In today's episode, Kip dives into the market strong start to the week, highlighting another round of all time highs. Despite some notable losses today for Bitcoin, Tesla, and others, Kip discusses the seasonally positive timeframe we're in and why the VRA expects to see the market rally into year-end. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Monday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Hope your weekend was fantastic as well. Well, we get off to a great start today. Lot to celebrate here. Also some strange action on today too.

Bitcoin, we’ll talk about this. Bitcoin fell out of bed today. Tesla, one of our favorite holdings today gave up some of its gains. But still, I mean, we’re talking about a stock that’s up, you know, 100% in the last couple of months and the miners are down today. And these, these are positions that, you know, as much as the market is up today, don’t like seeing that. We’ll talk about that a little bit more. We also had all time highs across the board. Dow Jones S & P 500 and for the first time since 2021, all time high in the small caps.

Russell 2000. The the trannies today up a big 2%. They’re right at also at all time highs. Rates plummeted lower today. And again, listen, let’s cover the markets first. I’m going to come back to this because it’s a pet peeve of mine and Tyler’s is these perma bears that are just it does not matter how great things are going and they are. It doesn’t matter that we got the right guy as president again. And we do.

[00:01:17]:
They’re going to find a reason to be bearish. The world is going to end and they’re certain of it. Though what they’re really doing, of course, is they’re list builders. All right. So don’t fall for their trap. They’re not even an investor. So again, I wish more people knew about this. First of all, the market today, Dow Jones today up 440 points again.

Big day today. All time high up 1%. SPF hundred up three tenths of 1% again, Russ 2000 small caps all time high up 1.4%. Chart looks fantastic. And NASDAQ up 3. 10 of 1% as well. This is a great setup. Look, if you’ve been with us here, you know that we’ve been saying for two years, really that this is a meltable market.

It has been. We’ve been right about that. We really started pounding the table about a week before the election when we told you that the markets were going to start discounting a Trump win. The smart money was going to be buying in advance of the knowledge, at least the markets we believed that Trump was going to win. And again, that’s exactly what’s played out as well. The rally we’re seeing now is the fact that the markets are figuring out what we’ve been talking about here. This is a melt up bull market that’s going a lot higher. The real problem is there aren’t enough bulls.

[00:02:26]:
People aren’t bullish enough anyway. We have a holiday shortened week this week. No trading on Thursday, of course, for Thanksgiving here in the US And a half day of trading on Friday. But still, this is a very bullish seasonal timeframe here again, as we’ve been covering here with you often, we’ve seen, in addition to seasonality being positive, we’ve seen great rallies throughout late in the day. We saw it every day last week, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday where the market was down early and then ral strong. This is a, this is a bullish setup. These are tells that tell you the market wants to go higher. But I’m still seeing a lot of this online.

Again, not just the perma bears, seeing a lot of people that are not buying this and they’re like, you know, stocks are in a bubble and the markets are due for a big correction. You know, we hear this all the time, including from a lot of our subscribers that just have a hard time committing new money to the market. But the, the truth of the matter is we’re not, we’re not even close to a topic. I mean not, we’re nowhere close to a top. This is not a bubble. The markets aren’t even overbought. Here’s, here’s how we know that. As of Friday’s close, we’ll run the numbers again tonight.

Only 63.2% of the S P 500 is above the 50 day moving average. That’s not big, by the way. When that reading, it’s a 63.2. When that reading gets over 90%, we will start taking some profits. Now as far as the percent above the 200 day, we’re only at 72.2% again until we hit over 90% above the 50 day and 200 day moving average. The S500. This market’s got room to run. We are light years away from overbought levels.

[00:04:07]:
So, you know, make sure you make sure you pay attention to the facts instead of feelings and the emotions that are out there. You know, people that are just, I think they want the market to crash. They are, there are certain people that want things to blow up, you know, and I’m just not, I’m an optimist. So I’m not built that Way don’t understand that. But I know that if that’s your mindset, you are going to have a real problem making money in the market because you’ll always be positioned the wrong way. At the first sign of trouble, you will be selling, not adding to or initiating new positions because the fear factor is so high, you’re convinced the world is about to end, folks. That’s why we use diversification. That’s why you have positions in gold and silver and bitcoin and various other asset classes, of course, housing, real estate and in various sectors.

