Foreign don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Monday afternoon everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day. Hope your weekend was fantastic as well. A little bit better start to the week this week, huh? Last week was a little brutal. You know, we talked about this a lot over the last three weeks or so that the market went through a very weird short term seasonality, a short term liquidity issue. The shutdown, you know, we had this big melt up in this, in the shutdown market did nothing but go straight up.
And then that was by the rumor sell the news. Once the shutdown ended, the markets move higher ended. And that is a wall of worry move higher that we saw. I don’t, I don’t think I appreciate that enough at the time and realized it, that’s what it is. It’s a wall of worry move higher. Because when that wall of worry comes down as it did when the shutdown ended, this is just the way the markets trade. And it’s even as long as I’ve done this, it’s so hard to remember that when everything looks great, everything’s hunky dory. It’s like there every reason in the world for the market to go higher.
[00:00:59]:
You can almost bet your bottom dollar the market’s going to go down then because the market has one job, Mr. Market. Which is why we always say we’re going to crush Mr. Market. He’s a son of a. Mr. Market is a son of a. And what he wants to do is crush the majority whenever the majority is on one side.
His goal is to pull that rug out from underneath you. And it happens pretty much every time. This is why we’re big contrarians here. You know, we’ve just had a big reset, right? We just had a big reset because it serves all very, very well. But it wasn’t fun to go through it, was it? But anytime you see the fear and greed index as it was last Thursday, hit a four. The all time low reading was two. That was in the the fourth quarter from hell in 2018 again. Jay Powell was Fed chair then as well.
But hit four, then hit it two. Excuse me, hit a two, then hit a four on at the bottom of the bear market which is October 13, 2022. And so again last Thursday once again hit a four. And I know there are a lot of people that, that just say this junk, the fear and greed index is a bunch of junk. And I. They’ve got a decent point. It really just doesn’t represent what they think it does. It’s not that it’s junk, it’s just not a pure sentiment indicator.
[00:02:15]:
But what it is is this. Whenever you get that reading down below 10, you better have your shopping list ready because if you don’t, then you’re not smart money. That’s just the way it works. So everybody loves to, you know, to, to, to pick apart the Pure greed index. If you’re not using it at the extremes, at the extremes. If you’re not using it for what it’s intended to do, then then you’re, you’re not really the smart money. That’s just the way it is. So last week again Thursday here a four also in that same day we saw that the level of put buying hit the second highest total on record.
So everybody buying puts sentiment was clearly as negative as it could be. Just as we are what entering the most seasonal time frame of the year. And yeah, that’s what happened on Friday. So from Friday, technically From Friday till December 7, we are full on bullish. If you, if seasonality holds up. It’s been spotty this year, to be candid. But I always, I always want to know what seasonality says because if you catch a trend, right, and you know you’ve got seasonality backing you up, just again, it’s just another arrow in your quiver. You know, it’s just one more thing to give you confidence because that’s what we like to do here.
We get an opportunity to buy at the extremes. It makes us more confident. And today’s trading certainly, certainly added to that confidence for sure. Seasonality here is very good till December 7, then it plateaus for a few days and then we’re off to the races again. Seasonality is essentially very strong here from here. Well, actually parts of November. November was a little shaky. The shut shutdown helped us.
[00:03:47]:
Right. But from here until really until selling may go away which by the way doesn’t really always hold up either. But these are the most bullish months of the year. That’s certainly the case for small caps. The this is now that we’re in the three month stretch for small cap. Small caps were up 1.9% today. It didn’t lead though, did they? Nasdaq up 2.7%. So Nasdaq just had its best day since May.
What led Nasdaq? Let’s see, what are we always talking about here? What’s our favorite indicator? It’s the indicator to watch. Has been since the birth of quantitative easing. You’re all Answering the same. I hear you out there. The semis SMH the semi ETF up 4.1% today. We shared this chart with you a lot because it is our favorite relative strength chart we talked about last week. I shared it this morning in our letter. I probably overshare this but you know, I’m telling you this is an insider secret.
There’s a couple that you don’t, you won’t find a lot of market timers talk about because they don’t want to give all their secrets away. We don’t, we don’t practice that. We’re not that small minded here. At least we try not to be. Whenever you get stochastics, right that’s we have four momentum oscillators in the VR investing system. Whenever you get stochastic, that extreme oversold, you know, the most oversold, it could be like in a bottom 10 percentile, right? A turn’s coming. And when you have the other momentum oscillators in the various system, you know we focus on these regular here when, whenever they all get to extreme oversold. Very rarely do they get to extreme oversold on steroids, although Bitcoin just did that.
