In today's episode, Kip dives into the latest market action, celebrating new all time highs in tech, the semiconductors, and the Nasdaq, and explains why this bull market is textbook, don’t listen to the naysayers! Kip breaks down the bold calls the VRA team made earlier this year, from plunging interest rates to shifts in mortgage rates and what that means for investors as we head into the midterms and beyond. He explores how changes at the Fed, Trump’s policy pivots, and a potential “rocket fuel” drop in mortgage rates could send the market even higher. You’ll get insight into why Kip expects next year to be a blockbuster for stocks, with predictions of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq delivering outsized gains. He also shares his candid views on political developments, the importance of optimism in investing, and the risks and rewards in gold, bitcoin, and standouts like Tesla.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Monday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day. Hope your weekend was fantastic as well. I know ours was here in Sugar Land, Texas, getting some nice fall weather starting to come in. In other words, we can come outside and spend two minutes outside watering the plants or whatever and not have to come back in and take another shower. That’s what I mean by it’s getting a little cooler.

In some fall weather here in Sugar Land. It’s not getting beyond 92, 94. So real cold front blowing through in Sugar Land. You know, global warming. What are you going to do, right? What are we going to do about it? I remember, by the way, growing up, I remember every summer it being 105 to 110. I remember playing basketball outside at a playground that didn’t have water. And we stayed out there all. I don’t know how we did it, but, you know, let’s just face it.

[00:00:53]:
We’ve gotten soft as a people, right? You got to have your water bottle over you go. We didn’t have any, any of that. And it was hotter than that. It is now. That’s what I remember. Now. We still have some hot summers here, don’t get me wrong. But not as hot as I had growing up, not as sad as we had.

And so again, we like to keep everything in perspective here. But again, appreciate you being with us here today. What a day. What a day. What a day. Tyler just reminded me, all time highs today in the semis, all time high in tech, nasdaq. That’s textbook, folks. That is X.

Absolutely bloody textbook bull market action. Anyone that tells you otherwise is a fool. And I’m sorry, I just have to be very direct. You know, we’re Texans here, right? We like to call like we see it. And that is how we do things. In case you’re new here, welcome. We, we form opinions on things and we tell you what we think. If we don’t know the answer, we tell you we don’t know the answer.

[00:01:47]:
We try to stay in our lane. We cover what we’re good at. We use the VRE vesting system. The things I’ve learned over my 40 years and what we do. And I don’t know that this is really appreciated. Maybe I come across because Tyler doesn’t. He’s not this way at all. Maybe I come across like a know it all, you know, and maybe I come like an asshole from time to time because we do take Strong positions.

But my view is that if I’m listening to someone and that’s what you’re doing, you’re paying us for our opinions and for our equity recommendations and otherwise. Right. If I’m listening to someone and I invest my time, my money, as you’re doing here, I want to know what the hell they think. I want to know straight up. Don’t tell me this, that or the other can happen. And don’t hedge all your bets. Tyler talks about this a lot too. No, we’re going to tell you what we think.

You may remember at the beginning of the year we made some pretty bold calls, Right. I wrote this up this morning, beginning of the year, just after the election. Okay. Before Trump was inaugurated. We told you that the two big, two of the big calls we were making for the year, these were bold calls from us and they flew in the face of a lot of people were saying, we said rates were going to plummet lower. Well, we’re down from 4.8% right at the time we made that call to today is 3.98%. That’s on the 10 year. Okay.

[00:03:05]:
And rates will continue lower. That’s what’s going to happen Once J PAL is gone in May of next year. They’ll really start to plummet. Once the 30 year mortgage rate, which is down to around 6.2% now, again, also down from about 7.1% at the time of the inauguration. Once the 30 year mortgage, take this to the bank. Once the 30 year mortgage rate drops below 5%, which we believe, which we’re pretty confident in, which is going to happen next year. Let’s just look, we’re going to have a different Fed chair. We’re going to have a completely different makeup of the Federal Reserve and it’s going to, it’s going to be made in Trump’s image.

You may not like sound that maybe you think the Fed should be independent. That shouldn’t happen. That’s all nonsense. The Fed’s never been independent. If you know the truth about the Federal Reserve about. How about the time that Lyndon Baines Johnson took his Federal Reserve chairman, put him up against the wall, almost choked the life out of him because he’s like, I need you to do this, why aren’t you doing it? Okay. A lot of battles like that, as far as I know, Trump hasn’t choked anybody, almost choked somebody out, much less Jay Powell. But in this case, Trump’s exactly right.

