent and we got to be long and strong. But during that five year melt up, and that’s what it was, it was punctuated by the way, by four corrections of more than 10% and one 32% bear market in NASDAQ. When that happened in 2000, excuse me, in 1998, right. Everybody said that’s it, it’s over, that’s it. And it just wasn’t the case. Right.
The final 18 months of the bull market featured the biggest move higher that NASDAQ had had in the entire five, five year run. But here’s the, here’s the key takeaway during that five year move higher, Nasdaq gained 575%. Right. So what is Nasdaq done from the October 13, 2022 lows? The beginning of this bull market, Nasdaq’s up a whole 110%. So just today to put it in perspective. Perspective always helps. I believe we’d have to see a gain of five times more than the move higher we’ve seen in nasdaq from the October 22 lows five times more. Just to catch up with and beware.com is so look again.
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We think the evidence is crystal clear, short term shakeout or not. Right. To the victor goes the spoils and people that are buying here again these FIFO names, first in, first out. Bitcoin, I’ll tell you that’s we featured on this today. I put out a, a letter about midday on this. Bitcoin I think is a great buy here. It’s first, it went down first. It’s bottom first.
Another that we like a lot here. We love the nuclear story, especially small modular nuclear nuclear reactors. This is the future today. SMR New Skill Power. It’s the name of the company symbols. SMR again, it’s got crushed. The whole group got trusted. It’s nothing wrong with this company, trust me.
The whole group including nuclear nuclear URA, the uranium ETF was down. It’s down 26% from its highs. Again this is of you know, three, four weeks ago. So the whole group’s been hit. So has SMR which was red hot. We recommended it 19 and change. It went to like 50. Okay.
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You know this was in like nine months. So it was a hell of a move. Well it’s been hit. It got hit all the way down to $20.70. But if you look at the chart again, it started going down first and now it looks to have bottomed. Today SMR was up 2.4% again. We think that’s a phenomenal buy here. We also like giving you a couple freebies today.
Galaxy Digital again just like Bitcoin. Galaxy’s been hit. But Galaxy is such a unique story. They’re really. We found there may be another one out there like it. I, we’ve not seen it. I haven’t found it. Galaxy Digital, they call themselves the Goldman Sachs of cryptocurrencies.
Yeah, they, they mine bitcoin. But that’s just one of about five or six major things they do. They, they’re, they’re the only major investment banker that caters to both corporate and, and individual entrepreneurs working in the space. Most of their work is done with, with, with big, you know, companies that are taking on a bitcoin or crypto strategy. And so they’re the leader in this space. They also again as do mining, they’re also doing AI data centers. They have their own that they’re working on another company with. So this is a very interesting story again like we just talked about with Galaxy Digital.
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Excuse me, with, with smr, New skill power. Galaxy Digital was red hot the stock before it got listed on NASDAQ. The stock was down at 7. When announced their NASDAQ listing, Galaxy caught fire and hit a 52 week high of 46 bucks a share. It was back down to 25 now, now but it was up over percent. So again market was down. These stocks were higher. First in, first out.
There’s a couple of good ones for you to look at in addition to bitcoin, Galaxy Digital and SMR. These are VRA10 baggers and I’m just giving you a couple of them there. Okay, you already know our, one of our other favorites, Tesla. If you’ve been on a podcast with this much at all, you know how much we love that story going forward. Tesla at 400, which is where it closed today. It’s a, it’s an absolute gift and I, I, I know that this will probably, this probably sounds strange to some people or it sounds maybe disingenuous or oh, maybe not helpful saying I don’t care where this, I hope it’s, I Hope it stays 4. I hope it goes to 380. I hope it goes, I really don’t want to see it go to 350.
Okay? Technical damage would be done there and we don’t want to see that. But the longer Tesla stays cheap, the more we can buy at this level. Now I know some people go, what do you, I’m fully extended Kip. I own all that I can. What do you mean to sell a kidney? What do you mean? Charles paid today. Put that out of my bitcoin. He goes, I love it here. It looks great.
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But I got to sell a kidney to buy more. And, and we all understand that, right? But I want to encourage everybody to think about ways to rebalance rejigger, as we say, you’re in Texas, rebalance your portfolio. Because we all have, all of us have the ability to do that. Doesn’t matter how much money you got in the market or how much what your net worth is because we all own things that we could sell and move into cheap stocks. You just have to be willing to do it. Not easy. I’m a very loyal long term investor. You know, I’ve owned gold from 353, 350 bucks.