[00:05:19]:
Kind of getting ahead of myself here. But whenever that happens, you know a turn’s coming. So when you have that reading along with the fear and greed at 4, you’re looking and that’s why, you know, we added, we had a position today in the semis, a leveraged ETF because the semis are just flashing all kinds of buy signals. And folks, this is not going to be a short term trade. This is going to be a very good trade. Especially because we own other semis and you know, like semis elite, all technology, right? We’re very long this group and I think we’ve been given a gift here. I really think we’ve been given a gift. I think this, we’ll look back on this as a reset.
They gave us all an opportunity to either initiate or add two positions. And I think it’s, I think as we get to year end here, I guess we get Christmas. I, I really think it’s gonna be very Merry Christmas. I think the lows are in. I think today’s trading supports that it was good again, semis led, nasdaq, NASDAQ loved the broad market. We had good, not great internals, but good internals. But they’ve been so bad for you know, two, three weeks. I think it’s going to take a little time for the broad market to catch up.
But our leaders led today, and they really made that turn on Thursday. Again, Nvidia reported earnings last Wednesday with that big reversal. Scared everybody to death. But again, that. That Thursday, fear ingredient 4 and the other things talked about. I think it’s a reset that’s going to serve us very well. And a good time, I think a very good time to initiate or add two positions for a phenomenal trade into year end for our new folks here. Welcome.
[00:06:50]:
Great having you with us. We like to talk about the things that are most important as we see it. And I want to cover this quickly with you, because we talk about our big Three pretty often. The Big Three are the Trump economic miracle. Look, and I’m going to. I’m just going to say this, okay? We try not to be very political here. You know, during an election season, it’s a little easier to do that because we’re all wrapped up in it. I tend to talk about things that are important to me and, you know, open my mouth to see what Kip’s going to say.
But. But by and large, you know, this is next year, is a midterm year, of course, but we’ve stayed away from politics mostly this year. But I have to tell you, from talking to a lot of you, and I mean a lot of you, and by the way, I heard the same thing. Wayne. Allyn Root told me the same thing over the weekend. I said, wayne, man, I gotta tell you, I’m hearing from a lot of people that are not happy with Trump. And he stopped me right there. You know, we usually catch up on Saturday because he’s watching football.
Both watching football or just relaxing. He stopped me right there and he said, kip, if you’re hearing it, what do you think I’m hearing of it? I said, but, Wayne, you have the biggest Trump fans in the world. He goes, not always. He goes, not. Not when. Not with the H1B visa thing. Not when he turns on Marjorie Taylor Greene. Not win this, not win that.
[00:08:08]:
You know, so Wayne hears that. I think probably as much as anybody in the country. He’s a great sounding board, a great friend to have for times like these. So I’m just going to make the point that there are a lot of. I think Trump’s got some work to do, and I think that means the Republican Party’s got some work to do. When he just held hands, literally held and rubbed Mondami’s hand in the Oval Office, I think we all were like, what is going on here? So, look, here’s the thing. My wife and I talked about this weekend as well, and I’ll leave it after this comment. The one thing we know about Trump is that he pivots.
He pivots better than anybody ever in politics. He reads the room and he knows when things are going, you know, get a little messed up. And I think that’s what we’re going to see from Trump, and I think it’ll happen pretty quickly. He’ll never make, no politicians can ever make all of us happy. But he’s got some work to do. And I’m hearing it from you guys, and I know you’re all your friends and family are probably saying the same thing. Well, let’s see if he makes the pivot. It’s an important time to make it, and I think he will.
But the bigger picture again, the Trump economic miracle, because, look, next year is going to be insane for the economy is going to rock and roll next year. Like Atlanta Fed’s already at 4.2%. That’s for third quarter. Now, this shutdown is going to slow things a little bit for the fourth quarter, but that’ll be temporary. The markets will look right through it. That is not a big deal. But this first and second quarter and then going into the midterms, I mean, this is exactly the way Trump and Bessant, who’s a phenomenal treasury secretary, set this up. They want this economy on fire by the time we get to the midterms.
[00:09:49]:
But because most people have made up their mind who they’re going to vote for well before voting day, I think they understand we’ve got to have the economy on fire first quarter, second quarter of next year. We believe that’s exactly what’s going to happen. We’ve been telling you, we Forecast now for six months that GDP, the GDP growth would hit 5% by the third quarter of next year, again in advance of the midterms. I think it’s going to happen in the first quarter. I think we’re going to see 5% GDP growth in the first quarter. And you’ll hear all these mainstream economists pooh, poohing it. And oh, but this, oh, but that the people know, right? And if at the same time you have the prices coming down a bit, I mean, look, let’s, let’s, let’s be honest about. Prices will come down a lot for a lot of things, but not for everything.
