In today’s episode, Kip dives right into the dramatic market action following the latest Federal Reserve meeting and Jerome Powell’s address. Kip unpacks Powell's demeanor, Bloomberg’s assessment of a Fed “full of contradictions,” and the immediate impact on the markets, including a sharp rally after Powell stopped speaking and surprising moves in Treasury yields. Kip takes on everything from the Fed’s “institutional bloat” to the growing argument for fewer Fed meetings, and why Trump’s push to change the system of quarterly earnings reports actually makes sense. He breaks down the current themes driving rates lower and what it all means for mortgage rates, the $34 trillion in untapped home equity, and the coming wave of refinancing activity.Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back to the market is closed. Good Wednesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. It was bad day today. How exciting isn’t exciting? It really is always exciting to see especially this guy, Jay Powell, because he’s just a burst of energy. He’s just a blessing to us all. But have you noticed in all seriousness, this guy has aged a lot in the last year.

Look, take a look at him close up. Take a look at him close up. Like look at his mouth. And it looks like his dentures don’t fit. I’m not making fun of him. You know, we all get older, have teeth problems. I’m top of that list. But he just doesn’t look good to me.

[00:00:40]:
And it was like, it was like he was giving a eulogy today. I’ll come back to that in a minute because it was. Here’s what Bloomberg said. Bloomberg said this. I’ve not seen a Fed meeting with this many contradictions ever. And I think that’s pretty accurate coming from Bloomberg. That’s pretty strong. Don’t normally get that from them.

But again today, a lot of talk about all time high in the Dow Jones, you know, we had a big decline in the market of course, as Powell was speaking because that’s what the market always does when Powell speaks. The minute he stopped, here came the rally. NASDAQ did Finish lower by 72 points. That’s, you know, 3/10 of a percent. No big deal. S P 500 slightly lower. 1/10 was 2000 up 2:10 at one point today, a bit up, I saw as much as 1.8%. But Jay Powell can screw up a wet dream.

He has proven this many, many times the 10 year. Also interesting right as the Fed statement came out and they cut rates by a quarter of a point. I’m sure you’ve seen by now indicated there’ll be two more rate cuts this year and then I think there are two or three more next year. The dot plots is all over the map. They don’t know again, they really are very confused. Powell admitted it today. So it’s a very hard time to be a forecaster. He could say that at every Fed meeting he’s ever done.

[00:01:57]:
And by the way, just popped on my head today. Trump is now endorsing going from quarterly earnings reports to every six months. And that’s just fantastic. We absolutely, I think Europe does that. We should absolutely do it. There’s no how much. Look at the, the amount of time and Energy that goes into these quarterly reports. It’s just not necessary at all.

And what else is not necessary are these monthly Fed meetings. This used to not be the case, but the Fed after quantitative easing, you know, here they, here they come. They’re the cool kids at the lunch table now. You know, they’re the, they are, they are, in words of bonfire, the vanities. They are the financial masters of the universe. In their mind. They love it. They absolutely never want to give this power up.

So those monthly Fed meetings are going to be hard for them to cancel. But that’s one of the things that Scott Besson wants to do. Scott Besson was asked, he asked Jay Powell. He didn’t ask. Someone quoted Scott Besson, Treasury Secretary, in the, in the meeting today in the presser to Powell and said, do you have a comment about Secretary Bessant saying that the Fed is guilty of mission creep and bloat? Institutional bloat, which is a perfect way to phrase it because of course they are. And of course, you know, he gave the normal answer of we don’t talk about political things here. It wasn’t a political question. It’s a very honest question because that’s exactly what the Fed is guilty of.

[00:03:24]:
Mission creep and institutional bloat, that is their middle name. So yeah, these monthly meetings, there’s no reason for them do wait President Trump, let’s do wait that those right away and get back to a point where the Fed’s not running our lives. We do not need to hear from these guys every month. I think every quarter is fine, frankly, every six months would be better. If they have something to put out, put a statement out, no problem. If you got a rate cut, make an announcement. Hey, you know what? In a couple days we got an announcement for you. Give the markets a heads up a little bit what’s coming.

But these guys are all so guilty of leaking insider information that it just again, the markets already know. Markets do. It was a quarter of a point today. The CMB Fed Watch tool was at 100% chance of a quarter point rate cut today. There was only one dissent. This was surprising to me. There was only one dissent and it was Steven Muren, the Trump’s new Fed governor. I really expected there to be three.

I thought a minimum of two and at least three, and I thought there could have been four because again, Trump’s exactly right about this. The Fed funds rate should be at least a full percent below where it is now. But again, as the, as the Fed cut rates and the statement came out 10 year yields started plummeting, dropped below 4%. That’s the second time in a week we’ve seen the 10 year crack the 4% level. And matter of fact it made a new cycle low lower than the April 4th low. The low today was 4.0. Excuse me, 3 point intraday low today was 3.992%, 3.992% but it closed at a 4.076. So what happened? What changed? Well I can tell you what I think happened here because the direction is set in stone.

