In today’s episode, Kip breaks down a rollercoaster week in the markets, diving into the big intraday reversals following Nvidia’s earnings, the aftermath of the government shutdown, and how short term liquidity concerns have driven recent volatility. He explains why he believes the fear is overblown, with gold holding strong as an indicator of underlying market stability, and shares why he expects this turbulence to be a forgotten blip just two weeks from now. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Friday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Certainly much better than yesterday. And I hope your week was a great one as well. And you’ve got two big plans for the weekend. I think we all deserve to take a little bit of a break this weekend and maybe do some things to restore our spirit because it’s certainly been knocked, the wind’s been knocked out of us over the last couple of weeks.

It culminated really in yesterday’s action. We with that big intraday reversal after the amazing Nvidia earnings. I’m going to make a statement, though, that I’m pretty confident is going to hold up in about two weeks. And I mean, we’re talking about no time at all. Within two weeks, very few people will be able to tell you why this happened. Think about this. We had the shutdown and what did the market do? Parabolic, straight up. That was a wall of worry.

[00:00:58]:
Move higher. Classic government reopens. What does the market do? It goes the other direction again. That’s a buy the rumor, sell the news event. And you know, those of us that followed closely know what happened. It was really a liquidity issue. The trillion dollars in the treasury general account that wasn’t into the financial system caused liquidity issues. We saw that, of course, in, in bitcoin and now bitcoin.

Look, I’m knocking on wood here. Bitcoin led the way lower. There is no question about that. From the October 4th highs of 126,000, Bitcoin fell overnight. I think the low was what, 70, 79,000, I believe. And now, you know, back to 85,100 as you speak. So it clearly was the first to bottom and move higher. It led the way lower.

And that probably tell us, tells us, at least in the eyes of the markets right here, right now, the liquidity issues behind us. And I think they are, I think they are. And I think we have some, some, some good data to back that up. Also today, this morning, you may have seen the New York Fed President, John Williams came out, this is before the open and said that he was very open to an interest rate cut. That was a change of policy for him. New York Fed guy, it’s a big name, carries a lot of weight. I would say next to Jay Powell, that what he said, John Williams says is he’s probably second in line as far as power because of course, the New York Fed is the power base of the Federal Reserve. So that was big.

[00:02:35]:
It got people much more optimistic. And of course yields rally, yields fell. And, and the 10 year today is now down to a yield of 4.06%. A pretty, pretty solid move higher today in, in bond prices. And something else. Look, it’s when things like this happen that you know, we think there’s a, there’s a monster around every corner, that there’s something under the bed, every bed we’re going to sleep in, we’re going to look underneath that bed before we go to sleep on it. Because that was the fear, that was the level of fear that this market had. But guess what never showed that fear? Gold.

I want to tell you because I’ve seen this happen. We all have, right? Any number of times when there is, there is a serious systemic issue in the markets. What makes me afraid is when gold goes down with the market and goes down big. Now we had that 10, six day shakeout but folks that was, that was last month when all of this recent stuff happened, right? Big the big reversal in Nvidia news and the, the weakness of the post, post shutdown gold has done nothing but go up. Gold is not shown an ounce of weakness and again that’s a key for me. If gold is staying flat or going higher as it’s been doing from its lows of two weeks ago. When gold is doing that, if the rest of the market is shaky and there are concerns of again serious liquidity issues that you know, you may have seen this I know I’ve gotten. By the way, thank you again, thank you for your emails.

Thank you for listening. I hear from some of you that I’ve never heard from but it’s clear from what you write that you listen a lot, listen all the time. Thank you. Had dinner this week, Ryan. I won’t say your last name because I didn’t get approval for you to say this but had dinner with a long term listener and subscriber to the vra. Ryan, who lives in, I’ll just say he’s moved from California to a much more friendly state, a more red state in Nashville. I think I can probably say that in Tennessee. And I mean super successful guy.

[00:04:49]:
I really enjoyed meeting you, Ryan. I know you listen every day. Manages a lot of money. He’s a hitter, folks. Okay? This guy is a hitter. He’s done it for a long time, 25 years. That’s a long time to be in that business, right? And just a great guy, very, very bright and is so tuned in to so many topics and that’s really what I’ve learned from all of you. You know, I get emails from you and I’m like, okay, they know this topic better than I do.

And so this week we heard from a lot of people, they kind of told me, okay, we’re getting back to the, there’s a monster under the bed. A lot of fears. A lot of people this week talking about what’s happening in Japan. Yes, rates are moving higher. Okay, you, you can’t not pay attention to this. This is, and I think in every book I’ve written I’ve said, which is four. I think I’ve mentioned that my, my biggest black swan risk is, is Japan. I think it’s the single biggest risk on the planet.

Debt to GDP of 240%. When the, when the, when I, when our central bank led global financial system does blow up if and when it does, maybe it never will. We certainly don’t think that’s going to happen for some time because this is our system, it will only blow up if that’s what they want it to happen. That’s another fear by the way, isn’t it? That’s another fear. Let me finish my Japan comment and I’ll come back to that. But, but when it does blow up, we’ll see it first in Japan and we’ll know it because overnight the Japanese market will get hit and we’ll, we’ll wake up to futures being down sharply and something bad will have happened. But I don’t think we’re there yet. I just don’t think we’re there yet.

