In today's episode, Kip breaks down this week's intricate dynamics of the current market landscape, emphasizing signs that suggest potential movements based on economic data leaks and interest rate trends.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the Daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Big night tonight, right? We got the debate tonight. Of course, we can already assume that the Harris team Harris has, team uniparty, team deep state has had the questions probably for about a week. So she’s had exactly what she needs to prepare for it. The question is, is it even going to matter? You know, let’s all, I know we’ll all be watching and we’ll reconnect again tomorrow about it.

But looking forward to the fireworks tonight. And I think, I think Trump will dismantle heroes tonight. You know, I think in the same way that Ron DeSantis dismantled Gavin Newsom in their debate on Fox, he just destroyed him and he did it with facts, right. He caught him on everything. And that’s what I believe Trump needs to do tonight. Very professional. Just dismantle her on policy and Trump wins this. Polls are heading the right direction now.

[00:01:06]:
We got to that. We have to leave to the gods and see the election gods and see how bad they’re going to try to rig this thing. But again, good day in the markets today. Protect, look at what’s happening here. Okay. If you have been paying attention like Tyler and I have been, and we just had this conversation, we’ve established long ago that this Biden administration is the worst leaking administration in history when it comes to economic data. We’ve seen time and time again the day before the data comes out. The markets almost seem to always move in the direction of important economic data, in the direction that they got it right.

We see it time and again and again. As I’ve said before, if this were happening under a republican administration, there would be, there would be calls for criminal probe into this because this is most, this is, in my career, this has always been a big no no. You know, this doesn’t happen, but it happens time and again here. Let’s take a look what happened today. Because if, what if these interest rate sensitive groups that we’re about to cover, if there, what happened to them today is a, an indicator of what the CPI is. That’s the big data. Tomorrow morning, the CPI, of course, then Thursday morning we get the PPI. But if what happened today, confirmation that we’re going to have a weak CPI tomorrow, then we’ll know that once again they leak.

Because here’s what we know. Ten year yields down to three, hitting a new 15 month low here today, right down big today, 3.64% on the ten year. Remember the five, the fed funds rates 5.33%. That’s how far offside the Fed is from the markets. Huge gap here. Feds way behind the curve. They should absolutely cut rates tomorrow. If we get a weak CPI, the Fed will be, in my opinion, will be cutting by 50 basis points on the 18th, a week from tomorrow when they make that decision.

[00:03:08]:
So the ten year yields moved in the direction of a weak CPI. What else happened today? Interest rate sensitive groups had a very good day. Real estate hitting a new almost two year high today. Utility stocks up again today. Again, not at an all time high, but a very, excuse me, very close to both an all time high and a 52 week high. Precious metals and miners just this afternoon, they both got legs. Gold finishing sharply higher, or I should say higher, if you will. We’ll cover that in commodities in a bit here.

But the gold’s up today, 14% and the miners up 1.2%. I’m going to share a chart tomorrow morning with our VRA members here. This chart of the miners looks ready to go because this has been a stair step chart for GDX, the gold miner ETF and NGT, which we own. It’s been a stairstep chart higher from the birth of this parabolic move, higher in March. And I think this, we got a, I think we have a big buy signal here. We’ve been patting the table on this group, especially on these pullbacks. That’s the opportunity. If you don’t act in, you’ll wind up paying more.

And I think we’ve had that in GDX. It’s ready to go. We’ll see if we need confirmation of that tomorrow. So, you know, again, also, bitcoin has had a nice move. Higher again. These are interest rate sensitive. Look at tech. One more group, right? Interest rate sensitive.

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It’s hard to find a group that’s more interest rate sensitive than the semis. And tech, they love when rates are falling. And here we go again today for the second day in a row. Now, the semis led the way higher estimates. The semi ETF up seven tenths, 1% today. And Nasdaq, of course, led the way up, also up eight tenths of 1%. So, you know, these are all the signs you look for, to say that rates are going to continue to fall and that the CPI data tomorrow will be weak. So let’s see if they leak like a sieve again to their best buddies on Wall street, who are able to profit off of this criminality.

My guess is, and my belief is that’s what’s going to happen. Because again, we believe the Fed is going to cut rates. I believe. I’m not sure about Tyler. I believe. I don’t think Tyler is quite as convinced as I am. I believe the Fed’s going to cover by 50 basis points. And the biggest reason for that, again, there’s incredibly offsides.

We have an election coming up. If they want team Harris to win at all, then she’s going to need help. Going to need help with the markets and a market that’s going more parabolic than it has been of late in this bearish September seasonality. And then the other reason is that, again, they should have already started cutting. The Fed should have been cutting in the first quarter this year, certainly by the second quarter. And now here we are in September, and they’ve still yet to cut rates. They’re way outside the ten year yields, are telling us this, again, 3.64% versus an effective funds rate of 5.33%. This is borderline ridiculous how far off the Fed is here right now.

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So unless they want to cause either a recession, which I don’t think that’s even in the playbook, frankly, or in the cars, or if they just don’t want Harris to win, maybe they already think it’s a fate of complete. It’s a done deal. We’ll see. But again, looking for a weak CPI report tomorrow because of these leakers in the criminal enterprise known as the Biden, the Biden crime family, isn’t that already been established? I believe it has. But again, good day. Protect today. Nasdaq today led the way higher, up 141 points on Nasdaq. Up eight tenths 1%.

