In today’s episode, Kip dives right into the latest market action, breaking down the recent volatility and what it means for investors. He highlights why yesterday’s market decline wasn’t a surprise for the VRA team, given t ...
Don’t look back to the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. We weren’t with you yesterday so we missed some of the the big decline yesterday. But I think this will sound like it’s in hindsight but we started alerting to you this last about this last Thursday that each of our major indexes have hit extreme overbought levels. Now we’re not at our most overbought level. We call that extreme overbought on steroids.
That’s when all of our momentum oscillators are at extreme overbought. We’re not but we’re very close to it. And this is when bad things tend to happen. Is extreme robot. That means The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq and Rust 2000, all four of the major indexes are all trading at extreme overbought levels. So yesterday didn’t surprise us today, 160 point loss. The Dow didn’t surprise us all the internals are very good. NASDAQ finished higher on the day.
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Russ 2000 finished solid higher on the day. We think there’s much more supportive in this market than there is to be concerned about. Remember, we also came off a Trump signing of the bbb, his big beautiful bill. And it’s pretty common to see it buy the rumor, sell the news action on a day like yesterday. So not a surprise to us. You know, look, we never want to see down days. We want to be long term bulls always. But we’re not perma bulls.
We just prefer to see because being bullish is so much more fun. And yes, the markets do go up every year about 70, 72% of the time. And so it does make more sense. It’s more profitable to be a bull than it is to be a bear. But we’re not, we’re not perma bulls. We’re not perma bears. We’re not perma anything. We want to follow the market’s direction.
We’re trend followers. The market will tell you if you pay attention to it. The market will tell you what it wants to do. And today the market continues to tell us yes, even though it’s never bought, this market wants to continue going higher. We think that’s been the case for some time. We, we believe it will continue to be the case. We’ve got some good data to back that up. First of all, you’ve seen the charts, you’ve seen the data.
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Money supply continues to soar. This is extremely Bullish for risk on assets. Of course, that’s equities. And that’s also bitcoin, by the way. Also US equities fund flows into equities continues to surge. What’s happening with the retail investor has just been a story that is just almost unprecedented. The retail investors, throughout this year, even through the tariff tantrum, retail investors have been buyer, buyer, buyer. They have been the Mrs.
Watanabes of our era. They have stepped up to the plate at every decline because they got money to do it. In addition to $7.4 million trillion dollars, excuse me, sitting in money markets right now, there’s another 3.5 trillion sending in brokerage account money market funds. And that doesn’t include all the money sitting in. We talked about this a lot. It’s one of our favorite top topics, home equity. $34 trillion folks, sitting in home equity right now. All we need is a bit of help from the Fed.
And this is where Trump’s been spot on. We’ve covered this ad nauseam here. The 10 year yield today is a 4.4%. The fed funds rate is a 4.33%. Once the fed begins to act, you’ll see these rates ratchet down quickly. Once that happens in housing, you’ll see home equity fund, home equity begin to depart that it’ll go into other home purchases and it will go into the economy and certainly a lot of it will go into the stock market. This is what’s been supportive of the market all along. This is why we haven’t had those big declines post the April 7th bear market lows.
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The other reason that we remain very bullish is that the economy is just strong. The tariff confusion has not made it easy, I will give you that. There’s still a lot of questions about what’s the impact going to be on the economy, on rates, on inflation. We think at the bottom line is that this is all going to wind up being pretty much swept under the rug because the economy is going to be so strong. And remember, we’re not just talking about an economy that’s about to get strong. This economy has been strong from the time that Trump was elected. Here’s what earnings have done. Q2 earning from Q4 earnings to where we are now in Q2 earnings, Q4 earnings of last year.
Again, Trump was elected in November. So two of the three months Trump get credit for it at least. Forget the excitement again of him being president. In the fourth quarter of last year, earnings were up SB 500 earnings were up 16.9%. Even in the first quarter this year, with the tariff questions coming into play, Q1 earnings growth was 11.1%. So we believe that this, we have a lot of evidence to this that says the earnings, the analysts have cut their estimates so far. YouTube estimates right now sit at just 4.9%, folks. That is going to be ridiculously low.