[00:06:36]:
We’re not at that. This, this cycle we’re in now is still a very much a liquidity led cycle. Remember these are short term liquidity issues we’ve had here. And again that’s why I think in two weeks no one’s going to remember what happened here. But the bigger picture, right, a global M2 money supply is $167 trillion, right? That’s cash and cash equivalents folks. United States, 22 trillion again 7 1/2 trillion in money markets. This is not how tops form, tops form. And again my mentor, Ted Parsons, my first mentor, this was what his generation, ted was probably 65, 70 when I first started working with him and his generation at the time and you know, now I’m approaching that age, I’m 63 and my God, I thought Ted was old.

Shit. You know things, things do change, don’t they? But his generation, they watched money, money, money supply was the big thing, the weekly and they don’t release what he used to watch now, but the weekly release of M2 money supply was what, what he watched. And it’s still very important. And that’s why we’re not seeing signs of anything that would even begin to indicate that there are liquidity issues in the system. And folks, we’ve seen it this over the last two weeks, that supply and demand liquidity is what drives everything. And that’s why it’s so important to follow this. And it’s why another reason we just weren’t concerned about this, because those cracks aren’t appearing, they’re just not appearing, but they will at some point. The biggest concern if I, besides, besides Japan is that they implode the system intentionally.

And that’s, that’s a real concern. You know, there are a lot of folks, right, there are a lot of folks, I know you’ve read it as well, that, that think that there’s civil war going on between Trump administration and the Federal Reserve and the central banking system. I think it’s hard not to recognize that as a real risk. Tyler made a great point today and it’s a point we’ve made often here. And I think it’s important to, you know, see the forest of the trees. I think this is a good example of that. The primary reason that our financial elites, and that’s central banks, all these, you know, cartel members who work for the banks, one of the primary reasons, if not the primary reason, they won’t allow that to happen, at least not yet, is that these wealthy, connected financial system folks are also the largest holders of equities, the largest holders of debt, largest holders of housing and real estate. So it’s self interest, protecting their own self interest.

That’s why I believe that when we do see a top like that of significance, and again, we are extraordinarily bullish at least through 2030. This is the roaring 2000s history is repeating here from the 1920s. And I think we have enough evidence of that to say that pretty confidently. And that’s the point that we’ve been making since we wrote our book the Big Broad. Actually, even before that we started saying it. One of the first to do so. And that means we’ve got another almost at least a full four years, right? And we think it goes beyond that. And that’s because of the innovation revolution and the just unbelievable technological change that’s taking place and will continue to take place.

[00:10:14]:
So again, we think this is going to pass. As we said this morning, we’re staying the Course. And there’s some phenomenal buys here. A few, a few points that I’ll make here about what we, what we saw wrote this up this morning that just indicate this is, this is the bottom are very close to it. First of all, from today until December 7th, this is the most bullish seasonal stretch of the year. We’re in it now, starting today, in it now through December 7th. And it’s not like we have an important top on December 7th. We just typically have a bit of a lull and then we have the final two weeks of the year.

That’s again, almost also again parabolic. I’ll share that chart with you in our letter on Monday to show you exactly what I’m talking about. But it’s a near parabolic move higher from now to December 7th. And how interesting and that goes back a long time. How interesting that this happening now just as the fear and greed index last night hit 4. Now there are a lot of people that say the fear and greed index is a junk index. It’s really not what people think it is. But it is very, very handy and extraordinarily useful.

So we absolutely use it. But we like to use it most at times like this where you see this. The 4 is not the all time low. If you can believe it, the all time low level is two. And it happened on Christmas Eve. December from hell. Q4 from hell. December from hell.

[00:11:41]:
Also brought to us by one J Pal. We talk about this a lot. And we also had a reading of four. Okay. Then we had. That was two. And then the last time we had a reading of four was at the October 13, 2022 bear market lows and which is one of the reasons we called the bottom on that day because of this reading. So it’s very handy at extremes.

That’s when it’s most handy is at these extremes. And it’s a high probability indicator, folks, when you see this, the, the, the, the there’s. The fear is, is, is everywhere. People are deathly afraid and they’re selling the public selling at this point. We saw a lot of that yesterday. Put call put buying yesterday was second level, second highest level of all time. I believe I saw that multiple places. I didn’t do the work myself, but I know I saw it multiple places.

Also saw some really other good indicators that every time we’ve seen this reversal. We saw Yesterday with the SP 500 gaps up more than 1% at the Open only to close negative right Every single time that’s happened. It’s, it’s marked not every time, but here’s, here’s the data. One week later out of all the times it’s happened. One week later the market was up 86% of the time with an average gain of 2.88%. One month later it was up 86% of the time as well with a gain of 4.72%. So this really does play well with the seasonality that again turned bullish today through December 7th. Also yesterday volume on the S500 was the highest level it’s been since Guess what, the April 7 tariff mania crash lows.