Again, semis up seven, six, 1%. SB 500 also finished higher by half percent. The Dow Jones only finished down 92 points. It had been down over 300 points. So we had a very good smart money hour here today. And again, back to back days now of the semis leading higher, they have been leading lower. This is the group that we want to see going in the right direction. Again, we’ve been pounding the table on this group in this pullback.

We believe these pullbacks are a gift, that we’re in the very early innings of the innovation revolution. And this, the roaring 20 twenty’s. You may have seen Elon Musk comment in a panel interview he did last night where he said that. Let me pull up that quote exactly. It’s a good one. Where is, because you could hardly be more optimistic than Elon Musk is. He says, with the right measures, the US will enter a golden age. Quote, I think the reality is that we get rid of nonsense regulations and shift people from the government sector to the private sector.

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We will have immense prosperity, and I think we’ll have a golden age in this country, and it’ll be fantastic. That’s a big old golf clap right there for Elon Musk, because I couldn’t agree more. This is at the heart of what we’ve been talking about, the innovation revolution and the roaring two thousand twenty s. And of course, a stock market that will be booming. And I’ll pose the question one more time, because it’s my favorite question to ask of people that are bearish in the market. What do you, how will your investing views change if Trump wins? Every single person I talk to go, yeah, I won’t be bearish anymore. No, you’re right. I won’t be bearish anymore.

And so the markets are front running that again. We’ve had a topsy turbulence. September we had from the August 5 low, so that those are lows that we believe will absolutely hold. And everything else is a gift. All these little shakeouts and posits are a gift. And now we’ve had good back to back days in the semis and tech. I think that’s telling, because that September seasonality trade is, as we’ve talked about, often is a very crowded trade. Everybody and their mother is focused on that thinking this month is going to be horrible.

What if it’s not? What if the downside is already over with? And as you can tell, I believe that is the case. Let’s see, what else. Today, again, we talked about the Fed, how offsides they are. Again, we believe the lows are in for the semis and tech today. One of our positions at GameStop stock right now is down 8% after hours. Because as I saw the news here, I want to make sure I didn’t miss anything. They announced earnings better than expected the first time they turned to profit in seven years. However, they did not announce anything about what they’re going to do with their more than $4 billion in cash.

[00:09:46]:
They have $4.2 billion in cash. That’s almost 50% of the market, captain. And I know a lot of the quick money, the hot money was looking for news from GameStop on what Ryan Cohen and Roy Kitty as well, and the company were going to do with this mountain of cash that they have, and there was nothing on that. I actually am glad they didn’t because when they announced something, I don’t want to be an afterthought as part of an earnings report. Oh, by the way, here’s what we plan to do. That’s a standalone announcement. I can tell you we’re buyers of this dip. I really like the stock here.

Don’t like the fact that it’s down 8% after hours on the news. Don’t really understand it, frankly. I haven’t had a chance to dig into the numbers. But again, I think that stock is a buy on this pullback along with our other favorite groups. Tesla one of those. Tesla up another 5% today. Good back to back days after the big shakeout day last week. Now it’s a 226.

Tesla is the stock to own for the innovation revolution, for the many reasons we’ve talked about here. And again, three events are front running. They’re going to have deliverables coming up here October 2. Then on 1010, we get robotaxi day. That’s going to be front run. I think that’s going to continue to happen. I think this stock’s going to keep going higher. And then, of course, about two weeks after robo taxi day, which they’re going to talk a lot about autonomous and where they are.

[00:11:12]:
Two weeks after that, we’ll have earnings. So a lot happening with Tesla here over the next three weeks, three to four weeks as it looks now. What else miss anything? And again, precious metals and miners pounding the table in this group. Great looking charts. We’re definitely buyers of this group on these little stair step pattern, higher from the, really from the parabolic phase, which began in late February. And every time we get this little overbought shakeout, which is what this had been, it’s been a buy. I’ll show that chart in the morning. It’s a pretty interesting looking chart.

All right, let’s take a look under the hood today. Yesterday, remember, the internals were very good today, not quite so much today. Again, the Dow was down today, but we did have advanced decline was positive for NYSE. Also for NYSE, volume was just slightly negative by about $700 million worth of trading. Nasdaq, of course, had a good day today, had a positive decline, if even slightly so. Volume was up, was positive by 59%. And combined new 52 highs and lows came in right about flat today. So again, we had a powerful day yesterday.

Market taking a little bit of breather today in advance of some nervousness, of course, about the CPI tomorrow, which again, we expect is going to be good news. And our commodity watch. Sector watch. Sorry, I. Sector watch today. Nine of eleven sectors finished high on the day. Energy down 1.9%. That’s our leader of the downside with oil prices getting hit here.

[00:12:49]:
But again to the upside, real estate, consumer discretionary and technology all up more than 1% on the day. And a commodity watch again. Gold had another good day today. Again, we’re now 20. What are we at now? Dollar 24 an ounce from all time high. Gold up dollar 13 an ounce, a half percent at 25.45. Silver up a quarter of a percent today at 28.72 an ounce. Copper today down three pennies a pound at 410 a pound.

Crude oil again getting hit today, back to $66 a barrel. Again, the Fed, are you paying attention? Right. This is a signal the economy is slowing. The seed in the commodities base, in base metals, are you paying attention? Crude oil down 240 a barrel, down three and a half percent today at 66 31. And finally, bitcoin continues to have a little bit of legs here. Up 1% at 57,661. By the way, as Tyler reminded me, the fear greed index is at 40. That’s fear territory, folks.

Again, there’s a contrarian. I think we know what that means. All right, folks. Hey, always appreciate you listening. Hope you had a great day. Even better. Night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.