[00:05:14]:
Rates are going lower, mortgage rates are going lower. Have more on that. Just a moment. This is again this has been a long term theme of ours and we’re right, we’re right about that. The market knows that the Fed always follows. They don’t lead. Just remember that the Fed follows, they do not lead. Right now the market is leading lower.

The Fed will follow the market lower. It doesn’t work the other way around. Only in extreme situations does it work the other way around. And right now it’s not one of those times. So I think what’s happening now, matter of fact pretty confident about this call to look at a chart of the 10 year, look at a chart of the dollar as well. And what do you see on each of our momentum oscillators? Right. In our system, very system we’re at either heavily oversold or extreme oversold on both the dollar and 10 year yields. In other words, the rubber band has stretched too far.

So this is when we typically get a counter move. You’ll get a counter trend move. The primary trend remains lower for both the dollar and for the 10 year. Again that’s been our call now for since the election and it’s been the right call and but these counter trend moves take place when we get the rubber band gets stretched too far and that’s where we are now. And I think that’s what happened today. Too many people betting on lower rates and then we basically get a short squeeze or a counter move in the other direction. The traders get on one side and they’re able to flip these things in short order. That’s what happened in the 10 year.

[00:06:36]:
We don’t really, we don’t really trade debt instruments here or currency instruments. But if we did well we kind of do though, don’t we? Look at gold, right? Look at Bitcoin, talking about good currency instruments. The dollar of course is just going to continue lower. It’s what Trump wants. Yields will continue lower. That’s also what Trump wants. And Again, that’s part of the innovation revolution. It’s something.

No, again no one talks about this. No one talks about what I’m about to tell you and it just makes me crazy. No one talks about the fact that innovation like the innovation, the cycle we’re in now, unprecedented, unprecedented is going to cause prices of everything to fall, maybe collapse. We’re talking about pure disinflation, possibly deflation, deflationary cycle. Banks hate it. The Fed certainly doesn’t want it. That’s probably why they’re keeping inflation high. They actually know what’s coming.

Okay and so anyway innovation revolution is going to drive inflation. All prices of everything are going to plump. There’ll be some things of some something new products come out super expensive that you always have that cycle of that in a cycle but the, the price is for most everything and that’s why the Fed should be cutting rates. This nonsense that they’re worried about inflation is just such a joke. It and again there’s nobody in that room that has the balls to ask that question.

[00:07:58]:
Chairman, history tells us that during deeply innovative cycles, right when we have a lot of technological innovation, that disinflation runs rampant. Do you not think that’s a possibility here? Why can’t someone ask that question? You know why? Because they’ve probably been told not, I don’t know, they’ve been told not to. Maybe they’re not smart enough to. It’s a group think of these, all these economists and strategists in the room. Maybe they thought think they’ll be laughed at for saying something that’s so unequivocally true. Who knows. But Powell would not have an answer for that. He would say if I’m doing my best J Pal, that’s a good question.

We don’t really cover that. We don’t really cover innovation. We’re more monetary policy I’m guessing but he’d be stumped. He wouldn’t know what to say. But again that’s what we had the counter trend move I believe today in the 10 year with the rates popping up a little did surprise me really because we’re not an extreme oversold I thought on this, this move we’re going lower but we are going lower. While I’m talking about rates, let’s go ahead and transition. I’m going to come back to the Fed here but this is really important talk to we’ve been talking with you about this. It’s been one of our major themes about what’s happening in the Mortgage market, specifically mortgage rates and interest rates in general.

And what’s happening with this $34 trillion that’s sitting in home equity? Because now we’re getting movement. The three year, we now have a three year low in 30 year mortgages. Okay, down to 6.13%. That was yesterday’s quote. I don’t have one today. Again, we’re not active in that area. I just checked at the end of the day when it updates like at 4 o’, clock. 6.13 was the closing yield yesterday.

[00:09:37]:
That’s down a lot from better than 7%. And it happened pretty quickly. It’s like a stealth move, right? But guess what’s about to happen. Again, I want to say for our new listeners, and by the way, I got to say this, you guys are awesome, man. You guys, the feedback you give us both, your emails, your text messages, your direct messages on Twitter, you know, replying back to me, I mean, it’s just, I really appreciate it. I read everything. Even I get a chance to reply to everything. I read everything and always.

And you ask great questions, by the way. You make great points. So keep it coming. It keeps, keeps us on our toes here. By the way, Tyler, you’re all very, you’re all very lucky here. You’re not going to have me to deal with tomorrow or Friday. Tyler, you is doing the podcast tomorrow and Friday. I’m going to be taking a little trip here and we’ll still have updates both tomorrow and Friday and I’ll be out until Tuesday afternoon, but it shouldn’t affect our updates at all.