[00:13:20]:
It’s very common to see high volumes like this just as market bottoms are occurring. And again that’s what we saw yesterday. We’ve shared several more this morning, but I think you get the drift. This is what we’ve seen is a classic shakeout that took us back to the for example on the on the semis again our leading index. I’ll cover that more in a moment. The semis pull back to the 100 day and I shared this chart this afternoon. We’re going to be putting on a new position Monday in the semis, a leveraged etf. And all things being equal, look, we’d love to see a lower open on Monday that capitulation Monday.

That’s I’ve got the best, you know, buys of my career never settle on a Monday. I, I also don’t like buying on Friday. I mean I, I now wish I’d bought this morning. Of course as we had a lower open. NASDAQ at one point was down a couple hundred points and then but again John Williams comments really I think gave people more confidence that the Fed is much more open minded to cutting at their December 10th meeting. I’ll be shocked if they don’t at this point. I’ll be shocked if they don’t. But again the semis hit a level today again at the 100 day.

Pretty rare in this kind of a move higher we’ve had while at the same time hitting the most oversold levels that we’ve seen again from the April 7 tariff mania crash lows. So we’re not at our most oversold condition of extreme oversold on steroids. But folks we are very close to that in the semis. Very and by the way all the major indexes exact same thing. Not quite as oversold as the semis but very close to it. This is a I think again I think within two weeks people will barely remember why this happened. You’ll remember the pain and probably how much you’re paying to your attention, you’re paying the portfolio, but that’ll be about it. You know, I think the best advice I’ve gotten over my career is when you see this kind of a shakeout, when you really think you should sell some positions, the best thing to do is leave the office, go see a movie, go play golf, go take a long walk, just get out in front of your screen.

[00:15:30]:
Because if you have good positions, and we do here, you know, every position we own here, we know it and we know it well. And the VRA system keeps us very diversified as well. So we, you know, we have a very eclectic portfolio. It’s kind of a hedge fund that we just do that. I’ve not seen anyone else that approaches like we do. But this comes natural to me because we follow so many different sectors and in asset classes as well. So when you have the positions we have, from gold to silver to miners, yes, to bitcoin, which again has been hit solid. Remind me this morning, I mean, this is the personality of bitcoin.

This has happened many times. There’s never been quite this much money invested in bitcoin. So the pain and the paper losses, if you will, of the last couple of weeks, really longer again, going back to October 4th has been greater. But this has been kind of a classic bitcoin trading pattern. From the first time we bought it at $2,000, recommended at 2,000. Again, we’ve done pretty well in this group. We have gains of just in bitcoin alone since 2017 of 2,280%. Those are gains that we have locked in, not paper gains.

We, we’ve traded bitcoin twice and we are back long again from 1001000 when we bought it again. So we’re down in that position now, but very confident in right now. And here’s another reason why I think you’re all going to like this. Guess who turned bearish on bitcoin today? Yeah, you got it. Jim Cramer. Wrong way Runway. Jim Cramer, who Again, my dinner with Ryan the other night, he said the exact same thing. This is, folks, this is, this is exactly what happened with Kramer.

[00:17:16]:
I’m telling you, Jim Cramer sold out to the state, to the deep state. I was watching. I don’t watch CNBC anymore, as you probably know, but I was watching CNBC when Jim Cramer said two things. I saw both live. Jim Cramer was talking about energy stocks, and this is many years ago, and he went bearish. I, I am bearish on energy stocks because of climate Change. I think banks aren’t going to loan anymore. These companies just won’t be in business in 10, 20 years.

They won’t be able to get loans because of climate change. And we’re going to a green, a green energy planet. So I knew, I knew at that moment because that, that’s, that’s, that’s, that’s complete idiocy. Even if we wanted to get off of fossil fuels, you’re looking at something that’s going to take 50 years. Otherwise, a lot of people die, A lot of people, a billion, two billion people die without the energy source from, from fossil fuels. So I knew right away, okay, this guy, my thought was he sold out. What, who is, who is lining his pocket with money. And then the second time, of course, and this is frankly the worst thing I’ve ever seen on television.

And it’s why I haven’t watched CNBC in five years. Number one there, the propaganda network for the pandemic. But when Cramer said he was angry when he said it too. You could see it visceral that we need to use the military, the United States military, to forcibly, to go out in the street. You have to forcibly make people take the jabs. That, that’s, that’s when I’ve been done with cnbc. But anyway, Kramer, today goes bearish on bitcoin. So I think we can confidently say the lows are in.

[00:19:05]:
I sometimes think he does these on purpose. Like maybe, maybe one of these days he’s going to come out and say, you know what, folks, I hope you all made a lot of money doing the opposite what I said, because I did it on purpose. I really believe the other thing. It’s kind of something I could see him saying one of these years. But you also see another chart in our very letter on Monday. We love relative strength charts here. And there’s a good one. I got a good one for you of bitcoin to gold.

