In today's episode, Tyler kicks off the week with a deep dive into the markets as we continue to soar to all-time highs. He unpacks the major driver behind this rally, including the 5 Big Bribe Megatrends, record high money supply, the Fed's rate cuts, and where investors should look in a lower-yield environment. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Monday afternoon everyone. Tyler Herriage here with you for today’s VRA Investing Podcast. Hope you all had a fantastic weekend out there and an even better start to your week this week. And we what better way to start the week than with all time highs not only from our major indexes, some of our favorite sectors and some of our favorite commodities here as well.

We’ll cover all of that and more here on the podcast. Got a great podcast lined up for you here today to kick off the week where of course we’ll cover those all time highs and two main reasons with charts of why we see it continuing from here. In addition to all of the other reasons we often lay out here on the podcast, we’ll also cover briefly some of the latest news from Nvidia today as they just signed another massive deal here.

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And be sure to stay tuned until the end of the podcast as we’ll cover another massive all time high. Like I said a second ago for from gold and exactly what we’re doing here at the VRA to capitalize on this move here from not only gold but commodities as a whole. So let’s go ahead and jump right into it here. Thank you for being here with us today and thank you to Nicole Petalides and Charles Schwab Network today for having me on the watch list I was on today at 2:30 Eastern Time. If you haven’t had a chance to check it out yet, you can find the link on my Twitter or X feed. Just put that post out just before the podcast here as well. Or go check it out on schwabnetwork.com you can find it under the watch list there. We had an opportunity to discuss, you know, some of the VRA’s favorite themes right now.

If you’re a regular listener, you’re very familiar with these themes, namely the Innovation Revolution. Innovation revolution meets roaring 2020s and a few of our favorite positions here as well, including our number one position to own for the Innovation Revolution. We also covered a wide variety of topics beyond that, you know, from our broad market to our views on the Federal Reserve and rate cuts from here and then of course gold and the miners as well. So again, thank you for having me on Nicole and Charles Schwab Network and if you haven’t had a chance to watch it yet, go check it out on my X feed right now. My handle There is at T. Harridge 18 so come and check us out. Would love to hear your feedback on it as well. So as I mentioned to Nicole, you know, always great to be here with you on a day with all time highs.

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And you know, if you’ve been a listener here with us for a while, you know, we’re seeing a little bit of a trend change here. Kip and I have a long running joke that he gets the days, the big updates, the all time high days, and I inevitably get the down days. Now I might get an all time high mixed in there, especially when you get back to back or multiple days in a row of all time highs. But it really has been the case since we started this podcast that I’ve gotten some of the biggest down days out there. So, you know, very grateful to be here with you today and it hadn’t been the case lately. So we’ll see if that trend has changed for us here. Now, if you are a newer podcast listener or a newer VRA member, you know, or just underinvested in this market, right. I know it can be tough to hear someone super bullish when you’re hitting all time highs because it’s easy to be bullish at all time highs in blue sky territory when no one has a loss at these levels.

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But again, if you’re newer here, nothing’s changed in our tune. We’ve been bullish from the October lows of 2022 and from the April lows of this year as well. So if you feel like you’ve missed out on this market, let me tell you right now, we don’t see that as the case here. Now, if you’re a regular listener, and I say that because we are in the early innings of this bull market, I’ll take a step back here really quickly. I’ve said this in my interview today. We’ve compared this to the 1995 to 2000.com melt up where the NASDAQ rallied over 580%. And we see this again early innings kind of action here. So if you feel like you’ve missed out, it’s not too late to get into this market.

It never feels good to be buying, you know, when you thought you could have bought lower at a better price to be buying at all time highs. But I’ll give you one piece of advice here in just a second. Now for our regular listeners, you know that we do pause our our monthly dollar cost average buy programs when we’ve hit extreme overbought levels, which we are at right now. However, again, if you’re underinvested or new here, if you were to be buying today, you know, maybe you could wait a little bit if you have the patience to do so, get a better buying opportunity. But regardless if you, even if you’re buying today, we think you’re going to be very happy with your purchase over the next 12 to 18 months. And if you can think even longer term than that, you are going to be thrilled with your purchase and say, wow, you know, I’m glad that I pulled the trigger at all time highs. And I say that for one simple reason. I referenced it just a second ago.

