In today's episode, Kip discusses the latest market movements, highlighting another strong day with some impressive rebounds. He covers Nvidia’s recently announced earnings, predicting a potential rally despite a minor after-hours dip. Kip also discusses the critical role of semiconductors in the current bull market, Bitcoin's relentless march toward $100,000, and why the upcoming period might be highly favorable for investors. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back to the market is closed. Good Wednesday afternoon everyone. Kip Herriage here with the Daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a great day today. Big day today. Another big comeback today in the market. Saw it yesterday, thought again today. That’s a, that’s the kind of pattern you want to see in a strong bull market and we’re certainly seeing it, see it time and time again today.

Of course, the big, the big today after the close Nvidia announced earnings and we’ll cover that in some detail here. I would say right now it is pretty much in line with what the market, at least what the markets thought. The stock is down after hours by about 2%. It’s fluctuated from flat to down 4% and typically Nvidia is a next day stock. That’s when the buyers really start coming in. I would expect there’ll be a rally in the stock tomorrow. Talk a little bit about those numbers here in a moment as well. Also without question, at least based on repeating patterns that have worked not only in this bull market, but in every bull market since the birth of quantitative easing in 2008.

[00:01:01]:
It’s the semiconductors. We’ve been talking about this a lot here. The action is looks, the action here in the semis should be indicative and should be leading to a rally from these levels. That’s how oversold we are. Unless, unless again, unless it’s a personality change for this bull market. This market has broadened considerably. Tyler, and I’m just talking about this in some detail in our pre podcast meeting. And the fact that the generals, right the, the Mag 7 outside of Tesla, the Mag 7 have not been leading the semis have not been leading.

But yet look at the market. It’s broadening, it’s continuing to hit all time highs. That’s what the semis folks down 15% from their July 11th all time high. If you just told me at the time, you told me and Tyler at the time that the market would be essentially at all time highs with the semi still 50% below their July 11 all time highs, I would not have believed it. But that again is a testament to the strength of this bull market. That’s the takeaway. I think that as investors we should know here and we should have here. But again we also have some bonus things to think about.

We are in the best three months of the year. We’re now about to enter. We’re in a kind of a weird period now for November. Historically there’s a few days here where the market Tends to be a little weak. Tried to do it yesterday, tried to do it again today. But we get into the final days of November into December. Then we’re talking about the Santa Claus rally and the, you know, the rally into the first week or so of January. So this should be, this should be a good time to be in the market so we can get through the next couple days without a bunch of hiccups.

[00:02:40]:
This should be a very bullish time to be in the markets. That’s what the markets are telling us now. We have the same leadership that we’re seeing. Bitcoin is now leading. It just won’t stop extreme verbought and it just keeps going up. There’s a magnet to 100,000 as we’ve been talking about here. Right now just under a 90, just under 95,000 right now. Hit another all time high today.

Last trade here, 94,300. Let’s start with the market first and we’ll come back to all these stories again, big rally today. The Dow rally close to 400 points today off the lows to finish up 139 points. That’s three tenths of 1%. The Dow was our leader on the day. SVF hundred was flat on the day. Russ 2000 essentially flat. Again these are flat to positive.

They were up just not much to speak of. And NASDAQ was slightly lower but again NASDAQ also had big declines earlier today and then those reversed and almost finished unchanged in the day, finishing down just 21 points on the day. Again all eyes on Nvidia. And now that this story is behind us for the quarter with Nvidia, we start thinking about the future. And let’s cover a little bit of the fact facts of this story. As we’ve as you’ve heard us say any number of times, it’s not the news that matters as much as it is the stock’s reaction to that news. That’s the tell. That’s what we watch.

That’s what’s most important. But the news itself of course is big as well. And here’s for the believe it or not, as Tyler said yesterday, we’re still, this is still third quarter earnings reports. Nvidia just reports very late. But this is our, this was for the third quarter again as I, as I speak right now, shares down 2% and the after hours they came in revenue just over $35 billion versus estimates of 33 billion. So they only beat on estimates for revenue by 2 billion. That’s tongue in cheek. Revenues grew $0.81.

[00:04:33]:
It came in $0.81 per share versus estimate of $0.75. And then going forward, fourth quarter, they expect 37.5 billion plus or minus 2% in Q4 sales. And fourth quarter also implies year to year growth of about 70% a year. Now that’s a slowdown. Remember a year ago they were talking about growth of 265%. Now we’re down to about 70%. So the story is changing. But I think one of the key points here, here is that we’ve got to get these new chips.

