In today's episode, Kip digs into the roots of today's market downturn, challenging the reliability of economic data, and the narratives spun by financial media. Despite these setbacks, I urge you not to lose sleep over this bull market. Our focus remains steadfast on the long game, especially on titans like Tesla and the digital fortress of Bitcoin.

Don’t look back. The market is closed. Good Thursday after everyone, Kip Herriage here with the daily voting investing podcast. Hope you all do well today. We were all doing well today, weren’t we? About midday, and then everything just went, went to shit, did it not? What happened here? AMD started this downfall. Advanced micro devices actually finished down eight and a half percent. And I don’t see the new, I don’t see news for that reason.

I don’t see news for that move lower that I could find. Anyway, I didn’t search real hard. We don’t own AMD, but we own the three time leverage semiconductor ETF Soxl. So, yeah, we actually do own AMD, along with a lot of the others, including Nvidia. But that is the first thing I noticed, was that then we noticed, of course, the SMH, the semi ETF started going lower. It actually finished down 2.7% today. So we just had our staff meeting, Tyler and Josh myself, to talk about this and make sure we’ve got our story straight for you. Try to make sense of what’s happening here.

[00:00:58]:
First of all, let me tell you, Dow Jones finished down 530 points. That’s 1.3%. Nasdaq, even more, down 1.4%. Down 228 points. As you have 100. Pretty much all the same, really. 1.3%. Rough 2000, down 1%.

That was our winner on the day of the indexes. And again, semi is down 2.7%. The VIX index, the volatility index, finished up 14%. I mean, it sounded like a lot, but it was only 14 before. Now it’s 16. That’s not a big deal, really. But what’s interesting, and this will dovetail into what we’re going to talk about here, the ten year keynote. This is, of course, the topic of conversation pretty much every day now with the financial talking heads is what’s going to happen with rates.

Well, something didn’t fit in the action that we saw today. Ten year yields fell today. Ten years. Just remember this, ten year yields dropped to 4.309%. Now, it’s not a huge drop, but it doesn’t work with what apparently the talking heads are saying is a reason the move forward took place. So let’s go over this quickly. I tend to not get caught up. If you know me, you know this.

[00:02:08]:
I don’t get caught up in single reports. I just couldn’t care less about a single report. We’re looking at trends, right? Looking at trends. I don’t trust government reports. I don’t trust their data. It’s number one. It’s, it misses so much. There’s completely rigged.

They are rigged. These, these reports are rigged to at least some degree, and they’re wrong. The revisions are just insane. So, you know, look, I don’t trust individual reports. That’s my point. But when you see this kind of a move, and if this is not an enormous move, but it’s attention getting because we were up a couple hundred points on the Dow Jones to start the day. Nasdaq was up 180 points, again finishing down 228. That’s a 400 point swing in Nasdaq.

So, yeah, it’s, it’s worth, it’s worth getting, diving into. This is not just, this is not nothing, in other words. So let’s talk about what’s going on here. All right. First of all, tomorrow is the jobs report. Now this is what everybody’s saying. Oh, markets are nervous about a bad jobs number, meaning it’s going to be hot. I think the estimates for the month of April have created March to have created 200,000 jobs.

[00:03:16]:
I think that’s the last estimate I saw. Maybe off a little bit there. So it wouldn’t surprise me, by the way, if this number is hot. First of all, we’ve got a strong economy, so no one would really be surprised in that point of view. Although, remember all these revisions, they’ve had revisions in like eleven of the last twelve months and not a little bit. A lot, which tells you the economy is not as strong as these official numbers tell you. This is a well known subject matter. Right.

So I don’t think it’s a hot jobs report. I don’t think that the market would be all that shocked by this. I don’t think the market cares where rates are. Look, we don’t, we have enough evidence now, and we’ve, Tyler and I talked about this with you ad nauseum. Don’t we have enough evidence now to indicate the markets do not care about interest rates? Don’t we have enough evidence now to say that the markets are in the process of not caring about the inflation data? Because, again, the trend, the trend, remember a year ago, inflation was over 9% or 14 months was over 9%, but we’re now two and a half. Trend, of course, is lower. That’s called disinflation, which is, of course, what we’ve had every single month over the last year plus. So I don’t think it’s, it’s not bond, it’s not the bond market.