We’re big believers here in monthly dollar cost averaging for multiple reasons. So if you don’t take away anything from this podcast other than that, look more into monthly dollar cost averaging essentially to boil it down really quickly. You know, we use this for our favorite positions in the market. You know, if you’re just an index kind of person, which is fine as well, you can apply it to the indexes. Essentially what you do every month, you’re going to set aside, you know, part of your paycheck to put into your savings account. Many people do that already. And you’re going to use that. You can either use it or not, right? But you’re going to use it to buy your favorite stocks regardless of what has happened.

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You know, unless nothing is as long as nothing has changed in the story, right, then why would you change your buying pattern? Right? So if the stock has gone lower, then hey, you know, you’re getting, you’re bringing down your cost basis. If the stock has come up, hey, you’re getting more shares of a company that you already like a lot. So it really applies to high quality names, maybe not so much to leverage ETFs, which we like a lot here at the VRA for market timing, maybe not always the best for monthly dollar cost averaging. That’s more for our VRA Tim Baggers. Right. Just a quick explanation of how we do that here. We use the leverage ETFs for our market timing for from the VRA investing system, which we reference here often. Our our proprietary system that was developed by Kip and his mentors and continuously refined here, which is made up of 70% fundamental screens, 30% technical.

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I’ll do, I’ll share that as well on my next podcast for for those coming back. But again, we’ll use those leverage ETFs for market timing and take the profits and continue to monthly dollar cost average with them. So this approach really helps remove the emotion from investing, which is really the largest hurdle to get over for so many people. So I can’t recommend it enough. Again, if you only take away one thing from this podcast today, I’ve got a lot of great stuff coming, but monthly dollar cost averaging, it’s, it’s, you know, really can be a game changer, especially if you’re struggling with removing the emotion from your investing. And if that’s something you’re struggling with again, I highly encourage you to come and join us here at the Vlog vra. That’s exactly why we developed, like why Kip developed the VRA investing system was to remove the emotion from investing. So with that said, we do see this as early bull market action here.

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You know, if we’re comparing it to that 1995 to 2000 melt up, you know, we could be in still in 1996, maybe 97, probably not even that. Probably the first inning, really, this is the easiest way to say it, although it’s been a great the first inning, that’s for sure. So we laid out all of our main reasons for being bullish From October of 2022 in our book the Big Bribe, which you’ll get for free. If you’d like to join us for 14 free days@vra letter.com our 5 Big Bribe Mega trends we explain in full detail there. One of them being financial engineering, which I’ll get to here in just a second to quickly cover. The others, corporate earnings expansion, which we’ve continued to see this year. And we expect Q3 to be another strong quarter. A long term housing boom, which is a contrarian call right now.

Not a whole lot of people out there with that. The next one is the millennial generation and unloved generation. And now we might have to add the upcoming generations into that as well because they love innovation, they love investing, they want to own a home and they want to give back to their country. And that leads us to the red pilling of America. And how relevant is that right now? After Charlie Kirk’s funeral yesterday, I talked a little bit about that on my podcast last week, last Thursday, you know, what a great testimony it was to his life yesterday. And just say here once again, thank you Charlie, for your mission, for your boldness, and most importantly, your unwavering faith in Christ. What an encouragement. I know that it has been on so many people, myself included.

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So rest in peace, Charlie. I won’t get emotional about it here again today, but you know, it’s just, you know, again, thank you for your feedback on that as well. I know how many of you have felt his loss so heavily as well. So thank you again Charlie for all of your hard work and we’ll continue it from here. And that’s one of our goals here at the VRA as well. From a different angle, from the financial point of view. You know, there’s so many people who just can’t stand the stock market. But it is the greatest money making mechanism ever created.

