In today's episode, Tyler takes a deep dive into the under-the-hood action shaping today’s investing landscape. While we have entered a seasonally weak period of the year, there is plenty of bullish action beneath the surface, from surprising sentiment readings to intriguing breadth expansion. Most notably, he sets aside time for a special discussion on gold—exploring the potential implications of revaluing the U.S. Treasury’s gold reserves and what it could mean for both investors and the dollar itself.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Thursday afternoon everyone. Tyler Herriage here with you for today’s VRA Investing podcast.

Hope you all had a fantastic day out there today. Thank you for being here with us as always here today for the market close. You know, another eventful day here, maybe a little bit quieter, you know, end of summer months here. But under the hood of this market, as usually is the case is where the real action is happening right now. So we’ll get into some of that here today.

We’ve got a few different charts to share with you and really probably the most important aspect of this podcast today that I maybe should lead with, but it involves gold. I’ll give you a hint. There’s so we’ll get to it in our VRA commodity watch here towards the end of the podcast today because it’s a bit of a different pod topic so I wanted to save some time for it at the end. We’ve talked about it here a lot. You know the one, I’ll give you another hint. We’ve talked a lot here about Trump’s plan, Scott Besson’s potential plan to revalue gold on the Treasury’s balance sheet. Now up to this point in really since Trump was elected, this has been a big speculation is that they were going to do this. So got some interesting factors there.

[00:01:36]:
I won’t give too much away just yet because it’ll fall under. We’ll see. You’ll see why, why I saved the best for last year. So jumping into it today.

Let’s start kind of with our markets. A little bit of economic data here though as well. I will get to our markets here in a minute. But again, under the the hood of this market continues to be strong. We’ll get to that. Into the internals, but sentiment, wow. I mean we’re between in some cases less than 3% away for major sectors or major indexes from all time highs, even the Q’s. You know, our leadership group that a lot of people look to, you know, less than three and a half percent from those recent all time highs and first screen share of the day here, the fear and greed index in neutral now actually I will say it remained in greed longer than I thought that it would but now back down to neutral territory.

[00:02:32]:
And I bring it up today because you know, again it was a little bit surprising to see that greed aspect here. But again we’re only 3 1/2% away from all time highs in the Q’s which can often lead to the upside and the downside, tech in general.

We want to see semis leading tech and tech, or sorry tech leading the market and semis leading leading tech. And that occurs. You don’t want to see to the downside, but that typically is the case as well. You know, the semis, as Kip discussed yesterday at lows yesterday, which was a higher low by the way, if we’re looking at a chart, we might hear in a little bit, we got a higher low yesterday on a short term basis from the semis. And wow, to even see that 7% number right from peak to trough, from the all time high earlier this month to yesterday at the lows. That’s, that’s a pretty big number right there from the semis. You know, I, I bring that up. I’ll get to more of this here in a minute.

[00:03:31]:
I’ve got a lot of stuff I’m excited about covering here today. But again for this small of a pullback, you know, and bulls are nowhere to be found. Let’s take a look at the AAI sentiment survey as well. Look at this. Bulls, absolutely nowhere to be found. We’ve had more bears than bulls. I mean really, if we go back to the beginning of the year, look at where it was in March, right, just before the April lows. But still we had a brief period in here where we got slightly more bulls, right.

Than bears. And wow, slight uptick. Not even a whole percent though this week. And again we’re just 3 to 5% away from all time highs. Yes, the semis went down to 7% but we’ll get to one of these charts here in a little bit of a V shaped recovery like we’ve seen comparing it to 2020.

Again we’ll get to that. Let’s go ahead and do it right now. Let’s cover our market action on the day because I keep talking about it, I was just looking at this chart myself. Kips talked about this a lot as well. But we are in a seasonally weak time period for our markets right now. You know, September typically the worst month of the year, October, known as crash month. But that’s where bottoms take after the 2020 V shaped recovery. We’ve talked about it a lot here because it is the most recent example of what we have just seen that was on a bigger scale in a slightly longer time frame but very similar to what we just saw.

[00:05:00]:
You know, bare market pullback 20% plus and then a few months later, back to all time highs and beyond. So what happened from There, Right. You might remember a few months ago I shared a chart of the NASDAQ from that time period to kind of mark you know, where we are in this time frame. Because I do and have Kip and I both have continued to say that we are in the early innings of this bull market. And now it might sound funny because like Kip and Tyler, y’ all been saying that since 2022. Well, the tariff mania really gave us a reset on this bull market. But even then we’ve talked about it going through 2030.