[00:04:30]:
It’s not rates. It’s not inflation. No, this is about something else because again, if it was about that, yields would have been up today. Okay? Yields would, although I would not put it past this administration. This administration, we already know about their crookedness. Okay. But, but there’s, there’s a lot that’s not even talked about because the financial media won’t touch this cb. What I’m about to tell you, CNBC won’t touch Bloomberg won’t touch Fox business.

Next time I’m with Charles paint, which, by the way, is gonna be next Thursday. I’m scheduled to be on next Thursday. Of course, Tyler was on last night on the, with Wayne root on his, on his show, tv and radio show last night. Just knocked it out of the park. Proud of my son. And I’ll be on next Thursday with Charles Payne. And maybe we can bring this up then. But this administration leaks, this administration leaks economic data all the time.

These reports that come out are commonly leaked and you know it because you see the action on the day before. Now, what happened here, actually, this sell all started yesterday. We saw a midday weakness yesterday. Now, we recovered a lot of energy to close, so it kind of masked it, but it still showed up a little bit in the eternals. We got that again today. And certainly today was a clear sell off in advance of this job. So again, it would not surprise me if this jobs data was leaked, but I’m going to tell you, I do not think that that’s what’s going on here. Tyler and Josh, we all agree on this, all right? And, you know, we, we went through every possible option.

So here’s what I think this was, by the way, Neil Kaskari, this is the other thing the, apparently the financial talking heads are going on about. Neil Kashkiri is, I guess he’s a voting member of the Fed. I don’t remember. He’s a Minnesota guy. He’s a fed president, I think. I don’t know. He’s a voting member, but he was on Steve. Is that because he.

[00:06:18]:
Fed talking heads, they have to make, you know, 100 appearances a month, right? I mean, again, we said this for a long time. If you’re new here, then maybe it’s new to you. Otherwise it won’t be. These are our financial masters of the universe, the new financials of our, the new masters of our universe, of our financial universe are these Fed presidents and governors and of course, led by Jay Powell, the chairman. They love all the attention. They’re getting the money. They’re getting the opportunities that spawn out of this these guys leave the Fed and go on to run or play vice chairman roles in companies like Blackrock and companies like Vanguard. They know their mill ticket is punched.

And again, that cancer that’s happening, destruction of institutions is happening throughout the country, certainly is spread all the way down to the Federal Reserve. It’s not just in other areas of government as well. So of course the Fed is not government. They are, they’re not federal, of course, they’re their own private cabal of bank global bankers. But Keshkari was out saying, oh, we may not even raise rates this year or some nonsense like that. Again, I don’t remember the last time he’s ever been right. He’s just a mouthpiece. He just, he just says whatever kind of, oh, he’s a wild card.

He’s the wild card. And so I can tell you again, the markets aren’t down because Neel Kashkari said the markets aren’t caring about rates. The economy’s doing fine. Economy’s doing fine, by the way. And I think we’re the only people reporting this. And that’s interesting because, and again, I don’t watch live tv. I could be wrong. But we’ve been saying this for a long time and no one else has come to us.

[00:08:03]:
Oh, by the way, these guys are saying, oh, they’re also saying here what you’re saying, Todd, and I’ve been talking about this now for a long time. During the 1995 to 2000 dot melt up, which we think is this is the most similar period to that. The average on the year yield was higher than 6%. Again, we’re 4.3% now. Certainly there were times when it was close to 7% in 95 to 2000, get the average over 6%. So the, that big tech led rally then did not care. And I don’t think it matters now. Of course, again, I got to play devil’s advocate because people would say we can, we didn’t have $34 trillion in that then.

No, of course we didn’t. But here’s the markets don’t care about that either because it’s all relative and debt is an illusion anyway, but especially certainly when it comes to government debt. But here’s the distinction. China debt to Japan’s debt to GDP is 270 plus 123%. So Japan’s more than double us. What is China’s rule number? Well, we know it’s officially 300 something percent, 310, 320 based on the official data, debts of GDP. But what is that number really? Because does anyone trust their data? Of course not. No one does.

Here’s what’s funny. When China puts out bad economic data, all of the Perma bear sites and all the perma bears and the haters, haters of profitability is what they really are. They come out and they just glob onto that. China, oh, look, China’s economy is only growing at 5%. That’s recessionary for them. That’s recessionary for them. I mean, that’s kind of been their line. So when China comes out, as their economic data has been improving, when China comes out and says, oh, we actually did better than we thought we were going to do it, economy back to growing 5.8%, these same people come out and go, well, you can’t trust their data.