Now, you know, you know we love gold. So this is not a knock on gold, trust me. This is all about relevant strength and how oversold bitcoin is. Bitcoin is now as oversold as it’s been in two years to gold. And is that an important support level? While it’s also hitting extreme oversold on steroids, this is a near perfect opportunity to add bitcoin to your portfolio at these prices. Okay, Again, we’re at 85. One as I speak. So thank you, Jim Cramer, for giving us that high probability buy signal for bitcoin.

I have to say again, today Our focus really is on what to do now. I didn’t really want to say, oh, this is going on. I think this is what’s happening. So what happened? I mean, you know, who knows what’s really happening and why this, why this happened? Is there really a civil war going on between the Fed and the Trump administration? Did they really think that Trump is going to eventually try to take over the Federal Reserve and maybe, as a lot of people believe, merge it or vend it into the Treasury? You can see a lot of people, the Federal Reserve are going to push back on that civil war. Lisa Cook, when she, we covered this some yesterday, the minute that Lisa Cook, the fired Federal Fed governor, Lisa Cook, okay. For mortgage fraud, still in the job because she appealed it. And now it’s going to be heard in January at the Supreme Court, I believe. But she gave a speech yesterday where she basically, she basically called, said we’re at high risk of a market crash.

[00:21:03]:
That, that’s, that’s what she said. And she laid out the reasons why. Again, the Fed has added, apparently, a third mandate. It’s not just full employment and price stability, is now managing market expectations and warning about crashes as well. But the minute that happened, that was the top in the market. That felt very coordinated to me. And I think I speak for a lot of people, and I don’t believe, by any means do I believe that was a coincidence. That was the top.

We saw the reversal lower. Now, if you want to talk about a conspiracy theory, I’ll give you one that actually kind of makes sense. By the way, do you see this kind of ties in with Trump and Mom Domini? Do you see Trump and Mom Domini today? Did you see Trump slobbering all over him, complimenting him, saying he has a chance to be a great mayor for New York City? Now that’s Trump. You know, he gives people a chance in public. He’s very magnanimous. That’s just who Trump is, right? That’s just who Trump is. Rarely do you see him get in a situation where he’s going to attack somebody to their face in public. He’s also fellow New Yorker along with mom dummy.

So I think that, I think that Trump actually is kind of setting him up there. I don’t think, by the way, he didn’t do any Republicans any favors yesterday, because this is what Republicans are going to run on for the midterms. This is it. All right. We talked about this a lot here. Vote for Republicans or your city will eventually be run by communists. So I think that, I think that the, the, the, the love session we saw between those two is going to reverse here. But back to the conspiracy theory that may well have played out here.

[00:22:47]:
I would, I would put this at a, at a pretty high probability of actually being the case. Trump and Bessant are pounding the table on a rate cut in the December 10th meeting. We’ve all seen it. Bessant is, is pounding pal on it every chance he gets. We know that Trump has done it. Trump would have fired him already, except Bessant essentially talked him out of it. And again, as Tyler said, you know, you fire him and then what happens? He stays in the job, he’s going to appeal it just like Lisa Cook did. He’s not going to leave the job, but it would just cause a lot of turmoil in the markets.

Right. It would be, be calamity in the markets on, on that news at the open the next day. So it’s not, that’s not really something that Trump can do. I know a lot of people wish he would just not smart to do it at this point. But because Besset runs the treasury, he has control over the treasury general account. And that’s where the lack of liquidity was. That started this whole snowball action from the short term liquidity concerns. And that trillion dollars sitting in the treasury general account that never made it into the financial system finally now starting to barely bleed out.

I could see that this is a way to put pressure on the Federal Reserve. So many people own Bitcoin, including government employees, Federal Reserve governors, central banks are in the world, you know, that they have positions of bitcoin not announced. Some, some have announced it. But by causing these asset classes to, to plummet like this, what they’ve done effectively is put pressure on the Fed to, to cut rates in December. And I think, I think a 5D chess way to look at this is, yeah, we’re going to have some turmoil in the markets here for a couple, three weeks, but it’ll accomplish our goal of getting the Fed to cut rates to December 10th. It will work in the long run. And guess what? We’re then going to have a very merry Christmas because we know the markets love rate cuts. And here we go this morning.

[00:24:52]:
What happens, John Williams before the open comes out and says, yeah, we’re very, we’re very open to a rate cut. Well, howdy Doody, look at, look at what just happened here. So I think, I think we have a pretty high probability that the lows are in. And just as a Reminder, you know, our, our nothing about what we look at has changed. The Vray system is at 9 to 12 screens. Bullish ran it again last night. Nothing has changed there. The technicals aren’t great.

The valuations are high, but leadership has been poor. Okay, again, semis leading lower. But you’re going to see this chart for me on Monday of our favorite relative strength chart of the semis test P500. This has been the dominant directional tell for the markets since the birth of Quantitative easing in 2008. This exact chart I’m going to show you Monday morning. And it’s pulled back to exactly, exactly the lower trend line of this year. That’s been hit three times now. In the previous two times it was the bottom.