And of course, the media wants to focus on banana prices or something. You know, they no longer talk about eggs because that’s gone. They don’t talk about, you know, oil prices or gas prices, because that’s, These handle that. But I think that, I think that we’ll continue to see disinflation, meaning that’s what the innovation revolution is going to bring. A combination of the Trump economic miracle, Innovation revolution with, with massive economic and GDP growth. Yes, it’s going to take some jobs. It’s going to create far more. This is probably the thing that I hear, the concern that I hear the Tyler and I hear from people most is that so many jobs are going to be destroyed that everyone’s really worried about the economy.
And I’ll just say, you know, the timing of this is always, you know, you never can tell on the timing. Maybe there’s going to be a short term impact. I don’t think so. I think that like, like all technological advances, especially like an age like we’re going through now with the innovation revolution, I think we’re going to have so many millions of jobs created that the jobs that are lost will just, they, they’ll be forgotten. Like the horse and buggy, you know, they’ll just be forgotten. And people in 10 years will go, people used to do that. You believe people used to do that. I think that’s where we’re headed.
[00:11:44]:
And so you combine that with the absolute ocean of liquidity that’s out there, and that’s really one of the big drivers. Okay. It’s not just that 40% of Americans have no mortgage because they paid. We learned. We learned. We learned from the financial crisis, did we not? We got our financial house in order. We said, never again are banks going to be able to take our shit. And so Americans learned.
Yeah, we have two Americas. We got the first and second. I come from the third. So I understand, I think as well, if not better than most people, but the first America is just in corporate America, right? The wealthy, if you will, middle class, which is now, you know, middle class used to be the elite, right? So many people. This is not well known, not well understood. So many people that make up the new middle class that are sitting on a pile of cash, they have no mortgage again, home Average, home equity, 70%. You never hear this talked about in the media when I’ve tried to bring it up in the past, like on Charles Payne show, even with Wayne, you know, they’re always like, well, what’s it like being an elitist, man? Hey, how’s your time? How’s your weekend at the yacht club, Kip? That’s actually what Charles said to me. I’m like, dude, I try to make a broader point here that the media may not be covering this, but there’s a psyop of negativity because the first America is doing so well.
We know that corporate America is rocking and rolling share buybacks at all time highs. Merger, merger and acquisition activity is now starting to pick up, just starting to. And we still haven’t seen a resurgence in IPOs. And so for those that think that, you know, the bubbles burst or whatever, you know, this bubble hasn’t even started forming yet. That’s how far this is. This is going to be a multi decade revolution for technology. It’s going to impact us all. There’ll be new inventions that you and I don’t even, we can’t even fathom right now.
[00:13:35]:
That’s the age that AI is going to take us to. And I think it’s. Look, sure there’ll be risk with it, there’ll be downside from it, but I think there’s going to be far more upside. I think there’s never been a better time to be alive and certainly never better, better time to be American. You know, to people that think that America sucks, why are you still here? Go somewhere else if you’re so unhappy. Just leave us be and let us enjoy our home here. But those are the big three. And then this morning I wrote up we don’t talk about this much anymore, but in our book the Big Bribe, you know, we laid out our five mega trends.
I’ll just mention them quickly. The innovation revolution we just talked about in financial engineering, really those do work hand in hand. If you know what’s happening with bitcoin. And I don’t mean just the, the, the, the cryptocurrency, right, but the blockchain. And what’s happening with tokenization? Every asset on the planet is going to be tokenized in a decade. Your home will be tokenized. Your, if you want your car to be tokenized, it will, everything will be on the blockchain. And what’s cool about that? It’s going to make everything.
It’s going to make, it’s going to be everything transparent and it’s going to make everything far more liquid. Anybody that wants to be able to get liquidity out of one of their assets is going to be able to do it because it’s tokenization. So again, this is another one of those changes people haven’t refactored in. But it’s a massive change coming from financial engineering. Look, we’re already seeing earnings are exploding higher. That’s only going to Continue. The rest of the final three years of Trump’s term is kind of crazy, right? He’s hadn’t even been in office a year yet and it just feels like longer because it’s second term and because it’s Trump, I guess. But again, earnings expansion, economic expansion, we’re going to go to 5% GDP, 8% GDP, 10% GDP.