[00:09:52]:
It’s hilarious, right? The mental gymnastics that people go to to try to never be wrong. They have to, whatever they have to do to never admit that they’re wrong. I have very, as you can probably tell, very little patience for people that can’t admit when they’re wrong and just move on instead of having to. I got, I could. One of these days, I really should write a book. I should write another book. Kind of inside Wall street. The stories that I know, people that I know, and what they say versus what they do, it wouldn’t surprise you, it wouldn’t surprise you at all that these are charlatans.

They’re complete hypocrites. And what they see on tv is usually the exact opposite of what they’re really doing. And they’re just scummy people. I mean, beyond, they’re just scum. They’re scummy people. And so that’s why, frankly, and I hate to even say this, because, you know, Tyler and I were both on television now, and that’s only going to grow because I think, you know, we’re, we’re doing some things here that our growth is going to continue to accelerate because our returns, and now we actually are growing because we’re doing some marketing. We just never done that before. But we’ve kind of decided it’s time, it’s time to go ahead and grow this and let’s see what we can do with this thing.

You know, let’s help as many people as possible and let’s have fun doing it. We just needed the right team around us, so we’re not working 18 hours a day instead of 14 hours a day. And so that, I mean, that really is, that’s really what’s gone into the decision making process. So, yeah, we are going to grow. I think you’ll see that some news on that pretty soon. And we’re excited about that. We got a great team now that we brought in to help us get to where we want to go and to do it, we believe, to do it the right way. You know, number one, focus on your clients.

[00:11:29]:
Focus on your subscribers. Make them money. Right. Always be honest. Write all your own shit. We write every word of everything we put out, from tweets to blogs to, obviously, every letter we put out. Our parabolic everything, books, everything we put out is written by us. And so that’s very rare.

Kip Herriage [00:11:48]:
Just in case you didn’t know that almost nobody else does that. All these newsletter writers, they have either an AI algorithm or somebody as a copywriter of their staff, writes their stuff for them. So that’s the approach that we believe here works. I think that’s how you breed loyalty and long term trust with the folks that you work with. At least that’s. That’s what, that’s always that we sleep well at night. We sleep well at night with our approach. I don’t know how other people do.

I do not know how other people do. Frankly, I think that’s, again, the scummy comment I made earlier. Okay, let’s get back to this. So if it’s not about the jobs numbers tomorrow, if it’s not about real, the interest rates, if it’s not about inflation, what is this sell off about? It’s probably about Iran. Okay? It’s probably about Iran. It would explain a lot of things, would it not? It would help explain Iran attacking Israel, which is probably. I hate to even make this kind of a forecast because I’m not into the military industrial complex arena game. And I don’t.

I don’t play that anymore, Billy. I don’t know how to profit from it. And it just drives me crazy trying to think of all this. You know, I’m not predicting World War three. I’m not saying China is going to take over Taiwan. These are crazy. These are crazy thoughts. Now, I’m not saying that may not happen, but these same people have been predicting this for a decade plus two decades.

[00:13:08]:
They want it to happen, apparently. So that’s just not me. I’m an optimist and I believe that good things are going to happen because I believe what you think about, you bring about. I think about good things. I think about peace. I think about prosperity. And so, anyway, that works for me. But I am going to make this kind of a prediction here because I think this makes the most sense.

It explains gold going up. It explains oil going up and probably bitcoin to some degree. Tyler had a great point about that meeting as well, that in previous geopolitical turmoil, which was when we left Afghanistan and when Russia. Russia didn’t really invade Ukraine, when the Russia Ukraine conflict started, because I’m not going to get to that either, that there were big moves higher in bitcoin as well. So, of course, we saw today bitcoin is up $2,600 back to 68,008, 550. I think it was over 69,000 at one point today, up 4% on the day. So more than anything, if you’ve been following the news here, and by the way, Biden came out today and demanded that Netanyahu initiate a ceasefire with Gaza because they finally realized, okay, yeah, this does look very much like you’re just killing a lot of women and children. Yeah, this does look really bad, of course, because it is.

