In today's episode, Kip dives into the market decline to close out the month of October, discussing the heightened concerns surrounding the upcoming election and its potential impact on the market. He also breaks down recent earnings from tech giants like Meta, Microsoft, Intel, Amazon, and Apple and what their impressive numbers mean for the early stages of the AI trade. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Thursday afternoon everyone. Kip Herriage here with the Daily VRA Investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Gonna get right to it today. Got somewhere to be in about 20 minutes. So let’s get to the high notes today. Had a big decline today.

Gonna talk about that. What we think is behind it, because it was not. It was not trust. Tyler and I just noticed in detail, as we did yesterday following the earnings results from Meta and from. Oh my God. I draw a blank on the Microsoft, of course. And then today we got earnings from Intel, Amazon, Apple. Yesterday the supposedly Meta and Microsoft disappointed on their earnings.

[00:00:44]:
They did not. Okay, today we had. The reason is that this AI trade is so early. This is so early. They put up huge numbers, okay, huge numbers that any other environment would be viewed as. This company is rocking and rolling, but the expectations, right, are built into it. So if you don’t get a beat times 20%, a beat times 30%, they sell the stock off. Of course, it’s also the real reason folks is it’s October, last day of October.

We didn’t have an October surprise. The market went up pretty much the entire month until today. And so now what happened? We got rumors of election concerns. This is what’s happening here. The vix today up 14%. I’m actually surprised it wasn’t up more than that. And I covered this bit on members podcast this morning. But you know, a couple things happened over the last week and last night, it may seem minor, but everyone’s talking about this ABC affiliate in Philadelphia or Pennsylvania had a chiron at the bottom of the screen that said election results and had Kamala winning, beating Trump by 2% in the state of Pennsylvania.

And everybody’s like, what’s going on? Is that a psyop? But also last week this story’s been percolating now kind of coming to the to a head here, kind of an inside baseball story. Matt Taibbi broke this yesterday. We talked about it with you last week where a division a scummy part of Department of Homeland Security, DHS and made an announcement that they’re having a cyber technology test in Atlanta. And on the day of the election, if you remember 9 11, we talked about this last week, if you remember 9 11, it just so happened that on 911 there were all these terrorist drills that NORAD was having. So when these planes started flying into buildings, there were employees that said they did not that they thought it was a test, they thought it was part of the Drill. So you know, many people are putting two and two together. Okay, what is going to, what is going to happen? What nefarious action are they going to try to pull this election? And it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand the fears of what is. Forget Democrats, it’s the state capital S.

[00:03:10]:
What is the state going to do this time to try to keep Trump out of office? And now, you know, we’re down to five and a half days before the election. So is that going to be the October surprise that spreads into November again? You know we’re not, we believe in putting facts together. Sometimes it sounds like conspiracy, conspiracy theory. But you know what, we’ve been right. You know, conspiracy theorists are really the only ones that have been consistently right since 9 11. But we go where the facts are. And that’s what the concern is here today, folks, concerns about what’s going to happen in the election. Because even if the Dems lose, will they leave? Remember this party and the state backed party is all about projection.

They accuse the other guys of what they’re actually doing. What did they accuse Trump of doing? They’ve accused Trump of that he’s going to use the military against Americans. Well the Democrats just passed that. They just passed it, just passed that bill that, that’s something they can do now. What else have they accused Trump of saying he was not going to, if he loses, he won’t lose off leave office. Right. There’ll be a true insurrection and he’ll stay. And so these are, you know, for people to understand how this, this faction of our deep state government works.

You know, these are the concerns that people that are in the know believe that something here, something could happen here that would again you can imagine if something terrible happens. They’ve already tried to kill Trump twice. If something happens in the next five and a half days, that would not be good news to the stock market. Do we know? No, of course we don’t know. But I’m telling you that’s what happened today. A couple of earnings reports that were fantastic got spun as negative as the reason for the market being down. And so we did close down today sharply. Nasdaq down 512 points.

[00:05:07]:
That’s down 2.7%. Dow Jones down 9/10 of 1%. SV00 down 1.9%. And small caps was 2000 down 1.7%. And again the VIX, the volatility or fear index up 14% on the day. Rates also spiked a little higher today on a bit of hot inflation data. Our view remains that the inflation story is behind us. Our view remains that a strong dollar is not a concern.

Matter of fact, take a look at a two year chart. You’ll see the dollar is in a significant bear market. So we’re not concerned about those things. Our concern is around the election because there’s nothing that these, you almost have to think like, like an evil madman to think what this, this Democrat party really, the state backing them might do. That’s what Todd and I believe. That’s what our instincts are telling us. That’s what this decline is about. And it’ll be interesting tomorrow, see what happens int we intel earnings.

