In today's episode, Kip recaps an action-packed week for stock market action, specifically, the current performance of tech and semiconductors, spotlighting giants like Nvidia, ahead of their earnings report. Lastly, Kip covers his personal take on the government’s role in the economy, critiqueing Kamala Harris’s economic policies. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back to the market is closed. Good Friday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily bearing investing podcast. Hope you had a great day today. Hope your week is fantastic as well. But it could have gone either way. Couldn’t have it. The last couple of weeks have been pretty wild.

Of course we had, not this Monday, but the Monday before we had the, we woke up to really what is my biggest fear? Japan melted down. They had a black Monday a week ago Monday, almost two weeks ago now. Course their market, I woke up and found that their market, the Nikkei Dow closed down 13.4%. I mean, that’s truly a black Monday. It was brutal and then our futures went south from there. It really is amazing that it wasn’t worse, but I think the fact that it wasn’t told us a lot. Even though the VIX spiked from essentially 20 to 65 I believe was the highest, the market was actually pretty sanguine in its reaction to what happened in Japan because again, that is our ultimate black swan concern. The ultimate, you would say is central banks changing their mind, blowing up the system or just the global financial markets losing faith in central banks.

[00:01:21]:
That’s the real biggie. That’s the real biggie. But the other 1 second to that really and probably the most obvious one, I think and maybe the biggest real risk is Japan because again they have daily QE. They have now forever a couple decades. Japan is the government central bank. The bank of Japan is the largest holder of both japanese debt and equities. Many days, remember Japan’s system is buried in debt more than any other industrialized country on the planet. No one, I think their debt to GDP is it’s got to be like three.

I believe it’s 320%. Now we’re at 122%. So they’re at least I’ll run these numbers again because it grows so rapidly. They’re at least 300% debts. GDP in Japan, again, we’re 122. So in Japan, China is 200 4250. If you can even trust, you know what they put out. So that’s one of the reasons by the way, to everybody that says, oh my God, here comes the next 2000 day, you don’t understand our debts going to bury us.

We do have $35 trillion in debt by the way. That’s a big number, but that number doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter. Doesn’t matter whatsoever. Matter of fact, I really don’t think government debt matters, especially not if you’re the leader, if you’re the leader of the free world. And that’s America. You know what? To the victory goes the spoils. And that, I mean, this is a reality.

[00:02:58]:
You know, we talk often here about this sigh up and negativity is in place. And so when I say things like this, I tend to get interesting feedback. What are you talking about? Because when you hear something that you don’t normally hear, and it’s not in the mainstream media 24/7 anybody saying anything else sounds outrageous. It sounds like what’s wrong with this person, right? Look, I’m not saying I don’t have things wrong with me. I have a lot wrong with me. But one of the things that’s not wrong with me is my ability to analyze the financial markets because there’s emotion and there’s the fiction that the media and others want us to have to believe, and then there’s the reality and where I think the facts lie. And again, at 122% debt to GDP, we are so much better than the second and third largest countries, other largest countries on the planet, Japan and China and Japan, in that order, that the problem wouldn’t start here again. The problem would start likely in Japan.

So, yeah, that 13.4% black Monday, a week ago Monday was absolutely concerning. But the way we handled it again told us a lot. And again, we said this now, for the last almost two weeks since that Monday collapse, the Dow dropped 1030 points. Much worse, by the way, percentage wise, in Nasdaq. Nasdaq was down like 4% on the day. That was the buying opportunity. Right. And in my career, and I must have said and written this, I don’t know, a thousand times over the years, the best buying opportunities in my career, without question, have come on a really bad Monday following a weak Friday.

[00:04:40]:
That’s when you tend to get blood in the streets. That’s when you get panic at really skyrocketing levels. And this is something that is a great piece of analytics. We’ve been talking about this this week, but I’ll just share it again now because I think it’s very important to understand this. This is something the average person would have no clue about. And again, shout out to Ryan Dietrich for putting this out. I’ve seen it elsewhere, by the way, this is not uncommon. But whenever you have the vix, the volatility index, whenever you have the volatility index spike from regular levels to over 50 and to do it in just a couple, three days, which is exactly what happened here, then that’s created some of the best buying opportunities on record in this case.

