In today's episode, Tyler dives into the latest market action after a day where major indexes finished lower. He tackles what the VRA is calling a “pause that refreshes." Tyler breaks down some big earnings beats from two of the world's largest companies like Amazon and Apple, which are seeing explosive after-hours moves that could set up the next leg higher for tech. Tune in to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Thursday afternoon everyone. Tyler Herriage here with you for today’s VRA Investing podcast. Hope you all had a fantastic day out there today. If you’re watching the markets, maybe not quite so much, but we have hit all time high after all time high from our major indexes. And outside of our major indexes we are still seeing all time highs and individual names out there. So it certainly wasn’t all bad out there today. Not so great for our major indexes.

We’ll get into all of that in much more, much more here on today’s podcast. But first here quickly will be on the fantastic Wayne Allen Root show tonight, War Zone. So you can find that on Wayne Allen Roots X feed on the Gateway Pundit and it’ll be live streamed on Rumble as well. So I’ll be joining him at 6:30 Eastern Time. Hope that you can join us there as well. Looking forward to being on Wayne really is the absolute best at what he does. Great questions, he gets great guests on there as well. If you’re not a regular listener.

[00:01:28]:
I know we have a lot of regulars for Wayne Allen Root here at the VRA as well. So thank you as always for being here with us on our daily podcast as well. So yeah, greatly looking forward to being on there with him. I’ll touch on a few of the topics we’ll talk about lightly here today and we’ll break them down even further on what War Zone this evening. So I hope you can join us 6:30 Eastern Time, 5:30 Central again you can find it on Wayne’s X feed. You can find it on Rumble or go to gateway pundit.com it’ll be one of the top links there as well. So thank you Wayne for having me back on as always. I’m looking forward to it.

Then we’ve got a lot to dive in here today as well. More earnings reports as we’ve really entered the heart of of Q3 earnings, continuing to see growth and beats everywhere here and some, some, some impressive after hours action for some of these stocks as well. So we’ll break that down here a little bit in a second. And then as I said earlier, the market action where we did finish at the lows of the day today, you know, we’ve talked about this here at length. We’ve hit all time high after all time high. And I’ll break down what we’re seeing right now, what we’re seeing in the V investing system and why we’re looking at this as the pause that refreshes for our market. So you certainly won’t want to miss that. And of course we’ll break down our usual market internals.

[00:03:00]:
A bit of a sentiment that we’re seeing out there today, our sectors and VRA commodity watch. So without further ado, let’s jump right in here. I’m on a little bit of a time crunch before tonight’s show, so I do want to start it off here with earnings because we had some of the largest companies in the world and only getting larger that reported here today. So we’ll start with the first one. After the close today we had Amazon reporting Q3 earnings with some impressive, impressive beats there, beating on revenue. With over $180 billion in revenue for the quarter. They also saw a massive earnings per share beat 20. They beat expectations by 23% percent there.

At first the stock shot up in after hours, dipped a little bit and now I’m looking at it right now. It’s gone even more parabolic here. The stock now up 13% in after hours trading at $252 a share. If we open above 243 tomorrow, that will be an all time high for Amazon. So they’re going to open at an all time high and far beyond it at these current levels right now. Again over 13% higher in after hours right now at $253 a share. Next up here we did have Coinbase as well, also beating on revenue and earnings per share. Stock now up 2.8% in after hours trading similar to Amazon.

[00:04:34]:
Up initially down now back higher here again. But Apple was really one of the, you know, of course one of the bellwether stocks here for the Mag 7. But a lot of people were looking at this to see if is Apple is still, still a player. You know, I was in on the Charles Schwab network earlier this year to break down Apple and and while it’s not a VRA recommendation for us here, I’ve always been a fan of Apple. Growing up watching the Steve Job keynote speeches, I was mesmerized by watching him speak. I mean, what a showman this guy was and what a visionary he was at Apple. But Tim Cook is no Steve Jobs. He was a good steward of the company.