And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant is exactly right. The second America is being Destroyed, not because we have a weak economy, but because interest rates are way too high. Trump’s been exactly right about this. Jay Powell’s been exactly wrong about this. So next year, when 30 year mortgage rates drop below 5%, and it’ll start happening before that. Matter of fact, it’s already, you start to see, you starting to see mortgage originations, you’re starting to see home sales, you’re starting to see HELOCs begin to come back to life. But once they get below 5%, you’re going to see again, as I wrote this morning, it’ll be rocket fuel. It’ll be rocket fuel for the stock market, but especially for the positions we’re invested in.

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Here’s why. If you, if you’re here with us, you know how we’re positioned. I’m kind of guilty a lot of times of giving away our positions on these podcasts. That’s not, that’s not, that’s not, that’s not right for our members. So I’m going to kind of check myself on this. But if you’re not with us, come join us@vrainsider.com vrainsider.com check it out for two, three weeks. You know, it’s a couple thousand. It’s not that it’s like seventeen hundred dollars a year.

And you can pay quarterly. You pay however you want to pay here. Call the staff if you want to put together a unique payment plan or you want to pay us in cattle or something. You know, we’re open, we’re in Texas here. We’re very, we’re all hat, all cattle here. But, you know, we think it’s worth it and we think the returns we put up prove it. We beat the markets 18 to 21 years. This year we’ll make 19 of 22.

We’re up about after, after the start. We’ve got to, through the end of the third quarter. We’re up 41% for the year. It’s a, be a good year for us. But, you know, we’ve had some years that, that, that, let’s see, I’ve got it right in front of me. Let me just, we should probably write this up, you know, for everybody so you can see this. Let me just give you our best returns. Okay? 2012, we were up 160%.

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Oh, the best year was 2009. That’s 360%. We’ve got a lot in the 30, 40, 50, 60% range. So we’ve had some real good years again, 20, 23, up 50% last year. Up 27% again. These, these all beat the market. And I think this year, because we expect the fourth quarter to be really good, we’re in that period now, by the way. We have entered the best time frame of the year to be in the market.

And I think there’s a pretty good chance we finished the year up 60% plus. And then, as you’ve heard it say, unless it’s your first time here. And again, if it is, welcome, I think next year is going to be really one of those years, not just for our portfolio, but for the markets. I think this SPF 100 will be up more than 30% next year. I think NASDAQ could be up more than 50% next year. And, and get used to those kinds of returns. This is that bull market, folks. This is a generational bull market.

That’s not just hype from us, okay? We put our money where our mouth is. What we recommend is what we own, the right, our family office. These are our positions here. And so, yeah, I think it’s going to be again, as I wrote this morning also, and I’ve talked about this a little bit on the podcast here, people, and I think it’s one of the things that’s maybe most underrated about where we are in this investing cycle. Trump knows how important the midterms are and his team knows how important they are. Next year’s super important because if Republicans can, I don’t mean run the table, but if they can have a great year, it’s a great look. We have a great economy, right. And we have a great stock market.

[00:07:47]:
We know that voters vote with their pocketbook if they can fix these rigged election systems. Okay, go back to paper ballots. I don’t even know if that’s completely necessary because I just don’t think Republicans are going to win California. How do you clean that mess up in the next, you know, less than a year. Right. Again, it’s November of last year, next year. But, you know, work would have to be done well in advance of that. How do you fix Illinois? How do you fix New Jersey? I don’t know that you fix New Jersey.

I don’t know how that happens. But in the outliers in the states that are purplish. Right. Which basically includes Texas now because our Rhino, Governor Greg Abbott wheels, as we less than affectionately call him, not, not making fun of his, of his situation. He’s earned that, though. I believe he really has earned that because he is a Rhino of the really of the worst degree because he pretends to be such a conservative and behind the scenes. I recommend you follow Brian Harrison, Congressman here in Texas. Brian Harrison, who is bringing all this stuff out to life for us about how liberal this state has become for our, for our, our state officials here.

Democrats essentially run the state anyway, point being, if we can just get this cleaned up a bit. So let’s just say it’s a fair election next year because Democrat party is the party of this party of morons. That’s what it’s become, the party of insane people. And again, I’m a lifelong independent. If anybody can call, call them that because I voted for a lot of Democrats in my lifetime. If anybody can. I voted for Barack Obama Because McCain, no, not after Bush. There was no way I was voting for him.

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But I had to vote for somebody, right? So, yeah, I voted for Obama, just proving my point. I also voted for Jimmy Carter, by the way, over Ronald Reagan. I was 18. Big mistake, right? But I learned a lot from it. The media affected me there. I bought into the media. I thought I could trust them. I learned a lot as an 18 year old in that 1980 election.