And again, this is overwhelmingly bullish data. You can almost just invest on this piece of data. That’s how powerful it is. And forget about all the other reasons we say we should be bullish. Right. And just invest on this one because it’s happened so many times and the analytics are so incredibly powerful. Again, when the VIX has spiked over 50, let’s go back to 1990 in 91 out of 92 cases. So it’s happened a lot.

The market’s been higher, meaning S 500 has been higher one year later, 98.9% of the time. That’s good, right? But the average gain is what’s really attention getting. The market’s been up, on average, more than 30% over that next year. So that’s great work from Ryan Dietrich and team there. And again, I recommend, I recommend everybody follows him. He is, he may be our competition, but we don’t look at it that way. This guy is just good at what he does and he seems like a very decent foul. Know him personally, but seems like a very good guy, too.

[00:06:23]:
So, yeah, you know, it’s the. The emotion of investing is what gets most people in my career. It’s what’s got me in the most trouble. I could probably point to 90% of the. When. I used to be a very active trader. Used to be a day trader, did options, I did day trading for myself and for clients. Did that for a number of years.

And I mean, I got. I got pretty good at it, but there was short term trades. But the biggest mistakes I made were always tied to emotion, where I had the theme, right. I had the market call, right? And then something happened and something just went off at me and said, okay, you know, you gotta. You get. You gotta change course, right? Either buy or to sell, whatever. However, I was positioned to reverse the positioning and it was just hardly ever the right thing to do. So that’s what we saw a week ago Monday.

It was a true panic. If my first mentor, Ted Parsons, was still alive today, I’d love to be able to have him on a podcast and talk about this. Because, Ted, this is the example I’ve given so many times. I’ve written about it in a couple of books. On Black Monday, when the market crashed again following a bad Friday, we had the black Monday crash here in the states. I think the Dow Jones lost something like 20%. It was brutal. And I’ve only been in the business a couple of years when that happened.

[00:07:45]:
I became a broker in 1985, this happened in 87. But Ted was my mentor. And so as I watched. We had a tube system then red tickets going in were sell orders, white tickets going in. So we knew when brokers were walking up to the tube system, we knew what they were doing. It wasn’t a mystery. Starting at about one or 02:00 that afternoon, everybody was selling all red tickets going up the tube system. And people were freaked out, you know, and it was the exact wrong thing to do because a lot of it was, they weren’t putting limit order in, so you couldn’t put, how would you know what price to put in? It was taking hours even then to find out when you were filled.

So people were just selling at market. Talk about, you know, a lot of folks that made some career ending, career ending mistakes. I. There were, there were at least ten senior brokers that had been in the business kind of like as long as Ted had. And Ted was 65, at least, maybe 70 at that point when, when the 87 crash happened and they were putting market orders in so they didn’t find out for like three days what price they got for their clients. And when they found out they were all at the lows, all the market makers, traders filled them right at the lows of the day. By then, the markets that most stock had recovered 50% to 70% of their losses. It was devastating.

[00:09:06]:
But what was Ted doing? What was Ted doing? TED waited until about 30 minutes of the market closed and started putting buy orders in on his favorite blue chip stocks. IBM, Coca Cola, go down the list. JP Morgan. He started buying his favorite blue chips with market orders. 30 minutes for the close, and he just walk away from the tube and look at me, give me a little wink, little smirk on his face. I mean, I was like, oh, this is, this is, this. I’m watching. I’m watching.

You know, Michelangelo were here, right? And he just made a fortune from it. Later that summer or early in the next spring, Ted used the profits from, from that genius strategy. He had to pay cash for the sailboat of his dreams. It took Cindy and I on the maiden voyage, so got a lot of fond memories of Ted parsons. I miss you, my friend, and thank you again. I literally think about Ted. I don’t know. Every day is probably accurate, but a lot of days, more than once, what would Ted do? You know, how would Ted handle this? Because he rarely made mistakes.