And likely beyond that. I think that this bull market, in hindsight, the dot-com era, will have nothing on this.

From that five year period, the NASDAQ rallied 575%. I think we’re looking at a longer time frame and bigger moves higher. And remember, you know, during that 1995-2000 period, there are multiple pullbacks of 10% plus including a technical bare market of 20% just like we had earlier this year. So I wouldn’t call that the end of the bull run. Maybe you know, the way that some people define it, it def. Depends on that. Call it then a secular bull market and that’s what we’re in here. And you think it has a long way to run if it did start in 2022.

[00:06:24]:
Because that was a, you know, that wasn’t a V shaped recovery bare market that lasted 11 months. Believe that’s correct. For some sectors it was longer. Now to back to the most recent V shaped recovery, we’re gonna look at the S P500 in this case scenario. I didn’t draw it up fully here today. Run a little short on time. Had some great meetings today. And let me just real quick, here we will be.

This will be my last podcast for not just this week but for the next couple of weeks. Here you will be back to you. We’ve got a little trip coming up. Looking forward to getting out in nature a little bit. We think this market is going to present some incredible opportunities in the short run. So it’s going to be tough to get away from the screen. So any updates of importance, we’ll probably find a way to get out to you, but I won’t no promises just yet. So looking at this chart here again the most again the bear market here again that like 11 month period or so RV shaped recovery today and then the COVID V shaped recovery.

[00:07:30]:
Now here’s what I wanted to point out. Here’s where we got back to all time highs. Kips talked about this as well. Just A little visualization of it though. And then the all time highs peaked. Look at this. What 5 or so percent above the previous all time high. And then we got that 10 pullback.

Fantastic buying opportunity. That’s how we’re going to approach any dips from here going forward as well. Nothing has changed from our tune in that regard. We’re absolutely buyers on dips here as well because look at what it did after this, the 10% pullback and then it went on to rally another 45% into the peak that I was just talking about before the 2022 bear market. How about that for another 40% move higher from the previous all time highs. So if we compare that to today and I’m again not saying that we have to get a 10% pullback. This is a totally different and you know, even more powerful stage of this bull market now. And we’ll get to some of that here on the podcast as well.

[00:08:34]:
So again we’re looking at a 40% move higher from here. You think about what that looks like again, you are here. I wish I could zoom in on that a little bit. I will zoom in a little bit here. There we go, look, that’s 2020. So we’re comparing the same time periods. You’re here, we’re right here. You know, so again, if you feel like you missed out on this, move higher.

This is the point I want to continue to reiterate. There’s no better money making mechanism than the stock market, no better wealth creation device than the stock market. We’ve talked about this at length and actually is a good segue. We’ll get to more of a market action because it’s a good segue into a topic I do want to talk about here today as well is inflation because I saw this chart from Brian Rich. You know, we have seen a slight uptick in inflation just in the last couple of months. Nothing of note here even to true inflation. Sorry, I keep going back and forth but even trueflation, we are back above 2% but we’re at 2%.

That’s the Fed’s goal. And more reason that the Fed should be cutting rates. But in the innovation revolution, this isn’t just our view. History has proven this. Technology and, and innovations are deflationary occurrences. AI, you know, we’re spending a ton of money now in these data centers and everything. The long term impact of these will be deflationary in our view. So we’ve got to be forward looking in this as well.

[00:10:02]:
And from day one, from the Peak of inflation to today. We’ve said it was never going to be a straight line down, right. So what’s interesting now we’ve Talked about this. M2 money supply is hitting all time highs once again after you know, dumping essentially 40 additional money supply into the system during COVID insanity we’ve leveled off. We had 15 months of contraction after that. And you know, why not just get this chart in here as well. I’ll try to speed this up a little bit for you but yo, hey, last one here for a little bit. Let’s have some fun, right? So here’s the chart of M2 money supply.

The all time look. So again the, that’s the massive increase. I was just talking about the massive a decade’s worth of, of M2 generation in the matter of, you know, less than a year dumped into the system. Of course you’re going to see inflation.

[00:11:04]:
This again back to the point that Trump’s team has made so well recently. I think even some of the professors I had at in college would probably try to disagree with it. Paul Krugman was certainly tried to disagree with this. He’s you know, very well known economist, unfortunately wrote the textbook from my Econ 101 class. Luckily I did have some pretty good professors because that book was full of disinformation. What the classical economists, you know, not the true classics with these kind of the, the status quo of economists today, I should say, you know, the mainstream economists would tell you, you know, wage growth is inflationary, economic growth is inflationary. That’s not true at all. Those things are not inflationary.