But if we just have an honest and somewhat honest and fair election next year, midterms, and the Republicans pick up another 30, 40 seats in the House and maybe add to their Senate majority by two or three seats now you’re talking about having the ability to make real lasting change. And think about how far we would have come then in just a couple of years from where we would have been had Kamala won. Don’t even remember how she pronounced. We’ve all heard her pronounce it different ways, her own name. Okay, so, yeah, I mean, in the span of a couple of years, this country can have a complete transformation. And, and that’s why I believe, and why I continue to tell everyone that will listen to me. Look, I know you got your problems with Trump. I mean, everybody’s.

No one’s perfect. You’re not going to find anybody. You grew with everything on. But look at the alternative and look at how important the midterms are next year. Trump. My point being Trump knows this. Bessant knows this. His entire financial team knows this.

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Have you noticed how quickly they react to economic issues now? Look, for example, anyway, I think they know the midterms are. They’re going to put everything, all the power they have into forcing the economy and the markets higher. That’s exactly what they’ve been doing, is exactly what the one big beautiful bill is next year, folks. I know there’s A lot of haters out there about Trump’s tariffs. Okay, look, I was top of that list, if you remember, last April. Okay, Top of that list because the rollout was horrible, right? And I was, I was one of the biggest voices, at least, you know, people that. People of people that I know saying it. Wayne Root wasn’t saying it, of course, but by the way, by the end of it, I even got Wayne to call Trump.

And this is a story never told before. I said, wayne, you got to do something, man. This market’s about to crash. He called Trump. Not that I had any effect on this, but I would tell you, the very next day is when Trump paused the tariffs. Now, Trump was hearing from everybody. I’m not trying to take credit for this, but even I’m saying as big a supporter of Trump as Wayne is, Wayne Allen Root, our great friend. Wayne agreed.

Okay? So again, I don’t agree in lockstep with, with, with anyone, but I do think it’s important to look past some of the more minor differences you might have with Trump, for example, on tariffs. And I know there’s a lot of people that really hate Trump’s position on tariffs. And you may not. May behave even more over the weekend because we found out over the weekend from a piece in the Wall Street Journal. This is pretty. It’s one of the reasons the market is up so big today. Wall Street Journal reported. I’m going to get this right.

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That Trump in recent weeks, now, this is behind scene. We didn’t know this until over the weekend. Trump has exempted dozens of products from his reciprocal tariffs and also offered to accept hundreds more. Reflecting an increasingly shared. This is direct quote, excuse me, reflecting an increasingly shared sentiment among administration officials that the US should lower duties from some goods that are not domestically produced. Now, that makes perfect common sense, does it not? This is the kind of thing I’m talking about. Trump has also come out and said now publicly he’s much more optimistic about a potential trade deal with China. Right.

That’s all changed, has it not? Just a week ago, the market almost crashed because Trump put another 100% tariffs on China. Right. Well, that didn’t go over too well. So now he’s made a new outface. Also, Bessant just said on Friday he thinks that things have de. Escalated Again, exact quote, things have de. Escalated. And he’s meeting with his counterpart, the Chinese vice premier.

I could try to say his name, but I would botch it horribly in the coming weeks. So Trump has become optimistic about a potential Trade deal. Besant is the same way. And again they’re making pivots very fast now. And I believe the primary reason for that is they want this economy cooking with gas and that’s what these tariffs are going to do. Again, not that the media has been reported this. Maybe, maybe I’m going to tell you and you never heard it before I say it right now, we just had 198 billion dollar trade surplus. Did media cover that? I heard maybe one or two mentions.

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Right. And that was on conservative media. Nowhere will you find that on cnn, probably even cnbc, msnbc, certainly. I think Bloomberg might have said it. Once again they under the breath. Right. And I have yet to hear anyone except Fox. And this was said by the way, in a.

Eric Trump said this in an interview with Wayne over the weekend of Wayne’s Real American Voice show on Saturday. And I’m going to give him credit for this this morning in the letter. I apologize, Wayne, for not doing this because Eric Trump announced and this has been confirmed, $17 trillion has now been committed from other countries to invest in the United States. Seventeen Biden couldn’t get 1 trillion and in nine months Trump has got $17 trillion. So regardless of what you may think about Trump or his trade policy or his tariff policy, let’s play the same ballgame heading into the midterms. Let’s be on the same team to make sure we pull the stops out for the midterms because I believe that’s exactly what Trump and team are doing now. Okay? Okay. So again, we made big calls last year about rates and about the US Dollar.