But Todd will be doing the podcast at least tomorrow and Friday and I was hoping he would have done today. He was working on another project, work I’m pretty excited about. And that’s what, that’s why I’ve been doing these podcasts more. That’s why he does like once a week or in that, in that ballpark, because of what he’s working on right now for, for, for the vra. But he’ll come back to this pretty soon on a regular cycle. But you’ll have him tomorrow on Friday. And by the way, also, I’ll say this Friday morning, Tyler’s going to be again on Charles Schwab’s financial network, which I think this is his like fourth or fifth appearance there. They’re coming back to him more and more frequently than they should because he’s had some good calls.

[00:11:06]:
Interesting. They told him when the producers asked him, I think it was Monday or Tuesday, they said, listen, we’re Gonna have you on Friday. It’s kind of a free for all. We want you to talk about what you want to talk about. And they always, you know, a lot of times they’ll give you that. Here are the topics, right? Like Charles Payne’s, his staff always says, here are the topics, right? You just gotta, you know, bend your will. Like, I don’t talk about that. I don’t really follow that.

You know, I want to talk about what I want to talk about, but you gotta, you gotta play by the rules. And so they’ve always done that with Tyler, but not Friday. On Tyler, he has to talk about what he wants to talk about. And I can tell you right now, I know two of the things he’s going to talk about on Friday. On his first appearance, he talked about Tesla being a buy. The Stock was like 240 or something. It’s 425 now. So he just, he crushed that.

And then on, like his second appearance, he mentioned Snowline Gold. Well, Snowline Gold is up like 70% from when he was on there. So, you know, it’s hard to go on these shows and talk about your success because it comes across like you’re just a bragging, you know, how do you do that? But at the same time, you know, look, we work hard to get these calls, right? You want people to know, especially when you’re on tv, you kind of want people to know you know, what you’re doing. And what better way to know than by letting them know you got a call, right? Or for someone to recognize that you did, you know? And also, look, we’re financial. We’re a finpo financial publisher. You know, we do like growing our subscription base. It allows us to do a lot of fun things, add a lot more people, which we’re doing now. And so we can provide better services.

[00:12:32]:
By the way, beginning next month, we’re going to have, for our VRA members, we’re going to have a monthly VRA member private webinar, a zoom where you can ask anything you want to. Tyler and I will be there in person. And so we’re also going to do one once a month for non members. And that’ll be a little more limited. It’s really just a chance for us to tell people what we think in the markets, maybe answer a few questions. But those are just. We got a lot of things we’re working on. Those are a couple things we’re excited about.

And you’ll see a lot of. As you see with our website, you know, I’M pretty proud of our website. Tyler has done an amazing job in building that and we’ve got a pretty tight knit team here that it’s hard to find the right people in this space. I got to tell you because you know some of these clowns that come from Agora and Stansberry, I mean you just, they know the ins and outs of the game. But, but I’m being candid with you. You can’t trust them. Just can’t trust them because they, they’re not trustworthy. And that’s the case with so many of these financial publishers that are now AI bots.

They are, they are, they are written by AI. There is no they. The, the letter I saw the other day said here’s the new, new letter from Agora by the guy named Mike Johnson. He’s got this 30 year track record. I’m like, that’s an AI, that’s not a guy. There is no Mike Johnson at Agora. And it didn’t take much rocket science to figure that out on my part. I asked Grok and Grok confirmed it for me.

[00:13:54]:
No, no, he’s just a stand in. It’s an AI program. So you know, it doesn’t do any of the, it’s all, it’s a disservice to the entire profession frankly. And maybe profession is, is too much of a word to use for, for what we do here. But we’re proud of what we do and we do try to do it right. So anyway, Tyler will be able to swab on Friday. I’m looking forward to seeing that. And Friday morning’s update.

We’ll, we’ll, we’ll get that out to you. So you can watch the link. I think he’s Normally on like 11am on Charles Swab Financial Network. But back to mortgages, okay. This is so important. And again no one’s talking about it. No one’s Talking about the $34 trillion sitting in home equity. Okay.

Because as these mortgage rates continue to fall and I took a lot of time last night to write that up for a letter this morning, if you don’t mind. I’m going to write, I’m going to read this as I wrote some of this because I think I worded it just the way I want to say it. Okay? So picture this. Rates have plunged from a painful 7% plus highs down to sub 5%. That’s our call for next year right now again, 6.13 unlocking a massive 34 trillion dollar treasure chest of home equity. That’s been sitting idle, locked in home. American household households. This will soon be our home equity reality.

[00:15:05]:
Homeowners will refinance like crazy. This is coming. It’s already starting. I mean, I meant to share a chart this morning. Refinance, refis over the last week have just gone parabolic. People, people were waiting for this. And so that’s already starting. But it’s really going to get crazy.

If you’re in that business. I think you’re going to be very happy about what you say in the next next two, three years as rates just plummet lower. But lower rates are going to slash monthly payments, but for borrowers by hundreds, if not thousands of dollars every month. It’s going to free up a lot of cash flow for people to just take vacations, buy new everything they want to buy, right? Put in stock market, et cetera. But, but that’s immediate consumer stimulus. It boosts retail, it boosts services, and it boosts jobs. So while I’m talking about jobs, this guy Powell again giving a eulogy today for the American worker. He said, clearly, clearly the risk have risen.