Look back, I mean we’re at all time highs today. That’s the story of the US stock market that when we stumble we get right back up and we get back to to those all time highs again. It’s easy to say when you’re in blue sky territory, but nothing has changed in our view. We’ve hit numerous all time highs since 2022. We’ve never changed our tune. A lot of people call us a permable, right? That’s fine. You can call us whatever you want. We like making money in the market.

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That’s what matters at the end of the day. So we don’t believe in being perma anything. Perma bull, perma bear. We’re going to listen to the market and make good decisions based off of what it is telling us. Not reaction, right, not oh, this just happened. We got to buy or sell now. No calm, unemotional, educated fact based decisions on the market. That’s what we love to do here at the vra.

So with that said, I’ll give you two great reasons right now to remain long and strong this market. If you’ve read the Big Bribe, you’re familiar with this one already. I’ll go ahead and share my screen here. Number one, first and foremost, M2 money supply. Kip often, when I got started in this business, talked about his mentors. This was a primary factor that they looked at. Though an M2 is on the rise, you want to be long stocks. Now once again, we are at all time highs here for money supply.

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Now a lot of people look at this and think inflation’s got to go with it. Right now we’re seeing a lot of actually disinflation to even deflationary aspects in this market that are helping offset this. But that doesn’t take away from the fact that your dollar is still being devalued. Right. The Fed’s goal openly, they say they’re going to devalue your dollar. Inflation’s at. They want it at 2% every year, which is criminal in my mind. It should be 0% at.

Absolutely. That’s was the original goal. You go back and look at some of the Fed minutes from the 70s 80s. I, I have to go back and make sure it’s in the 80s. But you really didn’t become this 2% target openly until the 2000s, which means that your dollar is going to be devalued roughly by half every 30 years. And that’s baked in the cake. That’s how the system operates, right? So when you understand that, you know that you must own and, and what we say here, often you must own inflationary assets because cash is trash. Inflationary assets, meaning stocks, simply enough means commodities like gold and silver.

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Cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is the newest asset in that class. And of course, housing as well. Real estate. These are things that as the dollar’s devalued, they will increase in value. And it really again is not even so much always that they’re increasing in value as much as it can be that your dollar is decreasing from there. So when you look at a chart like this, you see M2 at all time highs. Again, we want to be long socks.

This doesn’t seem like they’re turning the money printers off anytime soon here. And then to a point that Nicole made today about the Fed cutting rates, which in our view they should have cut by, you know, much greater than they did 25 basis points in their last meeting. But, but regardless, we’re no longer and haven’t been. The Fed has been in an easing type of mindset here somewhat since they started cutting last year. But now it’s out there in the open. We’re not fighting the Fed. But you know, one of the downsides, I guess, in this scenario to the Fed leaving rates where they are is that there’s easier ways than stock market right now. And really though, when you’re talking about bonds, bond yields specifically, or money market accounts, right.

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When you go back and do the research of if you had been in a money market account over the last 20 years, you would be, you know, you would vastly have underperformed the market. You would have vastly underperformed gold. Right. You’re just barely treading water with inflation, really. And most of the time losing to inflation. With these kinds of accounts, it seems good. Oh, I’m going to get 3 to 4%, sometimes even 5, depending on where you’re at. But you’re barely keeping up with inflation.

Right. Because if inflation’s at 2% and you’re earning 3%, 1% is not enough to get ahead where the market averages far greater returns. And we’ve seen far greater returns over the years. So this is a statistic here. For you next, that continues to surprise us. And, and that is assets and money market funds which just hit another all time high at $7.7 trillion in money market accounts is tripled since 2017, telling you how much money there is in the system. So what happens from here? As the Fed cuts interest rates, it means lower returns, lower yields and in money market accounts it obviously means lower yields in bonds coming as well, which that has been our long term view that simply gravity with bonds, they’ll continue to fall here. So again, a lower fed funds rate means lower yields for money market accounts and reduced returns for anyone saving in money market accounts.