I don’t, I don’t really want to sell Gold at 4000 and change again. Gold was up again today. First in, first out. Gold was down 10%. Remember that? I don’t really want to sell gold at all. But if it allows me to put money work in our 10 baggers, do I think gold is going to go up 10 times from here in the next, call it two to three to four years. No, as much as I love gold, I don’t think that’s going to happen. I think, I think gold is going to 15,000 on this move.
That’s our target. Right? That’s, that’s a phenomenal return from here. But that’s, that’s four, basically four times your money. Excuse me. Yeah, three and a half times your money from here. Well, these 10 baggers are going up more than that. Right? So again, I’m just making the point. And no, I’m not planning to sell gold to, to buy to, but you know, maybe, maybe it’s something I will do.
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Maybe it’s something I decided, you know, I’ll think better tonight and say, you know, maybe I should buy some more bitcoin here or maybe I should buy our new crypto recommendation which we’ve still yet to announce publicly. But the point being, you know, there are so many stocks that have been battered here and this is a phenomenal buying opportunity. So you can always find a way to rebalance your portfolio or rebalance your net worth. And it’s just, I think it’s very healthy to keep an open mind because there’s opportunities in the market every day and these kind of shakeouts give you a very unique opportunity to either initiate or add two positions. So again, keep an open mind, do due diligence and more. Most importantly, folks, do what’s right for you. It’s your money, it’s nobody else’s money. No one should tell you what to do except you and your internal risk reward parameter.
And, and you know what, what feels right for you, right? We all have that balancing act inside of us. It goes, you know, what if I take on more risk here, it doesn’t feel great. Or you know what, I’ve got too much of this. Maybe I own a Home I don’t need to own anymore, or I own too much gold or silver or what have you. Right? Maybe. Maybe you’re low. Maybe you’ve loaded the boat in one particular stock. And as much as you love that stock, you could probably stand to diversify a little bit.
So that’s the point I’m making here. I like to take a fresh look at my portfolio once a month. That’s what I do. Because we’re big believers in monthly dollar cost averaging. And if I’m going to rebalance, that’s when I do it. You know what I’ve got? Okay, this stock just went up 20%. I own too much of it now. I want to rebalance.
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I want to even out my portfolio, and I want to move into another name. But again, it’s a very personal thing. Don’t let anyone either tell you what to do or guilt you into something. And for Christ’s sake, let me just say this. If you are guilty of having a guilt complex, worrying about what happened yesterday to your portfolio or last month or last year or 10 years ago, can I just kind of just ease your mind a little bit? Guilt sucks. You can’t change. You can’t change something that happened even a second ago. All we’re doing is wasting our time and making ourselves feel worse about ourselves when we beat ourselves up about, maybe you didn’t make a financial mistake.
So what? Who doesn’t make that? Warren Buffett’s been buried. Occidental, I think people call him the best of all time. Certainly the best in modern times. Right? So. And he’s made his share of mistakes, a lot more than that. Remember I talked about this yesterday during the financial crisis. Buffett, who came up with a name for derivatives, weapons of mass financial destruction, had 40 over $40 billion in derivatives at one point. We only found that out because he was almost liquidated.
If the market had continued to fall, Warren Buffett could have lost everything because of the thing that he named weapons of mass financial destruction. Derivatives. Right. That’s called hypocrisy where I come from, but I haven’t seen him beating himself up about it. Have you? So again, let’s focus on the future. Let’s focus on making the best possible decision moving forward. And it’s shakeouts like this that give us that opportunity to make some really good moves in our portfolio. Because again, we believe, as you probably already know, that we are very early in this bull market for all the reasons we just covered.
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And we’re going to make a Lot of money going forward. I got to tell you again, gold today rallied. The miners rallied. Look at the charts of these. These charts are screaming buy me right now. And again we’ve have, we have 2 VRA 10 baggers in the portfolio. Vista Gold, Snow Line, I’m going to give them all away I guess today. Snowline Gold, Vista Gold, both were up today.
And again these are, these are phenomenal stocks to own because they’re, these are, they’re worth so much more than they’re trading at now. Junior miners have gotten a little hot but they have yet to do anything like what they’re going to do going forward. All right, let’s move on here, see if I missed anything. Yeah, I think that’s pretty much it. All right. We also, as Tyler reminded me, I’ve seen some very healthy rotational action again. That’s, that’s, that’s classic textbook bull market action. Have you seen what’s happening with healthcare, health care stocks? They’re going up.
