In today’s episode, we’re unpacking a turbulent end to the week with the markets feeling the heat from geopolitical tensions, as an anticipated attack from Iran on Israel stirred uncertainty. Despite earnings kicks from JP Morgan and Citi, with the former banking giant unexpectedly sliding by 6.5%, the market struggled across the board. The tech-heavy Nasdaq and other indexes flinched as well, but we look forward to Q1 Earnings season.

So look back because the market is closed. Good Friday afternoon everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily bearing investing podcast. Hope you had a good day. Hope your week is good as well. Not a great day in the market. It’s not the way we want to finish our week this week, but there you have it, lots of geopolitical tension and turmoil with expected iranian attack against Israel. From following the news today, it’s a little insane.

It’s like a coordinate, globally coordinated attack that is being allowed from Iran against Israel. And everyone’s hope that guesses that it’s a measured attack. Of course, Iran is looking for revenge on an attack that Israel had apparently against the iranian consulate in Syria. It killed several important military personnel. So there you have it. Markets opened a little quiet this morning and then selling took place. We also had, by the way, Q one, earnings kicked off today with both the JP Morgan and Citi of being the big two. JP Morgan looked to a beat both bottom and top line and then the stock started getting hit.

[00:01:08]:
Here came the selling pressure. JP Morgan closing down six and a half percent. Remember, the stock is up 40% from the October low. So it has as a good run, but again giving up 6.5% today. And Citi also announcing earnings today. Fair, better today, also beat bottom and top line. Pretty decent comments from both CEO’s of the company. But city was down today at the close, also 1.7% on the day.

But again, all the talk is about Iran and military strike likely over the weekend. That’s how they’re talking about it. Markets didn’t like that very much. Markets are set really to go lower right from the start today, Dow Jones said he finished you down 475 points just off the lows, down 1.25%. SPF hundred harder than that, down 1.4%, roughly 1000 down 1.9%. And if you develop, if you’ve noticed the theme here, it’s because there is one Nasdaq also down today, down 1.6% of the day. And of course, importantly, we track the semis. Let me give you a fresh quote here.

Smh, the semi ETF today down 2.9%, leading the way lower. So as we notified our folks this morning in our very letter in our parabolic options program, we saw this big spike overnight in commodities, gold, silver, oil, copper. It, it was across the board. Sharp gains, look very bubblish, look very top like very toppy action. We stayed away from that. Didn’t, didn’t want to add to positions. A lot of people were saying okay, this is the melt up. Here it comes.

[00:02:42]:
So several investment firms on Wall street today come out and say our target is 3000 for gold, our targets 4000 for gold. And again, that’s very toppy kind of action. But I will tell you what we’re looking for. We’re looking for because by the dip has been the smart smooth or smart money strategies from the birth of this of bull market at the very lows in October of 2022 by the dip has been the smart money play. I think it could be a great setup come Monday if we get a little lower open, should be some great trade setup and a chance for us to add to our positions at that point in precious metals and miners and energy and in bitcoin. Today was pretty much everything must go sell. And that’s very again, indicative of the reason why geopolitical turmoil intention. The markets don’t like surprises, certainly over a long weekend.

And so that explains the action today. Should we get a little open on Monday? And assuming nothing too insane happens over the weekend, we will be taking aggressive action come Monday morning in our portfolio. So be ready for that. Okay, let’s take a look under the hood today. Eternals today. This is not good. Could be worse, but not good. Readings.

By the way, the fear greed index, it fell all the way back down. It’s down to a 46. Remember just a week and a half ago, it was in the mid seventies, now down to a 46. As Tyler just reminded me, that is one point away from being back to fear territory. So you can see how the personality of this market, the character of this market is developing when you go from extremely, extremely extreme greed sentiment, and then just all it takes is a little bit of weakness for whatever reason in the markets. And that bullish sentiment goes by the wayside. All those that turn the bulls flip back to being bears. I explain this to you to make this point.

[00:04:36]:
This is not how you find a top in a bull market. This is not the action and the personality, the characteristic of a top of the bull market. That would be when the markets take a hit. But the sentiment indexes, indicators do not flip. They remain bullish even as the market drops. We’ll get to that point. In this bull market, that always happens. Likely going to be long ways down the road before that happens.

As far as the internals today, we had. Again, this could have been worse. It could have been worse. Although I will tell you, there were a couple of negative readings here that do stand out. First, NYSE had 92.7% down volume today. Anything over a 90% day on the bullish side. Our bearish side does stand out. It does mean something.

So that’s notable. NYC, excuse me. Nasdaq, much better. Just 73% down. Volume day. The advance average decline. Nasdaq was only three to one negative. That’s not a problem at all.