But on the innovation side has really left a lot to be desired. Now the new chips that they’ve rolled out are very impressive, the power behind them. I won’t break down the whole Apple story here today, but it’s absolutely still a very relevant company. Tough to say for anybody that it’s not when it has what a 4 trillion dollar market cap. Of course it’s a relevant company now. They did see slightly worse performance than expected in the greater China market after being the number one desktop computer earlier this year. You know that was a lot of people saw that as front running of some of the tariff impacts. We’ll see.

[00:05:54]:
You know one quarter here doesn’t make a new trend but the stock initially got hit on that news despite beating on revenue, despite beating on earnings per share. Well that did a quick 180 because now the stock is up over four and a half percent in after hours trading. Apple, let’s see. I believe that will be an all time high. Yes, I mean Apple hit an all time high today. So we’ll open even further into the all time high territory as it now continues to chase Nvidia as the world’s largest market cap company. So again, great earnings here. Adding on to it is already been an impressive earning season if you’re a regular listener.

You know going into Q3 we said it was going to be a good quarter. So very good to see. You know, unfortunately some of those all time highs like we saw from Apple didn’t spill over into the major indexes today as we finish lower and not what you want to see really. We finished at or near the lows of the day to day. So again not what you want to see from our markets. But if you’ve been here with us for a while, you know that we’re not perma bulls, we’re not perma bears. Right? We don’t like to be perma anything. You can’t tell the market what to do at the end of the day.

[00:07:14]:
So we’re going to take what the market gives us. But based off of our work, this bull market does have a whole lot higher to run. So we’re going to continue to look at this as a pause that refreshes. It’s just been an absolutely astounding run from the April lows, from the tariff mania lows that we got in April. We’ve hit all time high after all time high in all of our major indexes. And then of course we had Jay Powell speaking yesterday as he’s entered this lame duck era as the Federal Reserve chairman and really making some, I would call unnecessary comments yesterday. So maybe some market watchers are using his comments from yesterday as a bit of an excuse to take some some profits here. No problem.

We have hit heavily overbought readings. Not quite to our he, our extreme overbought on steroids level, which we call our highest distinction of overbought. But when you’re at overbought levels, as we’ve seen, that is when pauses tend to happen. And really, I think it had more to do with his comments about the December rate cut as Kip covered yesterday. You know, he just had to say that the December rate cut isn’t a foregone conclusion where he could have just stuck to the script, although that skip covered as well. That probably was his script, but he could have stuck to his usual script of oh, we’ll remain data dependent and everybody would have brushed it off. Right. I think that’s what he didn’t want.

[00:08:46]:
This guy loves the limelight, as we’ve seen from other Federal Reserve chairs before him. You know, Kip said it yesterday, weren’t really the cool kids at, at the lunch table. Now when they get in front of a camera, they feel like they have that opportunity. And this is what you get from people like that who have a bit of a chip on their shoulder. We know from the Project Veritas videos thanks to James o’, Keefe, I believe it was when he was with, at Project Veritas. It might have been his o’ Keefe Media Group, you know, release the videos talking about how much Jay Powell and his merry band of money printers do not like Donald Trump. So we look at this as probably likely a get Trump type of deal. Like we saw Jay Powell cutting rates ahead of the election last year, you know, trying to help the Dems out as much as possible.

So, you know, he held off on rate cuts as long as he could during this first term for Trump to try to get Trump in any way that he could. And so now that he has entered, you know, really his last six months, six, seven months as Federal Reserve chairman, wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to use his speaking engagements and the FOMC meetings, press conferences specifically to take as many jabs as he can before he fades into irrelevance, because that’s exactly what’s going to happen. He will be remembered as the worst chairman of the Federal Reserve since Arthur Burns. Maybe even worse when we look back on it, he’s made no fewer than five major policy errors as Kip covered yesterday as well, going back to one of his first years in office of the 2018 December from hell, where he continued to hike rates into what is notoriously everybody knows this if you’re a market watcher. December is in a liquid time of the market. People are on vacation. Right. And that of course led to the Christmas Eve massacre where we had a half day of trading and the markets just got absolutely destroyed.