And so as a reminder, and I don’t know, genocide, I don’t know if that’s happening. That kind of looks like it to me. What they’re doing is fucking ridiculous. And, you know, there’s a special place in hell for anyone that bombs innocent civilians and knows they’re doing it. He just keeps doing it. I’m sorry. There’s no justification that in any world, it wasn’t justified when we did it in Iraq, where we killed at least 500,000 innocent women, children and men that happen to be workers. Not everybody’s in the military.

[00:15:03]:
500,000 to most people, say over 1 million. I don’t know, at least 500,000 innocents we killed in Iraq in an invasion that should never have happened in the first place because of the lies of Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. Again, these people are evil people. And if there is a hell, uh, this is what. I hope there is one. You know, I don’t. I don’t believe there is one, but this is when I hope there is one. And people like Karl Rove, by the way, since we’re going down this road a bit, Karl Rove today.

I think this video was from today. Otherwise I would have seen it before. Maybe it’s an old video, but I just saw it today. I couldn’t even watch it, frankly. I just saw the board. Karl Rove is saying all these Jan six people should be locked up. That should be part of our campaign. Message is to go after them and lock them up.

They should do serious time. Wow. Karl Rove. Here’s a guy. Talk about people that deserve a special place in hell. Karl Rove was a senior advisor when we invaded Iraq, when weapons of mass destruction became a thing, when that lie was formed. Karl Rove and about 100 of his buddies in the Bush administration should be doing at least, at minimum, should be a Gitmo now or whatever. The, Iraq should have one of these prisons like Abu Ghraib and they should be, you know, they basically should be terrorizing them there.

[00:16:27]:
Now, these are clearly evil people. Right? So, but what, but back to the point of the story about Iran. So Israel, this is what, a few days ago, Israel attacked an iranian consulate, killed, killed some important people, apparently. I don’t know all the details, but that happened and no one’s denying that it did, apparently. And so the speculation is that Iran is now going to get revenge. And I think that’s probably going to happen. I think the markets, I think the public, the military public, in other words, are starting to kind of prepare people. Yeah, that’s probably going to happen.

You know, I’ve seen subtle comments like that. Well, yeah, that’s what people think is going to happen. And I don’t remember, maybe somebody can correct me. I know they’ve done it, you know, through proxies and through surrogates, but I don’t remember Iran attacking Israel or one of their consents. I don’t remember that. I mean, I know they do it through again through surrogates, but under their own name, publicly saying we will get revenge for this. So that is, that’s not a good thing. That’s a step in a different direction.

I think that helps to explain why the market’s so obvious. Again, I’m going through, I apologize. Most of you probably don’t care what I’m talking about. Let’s go back to the markets here. We’ll see what the jobs number is tomorrow and of course we’ll report it to you along with the truth as we see it because again, we are in a generational bull market. So that’s really, that’s always our fallback. You know, this is a incredibly strong economy. It’s a structural bull market, meaning it’s based in fundamentals, technicals, sentiment and VR investing system.

[00:18:01]:
Eleven is twelve screens bullish. These are all things that we rely on and we just have never gotten too extreme about steroids. Right. So we’ll see what happens tomorrow. But the fear and greed index, as Tyler pointed out, which was 70 something just the other day, is apparently now down to a 49. So again, when you see sentiment surveys that go from extreme greed to just neutral, which is what this level is that tells you this is not a market you need to be worried about, because so many people jump ship right away, you know, and so you’ll know, we’ll know when there’s a real top in place. And I’m not talking about, you know, we can drop three, four, 5% anytime. That that’s just a shakeout.

Those happen. I don’t even know what you can do about that. I said, make sure along the way you raise some cash. If you have some nice profits, it always makes sense to have a bit of cash and, you know, make sure you’re in things that keep going up. Gold has been nothing going up. I like to keep money in gold instead of in the bank. Who needs fiat currency when you got gold? Who needs fiat currency when you got bitcoin? So it’s how you save, and it’s where you keep your cash. Again, bitcoin up today, gold was up all day, closed down.

It’s only down $4 an ounce now. Still 23. Ten. But, you know, having some cash aside in case we do get a shakeout, you can add your favorite positions. Like every, every time we get a pause or a shakeout, kind of like to add to the semiconductors, we’re looking at putting a new position on in housing. You know, we took really, really good profits in there, and we took about six, seven, eight months ago, we took profits after just killing it from the October 13 to 2022 lows. And now we want to get back into this group because housing, again, is in a long term structural market. So we come back to that theme a lot.