I believe it’s marked the bottom again today and again you’ll see it Monday again. If you’re not with us, come join us@verainsider.com again vrainsider.com check out, check it out for two, three weeks. I typically don’t mention it, but we probably should say on every podcast, but again, we love you as listeners here. We love to have you come join us, try out for two free weeks. It cost you nothing. Get access to everything we have and then hopefully you’ll stay with us. We’d love for you to, but when the semis are leaving higher. And that is what they’ve been doing from exactly the April 7th tier of many lows.

[00:26:33]:
Now this shakeout we just had has taken us back exactly to that lower trend line. And, and now, and now we reversed higher semis finished up today 6/10 of a percent. They were down this morning over 2.2%. That, that was when we were a little dicey looking today. I was like, okay, here we go. You’re going to have a bad Friday and then maybe we’ll finally get our capitulation Monday. I love capitulation Mondays. They’re, they, they, they’re scary.

It’s not how you really want to start your week, not your Monday, which Mondays aren’t the best day for a lot of people anyway. But they, they almost always mark the lows after, after a shakeout like this. And who knows, we may get a lower open of money. I, frankly, I hope we do because we want to put this new position on the semis. So I hope we get a lower open. It’ll be a perfect time to act. But I think regardless, you know, the, the lows are in here. Our big three haven’t changed, just like the bureau system hasn’t Changed.

They are the Trump economic miracle. The Trump administration and you hear this from all of them. You know, every, every part of the, on the, on the, on the financial, economic side, they all say the same thing. Wait until you see what’s going to happen in the first and second quarter of next year beginning then that’s when the, that’s when the one big beautiful bill and all the benefits From Trump’s first 10 months in office, that’s really when they’re going to start kicking in. It takes time to deal with the transition of the Biden insanity to flush out the nonsense that we were forced to live with for four years. It feels like Trump’s been in office a lot longer than a year, does it not or 10 months. It does to me. But he hasn’t and that’s why we’re very bullish on the second year.

[00:28:15]:
We think next year is going to be a barn burner every year looking at gains of third I think 30% SB, 550% on NASDAQ next year. And yet this latest sell off here has flushed the system. A lot of weekends are out and it set up another phenomenal buying opportunity. But we can Trump economic miracle. We’re going to with it really kicking in next year. As a reminder, the Atlanta Fed just yesterday or it was yesterday or Wednesday maybe Wednesday afternoon came out and updated their GDP now estimate essentially their version of forecasting economic growth in the GDP and updated it to for third quarter of growth of 4.2%. That’s a new cycle high from Atlanta Fed. It may be impacted somewhat, probably will because of the shutdown.

But again that’s, that’s a one off the markets and everyone will look exactly through that again. It won’t be remembered, the shutdown won’t be remembered until they try to do it again in January as a concern. But honestly I think Democrats, they may have won a couple of elections in very blue states where they’re, they’re rigged anyway. But I think by and large Democrats realized that was a losing proposition. I don’t think we’re going to have another shutdown insanity next year. I don’t see that I could well be wrong. I don’t want to be wrong. I hope I’m right and I think I am.

I think it may have won them elections but I think on the national level it was very unpopular because it just made no sense. It made no common sense. And we really are back as a country. Our country’s red pilled. It’s much more common sense. America now that’s where most people reside. And, and I think that’s, I think that’s how the election is going to go next year. But again the three biggies Trump economic miracle, the innovation revolution we talk about all the time here.

[00:30:08]:
Everyone talks about it in vividness. Numbers, yes, were unbelievable. There seems to be no slowdown now. It’s just going to spread, it’s going to broaden as will the rest of the market and the economy. And these resets like we just, we just lived through these are actually bullish. These extend and, and prolong bull markets. That’s why you need these. They’re healthy, they’re painful, they suck but they serve a purpose.

And then they extend the runs and then the final again we talked about a minute ago, liquidity in the US and global. It’s not just a US story, it’s liquidity everywhere. And again if gold had had a freak out I would not be saying what I’m saying here. I’d be concerned. But again I shared the chart this afternoon with you in our afternoon letter and that, that chart of, of gold over what it’s done while the rest of the market’s freaked out the last couple weeks. I mean gold has done nothing but base and move higher. We don’t have global liquidity issues. They could happen.

We don’t have them now. Very, very bullish. Right. And our, our tails remain Bitcoin and the semis both I think the lows. And thank you again to Jim Kramer. Hopefully he went bearish on the semis today too. But I think that’s, that’s, that’s really what’s going to lead the way higher here. And I think we’re going to look back at the end of the year.

[00:31:30]:
It’s not take long at the end of the year because this could be a, this, this should be a melted move higher to year end. The seasonals are great. We know it’s the best time to be an investor. I think we are likely to get a rate cut in December. The market’s now discounting, they’re going to start discounting that. You see what small caps did today. I’m again another indicator that rates are going lower and will continue to small caps today. The Russ 2000 today was up 2.8% as leading index by a lot by more than two, two times.