Both have gone exactly the direction we thought they go. We take big positions, we tell you what they are, we back them up with our research. If we’re wrong, well, we tell you we are wrong. But I gotta tell you, it’s been a very good run for us. Look, we work very hard at what we do like you do and we don’t like. I don’t like being wrong. I don’t know about you. I do not like.

[00:15:33]:
It drives me absolutely crazy to be wrong. That’s just the competitive side of me. Okay? But I think that, I think that’s why I think combined all of this is going to have this market melting up next year into the midterms. Democrats will be, they’ll be powerless to stop it and it should result in a freight train of an election. And again, I’ll repeat what I’ve said often here because I think this can’t be overstated. And more people should say it. If you’re getting your views from the likes of the Federal Reserve, the bls, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, cnbc, blah blah, blah, you should expect to continue to be wrong a lot. Our view remains America’s best days are directly ahead.

This is a high confidence call from us and that’s why we think these dips like we saw last week will continue to be light. Remember why we had the dip last week? Do you remember what happened? Regional banks and Zion jp, Jamie Dimon, who I covered last week, the criminal CEO of JP Morgan. I mean he is, he’s been found guilty in a felony. All right. Of felony wrongdoing in these, in these attempts to manipulate and control the precious metals markets. He was a named defendant in that lawsuit and they settled for $920 million. That marked in 2020 marked the lows for gold. You see gold today.

Whoo. Up 3.7%. So many people over the weekend called a top in gold. No, not even close. And, but again, we think our best days are ahead of us. This is a high confidence call and that look, we track the things we’ve always tracked. Okay. I wrote this up this morning.

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Our favorite market timing indicator. And if you notice at all, you’ve heard us say this. Me and Tyler say this a thousand times each. We track a relative strength chart of the semis to the S&P 500. Relative strength charts is kind of a, kind of our thing, right? You know, GDX to gold, XLE to oil. And this one, the most important, probably not probably is from the birth of Quantitative Easing 2009, the semis to the SP 500. If the semis are outperforming the market, you must be long stocks. That’s the one thing that’s held, held up from quantitative easing.

I don’t know that it’s ever been wrong. I’m talking about not, not over a few days, but of course, but a longer term trend. I do not remember it ever being wrong. If the semis are leading in either direction, that’s the direction the market wants to go. And we’re seeing it again. I shared the chart this morning. Just on Friday, Thursday or Friday, this relative strength chart hit another, another high for the year and it marked the lows on April 7, the day the market bottom. It’s just a gorgeous looking chart and you know, it’s not, it’s not straight up, of course and you can see when the markets have dips in this chart, you know, but they’ve all been resolved higher.

You Know, it just, just pauses, and then the next move up to another high for the year. So we’re going to keep using that because it’s the most important repeating pattern that we’ve seen. Of course, repeating patterns are the basis of technical analysis, and this one is the best that we know of. But again, Zions, last week, Zions, remember Zions Bancorp, they announced the 50. They were pre announced they’re going to have, like, a $50 million loan loss. Jamie Dimon had just called credit cockroaches. There’s a lot. If there’s one of them, there’s a lot more of them.

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Well, he had one. J. J.P. morgan had one. That’s what he was talking about. He was gaslighting. And then it just so happened, okay? Zion said, well, JP Morgan’s going to announce one. We might as well get ours out of the way, too.

And that’s what happened here. So they announced a 50. Listen, this is a $50 million loss would be announced when they announced earnings. That did. They just did at the close today. Zion stock got hammered on this because Jamie Dimon had just, you know, said, look out. And here’s a cockroach, right? Zion got hit. Well, since then, check out the chart.

They announced earnings today. Yeah, they had that $50 million loss on total assets of $78 billion. $78 billion. You want to talk about chump change, something tiny. And all these bears out there, we’re screaming from the rooftops. Here we go. This is the banking we’ve been telling you, folks. We’ve been telling you the banking.

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It’s gonna take us all down. What do we tell you? No, it’s not going to happen. Regional banks simply aren’t as important as they used to be. Number one, far fewer regional banks than it used to be managed much less money, and have fewer loans than they used to. And the major banks that reported last week just crushed it. Right? I mean, they all crushed. Right. And, and so, you know, when that’s the situation, when you have a strong banking system and the banking system has literally never been stronger than it is today, and that’s.

That’s not even up for debate. You. That’s not. You can’t even debate that. So again, all the bears out there that are claiming otherwise, and they’re everywhere on social media, you’ve no doubt seen Bloomberg, seem they all love to parrot this. Oh, here. Oh, look, here we go. Jamie Dimon said, credit cockroaches.