[00:19:47]:
That shakeouts should be looked at in big bull markets like this. We’re just in, remember, second year, it’s going to go many years. These shakeouts should be looked at as gifts. And I’ve been making this case for a long time now about Tesla and about bitcoin. I hope they go lower. And that’s not. I’m not just saying that I hope they go lower because they’re giving me a gift, because I think I know what’s coming with Tesla. I wrote this up this morning for our folks.

There’s about four different areas that they have no. They have no competition in. I’m not talking about EV’s, I’m talking areas they have no real competition in, where they have multiple year lead time, an insurmountable lead time. That’s Tesla. People are focused on deliveries, and that’s the past. No one. I do not. I could not care less about that because Tesla is not a car company, it’s a tech company.

And they are the heart and center of the innovation revolution underway. Now, that’s the key here. So same thing with bitcoin. I hope it goes lower. I want to buy more. I want to buy more cheaper. But, you know, we got. We had a pull back to 60,500.

[00:20:56]:
What was that three weeks ago? That was. I woke up like, boom, go, let’s go. Let’s buy some more. So that’s how I look at it. And I feel the same way about every position of your portfolio. If it goes lower, I get to buy more. But there are some. I do feel more about that, like the miners right now, as I just said, tesla and, of course, bitcoin, which is going to go a hell of a lot higher.

Tyler talked about that a little bit last night on with Wayne. And, you know, we’ll still be buying bitcoin at a million dollars, you know, whenever that is. But it’ll still be a point. It will still be a buy then. And so that’s the long term focus we like to have. You can’t look at everything like that because bitcoin is such a unique creature of its own. There is nothing like bitcoin ever in my career. There’s nothing at all like bitcoin.

There’s never been anything like bitcoin. People should understand that. People should understand that the bitcoin is unique to our times. Right? And the supply demand story is exceptional. You’ll just never, you’ll never find a better supply demand story than this thing. It’s just unbelievable. And now it’s got sec approval. Right? And now we got to remember 80%, approximately 80% of everybody, all the broker dealers, their financial advisors, money managers, hedge funds, these family offices, right, sovereign wealth funds, they can’t buy bitcoin yet because they’re going all going through, getting the approval process from their internal compliance, working their attorneys, making sure the backside is covered.

[00:22:31]:
Right. That’s 80%. Cannot buy you. But it’s the process that’s happening. So the smaller operations are getting approval first, and then it’ll go boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. Finally, it’ll be vanguard, you know, whose CEO just mysteriously is all of a sudden decided to quit after 33 years. Of course, he’s the one that said, never be in bitcoin. He’s gone.

At least he’ll be gone in September. But, you know, I doubt he’s even making decisions now. They are. Vanguard is moving forward with bitcoin. They haven’t announced it but I can assure you that that is the case. And so all of these announcements are coming out. Morgan Stanley enough say they’re trying to speed up the process. Others are as well, of course.

And so again, the demand that’s going to come in for bitcoin is going to be insane. I am actually surprised, frankly, I am surprised that bitcoin is not 100,000 now. And I think it’s going to happen. As we’ve been saying, you know, the having is in 16 days now. I think it’s going to happen either just before or just after the hat, within 30 days of the having. But I am kind of surprised it’s not there now because the, the futures markets are reason they’re playing their games. The futures trading is insane. The spot market can’t even compete.

[00:23:42]:
What’s happening in futures trading. But these are traders, remember, they’re really not taking long term positions. They’re trading and so they like to try to pile on either long or short and really try to liquidate people. And you can do that of course, both ways, long and shorts, so. But they’re not, they don’t matter. They’re just like the noise, you know, they’re just creating a volatility in trading, which is good. You know, traders like to have volatility, but for the average person, you know, we just, we don’t want to see that. But of course, it’s the reality of investing.

But see, that doesn’t matter. What matters is long term demand and long term holders. Remember, most people that own bitcoin are not selling. There’s no interest, not selling. So again, the supply is just not there. And now this halving is going to reduce mining every day from 900 coins to 450 coins thereabouts. And again, it’s just an extraordinary setup. So we covered this ad nauseam, of course.

So apologies there, but that’s what we’re looking at. Again, it’s tomorrow we’ll have a little more. I’ll probably try to write some this up tomorrow. And again, I’m sorry for boring you with all that stuff, but that’s, that’s what we talked about our staff meeting today. And I just thought it’d be interesting to get, maybe give some of you a kind of inside look. We should, we should record these things. Our staff meetings are pretty fun, I think. I think you benefit people.