Clearly things are slowing. How do you exactly know that, Chair Powell? Because we have a BLS that has been giving you horrible data for as many years as I can remember. Why do you trust them now? Again, anybody in the room that’s got stones ask that question because you know he’s. Forecasting is a tough job, especially when you can’t trust the data, sir. The data, the input is. The output can’t be good if the input is shitty. And that’s exactly what’s happening here. My God, this is not rocket science.

[00:16:33]:
You know, just tell us the truth. We can handle it. Right? Trust me. I want to tell you, the jobs market is not slowing. By the way, Chair Powell, during your eulogy for the American economy and the American worker, by the way, he said today, this is a direct quote. I put it out on Twitter, so make sure I get it just right. Quote. Minorities are having a hard time finding jobs.

What is this guy talking about? He’s not a fan of the changes in Trump’s immigration policy. That also comes through, does it not? So let’s just follow this through logically. If we’re exporting illegals that have these jobs for minorities, right? And that’s what he’s talking about, then that means those jobs are available. You can’t have one and not. You can’t have it both ways. Chair Powell, right? Worsted chair of our times. And I get pushed back on that. People go, you Know what? How, how can you say that when you got Bernanke? How can you say it when you got Yellen? Look, I’m not giving them a pass, okay? They were horrible too.

Okay, let’s go down the road a little bit because it’s actually a fun conversation for, for Powell, right? You can’t go from, from the, from the plandemic, right? You can’t go from one month saying there is no inflation. This is exactly what happened to two months later saying we have a little inflation to the very next month. Oh, we have it, but it’s transitory to two months after that. This all happened inside of a year, I think, frankly. All happened inside eight months. 41 year highs in inflation. Remember when it took off, it took off. That qualifies in my mind along with all the money they printed as the worst Fed chair of our time.

[00:18:13]:
Only because it’s, it was such an easy thing to see coming. Right? But, but, but, but, but, but Bernanke, okay, You would say Bernanke because of quantitative easing. That’s what most people would tell you. Greenspan kind of gets a pass. He shouldn’t. The Federal Reserve and Alan GreenSpan hike rate 17 straight times from 2004 to 2006. They caused the housing crash. Greenspan is also in that list.

They’re all bad. Okay, they’re all bad. But no one talks about this anymore. Everyone talks about the housing crash of 2007, 2008, because that’s when it started, 2007. I know I was on stages all over the world telling people, beginning in early 2006, watch what’s coming. Get, reduce your, your leverage to real estate. You know, don’t, don’t keep borrowing money because this looks like it could be bad. I must have said that.

I don’t know. On 50 stages beginning in 2006, all over the place. And so we were ready for it for both that and for the market. What came. But at the same time, and I was before Twitter, I joined Twitter in 2009. This is BT before Twitter. I was just ranting and raving about the Federal Reserve hiking rates. Like, okay, you see the economies, you see the housing market, really, you see the mortgage companies going out of business left and right.

[00:19:34]:
Stop hiking rates. You’re going to exacerbate something that’s already bad into something that’s horrible. And of course they did, but revisions. History tells you, no, it wasn’t. The Fed didn’t even get mentioned. Now it’s the borrower. Look in the mirror, folks. You’re responsible for the housing crash because you borrowed too much money.

You borrowed too much money to buy homes and anybody could fog a mirror, could get a loan. Remember that? That was the, that was the thing really, just to say fuck you to the consumer. It was your fault. No, it wasn’t our fault. There was no reason for that crash to happen. 17 straight rate hikes for. First of all, again, easy, easy money policy to begin with. Started it right under Greenspan.

Then under Greenspan, 17 straight. And Bernanke, 17 straight rate hikes. So look, there’s plenty of blame to go around to all these guys. But I’m going to say one thing about Bernanke and this is going to come across probably as some people as a Keynesian policy, okay. Which I honestly, I find myself somewhere in the middle because this is our system. We can’t, we can’t go back and change history. We have a Federal Reserve, we have central banks. If we just shut that down, we’re going to have the crash that is going to kill a lot of people.

[00:20:51]:
Literally. Right, Literally. So we can’t just tear apart everything that we built. So because the crash happened, the housing crash and finished crash 2008, the Fed had to take aggressive actions. Yes, they may have caused it, but now they had to take action. So I understand quantitative easing, by the way, it didn’t start here, started in Japan a full decade earlier. And that’s typically the way things happen if you follow Japan, which is why, by the way, look at what they’re doing now. They’re getting back to a little less yield curve control and they’re allowing that rates to gravitate higher, that they won’t go much higher.

They just can’t because Japan owes too much money. But if you follow what happens in Japan, it we’re all, we’re turning Japanese, right. And that’s a great song. It’s actually true. But anyway, so I understand quantitative easing, I do. Did it get out of control? Absolutely. But this is our system and we got to play within the confines of it. So you can’t just tilt it windmills on this.