[00:15:18]:
Cathie Wood at Ark was the first person that I saw that made the case with her team. And Tyler and I have been saying it for about a year and then she started actually laying it out. She’s got a team of 100 people, you know, here. It’s me and Tyler. Sam just joined us. We got a small team here, but we had pretty decent instincts. I’ve done this for forever, right? But Cathie Wood laid this out. If you haven’t read her economic analysis and her assumptions, how are we going to get to 8 to 10% GDP for a decade, maybe 2? This is the kind of economic revolution that not just is innovation, but technology, but economic as well.
This is what’s directly ahead of us. And this is why this bull market is just getting started. Long term housing boom. That’s our third megatrend. Look, housing may have stagnated, but, but housing drives everything. I think we all know that. It’s by far the most important leading economic indicator in the VERA investing system of why it carries so much weight. And that’s by the way, why we hate seeing XHB where it is just, just drop below the home builder index.
Just drop below the 200 day. You do not want to see that. But Bessant pays attention to these things. I think he saw that. And now what do you see? Well, as Tyler just reminded Me, the CME FedWatch tool, which by the way was at 24 two weeks ago for a, for a rate cut on December 10th, is now up to 8.85%. Tyler tracks this like a hawk. 85% on the CME FedWise tool that a rate cut will take place on December 10th. If we hadn’t had this shakeout, I’ll tell you the truth.
[00:16:55]:
And if Bitcoin had plummeted from 126 to, what was it, 79. I don’t know that we’d had a rate cut. I think, I think this is their master plan. And sometimes, you know, you got to take a step, a step back to take two steps forward. I think that’s what just happened here. We got a real liquidity scare, but it never hit gold. I bounced around a Little bit here, but it never hit gold. That was the tell for us, right? Everything else got hit gold, really held up.
And so that, that, that told us there’s, there’s no medium to long term liquidity issues, only short term. And I think again, best and those guys have pulled something off here because a rate cut is important. It’s certainly important to housing and it’s certainly important to second America. First, America doesn’t care. It just rate cuts do not matter. Honestly, if I can tell you the truth, rate cuts don’t matter. Stock market, they just not, not, not in the medium to long term. Maybe in the very short term the stock market, public companies could not care less.
They’re not borrowing money. Why would they care? But you know, when it comes to animal spirits and really getting the country on the, on the right track again, now that we do have a red pilled America and that is absolutely happening here in this country, you know, getting rates lower so that everyone can participate in this coming economic boom is very important. And I think a rate cut certainly will go well. At least tell people, hey, the Fed is paying attention. Yeah, Jay Powell is going to be gone in May, but at least they’re moving in the right direction. That’s a positive. Fourth is a millennial generation. We talk about this all the time here.
[00:18:24]:
And again, nobody’s talking about this. These are the things that drive Tata like crazy. Because this is fact, right? It’s the largest segment of the population now. Millennials, 72 million people already the wealthiest. They’re inheriting 85 trillion. They might not be there now, but that 85 trillion from boomers is coming. It’s already started. And the thing that’s different about millennials is they’re super smart.
They’re born into DNA. They love housing, they love equities, they love cryptos. They’re born entrepreneurs. They don’t want to buy bonds. No. They want to invest in startups. Right. They want to buy the most aggressive crypto that there is.
They are open minded and they get it right. This is the future. This is the future of the near future of America. Right? And so when you combine it with what’s happening with the red pilling of America is so much more bullish than most people even think about. All of this is going to combine, we think literally a melt up bull market. We think next year we’re really going to see it again with economic growth taking place. We’re looking for 30% returns minimum SBF, 150% in NASDAQ and again, we saw it today in NASDAQ. Really good recovery day.
[00:19:34]:
Best, best day for NASDAQ since May. What else today? Let’s, let’s, let’s, let’s move on. Let’s get about your business on this. On this Beautiful Monday again, 10 year yields are now starting to get back down toward 4% or 4.03%. A sustained move below 4% will be amazing for housing. We own housing. It’s been a, it’s not been a good investment so far. We’re very close to adding to our position.
I don’t like averaging down. Neither one of my mentors, Ted Parsons, Michael Mess, neither one like averaging down. Why put good money after bad? But every now and then in, in the right situation it does make sense. And I think in housing for these, you know, for these ets, right. I think that we’re, we’re approaching a great opportunity to average down. I think it’d be very good trade. I think one of the best. We told you as this year started that the number one trade, the number one group to own was the gold miners.
Well, they’re up 130%. They’re up 6% today. Right. That’s been the number one group. I think the number one group to own next year may well be housing. Now we’re still away from making our beginning year forecast, but keep that in mind because I think housing is about to catch fire and nothing, there will be nothing better for the economy than housing stocks. We saw it. Did you see Penny home sales hit like a seven year high last week again? No one’s talking about that.