If you have a properly diversified portfolio, the market can really crack lower and you’re fine because you have other positions that will rise as the broad market goes down. So again, that’s just, that’s something we practice here at the vra in addition to the stats I just gave you. As a reminder, 11 out of 12 VRA investing system screens. This is our proprietary market timing system. 11 to 12 screens are bullish. That’s tied for our highest readings. And I’ve had this over in use over 30 years. So again, we are not, I’m just telling you straight up, there are no signs of a market that is overbought and ready to go lower.

This is a multiple market. We’re now entering a very seasonally bullish period. Of course, December is a very good month. I believe in a presidential year it’s the second best month of the year. In normal years, it’s the third best month of the year. And this is also a very good month for small caps. Again, all time high for the first time since 2021. Excuse me, first time since 2021.

[00:05:57]:
Today the small caps at an all time high. Yeah, a little golf clap for that. We were waiting on that one. Right. And again, this is now going to be a breakout move for the small caps. We believe it’s a great month for small caps as well. The Santa Claus rally tends to vote very well for small caps. Animal spirits are back.

We talked about this with you last week. I’m starting to see more Wall street analysts talk about this, which is a good thing because they should be. We’ve been talk telling you about the fact that animal spirits are returning for two years. Again. One of our five megatrends in the big bribe was the red pilling of America. It is not just happening, it’s really happening. It’s not just happening in the US it’s happening globally now. It’s going to take longer for countries like the UK Right.

Where free speech is no longer a Thing and they’re jailing people for the social media posts. Can you believe this? Over 3,000 people in the UK have already been jailed for social media posts that offended people. Right? These weren’t threats against someone’s life, these were social media posts that offended someone. And they’re putting the locking, trying them and locking them up and putting them in jail. Tommy Robinson I believe, just got 18 months for his, they have this point system. Anyway, this is a guy that, he’s a little radical but the thing to locking him up for are words, okay? And so again, but UK and other countries throughout Europe and around the world, they’re being red pilled as well. This is a movement book. Understand this, we are early in this.

[00:07:42]:
This is a major trend that is developing here. And again, as most things do, they’re great. Starting in the U.S. right? We’re the last home for First Amendment, Second Amendment free market capitalism. It’s us. If Trump had lost, we wouldn’t have been able to say that. That’s why this election is so big. We know this.

Right? But the trend that people are just now starting to pick up on and this is what’s going, trust me when I tell you this exact topic is what’s going to drive the market significantly higher. Remember, our target’s been Dow Jones 100,000 by 2030, we’re 40, what are we, 55,000 points away? When we first said it, the dow was at 24,000. So we’ve already almost doubled since we first said this, you know, and now the Nasdaq is at 19,000, is going to 40,000 plus. And again, the rally is not going to stop at 2030. Again, we’ve been making the case this is a multi decade move. It’s a, this is a generational event and a generational bull market for, for all of us. And again, it’s spreading globally. So people, again, people just are not bullish enough.

Animal spirits are returning. What that means is as. Tyler, I covered you last week, the shackles have been removed. Trump is going get ready for government that’s going to have pure laissez faire business style. Those words haven’t been used very often to describe any U.S. government, even Republican presidents. Right? Because in often cases Republicans are just as bad. The rhinos are just as bad as the Democrats because they’re all, they are, after all, members of the uniparty.

[00:09:24]:
Well again, America at its best is a business, is a, is a business model. That is laissez faire. It means that the government’s going to get out of your way. They won’t. They will not be a determining factor when you do business. As long as you know there are lines they must be colored inside of. If you get out of those lines, you’re going to have a problem. But those lines are much broader, much wider than they used to be under past, however many presidents we’ve had in the United States.

And so now, if you’re a businessman, businesswoman, you’re going to have the ability to go for it. Understand this. The government’s getting out of our way. Let the best man, best woman, best company win. For if you’re an Alpha, you consider yourself an Alpha, you’re going to be euphoric with what you see going forward. I know these are grandiose statements, but again, this is not new for us. We’ve been talking about this for two years and we’ve been right. And so just understand that we’re going to continue to be right.