People that do that and just and moan and moan and moan and it’s just the whole thing is rigged. You know what? Well, okay, maybe, maybe you’re right. I’ll give you that. Now what are you going to do? Isn’t it our job to play and you know, don’t hate the player, hate the game? Is it not? Don’t hate the game. Yeah. Don’t play the player at the game. Isn’t our job to make money in whatever system we’re in and whatever environment that we’re in? Of course it is. Right.

[00:22:13]:
Unless you just want to sit there and be an angry old man, which I got to tell you, the older I get, I do see that possibility happening. I do. And I have to remind myself, okay, Kip, unconditional love. Practice all the things of manifest your destiny, which I’ve, I try to be a, you know, I try, I try to do the best I can. Manifest your destiny is just an exceptionally good book and unconditional love. Getting rid of ego, you know, because ego is where all fear and anxiety and anger come from. Okay? And so if you can get rid of those things and be of service to others, have unconditional love, life starts working the way you want it to. Right? But so I’m trying not to be an angry old man.

But, yeah, watching Jay Powell does make it a little hard. And this whole conversation about, about central banks. But again, you know, our job is to beat the markets, right? Our job is to be on the right side of the market, beat the market, find the right sectors, find the right stocks, and then rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat. That’s what our job is. And so that’s what we, that’s what we do here, right? So back to the final point on mortgages. Bounce around a little bit here. We are going to see a tsunami of liquidity because the key to this whole thing is the multiplier effect when these cash out refis and home equity loan HELOC start coming. And again, they’re starting.

But watch, watch what happens when we’re down below 5%. I think that’s the magic level. We get below 5%. By that point, Trump’s going to have his people on the Fed, right? Even more of them than now. And we’re going to have evidence that, guess what? The, the tariffs never caused much inflation whatsoever. It was always truly transitory. That’s when that word is appropriate, by the way. And yeah, guess what? GDP growth’s over 5% because that’s where we’re headed.

[00:23:57]:
We’re, we’re, we’ll again for our newer people. Okay, I’m, I’m a, I’m a parrot on this, but we’ve been saying this now for some time. 5% GDP, I do think by year again, Lana, Fed is at 3.4% already, right? It’s only September. And again, Jay Powell. Would somebody please ask that question? CHAIR Powell, Atlanta Fed one of yours, you know, one of your guys, Bostic, they’re at 3.4% GDP. Why are you talking about the economy slowing your job? What? What, what? What? What? What? Oh, you’re relying on bls, right? Yeah. You’re replying, relying on something that hasn’t worked and doesn’t work before. I forget this point because it just popped in my head.

I thought Mike McKee of Bloomberg asked the question of the day. It was a two parter. But the first part didn’t matter. It was a setup for the second part. And McKee said, Chair Powell, you guys continue to say, as you have since you’ve been fetched here, that your goal is within two years to get to 2% inflation, your target rate. Well, you’ve been saying that now every two years since you got the job. At what point does that become kind of a crazy thing to consider even you know. In other words, aren’t you embarrassed by this? But you’re always wrong.

And Powell just had, I really had no ears. Well, that’s when he said you’re forecasting is hard. Yeah. My goodness. Right. Wow. Maybe he should go talk to some of these six or seven hundred economists they have on the Fed’s payroll to get a better answer. It’s the group think of these groups that I have such a problem with.

[00:25:33]:
It’s why they, that’s why they’re. If you wonder why we’re always on the other side of the majority of strategist economists and the Fed. Because it’s the group thing. It is just the group. Think I spent a lot of time on that, probably too much, but that’s a real bugaboo for me. But finally, when these helocs and cash out refi’s really kick in folks, it’s not going to be hundreds of billions of dollars coming in the economy again. It’s 34 trillion, all time high sitting in a home equity. 40% of homeowners have no mortgage.

Average home equity now is better than 70%. Right. These are all time highs, obviously. Right. So when this money starts coming out of it, when people get more confident, when mortgage rates below 5%, what’s going to happen? It’s going to be the multiplier effect. It’s going to ripple throughout the economy. Manufacturing, tech, broader economy, construction is going to boom, contractors are going to get hired, suppliers are going to thrive, job growth is going to soar. And again, I just get so tired frankly again of this, this constant noise that the innovation revolution, the AI boom as they call it.

Is going to, is going to cause a destruction of millions of jobs, and it’s just going to be horrible. It’s complete nonsense. It’s always been nonsense. There’s never been a time in history of where innovation, a dramatic innovation and dramatic technological advancement has caused fewer jobs to be created. It’s always resulted in more jobs being created. Just. History tells you. History is 100% right on this.

[00:27:02]:
100%. Had a friend of mine always said 100% that way. So it’s in, it’s in his honor. History is 100% right on this. So let’s just stop the nonsense, right? Let’s use history as a guide and maybe, maybe ask Rock every now and then a question so you can learn the truth about what history actually tells us. But again, this is rocket fuel for the gdp and it’s so much more than just housing. Again, this economy is going to boom. And I put this out on Twitter today.