And look, here they come. And so, yeah, kre, the regional bank ETF got hit because again, it was in the most volatile time of October. This is when these things happen in October. And but as we told you, it was going to set up the next re buying opportunity and that’s what it is. So Zion Teddy on earnings is up, only up 8% on earnings because that’s all they had. They had no other significant losses whatsoever. And yeah. So thank you again, Jamie Dimon, for, for that piece of work there, because you are a piece of work.

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A lot of people saying this is a bubble. You’ve no doubt seen this. It’s everywhere. You know, and the one thing I’ll tell you is when I have to laugh because when, when the public and some of these like Paul Krugman’s of the world. I mean, remember Paul Krugman, Nobel prize winning economist for the New York Times, Right. Who also happened to say years ago that the fax machine would make the Internet essentially obsolete. The fax machine would make more money than the Internet. Paul Krugman said this.

That’s not a joke. But when you have people like that that are out there, you know, scaremongering and fear mongering. Right. And saying this is a bubble. Oh, it’s a bubble. What’s his name from CNBC, Andrew Al Sorkin, 60 Minutes last week. Yep. Yeah.

I can’t tell you exactly when, but yeah, we’re going to have a crash. I mean, what. That’s just garbage. It’s just clown world garbage. And I think if you’re a serious investor, you recognize it for what it is. Not useful at all. You know, I mean I would be, if I, if I wrote those words and said those words, I would be so embarrassed. I think I would take a month off.

[00:22:38]:
I would realize how ridiculous that just sounded. Okay. And, but again, the point being when all these people are calling us a bubble, guess what? It’s not. It’s not a bubble. Bubbles pop and they catch everybody by surprise. That they don’t happen when everybody’s calling for one now. So you’re asking my opinion again, we’re very plain spoken here. Is this a bubble? Hell no.

No, it will be. It will be. We’re headed that way. But no, it’s not. We haven’t even. This thing is just getting underway. The innovation revolution is just getting started. We’re, we haven’t even had the cool announcements yet.

A brand new technology we didn’t even know they were working on. That’s coming. That is coming now. We know what’s happening with autonomous again, Tesla Has a lot of these stories, don’t they? Autonomous vehicles, robotics. Right. We know what, of course, Musk is doing with SpaceX. And again, imagine the jobs can be created. Space exploration and travel and tourism.

[00:23:38]:
You know, that’s just starting. It could be AI is going to create again for those that. And they’re everywhere. The people that say that AI is going to destroy the workforce. Excuse me, I have to laugh in your face. There’s never been a time in US or human history where technological advances have destroyed more jobs than they’ve created. You know, the famous analogy is always the New York Times again. New York Times, here we go again.

Back in the day running a cover story that the horse and buggy industry was going to be destroyed by Henry Ford. Oh, my God, the calamity, right? Can you even imagine? That was actually what it said. People are up in arms about that. I mean, anyone with an IQ above 50 has to look at this and go, what? No, I mean, and just. I’m telling you that AI is going to create many, many, many millions of jobs along with brand new industries that don’t even exist today. And those that are just really getting started, just having the birth right now. So it’s an amazing time to be alive. The Jetsons come to life.

That’s the name of my, of my, of my Tesla, by the way, is Jetson. We are there and it’s finally happening. And yeah, it’s, it’s. Enjoy this, man. This is just a great. There’s never been a better time to be an optimist. And I’ll just say, I say this every now and then. I’ll say it today because I think it’s a really true point that I just don’t hear anywhere else.

[00:25:07]:
I have really had no patience for pessimists in my life. I’ve just reached the point. I’m 63, right, and I think I know what works. I think I know it doesn’t. I know pessimism does not work. It’s a sure road to unhappiness and failure. Because name one person that you respect a lot. Somebody you’d like to emulate or you’d like to have their success or their money or their lifestyle or their business.

You’d like to create what they’ve created. Name one of those people that was not an extreme optimist. You can’t do it. You can’t do it, so stop fighting. And this, this again, it’s a sign up of negativity. We’re bombarded with negativity just, you got to fight through that. Right? I think that’s something we all have to do. We can do it collectively, together as a community here.

That’s why we spend time talking with you here about it. And again, a lot of what you hear me talk about comes from Manifest yout Destiny, Dr. Wayne Dyer. It is the book that I believe everyone should read. And if you want to pick a second, then think and grow rich. I used to have those reversed. Now it’s Manifest yout Destiny for me. And I think it’s a phenomenal book.

[00:26:18]:
I think everybody should read this book and should commit to reading it at least a couple of times a year. It’s literally changed my life because it’s changed the way I think about things. Knowing that what I think about, I bring about. I mean, I’ve just kind of told you the whole book right there, but it breaks it down into exactly why this works in every area of your life. And so it’s just a phenomenal read. I recommend everybody read that book again. Manifest yout Destiny, Dr. Wayne Dyer.