This has really been a bit of a delay here. You know, they’re still set. The hopper of course is the current chip doesn’t like hotcakes, can’t, you know, can’t meet demand. And there have been some supply constraints but now they’re transitioning to the Blackwell. This is their new most badass chip. And they are, they are now in full production but have not begun full shipments. However, those shipments have started this quarter and will ramp up significantly as we enter 2025. As Jensen Wong, the CEO said, we’re still in just the beginning of the AI boom.

Dan Ives said that this is the. They should put this earnings report in the Louvre in Paris. That’s how good this was. And that they also, by the way, Dan Ives has been a hyper bull on this story. He’s been exactly right. The best analyst on Wall street for tech stocks of this, this boom cycle. They also made the point that demand is outstripping supply by 15 to 1. 15 to 1.

[00:06:11]:
Not many companies can say that if ever. And this, if I’m in Canada, this is kind of a similar to a bitcoin story. Bitcoin is the best supply demand story of any of our lifetimes because of the limited supply. 21 billion bitcoin and then they cut it off. It’s going to take a long time to get there. But again, every four years that production gets halved. But we hear about 50 to 1 demand to supply for Nvidia. It really does put things in perspective.

And now this, the story we think is going to be most important as Nvidia starts to matter less and less as a can you believe what they just did Story because the numbers are falling comparatively. Right. It’s a broadening action that’s taking place now. The fact that we’re still in the first inning of the innovation revolution as we’ve called it and that this is likely going to go on for a decade plus. We’re now getting ready to start hearing stories about New companies, right? And they have, they’ll have new innovation, whether it’s a ship company or just a tech company. As you know, we think Tesla is that story because of what they’re going to be doing in the next several years, beginning really in next year with the Cyber Cab and the completely autonomous vehicles and the new mid sized car, small sized car, I guess it’s going to be 25 to 30,000. This is essentially pricing their competition out of the business. And that’s what’s significant about Tesla.

The last quarter report, even though they had aggressive price cuts, they were able to still increase their margins. That scared the, you know what, out of every EV company on the planet because it became very clear if they can do this with more expensive vehicles, what are they going to be able to do when they really get these small vehicles into production. And then they have the new revenue stream from the Cyber Cab. And now we start thinking about the future, right, With Optimus and robotics, with the energy storage side, you’ve got, you’ve got essentially Ford and you can throw AI in as well. AI kind of powers everything they’re doing. You can essentially say in addition to the EV division, there are four other divisions that Tesla has that within five years should each be worth worth $1 trillion each. The whole company’s worth 1.1 trillion now. So you see that’s, we do think Tesla is the next Nvidia and I think that’s the stock we’re going to continue to focus on here, along with the Bitcoin and new stories as they come around.

[00:08:49]:
You know, we don’t own Nvidia outright, but we do own it as part of our ETF that we own soxl, which has not been performing. I’ll talk about that more in a second as well. But Nvidia is the number one position in Soxville again, the three time leveraged etf. Nvidia now is back to the number one position with leverage. That probably means that Nvidia makes up roughly 20 to 25% of Soxhel and we think that’s really where that should be. But they have an internal model, they don’t make it public. They only tell you what their largest positions are. And now Nvidia is back to the largest position in SOXL again, the three time leveraged ETF for everybody, by the way, I’ve got to mention for all, everyone that has an interest lost Soldier Oil and Gas is having their next Zoom meeting tonight at 8pm Eastern.

We included that link today. Looking forward to that update. Very exciting operational and business updates. I think they’re going to share us tonight. We’re now back into the lance formation. This is where all the big shows came from. That big gas flare we had of 50 to 100ft and all the, the pressure we had that almost blew us out of the hole. Don’t be talking about that tonight we’re back into that formation.

That’s 8:00 tonight. 8:00 Eastern Standard time. Probably won’t be more than about 30 minute Zoom but really looking forward to it. Okay, let’s talk for a second about the semis because again it’s not just Nvidia, right? The semis. If you look at the chart, we share in these charts all week because we’re now looking at what looks to me like a coiled spring in the semis we’re getting, we’re building a long base. It’s also a triangle pattern and SMH we use non leveraged ETFs for our charting purposes. And so that’s SMH that we’re using. And if you look at it though, it’s got a big triangle pattern.

[00:10:46]:
It’s going to break one way or the other. You know. Right now SMH is with only within about 2, 2 and a half dollars a share from its 200 day moving average. It’s also reaching over heavily oversold levels now. So this is, you know, slowly but surely worked off its overbought levels. And now we’re. What’s key though is in July when the, the market is tech had a shakeout. The semis really had their shakeout.