People getting paid more is not inflationary. This, what we’re looking at right here is the only thing that affects inflation and that is the money printer.

So you see M2, I hear a lot of people saying like, you know, hey, in inflation going to come back, y’ all are telling the, the Fed to cut rates. But M2 is on the rise. You know, just with yields a little bit lower, we’re seeing increases in inflation. Things still cost way more than they did five years ago.

[00:12:18]:
Well this is a point that we made in the big bribe as well. Inflation is never like a up and down really. It’s a stair step. It’s rate of change. Inflation is what you, what you’re really looking at.

We’re never going to get back to the days where a Coke cost you a nickel. This is not going to happen.

That would crumble our system because we’ve, you know, by printing money, you’re essentially stealing from tomorrow to pay for today.

That’s why our debt to GDP is so high. So final point here on this again, rate of change inflation is what we want to look at. So this by itself doesn’t give you the whole picture.

You might see this the chart of M2 and I’ll go back to it here one more time Again you might see that at all time highs and say well we must have inflation. Well no, we’ve also got to look at the rate of change inflation just like we do at prices. Again we’re not ever going to go back to those previous prices. You might see egg prices come down, gas prices might come down, things like that. But we’re not going back, you know we’re not going to see new vehicles. They might drop a little bit. You know, homes might drop a little bit. You know you could even see a significant haircut.

[00:13:28]:
But we’re not going back to those prices in any meaningful way in our view as long as this continues. And there’s no stopping to this in sight right now. So rate of change inflation in M2, our rate of change in M2 is totally different right now. This again right here, that’s that massive spike that they printed during COVID and the reverse repo deal. You can see it started in 2019, late 2019. Almost makes you wonder did they know something was this a liquidity crisis? There’s a lot of speculation out there about that. But to wrap we’re back to the pre Covid average of M2 rate of change. So yes, you know we’re going to have inflation.

The Fed’s going to keep its 2% target should be zero.

But we’re back on track. This is a normalization of money supply change here. Not you know again something that should spike inflation absolutely to incredible levels here. At least not in our view hasn’t been our view nothing has changed in that regard. So you know appreciate your patience there. Wanted to dive into that one today and we’ll come up here again on it in a little bit. So we’ll quickly wrap here on our markets because I do want to get to this cold topic. We did finish lower on the day for the most part.

[00:14:41]:
Small caps did finish higher on the day to day. Really good to see. And a bit of a you know for a forward looking mechanism tells you could yields head lower from here. Of course all eyes are on Jay Powell at Jackson Hole tomorrow. You know we expect them absolutely to cut rates here in September. That is they should have done it already. That has been our view.

But the probabilities do are continuing to drop on the ever volatile CME’s fed watch tools. We were at 90% like a week ago. We’re at 75% now. We could likely get a hawkish J pal tomorrow.

This is what I talked about on Wayne show on Tuesday, which is also up on our Rumble Channel as well. If you want to check it out. Please do. Thank you Wayne for having me on and loving the new show as well. If you want to catch it tonight, War Zone, you know, to Gateway pundit, they’ll have it on there so be sure to check out Wayne’s show there.

To what Wayne and I were talking about with the Fed, they’re absolutely behind. But Jay Powell might use tomorrow’s speech. They don’t make policy decisions at Jackson Hole, so he could use this as an opportunity to kick the can. But they’re coming after Fed members tune into Kip’s podcast yesterday. If you don’t know about this, you know this Fed member who’s gonna have to resign. Getting two homesteads in different states.

So the Fed can try to get lower interest rates but they won’t do it for us.

[00:16:04]:
Where’s the oversight here? Kip’s absolutely right. We need way more oversight for, you know, nonprofits. Absolutely. It should be criminal how much they pay themselves compared to how much goes away. But that’s the topic for another day essentially for our major index on on the day. I’ll cap here with it. You know, we, yes, we finished lower fractionally between 310 and 410 of 1%. But we finished off of the lows of the day.

The Dow actually went higher earlier in the session as well. The semis held up better than tech. So really again, not a bad day all around then, you know, feel good. We’ve been in all time high after all time high. You know, so we’re a little bit of a come down from the party maybe. But again, buying opportunity, especially when you’re looking forward of hey, if I bought today, am I going to catch the exact low? Maybe not. Maybe we do get a pullback in September. Will you be happy with the price you bought it at a year from today? Really even six months from today by Q1 of next year at the latest.