He wasn’t a gunslinger. I’m a gunslinger. Ted was not a gunslinger. And he didn’t like that side of me, right. But, you know, I’m not going to change my thoughts at this point anyway. But that was really the only difference we had because we both were. We love the markets, you know, and we love finding out how it worked and looking at various ideas and anyway, I miss Ted, but I think he’s helped me and I hope he’s helped a lot of you from the lessons he’s taught me, because this was one of them, you know, buying when there’s blood in the streets and when there’s panic and when the Vix spikes over 50, that class that counts as panic. It could have gotten worse.

[00:10:56]:
Yeah, and that was my concern. Right. If that Monday sell off in Japan had spawned something else much worse than just 13.4%, then you bet. So again, that’s our ultimate black swan concern in my opinion, and something we have to keep a close eye on. But that’s also, by the way, why we diversify. Yeah, we’re aggressively along the market, unapologetically. It served us very well over the years. Again, we have a system for doing that called the very investing system and we use the ETF’s, which gives even a leveraged ETF still removes a lot of the risk of owning an individual stock.

We own a lot of those too, by the way. But if I had my druthers between trying to pick the one company in a sector, right, that’s going to go up or buying an ETF of the sector 9900 times I want to buy a sector ETF and that’s what we focus on here. And of course with our market timing system built in, the VR investing system, that makes that equation a lot easier. And that’s what’s so again, going back to last Monday, we can go Monday. That’s what’s so important about being able to do some very. And it is, it’s, it’s. I’m not a rocket scientist. I look at charts in a very simple way.

I look at trends, I look at support and resistance and obviously the moving averages and then the momentum oscillators. This is what we try to teach our folks here, because again, this is something anybody could do. Once you learn the basics of it, you start pick up your favorite maybe ten sectors or whatever, just look at those every morning or look at them once a week. And then when you see what happened last Monday when this happened again, we were all over this reporting at the time. SMH, the semiconductors, Nasdaq 100 and small caps all got shaken out and fell, just spiked below their 200 day moving average. This is a classic buy signal in the bull market because you just rarely get that opportunity right. And so if you have the base case. Right.

[00:13:02]:
That’s what we really rely on. Our base case is that this is that bull market. This is a generational bull market. We read about this two years ago in the big bride. And so this is not new from us. Right. This has been our view now for a while. And frankly, it goes back a little further, if I’m being honest.

Look, I won’t go into a whole lot of this detail, but we. We just come out of the worst two decades in american history, and there’s not a close second. Okay? Starting with 911, of course, the. The two wars, insanely ridiculous wars that followed the loss of life and treasure, as they say. I could really couldn’t care less about that. The loss of life. It’s not just loss of life, it’s the injuries. Over 100,000 american soldiers were injured.

And now we know what’s happened since then. Over 20, I think it’s 22 veterans commit suicide every day. My guess is that number has probably gone up some because I haven’t seen that in a while. But that’s what I remember seeing about a year ago. And then, of course, we’ll follow that. That was the financial crisis. That was basically Wall street and big banks attempt to take over the world, take over America financially. And they did that, right? And then they got bailed out with the $800 billion tart bailout after causing.

[00:14:27]:
After they caused it with these ridiculous derivatives instruments tied to housing, and then they got billed out. So, again, it’s just. It’s sickening, right? It really is sickening. And not. Not a single person prosecuted. Forget locking somebody up. They didn’t even indict a single person. Didn’t charge, didn’t indict a single person.

So, again, this is, by this point, my conspiracy theorist hat was been. Had been well developed. Okay? You live through a few big things like that where you know, you nothing but being lied to, and you go, okay, they’re not. They may be from the government, but they’re not here to help. They’re really the bad guys. So if they say something, you know, my first reaction now is they’re lying. I don’t believe anything that comes from the government. If you saw Kamala Harris’s.

And I forced myself to watch it today, her speech, I guess, in North Carolina, where she unveiled her economic agenda, it was paper thin, but it’s all. It was laugh out loud to say the truth. Of course, she’s reading from a teleprompter. Someone has told her that she must become more of a centrist. So that’s what she’s trying to do. But it’s a communist wearing a centrist hat because she’s talking about price controls. And that is, as Tyler said before the podcast, I guess you saw a Washington Post headline that said, if you’re tired of people calling you a communist, maybe don’t try to introduce price controls. I mean, not even that.