Dow Jones was up a buck and a quarter 1.25%. Again Russell’s thousand small caps up 2.8% and they were just a beast right out of the gate this Morning. We’re very long that group, of course. And you may have also seen housing. Again, I’m going to focus on this chart on, on, on Monday. But I’m looking at the, the chart right now of xhb. We own the three time leverage ETF or two time leverage ETF and housing xhb. Xhb, I’m sorry, is the homebuilder etf.

Take a look at that chart. Just RSI just hit extreme oversold. Stochastics just bounced off of near extreme oversold. And we same thing. MACD and money flow, our four momentum oscillators. Just as XHB fell back to the 200 day moving average just below it, it popped, it just popped its head below it. This is very common in the world of technical analysis. You see a.

[00:33:03]:
Oh, no, no, don’t follow. Don’t fall through the 200 day. Well, that’s our, believe me, that’s our approach too. But, but we’re not concerned unless it stays below the 200 day at least a week. And then that means at that point the 200 day now becomes resistance instead of supply. Well, today xhb was up 4.6%. Our leveraged ETF today was up 15%. But again, it’s been pretty beaten up.

So we need that move. We need another day like this to get as close to being even in that. But again, with rates moving lower, we saw it today, small caps, huge beneficiary of lower rates. Housing obviously, huge beneficiary of lower rates. Rates are going to continue lower, folks. That’s been our call for some time, even when it wasn’t popular. And I think we’re going to see rates plummet here. I really see.

Well, look, we’re going to have a new Fed, we’re going to have a new Fed chair in May of next year. Probably not before. Kind of hope it’s not before again. It would be a nightmare, frankly, for the markets trying to, trying to work that out, the drama. We don’t need it. We just don’t need it. I think Trump understands that. Hope so.

[00:34:13]:
But it won’t just be Powell that’s gone again. You’re going to have four total, four Fed governors that will have been replaced with Trump’s people. This is going to be a, it’s going to be an amazing change of the Federal Reserve and rates are going to plummet. And again, all of these things are very bullish. And the market, you know, the market discounts up to six months out. Well, we’re there now, you know, Powell in six months will be gone. So again, there are just a lot of reasons that, again, our macro story hasn’t changed. There’s a ton of reason to be bullish here.

We’ve seen what earnings are doing, right? This is, this is the best earnings growth, profitability for SPF 100 companies. This is the best profit growth for companies in six, seven years. And I think that was probably from the plandemic. Right? But you’re seeing, you know, you’re seeing profitability. Look, we’re the communications sector. 27%, 27% growth in bottom line profitability this quarter, year over year. And again, we think that’s spreading. It is spreading.

We’ve maintained our estimate for third quarter. We don’t have the final number yet. We’re still sitting at 13 to 15%. I think it’ll be, I think it’ll be toward 15%, and that’ll make four quarters that we’ve been over 10% even when Biden was, was president. Part of this, that just shows you the underlying strength of the market for all the structural reasons that we’ve been talking about with you here. So the good news, it was like the Fed may actually avoid a positive mistake here. At least this time. Rate should already be a lot lower, but they are going lower.

[00:35:57]:
All right, So I think we should have a good weekend, folks. I think the lows are in. We see it in the analytics. Seasonality is bullish, and I think there are some phenomenal buys here. And congratulations, everybody. That said, you know what? This is, this is noise. I’m gonna ignore this. There’s no, there’s, there’s nothing really new here.

And I know that I speak for most of you, if not all of you that did just that just kind of grinned and bared it, which is not always easy to do because hindsight is so easy, right? It’s. We talked about this the other day. You know, we beat ourselves up, you know, on so many things. We work hard, we’re entrepreneurial, we love our families, we want to provide, we want to grow our nest egg for all the right reasons. It’s hard to help the poor when you’re one of them. You know, it’s hard to help others when you don’t have money. It’s just, that’s the way it is. Not all of us have a lot of time to dedicate to causes that need it, but we have money we can do that with.

And so the more you have, the more you can help. But I’m just not A big believer in guilt. A good friend of mine. Long time ago. This must have been 25 years ago, Mike F is all I’ll say. I was having a bit of a rough day. I was having to leave town, leave the country, actually. Not because I was being forced to.

[00:37:21]:
I was going. I was going to Panama, actually. We used to work with some law firms down there and some investment firms. I mean, it’s structural. You probably understand why it’s not quite as interesting as a place it used to be. For that reason, the laws have changed a bit, but still, great asset protection strategies. Of course, in Panama, we don’t really do that anymore. It just.

It. It. I. I don’t like freaking like traveling that much anymore. I don’t like leaving the country. I’m doing what I like to do, what I should do, which is stay in front of this machine, right, and make sure we. We see. I.

I don’t like missing anything, you know, I think that’s the best way I can be of service to you, because not everybody is able to do that. But if I’m here, then I’m at least fulfilling part of my requirement to help you make money by making sure we don’t miss anything. But anyway, I was about to leave town. Cindy, I think, wasn’t feeling great or something like that had to have been it. And I was talking to Mike on the cell phone on the way to the airport. Said, mike, I just feel. Man, I just feel guilty. I don’t have.