[00:10:47]:
Course there’s a fantastic buying opportunity in hindsight but really it’s, it’s too bad that he feels this way and feels the need to go after Trump in this way because at the end of the day he’s hurting everyday Americans. This hurts the, the lower end of the income spectrum far more than it hurts the, the upper echelon of society. Right. When you’re going to get an inter a mortgage for your home, you know, if you’re already rich, you’re willing to pay higher rates. If somebody needs to go buy and buy a used car, you’re paying 6, 7, 8% rates. If you don’t have great credit, much higher than that. This is the kind of trickle down effects from the Federal Reserve’s higher rate policy. It absolutely is absolutely tone deaf in who he is affecting here.

And if more Americans knew about not only Jay Powell but the Federal Reserve as a whole, the way that it was founded, the oh man, you could get into all of it. But if you’re interested to dive deeper into it, I highly recommend the Creature from Jekyll Island. That is G. Edward Griffin’s book about the formation of the Federal Reserve, you know, who greatly points out is not federal and they have no reserves and it’s also unconstitutional. So everything about this organization is just terrible. And Jay Powell represents that perfectly. Right. So on the bright side of the Federal Reserve cutting rates yesterday, as many have pointed out now when the Fed cuts rates with the market at, at or near all time highs in every instance instance one year later, later the market was higher with an average return of over 20%.

[00:12:32]:
So that is exactly what we’re looking for here. Very bullish over the next 12 months for this market. And again we’ll dive into a little bit of this here that this is the pause that refreshes. It’s been an incredible run from the April lows, you know and when I say pause that refreshes I’m not saying that there’s going to be a 10% pullback. We already got one of those this year, right. Tariff mania technically I believe right up next to bear market level from where we from peak to trough. I mean in the Nasdaq it was right falling from over 20,000 to right at 147 84. I mean that’s a technical bear market in there.

Of course it was a great V shaped recovery but you get sell offs like that on average every 18 months plus. So it would be unlikely to get one during this timeframe. Of course anything can happen. We just don’t see that as being the case. Certainly not waffling here on that one. We do not see that as being the case. But again, we had hit over, over, over heavily overbought readings after hitting all time high after all time high. We have seen now the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey.

[00:13:45]:
I’ll go ahead and share that one here quickly for you. Big swing up in bulls this month. You know, this is the highest reading of bulls we’ve had. This only goes back to June, but this is the highest reading that we’ve had since at least June, likely since very early this year. Now we’ve talked about this year a lot as well. Until this gets to 50, 60% bulls for weeks and potentially months on end. That’s when you’re starting to look at a major market top. You know, readings in the 40s.

Tyler Herriage [00:14:13]:
We could stay here for weeks and months on end and not even have a market top again. It’s the 50s and 60s that you want to watch out for. So a pullback here would absolutely. We can see these flip just like they did last week. We could see the exact same flip next week if we have a little bit more action like this. Not what we want to see obviously, but it could happen. The Fear and greed index though remains at fear Mode, just a 37. So certainly this is not the irrational exuberance type of, of mode for this market.

All right, so I am running up on a, on a hard stop here. So I’m going to try and quickly cover the rest of this market. Um, but remember this fact as well. Again, back to the pause that refreshes. The timing of it couldn’t be better because we have one day left of trading here in October and then we enter the best six month time frame, seasonally speaking for the market. The November to April time frame is the exact time that you want to be in the market. You always want to be in the market, right? Time in the market is better than timing the market, by and large. Right? We use our VRA investing system to help us time the market.

[00:15:25]:
But that is really good tried and true wisdom from old Wall street adages there. Time in the market is better than timing the market, by and large. But from November to April, speaking of timing the market, that timeframe finishes higher 77% of the time. There is no other six month period that is better. You can go from any months you want. This is the most bullish time frame of the year and then you come up on another adage, sell in May and go away. But during this time frame, during this most bullish six months, the average gains for the S and P over 7%. Likely we’ll get better returns than that.