Amazon earnings app earnings just hit. All right, let’s take each one. Intel, which has been one of the worst chip stocks there is. Well, guess what, intel is trading higher by 12% on their earnings news. They’re also a buyout candidate. Amazon was down early in the day, now up 8% post earnings and Apple is now up on the day post earnings above what is about 4.5%. So these are good earnings. Again, the key to the, to these tech earnings is that we are in the early, early innings of the innovation revolution.

[00:06:42]:
These tech companies have now the 10 largest tech companies in America just this year have reinvested more than $150 billion back into their own companies. Unprecedented. It’s never happened before. That is not a scenario where you have a problem with AI and with growth from this brand new growth industry. Right? So look, we got a, we’re going into yesterday’s earnings markets are a little bit of no man’s land. We really didn’t get overbought, not heavily or extreme overbought, but we also never got oversold. Just, just a bit below, just a bit above, excuse me, it being normal overbought levels. And we also saw that the fear and greed index, if you remember last week it ticked back up to extreme fear.

Well guess what? Today collapse fear greed index now is down to 44 in greed territory. This is the kind of action that happens early in a bull market because people still don’t believe it, they’re still doubters. These are the kind of shakeouts that are very, very bullish for new money coming in and new buyers. And that is us. We still love the semis here, we still love tech here. These are the, these are the groups that should be owned into guess what? Because starting tomorrow, guess what happens tomorrow. We enter the best three months of the year from seasonality point of view and again we are buyers on this debt. Again we’re a little nervous about the election.

We’d be lying if we didn’t say we were because we are. Because again, you can’t put anything past these, I guess, deep state artists. But they’re pretty evil. And we’re very hopeful that Trump is going to win. And then we know it’s going to happen. The stock market is going to soar, the economy is going to rock and roll. And that’s the, that’s what we believe the outcome is going to be. Knock on wood.

[00:08:35]:
That’s what we’re all hoping for. Okay, take a look under the hood today. The internals were not as bad as you might think they would be. Nasdaq was a 3 to 1 negative advanced decline NYSE only 2 to 1 negative. A volume which was 2 to 1 negative on Nasdaq and 3 to 1 negative NYSE. And we did have for the first time since the August 5th lows, we had more stocks hitting a 52 week low than 52 week high. But the difference is only by 70 issues. No damage done there at all in our sector watch today.

There we go. Not a pretty picture here. We had about 11 SPF 100 sectors. We had nine finished lower, two finished higher. LED to the downside by again, technology down sharply today, down three and a half percent. Consumer discretionary down 1.8% to the upside. Utilities and energy both slightly higher on the day in a commodity watch. And again, this is a, this is when you know everything must go.

Okay. Gold today down $43 an ounce. That’s down one and a half percent. But take a look at the chart of gold. Look at our very momentum oscillators and you’ll see what we see. Gold is an extreme overbought on steroids. Had an amazing move that’s been up almost every day. New all time highs.

[00:09:50]:
Right. But it also hit extremely bottom. Steroids. That is a recipe for something bad happening. So again, a liquidation a bit today across the board essentially in the markets. Also impacting gold. We think it’s a technical sell off. Again, we’re not ready to jump back in yet and start being aggressive buyers.

But the miners are a different story. I’ll cover that more in just a moment. Again, gold today down 1.5%. 2757 an ounce. Just remarkable after hitting $2800 an ounce yesterday for the first time. Silver down 3.6% always gets hit harder. It’s late to rally and then it gets hit harder when the markets have a shakeout. That’s what happened today.

Textbook there. Silver again down A$28 an ounce at 32.83. Copper up on the day just barely. But it was up on the day of 10 cents a pound at $4.36 a pound. Crude oil today rebounding today up. Get this right. Yes. Up 2.7% today, up $1.87 a barrel to 7,048.

[00:10:54]:
And finally Bitcoin also again, this is a liquidation day. It impacts all assets. It did again for bitcoin. Bitcoin down 2.2% of the day. Last 70,237. Remember bitcoin just was it yesterday? Yeah, it was yesterday. Bitcoin got within $200 of an all time high. And now again a little bit of a sell off.

An overall sell off. We are buyers on this dip in bitcoin. Our year and price target remains 100,000 plus. And our two to four year cycle high estimate is for 250,000 in Bitcoin. Essentially anytime it dips, it’s a buy depending on what your time horizon is. All right folks, that’s it for today. Hey, I hope you had a good day and even better night. We’ll see you back again tomorrow after the close.