What else today? Kevin Hassett said today that the shutdown could end this week. I’ve really not read that piece in detail. I just saw, quote, tesla reports earnings on Wednesday. Stock was up. Nice. Today we’re at 446 on Tesla. And it’s the one portfolio holding that I talk about all the time because it’s the one stock to own for the innovation revolution is up today about 1.6% to 446. And again earnings after the close.

I think it’s going to be a monster beat. And again it’s. Everyone will go, yeah, of course it is because everyone’s taking advantage of the expiring tax credit. So they, they all the demand was pulled forward. But what will they do after this kip? How will the next quarter be? And I just don’t care. I just don’t care because I’m not buying the stock for evs. As much as I love their evs, I’ll. I will always own a Tesla.

[00:27:35]:
I have never said that about any car I’ve owned. And I will always own a Tesla. Matter of fact, I’m probably going to be buying a new one here soon. I’ll share that story when I do. But it’s the one stock to own. The EVS are amazing. There’s, there’s, there’s no car on the road like this. But I, that’s not why I’m buying the stock.

I just happen to love the car of course, Musk and everything that they do at Tesla. But the real reason is robotics and it’s autonomous transportation. The Cyber Cab or the Robo taxi, depending on what you want to call it. Officially from Tesla’s point of view, it’s Cyber Cab. From the industry point of view, they call it the Robo taxi, in case you’re wondering. So Cyber Cab is what we tend to call it here. And again, Tesla Energy. Watch.

What I’m very interested and I’ll write this up probably tomorrow morning in our letter. I’m. Of all the things they’re going to report again, I think they’re going to have a monster beat in the third quarter, but I think they got new models coming out. I think the EV story looks very good here. But I’m really looking forward to seeing what Tesla Energy does because it’s a story not many people are talking about. They’re growing at 100% a year. Okay. It’s the fastest growing division Tesla has.

[00:28:49]:
That won’t be the case for long of course, once Cybercab and Optimus comes out that, that won’t be the case anymore. But it is now. And I think it’s the area that could most surprise institutional investors and analysts who have this story. Exactly. Retail investors get it institutional. Like last start we heard from Factset 46 or 48% of analysts. Only 46, 48% of analysts have a buy recommendation on Tesla. So they, they’ve been exactly wrong.

Of course stocks had a pretty good, a pretty good run here. But Tesla Energy, especially with all these data centers, right? And utilities that have to find a way to grow their output. Well, this is what Tesla Energy does. You know, they had these massive, basically big storage batteries, right, that are just huge. And you know, this way you don’t have brownouts and surges. You know, you’ve always got that. And that’s really important. Of course these data centers, they can’t afford any of that.

Got to be reliable for these. And these Tesla big battery packs, they’re called something else by the way. I should know that. But they’re going to be everywhere, all over the world. And that’s why this division is growing so fast. And so there’s just a lot to love about the story. I think the stock is technically, the stock looks fantastic again. 446.

[00:30:04]:
Now our year end target from the beginning of the year was 500. Well, we should blow past that probably this week. And I hate to. I normally don’t make short term calls like that. But the chart looks like that. It’s been coiling. And our technical target for year was 598. I think we go through that.

As I’ve said, I won’t be surprised if Tesla closes, you know, trades over 700 this year. And then our 2028 price target had been 2000. We’re gonna have to raise that because you’re gonna blow past that too, right? What else? Today, bitcoin had a nice reversal here against. Been trading on a really kind of a technical level. It’s also lost some. Some energy because of gold. You know that gold suffered for many years because of the success of bitcoin. So to people that are whining about that on the bitcoin side, I have no compassion for you.

But my point being, as it’s always been on both. What’s wrong with you? Why wouldn’t you want. Why do you only got to own bitcoin? Own both. It served us extraordinarily well, and I think it will continue to. We love both. We own both. And we own more gold than bitcoin. Just because gold is gold.

[00:31:12]:
It’s the original currency. It’s the only true currency. And, you know, we’ve loved it for a very long time here. My dad’s a gold bug, I’m a gold bug. Tyler’s a gold bug. Sam’s a gold bug. Cindy’s a gold bug. We’re a family of gold bugs.

And it is very rewarding, I must tell you, to see gold doing what it’s doing. But this move today. Holy cow. Let’s get a. Get a last trade here for you. Yeah. Gold was only up $160 an ounce today. 3.8% to 4374 almost.