[00:38:18]:
I got a knot in my stomach that says I should not be going. I got to make this trip. But I got a knot. And he goes. He stopped me right there. He said, kip, I want you to remember two words. Guilt sucks. You can’t change anything that’s happened one second ago.

And it makes no sense to feel guilty. You learn from your mistakes, learn from things, but it makes no sense whatsoever to be guilty or to beat yourself up. And it was such good advice to this day. When something. When I have guilt about something, that’s what the first thing pops in my mind. Guilt sucks. So thank you again, Mike, for that lesson a long time ago. But we can’t change anything about what’s happened.

Yes, it would have been phenomenal if we all sold 80% of our stocks two, three weeks ago. That would have been great. Well, would it have when will we bought back? Or would we have. How about the taxes we would have had to pay because we made that decision? I mean, that’s not an insignificant consideration. But again, high confidence Call here folks. By the end of this year we’re barely going to remember what just happened. Especially with the company. If you have own good companies, this is a buying opportunity, this is a gift.

[00:39:29]:
And you know the stocks we feel about, you know, we feel that way about Tesla. They’re going to have the year they’re going to have. I think, I think the move into year end and the move they’re going to have in 2026 is going to be mesmerizing because it’s all happening right? The autonomous vehicles. Of course. As you know, I have a Tesla. It literally drives me everywhere when I drive it. And it’s a fun car to drive because it’s the fastest car on the road. You know, it doesn’t have gears so you don’t get that jerky feeling.

It just excel pure acceleration. Next thing you know you’re going 70. I mean it literally happens in less than two seconds. You’re going 0 to 60 in less than two seconds. It is, it is crazy. And you don’t, you feel like you’re going 30, right. So you have to be a little careful. But when I drive the car it sometimes feels a little strange because I don’t drive much anymore.

I just hit the button and said take me to wherever, give it the location or enter the address real quick and boom, hit the button and it goes. And I think, you know, this is a future that we’re going to become very accustomed to next year when we start getting in vehicles that don’t have the drivers can be weird for people but, but people will adapt because the price is going to be a third of what you’d pay your, your Uber. Remember when they first had Amazon? I, I think a lot of people, it wasn’t just me, said no, no, no. What do you mean I don’t want to buy something online. Yeah, I got to wait for it to be shipped to me. It may not be the right thing. Then if I need to return it. What? None of those things are consideration anymore.

[00:40:59]:
People shop on Amazon. I would say, what is it? Probably 80% of the stuff you buy now we buy on Amazon or other online store. But at first it felt, felt wrong. Well that’s going to be the case with autonomous transportation. And it’s not just the full self driving vehicles. It’s not just the cyber cab, the robo taxi. It’s also going to be and is now they’re already on the road. The Tesla semis.

Okay, so Tesla’s gonna just dominate as they have, you know, Their market cap, Tesla is larger today than the 21 other largest auto companies combined. How stunning is that? And so the stocks are great buy here. Of course, robotics is going to be the biggest thing they’ve ever done. And if you’ve seen the recent videos, I mean they’ve got, they’ve got this optimus robot to a point where the videos that Musk are sharing, it looks like it’s AI created, it doesn’t look real. And they’re going to be everywhere. I think we’re all going to be in within three, four years. We’re going to be placing our orders, we’re going to get on waiting list because by then they’ve already been, you know, they’re already in working right now in Tesla facilities. By the end of the year, several thousand will be working and they’re there now really.

I don’t know the number, but there are a lot of them. We’re seeing the videos of that. And then within, I think about three, maybe four years, we’ll be able to as individuals place our first orders. Of course, the elite will probably have their first optimist next year and the markets are just going to start, you know, gobbling the stock up. And retail investors have been all over Tesla as institutional investors. Analysts have been dead wrong. 48%. Only 48% of analysts have a buy recommendation on Tesla.

[00:42:48]:
I find that amazing. Yeah, it’s rich. I mean, based on, based on normal, valuable, based on Warren Buffett valuations, you would not buy Tesla as a value investor. And that’s a huge mistake. Again, we got to remember, Buffett just made his big investment in Google. That was the top that, that day, the day before it, Michael Burry closed down his hedge fund. And the next day Buffett announced Google. They, they both marked the top.

Now it’s short term of course, but that did happen. And so again, I think, you know, Google, I mean, see Tesla, you know, some other favorite Nvidia with the quarter they just had, I mean, what a, what a great buy that is at 180, you know, the stock, stock will be a thousand in 10 years, maybe 15, but it’s going a lot higher. Tesla, you know, 10,000, 10,000. In a decade it’s going to be a parabolic rocket ship. A lot of money is going to be made in Tesla and it’s going to be retail that makes it. And I think that’s fantastic. Okay, let’s take a look at the hood today. Much better.