Mark, Mark, take, take this into the bank. Okay? Mark my words on this one. We come out of Q2 earnings and we’re going to be looking at earnings growth of at least 8%, we think 10 to 12% for the current quarter, the one that’s just ending now. So again, that combines to tell you that stocks are cheap, that earnings are growing and that is a recipe for, for stocks moving higher. We’ll find out pretty soon, won’t we? Because we get Delta Airlines reports this week, kind of the first known big company reporting for the second quarter earnings and then we’ll get beginning next week, the big banks reporting and then it really kicks off with tech the following week. So we’re very close to being into the heart of Q2 earnings, earnings plays and again, we think it’s going to be very bullish for the market also, Tom, and this is kind of the third point because it’s been a sticking point we’ve had for some time from the birth from the bear market lows of April 7. We’ve made the comparison almost daily here for this bull market, this recovery to the recovery to the pandemic bear market of 2020. You look, you overlay a chart on top of the other and it’s almost identical.
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Both were four to five week bear markets and then when they’re over, they were over. It was a V shaped bottom and the market soared higher from what happened in 2020. Okay, after this, after they got back to all time highs. Remember, that’s just what we’ve done now. We’ve rallied now back to all time highs. But what’s happened after that in 2020 was the markets kept melting up. SPF Hunter went up another 41% in the months to come. Nasdaq surged another 70% again.
We think this is going to be a mirror image of what we saw in 2020. We do expect earnings growth to drive stocks higher again. At the end of the day, we’ve got the innovation revolution. We’ve got the roaring2020s. We got Trump 2.0 and now we do have his big beautiful bill that’s going to really help this economy move forward. I think once we get out of this tariff insanity. We had this in Trump 1.0. He loves tariffs.
He did this in the first round with mixed success. And now if you watched any of his recent press conferences, you see he is, he’s, he’s backed off from his hardline promises. He might want to come across that way but he’s just too iffy is there’s just too many ifs and buts to be hardlined. He’s basically telling countries let’s work a deal, let’s strike a deal, we can do it, let’s get this behind us which is what we think he’s going to do. And then Trump can focus over the next three and a half years of his, of his presidency on hopefully very good things that will drive the economy and the stock market much higher. That is our forecast. That is what we think is going to happen today. Under the hood again, good internals today.
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The advanced decline today again with the market that was essentially flat on the day. Dow Jones down 165. Nasdaq was up 5 points. SB 500 was flat. Again a little bit of action Russ 2000 but we’re just going to call this pretty much flat to downside action today. But you would know it from the internals today. SBF NASDAQ internals were positive by 1.5 to 1. NYSE internals positive 1.7 to 1.
We had about 140 more stocks hitting a 52 week high than 52 week low. And then for the let me do a quick refresh here because the volume was a pretty good read today. Nasdaq volume, Nasdaq volume 70. Nasdaq was up just a couple points in the day. NASDAQ up volume was better than 70% on the day for the S P500. Quick refresh a little math which is not always easy on a Tuesday in the summer it’s 63% of volume day for, for, for NYSE. So again these are very good readings after Yesterday’s were essentially 2 to 1 negative across the board. You have to see it’s a bit ugly.
Good to see a bounce back today again on a flat day. I think it tells us a lot here. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the lows are in this. Matter of fact going into Q2 earnings I would expect that we’re pretty much there right now. This is going to be a market that wants to keep melting up. That’s the trend that we’re in now. We’re in a melt up bull market. That’s the phase we’re in right now.
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We’re going to get used to this because we’re going to see a lot of this in the years to come. Just got to get rid of some of the insanity, some of the things the markets don’t care much about, talking about tariffs and then we can move forward with this big beautiful bull market. And our sector watch today, not great, not ugly. We had six sectors finished lower, five finished higher. Led to the upside by energy day. Energy stocks up 2.7% today. We’re long this group. Good to see that take place.
Materials also they higher by half percent to the downside. Consumer staples, utilities both down 1%. Financials down 910 of percent as well. But again not much accident anywhere else in our commodity watch today. Here we go. Goal today again. I’m writing this up for tomorrow by the way. Book call ratio today was elev finishing today at a 0.85.
That is people buying puts pretty quickly after one downside day. That is a bullish sign. If you’re bullish, that’s good news for you. If not, then you might have to. I think, I think it’s gonna be a tough time for bears to make money. That’s the bottom line as far as we, as far as we see it. Gold today again. I’m writing this up for tomorrow.