[00:16:04]:
She wouldn’t even know the reference. I’m sure she has no knowledge of the history of communism and the primary principles of it. Right. She’s just doing what she’s told to say. And then also for her to say this again, this is life out loud. Funny. On my first day in office, we’re going to start cutting regulations. This is the same person that wants to have government regulations on restrictions on everything, right? The Green New Deal for that $90 trillion.

The regulations there, they’re going to take place against the oil and gas industry. How do you reduce inflation? Get oil and price gases down, stop printing money, stop your insane government spending and let us drill, drill, drill, baby. And get oil and gas prices down. Your inflation problem is solved. It’s not more complicated than that. Price controls won’t do it. Charles Payne, just fantastic having you on the show again yesterday. I was pretty honored by the way I led off the show.

I think that’s the first time I’ve been the first guest on the show. It’s quite the honor because he does get, he really gets all the big names. So I’m not sure why he had me on, but I’m honored that he did. Great guy. Really, really good. Just a good human being, you know. But he was on Fox today, and I tweeted this out. Such a great quote.

Kamala Harris is all about starting a war on capitalism and picking winners and losers through the establishment of a gargantuan federal government. We don’t want that. That’s Charles Payne’s exact words. It’s, of course, a great quote. We don’t want that. And I just can’t imagine that she’s going to win. Of course, if she did, we know it’s going to be a rig job. I don’t know how to stop that at this point.

[00:17:45]:
You have to help people that are involved. This is what they do. Hopefully, they’re going to keep an eye on this because I think she’s going to need, my estimate is she’s gonna, they’re gonna need to come up with about 10 million votes to beat Trump, 10 million illegitimate votes to beat Trump. I’ve always believed that about Trump’s loss in 2020. What did they come up with? Probably five to 7 million votes. They’ll have more for her because she’s that bad of a candidate and she’s gonna be exposed. I know everyone’s worried about the polls and she’s riding high in her honeymoon. That ain’t.

Listen to me, folks. That ain’t gonna last. That ain’t gonna last. I think Trump and his team are handling this perfectly. They got the DNC convention coming up. Let that happen. And then start hitting it with both barrels because the ammunition is nonstop. There’s so many things.

And of course, it’s gonna be very important what Trump does at the debate, assuming that still happens. I have my doubts about that because she’s gonna get crucified, you know, also, and again, Tyler’s reminded me of this Elon Musk when he interviewed Trump on Twitter last, was it Monday? This week, Musk came out after the pod Senate during the podcast, and they came out with a separate tweet, said, I enjoyed that. President Trump, now Vice President Harris, you’re very, you’re more than welcome to. Come on. Please come and join. Let’s do it for you, too. And of course, crickets. And she’s not going to because she can’t have, because her ideas are indefensible when someone runs.

That’s why you never understood, like, why wouldn’t Hillary Clinton want to go on Fox? You know, during the 2016 campaign, they invited her. Invited her, invited her. She would never come on Fox. Why wouldn’t she do that? Because her ideas are indefensible. They have no defense. She’d be just like Gavin Newsom when he debated Ron DeSantis on Fox a few months ago, he was torn two shreds. It was an embarrassment for him. Their ideas are not defensible.

[00:19:44]:
So, you know, we just have to hope that we somehow win this and because if America were to legitimately elect Kamala Harris, heals up heels up. That’s who she is. Not Kankles. Kankles was 2016 Kankel Clinton, but heals up Harris. If America legitimately elected Kamala Harris, we would deserve all the agony, pain and misery coming our way because that’s how bad she is. Now, again, I’ll wrap this segment with this because I think it’s important. Remember, after Biden got elected, we had a bear market, a really horrible bear market. Over the next year.

It created a great buying opportunity, by the way, but it was a painful bear market right so I think that would happen with her, too. But I also think that the elite don’t like acting against their own self interest. And at the end of the day, I don’t know that the markets would be impacted that much. And I think longer term, again, because of the innovation revolution that’s underway, that’s just changing everything. We’re getting glimpse of it now through the AI. Now, tech companies in the United States have now spent $200 billion investing in their own businesses. Folks, you don’t have a recession, you don’t have an economic downturn where the leading sector for economic growth, technology, when it’s surging and companies are investing back into themselves for new technology. Aih, generative AI.