We’ve got this macro topic nailed here. And so again, if you always wanted to have the ability to start a company and as long as you are better than the other guy to go make money to really, again, maybe, maybe in 10 years you want to retire. Well, you have an opportunity now if you want to blow and go 24, 7 to make as much money as possible and retire in 10 years, you’re never going to get better opportunity than what is being put in front of you right now. Now we got to get to Trump first. Yeah, it’s not been inaugurated. That’s got to happen. But you can see what’s happening in the markets here as the markets continue to melt up. That again, this is going, I think 20, 25 and beyond is going to be an exceptional time to be in business, exceptional time to be an investor and really just to be a citizen of the country.

[00:11:15]:
And again, this is spreading globally because countries that don’t pick up on the spot and start giving the people back the power, they’re going to be left in our dust even worse than they are now. You’ve probably seen some of the performance charts of Europe and their equity markets and their business compared to their economies are shrinking. Their stock market is losing every year to the United States by 5, 10, 15%. Right. And that’s because socialism is a failed business experiment. It’s designed to give the elite the power, but that only works for so long, and then your economies begin to melt down. So foreign countries had better figure this out and they better figure it out quick. The ones that do will be Winners.

They’ll be the winners in their continent. But they better pick it up quick because again, we’re going to leave them in our dust. If you’re an American business owner, American investor, I don’t know you can be bullish enough. This is an extraordinarily bullish setup for the top down, for us Companies and for investors. Sorry, I got my soapbox there. Want to make sure people understand this point because you’re not really hearing it anywhere else. At least we haven’t been until a little more recently when again, a few analysts started to talk about animal spirits and what that means. It’s been so long again since we’ve had this setup.

I think people don’t know what that means. They’re not familiar with it, especially if you’re younger. Just remember, you know, in the 1995-2000.com bull market, you know, I was right in the middle of that. Took three companies public. I mean we, if we weren’t making our clients 5 to 10% a month, they were looking for another financial advisor, right? And so we were forced to find the winners. But we didn’t know we had our hands on. I’m talking about this a lot. You know, I, we didn’t really know until we were about three years into it that like, okay, this is not a fad.

[00:13:11]:
All right, so these Internet stocks are real. This thing is going to work. But you know, we now, we see this coming in advance, we’re ready for it, we’re hitting it as hard as we can and just stay locked in. Because that’s what happened when people started to understand that the 1995-2000.com bull market was real and going to continue. It was much like what we’ve entered now. The shackles are removed, the economy and the markets are. The gas tanks are full, right. It’s pedal of the metal time.

And so we’re going to make sure that our subscribers are locked and loaded to be able to make as much money as you want to, because this is a lot. This is a bull market of a lifetime. Absolutely convinced of it. And this is a great time to make a lot of money, help a lot of people. That’s what you want to do and that is the purpose for it, right? Make a lot of money, help a lot of people. That’s a win win right there. What else here? Let’s talk about bitcoin for a minute and then we’ll get into the internals and that kind of thing. Look, we told you last week that Bitcoin was hitting on our viewer investing system, was hitting extreme overbought on steroids.

This is our most overbought designation, right? And you see what’s happened since. Got within a couple of hundred bucks of 100,000. Couldn’t got three within 320 bucks of 100,000. Just couldn’t quite get through it. That’s because the buyers were exhausted. They tried, they tried, they tried over the weekend, couldn’t do it. And now look at the end result. Last trade now 93,600.

[00:14:50]:
So Bitcoin’s taking a bit of a tumble. But again, based on our investing system, this is not a surprise to us. This is about what we expected. Now here’s what we expect to see happen next. The longer that it takes for bitcoin to get through a hundred thousand, whether it takes another few days or a week or two, the longer that it takes, the more fuel is going to be in the, in the tank for this move to really blast through 100,000 and keep going. Because if it happens again like it almost just did, we’ll hit 100,000. And then here are the short sellers coming, hitting it, right? The buyers are exhausted and the move lower will take place again. Instead.

We want to see this coiling. First of all, we want the weekends to get out, right? The weekends are selling now that, that may mean this, this move is going to go a little lower. We make it back into the 80 thousands, okay, maybe back to like 85, 88. I don’t really think we will because there’s so many buyers coming online. Serious money, by the way. But the easy money, okay, the hot money, that’s what’s selling now because they realize they’re, they’re underwater. They may have barging calls coming up, okay, because of these, you know, again, these positions are marginal, okay? And so, you know, these, these things can tend to bury people. But the longer that this coiling action takes place, the more that it will act like a springboard to higher prices.