When I talk to people, even, even our own people, I’m telling you, this happens a lot. Okay? This trip I’m going on, I’m going to see a lot of people that I know, a lot of friends. And, you know, they, they, we go way back, and I’m always going to see some, some of our clients on this trip. And I already know what it’s going to go like. Hey, Kip, what do you think about the economy? Well, I’ve never been more bullish, actually. And I think we’re going to 5% GDP by the end of the year and then probably 7 or 8% GDP growth in the next two or three years. This is a generational boom. We’re all going to be, this is the best time to be alive.

There’s never been a better time to be an American. When I say things like that, because that’s what I see is what we see. You know, we put on the big bride three years ago. When, when I say things like that, the, the reaction in almost every case is mouths are open. People are dumbfounded. They think I have three heads. They’re like, huh? What? Don’t we, don’t you know what’s going on in this country? Don’t you watch the news? Don’t you pay attention to the news and the media? Don’t you see what they’re telling us? And so, again, I think the larger point to that comment, and it is funny, I actually kind of laugh now when it happened, this happened with a friend of mine that I’m going to be seeing on this trip about a year or year and a half ago, and I said all this and he called me to my face in front of me, called me crazy because I can’t believe they have you on tv. And so this guy’s name is David.

[00:28:59]:
And I could just see his face. We were playing, we were playing a cornhole and having this conversation and he just stopped and looked at me like, if Joe Biden is president, what are you talking about? You know, and, but, but the thing is that’s always the reaction. So here’s the larger point because this is about investor psychology. It’s a very important point. Now that I’ve done this long enough, I’ve done this a while, right? When I stopped getting that reaction, when Todd and I stopped getting that reaction and people start nodding their heads in agreement. Oh yeah, oh yeah, that’s going to be a tell. That’s going to be a sign. Let’s take a look at the Vera system kit.

Let’s go back and look at all our stuff. Because people don’t. Now people start to agree with us, right, that, that, that won’t be a reason to sell, but what will be a reason to start taking some profits is when these talking heads start saying it. Now, there are a few already that have joined us in this, in this, in this, in this theme, okay? Ed Yardini, Tom Lee. Now, these are not guys. These guys weren’t saying this three years ago, but they have a big mouthpiece now. They have a larger audience than we do and they are saying it now. But there’ll be a lot more of them.

Like you’ll see, it’ll start being the majority and then these sentiment indicators will start staying bullish for a long time. Even when we, the markets start to fall, it will barely be impacted. We have a lot of those things to look at. But the unofficial one, right, the tell for me is when people start telling me how strong the economy, me, how, how strong the economy, how strong the market is, how bullish they are. That’s a tell. Remember that at your, at your little parties and soirees and you’re talking to friends, right, Talking to family members. When they start saying it, just notice the change. It won’t be a reason to sell.

[00:30:46]:
That’ll be melt Upville. That’ll be the time when everybody is really recognizing this bull market is on. We’re not there yet. And that’ll be a time to start just noticing it and say, okay, you know what, I got a couple more years before it’s time to see because we’re Going to have bear markets. Understand, you know, during the dot com bull market we had five bear markets. People don’t know remember this to talk about. I do. We had five bear markets including one a 32% crash in NASDAQ that just shook everybody out.

That was before the final 18 month melt up when NASDAQ went up like 200 some percent in the final 18 months. That’s really, people talk about the dot com melt up. That really was it, that final 18 months because it was just breathtaking because everybody been shaken out, they were out because the bear market took them out. And it was really painful. Got to tell you it shook my confidence too. I think everybody said well it’s over. It was fun, it was a fun three and a half years but now it’s over and it wasn’t just getting started. So we’ll have, we’re going to have bear markets, we’re going to have shakeouts but I think we’re not going to have anything like we’ve had.

We’re not going to have another, you know, a true bear market where you have something where we fall 25, 30%. I don’t see that happening in the SPF. I think, I think that just again now too much liquidity. I think these shakeouts going to be much more, you know, much more minor. I think maybe, Maybe we’ll get 8% or something. Right. But I don’t even know we’re going to get any 10% for a few years. This is going to, this is that melt up.

[00:32:14]:
It’s here. And so that tsunami of money and liquidity is out there, especially in mortgages, is giving a flood again. And that’s, that’s just starting. Right. And again nobody is talking about this. It both drives me crazy and it gets my juices going because I know what’s part of the cycle that we’re in by the way, when the Fed cuts rates, when markets are within 100 with 1% of all time high the next 12 months, the market’s never been lower ever. It’s had an average return of 15. So yeah, seasonality is not good here.

It’s not. The next 10 days are not good. Matter of fact they’re the worst 10 days of the year. These starting today. But I just don’t think it’s going to matter again. Too much money out there. All right, what else do I have on pal? I did have a, again. I thought he’s aged a lot.