Again, we call it the innovation revolution because it’s so much broader than. It’s not AI. It’s all the other things that are happening that makes it so exciting. So, frankly, that’s why the markets are going up. I really don’t think we’re going to have a big shakeout, even if she wins, because the power of what’s happening with innovation and disruption is going to create so much economic growth, so many jobs, and bring down pricing, because, of course, that’s what innovation disruption does. It brings down inflation. That’s what I said on Charles yesterday. The Fed is so far off base, and it’s not because the economy is going into the toilet, not at all.

[00:22:05]:
It’s because inflation is no longer a primary theme and it’s only going to become, we’re likely going to, at some point in the next few years, deflation is going to be the primary topic. Now, Mark, mark this date down. I’m telling you, within three, four years, deflation. And this is, this applies to banks. This is the, this is the four letter word that banks and the Federal Reserve, central banks globally, never want to hear is deflation because it makes debt less valuable, makes the need for debt more relevant. That’s a problem for banks. Right? That’s how they make their money and that’s how the whole global economy works. It’s on the debt machine.

But I think you’re going to see, continue to see inflation collapse, disinflation grow. And again, the innovation revolution disruption will take through the rest of that. But that’s why the Fed saw off base. And on top of that, of course, the ten year yields at 3.9%, where the Fed funds rates is 5.33%. So they’re way off base. And yeah, they will be cutting rates. That’s one of our catalysts. I’ll come back to that in a minute.

But again, the classic buy signals we saw in the semis, we saw the same thing in Nasdaq 100 and then of course we saw it in Russ 2000. All three of them fell from either 52 week highs or all time highs in about three weeks into really painful sell offs. Remember, the semis dropped 26 26. I think it was 28%. The semis dropped in three weeks. That’s painful. That’s painful. But it’s also a great buying opportunity.

Yeah, so there’s that. But it’s been a great recovery. It’s been a very good week and a half for us here at the VRA with our positions. And I showed the chart this morning. The most important chart there is in the market because it’s a leader is the semiconductors. And I shared this chart with our folks this morning. It’s just textbook. It’s a textbook buy signal.

[00:24:09]:
We’re light years away from getting heavily or extreme overbought. And then that’s just on stochastics, RSI, MACD, money flows. I mean they’ve got even further to go. So we’re just now getting back past the 100 day moving average. And so now this next resistance, of course, the new 50 day and then back to all time highs. And I think that’s going to happen pretty fast. I think that’s, I do think it’s, I said on Charles’s show, I think we back to all time highs by the end of next month, frankly think. And that’s for everything.

That’s the semis too. The semis are going to be just a smoke show, right? Semis will be, they’ve been parabolic from those Monday lows. And I think that’s going to continue. So, yeah, that’s how we’re positioned heavy in tech semis, of course. And we want as much exposure to growth until momentum is possible. And yes, that also applies to bitcoin. I also want to talk a little bit today about, about gold and the miners. I feel like I was talking about something.

I forgot the primary subject when I got off base on hills of Paris. That’s okay. Let’s move on markets first and we’ll come back to some other areas of interest that we have. Dow Jones, we finished essentially at the highs today. Little bit off, but not by much. Dow Jones up 96 points quarter percent s 500 up two tenths 1% less 2000 of three tenths 1% Nasdaq up two tenths 1%. So all pretty much right there together. The semis today were flat.

And, you know, you know, we love our theme, right? Semis, lead tech, Nasdaq leads the rest of the market, right? Well, semis can’t go up every day. And this has been a parabolic. Already they’ve got a parabolic move higher off the low. So, you know, they’ve been up like 30% this week. So we’re going to give them a little room to sort things out, a little backing and filling. But I’ll be very surprised if the semis don’t just keep charging higher, because again, this is our catalyst, right? Nvidia, the chip company of all chip companies, the one that kicked off this AI boom in the first quarter of last year, just as the regional bank crisis was, you know, scaring the heck out everybody here came Nvidia saying, oh, no, look at what, look what we’re doing here. Look at the, look at the additional $10 billion we just made that no one knew we were making because we did it quietly, you know. And then after that, the AI bull market was born.