The SMH, the Semi ETF fell a pretty massive 28%. 28% bear market in three weeks. That’s a lot of damage that was done to the semis in a short period of time. And that’s when stories started breaking about problems with some of Nvidia’s competition. Possibly some, some, some lag time in shipments for Nvidia with the Blackwell etc. And that’s when this group started weakening. Even today the, the semis are 15 below their July 11th all time high. What’s interesting about that is that Somehow again the Mag 77 stocks have been also trading sideways.

This market has refused to go down. That is significant broadening. I’ll tell you this, if you, if you’re bear and you see this market going up in the face of leadership that’s not leading matter of fact leadership, that’s been a drag on the broad market. There’s only one thing you can say and that is you’re screwed. Your bears are screwed. Because we’ve made it through the rocky period for the max 7 and for the semis. These should now begin to lead, right? They should now begin to lead and that will. This likely sets the stage for the next dramatic move higher in the markets.

[00:12:36]:
Again, we’re in the best months of the year and so it’s a great setup assuming that we start Getting leadership from Mag7 and the semis as we expect that we will. Let’s take a look under the hood today. I’m going to drink the water. Internals today were were not great but not horrible either. We had quick refresh Vance. Decline was only slightly negative for Nasdaq. That’s down about 200 more stocks declining than advancing. Same thing with NYSE.

200 more stocks declining than advancing. Volume today Solidly positive for NASDAQ 2 and a half to be 1 and a half to 1. Positive for volume on Nasdaq. Also slightly positive for volume on NYSE. We also had today very, very, very close 52 week highs to lows. Just slightly more 52 week lows than highs. But again very very close. There in our sector watch today, again same kind of picture we had.

Six sectors finished higher, four finished lower. Excuse me, five finished lower. Not really much either way. Health care up 1%. Energy up 1% to the downside considered discretionary, down a half percent. That’s all the damage that was done in our commodity watch today. Gold continues to surge up $23 an ounce today. That’s 8/10 of 1%.

[00:14:06]:
That’s a 2654. The miners were slightly down today. I look for that pause not to last very long. Silver down 32 cents an ounce at $30.93 an ounce. Copper today up one penny a pound at 4.15 a pound. Crude oil again, quiet day here. Down 25 cents a barrel at 68.77. And finally the day Bitcoin again it’s can’t stop, won’t stop.

It’s got a again this the story is my entire career. Stocks that go to 90 almost always. Matter of fact, I can’t think of one that hasn’t. Okay. I’ve been trying to research it. I can’t remember one stock that went to 90 that did not go to 100. There’s a magnet to 100 once that happens. And so that also applies I believe to bitcoin which is at 94,000.

We started telling you this when it hit 90. We expected 100 that wouldn’t that has not changed. The question is going to be what happens at 100? That’s, that’s my, that’s my take on this. Because we are hitting extreme overvault levels on bitcoin. So if we were to get a blast up to a hundred thousand, I would say that I would expect, I would expect some weakness. I would expect the new base to be, I don’t know, maybe 93, 94, 95. Hard to say at this point. Of course, we need to have that trading action first.

[00:15:22]:
But I think longer term, when bitcoin is over a hundred thousand, let’s say, let’s say I’m right. Let’s say we have A shakeout at 100 and Bitcoin now gets back, back over 100 and 100 becomes the base. I think we’re in for another big explosive move higher. I think there’s going to be a. I think it’s going to have a character effect on people. I think it’s going to have a. I think it’s going to have a bullish effect on people when they see that, okay, bitcoin actually hit a hundred thousand and now it’s staying above it. I think that’s going to set up the next exciting move higher.

I doubt this is going to take long to get to 150. I think this move is going to take place very fast. It may happen by year end. I would not surprise you folks because again, the demand is certainly limited there. And now the buyers, the big buyers are finally showing up. And we’ve yet to hear outside of El Salvador, Salvador. We’ve yet to hear of one government that is buying bitcoin. That’s going to happen with governments.

It’s going to happen with sovereign wealth funds as well. It’s just a matter of time. So I think this explosiveness of this move is frankly still ahead of us. We are big time bulls. Again, it’s overbought right now. I’d have to tell you, based in our system, we wouldn’t buy it here. I’d wait for a shakeout at 100 probably. But how many other people are thinking just like me? Yeah.

[00:16:47]:
So again, the bottom line is it’s not whatever you do, it’s not a sell signal. At minimum, it’s a reason to hold. And then I think you’re ready to buy once we get over 100 and stay over 100. All right, folks, that’s it for today. I always appreciate you listening. Hope you had a great day, an even better night. We’ll see back to you again tomorrow after the close.