And I’ll just repeat here what you’ve heard me say many times. Once bitcoin gets through a hundred thousand and bases at 100,000, 100,000 becomes. Instead of resistance becomes the new support level. The speed of the move to 150,000 is going to make head spin. 100,000 is a big number, but we need to do it in a healthy fashion, right? And I also just tell you that when we get an announcement for the first time that a major government or a like the U.S. right? And Trump of course is said he wants to back a reserve bitcoin fund when that happens and also when you also see, by the way, this is going to happen as well, sovereign wealth funds, you’re going to see news that other governments, not just El Salvador, right, not just the US Other governments and major sovereign wealth funds are going to start buying bitcoin. When this news happens, the move to 250,000 will make your head spin. Look, we’ve been right on bitcoin.

[00:17:22]:
We told you it was getting under thousand by year end. I think the cycle move high, cycle move high is going to be 250,000. I could be on the low side. I just know that look last week in extreme robot levels, that is, that’s when bad things happen. But now here’s your opportunity for looking to initiate or add two positions. I have no problem whatsoever buying here. Not I’m not quite adding yet, but buying at 93,000 where 93.7where it is now, I’d have no problem with someone new buying it because it’s just not going to matter in a few months to a year from now when it’s double that price. Okay, okay.

Let’s move on to the internals today. Sorry, I got a little scratchy voice today. The internals today were good again. We had a good day today. Internals, quick refresh here. Nasdaq even though Nasdaq only finished up a few points today, NASDAQ internals were solid. Two to one advanced decline for NASDAQ. Also two to one volume for NASDAQ.

Both positives. NYSE 2 1/2 to one positive advanced decline. NYSE 2 1/2, to one positive for volume. These are very good internals. We also had check this out. Let me just do some math here. I want to get this right. This is a big, this is a big, this is some of the best reads we’ve had in a while.

[00:18:45]:
We had A thousand and fifteen stocks hit a new 52 week high to just 98 hitting a new 52 globe 10 to 1 positive 1015 stocks hitting a new 50. Kai just 98 hitting a new 52 week low. Very good internals today. Sector watching this because the market’s going higher. A sector watch today also very good. Nine of 11 sectors finished hot on the day led to the upside by real estate as rates plummet again. These perma bears trying to scare people into thinking rates are not going to keep going up, rates are going to go lower. They will continue to go lower.

That’s what a Trump economy will do. Trump wants lower rates because he got to get rid of our debt. He got to replace it with, with lower yielding, not higher yielding debt. Trump’s new secretary, Treasury Secretary Bessett. I gotta tell you, we like this guy. The markets clearly like this guy. Now I know there are people saying, well, he worked with George Soros. Yep, you know he did.

That means he learned from the best at how the system worked. I have absolutely no problem with that. We just don’t want to see him practice the same things as Treasury Secretary. I want to read this to you. When Trump introduced Scott Besson as the Treasury Secretary. I want to read this paragraph because this is Trump in a nutshell of what he’s going to accomplish economically in his next four years. On the eve. This is Trump on the eve of our great country’s 250th anniversary.

[00:20:19]:
Scott Besant will help me usher in a new golden age for the United States as we fortify our position as the world’s leading economy. The center of innovation and entrepreneurialism, the destination for capital. Why always and without question maintaining the US Dollar as a reserve currency of the world. That’s it, folks. That’s it. If you understand what he just said, we’re entering a golden age. The United States. This is what Trump’s committed to.

He loves gold, by the way, doesn’t he? By the way, in Trump’s first term, gold went up 50%. I expect it’ll do double that in his next term. In this term just it’s there any number of reasons but gold will keep going up. As we formed our position as the world’s leading economy, of course we already are, was to fortify it. The center of innovation and entrepreneurialism. That’s what Trump’s all about. Destination for capital. Destination for capital.

We already are the red pilling of America, the animal spirits coming back. This is going to make every other country jealous of what we have. All investors want to own our stocks because our stocks will keep going up while theirs do not. That makes us destination capital. And when it comes to. Listen, this is such a common sense. It’s a common sense point I’m going to make to you. And when I tell you this, you’re going to go, of course you’re right kid.