[00:26:41]:
So Nvidia is the most important still. It remains the most important company in America today. And they report earnings on August 28. That’s a catalyst, the other big catalyst, of course, the feds, Jay Powell’s presser, which is going to take place August 28. Well, that’s next weekend, right? I think he does it on a Sunday, is their, their tradition. And then the final one, the big one is, of course, the Fed meeting and first rate cut, which is September 17 18th, two day Fed meeting, followed by Jay Powell’s, followed by the FOMC statement, which comes at 02:00 p.m. eastern. Then 30 minutes later, pals presser and so I think we’re going to be taking some profits into that because I think by that point, again, I’m just guessing here, but I think the way things look, I would, I would expect that our markets are back to extreme overbought on steroids, okay, because everyone knows what’s about to happen, fed rate cuts.

So, you know, it’s not going to be straight up, but, boy, I do. I think we’re going to have a continuation of a really big move higher into these catalysts. I absolutely, absolutely do. It’s how we’re positioned. We’ve been right to be positioned this way and front running, which is something I’ve spent a lot of time talking about over the last couple of years because it’s happening faster and faster. You know, everybody’s got a calendar and everybody’s like, okay, so in three weeks this happens, four weeks this happens. Let’s, let’s try. These are the big catalysts.

Let’s get positioned for those if we have high confidence in what we think the outcome is going to be. And you tell me, what do you think Jay Powell is going to say at the press on August 24 next Sunday? I think he’s going to be full on dovish talking about rate cuts, don’t you? What about Nvidia earnings? Well, the stock’s already been destroyed. What stock dropped 50% or something. Right. So even if the number is bad, it won’t be. It’s baked into the cake. So again, that’s a positive, that’s a bullish catalyst. As the semis goes, so goes the broad market and the first rate cuts coming up next month.

[00:28:42]:
And so these are all catalysts, I think are highly predictable. And that’s what the smart money is doing now. They’re front running these and that’s what, that’s why this was in addition to our VR investing system, screens and indicators that told us back up the truck. Right. In addition to that, we’ve got this. So it’s both a technical and fundamental reasons to be, to continue to be, to continue to be bullish. Make no mistake about it, if you haven’t bought, it’s not too late. It’s still time to buy.

We’ve got a good Runway in front of us here. And again, I don’t like buying higher opens, but if we get a this morning, you know, we open down 100 points of the dow, that is it. That was a buying opportunity, and I think that’s what you want to look for. Look for shakeouts at the open. You know, I don’t really like to see them at the close. That’s the smart money hour. But the dumb money hour, if we get a big sell off in the dumb money hour, that is to be acted on, and I think those are the only dips we’re really going to get upsize again unless we have some kind of a big outlier. Right? Something that we don’t see coming.

All right, those are in place. That’s the primary takeaway. Talk about precious metals miners. Then we’ll move on here to the internals and wrap this podcast up. Okay. What a day today. Okay, first of all, we have been literally pounding the table on this group. And again, it surprises so many people.

[00:30:07]:
It does, it even surprises me when I run the numbers. I actually had to run the numbers two or three times on this to make sure I got this. Right, the SV 500 is up 30. These are approximations now, because I did this a couple days ago, but the S 500 is up about 36% from the bear market low. So it’s going to be like 40% now. Okay. But the gold is up 56%. And the miners, that’s GDX is up now over 70% in the same timeframe.

So both gold and the miners have outperformed the S and P 500. And I know that surprises people because I hear people all the time saying there’s no way that’s true. And it’s true. So what does that tell us? It’s a stealth bull market. We love stealth bull markets because they don’t say stealth for long. And you know what the tell is, if you’re listening to us here? The tell is GDX and volume. Okay? When GDX, the minority gold miner, ETF, when volume starts to come into it, look at above, because that means the institutions have finally started buying and they just haven’t. How do we know that even today with GDX up more than 3% today, as gold hits, another all time high goes up 2.3% today.