Have you seen before this week? Have you seen what’s going on with bank stocks? By the BKX bank index was up today 14%. Bank stocks just hit all time highs a couple three days ago. Have you seen what’s happening in energy stocks? Up up again today. And again they’ve been going up as oil has been flatlining or going lower. Folks that’s a very positive relative strength outcome and it tells you that energy stocks are going higher again. We’re seeing these healthy rotations and yeah, right now there’s money leaking out of these red hot AI plays no doubt. But that again, that is part and parcel of what happens in a big bull market. All right, let’s take a look under the hood today.
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I kind of already covered it. Denied the internals again. The internals finished positive across the board for advanced decline in volume. Now we did have, we had more 52 week lows than you want to see. I will tell you that. We had about 550 new 52 week lows. We only had about 90, 52 week high. So we want to see that reverse.
But again that’s that. It’s hard to make sense of this indicator frankly because it’s cumulative throughout the day. So even if the market was to rally up a thousand points, this would still look bad. So I, I would expect that as the market finds its footing and moves higher again. Nvidia reports earnings smart at the close. Nvidia saved our bacon, has it not? Nvidia has saved this bull market’s bacon any number of quarters. There’s a lot of trepidation going into it. The other stocks have been hit and here comes Nvidia crushing another quarter.
That’s exactly what we think is going to happen tomorrow when the market closes. We’ll see what the guidance is going to be. They, they, I, I, I, I will be at. Matter of fact, I can’t find a single analyst that’s worth his weight that’s expecting Nvidia to do anything other than a crush. Now what’s their guidance going to be? That, that is an open question. I would expect it’s going to be if you know Jensen Wang and Nvidia, I would expect the guidance is going to be incredibly good because this man knows what would happen if it wasn’t good guidance. Okay. Not saying he would lie about it.
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Stranger things have happened. But again, we are early innings in this innovation revolution. So again, part and parcel of what happens in a bull market. That’s our view here. All right, and then sector watch today, pretty much what you’d expect here as well. We had actually you know what, refresh here much better than I, it was an hour ago. All right, we had seven sectors finish higher, five sectors finished lower. No real damage done either way.
Although consumer discretionary was down two and a half percent today. Tech again was down 1.7%. But again we had more sectors higher than lower. Let it be upside by again, energy, healthcare are both higher on the day in our commodity watch today. Gold today finished down seven bucks an ounce, again holding and basing above $4,000 an ounce. This should be the level from which the next big move, higher 5,000 and 6,000 etcetera takes place. For gold again we’ve been long term, I think we’ve been the biggest bulls on gold and silver on, on probably in all of America and very vocal about it over the years. Gold last trade, $4,067 an ounce goals going a lot higher.
So silver, I believe silver is going to a hundred dollars on this move. I would think by mid-2026, silver will be 100 bucks. When silver moves, it tends to move in a hurry. So maybe it happened a lot sooner than that. Today the silver was down 16 cents an ounce at $50.54 an ounce. Copper today down eight tenths of a percent at just below $5 a pound. Crude oil today up one and a quarter percent. That’s 75 cents a barrel at $60.61 a barrel.
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And final today again, Bitcoin rallying from 89.6 overnight to a last trade now 92,700 decent first in, first out rally for bitcoin today. Let’s see if we can keep that going. Again we have some positive action today. Good internals, a lot of first in, first out bullish action today and much did it. This market did not feel as heavy did it as as it as it has in past days. This was a bit of a personality change for the market over the last from what we’ve seen the last two weeks and again we’re looking for seasonally speaking this is the time to belong the market. One final point and I’m going to focus on this. Write this up in the morning for our very letter members.
There’s about to be a major move higher in small caps. This is the we’re in the best three month stretch now for the Russell 2000. Yeah you January effect, I’m sure you’ve heard of that. We’re entering that time frame now. Russ 2000 is also bouncing off its 100 day moving average. Again it’s the most oversold of all indexes just as it’s hitting extreme oversold on steroids. I should. It’s right there, right.
It’s definitely extreme oversold. We call it extreme oversold on steroids when all our momentum oscillators hit extreme oversold at the same time. And that’s kind of our what we’re known for. And small caps are so close. Three out of the four momentum oscillators are at extreme oversold levels. We’re just right there. But the combination of seasonality flipping positive for Russ 2000. I wasn’t surprised today.
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It was up today. We’re in that, we’re in that time frame now for seasonality again at the 100 day and hitting extreme oversold levels. This sets us up for a very good end of your rally in the small caps. But again we want to see the semis lead, we want to see the tech tech stocks follow semis. We think we’ve got a good looking action forming now to give us a, you know, a dependable low if you will in this group going forward. Right folks, that’s it for today. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.