Today was good, by the way, good internals. Today we had up events decline 4 to 1 positive for NYSE. Nasdaq just right at 3 to 1 positive. NYSE up volume 80.1%. That’s very good because we had two days this week where down volume was more than 80. You don’t want to see those cluster. Okay. And we, and we.

[00:44:12]:
I think now that tide has turned. Nasdaq up volume 64.2%. Not bad. We did have more than 400. 400 more stocks hit a 52 globe than high. That’s just not useful as a, as a day by day comparison thing. That’ll that, that’ll change markedly over the next week. And remember you know our 50th the percentage S500 below the 5200 day is like 55 now that is extreme oversold on steroids.

That is going to change a lot as well in our sector Watch perfection today. All 11 sector finished high on the day. Led to the upside by communication services essentially tech up 2.1%. Healthcare up 2.1%. Healthcare has been hot. We had three sectors up more than 2% today. Again nothing finished lower in a commodity watch again. What a beast gold has been.

That 4000 level is support now. First resistance then becomes support. That’s what it is. Now we’ll be talking about gold at 5,000. Before long the miners we’re going to make absolute fortunes in especially the junior miners, the ones that we own. We happen to know these stores pretty well. You know one snow line, Carson Block probably besides Jim Chanos. Carson Block is the was the best known short seller.

[00:45:36]:
Now both Chamos and Carson Block are both out of that business now. They don’t. Their hedge funds don’t short stocks anymore. It’s just too painful. You can’t do that. You can’t short stocks in a bull market. You just can’t. And you can’t be a bear in a bull market.

You just can’t. It’s just what’s not worth it. It’s just every day you just get getting beaten up. It’s depressing. I don’t know how they do it frankly. But again Carson Block, well known short seller, doesn’t do it anymore. And this week came out it just surprised everybody with a buy recommendation of Snowline Gold. What a beast.

This stock is up over 4,000% since they first started mining in the Yukon four years ago. And you know again it’s still cheap to where it’s going to be. He thinks the company will be bought out in three years. Yeah, I think that’s possible. We’ve asked Scott Bertol, the CEO about this and his answer has always been the same. And I love this guy. He’s one of the best. This is one of the best management groups that we’ve worked with certainly in the mining space.

[00:46:35]:
These are sharp young people that have a lot of experience. Scott and his father, it’s a father son team, they were walking the Yukon working as Davos geologists. They’re just walking, trying to see what they could find. When Scott was like a child, like you see pictures of him out there, you know, with a pick and shovel when he’s like 8. And so it’s a great story. These are good people. And it’s a stock that I think every, everyone should own this stock. I really believe that and we’ve done well in it, but nothing compared to what we’re going to do.

Again it’s Carson Block says the stock, the company’s going to be bought out in three years but from two to three times the valuation now it’s worth about Canadian dollars. It’s two point about right at a two billion dollar stock in US dollars it’s 1.6 billion. So they’ve come a long way, short period of time, just the beginning. It’s a massive find in the Yukon and they’ve only announced exploration results on about 5% of the property. So they’ve got a lot more drilling to do. I think we’ve asked God about are they going to be bought out and his answer’s always been the same which is this. We’re going to do what’s in the best interest of shareholders. Obviously we want to develop this as much as we can until it just doesn’t make sense to do it anymore because we’re going to have to get too big to do it.

We don’t have that talent and at that point we’ll look to sell the company. That’s what they’re going to do. Whether it happens in three years or five, I don’t know. We just ask them to hold off as long as possible. And the better setup by the way, and this is what I’ve told Vista Gold CEO as well, Todd and I have, is you don’t have to sell the whole company. Do do a joint venture where you keep, you can keep retained interest and have them carry you and still keep 30, 40, maybe 49% even of the play and then you can take that money. Well obviously we’ll all be well rewarded. We still have an interest in it because of the acquiring company and we still own Snowline or Vista Gold.

[00:48:28]:
And so this is the track they’re both going down. We have the same conversation with both these groups, of course, Fred Ernst, the CEO of Vista Gold, we know him well. And these bottom lines, junior miners, especially these, these two, at some point they’re both going to be bought out, at least to some degree, or have a significant joint venture with a much larger company because they’ve got a lot of gold in the ground already, you know. So again, I, I think this, this bull market in precious metals miners is just getting started. So gold today was up 2 bucks an ounce at 4062. Silver down 1 1/4% at 49.66. Love silver here as well. Copper today up a half percent at 499a pound.

Crude oil today down 96 cents a barrel back, but back below 58 now, 57.73 in fact, on the day, Bitcoin 84521 last trade, you’re down 4% over the last 24 hours. But again, it looks to put in a bottom here, of course. Thank you again, Jim Cramer, for that inverse buy recommendations. Inverse Jim Cramer is actually a thing I, I, there’s a etf, I believe, for that, isn’t there? I know they announced that they’ve lost. I’m sure they have, but. Wow, Jim Cramer, huh? All right, folks, listen, that’s it. Rough week. A much better ending to it.

Again, have a great weekend. We’ll get it again next week. Always appreciate you. Listen, have a great weekend and we’ll see you back here again Monday after the close.