[00:17:04]:
I think you absolutely will be absolutely. And continuing to buy the dips from here? We think that’s absolutely still the smart money move. All right, so fast forwarding to our internals here on the day again, even Last week, too. But three days in a row, four days or so, you have some weaker action, shaky action from the market, really. The last three in the internals, Kib and I keep calling each other like, have you seen these internals? These are actually pretty strong under the hood today. So again, for most of the session, just about all day, we were in the red, you know, finished negative for the Dow NASDAQ and the S and P. And we did have negative advanced decline on the Nyse and the Nasdaq, but barely 52e highs, lows came in positive on the NYSE, slightly negative on the Nasdaq. We know those aren’t all prime time players.

And then volume came in positive today. That’s conviction right there. That’s bulls buying, you know, buying the dip. That’s exactly what they’re doing here. Despite the fact that sentiment levels are so low, the bulls remain, the bulls that are out there are still convicted. These are great pullbacks. This shakes out those weak money hands, those the scared money. And yeah, we’ll buy it from you at a discount then.

[00:18:20]:
It’s an opportunity. That’s how we continue to look at this. But volume positive for both the NYSE and the nasdaq. Good to see. For our sectors on the day, we just had two sectors. We had energy and materials positive on the day. On to the downside, we had consumer staples going lower with utilities and consumer discretionary. So defensive names a little bit leading the way lower there.

So finally, for today, without further ado, our VRA commodity watch. I don’t have anything to share on my screen. Oh, I do actually, in a second, though, but we’ll get to that. But to gold, because some interesting pieces have come out recently. The Federal Reserve, you know, is literally, or not literally is usually pretty close to the chest on stuff that they’re developing until they start to drop. You know, some Easter eggs along the way. And earlier this month, they released a piece about countries that had revalued their gold holdings on their balance sheet and the consequences of it, the impact and the benefits of it as well. You know, as we’ve talked about here before on the podcast, you know, the.

[00:19:34]:
Currently on the US balance sheet, there’s 8,000 plus metric tons of gold, all valued at $42.22 an ounce. Well, the price of gold as of right this second, the spot price, $3,383 an ounce.

So technically, on the balance sheet, those 8,000 metric tons of gold, the valuation is roughly $11 billion, you know, a Drop in the bucket. Especially when you think in GDP terms of trillions and trillions of dollars.

So if they were to revalue gold at today’s prices, that takes that $11 billion on the Treasury’s balance sheet up to $874 billion. Talk about a massive, massive repricing that’s bigger than Denmark’s gdp. That’s incredible. You know, and then the next level, implications of what that means. Kip and I have speculated about it. Does this allow them, you know, to use that? What can they use this money for?

[00:20:47]:
Well, why would. What would be the benefits? What could be the potential pain points? And that’s what this Fed piece was about. There’s another piece in Market Watch today, you know, that, that had some very interesting takes on the ramifications of it that we see as unlikely.

Especially you didn’t see it in the Fed’s paper at all. So I don’t know exactly how he drew some of these conclusions. I won’t get into all of them today. Back to the point at hand. This money can, theoretically, this found money essentially can be used for new incentives then.

[00:21:17]:
Potentially buying Bitcoin for, you know, this strategic reserve Bitcoin deal that they’re doing, could it help create and fund the sovereign wealth fund that Trump is talking about doing?

Where newborn kids was like a thousand dollars is given to them right away. And that’s for your future there, right? What? And again, to owning stocks, inflationary assets, owning stocks, gold, silver, physical Bitcoin, all these things. You know, what is a sovereign wealth fund? Do that. Where every citizen in the US Is born with that. It encourages stock ownership because cash is trash. It is what this really does in the danger of it. I guess where the article was coming from is what this is an admission of. And I’m kind of skipping forward here a little bit, and I will.

[00:22:15]:
I’m gonna skip forward to this because Kip and I have talked about this a lot. Since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the dollar has lost 98% of its value. I mean, you could probably call it 99, depending on where you’re looking at.

Compared to gold, especially if you, if you valued it compared to gold, we’ve lost something like 98% of its value. Since these ounces are at. It was valued on the Treasury’s balance sheet at $42 an ounce. Again, now 3,300, nearly $3,400. So in that time frame, the US dollar has lost exactly that amount. It’s an revaluing gold on the balance sheet is an admission that this is what has happened to your dollar.

We’ve all speculated about it. Everyone says you’re doing it. This is essentially an admission of guilt that all of this was a lie. So the concern there would be, you know, what does this imply for other countries? Oh, well, you’re saying this is how much the dollar is actually worth.