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So as those returns diminish, they will be forced into the stock market, forced into other asset classes just to keep up. Right. So this is a massive pool of funds sitting on the sidelines right now essentially that hasn’t even made its way into the market. Can you imagine when $7.7 trillion of assets start searching for a place in this market? Whether you know, again, money managers as well have been grossly under underweight. The markets in this environment, they’re going to be playing catch up as well. So when that finally does change, it’s going to be a massive liquidity event for our markets and again just fuel to the fire for our major indexes here. So with that said, let’s take a look at our major indexes again a day of all time highs here, Nasdaq leading the way. Exactly what you want to see tech leading up 7/10 of 1% at 22,788.

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And what do you want to see leading tech? We talk about this year often as well. You want to see semis leading tech. The semis all time high today, up a massive 2% on the day today. It helped that Nvidia just signed a roughly $100 billion deal with Chat GPT to help increase data centers there as well. So again might look at that from some financial engineering point of views. We only have so much time here on the podcast today to dive into that. But if you’ve been with us here for a while, you know what I’m talking about. Next up here, the small caps up just about 6/10 of 1%.

Again an all time high here where I covered this on the show today as well. When the Fed cuts rates within 1% of an all time high for the broad market, the returns over the next year are incredible, averaging 15 with a 100 win rate. But after that first rate cut, small caps tend to outperform large caps by 5 to 7% as well. So we continue to like the small caps. Great to see them at an all time high again to start off the week s P500 up just over 4/10 of 1% at 6693. Lastly here the Dow Jones up 0.14% or 66 points to 46. 381 also an all time high. And take one more look at this screen here.

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All right, next up looking at our internals on the day, this is the one we’ve talked. Well we talk about it every day but I referenced it a little bit last week that we would have liked to have seen a little bit better numbers. Well we would have liked that today as well. But I will point out we must have finished at or near the highs of the day for advancing stocks on the NYSE because this number was negative a lot throughout the day and now it didn’t come in largely positive, you know just 15 more advancers than decliners but nonetheless finished positive. And also again finishing at the highs of the day is always good to see. We saw some of that in our major indexes as well. I didn’t talk about that but we finished large part either at or near the highs of the day to day. Next up for our internals, 52 week highs to lows also coming in nicely positive just shy of 3 to 1 positive on the NYSE but a big 5 to 1 positive on the NASDAQ.

Finally here, volume also coming in positive on the NYSE and just shy of 2 to 1 positive on the NASDAQ. So good numbers overall. Not burning down the house but hey that’s a sign here that we have. Excuse me once again more room to run. Next up here let’s take a look at our sectors on the day to day. We finished with 4 out of our 11s P500 sectors higher on the day to day. Again an all time high as you might expect from the tech sector. Next up here might surprise a few people.

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Utilities right behind tech trying to lead the way, trying to get back just you know, a couple dollars away per share on xlu, the utilities ETF from its all time high. Now what does that tell you on a day with yields higher as well? Well utilities are the biggest borrowers of debt in the nation. The stock market is a forward looking mechanism. So if people are buying utilities they’re banking on yields heading lower over the long term over the next six to to 12 months. It’ll likely start sooner than that as the Fed does continue to cut rates and hopefully, you know, potentially even more aggressively. I won’t dive into all of that here today. But they, that’s absolutely what they need to be doing. We’ve said here for a while this is looks like another major policy mistake from too late J.

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Powell. You know, got to be his fifth or sixth major policy error as his tenure as the Fed chair. We cover these here often on the podcast. So if you want to hear more about them, you know, go check out some of, some of the last ones that Kip and I have done. We do cover this here pretty often then for the rest of our leaders, we had industrials which are making their way back to an all time high as well. And then after that, real estate. While we don’t usually track the real estate sector, especially the S and P, it’s mostly made up of REITs. We like the home builders more.

Uh, we did just take another position in the home builders as well. So if you’re interested, go check us out again@vra letter.com our laggards on the day were communication services. Didn’t help that Meta and Google finished the the day lower. They make up a huge portion of that sector. Next up there though was Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary. Finally here for today, let’s take a look at our VRA commodity watchers. Excited to to dive into this one here and on Nicole’s show I’ll go ahead and throw this one out there for our regular listeners and members. Specifically, I wanted to get to Snowline Gold on our show today.