[00:20:53]:
I think that’s very, I think, I think we have a lot of strength coming as the economy starts to broaden and this, the media maybe is forced to wake up to show what’s actually going on here. Okay. Under the hood today. These are not great internals, but we’ll take them two to one. Positive advanced decline. Both the NASDAQ and NYSE. NASDAQ up volume today was 76.4%. Very strong.
NYSE 64.6. We’ll take that as well. 52 highest lows came in almost exactly with three more highs and lows pretty much a wash there. And our sector watch today, very strong day here. Nine of 11 sectors finished higher again. This is kind of the inverse of what last week was most days. Technology and communication services both. Technology, frankly.
Communication services up 4% today. Warren Buffett’s purchase of Google. Imagine that. Imagine that came at a pretty good time. Technology up two and a Half percent today. Again, very good day here. And a commodity watch again. I talked about this a minute ago.
[00:21:56]:
Look. Gdx today up 6%. Gold miners, the junior gold miner GDXJ up 6.6% today. We have two junior gold miners in the BRE portfolio. Both were up 6% today. With big things happening, folks. For those that are with us here, just make sure you own both. Both of the, both our Junior mine, Snowline and Vista Gold.
Just make sure you’re on those. And you know, maybe at the end of the next year or something. I don’t, I don’t, I think six months from now, you know, send us a bottle of scotch or something, right? Because I think that we have very good news coming on both of these and they’ve essentially told us that’s what’s going to happen. So you know, when you get to know these companies pretty well like we like to do, you know, every now and then you just, you just pick something up, right? A little something. And I think we’ve got that in both of these. And again, this group is starting to get red hot. But it’s only starting to get red hot. I wouldn’t be surprised if we had back to back years of 150, 200% gains in, in the, in the gold miner ETF, GDX and even more so in the junior gold miners.
Because the gold ain’t going lower. Right? Gold is based. It fell, it fell. It dropped 10% in six days. That was a, one of, only of a handful of historic drops like that. And history tells us when that happens over the next two months. Gold is higher 100% of the time with an average gain of better than 10%. So we’re, you know, we’re, we’re going to.
[00:23:21]:
Let me check here. Yeah. Gold today up 56. We’re going to recapture everything that we lost goals now back to 4172, up 1.4% today. Silver even better, up 2 1/2% today at 51.20. Again we like both of these here. We’re about 80, 20 gold to silver. I frankly if it was kind of easier to trade physical gold than it is.
It’s not of course. And, and really why, why would you want to. It’s just a good time I think to probably allocate more to silver. Silver is due for a catch up move. I do expect silver to hit a hundred dollars by the end of next year. Which means, you know, I mean gold’s going to go to 6,000 next year. So you’ll make a lot of money in both of those. That’s, that’s our view.
We also focused this morning on, well, first to the rest of the commodities. Copper today up a quarter percent at $5.09 a pound. Crude oil today up 2%, 58.92. And finally Bitcoin. I. Let me get to the screen. That is not working. Yeah, we, we shared this chart with you this morning about, about bitcoin.
[00:24:33]:
Look, it’s been brutalized. There’s, there’s, there’s no two ways around it but you know, it’s back to 89,000 right now. Just above 89,000. We shared the chart this morning. Extreme oversold on steroids. It’s our most oversold reading. It’s there, the only, the only negative. That is that now we’re well below the 200 day.
So that’s a decision. I think, I think if you’re a short term trader, that is not a good thing right now. The 200 day is going to act as resistance instead of supply, a support and that’s a problem. But you know, we’re not giving up the ghost. We’re still long. Bitcoin, we’ve traded it pretty well over the years. We bought it back at 100 and just over 100,000. Like 101,000.
So we’re underwater right now, but we are, we’re staying long. Bitcoin, they’ve mined 95% of all bitcoin in existence. And unless quantum computing is going to come along and allow that the average person to hack random bitcoin accounts, which I think we’re a decade, everything I’ve read says we’re a decade away from that even being a possibility. And in the meantime, I’m sure they’ll put other firewalls and exit into place. So that can’t happen. It is a risk and it is something people talk about. But again, until then, I think, I think bitcoin over the next decade is going to a million dollars of bitcoin. That’s been our view for some time.
[00:25:51]:
And we are, we’re long. It, it is extreme oversold on steroids. And we think it represents a very good buy here. Although the technicals look ugly. I’m just going to give you both sides of the story there. Okay. All right folks, that’s it for the day. Again.
Hope you had a great day. I hope you have an even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.