It came the two and a half bucks away from hitting 4400 announced for the first time. And as I shared this morning in our letter and in a social media post to everyone that said the top is in for gold. No, no. This bull market is just getting started. Here’s the primary reason for that. And by saying this, I don’t have to make a prediction, although our forecast is 15,000. But I think this gives you a different perspective on why gold is where it is. Gold should have been here a decade ago.

[00:32:11]:
Gold is if you. If you’re a gold bug, Silver bug, you know exactly what I’m talking about. How infuriating was it? I know we have a lot of gold and silver bugs on this call. Congratulations to you. You know what? You’re rock stars. Because you know what? Seriously, Unlike the bitcoin people, who are just pretty obnoxious, by the way. They just are. They’re not very likable.

They, oh, gold sucks. You know, it’s just they’re very. I don’t know, they’re just not very self aware really, if I’m being honest about it. They hate gold. That just shows they’re jealous. It’s like Texas and A M. You know, all the Aggies. Hey, Texas.

And Texas is like, well, who are you? I mean, that’s just. That’s just kind of a nothing. I’m not knocking A M fans. What? We have a lot in our family, by the way, so apologies if that offend anybody, but that’s kind of the way it is in Texas. And it really is kind of the way it’s been with gold and bitcoin. Gold owners just don’t care. Like, yeah, again, we own bitcoin too, but we’ve always rooted for bitcoin. It’s fantastic.

[00:33:07]:
But it’ll never be gold. It just will never be gold. Because gold is gold. And it just has all the advantage you want. And a true store of value. A true store of value, right, that you can touch, that electricity can go down, right. You can’t be hacked. I mean, they’re just these things about gold.

And when you can grab something and hold it, especially something as beautiful and heavy as gold is, right. There’s something very special about that. But again, why should gold have been 43, $4,400 a decade ago? Well, if you know the manipulation story, I talked about it a bunch over the last couple weeks. It’s because it has been. It’s been dastardly manipulated. Lower. By the major money center banks. J.P.

morgan, of course, head of that group, Goldman Sachs, some international banks as well. Central banks, of course, as well. And I think that’s what’s happening now is that. And we know this from the unbelievably great work, the yeoman’s work, the legendary work of the Gold antitrust action Committee. Just spend some time researching this group data. G A T A as it’s a as it’s shortened. Do some research into these guys. I met them 25 years ago or something for the first time at a.

[00:34:22]:
At a precious metals conference. And they were talking about this. They’re like, look, you know what? This, this sucks because we’re spending our own money. You know, we know we’re being. Our business is being manipulated. Lower. As are yours. We think it’s horrible.

It’s illegal. It shouldn’t be happening. We have people that work in CFCT and they’re telling us this is happening, like, you know, just insiders that are, that are, you know, just telling them the truth. And like, we’re going to have to take action here. So we’re forming a group called gata and we’re going to have to do all the, you know, background work, the discovery work to file the lawsuits. It’s going to start, you know, in district court. It’s going to work its way up. It’s going to try federal court.

It’ll probably get kicked out. They did all of that, all of that. And it finally paid off when, when gold. JP Morgan was forced to settle that suit in 2020 for $920 million, admitting to manipulating gold and silver lore for a very long time. Well over a decade. Well over a decade. And again, 420 million of that was a criminal penalty. Okay.

[00:35:33]:
There’s, there’s never been a larger penalty paid in the U.S. i think, I think, I think Pfizer wound up, but that I’m talking about, you know, in a financial settlement. Right, but pretty good company right there. Pfizer with, with J.P. morgan. Those are two Ps in a pot, are they not? But that marked the low. Gold was fourteen hundred dollars. Now, in 2020, that lawsuit, in my opinion, marked the lows.

That settlement marked the lows. And now we’ve had true price discovery. And I believe that’s exactly what’s happening here. It’s why gold is not overvalued. Gold should likely be $10,000 an ounce today. If it’s not 8. All right, 8 to 10. I really believe that.

And I know a lot of people smarter than me, right? Like the people who gather, they’re like, no, no, we. Especially when the financial crisis, they kept gold. They kept gold. They knew. They knew then if they let gold go to $5,000 now, soon the financial crisis when, when the whole banking system was imploding, that would have told people, holy, the whole thing’s blowing up. And they couldn’t let that happen. So that’s what’s going on here. And that’s why it’s not expensive, as overbought as it may be.

[00:36:41]:
And yes, it is royally overbought. Okay, I give you that. But I just don’t think it matters longer term. It doesn’t matter longer term. And that’s why the price is going to continue to rise. True price discovery. Now, look, they could always come back in and try to manipulate again. Look, all of These things could happen, okay? But I think the bloom is off that rose.