All right, so taking a look at our market action here on the day to day, we did finish lower across the board near the lows of the day. We were led by, if you want to call it that, the Dow Jones down 2/10 of 1% followed by small caps which do outperform large caps historically speaking by 5 to 7% over the next six months from a Fed rate cut. Then after that we had the S&P 500 down almost right at 1%. And the NASDAQ was our laggard on the day. Not what you want to see with tech leading lower, but Apple being up big, Amazon being up big. These gains hold into the open tomorrow. We’re gonna have a big bounce back day tomorrow. And we’re no longer, you know, we’re getting out of heavily overbought readings.

[00:16:49]:
We never got there on money flow. So that keeped us from the extreme overbought on steroids level. Right. We just hit an all time high yesterday. Right. All time highs are not a bearish occurrence. But the semis also. So tech did lead lower, but the semis held up a little bit better than tech.

Not as well as the Dow, but a little bit better than tech. So that’s what you want to see here. Next up, looking at our internals on the day. Earlier in the session it actually looked like an improvement in the internals over the last two sessions. Despite the fact that we were at all time highs, we did ultimately finish lower on the day, roughly 2 to 1 negative, more declining than advancing stocks. 52 week highs to lows did come in negative as well. And then for volume, just over 2 to 1 negative on the NYSE. Much better though on the NASDAQ.

Looking at our sectors on the day today, I’ll quickly point out yields were higher today. We’re back above a 4% here. You know our long term view yields will continue heading lower, but we saw more defensive names leading the way today. Real estate, our biggest winner, followed there by the financials. Excuse me, we’re on one quick chart here. And then our other leader on the day, three out of our 11 sectors finished higher on the day. The other leader was healthcare. Our laggards on the day, consumer discretionary communication services and technology, which also the tech sector just hit all time Highs as well.

[00:18:24]:
Finally here for today, our VRA commodity watch. And I don’t want to speak out of turn here in any way, but this might be a little bit of a FIFO kind of move here. First in, first out. Gold peaked ahead of the market. Gold rallying back here. Gold miners rallying back here as well. So gold back above $4,000 an ounce at $4,038 an ounce, up 1% on the day. But GDX, the gold mining ETF, up 2 1/2 percent.

Over 2 1/2% on the day. Exactly what you want to see from this group. Two and a half to one outperformance one will certainly take it after this, you know, fall there from the peak. We had gone from heavily overbought there into now. By and large on our shorter term momentum oscillators, we are at oversold levels there. But as Kip covered yesterday, you know, we just saw a six day decline of 10% in gold. It’s happened 10 times going back 44 years now. So when that has happened, gold is up two months later 100% of the time with bitcoin, big average gains as well.

[00:19:28]:
So we do remain absolutely, we remain bullish on gold. We still haven’t gotten. We’re in the price discovery mode of gold. If we can get away from this market manipulation, which is absolutely still going on to a lot of degrees, you know, gold is finding out where it really should be. I believe I saw a stat earlier today. The number of gold reserves held by central banks globally, you know, now by and large outweighs US Treasuries in maybe the highest level in decades. I want to say I’ll double check that work and we’ll get back to you. Silver also having a good day today.

Up 1.7% to $48.73 an ounce. Copper lower on the day, still above $5 a pound at $5 and 10 cents a pound. Oil hanging on to $60 a barrel. Just barely here at $60.29 a barrel. And then bitcoin was higher earlier in the day was above 110, above 111 now down three and a half percent at $107,646. A Bitcoin as we enter here and still are in the most bullish time frame of the year for bitcoin as well. Sorry, maybe not most bullish of the year, but Q4 in general is an incredible time frame and it is Q4 is the most bullish timeframe for bitcoin with average gains of the last 10 years of 57 and a half percent as it’s matured. You may not see the huge gains like that, but we do remain extremely bullish on bitcoin, folks.

[00:21:00]:
Hope you can join us tonight on Warzone with Wayne Allen Root. I’ll be on at 6:30 Eastern Time, 5:30 Central, so we hope you’ll be there with us again. You can find it on Rumble, Gateway, Pundit, or on Wayne’s X feed as well. But that is all that we have time for here today. Please be sure to subscribe to receive our VRA podcast every day at the market close. You can sign up at vraletter. Com, click the podcast link at the top, and we’d love to have you with us. Thanks again for tuning in.

Until next time. We’ll see you back here tomorrow for the close.