[00:24:59]:
Let’s talk about what happened inside the market today, because again, this is, this does not look like any kind of a violent sell off at all. Again, bands declined two to one I’m going to round up two to one negative. Okay. Not even that for Nasdaq, NYse. Frankly, not either. Neither one really were two to one negatives. It’s under two to one negative volume, a little worse here. NYSE down volume was 73% and Nasdaq was better at 62%.

Fans decline. Excuse me, a new 50 kaiser lows. Check this out. We had 319 stocks hit 50 week high to just 112 hit a 52 week low. So again, if there’s going to be a lot of trouble coming, I don’t think there is. Again, anything that happens can be short term, but, you know, that’s a buying opportunity. Buy the dip has been the smartest of smart money strategies from the bear market. Lows.

[00:25:48]:
It’s the only thing that it’s worked better than anything except follow the semis. And that’s why the semis down 2.7% today with advanced micro down 8%. You know, that’s something we want to get figured out again, long term, semis are going to keep leading. They’re going to keep leading. They’re at the cutting edge of everything to do with the innovation revolution. AI, of course, and so they’re going so much higher. Yeah, I think I shared the chart this morning with our folks of semi S 300 relative strength truck, which I. We love relative streak trucks.

It tells you it’s inside baseball. It tells you the things otherwise you’d have no way of knowing. It’s the relationship and interaction between sectors and industries, and it just paints you a picture of what you’re really happening. I’m surprised more people don’t use this, but we love them. And this morning, you look at it, SMH is going parabolic to the stock market. It’s nearing going parabolic to the SB 500. So they’re leading still. And again, that’s a very bullish sign in our sector watch today.

This is not pretty. I’ll prepare you in advance. Let me do a quick refresh. Yep, that’s right. All of it. Sectors finish lower today. Technology down 1.7%. Get semis down big today.

[00:27:05]:
Healthcare down 1.4%. Communication surgeons, which is actually tech, also down 1.4. All eleven lower. Not a lot of damage done outside of the top three or four, just down again, 1.4 to 1.7%. And our Kawaii watch today, gold had been trading all day over. Did a high today of $2,324 an ounce. Right now, it’s 23 ten, which is down $4 an ounce on the day. But again, it’s just been garlic strong.

Of course, again, so many reasons. Again, I wrote this up this morning for our folks. The miners, of course, have gone parabolic. They’ve been going over the last month. The miners up 28%, doesn’t include today. Miners up 28%. GDX miners up 28% in the last month. That’s parabolic.

I mean, you got one sector that goes up 28%. I’m sorry, that’s called parabolic. Right? It’s been a phenomenal move. Higher down. Today, just under 1% was GDX. But even today, I mean, volume yesterday was 30 million. Volume today, 29 million. What is going on here? What it tells me, and I wrote this up this morning.

I think we have a tell here. This is significant. Stay with me on this. I think this may make you some money, because I know this group about as well as anybody else, okay? About as well as anybody in the country for having a feel for it. Okay? I think that’s an accurate statement. My dad was a gold bug, and he took a huge bath in it. He bought right at the top, at what? $800 at the top of the seventies? And then I remember when he sold it, he sold it near the lows. And I remember going, that’s the opposite, right? It is buy low.

[00:28:50]:
So high, right? I felt sorry for my father, of course, but introduced me to this whole space. And so I’ve been hooked. Started going to investment conferences that focus on precious metals. And miners love these people because these are good, hard work. This is salt of the earth people, right? These are the people. I want to be around these people, not these scumbags from Wall street, okay? I want to be around the good people, the mining industry, oil and gas and precious metals and those guys. And so they’re fun conference to go to because, you know, you work with people, you buy large trusts, and they’re good people. Say the truth.

You have the Borneo from time to time that salt their minds. And, you know, if you remember that story out of Canada, of course, that shut down the canadian stock, the Alberta stock, the Brix minerals, shut down the Vancouver stock Exchange because it was such a big scam. But basically, these are good people and the ones we want to work with. And again, I wrote this up this morning. This is a tell. I believe this is a. This will make us some money. When? When? Right now.