Look, gold and the miners have an extraordinary run again. As a reminder, GDX, the gold miner ETF is the number one performing ETF in 2025. All right. On the backs of of course this massive fire we’ve seen in gold. But they don’t go, they don’t go up every day, do they? And this is one of those days where it makes sense that they don’t pull up a chart, look at what’s happening with the US Dollar. US Dollar, which we called this by the way. We called this when Trump got elected. We told you the dollar was going to plummet because Trump wanted it to, because he wanted our imports, excuse me, our exports to be much improved really to try to even out the cheating that foreign economies do to the United States and have done does for decades.
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China throughout Europe as well. Well having a much cheaper dollar which is, look at the chart. The dollar has just been a one way train wreck lower. But again that’s what Trump wanted. That’s what we expected we’d see. We got it. But not even the dollar can keep going lower day after day. So we’ve now hit one of the most oversold levels in the dollar.
And I believe I saw decade so but it’s reached such oversold levels now that it’s probably due for a bounce. Maybe the same we’re seeing in interest rates as well, which had been ratcheting lower again. Well now we’re seeing a counter trend move. But that’s the key point here. These are not primary moves, primary trend moves, these are counter trend moves. And so that means on days like this where you have the dollar up, where you have rates up, it’s, it’s a, it’s a bearish correlation. For gold and silver. We actually saw it today in gold which is down right at 1% today, down $33 an ounce at 3309.
That puts gold right at 200 an ounce below all time highs. We can make that up in about two days time. Silver today actually flat on the day at 36.91. Again we love this group here. We have for a long time continue to love it. We’re buying this dip on, we’re buying this group on dips every time. We’ve been doing it for some time now. Copper today bouncing back strongly.
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Copper today up 9% again. What’s going to happen with Dares? What’s going to happen in global economy? We think this is extremely bullish for the global economy. For Dr. Copper up 9.7% today at 551 a pound. And copper like silver goes in everything. What else today? Crude oil today again bouncing back. Energy stocks were up big. Crude oil only up today by 20 cents a barrel.
Last trade here is 68, $13 a barrel. $68.13 a barrel. Sorry. And then finally of the day, bitcoin again. Charlie’s fantastic. There’s a lot of rumors, a lot of speculation over the weekend because so many billions of dollars in bitcoin have come off the full storage, if you will. Now they’ve, they’ve hit the market. Not that they’ve been sold but they’re being placed into wallets if you will, and exchanges where they could be sold again.
All this is trackable. Well, all bitcoin’s done since that news broke is, is go higher when that news first broke. Tyler, I’m talking over the weekend. Bitcoin’s in the mid one is like 1075 and all it did from that news forward is move higher. Now if all that bitcoin comes into the market. Yeah, it’s going lower. The chart looks good. We think we’re again we’re still in a, in a, in a mega growth phase for bitcoin.
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The demand and demand is really that’s driving the show here. Limited supply, massive Demand. Last trade Bitcoin 108,732. All right, folks, that’s it for today. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.
In today’s episode, Kip dives into a jam-packed discussion on the current state of the markets, the ongoing geopolitical tensions influencing oil prices, and why he believes we're witnessing the start of a generational bull market. After a strong close in the markets—with all major indices up and the VIX continuing its downward slide—Kip shares his perspective on why the relentless negativity from mainstream media, especially surrounding the US-Iran conflict, is actually a bullish signal for investors. He highlights the resilience of key sectors like semiconductors and technology, breaks down the momentum behind Bitcoin and emerging cryptos such as TAO, and explains why recent market dips are a gift for those with a long-term and optimistic outlook. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast! On this episode, host Kip Herriage dives into what’s been a challenging week for the markets, examining everything from geopolitical uncertainty and its impact on oil prices to the pulse of investor sentiment and Federal Reserve actions. Kip Herriage shares sharp insights on the recent correction in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, the effect of the ongoing war on global markets, and what history tells us about rates during wartime. You’ll hear why extreme fear among investors, record-level put buying, and oversold technical indicators might actually be setting the stage for a major market rebound.
In today's episode, Tyler Herriage breaks down another volatile day on Wall Street, offering his signature optimism even as markets face downward pressure. From big moves in oil and energy to the seasonal dynamics of this traditionally bullish period, you'll get a behind-the-scenes look at how headlines, and not fundamentals, are shaping investor sentiment. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
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