I, I thought his comment minorities are having a hard time finding a hard Time finding jobs, which is completely nonsensical. Nobody asked me about Atlanta Fed. I just found myself disagreeing with pretty much everything he said, which is not uncommon for me with Jay Powell. And it’s why I have Colin Forrest Fed Chair of our Times, because I just sit there, shake my head when he says things because it doesn’t match at all what I’m seeing and what I’m hearing. And the tariffs, as he said, are not tariffs being mainly paid by exporters and the consumer. And ultimately the consumer is what he said. He has no evidence of this at all. But that’s their narrative, right? That’s their narrative, you know, and they’re just shameless and they keep repeating things that aren’t true.

[00:33:46]:
But again, you know what, that’s. They’re the masters of our financial universe, so good for them, right? They’re the cool kids at lunch table for time being. I think that’s going to change. I think, I think that’s when the truth comes out about people like Lisa Cook, right, this mortgage fraud queen that’s bought three primary residences and listed them all as a primary residence instead of a. So she get tax cut calling them non primary. I think the truth is going to come out a lot about a lot of these folks. I think the Fed’s going to be taking down a lot, a bunch of notches and that’s all going to be very good. I think the next edge here is going to be someone that we’re going to have a lot more confidence in and again that the economies and the markets are going to recognize that.

Okay, we just want to hear the truth, man. You know, just stop the narrative stuff, stop the DEI tell, hire good people, hired the best person for the job and stop lying to us. Is that too much to ask? I. I think for these people it probably is. Oh, last comment, and I had to mention this, I’m glad to save for last. Pal said at one point he kind of, it was response to a question, so it’s a little bit off topic and he just kind of ad libbing here. You could tell when he had libs. That’s when he gets in trouble.

He said, you know, when Covid happened and we dropped rates to 0%, we had the home builders come to us and say thank you, thank you for saving us. That I’m a little paraphrasing, but that’s what he said. That’s what he meant. The home builders said, thank you, thank you, you saved us. He said something very close to that. Let’s See, rates are already near zero. The home builders didn’t thank you. If anything they thanked Trump for flooding the economy with all that stupid money we got for not working right.

[00:35:35]:
Think the plandemic for it. Jay Powell gets no credit for that at all. This guy is something else, man. He deserves to age quite a bit in a short period of time just for being a bald faced liar. Just for that reason. Okay, let’s talk about under the hood today. By the way, Tesla, another update. I think this is seven straight updates for Tesla.

If I remember that right, it had dropped down to 409 today. Intraday on the Fed, you know crackdown here as people lost confidence in the Fed and like these guys run us just sell everything. And now Tesla back to 425 at the close up only up 8, 10 of a percent. But I think that’s seven or eight days that Tesla’s been up. And we all know why that’s happening because the market is a discounting mechanism and knows what’s coming next. There is no better stock to own for the innovation revolution than Tesla. That’s our large besides gold, just in case you’re wondering. For our family office money besides gold, which is our largest position, Tesla is number two.

And maybe one of these days I’ll just like the top five or something. I kind of, I talk about them sometimes, but there you go, there’s a 1 and 2. Feel good about that. And by the way, if you’re wondering was gold number one before this massive move higher? Yeah, it was still number one. So gold’s got this number one spot by, by a pretty, pretty, pretty wide margin. We’ve been in love with gold for a very long time. We were third three generations of gold bugs. My dad, me and both Tyler and Sam are gold bugs here.

[00:37:05]:
And I highly recommend it. It’s a. Yes, it can be a frustrating life but at the end of the day it’s highly, highly rewarding and you just feel better having gold. You just do. Not that I don’t like bitcoin, because I do. You know, I love, you know, I love bitcoin too, but there’s just nothing like gold. It’s the only true currency for 5,000 years, more than 5,000 years. And everybody should own it and buy it from a local dealer.

I get this question a lot. Got it again last night. Who do we buy gold from? Kip, because you all, you can only own physical, you can buy phys. By the way, that’s the Sprott physical Trust. No problem with that. At all. But still it’s a, it’s still an equity, right? There’s strange things happen to equities in market sell offs, they just do. And so phys is going to see the same thing.

If we have a big crack, it’s just going to happen because more sellers and buyers and then you get these, it would make it a buying opportunity but still you get the cracks and then people panic and sell, make a mistake, right? But physical gold should be owned. That’s your first, prior, first, first goal. And you want to buy it from a local dealer, someone in your area. You know, if you live somewhere within 100 mile, I think that’s a, that’s fair, you know, be there in an hour and a half or something within, within an hour and a half of a good precious metals dealer. So you have to put some legwork in and find someone that you trust. Got a good background, do your research and homework and all that. But these are the people to know if something, if the shit ever really hits a fan. These guys know everybody in your community.

[00:38:31]:
They’re trusted, they’re salt of the earth people. I mean by and large I’m kind of grouping this but they tend to be that and they’re no nonsense people. So don’t try to play any games with them, don’t ask me any nonsense questions, they just are short with you. But when you come to them with a good question, one that matters, like you know what, what’s your, what’s your rate commission going to be on the sell of this? Hey, you know what, you’ve been with us for a long time. Going to give this to you for 10 bucks. I mean I’ve had that happen multiple times with my guy. Just because they appreciate the business and we give them a lot of referrals over the years. And that’s the thing, you know, you build, you’re in a community, you’re helping each other.