Right? Wow. Right? It’s a big move in gold. Big one day moving gold right now, trading it to 25, 46, all time high. Of course, you have this kind of a move taking place in gold, and yet the miners volume on GDX today was only 25 million shares. And frankly, that’s better than it has been. We’ve had most of our days. Recently was like 15 to 20 million shares, volume traded when this move gets going. But you can put this in stone when this move in, the miners gets going.

[00:31:53]:
And that’s why these are back up, the truck buys here. When this move gets going, GDX will be trading 60, 70, 8000 million shares a day plus. Okay, so four times more than it’s trading now. That’s when we know the big money has shown up, and it still hasn’t. I’ve been expecting it for a long time. I’ve been wrong about that. But we haven’t been wrong about the direction, have we? We’ve got the direction right. And then, so when that happens, guess what happens next? So this, this is a multi layered play here, right? And this is what we will be.

We’ll be walking you through all because fortunately, fortunes are going to be made here. Fortunes, absolute fortunes are going to be made here. And the miners, gold and bitcoin. Now, I kind of, I love them all together because frankly, they’re to me. They’re very similar investments. Of course, bitcoin is the ultimate supply demand story, but it’s also, it’s a digital thing. You don’t have power or if it gets hacked, you know, you can’t hack gold. You don’t need power for gold and silver, right? That’s why, you know, you must own both.

You must own both. You figure out what the split should be for you, right, with the percentage of both. That’s your call based on your belief system, your risk reward levels, all those things. But if you’re only a bitcoin guy, if you’re a hodler and you only own bitcoin, call me. Let’s spend five minutes talking so you understand what could go wrong. And that’s why diversification is so important. And that’s why, by the way, back to my Japan story as the ultimate black swan. You know what would happen to gold if the global financial system blows up? Well, we saw that in 2008 and we saw what happened, didn’t we? Gold got hit.

So the initial move is to just be patient and then be ready to buy. Go back and look at a chart of gold and GDX back in 2000 into 2008, folks, we loaded the boat in December of 2008, we bought Ivanhoe mines at share, wound up selling it for $22.22, $23 a share. Okay, we know this group and we know how to trade it and we know how to trade during geopolitical events in insanity. But bottom line is the reactionary move might be lower in gold and the miners and then, but that’s it. Once that bottoms in place and typically it doesn’t take long, we’re talking about maybe a week, two weeks, maybe a month if it’s really bad, like it was the financial crisis. Other than that, these, these, these blips are short term. And that’s, that’s when you pounce and buy. Or at least if you don’t do just hold, just don’t sell into the, the craziness, right? But when this group gets going after, against multi layer trade, after the goal after gold, which is gold’s done exactly what we thought it would do and it’s just going to keep going higher.

Our next target, by the way, is 2700. These are technical targets. And after that, 3000. Of course, that’s a big one. But $5,000 is our minimum bogey. And that’s over the next three to five years. It should happen a lot sooner. Of course, gold is manipulated, but we have to continue with that by the JP Morgan’s Goldman Sachs credit credit Swisses of the world.

[00:35:03]:
But back to GDX. When GDX starts to go, and I believe it’s already started, we see it in the returns, right. But the volume has shown up. The next thing is going to go are going to be the junior miners. And we own a couple of those. And I’m telling you straight up, we own two that are going to be high, high flyers, right? And they are snowline gold and Vista gold. Those are, those are the two we own. But it’s frustrating because they don’t, they just don’t do anything because they’re junior miners.

They don’t do anything until the flip is switched. And when that flip gets switched, it is Katy bar the door. It’s just gone. Because the people that own it, own it and they ain’t selling it. Right. We’ve been averaging down, we’ve been using dollar cost averaging all this time. We don’t care if Vista gold goes to a buck or $2. No, no, no.

We’re in this for much more than that. Snowline gold could go to ten right now and I wouldn’t sell because I think this is going to be one of the next great north american mining companies. What they’re finding is just outrageous in the Yukon. So there’s going to be a fortune being made here. We fully intend to make our fortune with it. And that’s why I always welcome this lower price prices both in gold and in the miners because I think we have a pretty good vision of where we’re going over the next 12345 years. Going to be explosive bull market. It’s going to be the strongest bull market that’s ever been seen in gold.