[00:21:40]:
You usually right. You’re really right on this one. Okay, our 10 year yield now is almost at 4.5% down to now 4.256%. Let’s call it 4.3 to round up. Our 10 year yield is 4.3% guess what? Germany’s 10 year old is 2%. Just over 2%. Our yields are twice as high on the same denomination 10 year notes. Now why you got its name with US debt be more risky.

It’s not right. Get the full faith and credit of U.S. debt of the U.S. government. But our yields are twice what they are in Germany. Makes no sense whatsoever, does it? And that’s because the ECB is keeping rates lower. Well, what’s about to happen now is we’re going to have a Federal Reserve that will be forced to play ball with Scott Besant and Trump and be forced to make sure rates go lower. Rates should not be where they are.

Inflation is disappearing. There is no reason, even a strong economy is not a good enough reason for rates to be higher. That makes zero sense whatsoever. Right. What we want to see is make sure we don’t have inflation. And with Trump back on board, that ain’t going to be the case. Matter of fact, if we told you within two to three years, maybe four, but we think within two to three years we’re going to have pure deflation in America. And the innovation revolution will play a large role in that.

[00:23:06]:
But President Trump will do the rest. So look, we’re not going to have issues with Scott Besson as Treasury Secretary and the people that Trump is putting in positions of power. Right. These are not the Janet Yellens of the world. Right. And if, if Jay Powell didn’t play ball, he won’t be there long either. Even though he loves to say there’s no legal precedent for making me leave yet. We don’t need a legal one.

It’s called you’re gone, buddy. Or other things will start to happen in your life you won’t care for very much. We got a new sheriff in town, folks. Trump is not messing around, not dicking around this time. He’s not worried about another term. He’s an accomplished stall. In four years, probably in two, I think he could do it in two. And he’s played golf a lot if he wants to.

Yeah, we’re very bullish. But this statement from Trump about Besant could not be more bullish and get the very end maintaining the US Dollar as a reserve currency of the world. We understand the importance of this, do we not? Whoever is king has the world’s reserve currency. If you don’t have that, you are in a world of hurt. You answer to the leader, to the king. Right? Right. Now anybody that wants to do business in the United States has to first convert their money to US Dollars. Certainly for all commodities, for oil, et cetera.

[00:24:27]:
And again, having the world’s reserve currency allows us to do so many things other countries cannot do. Again, the power to keep our rates lower, the power to keep printing money. If you want to just keep printing money ad nauseam, we can do that as well. If you want to eliminate income taxes, have a tariff system and a money printing system, we could do that too because we have the world’s reserve currency. Not that, not that we’re going to, but wouldn’t that be great if we did? But again, the point being this statement from Trump, this should be framed, this will be framed in my office. So I do not forget what the macro goals of Trump are going to be because this is it right here. Very, very bullish. Okay, where are we? We’re on the sector watch, I think when I got a little distracted.

Let’s go back to that again. 911 sector is higher. Real estate up 1 for 2% again as rates go lower. Tyler told me that I think housing stocks hit an all time high today, which I, I did not catch that. Tyler doesn’t listen to me. These, Yeah, a housing all time high today. Again, the trainees, right. At an all time high, as we told you a minute ago.

Small caps, Russ, 2000s 500 and Dow Jones, I think he said. Also we had four sectors hit an all time high today. So let’s get used to more of that. To the downside. Energy again, energy was down. Oil was down today because look, we’re probably not going to have war with Russia and Ukraine. World War three may not start from there. Let’s continue to pray that’s the case.

[00:25:57]:
Also, Hezbollah and Israel may be reaching some kind of peace agreement. Again, Trump gets elected and these good things start happening. Right? So again, that means the geopolitical risk, that was in oil and in gold, right? Gold today down 3%. Oil down 2%. Again, this is this, if you own these assets, it’s not what you want to see, but the reasons for the move have to make you pretty excited. In our commodity watch today, again, not, not good for gold. Gold today down 87. Basically gave back all the gains from last week on geopolitical risk down 3.1% today at 2650.

We’re still only $140 worth of all time high. Silver is today down, also down just over 3% at $30.78 an ounce. Copper today up 3 pennies a pound at 4.16 a pound. Crude oil again down 3% today. Down $2 a barrel. 69.07. And finally on the day, let’s give you a fresh quote. Bitcoin.

Now, last trade, 94,000. We’ve covered that just to ad nauseam, haven’t we? All right, folks, I always appreciate you listening. Hope you had a great demonite. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.