It’s old school. I’m an old school guy for stuff like that. Find somebody in your community and that deals in precious metals and you might take a little look. It took me three different guys to go through to find the right one. But, but you know, that’s, that’s the recommendation if you want someone here in Houston, my guy, I’m glad to give him to you just to shoot me a, just shoot me an email, right? Most of you have my email address if not support@vrainsider.com support vrainsider.com and I’ll be glad to give it to you. If you’d like that. Okay, let’s look under the hood today. Okay.

Internals today were slightly low of his decline for nasdaq. Slightly higher for nyse. Almost a mirror image of. Yes, same things yesterday. By the way, NASDAQ today up volume today was 59% of volume for that NYC today was 57%. And we had, and this is again this is becoming a Trend. We had 490 stocks here to 52 week high. Just 83 hitting a 52 week low.

[00:40:09]:
That, that, that is starting to be very consistent in that 45600 range. Again this kind of the anatomy of a bull market. This, that continues to build. Once we get to + 14, 1500 a day that’s typically a sign of some short term froth, you know. But again we’re, we’re a long way from that in our sector. Watch today again pretty quiet here. Six six higher, five lower. Not much any direction.

Financials up nine tenths of percent on low rates. To the downside technology down seven ten of a percent. Again tech’s been red hot. This is really just an overbought market that’s just consolidating, giving a little back. Read nothing into this. Okay. Again, seasonality not great. Obviously we pay attention to that but as you, as you likely know that’s not something we’re greatly concerned.

It’ll be buying opportunity. It’ll be another buy the dip should we get it. We’re not selling. We paused our buying and everything is extremely bought and we’re hoping for a pullback. Hoping since we’re talking about mortgages earlier. Okay, what are we looking to buy? This is going to make a lot of you very happy with the vra. We are very close to once again buying nail N A I L the three time leverage housing home builder etf. I’m going to share these charts in the morning.

[00:41:23]:
There’s there, there are bullish ascending channels in XHB and itb. The, the home builder and the construction ETS for, for homes. Okay. And they have followed this thing you’ll see in the morning. They’re just this beautiful, it’s almost both, almost perfect ascending channels. And guess what? We’ve worked off our overbought conditions right now approaching oversold on stochastic our shortest term momentum oscillator and getting back very close to that lower end of that ascending channel. And we don’t really use nail for the, the leverage etf. We don’t do that for technical analysis very rarely do we because you want to use the underlying ETF for technical analysis anyway.

But now, you know, today hit an intraday high of 90, almost 92 today closed at 81. Big move lower again as rates got whipsawed as the market got whipsawed. So nails back down to 81, just below 81 and then we just bought it. We had a six week trade where we made 59 in this stock in this ETF six weeks 59 gain using the VRA system for our leverage ETF program. And we’re getting very close to buying it again. I know a lot of you are looking forward to that because we, we have a lot of Fun Trading Leverage ETFs. They are great, they’re fantastic trading vehicles. But we’ve been overbought.

It’s been hard to buy much anything. And so again we want to see this shakeout happen, giving us an opportunity to put on some more positions. Although we’re, we’re fully, we’re pretty much fully invested right now. But we do want to buy nailback, that’s for sure. Commodity today again goals all over the map today finishing down 30, just over $30 an ounce. Again extreme overbought on steroids. Look at the chart, you’ll see what I’m saying. This is no surprise.

[00:43:07]:
Goals just barely off all time high. 36.94 right now, down to the 8/10 of a percent. Please just consolidate, move sideways. That’s all that’s going to happen here. Again we should get counter trend moves again higher in rates in the dollar. That’s not good for gold. But again we just, we’re pausing our buying. We’re looking, we’d love to see a little more downside to, to add to our 10 baggers in this space Vista Gold Snowline Gold Silver today down 2% at 41.99.

Again Extreme Robot Copper today down 1.6%.461 a pound. Pay not, pay no attention to that whatsoever. China. Look at these global markets. China Tech, China Tech stocks going parabolic, right? Why? Because they’re leading indicators where they’re leading a strong Chinese economy. Why? Because the US economy is strong and we lead the world. Same song, second verse always right. Rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat.

Global economy is in great shape which is why oil prices are gonna start going higher. Oil stocks today, by the way, had a good day. They finished off the lows a little bit, but they’re looking very good to me. They’ve been leading higher now for all year and we’re, we’re looking for an opportunity to add to those positions. Oil today, crude oil, down 54 cents a barrel at 64 even and found on the day. Bitcoin 115,789. That’s down, what, eight tenths of a percent in the last 24 hours? All right, folks, that’s it for the day. Hey, I would love you guys.

[00:44:31]:
Thank you so much for. For listening, for your feedback. I’ll be gone again tomorrow and Friday. Tyler’s got. Got this covered. Tomorrow and Thursday. Tomorrow and Friday. So that’ll be good news for all of you.

I can promise that. All right, have a great day. We’ll see. Back here again tomorrow after the close.