And the miners, that’s directly ahead of us in case you’re going. Well, kid, that sounds like a horrible setup for the rest of the markets. No, no, no. This is like going to be very similar to the 2003 to 2007 2008 bull market where gold, the miner, silver, too gold, the miners and stocks all went higher together. And then of course, we had the financial crisis and then it started again. But that’s when we had the really explosive move in gold and the miners through 2011. And then it started a ten year bear market after that. So let’s try to block that out still it was that painful, but.

[00:37:02]:
So, yeah, I think the markets and gold and the miners will move up together much like they did from 2003 to 2007. So just to lay any of those fears, in case you’re wondering about that. So, yeah, gold today, again, gold all time highs. GDX, the minority gold miner ETF, up 3.1% today. And believe it or not, it’s still. Yeah. The 52 week high was 3941. In GDX.

It’s only 38.45 now. So we’re still a buck a share, essentially below the 52 week high. So, you know, we are aggressive along this group as we. And we are as well in our parabolic options program. And I just love this setup here. I added two positions today, as a matter of fact, I tend to do that a fair amount when I’m. When I have this hunch, you know, that. Here we go.

Well, that’s the feeling that I have right now about this group. But, again, this has been a great buying opportunity. It’s been a great shakeout. Again, our base case is what is what we kept confidence in. This is the roaring 2020s. We have a structural bull market, a generational bull market in place, led by an innovation revolution that will take the Dow Jones past 100,000 and Nasdaq past 40,000. And that’s why we will continue to buy dips, which is the smartest, smart money strategies for that now for two years. All right, let’s take a look at the internals today.

Good internals. Good internals. We had 59.3% of bot. Not great, but good. 59. Again, coming up on monster day yesterday. 59.3% up volume. NYSE, 69.1% up volume in Nasdaq.

That’s very good. Two to one, an advanced decline for NYC, better than two to one. Two and a half to one for Nasdaq. This is a good day today. And we had 246 stocks hitting high to 109, hitting a new 52 week low. The internals have held up, except for that black Monday in Japan that led over, spilled over into our markets. Those were ugly internals that day. Like, eight to one advanced decline, negative.

[00:39:03]:
But besides that, we had 94% down volume, by the way, on that day. But outside of that, the internals have been really, really good. I remember Tyler doing podcasts even last year, like, what is wrong with these internals? How’s the market still going up this much? Right? But again, that was another tell. That was another tell that something else is going on here, because all that matters at the end of the day is the direction of the market. Right? If you get that right, you’ve solved most of your problems in our sector. Watch today. Also, very good day here. Eight of eleven sectors finished higher.

Not a lot either way, frankly. Our leaders financials up 610% to 1% to the downside. Industrials down two tenths of 1%. Really not much there. Again, commodity watch kind of already covered this a little bit. Gold, up $54 an ounce. Yeah, for gold, it happened on Friday. Yes.

Up 2.2% at 25.46. Silver today, also a better than 2%. Up $0.66 an ounce at 29.08. Again, I like silver as well. I’m just a gold bug. I’ve always been a gold bug. We own both, but 80 20 is kind of the split here. Copper, 450 a pound.

That’s up slightly on the day. Crude oil down 2% of the day, down $1.57 a barrel at 76.59. Love the energy stocks. Not so sure about crude oil here. Energy stocks still have their cash cow machines, and they’re great buys here. Not so sure about oil just in the short term. However, seasonality, the primary concern there. And then finally the bitcoin.

Bitcoin right now has had a nice recovery day. You know, it’s interesting, it’s kind of lagging the market now. Bitcoin goes through the cycles where it leads or lags to the market. The most explosive moves come when it’s leading the stock market. It’s not leading the stock market right now, so just there’s that. Hard to quantify that. I know, but it’s just an observation. Bitcoin today up 2.6% at just over 59,000.

Love bitcoin here. Buy on every pullback that you have the opportunity to, because it’s going to 100,000 by year end, and then in the next two to four or five years, 250,000 is our minimum target. All right, folks, that’s it for the day. Hey, hope you had a great day. Even better weekend. And we’ll see you back here again Monday after the close.