[00:23:20]:
What does that mean to the BRICS alliance? Does that give them a talking point? Look how weak the dollar is.

I don’t think so. That’s what kind of the conclusions that this Market watch piece drew from. But we haven’t seen that in other countries. And does the having the world reserve currency impact that? Yes, absolutely. But it’s more about what they’re going to do with these theoretical dollars. Because here’s I speculated about this today. I haven’t heard anybody else out there say this. We exist in a fractional reserve banking system.

We know that the dollars that go into the bank, if we all wanted to go get our money out today, they’d never be able to do it.

You know, because they 10, 20, 30 x hypothecate this wealth and loan it out. Do you not think the Treasury, a bank is going to do the same exact thing? So we’re going from $11 billion on the balance sheet to 8, $874 billion on the balance sheet. That is an 80 fold increase.

[00:24:17]:
What people are talking about like that is undervalued by adx. They could be off by an order of magnitude. That’s how incredible this is.

They, the, you know, the, the people who are saying that this is incredible. Look at this. I think they’re off by order of magnitude because I think they’ll 10x leverage against that wealth. So instead of $874 billion, you’re talking about, you know, $8.7 trillion potentially here. And why couldn’t they go further than that?

Who’s to stop them from doing so? So, you know, what would the impact of yields be on something like that? What would the impact be on the value of the dollar?

Not necessarily on inflation. It’s two different kind of topics. You know, because it’s, I won’t dive into the full currency topic here today, but inflation is different from devaluing the dollar. We’ll tie it up there. But what does this mean for gold? Well, we remain extremely bullish on it here. Absolutely. It’ll be exciting to see what financial engineering Takes place because. Because of this. Because that’s exactly what we’re talking about here is one of our themes in the big bribe. This is financial engineering playing out in real time.

[00:25:27]:
Now let’s use that money instead of sending it abroad and instead of spending it on illegal immigrants, instead of spending it on the welfare state, let’s use it to stop taxing our citizens.

To improve the daily lives of our citizens, not to fill the pockets of our politicians, lobbyists and all of those other third party nos nonprofits. All of it.

No, put that money back into the pockets of the American people because we can spend it better than our government can. We know that for a fact. When they’re taxing you, they’re saying we can spend this. We’re going to spend this better than you can. That’s why we’re taking it from you.

We’ve got bigger projects than you. Spending it on whatever you want to spend it on. No, give that power back to the people because we invoke with our dollar. That’s the most important thing. Lastly here I do have one more chart for you. Gold miners had an incredible session today. Junior miners also having a great session. This is GDX to GLD a little bit confusing chart.

Let me change it up here a little bit. See if I can do this on the fly here for you. Take out the moving averages. There we go.

[00:26:44]:
Look at that. Has gone absolutely parabolic and exactly what we want to see. We talk about this a lot like you want to see the semis outperforming tech. You want to see the gold miners leading the way. So on a day where gold was flat, not going anywhere, the miners were up over 1.6% on the day. Exactly what we want to see continue from this group. As Kip said yesterday, we remain ultra bullish on this group here. Look for, looking for a massive, massive move higher.

You know, both in gold but the real power is in the miners. All right, to wrap here for the day. Silver now flat on the day. $38.09 an ounce. I do want to take a look at that chart as well here before I, I pass it up. You know, again, healthy looking chart. The Kip has talked about this low on a lot as well. The you there is definitely some value to be had in silver in the ratio to of gold to silver.

The valuation is at historically low level. So there might be some outperformance due there. Copper 445 a pound right now. Oil down to $63.47 a barrel. And finally here for today, bitcoin. You know, continuing this recent pullback here, similar to the rest of this bull market, we’ll look at this as a buying opportunity. Absolutely. Bitcoin now down 1.75% on the day at 1, $112,600 a bitcoin, folks.

[00:28:06]:
That is all that we have time for here today. Hope that you have a great next week here. We we’ll see you back here in a couple of weeks. Looking forward to it. We’ll miss you. Absolutely. And we’ll be staying up to date here on the market. So if you have any questions, shoot us an email@supportvrainsider.com Go to our website contact form is there as well.

Yeah, we’re looking forward to getting back here with you, though, but that’s all that we have the time we have here today. Please be sure to subscribe to receive our podcast every day at the market close VRAletter.com.  Click the podcast link at the top and we’d love to have you with us. Thanks again for tuning in. Until next time, we’ll see you back here tomorrow for or. Yeah, Kip will see you back here tomorrow for the close.