[00:05:30]:
NYC was worse. Five to one negative, advanced decline there. And finally, new 52 guys lows came in with 112 stocks at a new 52 week high to 265 hitting new 52 week low again. That coming a lot worse than it was as well. But still negative readings across the board in our sector wise today. All eleven sectors finished lower in the day, led to the downside. No huge damage done either way here. But materials, for example, down 1.7%.

Tech then 1.6. A lot of, a lot of sectors down in that one and a quarter, one and a half percent range. Again, no winners today. All losers, all eleven sectors again, the action today really right from the jump was in commodities base gold spiked to $2,448 an ounce. And then that was the top. Here came the selling pressure, got down to a low of 23 50. Okay. Yeah, that’s a move of $100 an ounce in gold today.

High to low, finished right now trading back above that. Now, 23 61, down $11.60 on an ounce. And again, the old rumor, the old rumor, the old adage is when the bullets fly, stocks are by. When the bullets fly, stocks are above. I’ve seen it happen any number of times with either war or military action, when it’s expected, this kind of a thing. So, again, the theory here, the theory that we’re working under here is if something happens over the weekend, stocks will be a buy come Monday morning. Certainly if we get a sharply lower open, the same thing would apply to precious metals and miners. That’s the action we’ll be taking.

[00:07:07]:
We took no action today for that very reason. Silver today hit a high of 29 90. 29 90. And right now, right now, turning all the way down to just over $28 an ounce, folks, that’s essentially a $2 swing to the downside, the price of silver today. So you can see a lot of hot money has come into this group. Hot money tends to get, become cold money very quick. And that’s what happened day with that reversal. But again, setting up for some extraordinarily good buying opportunities, here we are.

Long term bulls in this group, as you probably know. This is, we believe, the bull market of bull markets and precious metals and miners. So these dips, especially from extreme overall reads, remember, I should have mentioned that earlier. Gold, silver, oil, copper, each of these had hit extreme overbought on steroids. That’s our most overbought reading. And if you’re an investing system, and we were there as of this morning. So again, that’s not the time to buy. Discipline tells you that’s the time to really either sell, which we’re not doing, or stand by the wayside, let the craziness unfold, and then look to take your position to the next level, which is what we’ll be doing.

So whether it’s Monday or Tuesday, we’ll know after the weekend. And again, we’ll see what this strike is. Assuming that it happens with Iran versus Israel, what will we live in, folks? What a world we live in. But silver, again, $2 reversal today right now is trading at 2808 an ounce and that’s down sixteen cents a day. Gold and silver have had an enormous, enormously big run, obviously. Again, hot money moving in and out right now. Thus was causing this volatility. Copper did finish high on the day, up just a fraction of a penny at 425 a pound.

[00:08:54]:
It also hit a high of 436 a pound. Again, copper has also been red hot. Doctor Copper telling you the global inflation trade is real. That is a positive sign for the global economy. Finally, of the day for commodities. Crude oil today did finish up fifty cents a barrel. Again, well off. The highs high was 87.63.

Right now it’s 85 52. Again, a lot of this is already buy the rumors, sell the news kind of thing starting to happen here. Anticipation that what happens over the weekend probably is not going to be as bad as some fear. And of course, that is what we hope for. Same thing happened in bitcoin. Again, everything had to go today. This is the kind of price action you see when it’s not either a liquidity event, which is this is not, or everything must go because again, of a geopolitical risk and it’s likely attack over the weekend. All of this action today, folks, know this.

All of this action today was tied to what could happen over the weekend. And that sets us up for some really good opportunities come Monday. You know, a fool in this money are soon parted. We want to be the smart money. We’re long this market. We, we’re long these hot groups have been for some time, commodities, precious metals, miners, energy stocks. These will continue to be the hot areas to be in, of course, tech as well. And so we’re going to wait for the craziness to wash itself out and then we’ll look, be looking there to pick up the scraps that people sell for much too low price.

[00:10:24]:
We’ll be buying those positions again if money sets up just right. We’ll be doing it then with a very early be ready Monday morning. What we will likely have alerts out if this plays out the way we think, have alerts out Monday morning for both VRA letter for our subscribers there and for parabolic options program where we’re looking to add one or two new positions there as well. Again, bitcoin. Now the same thing today. Let me get a last quote here. Last trade, 67,288 on the day had had his trade as high as over 71,000 today and then backed off again. Everything must go.

All right, folks, we’re going to keep this fairly short for you today. Listen, I hope you had a great week and even better weekend and we’ll see you back here again Monday after the close.