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We just didn’t have time to get there. I kept, you know, I should have brought it up because I kept kind of waiting for that question as I first talked about Snowline on their show in June or so, roughly at, you know, $5 a share. Today we’re at. Let’s just get a quick see where we are after the close at 763 a share. And we just got back from this trip to the Yukon and could not be more impressed with this company, not only with their asset, which is absolutely world class, only 5% of their acreage has been explored. And just within that 5% has the potential to be the third largest producing gold miner in Canada today. With just 5% of their acreage explored. And that’s not even, that’s incredibly impressive.

But what’s even more impressive is this team and the community that Scott Bernhall, the CEO there has put together. You know, father son team. His father Ron is a prospector out in the UConn so, you know, as a father son team here, we love that story. But getting to meet some of the boots on the ground people who are out there drilling core samples, who are out there every day, I I don’t know if I’ve said this story on the podcast, but it was really cool to hear, you know, just from somebody on site there who didn’t even have a primary role at Snowline. I think it was their second year on site and the sentiment seemed to be the same everywhere. That was like you asking what they like the most about this and they’re just about to shut down camp for the winter. They’re like, oh man. You know, every single one of us has talked about this, that, you know, this is the best experience ever.

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It’s a once in a lifetime opportunity not to only be out there, but to work for such a great company and basically said, you know, anytime we have to go back off site, we can’t wait to get back to work. It’s exactly what you want to hear from a company from the boots on the ground all the way up to the top of the top of the leadership team. So not only fantastic management, but just a fantastic company culture there as well. All right, so on the gold front, gold did hit an all time high today as well, on its way to our four thousand dollar an ounce year end price target. On our way to $5,000 price target in the next couple of years. And then of course our newest target, the $15,000 an ounce mark in roughly the next seven years from now. That’s how bullish we are on gold here, folks. You know, I don’t know if you could find a bigger bull on this space than us out there right now.

So always great to hit an all time high there and to see an all time high from the gold miners as well. Junior miners have been performing well, but we really look for that group to outperform to tell us when, you know, we might look to take some profits, but we might just keep riding this one higher. So it’s exactly what, what we want to see from the group. And we do remain extremely bullish here. Silver now at $44.30 an ounce flat here on the day. And after hours. Copper just below its highest level since late July after we saw that sell off now at $4.65 a pound. Oil now down 710 of 1% at $61.90 a barrel.

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And finally here for today, crypto, which I talked about briefly on the show today while it is down on the Day, we remain extremely bullish here. We’re at 112,000 a bitcoin, just shy of 113,000 of bitcoin. And there really is no greater supply and demand story right now for this still emerging asset class. You know, if you look at the total market cap versus something like gold, we’ll see if it gets there one day. We think it could have the potential to do so. Um, but it’s tough to replace, you know, the world’s oldest currency in gold. But again, incredibly exciting. You know, people, you know, made fun of us for years for even recommending it.

And we still see this as it’s not too late to get into this asset. You’ve seen it go from, you know, 10,000, 20,000, 50,000, 75, over a hundred. And you miss this move, you know, it’s okay. There’s still a long way to run for bitcoin here as well. So, folks, that’s all that we have time for here today. Please be sure to subscribe to receive the VRA podcast every day at the market close. You can sign up@vraletter.com, click the podcast link at the top. You’ll see the sign up link in the episodes as well.

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So come and join us there. If you’re not already with us as a VRA member, why not? Cost you nothing. 14 day free trial going on right now as at the same website, vraletter.com. so we hope that you’ll come and join us and as always, send any questions in as well to support@vrainsider.com. we’re here to help.

That’s what we love doing. We want to help make you money in the market. We want to help you crush Mr. Market and fully fund your retirement account. That’s our goal here day in and day out. So with that said, thanks again for being here with us. I’ll see you back here tomorrow for the close.