I think that gold is now again experiencing true price discovery. And that is why we raised our target to 15,000. And by the way, can you imagine how much money we’re going to make in the miner if we’re right about this? If gold goes to 10, 15,000, you imagine where these miners that we own are going to go. Which is why Tyler and I continue to tell these folks, don’t rush. Don’t rush to do a joint venture. Don’t rush to sell. We’ve waited all these years. You finally got the bull market we always knew would happen or believe would.

Don’t rush to do anything. We want to keep building our positions because this is the kind of thing that builds generational, true generational wealth. If you, if you invest with your belief system that you have knowledge of what’s going to happen. Okay? And I think we do. I think we do. I’m going to write that up probably for tomorrow. The comp to JB Oxford, which was one of my favorite stories back from the dot com melt up. I think I’ll write that up tomorrow morning maybe right tonight because it’s going to be a fairly long story.

[00:38:01]:
I’ll keep it short though. All right, what else today put call ratio today again. Todd and I are kind of amazed by this 0.86, you know, day like this. Dow Jones up 1.1% at 515 points. Nasdaq up 310 again all time high 1.4%. Russ 2000 up 1.95%. Everything up more than 1% today. And again the semis all time high.

Nasdaq all time high. Semi study by the way finished up 1.2% again all time high. 10 year again back below, below 4% going a lot lower. Vix today now back down 18.23. Tyler told me that the fear and greed index is still in fear territory. It is, it is textbook. It is textbook. As we’ve told you so many times.

You know, when you, when you get the combination of the SM semis leading S500 as we have, right. The relative chart we keep talking about, you get that combined with investor sentiment turning so bearish so quickly on the first shakeout. Those two right there, the com. The combination of those two signals that we have in the very system, they might be the best two signals that I know of when they happen at the same time. This is back up the truck. You know, it’s easier said than done of course in rearview Mirror time. Right. But again, we ride rent.

[00:39:21]:
We do write about this all the time and we do kind of preach this for the mountaintop. So I think that, I think that is a fair, fair statement that that’s, that’s what those signals represent. All right, let’s take a look under the hood today and get you on your way here. Credit cockroaches just makes me laugh. All right, internals, they were very good, very good. By the way, NYSA four to one advanced decline. NASDAQ three and a half to one positive advanced decline. NYSE up volume 79.4%.

NASDAQ 70.3%. These are very good readings. We had 284 stocks, 150 Kai, just 103 hit a new 52 week low again. Commodity sector watch today also extremely good. Nine sectors finished higher, two finished lower. Almost. No, this really is 11 for 11 because these losses are inconsequential. On the downside, leading the way, upside communication services, Netflix, right.

Amazon up 1.5%. Materials of 1.3. Again we’ve got six sectors today, seven sectors today up more than 1%. Very broad based rally today. Again, the internals, back that up as well. Commodity watch today again. Gold up 160. Last trade 4374 up 3.8%.

[00:40:34]:
Massive move for gold. Silver 2.5%. Great move here as well. 5140 announced. Copper today up 1.6%. $5.04 a pound, back over five bucks a pound. Crude oil today still struggling. But again, Trump wants this.

I can’t overstate that Trump wants this. He wants to kill the inflation story. He knows during the transition period, listen, from the, in the transition period of his tariff policy, there’s going to be some inflation, some of it’s going to be passed through to consumers. It’s just, that’s going to happen. Right? But, so that’s why it’s so important to keep oil down where it is. Because if you can keep, if you can keep crude oil below 60 at the same time as China is exporting disinflation and pure deflation, you are not going to have a high cpi. We’ll find that on Friday. By the way, the consumer price index being reported on Friday, Trump knows this very, very bright guy, very, very bright guy.

And that’s why it’s important to keep oil down where it is. That won’t be the case forever. Next year. They’ll let oil begin to free float, I believe. And you’ll see oil really start to take off which is why we think energy stocks are going to do so well again. The markets discount out six to nine months. So that’s why oil stocks are not getting crushed here. By the way, in case you’re wondering, finally of the day, bitcoin again, good recovery day for bitcoin over the weekend.

[00:41:52]:
It’s a lot of people. A lot of people. That’s a hot hydrating for bitcoin. We even talked about on Friday’s podcast, we talked about MSTR strategy, right. Michael Saylor’s down 46 from the highs. I mean, that is does get your attention, right? But that’s the leverage. There’s a ton of leverage in it, which is why we haven’t bought it and why we haven’t recommended it. But you know, down 46 from the highs here.

Let me see. But anyway, back, back to bitcoin. Bitcoin now up 2% on the last 24 hours at 110,961. All right, folks, that’s it for the day. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you get back here again tomorrow after the close.