GDX, the miner, ETF, is barely trading any volume at all. Look at a chart on it. I mean, it flatlined every now and then. It might do 40 million in the last 30 days, even with this pair volume higher, the biggest volume they have was 49 billion. Right. Now, to put that in perspective for you, because that doesn’t mean anything as a standalone number. In years past, when this group gets hot, you’re looking at regular volume of better than 80 million shares a day with spikes to 100, 5200 million. We’re at 30 million shares traded.

So why is that important? Was it tell us. It’s pretty important and it tells us, I think we’re only in the first inning of this move higher than the miners. Okay. Gold’s already all time highs. The miners are still so cheap. They’ve moved up a little bit, but only a little bit. I think they’re 70% below their all time highs. Folks, this is crazy talk here.

So they’re going to have a huge move. And I think how we’re going to know it’s going to happen is when the volume really starts coming into GDX, that’ll be the tell. Because when we start jumping from 30 million like we are nowadays, 30 million shares traded to get back to, we see 50, then we see 60, and all of a sudden, boom, we have day 80 and then a day over 100. This group will be going truly parabolic at that point. So the key here is that’s how we’ll know the smart money showing up. They’re not here yet. I keep thinking any day now and they’re still not here. They’re not believers.

[00:31:16]:
Right. They just, they’ve been full before. Miners have been a very tough position, place to be in for a number of time, number of years. But again, we have gold at all time highs. This group’s not quite moving yet, so. But we’ll know they’re in when the volume starts to spike. Let’s keep an eye on that. I think.

I think that tell can make us a lot of money because when it goes, when they, when the smart money starts showing up, it’s going to be kDbar, the door, it’s going to be boom time. Right. And that’s when you make sure your positions are in or at least be ready to get them in. Okay, so that’s, that’s our smart money play today with GDX. What we’re looking for, our restart commodity watch today gets silver down $0.04, announced at 27. Silver’s been hot, $27 an ounce. Copper up two cent a pound today at 422. What a story, doctor.

Copper. What a story this is, again, telling you the global economy is in good shape and coming back. Oil doing the same thing. Oil up another dollar, 30 in a barrel. We are well positioned there, folks, 86.81 a barrel. Now on oil, it looks to me clear to go to the 94 to 95 area. I think that’s where it’s headed. And then assuming 90 to 95 in that range.

[00:32:24]:
And after that, you know, anything over 100 starts putting a little bit of stress on the economy. But remember, inflation adjusted oil is cheap. Inflation adjusted oil is cheap. I’m kind of surprised oil is not $250 a barrel because inflation adjusted, it’s probably $10 a barrel. So we think it’s expensive here. It’s really not. Now, a lot of states, of course, gasoline prices are expensive because governments use these for tax havens to tax the crap at everybody, right. And hide it in a gallon of gas.

Again, just evil, evil people working with here. But again, I think oil looks, energy stocks look fantastic, continue to look fantastic. And again, that’s part of this broadening process we’ve had. Right. Todd talked about yesterday. We have this something we’re calling the incredible rolling bull market. We just wrote this up for the first time yesterday, the incredible rolling bull market. We have all these sectors that are now getting hot because again, when it first started, after the bear market lows, what do we have? We had the semis and tech led the way.

[00:33:27]:
Textbook. Exactly what you want to see, exactly what you should see. After semis and tech, what happened? The broadening action started, didn’t it? Broadening came and we saw broadening action move into other growth areas like biotech, etcetera. Then it spread to value stocks and to global markets. They got hot. Now look what’s gotten hot here of late. Small caps, precious metals and miners and energy stocks. A rolling bull market.

The reason that’s significant is that when that happens, it keeps one group from getting too hot and over, keeps the entire market from getting overbought. Because if you only have tech and growth stocks leading the way, at some point everything is just going to get overbought. You need other groups working. You need a rolling bull market, which is what we have here. And it’s as early as early. I think this is, if this action continues, it will extend this bull market exactly what we’ve been talking about into 2030, at least for a long time. Right. So that’s what we think is happening here.

[00:34:25]:
And I think we get a lot of evidence that it is happening. All right. And I guess, I guess I’ll give you a final quote on bitcoin. We’re done, right? 60. Let me pull up right at 68,000. So it’s. Again. It’s up, what, $2100 on the day again they’re having coming up here.

And just so many reasons to own bitcoin. It’s a little crazy. Hey, folks. Always appreciate you listening. Hope you had a great day. Need a better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.